Dr. Leif Svalgaard advises us of this paper via email. Apparently some people want to ring the “cosmic dinner bell” by broadcasting powerful radio transmissions to get the attention of possible extra-terrestrial civilizations. This paper sums up the argument.
The Very Large Array (VLA) of radio telescopes at night.
Abstract:
There is an ongoing debate pertaining to the question of whether Earth should initiate intentional and powerful radio transmissions to putative extra-terrestrial (ET) civilizations in the hope of attracting ET’s attention. This practice is known as METI (Messaging to ET Intelligence) or Active SETI. The debate has recently taken on a sense of urgency, as additional proponents have announced their intention to commence de novo transmissions as soon as they become funded and acquire the needed time on a powerful transmitter such as Arecibo. Arguments in favor of METI are reviewed. It is concluded that METI is unwise, unscientific, potentially catastrophic, and unethical.
INTRODUCTION
In the medical sciences, proposed experiments must pass ethics review boards. Some experiments are simply too dangerous or unethical to be performed, certainly not just on one’s own lonely say-so. We do not clone humans; we do not conduct table top experiments with smallpox; and we no longer inject human subjects with pathogens in order to trace the course of a disease or to see how long it might take for subjects to die. Though a commonplace in medical research, astronomers face no such ethical reviews, since theirs is normally an observational science only. When it comes to METI (Messaging to ET Intelligence, also called or Active SETI), which is not observational but manipulative, and on which may hinge the very fate of the world, perhaps they should.
Do space aliens present a clear and present danger and, if so, is there anything we can do about it? There is not one scintilla of credible evidence that Earth has ever been visited by space aliens, much less that aliens have sought to do damage to the Earth. However, extraterrestrials (ET), if they exist, may soon learn that Earth harbors technologically advancing life forms, and that may change everything. Our electromagnetic (EM) emissions leave Earth at the speed of light. EM that left Earth in 1930 has already swept over approximately the nearest 7,000 stars.
That said, Earth’s EM leakage is either very weak, not pointed at nearby stars, or both. Further, the Earth grows quieter annually as more information is transmitted via cable, the Internet, and satellites rather than terrestrially over the air. Unless ET’s receivers are both powerful and omnidirectional, they will not detect us.
ET’s receivers could be omni-directional, but unable to pick up a signal so weak as the proverbial I Love Lucy. For example, the gigantic Arecibo radio telescope could not detect terrestrial TV transmissions, if broadcast from the distance of our nearest neighboring stars. Alternatively, an ET receiver could be very powerful, but it might take millennia for it to get around to slewing in our direction, given the large number of potential targets. By the time Earth returns into ET’s crosshairs for a routine check in, we might have gone silent.
The first modern SETI search was conducted by Frank Drake in 1960 [1]. From that date until today, there has been no agreed upon detection of an alien signal. Some are now arguing that since so much time has elapsed without success, it is time to announce ourselves to ET by using our most powerful radio telescopes as transmitters in order to proactively send our signals to Earth’s nearest stars in an effort to attract ET’s attention. Arecibo, for instance, is so powerful that, when used as a transmitter, its signal is potentially capable of being detected at vast interstellar distances.
A new consideration of the METI debate assumes some urgency at this time. When the SETI Institute (SI) rejected a proposal from Vakoch and Shostak to initiate immediate high power radio transmissions directed to Earth’s neighboring stars, Vakoch founded another organization, METI International [2, 3], with the same intent [4, 5]. Fearing a gathering storm, a cohort of SETI scientists and thinkers issued a statement in opposition to METI in February, 2015 [6]. John Gertz
The current paper will further consider the arguments of METI’s proponents (METI-ists) and opponents.
…
CONCLUSIONS
Whenever one hears a “scientist” assert that ET must be altruistic, or that ET surely knows we are here, or that the closet ET civilization is at least x LY away, ask to see the data set on which they base their conclusions. As of today, no such data set exists. In the absence of any evidence whatsoever, whether one believes that the extraterrestrial civilization we might first encounter will be benign, in the fashion of Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind, or ET, or malicious, as in Ridley Scott’s Alien, or robotic, or something else entirely is strictly a matter of one’s personal taste. SETI experiments seek to learn what actually resides or lurks out there in the universe. METI plays Russian roulette without even knowing how many bullets are in the chamber.
It would be wiser to listen for at least decades if not centuries or longer before we initiate intentional interstellar transmissions, and allow all of mankind a voice in that decision. The power of SETI has grown exponentially with Moore’s Law, better instruments, better search strategies, and now thanks to Milner’s visionary investment, Reviewing METI: A Critical Analysis of the Arguments meaningful funding. The advances are so profound that it is reasonable to say that the SETI of the next 50 years will be many orders of magnitude more powerful than the SETI of the last 50 years.
Shostak, perhaps METI’s most articulate proponent, knows this and has widely predicted that we will achieve Contact within the next two decades. So why can he and his fellow METI-ists not wait at least until then before initiating transmissions?
A METI experiment based on an actual methodology that includes a plan to receive ET’s reply, might leave some to call that method madness, but at least it would qualify as actual science. Sending a message without a practical plan in place to receive a return message, leads to the conclusion that METI transmissions are like a Hail Mary, they have more in common with a faith based religion than with science. METI-ists implicitly believe that ET is omniscient (they know we are here even though our leakage is trivial); all good (ET must be altruistically interested in our welfare); and omnipotent (even though we have made no provision to receive their return message, they will make themselves known to us somehow). It is fair to ask that METI- ists not impose their religion on the rest of us.
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Ed Zuiderwijk
May 21, 2016 7:56 am
Any alien species of interest is technologically savvy, and, almost by definition, more advanced than we are. And hostile, because continuously in need of resources. Which we advertise by broadcasting our presence.
We would also have to imagine faster than light travel is a possibility. This would imo not be possible for meat bag biological beings with organs and such.
That leaves thinking bacteria and machines.
Neither appeal to be hahaha
Bruce Cobb
May 21, 2016 8:17 am
If we just broadcast the tones “do-mi-do-do-so” continually, we’ll blend in. Problem solved.
Ed Zuiderwijk
May 21, 2016 9:01 am
The Hungarian physicist Leon Szilard once replied when asked about the existence of aliens that they don’t exist because the good Lord would not make the same mistake twice.
On another occasion his position had changed: they do exist and they are already here; they call themselves Hungarians.
Some of their scientific jocularly colleagues conjectured that the brilliant Hungarian Jews involved in early nuclear research were actually space aliens, to include Szilard, Teller and especially v. Neumann. The joke was that they selected Hungary so that no one else could understand what they said.
One might think that, given our rate of advancement w/discovering planets and prb’ly being able to detect atmospheric temps, water and oxygen content in the not-too-distant future, that much-advanced intelligent life (that MIGHT be able to travel here) would already at least suspect Earth has life. And oxygen has been present in Earth’s atmosphere a very long time. If they know that much & are curious, they might have been zeroing in on Earth for radio signals for some time (but obviously would have to be within 75 LYs to detect any now). So I’m not sure sending out radio signals is that much of a risk.
But maybe it’s prudent to be on the safe side…..
After a lifetime at sea, spending countless times gazing out over a black ocean about midnight or any other time, never saw anything except the sea. It might be imagined that the cluster of lights which constitutes a modern cargo ship at night in the ocean, might well attract attention, but never in my ships. There must be countless thousands of ex-seafarers such as myself, will tell the same story. Nothing out there except us.
Before WW I I there was nobody keeping track. And nobody was looking. The reason they started looking was to see what the enemy had built. What was it, and where was it. Surprise us once, but hopefully not twice. The trained pilots during WW I I even came up with a name for them, Foo Fighters. You think the detailed descriptions were a bunch of people’s imaginations?
Almost everybody is looking now. Who doesn’t want to see an alien ship?
I witnessed a UFO in 1967, when I was 15. A friend was flying a kite really high. We saw a metallic disc shaped object come into view. It came to a stop above the kite. There was no noise so it couldn’t have been a helicopter. It stayed there for about 15 minutes. It then moved off on a vector, abruptly changed direction 90 degrees and shot off in an upward track at an unbelievable rate of speed out of sight. I won’t speculate as to its origins but I know what we saw.
1) The right answer is that we do not know who is out there; we are not in need of anyone’s assistance; and even the best known possible outcome (saintly ET) does nothing for us that we can’t do ourselves. So why attract attention to ourselves?
2) How many horror/disaster movie scenes start with the missing ET? “It’s quiet here, too quiet”…
3) if Shostak et al want to try this, they should first be made to spend two weeks or so on an unarmed walking tour of the Bekka valley or some similar place where you can’t tell the uninterested from the enemy and doing anything that attracts attention can get you killed.
Art
May 21, 2016 12:15 pm
“METI is unwise, unscientific, potentially catastrophic, and unethical.”
He forgot silly.
Most here, myself included, seem to believe any other sentient life forms, if they exist, would be carnivorous, imperialistic, aggressive, etc. Perhaps we are merely projecting from our own backgrounds and all that is required for inclusion in the great society of the universe is to pass the simple test of intelligent contact. For those of us believing in good and evil, the concept of an entire spectrum of good to evil other beings also becomes a possibility. If the universe, as some believe, is indeed infinite, then all possibilities naturally emerge, time amd distance not withstanding.
wws
May 21, 2016 1:10 pm
Even if there were some species out there capable of listening to and deciphering our message, it takes an incredible amount of arrogance on our part to think that they would be interested in anything we have to say.
“oh look, grrellzorb, the chimps are trying to get our attention again!!!”
I was going to say Neanderthals, but “chimps” is probably closer to the truth.
Johann Wundersamer
May 21, 2016 3:51 pm
Yes,
It would be wiser to listen for at least decades if not centuries or longer before we initiate intentional interstellar transmissions, and allow all of mankind a voice in that decision.
Allen63
May 21, 2016 4:53 pm
NO to “sending up a flair” for possible aliens to see.
There are no immediate benefits and it may get us killed off as a species. We should not do it unless we are “militarily powerful enough” to deal with an interstellar enemy (a few hundred years or more are yet required).
That being said. My personal belief (based on some study) is that advanced life in other star systems is far, far less common than “simple math” would have us believe (perhaps virtually non-existent for practical purposes). Probably, no advanced civilization would see our “flair”. Thus, on that basis, the attempt to make contact is a waste of money.
Dr. Strangelove
May 21, 2016 8:50 pm
Astronomers at Harvard propose using the James Webb space telescope to look for industrial pollution such as hairspray CFC in exoplanets as a sure sign of intelligent life. This is premised on the universal dictum – I pollute, therefore I am. Apparently ET is not a big fan of Greenpeace.
HARRY GALE
May 21, 2016 9:16 pm
THERE IS NOBODY OUT THERE, at least near our level of advancement, or lack thereof.
Be Happy.
There is an island off the coast of Long Island NY called Plum Island. I have no intention or desire to ever visit that place, ever. This planet probably has a sign somewhere that says ” sick, keep out”.
Rob
May 22, 2016 3:04 am
We can’t even get along with ourselves. Why in the hell would we “invite” trouble?
In summary, 97% of climate scientists who participated in the survey believe the idea is either:
a) Horribly stupid
b) A waste of time and money
Possibly both.
psi2
May 22, 2016 5:12 am
One of my simple litmus tests for the credibility of an argument as complex as this one is to look for this sort of statement:
“There is not one scintilla of credible evidence that Earth has ever been visited by space aliens.”
I have no horse in this race, being totally neutral on the question of whether the planet has or has not been visited by “space aliens.” But this statement is a classic use of gratuitous hyperbole that makes me suspect a rather narrow field of vision on the part of the speaker. It depends on the offhand rejection of thousands of eyewitness accounts that at present have not been adequately explained by other means. I can understand, Anthony, why it would be ideologically appropriate for you to take a highly cautious position on controversies outside of your primary focus, but really if I was advising you on what to leave out of your article, I would start with that sentence. It does no good at all and only makes you look contentiously narrow minded.
This fear of “exposing” us to aliens is completely irrational for two simple reasons:
1. Any advanced civilization in a few a hundred light years radius from us already knows about us. With our current technology we are now able to detect planets around stars near us and a plan has been suggested to place two observatories at two Lagrange points around Earth that would be able to detect continents on Earth like planets. Any advanced civilization would already have developed such technology to a point where they can for example see the lights of Earth’s biggest cities and thus know that there is intelligent life here.
I post reason 2 in a separate post in case the moderators don’t like it.
Here is reason number 2:
2. Despite all the ridicule and scoffing by main stream science the alien presence on Earth is well establised, the evidence is overwhelming. Anybody doubting this claim should do some serious reading.
Ignorance is the mother of all prejudice and preconception.
If I were an alien from a civilization advanced enough to travel here from hundreds, or thousands, or millions of light years away, I think we would have the technical ability to make perfect copies of humans that are indistinguishable from other humans. They could spy on everything. You could be married to one. And the President…
Anyway, there is a hierarchy in almost all social animals, from humans, to chimps, to dogs, to chickens, etc. Why wouldn’t that be the case in other places?
If there’s a social hierarchy in the galaxy, then there’s a top dog somewhere. Or a headman; a chicken that rules the roost. In other words, there’s either a ruler, or a galactic society that has rules. Maybe one rule is to leave the feral planets alone. Because if they’re out there and they wanted to march in with a parade of aliens beating drums and playing calliope music, who could stop them?
So they’re either out there but precluded for some reason from showing themselves, or we’re alone, and lots of folks are having visual hallucinations. Or maybe there’s another reason that no one has thought of.
Thinking about this gets me all wound up and nervous. Fortunately, I have a cure.
John Whitman
May 22, 2016 4:44 pm
The lead post cited a paper’s conclusion that a signal to space informing that we exist on Earth is not scientifically sound or morally sound.
Of course, any intelligent aliens will have concluded the same and not sent signals out for us (or any other intelligent life forms in the universe) to detect.
So, by that logic then SETI is a total waste of resources.
John
Alien civilizations 5 billion years old would know they are more advanced than civilizations in star systems less than 5 billion years old, like our sun. They would target young stars. We can also listen for their local radio broadcast.
gnomish
May 22, 2016 5:10 pm
oh, sometimes we fly in on weekends just to pull pranks like probing a few southerners. drives em crazy. 🙂
other times we might visit the lava falls of mogadan and flip sodium pellets the rain-gulls.
but yeah- mostly we sit around planniing how to take over a planet full of monkeys and make them our slaves we mastered matter but we need your muscles. 🙂 can’t live without things that produce waste and need constant maintenance and supervision.
besides, monkeys are so much better at satellite construction than our astrobots… right.
Marlow Metcalf
May 22, 2016 6:02 pm
I must be way out of date. I thought that cosmic radiation would beat our radio ways into static before they arrived at the next star.
VLF radio waves are reflected in the ionosphere. Interstellar gas even when ionized is not dense enough to reflect VLF. We use UHF waves to communicate with Voyager 1 which is now in interstellar space.
Any alien species of interest is technologically savvy, and, almost by definition, more advanced than we are. And hostile, because continuously in need of resources. Which we advertise by broadcasting our presence.
We would also have to imagine faster than light travel is a possibility. This would imo not be possible for meat bag biological beings with organs and such.
That leaves thinking bacteria and machines.
Neither appeal to be hahaha
If we just broadcast the tones “do-mi-do-do-so” continually, we’ll blend in. Problem solved.
The Hungarian physicist Leon Szilard once replied when asked about the existence of aliens that they don’t exist because the good Lord would not make the same mistake twice.
On another occasion his position had changed: they do exist and they are already here; they call themselves Hungarians.
Some of their scientific jocularly colleagues conjectured that the brilliant Hungarian Jews involved in early nuclear research were actually space aliens, to include Szilard, Teller and especially v. Neumann. The joke was that they selected Hungary so that no one else could understand what they said.
Yep, that figures 🙂
Sorry for the adverb in the wrong place.
I say go ahead and transmit. We’ve already covered our a$$es.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/30/precautionary-principle-memo-ready-for-transmission/
One might think that, given our rate of advancement w/discovering planets and prb’ly being able to detect atmospheric temps, water and oxygen content in the not-too-distant future, that much-advanced intelligent life (that MIGHT be able to travel here) would already at least suspect Earth has life. And oxygen has been present in Earth’s atmosphere a very long time. If they know that much & are curious, they might have been zeroing in on Earth for radio signals for some time (but obviously would have to be within 75 LYs to detect any now). So I’m not sure sending out radio signals is that much of a risk.
But maybe it’s prudent to be on the safe side…..
After a lifetime at sea, spending countless times gazing out over a black ocean about midnight or any other time, never saw anything except the sea. It might be imagined that the cluster of lights which constitutes a modern cargo ship at night in the ocean, might well attract attention, but never in my ships. There must be countless thousands of ex-seafarers such as myself, will tell the same story. Nothing out there except us.
Before WW I I there was nobody keeping track. And nobody was looking. The reason they started looking was to see what the enemy had built. What was it, and where was it. Surprise us once, but hopefully not twice. The trained pilots during WW I I even came up with a name for them, Foo Fighters. You think the detailed descriptions were a bunch of people’s imaginations?
Almost everybody is looking now. Who doesn’t want to see an alien ship?
I witnessed a UFO in 1967, when I was 15. A friend was flying a kite really high. We saw a metallic disc shaped object come into view. It came to a stop above the kite. There was no noise so it couldn’t have been a helicopter. It stayed there for about 15 minutes. It then moved off on a vector, abruptly changed direction 90 degrees and shot off in an upward track at an unbelievable rate of speed out of sight. I won’t speculate as to its origins but I know what we saw.
1) The right answer is that we do not know who is out there; we are not in need of anyone’s assistance; and even the best known possible outcome (saintly ET) does nothing for us that we can’t do ourselves. So why attract attention to ourselves?
2) How many horror/disaster movie scenes start with the missing ET? “It’s quiet here, too quiet”…
3) if Shostak et al want to try this, they should first be made to spend two weeks or so on an unarmed walking tour of the Bekka valley or some similar place where you can’t tell the uninterested from the enemy and doing anything that attracts attention can get you killed.
“METI is unwise, unscientific, potentially catastrophic, and unethical.”
He forgot silly.
If transmitting of information represents silly idea then SETI is silly idea, too. See “Searching for Extraterrestrial Idiots?” at http://www.cplire.ru/html/ra&sr/irm/idiots.html
Most here, myself included, seem to believe any other sentient life forms, if they exist, would be carnivorous, imperialistic, aggressive, etc. Perhaps we are merely projecting from our own backgrounds and all that is required for inclusion in the great society of the universe is to pass the simple test of intelligent contact. For those of us believing in good and evil, the concept of an entire spectrum of good to evil other beings also becomes a possibility. If the universe, as some believe, is indeed infinite, then all possibilities naturally emerge, time amd distance not withstanding.
Even if there were some species out there capable of listening to and deciphering our message, it takes an incredible amount of arrogance on our part to think that they would be interested in anything we have to say.
“oh look, grrellzorb, the chimps are trying to get our attention again!!!”
I was going to say Neanderthals, but “chimps” is probably closer to the truth.
Yes,
It would be wiser to listen for at least decades if not centuries or longer before we initiate intentional interstellar transmissions, and allow all of mankind a voice in that decision.
NO to “sending up a flair” for possible aliens to see.
There are no immediate benefits and it may get us killed off as a species. We should not do it unless we are “militarily powerful enough” to deal with an interstellar enemy (a few hundred years or more are yet required).
That being said. My personal belief (based on some study) is that advanced life in other star systems is far, far less common than “simple math” would have us believe (perhaps virtually non-existent for practical purposes). Probably, no advanced civilization would see our “flair”. Thus, on that basis, the attempt to make contact is a waste of money.
Astronomers at Harvard propose using the James Webb space telescope to look for industrial pollution such as hairspray CFC in exoplanets as a sure sign of intelligent life. This is premised on the universal dictum – I pollute, therefore I am. Apparently ET is not a big fan of Greenpeace.
THERE IS NOBODY OUT THERE, at least near our level of advancement, or lack thereof.
Be Happy.
There is an island off the coast of Long Island NY called Plum Island. I have no intention or desire to ever visit that place, ever. This planet probably has a sign somewhere that says ” sick, keep out”.
We can’t even get along with ourselves. Why in the hell would we “invite” trouble?
We are — every one of us — living inside Jena Malone’s eye.
It’s a fine place to be.
In summary, 97% of climate scientists who participated in the survey believe the idea is either:
a) Horribly stupid
b) A waste of time and money
Possibly both.
One of my simple litmus tests for the credibility of an argument as complex as this one is to look for this sort of statement:
“There is not one scintilla of credible evidence that Earth has ever been visited by space aliens.”
I have no horse in this race, being totally neutral on the question of whether the planet has or has not been visited by “space aliens.” But this statement is a classic use of gratuitous hyperbole that makes me suspect a rather narrow field of vision on the part of the speaker. It depends on the offhand rejection of thousands of eyewitness accounts that at present have not been adequately explained by other means. I can understand, Anthony, why it would be ideologically appropriate for you to take a highly cautious position on controversies outside of your primary focus, but really if I was advising you on what to leave out of your article, I would start with that sentence. It does no good at all and only makes you look contentiously narrow minded.
This fear of “exposing” us to aliens is completely irrational for two simple reasons:
1. Any advanced civilization in a few a hundred light years radius from us already knows about us. With our current technology we are now able to detect planets around stars near us and a plan has been suggested to place two observatories at two Lagrange points around Earth that would be able to detect continents on Earth like planets. Any advanced civilization would already have developed such technology to a point where they can for example see the lights of Earth’s biggest cities and thus know that there is intelligent life here.
I post reason 2 in a separate post in case the moderators don’t like it.
Here is reason number 2:
2. Despite all the ridicule and scoffing by main stream science the alien presence on Earth is well establised, the evidence is overwhelming. Anybody doubting this claim should do some serious reading.
Ignorance is the mother of all prejudice and preconception.
If I were an alien from a civilization advanced enough to travel here from hundreds, or thousands, or millions of light years away, I think we would have the technical ability to make perfect copies of humans that are indistinguishable from other humans. They could spy on everything. You could be married to one. And the President…
Anyway, there is a hierarchy in almost all social animals, from humans, to chimps, to dogs, to chickens, etc. Why wouldn’t that be the case in other places?
If there’s a social hierarchy in the galaxy, then there’s a top dog somewhere. Or a headman; a chicken that rules the roost. In other words, there’s either a ruler, or a galactic society that has rules. Maybe one rule is to leave the feral planets alone. Because if they’re out there and they wanted to march in with a parade of aliens beating drums and playing calliope music, who could stop them?
So they’re either out there but precluded for some reason from showing themselves, or we’re alone, and lots of folks are having visual hallucinations. Or maybe there’s another reason that no one has thought of.
Thinking about this gets me all wound up and nervous. Fortunately, I have a cure.
The lead post cited a paper’s conclusion that a signal to space informing that we exist on Earth is not scientifically sound or morally sound.
Of course, any intelligent aliens will have concluded the same and not sent signals out for us (or any other intelligent life forms in the universe) to detect.
So, by that logic then SETI is a total waste of resources.
John
Good point. Unless they are hopelessly naive.
Gabro on May 22, 2016 at 4:57 pm
– – – – – – –
Gabor,
Somehow, naivety seems implausible.
John
You’re right. Of course. But can’t rule it out.
There might be some planet on which high intelligence could evolve without bloody competition.
Science fiction. Kind of like the naive but intelligent beings in the movie “Galaxy Quest”.
Alien civilizations 5 billion years old would know they are more advanced than civilizations in star systems less than 5 billion years old, like our sun. They would target young stars. We can also listen for their local radio broadcast.
oh, sometimes we fly in on weekends just to pull pranks like probing a few southerners. drives em crazy. 🙂
other times we might visit the lava falls of mogadan and flip sodium pellets the rain-gulls.
but yeah- mostly we sit around planniing how to take over a planet full of monkeys and make them our slaves we mastered matter but we need your muscles. 🙂 can’t live without things that produce waste and need constant maintenance and supervision.
besides, monkeys are so much better at satellite construction than our astrobots… right.
I must be way out of date. I thought that cosmic radiation would beat our radio ways into static before they arrived at the next star.
VLF radio waves are reflected in the ionosphere. Interstellar gas even when ionized is not dense enough to reflect VLF. We use UHF waves to communicate with Voyager 1 which is now in interstellar space.