From the POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH (PIK)
The warmer the higher: Sea-level rise from Filchner-Ronne ice in Antarctica
The more ice is melted of the Antarctic Filchner-Ronne shelf, the more ice flows into the ocean and the more the region contributes to global sea-level rise. While this might seem obvious, it is no matter of course for the huge ice masses of Antarctica: parts of the ice continent are characterized by instabilities that, once triggered, can lead to persistent ice discharge into the ocean even without a further increase of warming – resulting in unstoppable long-term sea-level rise. In the Filchner-Ronne region however, ice-loss will likely not show such behavior, scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research now found. Published in Nature Climate Change, their study shows that in this area the ice flow into the ocean increases just constantly with the heat provided by the ocean over time.
“While for other parts of Antarctica unstoppable long-term ice loss might be provoked by a single warming pulse, caused by nature itself or human action, ice loss in the Filchner-Ronne region increases directly with ocean warming,” lead author Matthias Mengel explains. “This is good news, because it is in our hands to determine how much the region contributes to the global sea-level rise.” Ocean warming results from greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, produced by humankind’s unabated burning of coal, oil and gas. Importantly, however, the oceans might not respond linearly to atmospheric warming, and not in the same way in all parts of the world. This includes the risk that ocean temperatures first lag behind, and then rise rapidly.
“Good news” yet only compared to other parts of the ice continent
The Filchner-Ronne shelf covers an area bigger than Germany; its grounded-ice tributaries store water equivalent to a total of several meters of sea-level rise. “Our calculations show that this relatively small part of the Antarctic ice sheet within just 200 years of unabated climate change could contribute up to 40 centimeters to global sea-level rise,” says Mengel. “This kind of sea-level rise alone could already be enough to bring coastal cities like Hamburg into serious difficulties.”
“At present, most Antarctic ice shelves are surrounded by cold water masses near the freezing point,” co-author Anders Levermann says. “The topography around the ice continent acts as a barrier for heat and salt exchange with the northern warmer and saltier water masses, creating a cold water wall around the continent.” Projections of the breakdown of this front in ocean simulations for the Filchner-Ronne region under atmospheric warming raised concerns that such ocean instability might lead to unstoppable future ice loss also from this part of Antarctica, as is projected to occur in the Wilkes Basin region, for instance. “We found that this is not the case for the Filchner-Ronne shelf – which luckily means that we can still very well limit the ice loss in this area by limiting greenhouse gas emissions.”
Different mechanisms in different regions
Sea-level rise poses a challenge to coastal regions worldwide. While today sea-level rise is mainly caused by thermal expansion of the warming oceans, and by the melting of mountain glaciers, the major contributors to long-term future sea-level rise are expected to be Greenland and Antarctica with their vast ice sheets. The causes of ice loss differ greatly between the two. While on Greenland ice melting at the surface plays a large role, the Antarctic ice sheet loses almost all its ice through ice flow into the ocean. The simulation of the Antarctic ice flow is complex because the flow can become unstable. Ice shelves, the floating extensions of the ice sheet, can act as a break to the ice flow and inhibit instability. Warming oceans around Antarctica that melt the ice shelves therefore increase the risk of high sea-level rise.
The Parallel Ice Sheet Model, as used by the authors, resolves unstable grounding line retreat and simulates the flow of both the ice sheet and the ice shelves. It can therefore help to answer urgent questions as to the extent of Antarctica’s sea-level risks.
“It is more difficult to determine the risk that comes with global warming in parts of Antarctica that are considered unstable, and less difficult for the Filchner-Ronne region that responds linearly to global warming,” concludes Levermann. “One thing is clear: the more warming we cause by burning coal, gas and oil, the more expensive it will be for coastal regions to adapt.”
###
Article: Mengel, M., Feldmann, J., Levermann, A. (2015): Linear sea-level response of Antarctic tributaries to strong projected ocean warming underneath the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf.Nature Climate Change (Advance Online Publication) [DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2808]
Link to the article once it is published: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2808
Link to a previous study on the Wilkes Bassin ice plug: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/archive/2014/uncorking-east-antarctica-yields-unstoppable-sea-level-rise?set_language=en
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http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.5.2015.gif
Data shows the Southern Ocean is colder then normal as well as other data showing Antarctica being colder then normal.
Stop confusing them with facts!
Yeah, like the fact that global sea ice anomaly is approaching a 40-year low! http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
Are you really that thick?
Are you not aware that global sea ice extent was actually above average for most of 2014?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/01/01/global-sea-ice-well-above-average-for-most-of-2014/
In any event, you still have not managed to explain how GHG can make any measurable difference to ocean temperatures.
Still, perhaps you know a new law of physics!
Bill2,
The Antarctic contains about 10X the volume of Arctic ice. Here’s what’s happening in the Antarctic:
As of today, global ice is rising:
The shaded part is ± one standard deviation. Within two SD’s is natural fluctuation.
You are getting all excited over the natural ebb and flow of the global ice cycle. Last year global ice was well above its long term average. Did you comment about that? If not, all you’re doing is parroting the alarmist narrative.
This is a science site; the internet’s “BEST SCIENCE” site. There are plenty of blogs that welcome your kind of alarmism. Go tell them about your ice fears. Because we’re not concerned over minor wiggles like this.
Not only all those observations but this: early springs in Europe were supposed to be upon us. Vegetation did not get the message. – h/t NotricksZone
Regarding PIK, there is a website called http://www.climate-insurance.org/ It “was initiated by Munich Re in April 2005 in response to the growing realization that insurance solutions can play a role in adaptation to climate change” (source). Who was one of the founders of this outfit?
He is still there apparently, and here is what appears to be his newer entry.
http://www.climate-insurance.org/front_content.php?idart=2928
This is not the only reference for Potsdam, there are many more for the site. Potsdam are obsessed with us taking out insurance for floods and the like. I wonder why?
Like the fact that recent Antarctic sea ice levels are the highest ever recorded by humans? Or that the warmists got their research vessel STUCK in the Southern sea ice? Pretty confusing I guess. Good thing taxpayers bailed them out.
Well here is a fact then!
Filchner-Ronne ice shelf is floating ice.
Maybe I’m missing something here but how does floating ice melting contribute to sea level rise?
I know! Archimedes’ principle has been proven wrong and no one told me!
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
I don’t know how are they counting total sea ice area, but simply eyeballing graphs from http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
Looking in the middle of September it is obvious that total sea ice area in Arctic is around 4.5 million km2 and total sea ice area in Antarctica is around 18 million km2
Total Earth sea ice area roughly 22.5 million km2 not around 18 as in the graph…
Not just that Paul. Suppose sea level rose 30 ft in 90 years.
New York City:
We can’t work on the fourth floor or above. Venice proves that water taxis do not work.
We cannot move inland to higher ground. New York City residents’ ancestors lived here 9000 years ago. The city was not just built here over the last 200 years. Anyway, even if it was, architects and builders just aren’t as smart as they used to be. Even Donald Trump has admitted that building a hotel at 4000 ft elevation Las Vegas was nearly impossible, as do other Sunset Strip builders, not to mention 5000 ft elevation builders in Denver. Mexico City, elevation 7300 ft, is a tiny pueblo, because you can’t build that high above sea level. You just can’t create a modern metropolis above 60 ft current sea level.
And really, does anyone believe that New Orleans could be replicated in 70-ft elevation Baton Rouge?
People say that Los Angeles, built mostly above 125 ft, would be fine, but how about Malibu? Most of Malibu would be fine, but Steven Spielberg’s, and all his post-1980 mover-in neighbors’ beachfront houses could be washed away.
San Diego International Airport elevation 17 ft would be drowned. Asking San Diego to relocate airline operations to Miramar (former Top Gun School location on the mesa), elevation 478 ft, would just be impossible.
People just aren’t as smart as they used to be.
Well, anyway, I lived in California in the 70s. Visiting recently, beaches from Marin County to San Diego, have not disappeared, not ocean encroachment/beach diminution. Scripps Institution has a pier, many decades old, but it has no plan to raise it in the near future.
If anybody has info on Wood Hole raising their pier, or making plans to move the Institution inland to to higher ground, please report it. It the world’s top two oceanographic study centers aren’t doing anything to escape “dangerous sea level rise”, what does that tell you?
All the “important people” are going to COP21 on massive-carbon-dioxide-spewing jets. They don’t believe they are contributing to climate catastrophe. They aren’t hypocrites. They’re fraud artists. Excuse me, I mean “artistes”.
Bill 2, it’s called the ‘weather’ and not the climate. Your side tells me it’s TRENDS that matter. Unless it’s it’s a hot month, day or year, or ice dip et al. See my comment post:
According to warmists weather IS and IS NOT the climate
There can’t be a new law of physics because the science is settled – nothing knew to find out.
Not only is the southern ocean colder than normal, it is actually -2.0C which is colder than the freezing point of fresh water glacial ice.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/50km_night/2015/sstnight.10.5.2015.gif
Always an important fact when discussing “melting” with warmists. Generally, I find that most of them don’t know the difference between warming and “less cold”.
“Not only is the southern ocean colder than normal, it is actually -2.0C which is colder than the freezing point of fresh water glacial ice.”
Well spotted Bill.
The excuse for cooler oceans around Antarctica were because of melting ice. The fact it is -2.0 c with no ice shows there is a high salt content, so can’t have anything to do with melting ice.
Another alarmist failure.
One very significant observation in the North Atlantic ocean is a very small patch about 8 c colder than usual. If true this would be concerning to say the least. It is normally around 16 c there, but there is a very small area ~8 c. This doesn’t show up on anomalies because it’s too small, but still in a region much colder than normal.
The global sea ice anomaly is approaching a 40 year low? Really?
How can that be when it’s above 2012 and 2011 levels and climbing?
https://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2015/10/06/sea-ice-extent-day-278/
Check out the Bahamas where Hurricane Joaquin was sitting for a few days. Notice the cooling it produced.
And half of the Atlantic Ocean is also colder than normal!
Pot’s damn! How are they supposed to PIK those sort of factual details out of all that model output? There just isn’t time to do climate science that the MSM want and be thorough, rational and professional about it!
Here is the problem that PIK (their nose?) has with crappy science. It’s really simple as Roger alludes too.
Density of water = 1
Density of Ice = 1
Floating ice is frozen water of the same density. If it melted, absolutely nothing would happen!
Really, it’s just basic science that is being ignored so they maybe can, or possibly should or might, get more funding.
This is nothing but HORSE PUCKY!
.
It is not a prediction when your servant tells you what they were trained to tell you.
I read that as GIGO.
“GIGO”? No… FIGO! “Funding in, garbage out.”
The average annual surface temperature of Antarctica is -47 C. Wake me up when the ice starts to melt. Thanks.
+1… the power of global warming, it’s so strong it can overcome anything, even rational thinking..
And the melting point of ice.
It’s 9°F McMurdo Station, going down to -8 tonight. 20 degrees of warming would melt no ice.
We need an under-ice volcano alarm clock for you then because that’s the only mechanism for Antarctic ice melting.
The only melting of Antarctic ice cap cannot be caused by the atmosphere neither by the surrounding Ocean, but by telluric and volcanic activities under the ice in some parts of this continent.
And yes, they may make the ice melting and speeding up the glaciers shifting towards the ocean. But it has nothing to do with the AGW.
A similar phenomenon was recently observed on the Arctic Océan’s floor which warms up the water under the ice shelf and makes it melting and thinning. Nothing to do with AGW here too.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/10/19/antarctic-temperature-trends-3/
More data which shows Antarctic Ice as well as Antarctica Sea Ice is not going to be decreasing any time soon if ever.
The melt season ended in the arctic so quickly that I was not able to carry out my plan to kayak to the North Pole this summer.
But next year, with all of the Arctic ice certainly gone, I will have a much more open schedule for planning.
Now, I am adding another adventure to highlight the problem of disappearing ice: I will mountain bike to the South Pole in the same year.
Warmists are certainly trying to get the alarm out. Recently the Toronto Star published a piece on “we’ll soon be sailing in the ice-free Northwest Passage”. Er. Sometime. Not this year, maybe next.
Basically, they change the date of the article, re-arrange a few words here and there and re-print, hoping nobody catches them.
“we’ll soon be sailing in the ice-free Northwest Passage” … in an iceboat.
TheLastDemocrat — cute — Eugene WR Gallun
“This kind of sea-level rise alone could …” [insert here]
“already”
What does this mean?
Are they implying that it already happened, we just have not noticed yet?
Or is it like a signed death warrant, where the convict is “already” dead?
I’m conflicted – don’t know if I should just end it all now or smoke some baby back ribs. It would help of editors would ban articles that use “could, may, is possible, models indicate…”. It is safe to say the world could be hit by a large asteroid before the day is over in which case I will definitely go with the ribs today and tomorrow.
Not baby backs, puleeze! (There’s a reason so many restaurants “feature” baby backs these days.) Use some good ribs. And will you be criminally splashing any of that charcoal starter fluid about? 😉
“‘This kind of sea-level rise alone could …’ [insert JACKASSERY here]”
FTFY. No charge.
““Our calculations show that this relatively small part of the Antarctic ice sheet within just 200 years of unabated climate change could contribute up to 40 centimeters to global sea-level rise,” says Mengel. “This kind of sea-level rise alone could already be enough to bring coastal cities like Hamburg into serious difficulties.””
Could have. Would have. Should have. I have to throw BS on this paper. In view of the fact that most of Antarctica has not gotten warmer during the past two decades, the paper represents just speculation for a fee, a government fee.
And even if we accept the warmista numbers on ocean warming, was it not about 0.02 C?
Last time my freezer warmed up by two one hundreths if a degree, I did not notice any of the ice cubes melting.
And what the heck is ” unabated climate change”?
If they are talking about warming…then say warming! But there has been no warming, bated or otherwise, for nearly 19 years. So what are they even talking about?
And how can they conclude that any warming pulse will cause unstoppable ice loss, when the Earth has seen a long series of such pulses over time…and yet the ice sheet remains.
Have these people no scruples or shame?
How can people publish something that amounts to shear speculation based on a one sided view which is not even borne out by any facts?
The only thing that seems unstoppable to me is the stream of alarmist BS, and the damage to the reputation of science in general.
“Have these people no scruples or shame?”
No.
Silly menicholas.
But the heat is hiding somewhere, it’ll come back with a vengence, we just cannot find it, but we know it’s there, . There now, do I qualify for a grant. We have to find it before it’s too late! I’ll start my research in Hawaii, see, it’s counterintuitive. It WILL take a while… (I have no such thoughts of passing the days swimming or dining out every night. Oh no, I’ll be busy making a new case for another grant).
“Speculation for a fee” This is what taxpayers get for the billions that is taken from them.
The Education Bubble can’t burst fast enough for me.
Climate Science – where else can one get such a large return in speculation for a such a small investment in fact?
Ferd Berple said, “Climate Science – where else can one get such a large return in speculation for a such a small investment in fact?”
I think this exhibits an economic problem that few have considered. For every inefficient job created in our economy, either part of a real job, or an entire real job disappears. For example, with the misapplication of science and scientific tools, we spend money inefficiently on things like climate scientists, whereas, we need more genetic scientists, more medical doctors, and any number of other disciplines including engineers. Misapplied research dollars have an opportunity cost by denying resources for serious research in medicine and food production.
The federal government winds up paying for climate scientists to get their Phd’s, but what about medical doctors or real scientists like physicists and engineers? Instead of paying for tons of useless climate studies, how about repaving some roads or rebuilding some bridges.
Nobody’s day-to-day life will change on the results of speculative climate change studies. The people in Bangladesh will not get wet feet because of increasing CO2. They might get wet because of subsiding land, but the Ganges delta is in no danger of disappearing underwater. Even with sea levels rise over time, the people in Bangladesh, Miami, or New York City are not stupid. They will find ways of staying dry, obtaining food, and mitigating any climate dangers that come up over the next thousand years.
Except, maybe another ice age.
Everyone knows what fiat currency is. Is there such a thing as fiat research?
Only 200 years of unabated climate change will do it.
Now I tend to agree with those worry warts that we are in for at least 200 years of unabated climate change. Lordy ! we’ve had about 4.5 billions (with a B) of unabated climate change, so why would it stop now.
Biggest question to resolve is it going up or down ?? What means climate going up or down ?? What is climate for that matter ??
When you use imprecise terms in scientific discussions, you tend to get a failure to communicate.
That’s why I tend to get a bit pedantic, when discussing science.
That means roughly the same thing as ” nit picky “.
G
It’s worse than we thought.
As Canadian singer Bruce Cockburn sings, “the trouble with normal is it always gets worse”.
Thanks for introducing me to Bruce Cockburn. Beautiful guitar style in some of his other tracks.
…and probably unprecedented
…or, more accurately, measurably unprecedented.
…and probably unprecedented since….
if you want the oft quoted oxymoron..
Its worser than the worsest thing there ever was.
http://www.clarewind.org.uk/events-1.php?event=35
I think the proper form in newspeak is “bad — badder — best”.
Whenever a common misperception is induced on the market, it is damaging for the vast majority, but extremely rewarding for a few, who happen to fail to get misled.
That’s an understatement. It’s even worserer than that…
Triggers and Forcing, the hallmarks of Global Warming Alarmism.
I don’t know what a forcing is. Nobody has been abole to describe, in a unit-based scientific way, what a forcing is. Similarly, the CAGW chicken littles like to use the word “Trigger”.
Doom is upon us but apparently is being held back by a simple quintessential stick and string under the immense boulder of unstoppable destruction.
1) Please give me a testable, and provable example of a ‘climate trigger’. No Butterfly effect BS.
2) Show me that the trigger will, without a doubt, result in cataclysm.
3) Show me that there are no other triggers.
4) Prove to me that there isn’t a giant wall in front of either the trigger of the cataclysm. (The earth is a big system, a lot of mass to influence, so that is the wall that I am thinking about)
5) Show me that your funding isn’t tied to preaching doom and gloom.
Trigger and Forcing are Bullsh1t words that really mean nothing and everything.
Paul
This trigger used to provide the horse s**t.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/life/television/news/2010-07-14-roy-rogers-horse_N.htm
Very amusing! Lotta horses up there in Edmonton, so that make you an expert… on..Trigger droppings.
What is more, Paul…. if the climate had significant positive feedbacks on any of these perturbations, or if it were critically unstable with sensitive “triggers”….. and given the huge expanse of parameter space which the earth has been in past millenia (hot, cold, hi CO2, low CO2, different ocean configurations, different polar-continent arrangements), wouldn’t we have locked up into either a frozen hell or a boiling hell a long time ago? I agree with you that this talk of triggers is speculative uninformed BS.
6) show me why if there is a trigger it hasn’t been pulled already a million times.
You forgot “tipping point”. Back to Rent Seeking 101!
“Forcing” – I work across disciplines, and so I recognize that different disciplines have different terms for different things.
I thought “forcings” was just an independent variable suspected of causally leading to planetary temp.
To Jeff Bob and Brian,
I had to study control systems in my undergrad and my graduate work. I recognize hype wrt transfer functions when I hear it.
Consider the stability of the earth, and I give you 3 notions of stability represented by a solid cone resting on a plane.
1) the cone is pointing up resting on its circular base. -Stable.
2)The cone is resting on its curved side, and can ve rolled if touched. -Neutrally stable.
3) The cone is resting on its point, pointing down and can tip over with any disturbance. Unstable
http://images.tutorvista.com/content/forces/equilibrium-three-states.jpeg
I do not think a convincing case has been made by Mengel et al that there is such an instability in reserve that the earth will radically change if a piece of ice melts.
I would like to the transfer function Mengel et al proposes.
I will be waiting…forever.
Triggers and forcing are the result of false analogies.
Unfortunately false analogies can create a popular belief that the earth will automatically lurch uncontrollably towards some extreme and nightmarish condition.
Luckily for us, they are unlikely to ever get the concept of glacial “uncorking” into the public consciousness.
Even public discussion of renewables is beset by the circulation of inappropriate analogies.
When the government launched their unsustainable solar cash give-away, they described their policy as one of “priming the pump” of the solar market.
But, actually when they cut the subsidy the bubble that they had created almost completely collapsed.
So, no pump was primed. It was a dumb analogy that aided the creation of a catastrophically dumb and expensive scheme.
False analogies, dangerous things in the hands of useful idiots!!!
Oh I agree. It seems that rather than pursue science, the investigators have assumed a metaphor as a fact and endeavored to seek evidence of the metaphor’s existence in reality. How weird is that? Someone must see real value in the popular appeal and acceptance of “triggers” and “tipping points”.
I’d love to know the physics of how “Ocean warming results from greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, produced by humankind’s unabated burning of coal, oil and gas”. Just that one sentence tells you all you need to know about the ignorance of the authors.
“Ocean warming results from greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”
Interesting. I thought it was from sunshine.
I am still awaiting an explanation of how GHG can make any measurable difference to ocean temperatures, particularly below the top few mm, where it conceivably might.
Yet the oceans have theoretically warmed without GHG warming the atmosphere. I am with you Paul I can’t see how GHG can cause the oceans to warm without also showing significant and dramatic warming in the atmosphere, but I can sure think of a million reasons why a cyclical warming ocean could warm the atmosphere.
It is not a difficult concept to understand that in the vacuum of space the only heat transfer possible is by radiation, in fluids it is by convection and in solids by conduction. ” The lost heat of AGW has disappeared into the ocean depths” demonstrates a total lack of understanding about simple physics as well as contradicting at least one of the Laws of Thermodynamics. The fact is that still water and still air are very good insulators (wet suit, dry suit, loft insulation and many others all rely on this simple fact).
Why should we impoverish billions of people and destroy the World Economy, based on “science” that is not only incorrect, but grossly wrong?
The observational facts about this ice shelf are coverd in essay Tipping Points. It is stable based on actual drill cores. The big concern was the Ross, until the ANDRIL program showed itbis stable also. That is why NASA JPL’s Rignot refocused the alarm to PIG in the Amundsen Embayment. Except his estimate is almost 4x NASA’s previous ones in 2011 and 2012. And, PIG is so small that to get a scary 1.2 meters, the PR assumed all the ice in the Embayment basin woild disappear. Rignots owm research in the same paper showed that was impossible.
The Potsdam model cannot be very good. No different than the rest of Schellnhuber, Rahmsdorf, and crew work product to date. Pure fantasized warmunism.
I am curious about the actual temperature of the ice itself, at the surface and at various levels.
In most places, groundwater is about equal to the average annual air temperature in that location. Is the same true of Antarctic ice? Is it colder way down deep, representing the temp long ago during glacial epochs?
Is there a place to look this up?
Did they take temp readings in the boreholes?
I am bringing this up because of a simple fact which may have eluded the people worried about these ice sheets melting: Ice melts when the temp of the ice gets above 32, not necessarily the air.
My freezer is at -2 F, and therefore so is the ice in it. If I take some out, and place it on the counter, it does not start melting right away…because the cubes themselves have to first warm up to the melting point. Same with Antarctic ice. My guess is that ice is far below zero F, and will take a very long time to even begin to melt, if the temp ever got up to even 32F.
Not to mention the latent energy required just to change it from a solid to a liquid.
Take a look for yourself.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=7.98,-86.08,329
The Potsdam Institute can be counted on to release a new study showing catastrophic impacts on the world due to manmade global warming/climate change based on computer models, about every two or three weeks. They and NASA are the standard-bearers of climate alarmism
Finally, I see a climate paper which is absolutely correct. And from the notorious PIK, no less.
Historic sea level rise for the last 4 thousand to 6 thousand years is typically given as 8 inches/century or 20 cm/century. So two centuries rise gives 40 cm. Very good.
This is proof that the PIC researchers were able to successfully calculate:
20 * 2 = 40.
News Flash Scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have demonstrated an ability to do simple multiplication. This is a characteristic which has previously been absent in the Climate Alarmist community. Future Directions Can partial differential calculus be far behind?
+1
Seems to be the Marine Corps style of “tell ’em what you’re gonna tell ’em, tell ’em, tell ’em what you told ’em”.
Repeat as needed until every last warmist fantasy of all of us getting together and saving the planet comes true.
“Can partial differential calculus be far behind?”
Love it!
I think what they are saying is that this ice shelf, when melted in 200 years, will,of itself, contribute 40 cm sea level rise in addition to that already happening in 200 years.
D’oh! That’s gonna leave a mark.
Meanwhile in the real world mother nature clearly isn’t reading the press releases as Antarctic ice extent continues to be above the norm.
What norm?
Maybe not above “norm” because there is no such thing. But certainly well above the 1979 to 2000 mean and about to break above 1 standard deviation of that mean. It sure looks like there is a strong possibility that Antarctic sea ice to once again break the record for the period mentioned.
40 cm / 2.5 cm/in =16 in. /39 in/meter=0.4 meter. Paint me unconcerned.
JimB,
That was the most involved conversion of centimeters to meters I have ever seen…just move the decimal place three places left.:-) (I know you were trying to show the inches in the middle for all us Americans, but the order of it tickled me.)
Can we convert that to a decimal fraction of the average daily tidal range of our coastlines?
Three places left? Is that some metric ‘new math’ thing?
Well that sort of bush calculation won’t show anything significant, as we are only thinking about 1.0 deg. C rise in the last 150 years; more or less.
So 1 inch is actually 2.54 cm; not 2.5 that’s a bigger error than what that possible 1 deg. C in 150 years represents as an uncertainty.
And it is 39.37 cm per inch; not 39, which makes a foot 30.48 cm.
But what we do know is that the earth’s equatorial circumference is exactly 21,600 nautical miles. Well it used to be exactly that; one minute of arc longitude per nm.
But then they went and metricated the nautical mile, and now it is exactly 1852 metres; by definition.
Why would you metricate a nautical mile; reserve your metrication for kilometering.
Also a nautical mile is supposed to be 1,000 fathoms, which means a fathom is really about 6.076 feet; so even that get wronged in the MSM.
If you like being sloppy; try to not do science; take up knitting instead; like knit one, purl 2, and so on.
g
I think this place is cursed 🙂
George:
It really isn’t “39.37 cm per inch” but maybe 39.37 cm per meter?
Also nautical mile is one arc minute of latitude not longitude…
There are exactly 100 CM in one meter. This is the definition of a centimeter, after all.
There are 39 plus inches in a meter.
Yes, lines of latitude are parallel.
Lines of longitude are not…they converge at the poles, so you would have to specify a latitude in order to give a degree of longitude a distance.
When the metric system was devised, the meter was define as one ten millionth of the distance from the Equator to the North pole.
And a gram was defined as a cubic centimeter of water at the melting point.
This was later changed to be 4.0 C, which is the temp of maximum density of fresh water.
Then the definitions changed to be based on actual physical specimens.
I think the official meter is a platinum rod, and was further defined in terms of the wavelength of some atoms, sort of the way a second is defined.
Later, the meter was defined in terms of the speed of light in a vacuum.
Yeah I mixed my mm and cm. I am used to working in time so that was a stretch for me. Of course I used to work in the non-metric nm in the Air Force. Pulse width was calculated in metric and blanking distance was converted to nautical miles. Max unambiguous range was most easily calculated in metric, but the pilots wanted everything in nautical miles. So convert, convert, and convert. Worse was we usually worked in time in the electronic circuits and had to convert to make it real for everyone else. For some reason pilots just didn’t understand what you mean when you reference distance in milliseconds/microseconds/nanoseconds.
Yeah definitely cursed, of course it should be 39.37 inch per meter not cm….
The Potsdam Institute (PIK) was set up in 1992 and is directed by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. He is a pantheist and senior climate advisor to Pope Francis. Pantheism is defined as “the doctrine that God is the transcendent reality of which the material universe and human beings are only manifestations: it involves a denial of God’s personality and expresses a tendency to identify God and nature.” Schellnhuber believes the world population is ideally fewer than 1 billion people.
1. if we are only manifestations, what’s his problem?
2. how is that immaterial universe burning natural fuels (hydrocarbons)?
somebody is off their meds
Schellnhuber believes the world population is ideally fewer than 1 billion people.
===============
he believes the world would be better off if he had never been born?
“he believes the world would be better off if he had never been born?”
I know I do (along with his fellow-travelers)
“he believes the world would be better off if he had never been born?”
And I agree with him.
Anyone carrying around that much self-loathing is a detriment to us all.
Schellnhuber, you first. If he goes first then the world’s population won’t be a problem.
BTW, I was only kidding. I do not wish anyone dead, even they that want themselves to be dead.
The mentally unbalanced are to be pitied, not scorned, IMO.
( I make exceptions to the first statement above for killers and other such vicious human beings.)
As usual, scratch a warmist and there is a Malthusian eliminationist.
Yes, but curiously even when the ‘eliminationists’ are confronted with their own hypocritical statements (such as “humans are a cancer to Gaia”), they never volunteer to take themselves out of the world’s population count, and always manage to evade answering the question of why they don’t.
great comment.
in my opinion, it will either be an intellectual elitist, as Malthus was and many eugenicists have been, or a Marxist. the hard part is that intellectual elitists and Marxists have converged.
Senior climate advisor to Pope Francis, well that convinces me
Him go first just for demonstration that he is sincere.
g
” Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. He is a pantheist and senior climate advisor to Pope ”
I read the same thing. How in the world can the Vatican enlist a man like Schellnhuber to give advice, any kind of advice? His core beliefs run counter to the the Roman Catholic world that I would think they would be ashamed to admit a connection.
Yes, the Church wants more babies! And at the same time believes we are all doomed to die in a terrible End of Times holocaust.
This kind of alarmism is exactly like auto advertising. How many time have you heard the expression “introducing the all new XXX” where XXX is the brand name of the assembly line jalopy that the manufacturer is pushing your way. How on earth could an assembly line car be “all new” every year? They re-use 90 % of the previous year’s design, or they’d go broke in a hurry. Buyers know this, and they ignore the claim. Likewise “introducing the all new global warming scare XXX” has the same mind-numbing effect that produces a result that is the exact opposite of the one intended.
About as viable as claiming the recent rains in S. Carolina were a “1 in a 1,000 year” event based on 180 years of data.
Recent rains in the Carolinas maxed out at 16 inches. They were not “1,000 year events”:
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ScreenHunter_3404-Oct.-06-12.42.gif
Dave, I don’t think you can compare monthly totals to a single two/three day event.
The total rainfall is meaningless without the duration when it comes to the determination of what sort of rainfall event it was..
Doesn’t matter because the record does not go back far enough to allow any real accuracy in such a claim even as a statistical probability.
If you look at 1,000 communities, at least one of them should have a 1 in 1,000 year rainfall in any year.
It is just odds.
There are actually at least 1,000,000 communities on the planet, so there should be at least 1,000 which have a 1 in 1,000 year rainfall event in any one year.
With statistical modeling, you can take 100 years of data, look at the dispersion, and assume the variability in 100 years of dispersion would be consistent for a thousand years, then set your flood district and begin rate-setting.
Steve Jones is correct, comparing monthly totals to that for 3 days is not valid. Here are the statistics for various time intervals (ie XX rain in YY minutes or days) and the threshold for being considered a 1000 year flood (other values also published, all the way down to 1 year): http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=sc
For example, for SC the threshold for a 1000 year (average reoccurrence) is 15.7 inches over 3 days
What the authors are always ignorant too with these models are the fact it takes a lot more than just summer temperature reaching more than 0 c to melt glacier. Ground temperatures are much colder over land and can remain below zero when temperatures are a few degrees above zero. If you lose a cm ice due to melt over a couple of days during the summer peak, only need more than 2 cm snow fall ice equivalent rest of the year to cause a yearly gain. This behavior if occurred in northern hemisphere, would lead to full blown ice age conditions and yet here temperatures would have to reach many degrees higher to to reach this condition.
The glaciers can only hold so much weight and when it becomes too heavy spreads out further. If increased weight one day leads to parts of the glacier spreading out over unstable areas like the ocean. A collapse could easily occur and result in some of the glacier breaking off. This has nothing to do with temperatures, but natural behavior occurring over Antarctica land mass.
Ocean warming does not result from greenhouse gases. There is no scientific evidence that this has any noticeable affect. If this was true the oceans linking the ACC around Antarctica would have been warming and they haven’t. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is the main reason why warmer oceans away from this have no affect on the continent itself and that is what we have observed until now. There is no evidence this will change in any decade soon and the model just goes against all the scientific evidence there is as usual.
And even IF there was an increase in the water temperature, that would create greater evaporation that would sequester the water as snow in the interior of the Antarctic desert.
Areas close to coasts are also easily cold enough for a rise in water temperatures supporting increased water vapor for greater snowfalls on exterior.
“Our calculations show that this relatively small part of the Antarctic ice sheet within just 200 years of unabated climate change could contribute up to 40 centimeters to global sea-level rise”
A little faux pas? Climate change only equates to warming? Methinks their prejudice is showing juuuuuuust a little bit.
. .Ho Hum, wake me up when the climate STOPS changing , then I’ll start worrying !!!
OK Mr. Van Winkle.
I am setting your alarm clock to 18 years and 8 months ago.
🙂
That’s temperature, not climate !!!! 😉
menicholas
Odd really, in most sci-fi 18-20 years would be a cool time to wake up. But in the “Alarmist” world,,, ah no. What ever happened to to atomic war etc being the great threat to mankind? Oh.. A Volkswagen is going to off you,. forget all the other threats, Mutates, biker MUTATES, FEMALE mutates, and last last BUG EYED bunnies after our women,,, okay time for my meds,,,
michael 😀
Oops mutants I need to have my Wife spell check for me.
Another climate model predicts unstoppable sea-level rise from Antarctica melt
If only it would start melting.
“The more ice is melted of the Antarctic Filchner-Ronne shelf, the more ice flows into the ocean”
Huh?
If I remember correctly, the yearly average temp in the Antarctic is minus 47. How much ice could possibly melt in a year at those temps ???
Marcus – You are doing it wrong. Antarctica is at the bottom of the world, and is therefor upside-down. You have to flip over the thermometer to compensate. Then the temperature becomes 47 deg.
That is a Pro Tip, I hope it helps.
ROTFLMAO
Remind me not to take your tips for Golf.
rah,
What you mean the high score doesn’t win in the southern hemisphere? Well there goes my trip to Australia to play golf!
Many of use the amazing resource called Null School Earth.
I just wish some of these Alarmists would check conditions in Antarctica on a daily basis!
Let them deny the evidence of their own eyes.
Better yet let them go visit it Antarctica and feel it with their skin.
I think some of them tried a few years back. Did not work out so well.
They seem to have amnesia for the event.
They got a lot of that amnesia, that lot.