From University of Alabama, Huntsville:
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.11 C per decade
October temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.43 C (about 0.77 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.64 C (about 1.15 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.21 C (about 0.38 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.
Tropics: +0.53 C (about 0.95 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.
September temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.25 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.34 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.17 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.52 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released Nov. 3, 2015:
Powered by an El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, temperatures in October set records globally, in the Northern Hemisphere and the Tropics, while temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere pushed toward the upper end of the dataset, said Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. October 2015 was the warmest October in the 36-year satellite temperature record, pushing past October 1998 during what was then called the El Niño of the Century.
Warmest Octobers, Global
Date Warmer than seasonal norms
2015 +0.43 C
1998 +0.40 C
2003 +0.29 C
2005 +0.28 C
2014 +0.26 C
Warmest Octobers, Northern Hemisphere
Date Warmer than seasonal norms
2015 +0.64 C
1998 +0.48 C
2003 +0.46 C
2005 +0.35 C
2013 +0.33 C
Warmest Octobers, Tropics
Date Warmer than seasonal norms
2015 +0.53 C
1987 +0.40 C
1998 +0.37 C
2009 +0.34 C
2003 +0.33 C
In the Northern Hemisphere, October 2015 registered the third largest deviation from seasonal norms in the 443 month satellite temperature record, making it the third “warmest” month in the Northern Hemisphere since December 1978. October 2015 trailed only April 1998 (+0.85 C) and February 1998 (0.69 C) as the “warmest” month in the Northern Hemisphere.
“We thought this El Niño had the potential to be a record setter for some of the quantities we track, and it isn’t disappointing,” Christy said. “Not only is this a strong El Niño, but the transient warming we see from it is superimposed on top of the slowly rising global base temperature. The satellite temperature dataset shows an overall warming of about 0.39 C during the past 36 years. Put a strong El Niño on top of that and we shouldn’t be surprised at what we saw in October.”
Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest average temperature anomaly on Earth in October was over east Antarctica in Queen Maud Land. The October temperature there averaged 3.97 C (about 7.15 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest average temperature on Earth in October was southwest of New Zealand on the edge of the southern ocean, where the average October 2015 temperature was 3.33 C (about 5.99 degrees F) cooler than normal.
The complete version 6 beta lower troposphere dataset is available here:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta3
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
My utility bill thanks you El Nino.
Are they saying that this October was even warmer than October 2008, which was the warmest October ever?
Oops, my bad.
That was when Russia mistakenly sent in a repeat of the September temperatures.
RSS just came out for October at 0.440. This is only 0.067 above its September value of 0.373. That contrasts with an increase of 0.18 for UAH. October 1998 beat the 0.440 at 0.461, so for RSS, this is the second warmest October.
RSS has a 10 month average of 0.33, tying it for third with 2005. There is also no way it will get above third place in 2015. As for 2016? Who knows?
You know it Werner……they are all trying to split hairs…..claiming measurements no sane person would believe….and not putting right beside their “margin of error”
Why so concerned with single years’ ups and downs? Wait, say, 30-40 years, and then check the trend.
climatologist says “Wait, say, 30-40 years, and then check the trend.”
So we have 36 years, and it has risen 0.39 up in the troposphere, and more on the surface.
Case closed.
Yes. Well within the parameters of natural climate variability.
Nothing unusual or unprecedented has happened for 36+ years.
Case closed (although in science it’s never ‘case closed’).
More like: climate alarmism debunked. Again.
“…we have 36 years, and it has risen 0.39 up in the troposphere…”
In your mind, should that be zero change? It’s been my experience that integrators don’t hang at zero very long.
trafamadore:
Your post says in total
You don’t say which faux climatologist says “Wait, say, 30-40 years, and then check the trend.” Please say because there is no reason to wait and your quotation provides no reason.
Importantly, your data does close the case because it is definitive evidence that the warming is NOT a result of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the air. Any such GHG warming would cause MORE – n.b. more and not less – temperature rise in the troposphere than at the surface.
Richard
Although no one knows what will happen, it appears this El Nino may be peaking right now. This is 3+ months earlier than the 1997-98 El Nino and very likely the reason October is setting a record. If this view is correct then we will not see anything close to the temperatures next winter that we saw in 1998 and we are likely to see an early start to La Nina (which would be bad for CA).
This may also be why the SH is not seeing higher anomaly figures. Whatever happens the difference between this El Nino and some of the recent ones is quite entertaining. This will likely carry on to the La Nina which will be happening as we approach solar minimum. This could reduce the recharge energy that normally fuels the next El Nino.
@Menicholas November 3, 2015 at 2:19 pm
>> Dermot. read Paul Homewood’s comment for some sane perspective on this “peak”.
Yes – he puts it into perspective very well. However, such perspective on the significance of the data was not the target of my comment.
Back to the subject of my original comment, then. Your comment might be better directed at those who say the data is all compromised and isn’t to be believed. Maybe they’ll take comfort that it actually isn’t as bad as they feared, and so perversely might be more trustworthy.
>> And hey, while I have your attention, could you look at this thing I have on my shoulder?
>> Does it look like an ‘oma?
I have absolutely no idea what that is supposed to mean.
Well, you see, your name implies that you may be a dermatologist, and…nevermind.
It is only funny if you get it with no explanation.
And I have no idea at this point what you are trying to say, or what your point of view is, either.
So i guess we are even.
I thought you were implying that a one month peak during at el nino is some grave omen.
I suspect it is not.
And I do not know of anyone who believe “all” the data is compromised.
Many, including me, find that all of the chicanery with the adjustments of the historical surface data have rendered it worthless, but have no such view of these satellite readings.
Warmistas, on the other hand, seem to discount satellite data…will not even discuss it, or claim it is not relevant because no one lives in the troposphere…and instead place great faith in the altered surface records and in the GCMs.
So the pause has finally ended and just in time for COP21… Perfect!
Hold on to your wallets, I can’t wait for the endless barrage from the mainstream media. Of course they will ignore the fact the NASA has finally admitted that Antarctica is gaining ice mice causing the oceans to drop.
a difference of 0.03degC is statistically meaningless from both measurement accuracy and background noise basis.
a difference of .14degC is statistically meaningless from both measurement accuracy and background noise basis.
a difference of 0.17degc is mostly statistically meaningless from a measurement accuracy basis and still completely meaningless from a background noise basis.
saying we’ve “reached a new maximum” without showing the confidence interval on maxima is a meaningless and misleading statement.
Saying “we’re still bumbling along a slightly upslope plateau of temperatures” would be an accurate statement.
Peter
If the savings account at my bank only promised that much interest, I’d buy a bigger mattress.
not sure you’ve checked lately, but that’s about the interest you are getting these days. Funny world with zero inflation and zero interest rates. Keynes being falsified like crazy…
Peter
Peter
Zero inflation???!!!
And yet my health insurance premium just increased 275%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!@ur momisugly#$$$%
That is as absurd as calling the increase in home values an increase in equity instead of inflation.
Peter is talking at ZERO degrees rises. Inflation will always be that, inflation. Making things seem more expensive or move valuable, when in fact all we are doing is simply devaluing currency. Until the plastic “figure” bursts!
i was waiting to see this peak in the satellite records. I’m very curious to see how it will behave and if it would make a new “step”.
i think we will see some records seen the “baseline” this el nino is starting from i wouldn’t doubt that 2016 may break a record in both satellite records.
i find that they do a very good job in interpreting and placing their measurements in a correct and a very scientific context.
Good to see the trend over the past 36 years is clearly stated in the report. 0.11degC/decade doesn’t really fill me with shock and awe, and suggests we’ll struggle even to reach the fabled 2degC let alone exceed it.
Perhaps the satellite record needs “correcting” to bring it into line with what we *know* from the other datasets, much as sea level rise measured by satellites is zero but has been adjusted based on outlier terrestrial gauges. If someone could do this before Paris the politicians of the world will be grateful.
Looks like it is now snowing all over the Pacific Northwest and California and probably this winter, it will snow in Arizona, too. Been through such winters in Tucson when growing up in the 1960’s.
Learned a new term today: “Ecological Fallacy”. Been looking at statistics+geography lectures and texts lately.
In this case, it’s an Ecological Fallacy to assume that some group statistic has any meaning on what’s happening in a particular location.
Peter
+10 gold stars for Peter.
There was snow in the mountains above Albuquerque last weekend.
So…all this bodes well for the Cubs then.
And the Mets will continue to be frozen out of the game, too. 🙁
Let’s not forget that the next La Nina will also be “superimposed on top of the slowly rising global base temperature”.
Right now, it’s a field day for the heat (per Joe Bastardi).
I.P.C.C. lead author admits, after 20 years of Doomsday predictions , nothing has changed !!!
http://link.dailycaller.com/click/5465878.229403/aHR0cDovL2RhaWx5Y2FsbGVyLmNvbS8yMDE1LzExLzAzL2lwY2MtbGVhZC1hdXRob3ItMjUteWVhcnMtb2YtZmFpbGVkLWdsb2JhbC13YXJtaW5nLXBvbGljaWVzLWhhdmUtbWFkZS11cy1wb29yZXIv/5633411a17893f5f3a8b4964C32c428cb
Glad you do not used the long form of that URL!
I was late for dinner it took me so long to scroll over to the end of it.
🙂
That is a long link.
I think you could label each atom in the universe with a smaller number of possibilities than all those characters represent.
Anecdote: On the 4th and 5th of Nov the local weather service predicts temps in the low 70s. It was 68°F today. This is unusual for Northern Illinois this time of year (I live in Rockford). Normal is more like 50s for the high temp.
It has been incredibly warm this fall in SW Florida…but as we all know, that only means somewhere else must be really cold.
Even this warmest evah anomaly is only a fraction of a degree averaged out over the whole Earth.
Yes, you better hope that in the short term things average out or we are in deep sh*t no matter which way it goes… The longer term is just climate anyway.
Wonderful weather. But here in 61108 we had frost earlier.
Acquaintances agreed we need this all winter. And that -20F will come.
Here in Rockford we have had +112F and -27F. Simon and I are weather happy dudes these early November days.
I came up from Carmi, Illinois and have often wondered why. Well, I wanted a job NOT mining coal.
well if Oct was the warmest, Nov is gonna be the coldest because at this moment in central South America its been freezing for 2 weeks and its expected to continue for another 2 weeks!
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/sa.00hr.html
Looks like a good start to summer.
Why don’t they take the warming trend back to the end of the last warming period in 1940 instead of the end of the cooling period in 1976.
Because the satellites hadn’t been launched yet in 1940? Because they can only take the trend as far as their data goes?
This is why it was imperative that they altered the historical records.
if they did not cool the past, there would be nothing to this whole meme.
In 1997 (or was it ’98?) Hansen is on record as saying that there was nothing unusual about the global temps. Of course not, since at that time the 1930s to early 1094s were clearly shown to be warmer in all the data sets.
Recall that at that time…in these days…no one was claiming it had never been warmer…they were saying the rate of change exceeded anything ever seen before.
But that was shown to be untrue, as the el nino gave way to the la nina and pause that followed.
This was when they really got to work on the alterations.
aaah, typos.
…to early 1940s…
…in those days…
BTW good to see WUWT post both pro and anti warmist news LOL see we skeptics admit and publish not like the warmist crowd! haha
http://berkeleyearth.org/berkeley-earth-temperature-update/
and there is a small chance that antarctica will record a record cold year
also “Greenland Blowing Away All Records For Ice Gain”
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/greenland-blowing-away-all-records-for-ice-gain/
..and plenty of ice in the Arctic
When did records begin? Where are these records measured? Can’t be more than a couple of decades. How old is the earth? Has Antarctica always been where is it now, or was it warmer in the past (We already know that one) or colder?
Check this out:
https://youtu.be/6tmbeLTHC_0
Ah ha !! The REAL climate change monster !!
Does anyone else think it’s really WEIRD that solar EUV varies as the square root of sunspot area? Somehow looking at that square root of anything just never comes to mind.
The sun felt nice and warm today. TSI must still be up, as it has been most of October – connect the dots…
http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_3month_640x480.png
Despite the RSS jump, its pause extends by one month to 18 years and 9 months. It goes from February 1997 to October 2015.
So, what causes El Nino (and its cousin, El Nina)?
So, what caused all those previous periods of warm climate (all well before the industrial revolution)?
So, what caused all those ice ages that earth has experienced?
How is it possible that CO2 levels during at least one ice age were HIGHER than today’s levels?
Are not today’s CO2 levels at historically low levels ?
No.
Oh, goody…
Now we get to hear Leftists crow about “The warmest October eva” in perfect timing for the Paris COP21 Left-fest hitting the world stage in a couple of weeks…
Too bad this October spike was due to a strong El Nino cycle and NOT CO2, but hey, it makes for excellent propaganda, you know, the whole Machiavelli thing…..
Given the lag between strong El Nino cycles and UAH/RSS TLT temps, we’ll probably have new records broken for the next 4~6 months, until the ENSO cycle makes it shift to La Lina early/mid 2016…
I can’t wait…
And what about October in the 1930’s before adjustments?