From University of Alabama, Huntsville:
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.11 C per decade
October temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.43 C (about 0.77 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.64 C (about 1.15 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.21 C (about 0.38 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.
Tropics: +0.53 C (about 0.95 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.
September temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.25 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.34 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.17 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.52 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released Nov. 3, 2015:
Powered by an El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, temperatures in October set records globally, in the Northern Hemisphere and the Tropics, while temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere pushed toward the upper end of the dataset, said Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. October 2015 was the warmest October in the 36-year satellite temperature record, pushing past October 1998 during what was then called the El Niño of the Century.
Warmest Octobers, Global
Date Warmer than seasonal norms
2015 +0.43 C
1998 +0.40 C
2003 +0.29 C
2005 +0.28 C
2014 +0.26 C
Warmest Octobers, Northern Hemisphere
Date Warmer than seasonal norms
2015 +0.64 C
1998 +0.48 C
2003 +0.46 C
2005 +0.35 C
2013 +0.33 C
Warmest Octobers, Tropics
Date Warmer than seasonal norms
2015 +0.53 C
1987 +0.40 C
1998 +0.37 C
2009 +0.34 C
2003 +0.33 C
In the Northern Hemisphere, October 2015 registered the third largest deviation from seasonal norms in the 443 month satellite temperature record, making it the third “warmest” month in the Northern Hemisphere since December 1978. October 2015 trailed only April 1998 (+0.85 C) and February 1998 (0.69 C) as the “warmest” month in the Northern Hemisphere.
“We thought this El Niño had the potential to be a record setter for some of the quantities we track, and it isn’t disappointing,” Christy said. “Not only is this a strong El Niño, but the transient warming we see from it is superimposed on top of the slowly rising global base temperature. The satellite temperature dataset shows an overall warming of about 0.39 C during the past 36 years. Put a strong El Niño on top of that and we shouldn’t be surprised at what we saw in October.”
Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest average temperature anomaly on Earth in October was over east Antarctica in Queen Maud Land. The October temperature there averaged 3.97 C (about 7.15 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest average temperature on Earth in October was southwest of New Zealand on the edge of the southern ocean, where the average October 2015 temperature was 3.33 C (about 5.99 degrees F) cooler than normal.
The complete version 6 beta lower troposphere dataset is available here:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta3
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
Finally we may say something unprecedented went by.
Yes. This proves it. Man Made Global Warming is real. It will burn us all to crisps. We’re all gonna die.
Right on, brother.
But wait, it’s much cooler today. Fancy that.
Finally the satellite data will get some recognition.
Too bad it’s all meaningless averaging of intensive properties.
You are missing the unprecedented stuff that happens year after year because WUWT uses an odd way of showing the climate change, WUWT uses the climate definition (average of the last 30 years) to show the climate change, which basically means that the actual climate change is cancelled out in the graph. If you go to the source of the data in the diagram (NOAA) you will see the real climate change
Robert,
You’re about a couple weeks behind here. Why not comment on a curren thread?
And post your definition of “climate change”.
El Nino. Wait for the La Nina.
No surprise, really : we are in the warmest couple of decades in the last 1000 years so naturally we will break records regularly. And in the coming decades we are likely to break even more records (much to the delight of the alarmists).
Not true – the Roman Warm Period and Medeival Warm Period were both warmer than today.
Which was around a thousand years ago…
The Minoan Warming period was warmer than the Roman one from what folks can determine. Anyway, we are all doomed I tell you doomed.
Women walked around exposing their breasts it was so warm and in Egypt, they wore practically nothing during the Minoan Warm Period. Men wore only short kilts. Sigh. 🙂
Go long on sun-tan lotion.
Well, I’m looking forward to warm winter since that last one was brutal over here in Boston. Nevertheless, they can cry that the sky is falling all they want but it’ll end eventually.
Unfortunately DOG; you might get similar weather to last year since this year is a continuation of the El Nino from last year. See http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-15-16-forecast
Here in the UK, on Sunday, when trimming back our overgrown ivy (on the front of the house) there were wasps, ladybirds and tiny fruit flies. It’s November! It was also very foggy and extremely still. Not enough wind for the 3,500 or so on-shore worse-than-useless turbines to spin and the heavily blotted-out sun meant that any wealthy tree-huggers who have foolishly nailed 16 x solar panels to their roofs were regretting their £18,000 investment.
Most of the UK’s energy over the last thee-days has been from Gas & Coal with about 30% of total demand coming from either imported French nuclear, Dutch gas-fired power or Irish coal-fired power stations. If it carries on like this, the lights will definitely go out and our electricity bills will rocket to balance the import costs and green subsidies. Historically, warmer Autumns in the UK usually mean FOG, MIST and an IDLE WIND. No amount of renewable energy will solve our British weather!
You must not have paying attention to John Kerry. The warmer it gets the more severe the cold will be. Remember nothing says warming like cooling. Lol.
Beware the North Atlantic Oscillation
Well at least the warmists have got the sign (if not the magnitude) of the temperature trend right. There are many regular posters on WUWT, e.g. David Archibald, who have got it completely wrong.
How is anyone supposed to know what the trends are, given that all the data has been tortured into submission and beaten beyond recognition?
UAHv6 is one of the better ones.
I agree Jeff, and with RSS shows that the sign of the current trend is…wait for ti…no sign. Neutral. Sideways. Flat. To down.
It will not take much real cooling to form the past 19 years into a downtrend which is longer than the whole 1980-1997 warming which gave birth to this whole raft of nonsense.
BTW, I was not referring to satellite data in the above comment. Warmest since 1980 is not saying much.
If we had satellites back in the 1930s and 1940s, I strongly suspect we would have a far different view of the current situation.
What had been the warmest period of time, historically speaking, has been fraudulently erased by all of the so-called adjustments.
That is what I was saying…just to be clear.
No one should forget for a second how clearly the historical surface data has been tampered with… made cooler prior to 1960, and warmer after that.
“And in the coming decades we are likely to break even more records (much to the delight of the alarmists).”
If it is such bad news…how come it makes them so happy?
Everything bad they predict that never comes true should have made them the most happy optimists the world has ever known.
“how come it makes them so happy?” I don’t know , perhaps there is public money available to study this.
Menicholas, that’s always been my thoughts too. The doom-and-gloomers get so upset when there is no calamity upon us and so thrilled when a disaster hits – anybody, anywhere. They want the end of the world more than anything else – or maybe just to be proven right – either way, though, for money or righteousness or any other reason, I swear they would be dancing in the street if they ever got their way.
How sick is that!
Menicholas – you mean “the most happy pessimists”
Andy, what I really meant was that any normal person with any normal belief that had been so thoroughly demonstrated wrong would be an optimist by now, now matter how gloomy and pessimistic they started out.
It is hard to even remember all of the failed predictions and projections and imminent crises that never materialized…going all the way back to the 1980s.
It defies comprehension how anyone still believes it!
“…If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.
Cheers, Phil ”
(…Jones, of course)
“In Science, when we understand a system, we can predict its behavior. If not, we do not understand the system.”- John Christy
It is important to stress that even with this being a record high temperature for October, it is still far below the calculated predictions of the 102 climate models that are based upon the theory that CO2 will cause catastrophic warming. All of the models are wrong.
NONE of these climate models have demonstrated any predictive ability.
Yet we are to use these same models to make sweeping, expensive, harmful and ineffective policy decisions?
Barking Mad. What a species.
The problem is that the warmists are chronically unhappy and miserable, and delight in nothing more than sharing their misery and unhappiness with others. Doombaya, Lord, Doombaya…
For every heat record, there’s a cold record set somewhere else. Records are made to be broken, and they are every day – somewhere – both hot and cold. Since my hometown’s hottest day on record (115 f) was set in 1961, that must prove we are experiencing dramatic cooling since.
Its only relative to the satellite era anyhow. There is so little data to make any sort of ‘unprecedented’ claim as to be close to ridiculous, we cant even compare to temperatures in the early to mid 20th century with any real reference to global averages or global sea surface temperatures.
It is so tedious and boring to be repeatedly faced with misleading statements and interpretations. I would say at least another 100 years of satellite data will be needed before any accurate assessment of what goes on can be made and even that is unlikely as the cyclical nature of variability in the climate runs into many hundreds/thousands of years.
Well, I expect the warmistas will get maximum mileage out of this one.
We may never hear the end of it.
Of course, that it is correlated only to an el nino event will matter naught to them,.
Warmest October, and yet there’s been hail the size of golf balls in Saudi Arabia, and 90% of the world’s glaciers are growing.
Can you provide a reference for the astounding claim that 90% of the world’s glaciers are growing? The World Glacier Monitoring Service reports preliminary result sfor 2014/15:
“The average mass balance of the glaciers with available long-term observation series around the world continues to be negative, with tentative figures indicating a further thickness reduction of 0.84 metres water equivalent (m w.e.) during the hydrological year 2014. The new data continues the global trend in strong ice loss over the past few decades…”
http://wgms.ch/latest-glacier-mass-balance-data/
Reference noaa report on Antarctica and the fact that is where 90% of the glaciers are. Plus we know glaciers are growing in the Scotland highlands. Greenland is near record increase in ice there since September. That number could be closer to 95%
Since we live on California’s Central Coast, we have been experiencing El Niño first hand in Oct. El Niño brought us warmer nights and more humidity than is typical on this part of the coast. The map clearly shows the El Niño effected area.
We are all hoping that this El Niño does not fizzle like the last one. We would like plenty of storms like the one yesterday which delivered a good soaking rain.
It’s interesting that after all the El Niño hype that we heard through the summer months, there has been some acknowledgement that this one might fail, since “we” really do not understand how El Niños work. Imagine that! The same people who claim with certainty that they can tell us what the global temperature will be in 2100, can’t say with confidence that this year’s El Niño will be as strong as they told us just a couple of months ago.
Thanks, Dr. Christy. I’ll get your graphic ready for showing in ARVAL when it appears in http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
“The satellite temperature dataset shows an overall warming of about 0.39 C during the past 36 years.” will be quoted.
Does ANYBODY Believe this shit??
I don’t .. every week we are bombarded with some alleged record, superstorm, wild fire, drought, flood.. all supposedly unprecedented until one performs a .001s search on Google..
Climate History reveals all this shit has happened before.. been far worse..
UAHv6 is one of the better temperature records. I tend to belive this one. The recent “Largest cyclone in history (in the east pacific), well not sure I believed that one…
+1 Jeff in Calgary. I don’t understand the negative comments. Measure it and wait. Depends on perspective. Some ski resorts in the Canadian Rockies are opening later this week. A fraction of a degree globally isn’t a big deal. Regional climates may vary. (I read something similar to that on a label somewhere – “Actual results may vary”).
Folks – look at the graphic from 1978 to 2015, and in particular the 1998 El Nino bump. Now shift the post 1998 “zero” line up to 0.3 degrees and look at the pattern. Look familiar? -0.4 to +0.4 in general but really following the same pattern. Does that scare anyone? Certainly doesn’t bother me.
Well, gotta go put the winter tires on. Have a pleasant day.
Maxima when on a slightly rising trend are ubiquitous. So there’s no surprise here at all. It’s statistically highly probable to have lots of maxima. So any statements about it are statistically meaningless and unsurprising.
Peter
@ur momisugly Wayne, if you live in BC you would have to have those tires on by Oct 1 big fines if not, the first snow this year that was down to 1000 meters was today Nov 1 , they’ll get us coming and going.
Asybot – actually the rule is “winter tires or carry chains”. ( I may be wrong, but it may only apply to posted. ). I carry chains all year round in both my truck and SUV ’cause it can snow in the mountains all year round plus chains sometimes needed in the mud off pavement. Fact is I have used chains more often in the summer than the winter. I travel regularly in BC and normally would have winter tires on by now. But although the first snow where I live was September 3rd this year, it melted in a few days. We’ve had several snowfalls but the roads are still bare but they won’t be soon.
The BC rule is a good rule. Too many people don’t understand the incredible difference between so called all season and winter tires. Legislation takes the guesswork out and makes uneducated drivers get the message.
I have been using winter tires all 7 decades of my life. The only variation is weather and when to put them on.
In Quebec, you have no choice about when to install them. It’s the law and a good law. Significantly reduced accident rates since introduction of the law.
Now if we had that kind of correlation/causation for Global Warming it would be fantastic for our grandchildren.
Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest average temperature anomaly on Earth in October was over east Antarctica in Queen Maud Land. The October temperature there averaged 3.97 C (about 7.15 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms.
Still didn’t get above freezing point though! (Guess this is why Antarctica is gaining ice mass.)
A clever slip from the neutral point of view: “We thought this El Niño had the potential to be a record setter for some of the quantities we track, and it isn’t disappointing”
On order for CoP but how long will it last? BoM said last week:
Also note some maturity in the debate indicated by CSIRO now distinguishing between natural and manmade climate change in their vox pop…and 40% Ozzie punters going for nature.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-04/majority-of-australians-believe-in-climate-change-csiro-report/6909940
I think the former prime minister Abbotts government didn’t cut the funding deep enough if the CSIRO can waste money on self serving polls!
I think the “trick” here is in the question they asked.
The “gotcha” question, do you believe in climate change, is a no brainer and only a fool would answer no.
But ask the question like a statement from the alarmists like,
“do you believe in catostrophic anthropological global armegedon that will see us and the planet reduced to an unlivable cinder by the end of the century unless we spend billions to save the children and the blue breasted bottled nose goat and the……(insert your own ideolygy driven senseless cause)?”
That’d give their deceptive poll a bit of “respectability”.
“and 40% Ozzie punters going for nature.” What does that mean?
A record for one month is pretty meaningless.
For instance, April 1998 hit 0.74c anomaly, way above last month.
March 2010 also reached 0.50c.
Indeed the whole of 1998 averaged higher than last month’s “record”.
The bottom line is that this year will be nowhere near as hot as 1998 or 2010
__
That is for sure! To break the 1998 record requires an average of 1.66 for the next two months, and to break 2010 requires 0.834 for the next two months.
Also worth noting is that the tropics were 0.53 C this October. While this is the warmest October, the first four months in 1998 were all over 1.0 in the tropics.
But next year might.
Depending on who you talk to, I would say it definitely will be, it definitely will not be, and it may possibly be…we shall have to see.
Eek. Scientists suggest next year might be nearly as warm as couple of other years during the last two decades.
And this is so horrible, so horrible. We might see new butterflies, and could, gasp, need to ditch some Belgian beers. In the mean time, don’t forget your woolly socks. The night is gonna be cold.
One consequence of this increased anomaly, is that, if it persists for another 2 months, the “Pause” will disappear, from UAH, at least.
The trends in RSS are slightly different, and that Pause will hang on for another 6 months.
I calculated October as the 25th warmest monthly anomaly so meh.
Well, as I tell the warmists: of course its warming. We’re coming out of an ice age, what SHOULD it be doing.
Usually, but not always, shuts them up. For a few seconds until they can get another snappy comeback from a warmist blog or two.
John Cook’s website, skepticalscience, seems to be a very popular place for the warmists.
“John Cook’s website, skepticalscience, seems to be a very popular place for the warmists.”
Ya think?
Is that you Captain?
http://image.cdn.ispot.tv/ad/7pGD/hotels-com-captain-obvious-tip-large-3.jpg
Actually it should be cooling. The peak warming following the LGM occurred around 8,000 years ago.
Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 11,800 CE ; the last maximum was reached in 8,700 BCE. This trend in forcing, by itself, tends to make winters warmer and summers colder (i.e. milder seasons), as well as cause an overall cooling trend.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
Are you of the opinion that the Milankovich cycles are 100% the cause of all historical variations?
If so. that is a particularly bone-headed opinion, contrary to a veritable mountain of data.
Lets have a look see at a former warmista darling…the ice core records…shall we?
http://www.21stcentech.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Greenland-ice-core-data.png
Anyway, my trollish friend…you were saying?
Well, Antarctic ice is growing according to Nasa, so… but I don’t agree it’s a good thing.
OK, but I think he meant that we are in the climate recovery after the “LITTLE ice age” since about 1850…
No – but they appear to explain the global scale variations, i.e. the glacial/interglacial periods.
You appear to have posted a graphic depicting Greenland historical temperatures. That would be an example of a regional variation – almost certainly caused by internal variability. That is not the same as change in the energy balance caused by solar (e.g. milankovitch forcing) or ghg forcing.
Incidentally, I’m far from being an alarmist. I fully expect the world to warm over the next century or so but I don’t expect the warming to be a problem.
The Milankovich cycles was a one time favorite of mine, and seem to have some influence, but they are far from explaining everything.
For one thing, the cycles vary smoothly over time, but the ice ages begin suddenly and end suddenly.
And the Younger-Dryas period is completely unexplained by Milankovich cycles.
Anyone wanting to know the whole story would have to be very unsatisfied with using the four parameters to try and explain everything.
They clearly do not.
And as for your stipulation that the ice cores represent only regional variations, that is much disputed as well.
Before we get into a pointless back and forth over a possibly split hair, do you also believe that the LIA and MWP were “regional” events, with no correlation to worldwide trends?
Re the LIA: With Mount Rinjani on Lombok stopping flights from Perth to Bali in the last few days, it is a reminder that the Earth may throw up a suprise (I just love Geology):
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/15/13th-century-volcano-mystery-eruption-may-be-solved/
“Incidentally, I’m far from being an alarmist. I fully expect the world to warm over the next century or so but I don’t expect the warming to be a problem.”
Unlike you John, I do not know what future holds, and to not pretend to have any idea that my guess is worth more than a flipped coin anyway.
You expect warming, and those who think they know what will happen are subject to confirmation bias, rejecting data which does not support their preconceived notions.
This is a well known psychological mechanism…it takes a lot of will power to expect something will happen but acknowledge it when you are wrong.
Why do you “fully expect the world to warm”, over any particular interval?
I personally go where the data lead, and reject the opinions of people who claim the ability to read the future.
But that is just me, and is likely due to many years of being trained in the scientific method.
There are some who say that low solar activity leads to increased volcanism and even earthquakes.
I think we will know more in 15 years…long enough to provisionally validate or falsify some of these ideas.
Awww, I like this graph, as it means doom by freezing…..
http://www.thelivingmoon.com/47brotherthebig/04images/Antarctica/415k-year-temp-graph.jpg
John Finn – Yes, you are right. The earth IS cooling overall; if only you pick the right initial starting point : My idea is to start at the climatic maximum ca. 8000 years ago as you suggest.. But in between, if you look at the graphs with temperatures, you can make any amount of ups or downs in the line if you cherry-pick among the various ages. That is why, of course, the alarmists choose to see only the last few hundred years when temps. have indeed risen – and are probably still rising slowly (in spite of “the pause”.
Angular momentum sum of 9 planets and Sun.
http://semi.gurroa.cz/Orbital/AngMoment_Sum3j_0100-2200_406jm.png
“The high peaks are during times, when the Sun approaches the solar-system barycenter. At these times, the space curvature arround the Sun center plays significant role in calculating distances and the angular momentum, but I could not find a propper equation for a space curvature to cancel these, so I instead just clip the chart vertically…
Without the space curvature, these events would disrupt the conservation of angular momentum significantly…
The first derivation of angular momentum sum only little matches the sun-spot cycle, but the high-peak at 1990 could be correlated with a drop of solar-flare activity at the middle of preceeding sun-spot cycle 22. …
The “wave” of approximate period of 854 years, which could be anti-correlated with Sun spin rate, seems to match the climatologic events of Medieval optimum and Global warming, and also the Little Ice age of Maunder minimum, and similar periods in earlier ages…
If this is the case, now the Solar activity could drop a little, but will approach a larger maximum arround year 2050, not disturbed by the peak anomally, and then drop to a next little-ice-age arround 2400 AD.
The time-lag between the spin rate change and activity change is still uncertain…”
http://semi.gurroa.cz/Orbital/AngMoment.html
Note what followed the peaks in 1998 and 2010. The long-term trend is down. An equation that calculates average global temperatures that are a 97% match with measured temperatures since before 1900 is at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com The equation uses only one natural, publicly available input.
The divergence between observations and calculated trend after 2010 doesn’t bother you then.
The divergence is partly an artifact of smoothing in EXCEL (it ignores blanks so the last point is really the average of the last 3 points instead of 5. Also, temporary divergence is not uncommon. What really bothers me is NASA and others possibly ‘cooking the books’ to corroborate an agenda.
Divergence doesn’t bother Michael Mann…aside from trying to hide it.
Divergence doesn’t bother the warmists who’ve seen their models drifting further from reality.
Yes, a lot of very warm surface water is releasing it’s heat, which is then transported in a general pole-wards and space-wards direction.
Once the winds reverse, the atmosphere will be left even cooler than the amount by which it warmed warmed during the warm phase.
If this comment is intended for me then I think you ought to take a look at the link in Dan Pangburn’s post. It shows a reconstruction of global temperature using the “integral” of the sunspot number (though it probably uses obsolete data). The thing to note is that there is a very tight relationship with the observed temperature record throughout the period 1600-2008. However, the relationship looks to be falling apart after about 2009. In fact, in another couple of years I doubt the predicted temperature will be within 2 SD of the observed temperature – which must be a record time for a failure in climate prediction circles.
How much would you be prepared to bet on this? Obviously there will be some cooling following the peak of the current El Nino but the long term (decadal) trend will almost certainly be positive. To be honest these nonsensical pseudo-scientific pronouncements We’ve had cooling predictions for at least 20 years and all we appear to have had is a pause due to ocean circulation similar to that which reversed the 1915-45 warning.
No, your comment had not posted on my feed when I replied to Dan. If I replied to you my comment would be nested inside the margin of yours.
So, observing that la ninas are often cooler than the preceding el nino year is now pseudo scientific?
Really?
And what of your WAG that the decadal trend “will almost certainly be positive”?
Project much?
John – you said “though it probably uses obsolete data” It’s a challenge to keep up with the changes. There are even different assessments of SSN. The coefficients (A, B, C, D,) change a bit but the method is robust. I have used several different data sets (more than 7) and they all get a 97% or so match.
All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
Hold on…does this mean Christie and Spencer are also in on this tax-funder bankrolled scam?! Is there no one left to trust?!?!
It’s only a matter of time before the get to the satellites as well. Fortunately so much else is going wrong for them that I doubt even that ploy would work now.
Maybe they have hacked the satellites.
maybe when I retire, Exxon Mobil will be nice enuf to pick up the tab…then you can trust the data. 😉
Dear Prof. Spencer,
What is the significance of the 0.43-0.40 difference? Or, what is the uncertainty on the 0.43 quantity?
Thanks,
SLL
Nooo! The bountiful crops and balmy weather are going to kill us all!
Oh, heavens no///it is not the warmth and lunch vegetation that will do us in…it is the loss of a small fraction of our life sustaining polar wastelands.
How are humans supposed to live through the catastrophe of some melting ice, thousands of miles away, and far from where any one actually lives?
Meant to say lush vegetation…but lunch vegetation works for me too.
Plus it is a nod to all of our vegan friendly travelers.
Vegans. Yum.
Yup warmist Oct Ever, well tell that to the Saudis.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1225825/Moment-Saudi-Arabia-hit-ice-storm-flash-flood.html
I know just weather.
michael
A whole 1/2 a degree……and no one knows if it’s natural or not
Frankly….I don’t care…..it’s all looking very silly
Really? Is that why you’ve posted hundreds of comments on this subject over the years.
it’s all looking very silly…..is current John…please try to keep up
No John, even a horse’s patoot should know the number is well up into the thousands.
And not believing it is a disaster has always been one of the principle distinctions between warmistas and sane people.
The problem now, after #NOAAgate is that I wouldn’t believe any temperature produced by any of these organisations unless it doesn’t show what they desperately want it to show.
Keep in mind that UAH6.0 and RSS are now very similar, yet the main people involved are on opposite sides of the fence. So I believe you can trust both satellite data sets.
Their results may be very similar but they refer to different regions of the atmosphere, the UAH product includes more of the lower stratosphere.
All the more reason to believe that the numbers are accurate, no?
One would expect that various layers would move in concert, being that they are…oh, I do not know…right adjacent to each other!
So satellite measurements of atmospheric temperature, free from all station siting bias and urban heat island effects are showing a new peak, and many here don’t believe it?
Boy, Dr Spencer just can’t catch a break. He received more than his fair share of abuse and attempts at discrediting his work from the warmist side when the numbers weren’t going their way, and now when they aren’t going the way sceptics think they should, they turn on him too?
“the(y) get to the satellites too”,
“all the data has been tortured into submission”,
“I wouldn’t believe any temperature produced by any of these organisations unless it doesn’t show what they desperately want it to show.”
Did anyone here think “Oh? That’s not what I though would happen. Maybe…..” ?
Agree. Respect the data. It is warm, just don’t jump to conclusions. This is El Nino, not Gavin’s Karlized LOTI.
Dermot. read Paul Homewood’s comment for some sane perspective on this “peak”.
And hey, while I have your attention, could you look at this thing I have on my shoulder?
Does it look like an ‘oma?
Dr. Spencer and Dr. Christy have my utmost respect as scientists of high integrity. They follow the data where it leads them instead of herding the data into the chiropractor’s office to be adjusted.
I will repeat what I said up thread:
“In Science, when we understand a system, we can predict its behavior. If not, we do not understand the system.”- John Christy
It is important to stress that even with this being a record high temperature for October, it is still far below the calculated predictions of the 102 climate models that are based upon the theory that CO2 will cause catastrophic warming. All of the models have been wrong.
NONE of these climate models have demonstrated any predictive ability.
Yet we are to use these same models to make sweeping, expensive, harmful and ineffective policy decisions?
I for one am a global warming advocate. I hope it warms. Previous warm periods are referred to as ‘climatic optimums’. Will it warm? I can not predict that. Will it change? Undoubtedly, if the past is any indicator of the future.
A world with more CO2 will be a more prolific and abundant biologic world. That is a scientific prediction that holds up under rigorous experimental testing.
More CO2 = More plant growth.
‘Zackly S.S.!
I really think that UAHv6.0 is about as good as it gets. But please don’t try to scare me with less than 1/2°C of warming. That is like a flee sneez.
I think UAH and RSS are VERY good from a data perspective. And if they show warming, then whatever they are measuring is probably warming.
But THE QUESTION is WHY?
No one can answer that. There are dozens of proposals including GHG’s and in particular CO2 since it can be measured and taxed. Next we can tax children as they cause UHI, more CO2 and need more energy, and use up resources. So instead of a Child Tax Benefit, we just remove the benefit part. That should work, shouldn’t it?
Dang. Now I really do have to go put my winter tires on. With the return to Standard Mountain Time, I only have a little over an hour of daylight left.
Actually we can answer it. It’s being caused by the current El Nino.
…and 2016 will be the hottest year ever. Depending on who wins in 2016 (and who they appoint to run NOAA, NASA, EPA, etc), 2017 might be the hottest ever. In fact, if the media had their way, every year would be the hottest ever, even when ice sheets are advancing on Canadian cities.
Morlock
That sure must have been a hot day there for all that heat and moisture to have been swept up in such quantities to high altitude and precipitated back to Earth as hail and rain.
The whole issue of hottest ever would quickly fade if the reporting agencies were required to also report the dates when the record was adjusted. 2015 the warmest ever according to and after the adjustments of 2015, 2001, … 1998… on down.
Okay, so we have a higher reference peak from which the turn down of ENSO, AMO, solar, and others swing the other way. At least the heat content required to stay warm will be good for carbon tax revenues. That should be good for a few more $43 million alternative gas stations in Afghanistan.
Paris Translation: Waiter, we need five more bottles of champagne at our table. And bring the private reserve red wines too.
With this unusual (to a mere human) widespread efflux of warmth like a modoki El Nino plus PDO Nor-east Pacific reversal to warmth, interesting questions arise. I suppose time and observation will answer them.
How much warm water is left under the North Pacific?
What is the reaction of the salmon fishery, a bellwether? And the Peruvian?
Did winds cause the currents which piled warmth against coastal Norwest America, and if so, what were the synoptics of that weather system?
I imagine Bob Tisdale would have the sort of data needed……. Various changes (cool blobs, SOI neutrality?} seem to be in train too. Any observations?
That coolness off New Zealand is noticeable to me still, water temps down a degree or two, snow falling down south nowl. Glad we don’t have the ‘warmth’ of Maude Land though. Both might be connected with Nino’s raised gradient and intensity of southern storms connecting ice to temperate zones, really pumping nonstop.
Heat happens.
The cause?
+1
Too bad some of that warming didn’t reach eastern Canada. We’ve just experienced one of the coolest Octobers in recent years with a very early snowfall (which often does not occur until late November or December) and many frosty nights.
spock, i also live in eastern Canada; lower New Brunswick. We had the mildest October I remember in many years.
Froze a lot here too in upstate NY. Finally, this week, we have a normal Indian Summer something we didn’t have for several years.