The Week That Was: 2015-10-24 (October 24, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Bonn Conference: The Bonn Climate Change Conference, October 19 to 23, 2015, apparently ended. This was billed as the last conference before the 21st Conference of Parties (COP-21) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) scheduled between November 30 and December 11 in Paris. One is not sure if the Bonn Conference is over, because these conferences seem to be endless, similar to the conference Richard Feynman describes (see quote above). However, a 51 page Draft Agreement, “Version of 23 October 2015@23:30hrs” was release. It is a much revised version of the shorter draft agreement with which the conference started.
The countless press releases and articles conference can be summed as follows: The delegates from the developed West (mainly Western Europe and the US) are saying that in order to “save the world” we have to stop the use of fossil fuels, even though they are needed for economic development. The delegates from the developing world, identified as the G-77 + China, are saying if you want us to stop development show us the money, namely the $100 Billion per year the West promised in Copenhagen in 2009.
Few dare mention it, but there seems to be an issue of trust involved. Why should the G-77+ China trust the West, who promise to punish their own citizens by crippling their own economies? The G-77 + China see the benefits of the enormous economic growth occurring in China and south Asia from the use of fossil fuels. Also, they see that renewables, which the West promotes as replacements, namely solar and wind, are not working as promoted. There are substantial reasons for a lack of trust, which does not bode well for a binding agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, namely carbon dioxide (CO2), at the COP 21 in Paris. See Article # 1, links under Problems in the Orthodoxy, On to Paris, and http://firstname.lastname@example.org
Quote of the Week: “This conference was worse than a Rorschach test: There’s a meaningless inkblot, and the others ask you what you think you see, but when you tell them, they start arguing with you!” ― Richard Feynman, Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman!
Number of the Week: 16, then 24, now 26?
“Real” Electricity: Ironically, during the Bonn Conference, the Scientific American, certainly more conformist than skeptical to the view of human-caused catastrophic global warming, contained an article that reiterated a year-old incident with some villagers in India, when Greenpeace proposed to install solar panels to generate electricity. As the article states:
“One year ago, environmentalists hailed this tiny village [Dharnai] as the future of clean energy in rural India. Today, it is powered by coal.
“When the former chief minister of Bihar state visited to inaugurate the grid, villagers lined up to protest, chanting, ‘We want real electricity, not fake electricity!’
“By ‘real,’ they meant power from the central grid, generated mostly using coal. By ‘fake,’ they meant solar.
“If you don’t find bottled water to drink, you have to settle for water from the hand pump,’ he [a community engineer] said. ‘Similarly, when we did not have real electricity, we had to make do with solar power.’”
The incident is illustrative, and applies to those who promote solar and wind. Why trust an organization that promotes an unreliable, untrustworthy form of electricity generation when reliable, trustworthy ones are available? See links under Return of King Coal.
Untrustworthy Wind Power: In April 2013, The Scientific Alliance published an analysis on UK wind power covering January 2011 to December 2012 by Derek Partington. Mr. Partington has a degree in physics, was, formerly, a Chartered Engineer, and a member of the Institute of Physics and the Institute of Measurement and Control. He has been undertaking research into wind turbines for over 6 years and recently published an update to his earlier work with data covering 2013 and 2014. The data covers all wind turbines in the UK that are metered by the National Grid.
The UK has experienced a significant increase in onshore and offshore wind turbine capacity from 2012 to 2014 with 5,894 MW monitored in January 2013 to 8,403 MW monitored in January 2015, or a growth of about 43%. The general question is: Do more wind turbines improve reliability – trustworthiness in this form of electricity generation. The general answer is NO!
More specifically, Mr Partington asks and answers four questions:
1. “Do more wind turbines improve average output? No.
2. Do more wind turbines reduce the periods of low or very low output? No.
3. Do more wind turbines reduce intermittency? No.
4. Do more wind turbines make it possible to close any conventional, fossil-fuel power stations by making up for additional demand on the grid on peak times? No.”
Mr. Partington concludes: “Based on the results of this and my previous analysis I cannot see why any policy for the continued increase in the number of wind turbines connected to the Grid can be justified.”
This is yet another example that adding additional units of an unreliable, untrustworthy form of electricity generation does not make the system reliable or trustworthy. See links under
Questioning European Green.
EPA’s Endangerment Finding: The state of Minnesota is holding administrative hearings on the social costs of carbon, which many Washington entities are busily calculating, while ignoring the tremendous benefits of carbon dioxide for plants and the environment. Without green plants would die, so would most life on the planet. The concept of a social cost of carbon (dioxide) depends on the findings of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In turn, the EPA’s 2009 claim that greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, endanger human health and welfare (Endangerment Finding).
In his testimony and exhibits, MIT Professor Emeritus Richard Lindzen neatly summarized some of the flaws of the IPCC findings, and with it the flaws in the EPA’s EF. Main points include:
· The models used by the IPCC to predict (project) future temperatures are flawed.
· Thus, the models used to predict (project) future economic damages are flawed.
· There is no indication the Earth’s climate is “changing” other than what is natural.
· The IPCC’s estimate of the sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is done incorrectly.
· Recent studies indicate, at most, a mild warming with a doubling of CO2.
Lindzen provides additional detail to support these judgements, to include past warm periods, such as the one from about 1895 to 1946, which the IPCC ignores. Also, he states that there is no firm relationship between human CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. [An undetermined part of the increase in atmospheric CO2 may come outgassing of CO2 by the oceans from a natural warming of the oceans, as occurred during past interglacial periods.]
Unfortunately, this entire process is necessary to place into court records that the science is far from settled and human emissions of CO2 are not destroying the planet. For more details on testimony by Lindzen, William Happer, and Roy Spencer see links under Seeking a Common Ground.
Pink Flamingos? The financial concept of a Black Swan was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who used it to explain investment strategies that depend on highly improbable events occurring. Each day, the financial investment [speculation] on an improbable event may be tiny, but if and when the event occurs, the return [rewards] can be huge. As Judith Curry presents on Climate Etc.:
“According to Taleb, a Black Swan event has three characteristics:
· It is a surprise to governments, experts and outside observers.
· The event has a major impact.
· After the first instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight (which also is why a Black Swan event never happens the same way twice).”
As usual, the concept was picked up by others who change it.
“For a while there was an effort on the part of government agencies and experts in various fields to use the Black Swan Theory as a basis for anticipating surprises. Just come up with a list of impossible scenarios and try and work backwards to find evidence to support one versus another. Of course, Taleb never suggests any such thing. He argued that it is not possible to predict Black Swans and hence the proper strategy is to increase the resilience to negative events and create a reserve capacity to exploit positive ones.”
A military strategist, Frank Hoffman, added another concept – the Pink Flamingo. The Pink Flamingo can be roughly described as leaders so obtuse in their political thinking that they ignore the obvious. In his testimony (above) about the IPCC, Richard Lindzen highlights a few of the Pink Flamingos that Western leaders ignore. The road to Paris is lined with Pink Flamingos. Apparently, they are seen by the G-77 + China, but not by the western delegates to the COP-21. See links under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
New Documentary: On October 21 a new documentary premiered: Where the Grass is Greener: Biblical Stewardship vs. Climate Alarmism, by the Cornwall Alliance. Many of those appearing in the film are scientists expressing skepticism over the science presented by the IPCC. Unrehearsed, a number of those scientists recited effective quotes from Richard Feynman,
Participants included three members of the SEPP board of directors, featuring Chairman S. Fred Singer. Near the end of the film, SEPP board member Tom Sheahen expressed well that there is no conflict between science and religion, and there is skepticism about the claim that humans are causing dire global warming. Apparently, the film is not yet available but some of the interviews are. See link under Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope – Loyal Opposition
BP Oil Market Analysis: BP is noted for its excellent analyses of the oil market to include projections. In a time of market uncertainty, when analysists are giving wildly conflicting estimates of the future of the oil market, Spencer Dale, the BP group chief economist, offers a refreshingly direct analysis at the UK Society of Business Economists Annual Conference.
Among the major points are: Oil is a flexible resource, dependent on price and technology, including new discoveries. “The key point here is that the nature of fracking is far more akin to a standardised, repeated, manufacturing-like process, rather than the one-off, large scale engineering projects that characterise many conventional oil projects.” [Do the strong productivity gains in fracking apply outside the US?]
Demand and supply curves are steep (inelastic) – shale with low fixed costs, high variable costs, the opposite of advantages to large integrated companies with high fixed costs, followed by low variable cost [shale operators require external financing]. Quantitative easing may have helped oil companies to get the needed financing [but many are funded by limited partnerships or similar structures.] The steep demand and supply curves (inelastic) tend to become elastic (less steep) with time.]
According to Dale, the US will be self-sufficient in energy by the early 2020s and in oil by the early 2030s. By contrast China and India will be more dependent on oil, resulting in East to West flow of funds issues.
Does OPEC stabilize the market? The assumption was never correct, except in temporary shocks. OPEC countries have had major supply disruptions – civil war. OPEC cannot stabilize in response to structural shocks. OPEC will now try to maintain market share.
Shale will be a persistent source of oil production
A new framework for analysis is required: 1) Oil is not likely to be exhausted. 2) Shale is more responsive to price, than conventional oil; 3) Oil will flow from west to east [Asia]; 4) OPEC will remain a central force, but not the market dominating force many believe it is. See links under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Number of the Week: 14, then 24, now 26? Before the Federal Courts would grant standing to parties that wish to sue Federal Government, mainly the EPA, for the Administration’s power plan, called the “Clean Power Plan,” the plan had to be published in the Federal Register. The Administration delayed publishing it. Friday, October 23, was the first day litigation could be filed, at the US Circuit of Appeals for the District of Columbia.
Early estimates were that 14 states would file in a joint action. Almost immediately, the joint action was filed with 24 states. By Friday afternoon, two other states filed similar, but separate actions, bringing the total to 26 out of 50 states objecting to the Administration’s plan to control CO2 emissions.
Given this, it will be interesting, and sad, to see how the Administration will try to explain to the G-77 + China, in Paris, how the nation supports its plan to control CO2 emissions and how the US will provide a major share of the $100 billion demanded by the G-77 + China, without Senate approval of a treaty. See links under The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back
Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. Paris Climate Conference is likely to fail
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Oct 21, 2015
SUMMARY: COP-21, the 21st Conference of the Parties (to the Global Climate Treaty) is convening in Paris (November 30 to December 11, 2015) to try to impose global restrictions on the emission of the greenhouse (GH) gas carbon dioxide. The usual cast of characters will show up – delegates from nearly 200 nations, who have made a life-time career out of the climate business, plus some 15,000 hangers-on. We think they will fail to reach an effective international agreement—for a variety of reasons: Important developing countries have other priorities; scandals are brewing and may flare up; and the climate itself is not cooperating. But the media will portray Paris as a huge success, trying to burnish the environmental-climate legacy of President Barack Obama.
2. This Child Doesn’t Need a Solar Panel
Spending billions of dollars on climate-related aid in countries that need help with tuberculosis, malaria and malnutrition.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, Oct 21, 2015
Link to statistics: Aid activities targeting Global Environmental Objectives
By Staff Writers, OECD.St, Accessed Oct 22, 2015
Rachel Kyte, World Bank vice president and special envoy for climate change, recently told the Guardian (U.K.) newspaper that the $100 billion figure “was picked out of the air at Copenhagen” in an attempt to rescue a last-minute deal. Yet achieving that arbitrary goal is now seen as fundamental to the success of the Paris summit.
SUMMARY: Lomborg discusses the misallocation of funds by those involved in the UN-FCCC in Paris.
“…rich countries and development organizations are scrambling to join the fashionable ranks of “climate aid” donors. This effectively means telling the world’s worst-off people, suffering from tuberculosis, malaria or malnutrition, that what they really need isn’t medicine, mosquito nets or micronutrients, but a solar panel. It is terrible news.
“On Oct. 9, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim pledged a one-third increase in the bank’s direct climate-related financing, bringing the bank’s annual total to an estimated $29 billion by 2020. In September, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to match President Obama’s promised $3 billion in aid to the U.N.’s Green Climate Fund. Meanwhile, the U.K is diverting $8.9 billion from its overseas aid budget to climate-related aid over the next five years, and France is promising $5.6 billion annually by 2020, up from $3.4 billion today. The African Development Bank is planning to triple its climate-related investments to more than $5 billion a year by 2020, representing 40% of its total portfolio.
“This is deeply troubling because aid is being diverted to climate-related matters at the expense of improved public health, education and economic development. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has analyzed about 70% of total global development aid and found that about one in four of those dollars goes to climate-related aid.
“In a world in which malnourishment continues to claim at least 1.4 million children’s lives each year, 1.2 billion people live in extreme poverty, and 2.6 billion lack clean drinking water and sanitation, this growing emphasis on climate aid is immoral.
“Not surprisingly, in an online U.N. survey of more than eight million people from around the globe, respondents from the world’s poorest countries rank ‘action taken on climate change’ dead last out of 16 categories when asked ‘What matters most to you?’ Top priorities are ‘a good education,’ ‘better health care, ‘better job opportunities,’ ‘an honest and responsive government,’ and ‘affordable, nutritious food.’
3. A Rare-Earths Economics Lesson
How markets defeated China’s attempt at minerals mercantilism.
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 21, 2015
SUMMARY: “America’s only rare-earths mine suspended operations this week amid the bankruptcy of its owner, Colorado-based Molycorp Inc. Does this mean China is succeeding in controlling the world market for strategic minerals used in missiles, smartphones, electric cars and other high-tech products? Far from it.
“Much has changed since Beijing sparked a rare-earths panic in 2010. China was home to 95% of the world’s production, so when it tightened export quotas by 40% and then cut off shipments to Japan over a territorial dispute, buyers world-wide feared scarcity and prices rose tenfold. Then the laws of economic gravity kicked in.
Much has changed since 2010, including new supplies of the metals and possible substitutes. Hybrid batteries, magnets using less rare earths, are examples of substitutes.
“By 2012 the world faced a glut of rare earths. Prices collapsed as much as 80%. Small players that had piled into the market on China fears pulled out, leaving Molycorp as the main non-Chinese miner.”
The rare-earths rollercoaster of recent years has again shown the ability of markets and human ingenuity to adapt to ill-advised attempts to hold natural resources hostage. When they’re allowed to work, markets always defeat mercantilism—a useful lesson for Beijing’s economic reformers.
[SEPP Comment: When the pope criticized capitalism, what he described is better termed as mercantilism, not capitalism, or a market-based economy.]
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
Delphine Ernotte, président de France Télévisions
On behalf of Phillippe Verdier, Oct 17, 2015 [H/t Anne Debeil]
Senator Whitehouse Whitewashes Climate Change Reality
By William O’Keefe, e-21, Manhattan Institute, Oct 11, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
German View On “Shukla’s Gold”…It Shows There’s “Lots Of Money To Be Made With Climate Alarmism”
Generous climate alarmism: Former IPCC lead author took in $750,000 a year promoting climate catastrophe
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, [Translated/edited by P Gosselin], No Tricks Zone, Oct 21, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The Only Global Warming Chart You Need from Now On
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Oct 21, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Explaining the fine points of chartmanship. Link to John Brignell’s 2001 explanation of the art of using graphs to mislead without actually cheating.] http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/chartmanship.htm]
Blowing It On the Wind
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Oct 21, 2015
New Science 13: The Start of a New Architecture for Climate Models
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Oct 18, 2015
New Science 14: Greenhouse Emission Layers — which pipe is the biggest?
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Oct 21, 2015
Lucia has a bad week on partial derivatives
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Oct 20, 2015
Defending the Orthodoxy
Big Polluters, Pay Up
By Stephen Leonard, President of the Australia-based Climate Justice Program, Project Syndicate, Oct 21, 2015
“As the climate scientist Kevin Trenberth of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research points out, nowadays, ‘[a]ll weather events are affected by climate change, because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be.’”
EPA: Climate rule on ‘sound legal and technical foundation’
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 22, 2015
[SEPP Comment: To SEPP the entire issue is the “soundness” of the technological foundation – the science behind EPA’s endangerment finding.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
1350+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarmism
By Staff Writers, Popular Technology.net, Feb 12, 2014
Pink flamingos versus black swans
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 19, 2015
“Thanks to Hubert Lamb and others, an evolving understanding of climate variability over the past millennia had evolved. Michael Mann arguably killed the climate pink flamingo with his hockey stick — arguing for trivial natural variability over the past millennia.
This understanding of natural variability was ignored, particularly in the TAR and AR4, “due to cognitive biases of a senior leader or a group of leaders trapped by powerful institutional forces.” — “known knowns,” often brightly lit, but remaining studiously ignored by policymakers.”
Back to School: Unlearning Nine Environmental Myths
By Peter Kareiva, Director, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA, Oct 9, 2015 [H/t Power Line]
Deconstruction Of The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Hypothesis
Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Oct 17, 2015
Five questions to the new Chairman of the IPCC
By Drieu Godefridi, WUWT, Oct 21, 2015
The Preposterous Green Institute and the IPCC
The man now in charge at the IPCC belongs to a privileged, protected, secretive entity headed by the UN’s former top climate official.
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Oct 18, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Exploring the Seoul-based Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)]
On to Paris!
EU wants deal ‘valid for century’ at Paris climate talks
By Benet Koleka, Reuters, Oct 16, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
[SEPP Comment: Will global warming “science” be valid for a century – the models used are not valid after a few years!]
Surprise, Surprise: UN Climate Talks Fail To Break Deadlock
By Pilita Clark, Financial Times, Oct 23, 2015
A more balanced draft for Paris agreement emerges from Bonn
As developed countries stall progress distrust grows; developing countries warn of collapse in Paris
By Nitin Sethi, Business Standard, India, Oct 24, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
The ‘Climate Justice’ Fantasy
The rough road to adopting a universal climate treaty at Paris in December
By Ronald Bailey, Reason.com, Oct 23, 2015 [H/t
Africa cries foul over UN climate change draft agreement
By Staff Writers, New Era, Oct 22, 2015
Climate talks stumble as Paris summit looms
By Marlowe Hood, Physics.org, Oct 23, 2015
It’s Pay Up or Shut Up for the Climate Deal
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, Oct 22, 2015
Fanatics Want To Draft Americans To Fight This Dumb War
Editorial, IBD, Oct 19, 2015
No One’s Happy with the State of Climate Talks
By Staff Writers, American Interest, Oct 19, 2015
“Or, at least, so says a new report co-authored by 18 groups, including the World Wildlife Foundation and Oxfam, which announced that ‘[t]he ambition of all major developed countries falls well short of their fair shares.’”
Oil giants back Paris climate pact
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 16, 2015
Link to: Join Collaborative Declaration,
By Staff Writers, Oil and Gas Initiative, Oct 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Typical “big corporation” strategy in which European other state-owned oil companies excel: support expansion of government power to suppress lower-cost competition.]
The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back
Lawmakers mobilize quickly against Obama climate change rule
By Devin Henry, The Hill, Oct 23, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolutions will be introduced to block the Obama Power Plan both for new power plants and for existing power plants.]
Lawsuits pile up against Obama’s climate rule
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 23, 2015
Social Benefits of Carbon
The benefits of carbon dioxide
Global greening may save more lives and forests than warming costs
By Matt Ridley, His Blog, The Times, Oct 20, 2015
Hawkesbury River Study: CO2 improves tree growth, drought tolerance
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 16, 2015
Problems in the Orthodoxy
South Korea’s Climate Plan A Joke
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 21, 2015
Brazil’s Climate Plan – “We Won’t Chop Down As Many Trees”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 23, 2015
Paris climate summit will hinge on climate aid – poor nations
By Alister Doyle and Megan Rowling, Reuters, Oct 22, 2015
Rich nations stalling on climate finance: developing bloc
By Staff Writers, New Vision, Oct 22, 2015
Seeking a Common Ground
A peculiar kind of science
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 20, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The emergence of science by committee?]
On Trial: Social Cost of Carbon
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 5, 2015
Richard Lindzen’s Testimony, June 1, 2015
Missing component found in the evaporation process, making water vapor’s role even more uncertain in climate models
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 22, 2015
“The hitherto evaluation of the rate of evaporation of the oceans must therefore be subject to error, which will certainly affect the accuracy of the predictions of contemporary models of the Earth’s climate.”
[SEPP Comment: As the paper notes: “The researchers from the IPC PAS are investigating evaporation in collaboration with the Institute of Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Warsaw, where experiments are being carried out to verify the correctness of the simulations.”]
Sceptics and Alarmists, Together, Present to Coalition Environment Committee
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her blog, Oct 23, 2015 [H/t Bishop Hill]
Jennifer Marohasy tells it like it is
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 23, 2015
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Alan Jones talks climate, Paris. Mainstream scientists caught out by Marohasy in Parliament.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 21, 2015
All the RSS Temperature Trends that are Fit to Plot
Guest essay by Barry Wise, WUWT, Oct 20, 2015
Global Temp Records Run Hot and Cold
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Oct 19, 2015
2015: A Very Good Year For…Warm Weather
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Oct 22, 2015
ENSO Analysis: 2015/16 Europe Winter Has 78% Chance Of Being Normal Or Colder Than Normal!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 233, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Is it a Central-Pacific El Nino or an Eastern-Pacific El Nino?]
NASA: current El Niño ‘appears likely to equal the event of 1997-98’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 19, 2015
Study explains near-annual Monsoon oscillations generated by El Nino
By Staff Writers, Honolulu HI (SPX), Oct 20, 2015
[Hurricane] Patricia’s Tight Blue Eye
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 23, 2015
“This one is the strongest ‘hurricane’ (Atlantic or East Pacific nomenclature) they have happened to fly into. It’s doubtful that a stronger one hasn’t occurred in, say, the last 50 years which wasn’t flown into with aircraft.”
Hurricane Patricia: Extreme, Poorly Predicted, and Soon to Flood Texas
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 24, 2015
Evidence Of Water On Mars Supports Svensmark’s Theory Of Cosmic Radiation As A Major Climate Factor
Climate change on Mars – is it analogous to that on Earth?
By Dr. Dietrich E. Koelle, [Translated/edited by P Gosselin], No Tricks Zone, Oct 17, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The article does not support the headline.]
Tide Gauge Locations And Sea Level Rise, Some Statistical Concerns
By William Briggs, His Blog, Oct 21, 2015
Link to paper: Tide gauge location and the measurement of global sea level rise
By Beenstock, Felsenstein, Frank and Reingwertz, environmental and Ecological Statistics, May 23, 2014
Formation of coastal sea ice in North Pacific drives ocean circulation
By Staff Writers, Santa Cruz CA (SPX) Oct 21, 2015
“…not captured well in global climate models.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
German Climate Experts Conference: Antarctica Temperatures Show No Warming Trend In 20th Century!
Helmholtz Center in Germany: Antarctic temperatures show no warming trend in 20th century. Climate models unable to reproduce real temperature development
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, [Translated/edited by P Gosselin], No Tricks Zone, Oct 22, 2015
2015 Antarctic Maximum Sea Ice Extent Breaks Streak of Record Highs
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 16, 2015
Polar Puzzle (Now Includes August Data)
Guest Post by Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts, WUWT, Oct 23, 2015
Different regions of the Earth are either warming at different rates or even cooling. Then the various regions contradict each other as to what is really occurring. With so much uncertainty, perhaps we should wait to really see what is really occurring before spending trillions on a problem that may not even exist?
[SEPP Comment: Includes the entire satellite record.]
Winter returns to the Arctic – freeze-up 2015 at October 20 expands polar bear habitat
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 21, 2015
A major scientific organization just refuted NASA’s 99.9% prediction that an earthquake will hit LA before 2018
By Jessica Orwig, Business Insider, Oct 22, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Response of Corals to Acidification: What Can Be Learned From Field Studies?
By Staff Writers, CO2 Science and SPPI, Oct 23, 2015
Some plants do just fine in acidic oceans
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 20, 2015
Oops! It may not be ‘ocean acidification’ killing coral after all – common chemical found in sunscreen is poisonous to coral reefs
By Anthony Watts. WUWT, Oct 20, 2015
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Alaskan boreal forest fires release more carbon than the trees can absorb
By Staff Writers, Champaign IL (SPX), Oct 20, 2015
Link to paper: Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years
By Kelly, et al, PNAS, Jul 2013
“In that study, they found that fire frequency in a 2,000-kilometer swath of the Yukon Flats is higher today than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
“For the new analysis, the team plugged its fire data into a computer model of carbon cycling in the study area.”
[SEPP Comment: Unsubstantiated generalization from a small area. The major burning with the boreal forest retreat with the cooling of about 8000 years ago was probably far more significant.]
Claim: California in the year 2100 will have more frequent and more severe droughts and floods
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 21, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Al Gore and the media were wrong: U.S. Major Hurricane Drought Now One Decade and Counting
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 24, 2015
A Lesson In Solar From A Northern Neighbor
By John Farrell, Clean Technica, Oct 21, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The author ignores important characteristic of Ontario electrical power – cheap hydro-electric.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Study: Climate Change Could Shrink Global Economy 23 Percent
The economic damage could be especially severe for poor countries.
By Jason Plautz, National Journal, Oct 21, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to paper: Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
By Burke, Hsiang & Miguel, Nature, Oct 21, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Amazing humanity survives, much less than prospered over the past two centuries, given that climate change has been ongoing for hundreds of millions of years.]
Climate closure (?)
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 23, 2015
“Lovejoy’s agenda is clear, and it isn’t a scientific one: our species must tackle the urgent issue of reducing emissions and mitigating the consequences of the warming.
“Fuzzy reasoning by the proponents of human caused warming and urgent emissions reductions do not help their ’cause’….I can only wonder what the EOS editors were thinking when they published this.”
Exxon hits back on ridiculous RICO allegations: ‘When it comes to climate change, read the documents’
Guest essay by Ken Cohen, WUWT, Oct 22, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Dem compares climate deniers to tobacco execs
By Tim Devaney, The Hill, Oct 22, 2015
Expanding the Orthodoxy
81 companies give “me too” cheer on climate. Absolutely not thinking of profits, investments, trades or subsidy gravy, right?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 21, 2015
A load of gobbledegook?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 23, 2015
Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope – Loyal Opposition
Good Climate Change Policy Helps the Poor
By the Cornwall Alliance for The Stewardship of Creation, No Date
Heaven and Hell, the Pope condemns the poor to eternal poverty
Post of Press Release of Book by Ian Plimer
Jo Nova’s Blog, Oct 23, 2015
“Only when Third World children can do homework at night using cheap coal-fired electricity can they escape from poverty.”
Questioning European Green
Britain’s Insanely Expensive & Utterly Pointless Wind Power Fiasco Exposed
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2015
Link to report: Intermittency of UK Wind Power Generation 2013 and 2014
By Derek Partington, former Chartered Engineer, April, 2015
“The time during which the wind turbines produced than less than 5% of their rated capacity totaled 1,172 hours or 48.8 days over the same period [two years]…An increase in the operational capacity does not reduce intermittency.”
Madness: Households’ Green Energy Bills To Double By 2020
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Oct 22, 2015
What Green Future? Spain adds solar tax, punishes the wind industry, loses “65,000 renewable jobs”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 19, 2015
BIll Carmichael: Government policy killed British steel
By Bill Carmichael, Yorkshire Post, Oct 23, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
“The only surprising thing about the collapse of the UK steel industry is that anyone is the least bit surprised.”
Green Madness: Steel Collapse Could Cost UK Taxpayer Billions In Energy Subsidies
By Francis Elliott and Robert Lea, The Times, Via GWPF, Oct 21, 2015
Energy policy is putting the British steel industry at risk
British steelmakers pay nearly twice as much for their electricity as their German and French rivals
By Ben Wright, Telegraph, UK, Oct 20, 2015
Climate Pledges Need $13.5 Trillion Investment by 2030, IEA Says
By Alex Morales, Bloomberg, Oct 21, 2015
The Political Games Continue
Dem mega-donor all in for 2016
By Jonathan Swan, The Hill, Oct 22, 2015
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The Path to Carbon Pricing
By Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, and Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group, Project Syndicate, Oct 19, 2015
[SEPP Comment; No wonder a number of writers are discussing the “existential crisis” Europe faces – questioning the reason for its existence, a crisis of its own myth making.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Wishful Thinking Meets Hard Realities in Energy Production
By Joseph Verruni and Patrick J. Michaels, Newsweek, Via Cato, Oct 22, 2015
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Federal probe: EPA mine spill was preventable
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 22, 2015
“The Thursday report contrasts with one completed in August by the EPA, finding that the blowout of 3 million gallons of dangerous sludge was ‘likely inevitable.’”
Governments are more likely than businesses to break pollution regulations
By Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution, Oct 17, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to press release: Government agencies less likely than private to comply with environmental regulations, study finds
By Staff Writers, Indiana University, Bloomington, Oct 13, 2015
The EPA’s ‘Climate Change Liberation Army’
By Adam Andrezejewski, Forbes, Oct 21, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise}
Link to report: OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
By Adam Andrezejewski, American Transparency, Sep 2015
[SEPP Comment to the author: The report needs careful proofreading. For example: “$2.1 million purchased guns and ammo up to 300MM – the majority of these expenditures were on weapons “up to 30MM” ($1.73 million).” 30 mm ammunition is typically used against material, not people. Examples include the A-10 Thunderbolt jet aircraft with a 30 mm rotary cannon (anti-tank) and the AH-64 Apache helicopter with a 30mm chain gun. Generally, 300 mm weapons or ammunition date to WWII or before. Such weapons would be classified as heavy artillery or mortar, or naval guns such as the 12 inch (308 mm) naval gun firing an 850 pound projectile.
The 300 mm in the report may have been confused with common terminology such as a 300 Winchester, which fires a bullet equal of 0.308 inches in diameter (7.82 mm) also called 30 caliber. Exact measurements vary slightly by manufacturer, depending on bore diameter or (the slightly larger) groove diameter.]
Energy Issues — US
OPEC Is Having an Impact on U.S. Oil Output
By Staff Writers, Real Clear Energy, Oct 21, 2015
Analysis shows greenhouse gas emissions similar for shale, [conventional] crude oil
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Oct 15, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Washington’s Control of Energy
ConocoPhillips wins drilling permit for project in Alaska’s petroleum reserve
By Jennifer Dlouhy, Fuel Fix, Oct 22, 2015
Obama cancels Arctic drilling lease sales
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Oct 16, 2015
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
The Copernican Shale Revolution
By Martin Sanbu, Financial Times, UK, Oct 16, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Link to speech: New Economics of Oil
By Spencer Dale, Group chief economist, BP, Society of Business Economists Annual Conference, Oct 13, 2015
Are Shale Producers Out of Tricks?
By Staff Writers, American Interest, Oct 21, 2015
Day Of Reckoning For U.S. Shale Will Have To Wait
By Nick Cunningham, Oil Price.com, Oct 20, 2015
Pa. regulators caught unprepared for natural gas ‘mother lode’
By Wallace McKelvey, Penn Live, Oct 21, 2015
[SEPP According to the article in 2005 Pennsylvania issued 19 permits for shale drilling; in 2010 it issued 3,400. No evidence of significant environmental damage is presented.]
Return of King Coal?
Coal Trumps Solar in India
By Gayathri Vaidyanathan and ClimateWire, Scientific American, Oct 19, 2015
“We want real electricity, not fake electricity! …By ‘real, they meant power from the central grid, generated mostly using coal. By ‘fake,’ they meant solar.”
As appetite for electricity soars, the world keeps turning to coal
By Todd Lindeman, Ted Mellnik and Will Englund, Washington Post, Oct 12, 2015
Giving Up on Coal: Why and How?
By Pierre-Rene Bauquis, Energy Intelligence, Oct, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Petitio Principii: assuming the proof of what needs to be established.]
There Are Gigawatts of Good Reasons to Still Mine Coal
By Sean Hackbarth, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Oct 16, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Prolonged low-level radiation exposure increases risk of cancer death
By Staff Writers, Cancer Research, UK, Oct 22, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Risk of cancer from occupational exposure to ionising radiation: retrospective cohort study of workers in France, the United Kingdom, and the United States (INWORKS)
By Richardson, et al. BMJ, Oct 20, 2015
“But Cancer Research UK’s Dr Witt cautioned that the study is not without its flaws. ‘The researchers didn’t have any information on whether workers were smokers, which is a major cause of cancer death. They also didn’t have information on how many workers developed cancer overall, or what types of treatment they had,’ she said….’More studies like this are needed to confirm how low levels of ionising radiation affect the risk of cancer, including how they affect risks of different types of cancer,’ she added.”
China Shows How to Build Nuclear Reactors Fast and Cheap
By James Conca, Forbes, Oct 22, 2015
New nuclear: Finland’s cautionary tale for the UK
By Sophie Yeo, Carbon Brief, Oct 20, 2015
IAEA Report Highlights Nuclear Power’s Role in Combating Climate Change
By Jeffrey Donovan, IAEA Office of Public information and Communication, Oct 20, 2015
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
A Tower of Molten Salt Will Deliver Solar Power After Sunset
For the first time, solar thermal can compete with natural gas during nighttime peak demand
By Peter Fairley, IEEE Spectrum, Oct 21, 2015
“Crescent Dunes’ generation earns about $190 per megawatt-hour, including the value of federal subsidies, whereas Smith says the company’s South Africa plant will get $125/MWh with no subsidies.”
[SEPP Comment: Still far more expensive than the market! EIA estimates the wholesale price of electricity: “Northern CA (CAISO) set an annual high of $75/MWh, and Southwest (Palo Verde) set an annual high of $65/MWh. These high prices were set on July 1 when electricity demand throughout the Northwest and California was high, wind generation was low (particularly in the Northwest), and hydroelectric generation remained depressed, as it has been all summer.”]
Evaluating Time of Use Pricing
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 23, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Perhaps government entities will adjust their work hours to time of use pricing.]
Solar Power: NOT an Infant Industry (Part II)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Oct 20, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Dashing hopes and promises of solar being competitive with fossil fuel.]
The Real Cost Of Wind Power
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 18, 2015
[SEPP Comment: When capacity factors and subsidies are included, new wind is far more expensive than new combined cycle gas turbines in the UK – even before standby capacity is included.]
Wind: Still Two Or Three Times The Cost Of Conventional Energy, Whatever The Greenies Claim
By James Delingpole, Beitbart, Oct 19, 2015
When Enron, NYT Declared Solar ‘Competitive” with Fossil Fuels (1994)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Oct 21, 2015
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Hot Rocks and Fracking
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 20, 2015
“The Department of Energy has reportedly thrown over $100 million into the development of hot rocks, with every indication that this taxpayer money will have been wasted.”
[SEPP Comment: Would New York Governor Cuomo consider the hydraulic fracturing of rocks deep underground to extract geothermal energy a threat to the state’s water supply? He considers hydraulic fracturing of rock to extract natural gas to by such a threat.]
Study Claims Biofuels’ Emissions Worse That Gasoline
By Editors, Real Clear Energy, Oct 22, 2015
This Might Really Suck the Air Out of the Room
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Oct 19, 2015
Bad Policies Mean High Gas Prices for Californians
By Staff Writers, IER, Oct 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Are the California officials proud of the fruits of their labors?]
Epic Greenfail All Around
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Oct 19, 2015
Gov. Brown’s link between climate change and wildfires is unsupported, fire experts say
By Paige St. John, LA Times, Oct 18, 2015 [H/t WUWT]
Only 15% of California’s Big Solar Projects Are on the Right Kind of Land
By Monica Heger, IEEE Spectrum, Oct 19, 2015
Link to paper: Solar energy development impacts on land cover change and protected areas
By Hernandez, et al. PNAS, Oct 19, 2015
Environmental activists turn up the rhetorical heat
By Joel Kotkin, The Orange County Register, Oct 18, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Other News that May Be of Interest
It’s World Statistics Day! Death To P-Values, Hypothesis Tests, And False Ascriptions Of Cause! #StatsDay15
By William Briggs, His Blog, Oct 20, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The hypothesis testing referenced appears to be that the null, no significance, is accepted or proven, rather than that the affirmative is rejected in favor of the null.]
City busting Earth Grazer Asteroid imminent near miss – just discovered 2 weeks ago
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 23, 2015
Alaska to Resident Hunters: Go Shoot Musk Oxen Before They Drown
By Nicole Mormann, Takepart.com, Oct 18, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
“This occurs every couple of years,” Patrick Jones, an assistant state area biologist, told The Guardian. “It just seems like a waste for them not to harvest these animals.”
Ancient fossils show effect of humans on Caribbean wildlife
Fossils found in flooded cave tell new story about nature-human interactions
By Staff Writers, NSF, Oct 20, 2015
Brazil’s Climate Plan – “We Won’t Chop Down As Many Trees”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 23, 2015
Study: How to Mine Frac Sand Without Damaging Infrastructure
By Isaac Orr and Mark Krumenacher, Heartland, Oct 14, 2015
Link to study: Roadway Impacts of Industrial Silica Sand (Frac Sand) Mining
By Isaac Orr and Mark Krumenacher, Heartland, Sep 18, 2015
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
By John Brignell, Number Watch, Oct 18, 2015
Free Energy! Coming Soon!
Kites: The future of wind energy?
By Anmar Frangoul, Sustainable Energy, CNBC, Oct 15, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The limitation to wind power is height??? – Only 50 eroes per MWH. How is the generator attached? Or does the entire system sail in the wind?]
French president in Iceland to see global warming’s damage
By Staff Writers, AP, Oct 16, 2015
“The French president took a few steps on an Icelandic glacier Friday to experience firsthand the damage caused by global warming, ahead of major U.N. talks on climate change in Paris this year.”
[SEPP Comment: An advancing glacier does not cause damage?]
High-arctic butterflies shrink with rising temperatures
New research shows that butterflies in Greenland have become smaller in response to increasing temperatures due to climate change
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Oct 7, 2015 [H/t Climate Change Predictions]
Link to paper: High-Arctic butterflies become smaller with rising temperatures.
By Bowden, Biology Letters, The Royal Society, Oct 7, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Based on estimates of snow melt and temperatures for 7 years in Northeast Greenland? (Boldface added)]
Where have all the Eagles Gone? Great new song by M4GW
On Jo Nova’s Blog, Oct 23, 2015
[SEPP Comment: More music from Minnesotans for Global Warming (M4GW)]