Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
As expected, annual global lower troposphere temperature (TLT) anomalies in 2015 for both the RSS and UAH datasets ranked a remote third warmest. See Figures 1 through 3.
Figure 1 (RSS)
# # #
Figure 2 (UAH)
# # #
Figure 3 (RSS-UAH Comparison)
RSS data through December 2015 are here. UAH data (beta 6.4) are here through November, and the December 2015 value of +0.44 deg C is from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog post here.
Keep in mind, however, that lower troposphere temperature anomalies are expected to rise sharply in 2016 in a lagged response to the 2015/16 El Niño. See the post Evolutions of Global Surface and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomalies in Responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niños.
Next on the list is a post presenting meteorological annual mean (December-November) surface and lower troposphere temperature anomalies. I’m waiting for UKMO to publish their November 2015 HADCRUT4 values.
According to my spreadsheet the UAH December, 2015 temperature departure of 0.44 C yields a negative trendline slope for the last 18 years and 6 months. But to me it seems more important that the rate of global warming since satellite records began is only 1.16 degrees C per century and less than 0.2 degrees C per century since the year 2000.
Thank you! However RSS lost a month and is now at 18 years and 8 months.
This is the last time you’ll be able to say that. As from next month, the length of the negative trendline will dramatically drop from 18 years to zero. Funny thing – that least squares fit.
I noticed that someone from University Of Colorado – Boulder (198.11.28.7) has shown interest in this ‘link’ . Are we to expect a new paper on the AMO causes understanding?
VUKCEVIC!! I think that was a *ping* — a cry for help! Oh, do *ping* back… some poor brave soul wants out of the Fortress of L1es!! 😉
If of interest, the BoM calculates that 2015 was the fifth hottest year in Australia (i.e. since 1910 with area averaging under ACORN) and annual rainfall was 5% below its 1961-90 average … http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/
I wouldn’t trust BoM’s ACORN as far as I can throw it. Eg: Newcastle.
BoM’s ACORN sites ‘Newcastle’ at Williamtown, approx 20k’s west of Newy, Williamtown is Aust’s 2nd largest RAAF base (possibly the largest). The following squadrons are based at Williamtown:
No 453 Squadron (453SQN) Williamtown Flight
No 3 Squadron (3SQN) operating F/A-18 Hornet aircraft
No 77 Squadron (77SQN) operating F/A-18 Hornet aircraft
No 2 Operational Conversion Unit (2OCU) operating F/A-18 Hornet aircraft
No 76 Squadron (76SQN) operating Hawk Mk127 aircraft
No 4 Squadron (4SQN) operating PC-9/A Forward Air Control aircraft
No 2 Squadron (2SQN) operating AEW&C Wedgetail aircraft
No 2 Expeditionary Health Squadron, Headquarters
1 CCS (Combat Support Squadron) Detachment Williamtown
No 453 Squadron (453SQN) Headquarters
No 26 (City of Newcastle) Squadron – Airbase Operations
No 381 Squadron – Contigency Response
No 1 Security Force Squadron, Headquarters
(the F/A-18’s are planed to be replaced by the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter).
It is also home to Newy’s commercial airport with over 30 departure and arrival fights per day. Williamtown WS has only been in operation since around 1943, was moved ~50 metres due to construction of new RAAF base buildings and is located next to the main runway.
Nobby’s (Newcastle) on the other hand has been basically at it’s same location since 1862, and up until recently was part of the BoM’s HQ Network (which ACORN replaced). The location of Nobby’s AWS is virtually free from any UHI or any other heat sources.
http://www.lighthouses.org.au/lights/NSW/Nobbys%20Head/Nobbys%20Head%20wb%201.jpg
(the white box out front is the AWS)
BTW, BEST, NOAA, CRU and GISS also use Williamtown for their ‘Newcastle’ data.
BruceC.
Thanks for the history lesson on the Williamtown air force base.
So what is your point concerning the BOMs Acorn SAT data set?
With full UAH and RSS data now available a couple of interesting points.
USA had a warm year. OK, no argument from either UAH or RSS
Australia 2015 was in 11th place in UAH.. (and Iceland reports their coldest year this century)
but here are the fun ones.
UAH NoPol… 2o15 in 13th place
UAH SoPol.. 2015 in 35th place… I’ll repeat that… 35th place
RSS 60-82.5 north 2015 in 9th place
RSS 60-7-0 south 2015 in 29th place.
Essentially , all the warmth has been coming from the tropics in the form of the persistent El Nino.
Once that subsides, the cooling has already started at the poles !!
Richard Keen
Thank you for your thoughtful response. Apparently Janice does not want to have a debate.
So you agree that CO2 has increased over 40% due to human activities and that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Apparently you don’t agree that as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to the increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses that water vapor will increase in the atmosphere. Water vapor is introduced into the atmosphere via evaporation – the rate depends on the temperature of the ocean and air, being governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation first described back in the 1850s. If you are questioning that relationship you have a lot of explaining to do. The relationship between temperature increases due to CO2 and increased water vapor has been confirmed by satellite measurements (see below).
Andrew Dessler and colleagues from Texas A&M University in College Station confirmed that the heat-amplifying effect of water vapor is potent enough to double the climate warming caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html
Luke, thanks for the link to Dessler’s article. Sure can’t argue with the headline on it:
“Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change”
since there’s 30 times as much H2O in the atmosphere as there is CO2, and many climate types claim the H2O greenhouse is responsible for 32 of the 33 degrees (C) of the planet’s greenhouse effect.
But does warming the earth add more H2O greenhouse? In other words, is a warmer climate enhanced by more “energy trapped by water vapor”? Hey, Dessler has a graph of just that – energy trapped by water vapor
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/291247main_vapor_graph_HI.jpg
Guess what – at 50 N latitude (Canada) and 60 S latitude (Antarctica) there’s much MORE energy trapped by water vapor than at 15 N latitude (Guatemala, Cambodia). So I guess that’s because the oceans at 50N and 50S are warmer, and produce more atmospheric water vapor than the oceans at 15N latitude?
Oh, is that because there’s more going on in the atmosphere to affect the water vapor content than a few tenths of a degree of CO2 warming? Things like wind, convection, currents, stability, etc. etc. etc.?
And then there’s the 500 pound canary called clouds, which climate modelers have absolutely no grasp of and which is one reason their models are so awful and useless.
Did you know that clouds reflect 30% of the incoming sunlight (that’s called albedo), and a 1% change in cloud cover has a larger effect on Earth’s radiative balance temperature than a 1% change in H2O vapor (and in the opposite direction)????
And guess what clouds are made of….