Dr. Leif Svalgaard advises us of this paper via email. Apparently some people want to ring the “cosmic dinner bell” by broadcasting powerful radio transmissions to get the attention of possible extra-terrestrial civilizations. This paper sums up the argument.
The Very Large Array (VLA) of radio telescopes at night.
Abstract:
There is an ongoing debate pertaining to the question of whether Earth should initiate intentional and powerful radio transmissions to putative extra-terrestrial (ET) civilizations in the hope of attracting ET’s attention. This practice is known as METI (Messaging to ET Intelligence) or Active SETI. The debate has recently taken on a sense of urgency, as additional proponents have announced their intention to commence de novo transmissions as soon as they become funded and acquire the needed time on a powerful transmitter such as Arecibo. Arguments in favor of METI are reviewed. It is concluded that METI is unwise, unscientific, potentially catastrophic, and unethical.
INTRODUCTION
In the medical sciences, proposed experiments must pass ethics review boards. Some experiments are simply too dangerous or unethical to be performed, certainly not just on one’s own lonely say-so. We do not clone humans; we do not conduct table top experiments with smallpox; and we no longer inject human subjects with pathogens in order to trace the course of a disease or to see how long it might take for subjects to die. Though a commonplace in medical research, astronomers face no such ethical reviews, since theirs is normally an observational science only. When it comes to METI (Messaging to ET Intelligence, also called or Active SETI), which is not observational but manipulative, and on which may hinge the very fate of the world, perhaps they should.
Do space aliens present a clear and present danger and, if so, is there anything we can do about it? There is not one scintilla of credible evidence that Earth has ever been visited by space aliens, much less that aliens have sought to do damage to the Earth. However, extraterrestrials (ET), if they exist, may soon learn that Earth harbors technologically advancing life forms, and that may change everything. Our electromagnetic (EM) emissions leave Earth at the speed of light. EM that left Earth in 1930 has already swept over approximately the nearest 7,000 stars.
That said, Earth’s EM leakage is either very weak, not pointed at nearby stars, or both. Further, the Earth grows quieter annually as more information is transmitted via cable, the Internet, and satellites rather than terrestrially over the air. Unless ET’s receivers are both powerful and omnidirectional, they will not detect us.
ET’s receivers could be omni-directional, but unable to pick up a signal so weak as the proverbial I Love Lucy. For example, the gigantic Arecibo radio telescope could not detect terrestrial TV transmissions, if broadcast from the distance of our nearest neighboring stars. Alternatively, an ET receiver could be very powerful, but it might take millennia for it to get around to slewing in our direction, given the large number of potential targets. By the time Earth returns into ET’s crosshairs for a routine check in, we might have gone silent.
The first modern SETI search was conducted by Frank Drake in 1960 [1]. From that date until today, there has been no agreed upon detection of an alien signal. Some are now arguing that since so much time has elapsed without success, it is time to announce ourselves to ET by using our most powerful radio telescopes as transmitters in order to proactively send our signals to Earth’s nearest stars in an effort to attract ET’s attention. Arecibo, for instance, is so powerful that, when used as a transmitter, its signal is potentially capable of being detected at vast interstellar distances.
A new consideration of the METI debate assumes some urgency at this time. When the SETI Institute (SI) rejected a proposal from Vakoch and Shostak to initiate immediate high power radio transmissions directed to Earth’s neighboring stars, Vakoch founded another organization, METI International [2, 3], with the same intent [4, 5]. Fearing a gathering storm, a cohort of SETI scientists and thinkers issued a statement in opposition to METI in February, 2015 [6]. John Gertz
The current paper will further consider the arguments of METI’s proponents (METI-ists) and opponents.
…
CONCLUSIONS
Whenever one hears a “scientist” assert that ET must be altruistic, or that ET surely knows we are here, or that the closet ET civilization is at least x LY away, ask to see the data set on which they base their conclusions. As of today, no such data set exists. In the absence of any evidence whatsoever, whether one believes that the extraterrestrial civilization we might first encounter will be benign, in the fashion of Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind, or ET, or malicious, as in Ridley Scott’s Alien, or robotic, or something else entirely is strictly a matter of one’s personal taste. SETI experiments seek to learn what actually resides or lurks out there in the universe. METI plays Russian roulette without even knowing how many bullets are in the chamber.
It would be wiser to listen for at least decades if not centuries or longer before we initiate intentional interstellar transmissions, and allow all of mankind a voice in that decision. The power of SETI has grown exponentially with Moore’s Law, better instruments, better search strategies, and now thanks to Milner’s visionary investment, Reviewing METI: A Critical Analysis of the Arguments meaningful funding. The advances are so profound that it is reasonable to say that the SETI of the next 50 years will be many orders of magnitude more powerful than the SETI of the last 50 years.
Shostak, perhaps METI’s most articulate proponent, knows this and has widely predicted that we will achieve Contact within the next two decades. So why can he and his fellow METI-ists not wait at least until then before initiating transmissions?
A METI experiment based on an actual methodology that includes a plan to receive ET’s reply, might leave some to call that method madness, but at least it would qualify as actual science. Sending a message without a practical plan in place to receive a return message, leads to the conclusion that METI transmissions are like a Hail Mary, they have more in common with a faith based religion than with science. METI-ists implicitly believe that ET is omniscient (they know we are here even though our leakage is trivial); all good (ET must be altruistically interested in our welfare); and omnipotent (even though we have made no provision to receive their return message, they will make themselves known to us somehow). It is fair to ask that METI- ists not impose their religion on the rest of us.
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nc
May 20, 2016 7:44 pm
Maybe they might send missionaries, oops that did not go well in our past.
Anybody communicate with a Sasquatch yet?
asybot
May 20, 2016 9:56 pm
I find all the reactions on this topic really interesting, just a few years ago my wife and I had an interesting experience, we (without a doubt) saw for a few minutes a airborne craft that defied anything we had ever seen. We live close to an international airport, ( I grew up a few miles away from a NATO air-force base as a teenager) and have all kinds of experience in ID’ing planes choppers, seaplanes etc, we are also interested in astronomy, weather phenomena ( Have a Stev screen that does 2x daily obs for the government). This thing was nothing that we could explain, as my wife went back into the house to get a camera ( while I was watching this “craft” hoover above us at about 300 – 350 meters) and brought it out and tried to take pictures, this thing just up and went. After the heart rate went down ( about an hour later we each separately made drawings and wrote down description of the craft. They almost exactly the same. To this day we still have no idea what it might have been but my wife has spend a lot of time on the net and after weeding through all the usual hoopla we have found a few people that have seen and have a similar description of the same craft during the same time frame.
I realize that this will get derided but WE know what we saw was some thing radically different, after much thought we think it is probably something that uses a new type of propulsion in the line of anti gravity. ( I can already hear the laughter and the derision but I am sure of what we saw and 6 years later it still puzzles us but not in a negative way.)
No, no derision from me my friend, or from anybody else with an open mind. Unidentified flying objects are a fact, no question about it. You are in the good company of airline pilots, Belgian Air Force generals, air traffic controllers, corroborating radar recordings, etc etc.
Here is an interesting and credible report by the French government looking into the phenomenon: http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/sociopol_cometareport01.htm
My father had the unfortunate experience of having spent most of his military experience in WWII on the Russian front.
He said that it was common for them to see “silver discs” in the sky; particularly just before major offensives.
He/they thought that they were some kind of Russian secret weapon. From the interrigation of Russian prisoners, they learned that the Russians thought that they were German secret weapons.
asybot, could you give us a description of the UFO?
This UFO account seems to be one of the best to me. Hundreds of people saw this UFO, and I have seen tv specials done on it and the witnesses are just your average person, but also includes many police and other officials. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Lights
“Witnesses claim to have observed a huge V-shaped (several football field sized), coherently-moving dark UFO (stars would disappear behind the object and reappear as it passed by), producing no sound, and containing five spherical lights or possibly light-emitting engines. Fife Symington,[2] the governor at the time, was one witness to this incident. As governor he ridiculed the idea of alien origin,[3] but several years later he called the lights he saw “otherworldly” after admitting he saw a similar UFO.”
I’m not saying alien UFO’s are real, and I’m not saying they are not, but I would sure like to hear a logical explanation for this sighting.
Yours didn’t happen to be triangular in shape, did it? Completely silent? 🙂
“but I would sure like to hear a logical explanation for this sighting.”
I was on the road at the time of the Phx lights, I-10 coming back from Tuscon which skirts the back of South Mountain Park. The Phx lights were flares and from the perspective I had it was clear they were flares. They were at different heights, they fell at the same rate but were clearly released at different times AND they fell behind South Mountain. From the perspective of those in Phx, it would appear they were on a single plain, but behind South Mountain you could tell they weren’t. Now I can’t be sure to this day because those freaking flares were so bright–but I think there were men parachuting down too.
I can hear it now—“but the military said they weren’t doing any exercises that night”. I will counter with this, “since when has the military called the public about any maneuver they are doing? Especially in and around Phx.” Those that remember all the calls about the UFO in the skies that turned out to be a refueling drill can attest to that one. It hit all the public airwaves–“Don’t Panic Folks! That’s just a refueling plane you see!”
I grew up in Phx and Vegas and I can not tell you the amount of times I’ve been out in the desert riding–or on a desert road where I’ve come across some type of military drill. It happens more often than people think. Heck once while diving near Glen Canyon dam we saw a bunch of guys just cruz past us…wouldn’t have known they were there except we weren’t supposed to be there at the time. They were as surprised as we were. We waved, they waved and moved on.
So there is your explanation from a person that was on the road behind the largest feature in the Valley–they were flares and nothing more.
As if witnesses couldn’t tell the difference between flares and triangular objects blocking out starlight that, according to one observer, was bigger than a newspaper held at arms length. Sad how some will swallow anything the gov. tells them. In addition the objects were seen over a period of hours at different locations and apparently you weren’t, unluckily, in the right spot or time, but hey, you be the expert on others observations.
Jenn, there were two “incidents” in Phoenix. The later one were obviously military flares (perhaps done intentionally to confuse), but the earlier one (by 2 hrs) was pretty much right over the outskirts of Phoenix and looked completely different — a huge, low & slow-flying un-illuminated triangle. Don’t confuse the two.
Since we are all throwing in our two cents….
About two years ago, at around 11:30am on a summer weekday, I was about to get into my car parked in front of my house on Mt. Dandenong (Australia) when I glanced up.
Almost directly above me (bearing ~260, az ~70) was a circular silver object, convex on the top and bottom, but with vertical sides. While overall silver in color, the top and bottom were shiny, while the sides were matt. The top and bottom were featureless, but I could make out several evenly spaced vertical indentations in the sides that were visible to me.
The object was slowly moving north at a slow pace, against the ground wind which was from the NNW. It was absolutely silent.
The sky was absolutely clear, blue and cloudless, with no haze. As I was watching, the sun was behind my right shoulder, to the north of my position. There was no other aerial traffic visible to me at the time.
I watched it until it disappeared below the top of the northern treeline; a period of about five to seven minutes.
Since the sky was clear, I had no reference points, and therefore could not judge either its height or size; but when I held my fist at arm’s length its length it was about twice the width of my fist and its maximum thickness was about three finger thicknesses. The vertical sides were about one finger thickness thick.
Subsequently, I checked news reports but heard no mention of any other sightings.
@ur momisugly TA, May 21. No This was in bright daylight, to us we drew a shape that reminded me of one of those elevator capsules on the outside of a skyscraper , it looked glass enclosed for the top 2/3 with a solid bottom with 2 dark rings around the bottom part, it definitely carried 2 people that appeared to be standing up and wore dark sun glasses, or had large dark facial features. ( estimation of their elevation could be off it is hard to guess looking upwards it could have been closer than the 300 m we first thought. maybe as little as 175 -225 meters). I could see arms (2) on both “pilots” and they seemed to be moving controls on a surface in front of them. What struck me was the length of time it hovered, my wife had time to go back into the house for her camera but as soon as she returned and pointed the camera this thing just up and went. I am still not sure if there was an “after glow” but it’s speed was astounding. That is why I can really only think of anti gravity, anything else should have crushed anything biological. There was an event the following night with bright lights shining into our house that we never have been able to explain either all the angles of the lights were impossible from anything like car lights aircraft etc ( and this is the first time I have ever mentioned this to anyone else but the two of us it was frightening)
asybot, So your UFO was a small two-person vehicle. It’s amazing you got such a good look at the occupants. Were you using binoculars? Could you tell if they were looking at you?
The description you give is like a barrel-shaped vehicle with the long axis being vertical. I saw a video of a UFO over Mexico City (I think) that was barrel-shaped with the long axis being vertical, but it appeared to be all metallic and it was hard to judge its size. That’s the only barrel-shaped one I have ever seen or heard of.
Things like that make you wonder, don’t they. 🙂
TA, I guess the “vehicle” was about 20 -24 feet tall and ~ 8 feet in diameter ( like a blunt bullet shape), imagine the cockpit of a helicopter it is for me the best comparison to make we have a lot of those flying around us, The occupants were definitely looking at both of us. We are still not sure of the elevation it was at as I said looking up in the sky and the totally unusual shape and no noise just left us stunned and you are right it does make you wonder.
Two years ago I was flying four of us across the Grand Canyon at FL260. It was about noon in a typical bright, clear sky. My wife comes forward to tap me on the shoulder and points off to the SW where we all see a very large self illuminated billboard at our altitude. It was about the color pink that a ceramic burner gets when it is very hot. Brighter that the sky behind it. LA Center saw nothing on radar. Crisp rectilinear shape in the vertical plane that was apparently at an angle so it appeared trapezoidal as is turned and receded away. No way to judge size or distance, but it was certainly very large.
Same sort of thing happened to my friend,he was flying about 2500ft and was warned by Air Control about an unidentified object that was appearing and then dissapearing on Radar about ten mile away. He flew over to the location and was amazed to see a large flying cardboard box flapping around going up and down,opening and closing as thought it was stuck on top of an airjet.He said the aerobatics of it were amazing to watch.
Man Tran wrote: “It was about the color pink that a ceramic burner gets when it is very hot. Brighter that the sky behind it. LA Center saw nothing on radar. Crisp rectilinear shape in the vertical plane that was apparently at an angle so it appeared trapezoidal as is turned and receded away.”
That is a unique design description, AFAIK. Never heard or saw one described like that.
I’m not an advocate of UFO’s or a detractor, I just don’t know, but I do look at what is available, and I have noted that there are many different designs to UFO’s. Back in the 20th century, it was the classic saucer-shaped UFO, and then there was a variation of this design that looked more like a tophat than the classic saucer.
I have also seen barrel-shaped UFO’s (in Mexico, I believe) and lately the UFO’s seem to be triangular-shaped, as in the Phoenix sighting. And now we have Man Tran’s design.
Assuming we are being visited by alien beings, I wonder if each of these different designs represents a different alien civilization. 🙂
It’s an interesting subject, but as always, I’m skeptical first.
And one question I always have is: Why can’t we get some good pictures of these UFO objects!?
The slow-moving Phoenix triangle would seem to be a pretty good opportunity. But all we have are drawings.
Well, there are a whole lot more cameras available now, than there were in 1997, so maybe we will do better in the future.
TA: There were some good photos during the Belgium triangle UFO flap. However, of course, they were immediately attacked as fakes which is typical. But I do like the UK Ministry of Defense’s explanation in that “natural” plasma fields cause vivid hallucinations and psychological effects in witnesses which result in the sightings. So you can kinda see why more don’t come forward.
“UK Ministry of Defence report UAP in the UK Air Defence Region,[5] code named Project Condign and released to the public in 2006, draws several conclusions as to the origin of “black triangle” UFO sightings. Their researchers conclude that most, if not all, “black triangle” UFOs are formations of electrical plasma, the interaction of which creates mysterious energy fields that both refract light and produce vivid hallucinations in witnesses that are in close proximity. Further it suggests that “the majority, if not all, of the hitherto unexplained reports may well be due to atmospheric gaseous electrically charged buoyant plasmas” [6] which emit charged fields with the capability of inducing vivid hallucinations and psychological effects in witnesses” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_triangle_%28UFO%29#UK_Ministry_of_Defence_Report_Findings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_fireballs https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/20/the-morality-of-meti-should-we-broadcast-to-let-aliens-know-were-here/#comment-2219844
BFL wrote: “Further it suggests that “the majority, if not all, of the hitherto unexplained reports may well be due to atmospheric gaseous electrically charged buoyant plasmas” [6] which emit charged fields with the capability of inducing vivid hallucinations and psychological effects in witnesses”
I wonder if CO2 has anything to do with it? The Alarmists might be able to find an angle here.
Thanks for the picture of the triangular UFO.
The arrogance is stunning.
As if the ET’s would not already know everything about us.
If they are advanced enough to get here they will be advanced enough to detect us from afar and advanced enough to keep us oblivious to their presence should they choose to.
Why would those ET’s use an ancient mechanism (radio waves) for communication, one which is totally inadequate for interstellar communications?
This whole SETI and METI thing is the equivalent of Papua New Guinee bushmen trying to make first contact with western civilization by making smoke signals, and concluding there is no other intelligent life out there beyond the bush, based on the fact that they have looked for years but have never seen any smoke signals on the horizon…
Agree ti that Wijnand,
Given the cosmic timescales, it is very unlikely that we meet another intelligent life form just at the same level of technological development as we are. If we are able to make contact, they will probably be some millions of years ahead of us.
If such a civilization exists within the nearest 1000 LY, they already know we are here.
A METI could probably make a genuine new contact with a civilization more than 1000 LY away, but how interesting is that really? Send a message now, and may be receive an answer in more than 2000 years from now. Patience I a virtue, but this is too far.
I think the search for habitable extrasolar planets and signs of life by doing spectral analysis of the light passing through the atmosphere of those planets, is far more interesting.
Jan
Since we are marked as “Mostly Harmless” on the Galactic charts, I doubt that it will make a difference whether we broadcast or not. The Vogons won’t care.
Vogons are not sensitive to anything. That is why their poetry is the second worst in the Galaxy.
Barclay E MacDonald
May 20, 2016 11:41 pm
I like George Bernard Shaw’s observation, “There really are aliens from outer space, and for hundreds of years they have been dropping their insane here.”
Does explain a lot:)
Sorry, but it flies in the face of reason to suppose anyone is out there given the evidence we already have.
Anyone seen Stephen Hawking’s new series? Kinda falls short, but overall he mostly gets the point across that despite the odds, there has been too much time. Something seems to have made us unique in our neighborhood. Sure, it seems impossible to suppose we are alone in the universe, but we have reasonably sound evidence that we are alone in our vicinity. Fermi’s Paradox. Almost certainly alone in this galaxy, and we are not likely to ever leave the Milky Way, not even in a couple billion years, assuming only that we are around so long as something akin to what we are now.
Also, anyone who might come here wouldn’t care much for anything we might care about. If they have a power source to power an interstellar ship, and the wherewithal to deal with the time spans involved, we are less than trivial to them in any regard imaginable.
For all we will ever know, we are alone. Deal with it. (And don’t waste resources trying to figure out if they are there and hiding, and don’t waste resources trying to scream loud enough for them to notice. Horton just isn’t there.)
Saying that there is no intelligent life out there because we have not detected it is the same as the drunk looking for his keys at night on the street and concluding they are not there based on his search in the small lit up part of the street underneath the only street light…
The universe is 13+ billion years old. If we just take humanity as an example, If we do not extinguish ourselves beforehand, humanity will expand to fill the galaxy in a couple of million years at sub-light speed (a lot faster if FTL drives are discovered). If extraterrestrial intelligence is even someone likely, then another race would have already colonized Earth long ago.
The alternative is that such a race does exist, was the first to fill the galaxy, is benevolent, and is keeping us (and others) as zoo planets. A benevolent but expansionist race is very unlikely, the two are pretty much mutually exclusive.
In either case, broadcasting our presence is a waste of time and money.
Lonnie E. Schubert wrote: “Anyone seen Stephen Hawking’s new series? Kinda falls short, but overall he mostly gets the point across that despite the odds, there has been too much time. Something seems to have made us unique in our neighborhood.”
The planet we live on makes us unique in our neighborhood. How likely is life on another planet just like the Earth? We haven’t found a planet just like the Earth out there yet. Maybe they are few and far between; the exact matches, I mean. Maybe it requires specific circumstances like we have on Earth for life like us to emerge. Maybe a moon like our Moon is required, in addition to an Earth-like planet.
I don’t really think life is that limited, but to rule out life, I think we would have to find at least one duplicate of the Earth and find no life on it. We will know a lot more once humans reach Mars and do a thorough examination. It may not take finding a duplicate Earth to find life.
Lonnie E. Schubert: “Sure, it seems impossible to suppose we are alone in the universe, but we have reasonably sound evidence that we are alone in our vicinity.”
That depends on what you mean by “vicinity”. 🙂
Lonnie E. Schubert: “Fermi’s Paradox. Almost certainly alone in this galaxy,”
Maybe the Aliens are already here and we just don’t recognize it. They don’t have to announce themselves when they visit, although they may be doing a little of that on occasion, if alien UFO’s are real. Maybe they are getting us used to the idea. 🙂
Lonnie E. Schubert: “and we are not likely to ever leave the Milky Way, not even in a couple billion years,”
Well, that just depends on how fast we can go. I wouldn’t rule out humans figuring out some way around the speed limit. Think about that glorious universe! Someone has to see it!
Lonnie E. Schubert: “assuming only that we are around so long as something akin to what we are now.”
Society will have to work at staying human.
Oh come on, TA. No.
Wishful thinking. First, did you see Hawking’s show? It just started. PBS. Second of six episodes air this last week. Nothing great about the show, but it was sound overall. Hawking dealt lightly with the requirements for life, but basic life seems nearly certain everywhere (more or less) there is stable liquid water. Life is an emergent system. If there is liquid water, most everything needed is present. Self-organizing systems emerge where there are imbalances. Liquid water seems a key indicator.
I may not live long enough to see it, but I honestly expect my kids to see proof of life outside our planet.
You allude to how complicated it seems to be to develop complex life, especially life with the wherewithal to grow its own food and control its environment enough to facilitate more growth and development even when not well suited. Yes, it seems there are many important and limiting factors that seem to be in a rare, good combination on this planet. The closer in toward the center of the galaxy, the more dangerous it gets, and the less likely the environment could allow for complex life. It is reasonable to suppose that “people” (shall we say) live on the far side of our galaxy, and even if they are traversing the stars millions of years ahead of us, they just might not gotten round to stumbling on us yet. Perhaps they found toward center of the galaxy too much to worry with.
My main complaint of your wishful thinking is supposing they may be among us, or close by. NO! Energy. Power. Interstellar travel. Moving out to the nearest stars will require currently incomprehensible energy sources and engines beyond the wildest dreams of NASA engineers. It also requires times beyond biological lifespans. We can, and eventually will, of course, build vessels large enough to carry and support large populations of people and animals for multiple generations.
I say of course, but we won’t need to do that if we figure out a means of superluminal transport, but that just seems impossible. The energy requirements are still there either way. If creatures have the wherewithal to build and control adequate power supplies, they have no need of us or anything we value. Nothing. We likely have more in common with our gut microbes than we will with such lifeforms.
As to thinking of the glorious universe, I have. Assuming we stay something resembling human, and assuming “Star Gate” type technology in power and transport, we will not be able to explore the entire universe in a trillion years. Never. Run some rough-order-of-magnitude calculations. It cannot be done. The universe is vast beyond all imaginings. Think of the distances and times and numbers. Even allowing for ansible communications the possibility of tracking it all is just not there.
scarletmacaw, yes, more or less. It is unreasonable with what we know to suppose any sort of faster than light transport of matter. Perhaps, but it is mostly fanciful.
Lonnie E. Schubert May 21, 2016 at 9:09 am: “Oh come on, TA. No.
Wishful thinking. First, did you see Hawking’s show? It just started. PBS. Second of six episodes air this last week. Nothing great about the show, but it was sound overall. Hawking dealt lightly with the requirements for life, but basic life seems nearly certain everywhere (more or less) there is stable liquid water. Life is an emergent system. If there is liquid water, most everything needed is present. Self-organizing systems emerge where there are imbalances. Liquid water seems a key indicator.”
I don’t disagree with any of that. I have no wishful thinking as far as life in the universe is concerned. I’m just interested in the truth of the matter, and am not advocating for one view or the other.
I do think the odds are in favor of life everywhere there is a suitable enviroment.
I wonder though about some of the harsher environments to be found in space and whether they could spawn life.
On Earth we have organisms that can live in the harshest of environments, but they all started out from a single Earthly source, which started out in a fairly benign Earth environment, and adapted their way into those harsh environments.
Is a “fairly benign environment” like Earth needed to get life started?
My favorite theory is that we are under observation (and, possibly, under subtle, unobtrusive developmental guidance) without any direct contact. Somebody, it seems, sets the control in the heart of the Sun to make a laughing stock of hansens, manns, and zuckerbergs of this world.
The main reason of us being left alone is obvious: aborigene art is most valuable and original in absense of external influence; as soon as the higher civilization contacts savages, the savage charm is gone. An African mask made in Dahomey in 12th century brings big money in auction. An African mask made there today… well, may serve as a restaurant decoration.
Somewhere in a galaxy far, far away somebody is exchanging a high-res audio/video of Furtwaengler’s performance of Bach’s Mass in h-moll (which we, sadly, are missing on this deprived planet) for a rare example of billenium-old nul-transportation 3D holostamp from Arcturus III. Mark my words!
Ever read the Hindu bible? They aren’t exactly or exclusively observing. DNA splicing is new to us, not for them. Nonintereference was not part of their mandate.
Hoser
May 21, 2016 12:19 am
The cost of going to another star is too high to go just for fun. You could go only to stay. Warp drive? Nah. The c limit is real. Biological life would have a very hard time surviving the trip. AI might be able to go, but why come here? What would be useful to them? Metals? Energy?
The most important species to send to other worlds wouldn’t be us, at least not in the long run. After a few thousand years, we might be gone. But the bacteria we bring with us might learn to co-evolve with local microbes. A few billion years and something interesting might develop. Something that would not happen on Earth or the other place by themselves. The combination creates an opportunity for cooperation and leaps in evolution not possible in isolation.
That’s why I’d never sterilize a craft going to Mars. If some of our bugs can survive there, well, good for them. If we find microbes on Mars, it should be relatively easy to spot something we’ve never seen before. But I would prefer the Moon be a place where any returning craft must go before anything is returned to Earth. I’m not ready to give up my spot on Earth just yet. Although, if I had the chance to be part of a permanent Moon base, I’d go.
Some things spring to mind in the event we did have a signal intercepted, risks.
What are the odds an advanced alien resource based advanced race even understands “morality or ethics” two very human and relatively recent concepts.
What are the odds advanced civilisations created machines that think for themselves that outlived or spread out far from the creating biological race.
What are the odds an advanced civilisation is warlike, Klingons for example (haha)
The odds of finding a moral and egalitarian advanced civilisation (star trek may be deluding some)
So, under the auspices (literally, we have no clue but what the entrails and chicken bones tell us) in a risk management methodology, we are making a bad decision. Because in every single case of human history the advanced civilisation destroyed the primitive civilisation.
You cant fix stupid. We are literally jumping into a fast flowing river without a float or a plan.
The only real evidence we have is here on earth, ruthless competition. There is nothing to suggest it would not be the same encountering an advanced civilisation.
The other issue is the universe experiences mass sterilisations regularly via cosmic events. We don’t actually even know how the universe works, we “think” we have an idea but we do not “know” much.
We dont know what the universe is, we dont know how big it is, we don’t know where we are in it, we “think” we have an idea but cannot confirm anything. We dont even “know” how old our own planet is.
The odds there is other life out there are good according to the mathematics, but odds mean nothing to each individual instance.
The Universe is very hostile to life, and we could be sterilised before we even make our way out into the Universe, we are flying blind, but human arrogance and desire to feed intellectualism fools us into believing we “know” more than we do, far more than we actually “know”, know being true understanding based on scientific finding.
I shudder to think there is an advanced race of progressives out there!!
I have a great idea! Let’s send a probe out there detailing everything about us, and also give them a road map to find us! What could go wrong? ( we did just that…. but then that 500 lb manhole cover is out there somewhere too)
Peta in Cumbria
May 21, 2016 2:35 am
Good Intentions strike yet again.
The depressed human brain cannot cope with something or anything unknown, it needs to feel safe.
So, as has happened countless times over, missionaries are sent out to bring education, christianity, health care, solar panels, mobile phones etc etc etc.
Nothing ever goes wrong does it? Oh he11 no.
Nothing like syphillis, AIDS, influenza, heart disease, cancer, obesity, landscape destruction, slavery, trash TV, depression, drug abuse & alcoholism. (feel free to add to this list because the folks we contact wont feel free for long)
Oh no, nothing ever goes wrong
Stevek
May 21, 2016 4:21 am
Is it possible to destroy the universe ? Even by mistake when doing some type of quantum experiment ( for example using particle accelerators )
If it was possible why hasn’t it happened yet ?
[The mods point out that it may have already happened (happy-ended ?), but the event wave (the shock wave) has not arrived here yet.
Or, then again, it already happened, and we are now in the second universe. Behind the shock wave of the destruction of the first universe that happened 14 billion years ago. .mod]
I recall reading a book in which a seemingly benign bunch of ET invaders settled on the planet, treated their human serfs with respect and generosity and followed the rules laid down in a book called ‘To serve man’.
It was a cookery book.
Much of this is based on science fiction. First, there is an assumption there is life on other planets, something we have no evidence either way of, and second, that trying to contact the said life would be catastrophic. Neither assumption has any evidence. True, had humans not put messages in bottles, some contacts would have taken much longer and we could have lived in bliss until the arrival of the conquerers. Perhaps we should have done that, it’s hard to say. (This is reminiscent of GMO arguments—a monster will appear from it so we shouldn’t do use GMO’s.)
The only actual objection that would stand up in all of this is if it uses public funds, the funds could be used for a much better purpose than someone’s pet project with unknown odds of success. This is a complete “shot-in-the-dark” project, akin to trying to solve a medical problem by digging as far into the earth as possible and hoping to find some magic substance hereto unknown that will solve the problem, say cure cancer. It might work, and the sun might explode tomorrow. It’s all possible, just not probable. To waste money on this type of project deprives actual useful science of funds. If some rich guy wants to fritter away a billion or two a year on something like this, so be it. Otherwise, leave science fiction funding to the private sector.
(We don’t clone humans YET.)
‘Further, the Earth grows quieter annually as more information is transmitted via cable, the Internet, and satellites rather than terrestrially over the air.’
I should imagine Earth is a bright object, and increasingly so, at the frequencies of civilian and military radar. Infrequently, radar is deliberately directed outwards too, in order to look at asteroids; this practice may also increase.
Not a good idea to contact the aliens. I speculate the aliens are intelligent machines. They don’t have a sense of morality and emotion. They have already annihilated their biological predecessor. They have no interest with being friends with hairless apes. They don’t need a reason to be bad. Some people shoot deer just for fun. If they have a Death Star, Darth Vader can just shoot us with their planet-destroying laser gun. If you’re a deer, don’t call a man with a rifle.
Evan Jones
Editor
May 21, 2016 5:51 am
Return message: We’ll get you — and your little dog, too.
halftiderock
May 21, 2016 6:51 am
Does the word “stupid” resonate with anyone? Kind of like a ball of minnows announcing it’s presence to all of the predatory fish and birds. DUH!
Hmm…should we blast our little itty bitty corner of the Milky Way with a dinner bell (either invitation or come and get it)? I dunno.
I honestly don’t think any intelligent ET would be that interested in us. Intraspecies fighting aside; I just don’t think we as a race are that interesting. We are technologically at our infancy, we haven’t figured out what could be the basis of all physics and we are stumbling around in the dark, lighting up different corners as we go and are ignorant of how big the room is we’re standing in. Our politics is too concerned with being the ‘masters of the Earth’ and we cling to philosophies that are millenia old yet have no basis in reality.
So interesting?? Naw…I think they’d probably already heard us, labeled us as, wait and see how they develop and have left us alone. Or who knows, maybe one of the creatures on this planet caused a quarantine and therefore we are left alone for that reason. It’s all speculation.
I do believe though that until ET decides to come en mass, we are still going to be too concerned with being masters to bother.
H.R.
May 21, 2016 7:35 am
A roommate of mine years ago, raised as a Mormon, pointed out that those pairs of young men on bicycles I’d see who were dressed in black slacks, white shirts, and wearing a plain tie were Mormon missionaries.
Now, years later, I’m not so sure all of them are Mormon missionaries. Perfect cover if you want to get the lay of the land before invading from outer space.
StarkNakedTruth
May 21, 2016 7:39 am
Seriously?
Had an alien race determined that there was intelligent life on earth, we would have been contacted by now. And insomuch as there has been no contact to date, I think it’s safe to assume that ET has figured out, “nothing to see here, move along.”
Maybe they might send missionaries, oops that did not go well in our past.
Anybody communicate with a Sasquatch yet?
I find all the reactions on this topic really interesting, just a few years ago my wife and I had an interesting experience, we (without a doubt) saw for a few minutes a airborne craft that defied anything we had ever seen. We live close to an international airport, ( I grew up a few miles away from a NATO air-force base as a teenager) and have all kinds of experience in ID’ing planes choppers, seaplanes etc, we are also interested in astronomy, weather phenomena ( Have a Stev screen that does 2x daily obs for the government). This thing was nothing that we could explain, as my wife went back into the house to get a camera ( while I was watching this “craft” hoover above us at about 300 – 350 meters) and brought it out and tried to take pictures, this thing just up and went. After the heart rate went down ( about an hour later we each separately made drawings and wrote down description of the craft. They almost exactly the same. To this day we still have no idea what it might have been but my wife has spend a lot of time on the net and after weeding through all the usual hoopla we have found a few people that have seen and have a similar description of the same craft during the same time frame.
I realize that this will get derided but WE know what we saw was some thing radically different, after much thought we think it is probably something that uses a new type of propulsion in the line of anti gravity. ( I can already hear the laughter and the derision but I am sure of what we saw and 6 years later it still puzzles us but not in a negative way.)
No, no derision from me my friend, or from anybody else with an open mind. Unidentified flying objects are a fact, no question about it. You are in the good company of airline pilots, Belgian Air Force generals, air traffic controllers, corroborating radar recordings, etc etc.
Here is an interesting and credible report by the French government looking into the phenomenon:
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/sociopol_cometareport01.htm
World war 2 bomber pilots called them “Foo Fighters”.
My father had the unfortunate experience of having spent most of his military experience in WWII on the Russian front.
He said that it was common for them to see “silver discs” in the sky; particularly just before major offensives.
He/they thought that they were some kind of Russian secret weapon. From the interrigation of Russian prisoners, they learned that the Russians thought that they were German secret weapons.
asybot, could you give us a description of the UFO?
This UFO account seems to be one of the best to me. Hundreds of people saw this UFO, and I have seen tv specials done on it and the witnesses are just your average person, but also includes many police and other officials.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Lights
“Witnesses claim to have observed a huge V-shaped (several football field sized), coherently-moving dark UFO (stars would disappear behind the object and reappear as it passed by), producing no sound, and containing five spherical lights or possibly light-emitting engines. Fife Symington,[2] the governor at the time, was one witness to this incident. As governor he ridiculed the idea of alien origin,[3] but several years later he called the lights he saw “otherworldly” after admitting he saw a similar UFO.”
I’m not saying alien UFO’s are real, and I’m not saying they are not, but I would sure like to hear a logical explanation for this sighting.
Yours didn’t happen to be triangular in shape, did it? Completely silent? 🙂
“but I would sure like to hear a logical explanation for this sighting.”
I was on the road at the time of the Phx lights, I-10 coming back from Tuscon which skirts the back of South Mountain Park. The Phx lights were flares and from the perspective I had it was clear they were flares. They were at different heights, they fell at the same rate but were clearly released at different times AND they fell behind South Mountain. From the perspective of those in Phx, it would appear they were on a single plain, but behind South Mountain you could tell they weren’t. Now I can’t be sure to this day because those freaking flares were so bright–but I think there were men parachuting down too.
I can hear it now—“but the military said they weren’t doing any exercises that night”. I will counter with this, “since when has the military called the public about any maneuver they are doing? Especially in and around Phx.” Those that remember all the calls about the UFO in the skies that turned out to be a refueling drill can attest to that one. It hit all the public airwaves–“Don’t Panic Folks! That’s just a refueling plane you see!”
I grew up in Phx and Vegas and I can not tell you the amount of times I’ve been out in the desert riding–or on a desert road where I’ve come across some type of military drill. It happens more often than people think. Heck once while diving near Glen Canyon dam we saw a bunch of guys just cruz past us…wouldn’t have known they were there except we weren’t supposed to be there at the time. They were as surprised as we were. We waved, they waved and moved on.
So there is your explanation from a person that was on the road behind the largest feature in the Valley–they were flares and nothing more.
As if witnesses couldn’t tell the difference between flares and triangular objects blocking out starlight that, according to one observer, was bigger than a newspaper held at arms length. Sad how some will swallow anything the gov. tells them. In addition the objects were seen over a period of hours at different locations and apparently you weren’t, unluckily, in the right spot or time, but hey, you be the expert on others observations.
Jenn, there were two “incidents” in Phoenix. The later one were obviously military flares (perhaps done intentionally to confuse), but the earlier one (by 2 hrs) was pretty much right over the outskirts of Phoenix and looked completely different — a huge, low & slow-flying un-illuminated triangle. Don’t confuse the two.
Since we are all throwing in our two cents….
About two years ago, at around 11:30am on a summer weekday, I was about to get into my car parked in front of my house on Mt. Dandenong (Australia) when I glanced up.
Almost directly above me (bearing ~260, az ~70) was a circular silver object, convex on the top and bottom, but with vertical sides. While overall silver in color, the top and bottom were shiny, while the sides were matt. The top and bottom were featureless, but I could make out several evenly spaced vertical indentations in the sides that were visible to me.
The object was slowly moving north at a slow pace, against the ground wind which was from the NNW. It was absolutely silent.
The sky was absolutely clear, blue and cloudless, with no haze. As I was watching, the sun was behind my right shoulder, to the north of my position. There was no other aerial traffic visible to me at the time.
I watched it until it disappeared below the top of the northern treeline; a period of about five to seven minutes.
Since the sky was clear, I had no reference points, and therefore could not judge either its height or size; but when I held my fist at arm’s length its length it was about twice the width of my fist and its maximum thickness was about three finger thicknesses. The vertical sides were about one finger thickness thick.
Subsequently, I checked news reports but heard no mention of any other sightings.
@ur momisugly TA, May 21. No This was in bright daylight, to us we drew a shape that reminded me of one of those elevator capsules on the outside of a skyscraper , it looked glass enclosed for the top 2/3 with a solid bottom with 2 dark rings around the bottom part, it definitely carried 2 people that appeared to be standing up and wore dark sun glasses, or had large dark facial features. ( estimation of their elevation could be off it is hard to guess looking upwards it could have been closer than the 300 m we first thought. maybe as little as 175 -225 meters). I could see arms (2) on both “pilots” and they seemed to be moving controls on a surface in front of them. What struck me was the length of time it hovered, my wife had time to go back into the house for her camera but as soon as she returned and pointed the camera this thing just up and went. I am still not sure if there was an “after glow” but it’s speed was astounding. That is why I can really only think of anti gravity, anything else should have crushed anything biological. There was an event the following night with bright lights shining into our house that we never have been able to explain either all the angles of the lights were impossible from anything like car lights aircraft etc ( and this is the first time I have ever mentioned this to anyone else but the two of us it was frightening)
asybot, So your UFO was a small two-person vehicle. It’s amazing you got such a good look at the occupants. Were you using binoculars? Could you tell if they were looking at you?
The description you give is like a barrel-shaped vehicle with the long axis being vertical. I saw a video of a UFO over Mexico City (I think) that was barrel-shaped with the long axis being vertical, but it appeared to be all metallic and it was hard to judge its size. That’s the only barrel-shaped one I have ever seen or heard of.
Things like that make you wonder, don’t they. 🙂
TA, I guess the “vehicle” was about 20 -24 feet tall and ~ 8 feet in diameter ( like a blunt bullet shape), imagine the cockpit of a helicopter it is for me the best comparison to make we have a lot of those flying around us, The occupants were definitely looking at both of us. We are still not sure of the elevation it was at as I said looking up in the sky and the totally unusual shape and no noise just left us stunned and you are right it does make you wonder.
Two years ago I was flying four of us across the Grand Canyon at FL260. It was about noon in a typical bright, clear sky. My wife comes forward to tap me on the shoulder and points off to the SW where we all see a very large self illuminated billboard at our altitude. It was about the color pink that a ceramic burner gets when it is very hot. Brighter that the sky behind it. LA Center saw nothing on radar. Crisp rectilinear shape in the vertical plane that was apparently at an angle so it appeared trapezoidal as is turned and receded away. No way to judge size or distance, but it was certainly very large.
Same sort of thing happened to my friend,he was flying about 2500ft and was warned by Air Control about an unidentified object that was appearing and then dissapearing on Radar about ten mile away. He flew over to the location and was amazed to see a large flying cardboard box flapping around going up and down,opening and closing as thought it was stuck on top of an airjet.He said the aerobatics of it were amazing to watch.
Man Tran wrote: “It was about the color pink that a ceramic burner gets when it is very hot. Brighter that the sky behind it. LA Center saw nothing on radar. Crisp rectilinear shape in the vertical plane that was apparently at an angle so it appeared trapezoidal as is turned and receded away.”
That is a unique design description, AFAIK. Never heard or saw one described like that.
I’m not an advocate of UFO’s or a detractor, I just don’t know, but I do look at what is available, and I have noted that there are many different designs to UFO’s. Back in the 20th century, it was the classic saucer-shaped UFO, and then there was a variation of this design that looked more like a tophat than the classic saucer.
I have also seen barrel-shaped UFO’s (in Mexico, I believe) and lately the UFO’s seem to be triangular-shaped, as in the Phoenix sighting. And now we have Man Tran’s design.
Assuming we are being visited by alien beings, I wonder if each of these different designs represents a different alien civilization. 🙂
It’s an interesting subject, but as always, I’m skeptical first.
And one question I always have is: Why can’t we get some good pictures of these UFO objects!?
The slow-moving Phoenix triangle would seem to be a pretty good opportunity. But all we have are drawings.
Well, there are a whole lot more cameras available now, than there were in 1997, so maybe we will do better in the future.
TA: There were some good photos during the Belgium triangle UFO flap. However, of course, they were immediately attacked as fakes which is typical. But I do like the UK Ministry of Defense’s explanation in that “natural” plasma fields cause vivid hallucinations and psychological effects in witnesses which result in the sightings. So you can kinda see why more don’t come forward.
“UK Ministry of Defence report UAP in the UK Air Defence Region,[5] code named Project Condign and released to the public in 2006, draws several conclusions as to the origin of “black triangle” UFO sightings. Their researchers conclude that most, if not all, “black triangle” UFOs are formations of electrical plasma, the interaction of which creates mysterious energy fields that both refract light and produce vivid hallucinations in witnesses that are in close proximity. Further it suggests that “the majority, if not all, of the hitherto unexplained reports may well be due to atmospheric gaseous electrically charged buoyant plasmas” [6] which emit charged fields with the capability of inducing vivid hallucinations and psychological effects in witnesses”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_triangle_%28UFO%29#UK_Ministry_of_Defence_Report_Findings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_fireballs
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/20/the-morality-of-meti-should-we-broadcast-to-let-aliens-know-were-here/#comment-2219844
BFL wrote: “Further it suggests that “the majority, if not all, of the hitherto unexplained reports may well be due to atmospheric gaseous electrically charged buoyant plasmas” [6] which emit charged fields with the capability of inducing vivid hallucinations and psychological effects in witnesses”
I wonder if CO2 has anything to do with it? The Alarmists might be able to find an angle here.
Thanks for the picture of the triangular UFO.
The arrogance is stunning.
As if the ET’s would not already know everything about us.
If they are advanced enough to get here they will be advanced enough to detect us from afar and advanced enough to keep us oblivious to their presence should they choose to.
Why would those ET’s use an ancient mechanism (radio waves) for communication, one which is totally inadequate for interstellar communications?
This whole SETI and METI thing is the equivalent of Papua New Guinee bushmen trying to make first contact with western civilization by making smoke signals, and concluding there is no other intelligent life out there beyond the bush, based on the fact that they have looked for years but have never seen any smoke signals on the horizon…
Agree ti that Wijnand,
Given the cosmic timescales, it is very unlikely that we meet another intelligent life form just at the same level of technological development as we are. If we are able to make contact, they will probably be some millions of years ahead of us.
If such a civilization exists within the nearest 1000 LY, they already know we are here.
A METI could probably make a genuine new contact with a civilization more than 1000 LY away, but how interesting is that really? Send a message now, and may be receive an answer in more than 2000 years from now. Patience I a virtue, but this is too far.
I think the search for habitable extrasolar planets and signs of life by doing spectral analysis of the light passing through the atmosphere of those planets, is far more interesting.
Jan
Since we are marked as “Mostly Harmless” on the Galactic charts, I doubt that it will make a difference whether we broadcast or not. The Vogons won’t care.
How do you know that Vogan is not extremely sensitive to frequency climate change and what they call eardrums will not shatter?
Vogons are not sensitive to anything. That is why their poetry is the second worst in the Galaxy.
I like George Bernard Shaw’s observation, “There really are aliens from outer space, and for hundreds of years they have been dropping their insane here.”
Does explain a lot:)
Sorry, but it flies in the face of reason to suppose anyone is out there given the evidence we already have.
Anyone seen Stephen Hawking’s new series? Kinda falls short, but overall he mostly gets the point across that despite the odds, there has been too much time. Something seems to have made us unique in our neighborhood. Sure, it seems impossible to suppose we are alone in the universe, but we have reasonably sound evidence that we are alone in our vicinity. Fermi’s Paradox. Almost certainly alone in this galaxy, and we are not likely to ever leave the Milky Way, not even in a couple billion years, assuming only that we are around so long as something akin to what we are now.
Also, anyone who might come here wouldn’t care much for anything we might care about. If they have a power source to power an interstellar ship, and the wherewithal to deal with the time spans involved, we are less than trivial to them in any regard imaginable.
For all we will ever know, we are alone. Deal with it. (And don’t waste resources trying to figure out if they are there and hiding, and don’t waste resources trying to scream loud enough for them to notice. Horton just isn’t there.)
Saying that there is no intelligent life out there because we have not detected it is the same as the drunk looking for his keys at night on the street and concluding they are not there based on his search in the small lit up part of the street underneath the only street light…
The universe is 13+ billion years old. If we just take humanity as an example, If we do not extinguish ourselves beforehand, humanity will expand to fill the galaxy in a couple of million years at sub-light speed (a lot faster if FTL drives are discovered). If extraterrestrial intelligence is even someone likely, then another race would have already colonized Earth long ago.
The alternative is that such a race does exist, was the first to fill the galaxy, is benevolent, and is keeping us (and others) as zoo planets. A benevolent but expansionist race is very unlikely, the two are pretty much mutually exclusive.
In either case, broadcasting our presence is a waste of time and money.
No. Not at all. We don’t need to look. They have had billions of years to drop by. If they haven’t, it is unreasonable to suppose they will.
Lonnie E. Schubert wrote: “Anyone seen Stephen Hawking’s new series? Kinda falls short, but overall he mostly gets the point across that despite the odds, there has been too much time. Something seems to have made us unique in our neighborhood.”
The planet we live on makes us unique in our neighborhood. How likely is life on another planet just like the Earth? We haven’t found a planet just like the Earth out there yet. Maybe they are few and far between; the exact matches, I mean. Maybe it requires specific circumstances like we have on Earth for life like us to emerge. Maybe a moon like our Moon is required, in addition to an Earth-like planet.
I don’t really think life is that limited, but to rule out life, I think we would have to find at least one duplicate of the Earth and find no life on it. We will know a lot more once humans reach Mars and do a thorough examination. It may not take finding a duplicate Earth to find life.
Lonnie E. Schubert: “Sure, it seems impossible to suppose we are alone in the universe, but we have reasonably sound evidence that we are alone in our vicinity.”
That depends on what you mean by “vicinity”. 🙂
Lonnie E. Schubert: “Fermi’s Paradox. Almost certainly alone in this galaxy,”
Maybe the Aliens are already here and we just don’t recognize it. They don’t have to announce themselves when they visit, although they may be doing a little of that on occasion, if alien UFO’s are real. Maybe they are getting us used to the idea. 🙂
Lonnie E. Schubert: “and we are not likely to ever leave the Milky Way, not even in a couple billion years,”
Well, that just depends on how fast we can go. I wouldn’t rule out humans figuring out some way around the speed limit. Think about that glorious universe! Someone has to see it!
Lonnie E. Schubert: “assuming only that we are around so long as something akin to what we are now.”
Society will have to work at staying human.
Oh come on, TA. No.
Wishful thinking. First, did you see Hawking’s show? It just started. PBS. Second of six episodes air this last week. Nothing great about the show, but it was sound overall. Hawking dealt lightly with the requirements for life, but basic life seems nearly certain everywhere (more or less) there is stable liquid water. Life is an emergent system. If there is liquid water, most everything needed is present. Self-organizing systems emerge where there are imbalances. Liquid water seems a key indicator.
I may not live long enough to see it, but I honestly expect my kids to see proof of life outside our planet.
You allude to how complicated it seems to be to develop complex life, especially life with the wherewithal to grow its own food and control its environment enough to facilitate more growth and development even when not well suited. Yes, it seems there are many important and limiting factors that seem to be in a rare, good combination on this planet. The closer in toward the center of the galaxy, the more dangerous it gets, and the less likely the environment could allow for complex life. It is reasonable to suppose that “people” (shall we say) live on the far side of our galaxy, and even if they are traversing the stars millions of years ahead of us, they just might not gotten round to stumbling on us yet. Perhaps they found toward center of the galaxy too much to worry with.
My main complaint of your wishful thinking is supposing they may be among us, or close by. NO! Energy. Power. Interstellar travel. Moving out to the nearest stars will require currently incomprehensible energy sources and engines beyond the wildest dreams of NASA engineers. It also requires times beyond biological lifespans. We can, and eventually will, of course, build vessels large enough to carry and support large populations of people and animals for multiple generations.
I say of course, but we won’t need to do that if we figure out a means of superluminal transport, but that just seems impossible. The energy requirements are still there either way. If creatures have the wherewithal to build and control adequate power supplies, they have no need of us or anything we value. Nothing. We likely have more in common with our gut microbes than we will with such lifeforms.
As to thinking of the glorious universe, I have. Assuming we stay something resembling human, and assuming “Star Gate” type technology in power and transport, we will not be able to explore the entire universe in a trillion years. Never. Run some rough-order-of-magnitude calculations. It cannot be done. The universe is vast beyond all imaginings. Think of the distances and times and numbers. Even allowing for ansible communications the possibility of tracking it all is just not there.
scarletmacaw, yes, more or less. It is unreasonable with what we know to suppose any sort of faster than light transport of matter. Perhaps, but it is mostly fanciful.
There is Big Bang faster-than-light inflation to consider. It happened once in this universe.
Lonnie E. Schubert May 21, 2016 at 9:09 am: “Oh come on, TA. No.
Wishful thinking. First, did you see Hawking’s show? It just started. PBS. Second of six episodes air this last week. Nothing great about the show, but it was sound overall. Hawking dealt lightly with the requirements for life, but basic life seems nearly certain everywhere (more or less) there is stable liquid water. Life is an emergent system. If there is liquid water, most everything needed is present. Self-organizing systems emerge where there are imbalances. Liquid water seems a key indicator.”
I don’t disagree with any of that. I have no wishful thinking as far as life in the universe is concerned. I’m just interested in the truth of the matter, and am not advocating for one view or the other.
I do think the odds are in favor of life everywhere there is a suitable enviroment.
I wonder though about some of the harsher environments to be found in space and whether they could spawn life.
On Earth we have organisms that can live in the harshest of environments, but they all started out from a single Earthly source, which started out in a fairly benign Earth environment, and adapted their way into those harsh environments.
Is a “fairly benign environment” like Earth needed to get life started?
My favorite theory is that we are under observation (and, possibly, under subtle, unobtrusive developmental guidance) without any direct contact. Somebody, it seems, sets the control in the heart of the Sun to make a laughing stock of hansens, manns, and zuckerbergs of this world.
The main reason of us being left alone is obvious: aborigene art is most valuable and original in absense of external influence; as soon as the higher civilization contacts savages, the savage charm is gone. An African mask made in Dahomey in 12th century brings big money in auction. An African mask made there today… well, may serve as a restaurant decoration.
Somewhere in a galaxy far, far away somebody is exchanging a high-res audio/video of Furtwaengler’s performance of Bach’s Mass in h-moll (which we, sadly, are missing on this deprived planet) for a rare example of billenium-old nul-transportation 3D holostamp from Arcturus III. Mark my words!
Ever read the Hindu bible? They aren’t exactly or exclusively observing. DNA splicing is new to us, not for them. Nonintereference was not part of their mandate.
The cost of going to another star is too high to go just for fun. You could go only to stay. Warp drive? Nah. The c limit is real. Biological life would have a very hard time surviving the trip. AI might be able to go, but why come here? What would be useful to them? Metals? Energy?
The most important species to send to other worlds wouldn’t be us, at least not in the long run. After a few thousand years, we might be gone. But the bacteria we bring with us might learn to co-evolve with local microbes. A few billion years and something interesting might develop. Something that would not happen on Earth or the other place by themselves. The combination creates an opportunity for cooperation and leaps in evolution not possible in isolation.
That’s why I’d never sterilize a craft going to Mars. If some of our bugs can survive there, well, good for them. If we find microbes on Mars, it should be relatively easy to spot something we’ve never seen before. But I would prefer the Moon be a place where any returning craft must go before anything is returned to Earth. I’m not ready to give up my spot on Earth just yet. Although, if I had the chance to be part of a permanent Moon base, I’d go.
Sex toys.
Some things spring to mind in the event we did have a signal intercepted, risks.
What are the odds an advanced alien resource based advanced race even understands “morality or ethics” two very human and relatively recent concepts.
What are the odds advanced civilisations created machines that think for themselves that outlived or spread out far from the creating biological race.
What are the odds an advanced civilisation is warlike, Klingons for example (haha)
The odds of finding a moral and egalitarian advanced civilisation (star trek may be deluding some)
So, under the auspices (literally, we have no clue but what the entrails and chicken bones tell us) in a risk management methodology, we are making a bad decision. Because in every single case of human history the advanced civilisation destroyed the primitive civilisation.
You cant fix stupid. We are literally jumping into a fast flowing river without a float or a plan.
The only real evidence we have is here on earth, ruthless competition. There is nothing to suggest it would not be the same encountering an advanced civilisation.
The other issue is the universe experiences mass sterilisations regularly via cosmic events. We don’t actually even know how the universe works, we “think” we have an idea but we do not “know” much.
We dont know what the universe is, we dont know how big it is, we don’t know where we are in it, we “think” we have an idea but cannot confirm anything. We dont even “know” how old our own planet is.
The odds there is other life out there are good according to the mathematics, but odds mean nothing to each individual instance.
The Universe is very hostile to life, and we could be sterilised before we even make our way out into the Universe, we are flying blind, but human arrogance and desire to feed intellectualism fools us into believing we “know” more than we do, far more than we actually “know”, know being true understanding based on scientific finding.
I shudder to think there is an advanced race of progressives out there!!
Don’t worry too much, progressives cannot advance. They are suicidal.
but they might have created progressive robots.The Borg for example baaahahaha
I have a great idea! Let’s send a probe out there detailing everything about us, and also give them a road map to find us! What could go wrong? ( we did just that…. but then that 500 lb manhole cover is out there somewhere too)
Good Intentions strike yet again.
The depressed human brain cannot cope with something or anything unknown, it needs to feel safe.
So, as has happened countless times over, missionaries are sent out to bring education, christianity, health care, solar panels, mobile phones etc etc etc.
Nothing ever goes wrong does it? Oh he11 no.
Nothing like syphillis, AIDS, influenza, heart disease, cancer, obesity, landscape destruction, slavery, trash TV, depression, drug abuse & alcoholism. (feel free to add to this list because the folks we contact wont feel free for long)
Oh no, nothing ever goes wrong
Is it possible to destroy the universe ? Even by mistake when doing some type of quantum experiment ( for example using particle accelerators )
If it was possible why hasn’t it happened yet ?
[The mods point out that it may have already happened (happy-ended ?), but the event wave (the shock wave) has not arrived here yet.
Or, then again, it already happened, and we are now in the second universe. Behind the shock wave of the destruction of the first universe that happened 14 billion years ago. .mod]
I recall reading a book in which a seemingly benign bunch of ET invaders settled on the planet, treated their human serfs with respect and generosity and followed the rules laid down in a book called ‘To serve man’.
It was a cookery book.
Would it be any use to send a powerful beam of light out into space?
We could re-purpose Ivanpah to stop it bursting into flames.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/1cd292f7228040228e744fe0ea611b8d/mirrors-blamed-fire-worlds-largest-solar-plant
Well maybe ET should come out of the closet.
You noticed that, too.
To say nothing of the restroom issues.
Much of this is based on science fiction. First, there is an assumption there is life on other planets, something we have no evidence either way of, and second, that trying to contact the said life would be catastrophic. Neither assumption has any evidence. True, had humans not put messages in bottles, some contacts would have taken much longer and we could have lived in bliss until the arrival of the conquerers. Perhaps we should have done that, it’s hard to say. (This is reminiscent of GMO arguments—a monster will appear from it so we shouldn’t do use GMO’s.)
The only actual objection that would stand up in all of this is if it uses public funds, the funds could be used for a much better purpose than someone’s pet project with unknown odds of success. This is a complete “shot-in-the-dark” project, akin to trying to solve a medical problem by digging as far into the earth as possible and hoping to find some magic substance hereto unknown that will solve the problem, say cure cancer. It might work, and the sun might explode tomorrow. It’s all possible, just not probable. To waste money on this type of project deprives actual useful science of funds. If some rich guy wants to fritter away a billion or two a year on something like this, so be it. Otherwise, leave science fiction funding to the private sector.
(We don’t clone humans YET.)
‘Further, the Earth grows quieter annually as more information is transmitted via cable, the Internet, and satellites rather than terrestrially over the air.’
I should imagine Earth is a bright object, and increasingly so, at the frequencies of civilian and military radar. Infrequently, radar is deliberately directed outwards too, in order to look at asteroids; this practice may also increase.
Not a good idea to contact the aliens. I speculate the aliens are intelligent machines. They don’t have a sense of morality and emotion. They have already annihilated their biological predecessor. They have no interest with being friends with hairless apes. They don’t need a reason to be bad. Some people shoot deer just for fun. If they have a Death Star, Darth Vader can just shoot us with their planet-destroying laser gun. If you’re a deer, don’t call a man with a rifle.
Return message: We’ll get you — and your little dog, too.
Does the word “stupid” resonate with anyone? Kind of like a ball of minnows announcing it’s presence to all of the predatory fish and birds. DUH!
It is like an ant colony leaving scent messages outside the colony to try and contact your tennage daughter. Good luck!
Hmm…should we blast our little itty bitty corner of the Milky Way with a dinner bell (either invitation or come and get it)? I dunno.
I honestly don’t think any intelligent ET would be that interested in us. Intraspecies fighting aside; I just don’t think we as a race are that interesting. We are technologically at our infancy, we haven’t figured out what could be the basis of all physics and we are stumbling around in the dark, lighting up different corners as we go and are ignorant of how big the room is we’re standing in. Our politics is too concerned with being the ‘masters of the Earth’ and we cling to philosophies that are millenia old yet have no basis in reality.
So interesting?? Naw…I think they’d probably already heard us, labeled us as, wait and see how they develop and have left us alone. Or who knows, maybe one of the creatures on this planet caused a quarantine and therefore we are left alone for that reason. It’s all speculation.
I do believe though that until ET decides to come en mass, we are still going to be too concerned with being masters to bother.
A roommate of mine years ago, raised as a Mormon, pointed out that those pairs of young men on bicycles I’d see who were dressed in black slacks, white shirts, and wearing a plain tie were Mormon missionaries.
Now, years later, I’m not so sure all of them are Mormon missionaries. Perfect cover if you want to get the lay of the land before invading from outer space.
Seriously?
Had an alien race determined that there was intelligent life on earth, we would have been contacted by now. And insomuch as there has been no contact to date, I think it’s safe to assume that ET has figured out, “nothing to see here, move along.”
Unless interstellar travel, other than to the closest stars, is truly impractical.
We’ve been broadcasting our presence ever since we invented radio, television, and radio telescopes just for starters.