Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #198

The Week That Was: 2015-09-26 (September 26, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project


THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Changing Science: Several developments related to climate science occurred this week that can have some influence on policy as governments are rushing towards an “agreement” to be reached at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to be held in Paris from November 30 to December 11. No doubt, these developments will be ignored by some governments, the government-supported Climate Establishment, which adheres to the findings of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) while ignoring its deficiencies, and by the well-funded Green lobby, which depends on an image of “saving the world.” One development is a book-length independent review of the IPCC’s work by Alan Longhurst, a biological oceanographer with over 50 years’ experience. The second development is group of essays by mathematician and electrical engineer David Evans posing a serious critique of the models depended upon by the IPCC and the Climate Establishment.


Quote of the Week: “Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen.” Albert Einstein


Number of the Week: 7 Years


Longhurst Review: Encouraged by Judith Curry, Alan Longhurst reviewed the work of the IPCC from 2012 to 2015 and reached the following conclusions.

· Global surface-air temperature records do not provide a reliable estimate of the influence of increased CO2 due to land use change (urbanization, etc.) and effects of industrial particulates.

· Users cannot judge the consequences of adjustments to surface-air data sets.

· Sea surface temperatures are not a substitute for surface-air temperatures over oceans – due to changes attributable to ocean vertical motions, upwelling, etc.

· Description of the global heat budget is inadequate.

· Evidence for an intensification of extreme weather events and, in particular, tropical cyclones is very weak and is largely due increasing reliability and coverage of weather monitoring.

· “Global climate in the present configuration of the continents falls naturally into a limited number of patterns that are forced externally and patterned by internal dynamics” – influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation that describes the strength of trade winds.

· “The recent melting of arctic ice cover over larger areas than 20 years ago in summer is not a unique event, but is a recurrence of past episodes and is the result of cyclically-­‐variable transport of heat in warm North Atlantic water into the Arctic basin through the Norwegian Sea…”

· Sea level is rising, but the causes -­‐ especially at regional scale -­‐ are more complex than suggested by the IPCC and involve many processes other than expansion due to warming.

· “The consequences of acidification of seawater is one of the most enigmatic questions, it seems now that (i) marine organisms are more resilient to changing pH than was originally feared, because of the genetic diversity of their populations and (ii) the history of pH of seawater during geological time suggests that resilience through selection of genomes has emerged when appropriate in the past.”

· “Unfortunately, the essential debate on these issues will not take place, at least not openly and without prejudice, because so many voices are today saying – nay, shouting -­‐ ‘enough, the science is settled, it is time for remediation’. In fact, many have been saying this for almost 20 years, even as fewer voices have been heard in the opposite sense. As discussed in Chapter 1, the science of climate change -­‐ like many other complex fields in the earth sciences -­‐ does not function so that at some point in time one can say ‘now, the science is settled’: there are always uncertainties and alternative explanations for observations.”

Nothing reviewed of Longhurst’s work appears inconsistent with the findings of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC): Climate Change Reconsidered II. The NIPCC reports include extensive reviews of scientific papers citing the benefits of increased atmospheric CO2, including benefits to marine life.

Longhurst does not address atmospheric temperatures measured by satellites, independently supported by weather balloon measurements. These are beyond ordinary human influences that affect surface-air measurements taken a few feet off the ground. SEPP considers atmospheric measurements which engulf virtually the entire globe to be the only ones from which average global temperatures can be calculated.

The recent modifications made by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to the sea surface temperature records intensify the issues, not reduce them. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC and Challenging the Orthodoxy.


David Evans: The analysis of IPCC climate models by model expert David Evans is appearing in a series of posts by Jo Nova, his wife, on her web site. Jo Nova is a very articulate writer on science issues, particularly on climate issues. The posts under the title “New Science” will likely continue for some time. Already, the criticisms are addressing significant flaws in the climate models, which make the models unsuitable for long-term projections and for policy decisions. The second paragraph in the opening is refreshing:

“Government science is stuck in a rut, strangled – trying to capture the creative genius of discovery and force it through a bureaucratic formula, like it can work to a deadline or be judged by the number of papers, or pages, or citations, or by b-grade officials. Blogs are new, but this form of independent scientific research, done for the thrill of discovery, outside institutions and funded by philanthropists, is the way science was mainly done before WWII.”


Evans then discusses the core of the basic physics model that a doubling of CO2 will cause a warming of 1.2 º C, as estimated in the Charney Report of 1979. [The IPCC has amplified the range of the warming proposed in the Charney Report, but has not improved on it.] He will take us on a tour of the feedbacks and the details of the models, asserting that the structure of the model is wrong – it is connected the wrong way.

The journey is beginning, and promises to be interesting. Since some posts are more technical than what customarily appears herein, TWTW will link to the posts, largely without comment. We will enjoy the journey and see if Evans accomplishes what he asserts: “Basically it is going to come down to one connection. The basic physics is correct, but the climate scientists misapplied it. After fixing the plumbing, it all flows beautifully.


“This argument potentially breaks the intellectual logjam. The empirical reality was measured correctly after all.”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and “Climate Fears and Finance” http://www.sepp.org/key_issues/ClimateFearsandFinance6-6.pdf


The Pope’s Visit: The writings of the Pope and his talks reflect antiquated thinking about economic systems more in line with 19th century thinking brought in sharper contrast during the period between WWI and WWII. He criticized what he calls capitalism, a term not commonly used until the mid- to-late 1800s. Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels strongly criticized the “capitalistic system” in Das Kapital (1867). However, western economic systems can be better termed as based on private enterprise, or free market systems. In the latter, the meaning of free is from undue government control. These terms better fit the market economies of the west than capitalism.

The critical economic issue is who controls the means of production and the decisions of what to produce. Is it a central authority or the multitude of decisions by many people? As seen in many countries, such as the Soviet Union and Argentina during the reign of Peron, central decision making, often favoring a few, can be economically repressive to the many. Conversely, in market economies, if private companies make poor decisions on what to produce, they fail leading to bankruptcy or take-over. Unfortunately, in his economic pronouncements, the Pope fails to make such important distinctions.

Western market economies have addressed environmental deterioration and greatly improved environmental conditions without centralized decision-making. The claim that human carbon dioxide emissions will cause unprecedented and dangerous global warming is not supported by atmospheric temperature measurements, which are the finest, only comprehensive measurements of global temperatures existing. Simply, there is no compelling environmental or human reason to institute centralized economic powers, which have repeatedly failed in the past.

Murkiness of thinking was characteristic in his remarks to Congress. He requested Congress not impede immigration from Latin America. He may realize that people are immigrating largely for economic reasons, to find a better life. These antiquated remarks are forgivable for the Pope, but not for his economic advisors.

The Pope insists that governments must interfere with free-market system to address climate change, which, however, is based on inadequate science.

The cost of such interference is enormous. It is the free market system in the US that allowed the expansion of oil production from shale – all occurring on private or state-owned lands, not federally controlled lands and waters. This production is breaking the grip of government-controlled petroleum companies in OPEC. The resulting decline in oil prices is a boon to humans in general. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope, and Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope – Loyal Opposition


A Stern Review: Michael Kelly has a review of the new book by Nicholas Stern: Why Are We Waiting? The Logic, Urgency, and Promise of Tackling Climate Change. Lord Stern is the author of an influential report on the costs of climate change. The report depends on statistical manipulation of estimates of future costs using discount rates that are fitting for economies that are undergoing prolonged economic recession or depression.

Mr. Kelly’s review shows a poetic flair: “Those building the biblical Tower of Babel, intending to reach heaven, did not know where heaven was and hence when the project would be finished, or at what cost. Those setting out to solve the climate change problem now are in the same position. If we were to spend 10 or even 100 trillion dollars mitigating carbon dioxide emissions, what would happen to the climate? If we can’t evaluate whether reversing climate change would be value for money, why should we bother, when we can clearly identify many and better investments for such huge resources? The forthcoming Paris meeting on climate change will be setting out to build a modern Tower of Babel.” See link under A Stern Review


US Energy Plan: Ernest Moniz and John Holdren announced a review of the current state of energy technology. After the now usual rhetoric that global climate change, caused by carbon dioxide from energy use, is one of the most significant threats to the well-being of people now alive as well as to that of future generations, the statement claims that the released second Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR) “identifies game-changing clean and efficient energy technologies.” The report promotes the current construction of four nuclear reactors, wind power and solar power.

Reliable electricity is critical for modern civilization. The administration’s top scientists fail to mention the greatest failure in Mr. Obama’s power plan – the inability to store electricity on an affordable, commercial scale. The only proven method is pumped storage; but, the administration’s intensified water regulations make it doubtful if any new such facilities can be built. But the plan contains a promise: “Energy storage: Fundamental research on efficient, durable storage could enable transformational change across multiple sectors, including transportation, and the electricity system.” [Boldface added].

The statement also claims: “The QTR provides a blueprint for the Energy Department’s energy-technology development and for enabling the science that will make future technology breakthroughs possible.” Some hoped for breakthroughs may never materialize. Great technological advances in one area do not necessarily mean great advances in another area.

The statement claims that: “Since the last QTR was published in 2011, the number of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) demonstration projects has doubled globally.” SEPP was unable to identify one commercially viable project that is not connected to using carbon dioxide to produce additional quantities of oil or natural gas from wells. The British CCS project is in trouble as private companies power have pulled out due to reversals on subsides making the project too risky to proceed.

The US plan promises energy savings. Many such promises have been based on making labor saving appliances more energy efficient; but, less efficient for humans, or more expensive. See links under The Administration’s Plan and Questioning European Green


RICO 20: As expected, there is push-back against the 20 people who signed a letter addressed to the US President and the Attorney General demanding racketeering (RICO) investigations of those who disagree with their views about climate change. The critiques reflect the saying: “Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones.”

The letter does not advance science, but largely ignores it – namely the inability of global warming proponents to advance climate science significantly beyond the Charney Report of 1979. One of the critiques brought up that some of RICO 20 signers are from the government-funded Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University. The actions of the RICO 20 are similar to the actions during World War I by the U.S. Committee on Public Information, actions which participant Edward Bernays later called propaganda. Is the Center for Climate Change Communication a reincarnation of the WW I committee? See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back.


Blood Moon: For parts of the world, September 27, 2015, will be marked by the eclipse of the harvest moon, the largest apparent full moon, creating what is called a “blood moon.” September 27 is Fred Singer’s 91st birthday. Is the heavenly event a celebration of Mr. Singer’s birthday? Ever-skeptical Fred Singer would say no. See link under Other News that May Be of Interest.


Number of the Week: 7 years. Washington’s time frame for review of Keystone, now 7 years, is taking on biblical proportions – the concept of indefinite plentitude.

It took less time to build the transcontinental railroad, 1,907 miles, from Council Bluffs, Iowa, to the San Francisco Bay, connecting the eastern railroad system to the Pacific coast. The railroad was built largely by hand and explosives, and supplied by newly laid rail. Today, the bureaucrats in Washington are using high speed computers to generate mounds of meaningless paper.

Washington is involved because the pipeline will cross the international border. This is how Washington treats the largest trading partner of the US and the country with which it has its longest border. Should the President of China trust Washington? See links under Washington’s Control of Energy.



Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.

1. Methane Madness: Science Does Not Support White House Policy

By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Sep 22, 2015


SUMMARY: The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on 18 August 2015 proposed regulations to reduce emissions of methane. These regulations would be the first to directly restrict methane emissions by the oil and gas industry; they build on a 2012 rule that sought to curb volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to extract natural gas. Combined, the two regulations could reduce the oil and gas sector’s methane emissions by up to 30% by 2025, compared with 2012 levels, EPA says.

The proposed EPA regulations are part of a larger effort by the White House to reduce national methane emissions by 40–45% by 2025. [See go.nature.com/o6uzlj for more detail.] But methane has only negligible influence on climate — contrary to popular belief and contrary to the claims of the IPCC, the UN’s climate science panel. Basic physics does not support White House policies to control methane emissions.


2. Methane Regulation: Some Personal Recollections

By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Sep 23, 2015


SUMMARY: The White House-EPA plan to control methane emissions is but the latest effort against our domestic energy industry and would simply raise costs to consumers. It acts like an energy tax, but with no money flowing into the US Treasury – a pure waste of resources. EPA is apparently unaware that the generally believed greenhouse (GH) effectiveness of methane (when compared to a molecule of CO2) is too high by a factor of about 100. In addition, atmospheric methane levels are roughly 200 times less than those of CO2 – yielding a GH overestimate of about 20,000. This display of recent scientific ignorance has brought back memories of 45 years ago.


3. Gas Prices Ought to Be Lower

Oil prices have dropped 60%, but a gallon of gas is down only 25%. Why? Regulation isn’t cheap.

By Jacob Borden, WSJ, Sep 23, 2015


SUMMARY: “Though commonly known as commodities, oil and refined fuels are increasingly design-specific products. That is, the price you pay at the pump for a gallon reflects local constraints, not merely the price of oil. No two refineries are designed identically, and no new world-scale refinery has been built in the U.S. since 1976. Meanwhile, the global oil market has grown more diverse, including heavier, unconventional tar sands and shale oils as well as relatively light and sweet benchmark crudes.


“Some refineries are limited by the amount of asphalt they can accept in their crude, while others are limited by their capacity to remove sulfur. Only a handful of U.S. refiners have so far elected for the extensive upgrades and regulatory approvals needed to process large amounts of unconventional crude. Thus the regulatory burdens are leaving the American refinery fleet largely inflexible. That’s why crude-oil processing has become specific to the design details of each refinery.”

Further, the refinery fleet is complicated by a wide variety of specialized fuels required in specific areas.

“This is exacerbated by the renewable-fuels mandate, which requires blending nearly all gasoline with ethanol. Ethanol, when mixed with gasoline, increases the tendency for the lightest molecules to evaporate and contribute to urban smog. Gasoline therefore has to be stripped of so-called light-ends, increasing refining costs while reducing the yield of marketable fuel.

“A similar set of regulatory constraints is affecting the retail price of diesel. In 2007, the EPA lowered the sulfur limit for on-road diesel to 15 parts per million, and for the first time applied the previous specification of 500 parts per million to off-road diesel—railroad and marine fuels, for instance. The 15 parts per million ultralow sulfur diesel specification now applies to off-road diesel as well. Meeting the new specifications has left refiners with three options: use only the lightest and sweetest crudes, operate equipment harder and sacrifice yields, or invest to maintain capacity.”

”And so this regulatory patchwork builds a price premium into every gallon, essentially to compensate refiners for providing fuels that meet ever-increasing regulatory and production demands. The result: When oil prices rise, the rise is reflected in retail fuel prices. But when oil prices fall, the relief you feel at the pump is limited.”


4. The VW Emission Bug

Why would the company install a ‘defeat device’ on its U.S. cars?

Editorial, WSJ, Sep 23, 2015


SUMMARY: The editorial answers the questions how and why. How, electronic sensors and the software recognize if the automobile is being driven or if it is undergoing a stationary test. Under the former, the anti-NOx system is turned off. Why, the system reduces fuel mileage and torque, the ability to accelerate, often called performance.

{SEPP Comment: The systems demonstrate the enormous complexity and miniaturization of electronics and sensors in automotive systems.]



Science: Is the Sun Rising?

2 More Papers! RUSSIAN ICE CORES Show Powerful Relationship Between Solar Activity And Antarctic Climate!

The sun drives the climate

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Sep 25, 2015


4 New Papers Show Sun’s Impact On Global Climate. German Scientists: Sun Is “A Major Climate Factor”

The Sun Drives Climate: The Latest from America

By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Sep 24, 2015


Climategate Continued

The “Blade” of Ocean2K

By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 19, 2015


Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back

Climate Science Turned Monster

Guest Opinion: Tim Ball, WUWT, Sep 19, 2015


Disinformation from Barry Klinger and the RICO 20

By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 25, 2015


Muck and brass

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 21, 2015


“The news about Shukla is just the latest in a long line of stories showing that the loudest scaremongers in the Green blob are able to command extraordinary incomes.”

Climate Scientists give up on science, talk tobacco, want to jail skeptics

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 21, 2015


Edward Maibach, The Center for Climate Change Communication & That Letter

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 24, 2015


Leading Climate Scientists Blast Letter By 20 Academics As “Naïve” …”Implied Coercion” Damages Field Of Science.

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 23, 2015


Should Global Warming Skeptics Go To Court, Be Tossed In Prison?

By Kerry Jackson, IBD, Sep 21, 2015


Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013


Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014


Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy

New Science 1: Pushing the edge of climate research. Back to the new-old way of doing science

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 22, 2015


New Science 2: The Conventional Basic Climate Model — the engine of “certain” warming

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 23, 2015


New Science 3: The Conventional Basic Climate Model — In Full

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 25, 2015


New Science 4: Error 1: Partial Derivatives

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 26, 2015


New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 21, 2015


Link to book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science

By Alan Longhurst, A biological oceanographer, March 2012 – September 2015


“One of the things my research career taught me was that you can’t understand how the ocean works from studying one region – just as I know that you can’t make any solid conclusions about how the climate works from studying just the short period since 1960, which is what many people are doing.”

For Climate Alarmism, The Poor Pay The Price

By Michael Kelly, Standpoint, Oct 2015


The Major Unsolved Climate Alarmist Political Problem

By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 24, 2015


Defending the Orthodoxy

Climate policy: Democracy is not an inconvenience

Climate scientists are tiring of governance that does not lead to action. But democracy must not be weakened in the fight against global warming, warns Nico Stehr.

By Nico Stehr, Nature, Sep 22, 2015 [H/t GWPF]


Focus: Society and the Pope’s encyclical

By Staff Writers, Nature Climate Change, Sep 24, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Various views on the Pope’s encyclical.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Strange New Climate Change Spin: The Hottest Year Ever Inside a Global Warming ‘Pause’?

By William Briggs, The Stream, Sep 23, 2015


Climate scientists can restart the climate change debate & win: test the models!

By Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website, WUWT, Sep 24, 2015


[SEPP Comment: The advocates do not wish to debate and the cost of running the models is large.]

Climate Change – The U.S. Is Irrelevant

Here is NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No 344

Guest Writer Kerry Brown, ESQ, St. Petersburg, FL, Sep 22, 2015


How many children died because peer reviewed data was buried and results cherry-picked?

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 20, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Applying the experience in the drug industry to misrepresentation by the Climate Establishment.]

The China – US Agreement?

China Visit Underlines Climate Change’s Dodgy Value

Editorial, IBD, Sep 25, 2015


On to Paris!

Obama’s Plan to Avoid Senate Review of the Paris Protocol

By Steven Groves, Heritage Foundation, Sep 21, 2015


The Administration’s Plan

The Current State of Energy Technology

By Ernest Moniz and John Holdren, Energy Gov. Sep 10, 2015


Link to report: Quadrennial Technology Review: A Assessment of Energy Technologies and Research Opportunities

By Staff Writers, Department of Energy, September, 2015

Executive Summary at: http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/09/f26/QTR2015-Executive-Summary.pdf

Full Report at: http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/09/f26/Quadrennial-Technology-Review-2015.pdf

The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back

None Dare Call It Conspiracy: Obama’s Coordinated Climate Campaign

By Christopher Horner, IBD, Sep 22, 2015


Chilling Testimony on the Clean Power Plan

By Thomas Lindsay, Real Clear Policy, Sep 23, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]


Link to study: Potential Energy Impacts of the EPA Proposed Clean Power Plan

By Staff Writers, National Economic Research Associates, Oct 2014


Problems in the Orthodoxy

US Climate Finance in Limbo, Risking ‘Trust Gap’ Before Paris

By Valerie Volcovici, Reuters, Sep 24, 2015


Seeking a Common Ground

Associated Press drops ‘Climate Denier’ Label

By Paul Colford, AP, Via Sep 23, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Changing “Climate Change Denier” to “Climate Change Doubter” still ignores the central issue. How about “Doubter of Politicized Climate Science?’]

Tilting at windmills – 100% renewable energy

By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 25, 2015


“The report talks about the need to address the challenges and develop generating, storage, heating and cooling technologies, but gives no real examples of how this could be done. Working through scenarios on the assumption that the right technology exists is all very well, but they would be much more credible if potential solutions to the many existing problems had been put forward. Maybe innovations in coming decades will make more widespread use of renewables a viable and economic option. Until then, the energy [r]evolution remains a dream.”

[SEPP Comment: Analysis of a Greenpeace report.]

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

A 400-Year Temperature Record from the Russian Far East

Wiles, G.C., Solomina, O., D’Arrigo, R., Anchukaitis, K.J., Gensiarovsky, Y.V. and Wiesenberg, N. 2015. Reconstructed summer temperatures over the last 400 years based on larch ring widths: Sakhalin Island, Russian Far East. Climate Dynamics 45: 397-405. Sep 22, 2015


“Thus, we have yet another example refuting the climate alarmist claim that temperatures of the past few decades are exceptional or unprecedented over the past thousand years or more.”

Uncorrected Climate Model Biases Over the Tropical Indian Ocean

Li, G., Xie, S.-P. and Du, Y. 2015. Monsoon-induced biases of climate models over the tropical Indian Ocean. Journal of Climate 28: 3058-3072. Sep 21, 2015


…[The researchers] “go on to conclude that although the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report’characterizes this future IO dipole-like projection in the mean state as robust based on consistency among models,’ their own findings (as well as those of many other researchers they site), ‘cast doubts on this conclusion.’”

The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in the Bay of Biscay

Mary, Y., Eynaud, F., Zaragosi, S., Malaize, B., Cremer, M. and Schmidt, S. 2014. High frequency environmental changes and deposition processes in a 2 kyr-long sedimentological record from the Cap-Breton canyon (Bay of Biscay). The Holocene 25: 348-365. Sep 21, 2015


“Once again, therefore, we have further confirmation of the reality of the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period, along with new evidence from the Bay of Biscay, where peak mean annual temperature (MAT) of the Medieval Warm Period was approximately 1.7°C warmer than the peak MAT of the Current Warm Period (see figure above from which this calculation was derived).”

CMIP5 Hind-Casting of Precipitation in the Karakoram-Himalaya

Palazzi, E., von Hardenberg, J., Terzago, S. and Provenzale, A. 2015. Precipitation in the Karakoram-Himalaya: a CMIP5 view. Climate Dynamics 45: 21-45. Sep 17, 2015


So — are we there yet? — as the saying goes. Not by a long shot! And this is only one aspect of the many climate model inadequacies that are described and discussed on our website under the general heading of Climate Models (Inadequacies).

Measurement Issues

Met Office Shows How To Simplify, Then Exaggerate

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Sep 18, 2015


Link to report: Big changes underway in the climate system?

By Staff Writers, Met Office, Sep 14, 2015


“The report is described as new research. It isn’t. It pretends to be an even-handed assessment of current science, but in reality ties itself up in contradictions whilst trying to imply it knows more than it actually does. It presents a patina of confidence in its ability to advise on what may happen in the future, but can’t bring itself to state clearly the obvious conclusion of the science it surveys. That is, no one knows what will happen to global temperatures in the near future.”

Camouflage illusions in the matrix: same mysterious temperature, same day, year after year

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 25, 2015


[SEPP Comment: How could Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology create detailed maps for specific days one hundred years before instruments in the area existed?]

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is mapped in major U.S. cities

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 18, 2015


Changing Weather

NOAA: Hurricane Drought Hits Record 119 Months

By Barbara Hollinsworth, CNS News, Sep 24, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]


Changing Seas

Doubling up the sea level scare for Paris using the old ‘one-two punch’ line

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 21, 2015


Fishy Tales of the Great Barrier Reef

By Walter Starck, Quadrant, Sep 24, 2015


“Among the many life forms thriving in the waters off Queensland’s coast, environmental activists and academic careerists are by the far most adaptable. Despite voluminous evidence that the Reef is healthy, they extract careers, grants and donations from dumb coral — and dumber journalists.”

[SEPP Comment: From a marine scientist with 50 years’ experience studying coral reefs.]

September 2015 ENSO Update – Sea Surface Temperatures Continue to Rise in the Central Equatorial Pacific

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Sep 21, 2015


Research uncovers microsopic key to reducing ocean dead zones

By Staff Writers, Provo UT (SPX), Sep 23, 2015


“Their research, the most recent of which publishes this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is discovering the potential of naturally-occurring bacteria called rhizobia to stem the tide of oversaturation with nitrogen-based fertilizers.”

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Summer refuge for polar bears in Arctic Basin only 0.3 mkm2 below its possible maximum

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 22, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Another way to present the maximum extent of summer ice loss in the Arctic Basin – a 9% loss or down to about 91% of the maximum ice possible.]

Arctic Ice Pause Enters Ninth Year

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Sep 22, 2015


As polar ice melts, seabed life is working against climate change

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Sep 22, 2015


Link to paper: Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown

By D.K.A. Barnes, Current Biology, Sep 21, 2015


Acidic Waters

Ocean acidification discussion thread

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 23, 2015


“Open Thread”

Un-Science or Non-Science?

Costly permafrost emissions

New analysis of the effects of melting permafrost in the Arctic points to $43 trillion in extra economic damage by the end of the next century, on top of the more than the $300 trillion economic damage already predicted.

By Staff Writers, Cambridge University, Sep 21, 2015


“This brings the total predicted impact of climate change by 2200 to $369 trillion…”

[SEPP Comment: The 2015 US economic output is estimated to be about $18 trillion or less than 5% of the calculated amount.]

New computer model says human emissions can ‘render Earth ice free’

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 24, 2015


Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Is climate change killing American starfish?

By Magan Crane Forks, United States (AFP) Sept 22, 2015


[SEPP Comment: From Alaska to California??? Assuming the cause without bothering to do elementary research.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Global warming: are trees going on strike?

By Joshua Melvin, Paris (AFP) Sept 23, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Could the delay in early blooming be from cooling?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

Exploitation of Ignorance About Climate, Reflects How Current Education Is Really Indoctrination.

By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Sep 23, 2015


Another attempt at Cooking settling consensus on climate change

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 24, 2015


Expanding the Orthodoxy

How the IAEA Will Contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals

By Nicole Jawerth and Miklos Gaspar, IAEA, Sep 25, 2015


“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.”

Starbucks, Nike join 100% renewable energy pledge

By Staff Writers, New York (AFP), Sept 23, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Heavy industrial users of US electricity they are not. It would be interesting to see a Walmart department store run exclusively on solar and wind.]

Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope

The Pope & the Market

William D. Nordhaus, The New York Review of Books, Oct 8, 2015


Review of: Laudato Si’: On Care for Our Common Home

An encyclical letter by Pope Francis, Vatican Press, 184 pp., available at w2.vatican.va

[SEPP Comment: Nordhaus argues for government interference with free markets using the contrived concept of “social cost of carbon.”]

Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope – Loyal Opposition

Pope Francis: Before one can know what is moral, he must know what is true.

By Dr. Craig D. Idso, Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Sep 23, 2015


Global warming policies are the real threat to the world’s most vulnerable people

Pope on wrong side of history on climate change

By Tom Harris, International Climate Science Coalition, Via Australian Climate Skeptics, Sep 24, 2015


Pope Francis’ fact-free flamboyance

By George Will, Washington Post Sep 18, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Blunt statements – Not quite so loyal.]

Questioning European Green

Britain’s Green Policy Falling Apart As Drax Quits CCS

By Pilita Clark, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 24, 2015


Questioning Green Elsewhere

Federal Welfare Protects Ontario From Failure Of Green Energy Policies.

By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Sep 20, 2015


Non-Green Jobs

China’s dumped steel leaves UK industry facing fight for survival

The Government is being urged to bail out the threatened Redcar steel plant and save 2,000 jobs

By Andrew Critchlow, Telegraph, UK, Sep 20, 2015 [H/t GWPF]


“Another handicap facing British producers is the high cost of energy. Chinese steel mills benefit from cheap domestically-produced metallurgical coal and do not have to meet tough air pollution standards due here by 2020.”

Funding Issues

Why the MacArthur Foundation is doubling down on climate change

By Robert Kropp, Green Biz, Sep 22, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Another $50 million to green groups.]

Litigation Issues

Computer crimes

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 21, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Points out a significant error in a Guardian article about attorney Philippe Sands. Sands was commenting on the need for a court competent to rule on scientific questions.]

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

China Recycles: Another Attempt at Cap and Trade

By Patrick Michaels, Cato, Sep 25, 2015


Carbon Pricing Poised for Rapid Adoption, World Bank Says

By Mathew Car, Bloomberg, Sep 20, 2015


Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Carbon mandate: an account of collusion, cutting corners and costing Americans billions

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 25, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Review of a report by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee]

EPA and other Regulators on the March

E&E Legal on the Capture of EPA

By JV DeLong, Forbes, Sep 18, 2015


EPA’s Gold King Whitewash, Part II (What EPA, DRMS, and ER should have done)

By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Sep 24, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Second of three parts.]

New Mexico official: EPA kept water data secret after spill

By Matthew Brown, AP, Sep 17, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]


Energy Issues – Non-US

Shale gas – an inconvenient truth for the anti-fracking lobby

By Andrea Leadsom, Minister of State, UK, Sep 23, 2015 [H/t GWPF]


“Energy strategy in Britain has three big goals; keeping the lights on, keeping the bills down, and moving to a clean energy future.”

Smart Coal: Putting People Ahead of Climate Hysteria (Japan vs. Obama)

By Donn Dears, Master Resource, Sep 21, 2015


CBI Concerned About Britain’s Green Policy Reversals

By Pillita Clark, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 22, 2015


Energy Issues — US

Fracking Productivity Doubling Every Two Years

By Chriss Street, Breitbart, Sep 21, 2015


The Evolution of the Fracking Revolution

By Gary Jason, American Thinker, Sep 24, 2015


Washington’s Control of Energy

Seven years later, Keystone XL decision is due

By Luke Hilgemann, The Hill, Sep 19, 2015


“How’s this for American exceptionalism: It has now officially taken longer for the federal government to review the Keystone XL pipeline’s permit application than it did to build the entire transcontinental railroad 150 years ago.”

Harming our Canadian Friends

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 22, 2015


Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Historical Oil Prices Chart

Oil Prices in Inflation Adjusted Terms

By Tim McMahon, Inflation Data.com, Apr 30, 2015


The Real Price of Oil

You have to account not just for inflation but for what economists call “oil intensity”

By Vaclav Smil, IEEE Spectrum, Sep 21, 2015


Nuclear Energy and Fears

Fukushima disaster was preventable

By Staff Writers, Los Angeles CA (SPX), Sep 22, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Yes.]


The Lords on fusion

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 22, 2015


“Lord Peston: I am a bit lost again—as you can tell, I get lost all the time. How can technology that will be available in 40 to 80 years possibly influence climate change? If we have to save the planet in the next 40 years, we are doomed anyway. You cannot use the climate change argument.”

UK Agrees £2 Billion Taxpayer Subsidy For Nuclear Power Project

By Robin Pagnamenta , The Times, Via GWPF, Sep 21, 2015


“The financing guarantee, backed by taxpayers, was announced as George Osborne arrived in China for final talks about the troubled project to build two giant 1.6-gigawatt nuclear reactors in Somerset — enough to supply electricity to six million British homes.

“Despite mounting criticism of the estimated £24.5 billion cost of the new station, to be built by EDF Energy, of France, and bankrolled partly by the Chinese government, the chancellor said that he was determined to press ahead with a project that he claimed would boost UK energy supplies and revive Britain’s standing as a world leader in nuclear energy.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Greening the electric grid with gas turbines

Massive deployment of storage not needed for renewable sources to play large ‘decarbonization’ role

By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Sep 21, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]


Link to paper: How much bulk energy storage is needed to decarbonize electricity

By Safaei and Keith, Energy and Environmental Science, Sep 4, 2015


[SEPP Comment: The time-resolution of 15 minutes poorly describes the erratic power from wind.]

The Night They Drove the Price of Electricity Down

Wind power was so plentiful in Texas that producers sold it at a negative price. What?

By Daniel Gross, Slate, Sep 18, 2015


Carbon Schemes

The fading dream of CCS

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 25, 2015


California Dreaming

California energy dreaming costs consumers billions

By Dan McSwain, San Diego Union-Tribune, Sep 19, 2015 [H/t GWPF]


Health, Energy, and Climate

Malaria maths

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 25, 2015


On The Bright Side: Declining Deaths Due to Hot and Cold Temperatures in Hong Kong

By Craig Idso, Cato, Sep 17, 2015


Oh Mann!

Steyn puts Warmists in the Dock

By Richard Kirk, American Thinker, Sep 19, 2015


[SEPP Comment: Another review of Steyn’s book on Mr. Mann.]

Other News that May Be of Interest

Oldest traces of heavy metal pollution caused by humans uncovered

By Staff Writers, AFP, Sep 21, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]


[SEPP Comment: Humans polluting since early stone-age!]

Perfect Sky Conditions Tomorrow for Supermoon Eclipse

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 26, 2015


[SEPP Comment: For the Pacific Northwest.]

Political Correctness Replaces The Tyranny of the Majority With The Tyranny Of The Minority.

By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Sep 24, 2015


“As Jacques Barzun put it, ‘Political correctness does not legislate tolerance; it only organizes hatred.’”

Space Architecture: From Outer Space to the Ocean Floor

By Jeannie Kever for UH News, Houston TX (SPX), Sep 22, 2015




Hilarious claim: “we know when global (cough, cough) warming first appeared in the temperature record, er, models”

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 22, 2015


Claim: Global warming is shortening the tongues of Bumble Bees

Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 25, 2015


Earth gets Royal reprieve!

“Prince Charles told 200 business leaders in Rio de Janeiro that the world has “less than 100 months” to save the planet.”

By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Sep 19, 2015


From Telegraph, UK, Mar 12, 2009

Failed Kiribati Climate Refugee finally leaves New Zealand

Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 22, 2015



0 0 votes
Article Rating
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
September 28, 2015 6:45 am

“fitting for economies that are undergoing prolonged economic recession or depression”
Which is what they have in mind for most of us.

September 28, 2015 6:58 am

‘Greening the electric grid with gas turbines:
We could cut electric-sector carbon emissions to less than a
third their current levels using variable renewables with
natural gas to manage the intermittency’
Can’t happen; there will be no business case for natural gas turbines if two thirds of power is coming from renewables. No one is going to build a power plant to run occasionally.

September 28, 2015 6:59 am

“Seven years later, Keystone XL decision is due”
No. The decision was rendered in January 2012.

%d bloggers like this: