From the UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES (via Eurekalert) and the “Where’s Waldo?” department comes this hilarious claim. Why hilarious? Because the headline says “global warming”, yet the research says that warming appeared in different decades in different parts of the world. So much for the “global” part. But, it gets better, the money quote says the USA isn’t conforming to the expected warming signal, but, “…according to the models but it is expected they will appear in the next decade.”
And then there’s this:
Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas.
I have to wonder, do these people even read their own press releases and apply a sanity check? Given that UNSW is the source of the Dr. Chris Turney “ship of fools” fiasco, probably not.
Researchers reveal when global warming first appeared
When global warming became clearly evident in the temperature record
The indications of climate change are all around us today but now researchers have revealed for the first time when and where the first clear signs of global warming appeared in the temperature record and where those signals are likely to be clearly seen in extreme rainfall events in the near future.
The new research published in Environmental Research Letters gives an insight into the global impacts that have already been felt, even at this very early stage, and where those impacts are likely to intensify in the coming years.
“We examined average and extreme temperatures because they were always projected to be the measure that is most sensitive to global warming,” said lead author from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Dr Andrew King.
“Remarkably our research shows that you could already see clear signs of global warming in the tropics by the 1960s but in parts of Australia, South East Asia and Africa it was visible as early as the 1940s.”
The reason the first changes in average temperature and temperature extremes appeared in the tropics was because those regions generally experienced a much narrower range of temperatures. This meant smaller shifts in the temperature record due to global warming were more easily seen.
The first signal to appear in the tropics was the change in average temperatures. Later extreme temperature events showed a global warming signal.
Closer to the poles the emergence of climate change in the temperature record appeared later but by the period 1980-2000 the temperature record in most regions of the world were showing clear global warming signals.
One of the few exceptions to this clear global warming signal was found in large parts of the continental United States, particularly on the Eastern coast and up through the central states. These regions have yet to manifest obvious warming signals according to the models but it is expected they will appear in the next decade.
While temperature records generally showed pronounced indications of global warming, heavy rainfall events have yet to make their mark. The models showed a general increase in extreme rainfall but the global warming signal was not strong enough yet to rise above the expected natural variation.
“We expect the first heavy precipitation events with a clear global warming signal will appear during winters in Russia, Canada and northern Europe over the next 10-30 years,” said co-author Dr Ed Hawkins from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, UK.
“This is likely to bring pronounced precipitation events on top of the already existing trend towards increasingly wet winters in these regions.”
Importantly, the findings closely correspond to observational datasets used by the IPCC (Chapter 10 – Detection and Attribution of Climate Change) in its most recent report, which showed increasing temperatures caused by global warming.
###
Here is the abstract, yes that’s right, the title says the entire thing is a simulation, something not quite so clear from their press release where they say things like:
“…now researchers have revealed for the first time when and where the first clear signs of global warming appeared in the temperature record…”
Uh, no. Model output is not the actual temperature record.
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
Andrew D King, Markus G Donat, Erich M Fischer, Ed Hawkins, Lisa V Alexander, David J Karoly,Andrea J Dittus, Sophie C Lewis, and Sarah E Perkins
Abstract
Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means,
due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to
do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.
Source: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015/meta
The paper is open source, should you want to bother reading it. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015/pdf
Note: this story was edited shortly after publication to remove a duplicated word, “the”.
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Just what is a “quasi natural state”?
Whatever you want it to be.
Quasimoto?
I think they just give the college kids some crayons and let them color in where they imagine the AGW is happening. Probably more accurate than computer models.
Now we know why they believe sometimes 1 + 1 = 3
It’s turtles all the way down.
Bishop Ussher, please call your office.
These guys have never heard of the Texas Sharpshooter’s Fallacy, I’m guessing.
From Section 2 of the paper:
“Project CMIP5; Taylor et al 2012 combining historical (1860–2005) and RCP8.5 scenario(2006–2099) simulations from six climate models (table S1) were used in
this analysis.”
So they made up scenarios out to the year 2099 and used them. ROTFLMAO!
And to what standard was the temperature coverage 1860-1920? For instance,
At Burke, in western NSW, BoM deleted the first 40 years of data because temperatures before 1908 were apparently not recorded in a Stevenson screen, the agreed modern method.
Marohasy says this could have been easily accounted for with an accepted algorithm, which would not have changed the fact that it was obviously much hotter in the early 20th century than for any period since. Instead, the early record is deleted, and the post-1910 data homogenised.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/heat-is-on-over-weather-bureau-homogenising-temperature-records/story-e6frgd0x-1227033714144?sv=d69749cc8954cf3877501fca2818acd
The only place on the planet not to demonstrate the signal is the area containing the largest concentration of idiots that believe in Global Warming. The area also contains the highest concentration of pseudo-scientists that participate in the Bribe Science of Climatology. With the highest per-capita earnings of Government grants and 6 digit employment opportunities attempting to prove their Bribe Science, this area benefits more from the Hoax of Global Warming than any area on the planet earth. The area in question also serves as the origin of all exotic trips to distant points on the planet where the Bribe Scientists swill their fine wines and consume culinary delicacies as they prepare for their forays into the outer reaches of the planet to PROVE that the temperatures have increased. Far be it from them to use the largest accumulated detailed temperature record in human existence in their own region of the planet to prove their Hoax. Better left to the far reaches.
This definition of global warming was invented post facto:
“The first signal to appear in the tropics was the change in average temperatures. Later extreme temperature events showed a global warming signal.”
They have tuned the definition to the data they have and are then calling it evidence meeting that definition.
It would be interesting to see what the ‘evidence’ looked like if GISS had not adjusted the temperatures down so much mid-century. It would enhance the tropical ‘evidence’.
Why not have it all ways? Use the raw data to claim evidence of global warming and use the adjusted data to claim it is continuing, Then use the homogenized sea temperature data to claim there is no hiatus. Presto: proof.
+1!
That’s exactly what they did.
If one applied the exact same technique to all the data we have available. they would “discover” the exact same signs of AGW only starting a few thousand years ago at the end of the last ice age. So their deception is two fold. They tuned their definition to the data, and cut the data off before 1930 to hide the fact that what hey found has been happening for thousands of years.
It is a fine example of what we should expect from colleagues of Chris Turney, a professor of climate change at the University of New South Wales, and a gifted Antarctic explorer.
You made me laugh, Curious George. I love humour treading the fine line between being understated and sarcastic.
Mention of Chris Turney reminded me that I was intending to check whether any papers had come out of the aborted expedition to the Antarctic last year .
I primed Google scholar with his name and a fairly wide date range . Nothing obvious from 2014 – 2015 relating to that expedition , but it threw up some past papers which reveal an interesting side to the character . Principally he actually does fieldwork and lab analysis , not just sitting at a supercomputer (although he may do that as well ).eg a recent paper was on the counting of skua colonies in Commonwealth bay and Antarctica and comparing results to those of 1911-13 expeditions . He actually reports long term stability , no “OMG they are dying out and its our fault”.
Another recent paper was on the analysis of carbon residues in Falkland Isles blown over by South Hemisphere westerlies .
http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chris_Turney/publication/278242099_Climates_of_the_Past/links/557d787508aeea18b777baeb.pdf
He suggests the possibility of solar forcing as a weather or climate factor , which should please some here , and proposes the possibility of a 250yr periodicity
“Spectral analysis identifies a robust 250 yr periodicity, with
evidence of stronger westerly airflow between 2000 and 1000 calendar yrs. Along with
5other records, this periodicity strongly suggests solar forcing plays a significant role
in modulating the strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, something hitherto
not recognised, and will form the focus of future research”
Finally he has written a book on archaeology , so by definition he cannot be a bad guy -( hopefully this conclusion will not get me banned, although probably derided.)
Why would it get you banned? This isn’t realclimate!
[Reply: Exactly right. Science-based discussion is never censored here, much less causing a commenter to be banned. Even if a comment is obviously, preposterously, provably wrong, we leave it to the readers to decide on its merits. ~mod.]
“Remarkably our research shows that you could already see clear signs of global warming in the tropics by the 1960s but in parts of Australia, South East Asia and Africa it was visible as early as the 1940s.”
how odd, the last world drought was back in 1934-
amazing , all this before the real visible signs-
1933: Rare Hurricane Slams Into South Africa
1933: Bitter Winter Weather In Russia & Europe: Snow Causes Wolves To Attack Train
1933: West Australian Heat Wave – “Severest In History”
1933: Heat Waves, Floods, Droughts, Famines Plague China
1933: Spain’s Heat Wave: 130 Degrees In Shade
1933: Heat Wave Causes New Jersey Road To “Explode”
1933: Hottest June In U.S. History – Heat Wave & Drought
1933: 21 Perish During Texas, Louisiana Tornado & Hail Storms
1933: Drought In South Africa – “Worst Outlook For 50 Years”
1933: Flooding In China Kills 50,000
1933: India’s Ganges River Bursts Its Banks – Widespread Flood Damage & Fatalities
1934: 80% of U.S. Suffers From Drought Conditions
1934: “Heat Wave In China Kills One In Every Thousand”
1934: Antarctic Has Incredible Heat Wave – 25 Degrees Over Zero
1934: February Tornado Strikes Several U.S. States
1934: World Wide Drought & Heat Causes Vast Majority of Alps’ Glaciers To Melt
1934: Iowa Heat Wave In May – Pushes Temps Over 110 Degrees
1934: All 48 U.S. States Over 100 Degrees During June
1934: 14 Days of Above 100°F Temps Kill Over 600 Americans
1934: South African Drought Severely Hits Farmers
1934: Nebraska Temperatures Soar To 117 Degrees
1934: Drought, Heat, Floods, Cyclones, & Forest Fires Hit Europe
1934: British Drought Stunts Hay Growth
1934: Worst Drought In England For 100 Years
1934: 7 Days of Incessant, Torrential Rains Cause Massive Flooding In Eastern Bengal
1934: Global Warming Causes 81% Of Swiss Glaciers To Retreat
1934: Canadian Crops Blasted By Intense Heat Wave
1934: “South African Floods Are Unprecedented”
1934: Typhoon Hits Japan Followed By A Massive Tsunami
1934: Record Heat And Drought Across The Midwest
1934: China’s Fall Crops Burning Up During Drought & Heat
1934: Five Million Americans Face Starvation From Drought
1934: Adelaide, Australia Has Record Dry Spell
1934: Gigantic Hailstorm Blankets South African Drought Region
1934: Drought And Sweltering Heat In England
1934: Record Heat Bakes Wisconsin – 104°F
1934: 20 Nebraskans Succumb To Unprecedented 117 Degree Heat
1934: Poland Swamped By Floods – Hundreds Perish
1934: 115 Degrees In Iowa Breaks Record
1934: 115 Degrees Reached In China In The Shade – Heat Wave Ruining Crops
1934: Majority of Continental U.S. Suffers From Drought Conditions
1934: Severe Northern Hemisphere Drought Causes Wheat Prices To “Skyrocket”
1934: Extreme U.S. Winter Weather Leaves 60 Dead In Its Path
1935: Severe Wind Storm Lashes Western States With 60 MPH Gusts
1935: Florida Burns Its Dead After The Most Powerful Hurricane In US History
1935: “The Worst Dust Storm In History” – Kansas City
1935: Worst Drought Since 1902 Has Queensland, Australia In Its Grip
1935: “50 Dust Storms In 104″ Days
1935: France Cooked By Heat Wave
1935: Tropical Windstorm Strikes Texas With 85 MPH Gusts
1935: ‘Black Dusters’ Strike Again In The Texas Dust Bowl
1935: India Hit With Extreme Heat Wave – 124 Degrees
1935: Heat Wave, Drought & Torrential Rains Cause Misery In Europe
1936: “Niagara Falls Freezes Into One Giant Icicle”
1936: February Was Coldest In U.S. History
1936: Italian Alps Glacier Shrinks: WWI Army Bodies Uncovered By Melting
1936: Ice Bridge In Iceland Collapses From Heat Wave & Glacier Melt
1936: Violent Tornadoes Pummel The South – 300 Dead
1936: Dust, Snow & Wind Storm Hit Kansas Region In Same Day
1936: Unprecedented Heat Wave In Moscow
1936: Ukraine Wheat Harvest Threatened By Heat Wave
1936: 780 Canadians Die From Heat Wave
1936: Iowa Heat Wave Has 12 Days of Temperatures Over 100 Degrees
1936: Heat Wave Deaths In Just One Small U.S. City: 50 Die In Springfield, IL
1936: Missouri Heat Wave: 118 Degrees & 311 Deaths
1936: Ontario, Canada Suffers 106 Degree Temps During Heat Wave
1936: Alaska’s 10-Day Heat Wave Tops Out At 108 Degrees
1936 : Record Heat Wave Bakes Midwest; “Condition of Crops Critical”
1936: Midwest Climate So Bad That Climate Scientist Recommends Evacuation of Central U.S.
1936: 12,000 Perish In U.S. Heat Wave – Murderous Week
1936: Single Day Death Toll From Heat Wave – 1,000 Die
1936: Iceland Hurricane Sinks Polar Research Ship Filled With Scientists
1936: Severe Drought & Disastrous Floods In Southern Texas
1936: 20,000 Homeless In Flame Ravaged Forests of Oregon
1936: Northern California Seared By Forest Fires Over 400-Mile Front
1936: Tremendous Gale & Mountainous Waves Pound S. California – 7 Persons Missing
1936: Glacier Park Hotel Guests Flee As Forest Fire Advances – Worst Fire In Years
1936: Iowa Christmas Season Heat Wave Sets Temperature Records – 58 Degrees
>>In Just One Small U.S. City: 50 Die In Springfield, IL
I must have missed that episode. Did Homer save them?
R
But everything is worse now, dontcha know, lol – 😉
The authors state “One of the few exceptions to this clear global warming signal was found in large parts of the continental United States, particularly on the Eastern coast and up through the central states. These regions have yet to manifest obvious warming signals according to the models but it is expected they will appear in the next decade.”
Seems to me a couple of years of the circumpolar vortex WEATHER messes up their long term climate model projections. Hmm, what does that tell us about their models and analyses?
Does it mean they are dominated by weather and thus climate trends change annually or biannually with weather events?
My path of the jet stream over the Midwest has a big influence over the weather in NE Ohio, a 10-20F swing in daily max temps, I presume the jet stream’s path qualifies as chaotic. Though I believe the ocean surface temps help locate parts of the jet stream, these are tied to the decadal oscillations in ocean temps.
The cooling has been in more areas than just the east coast and central states of US
Regional trend of US Annual temperature anomalies since 1998
8 out of 9 climate regions show a cooling trend
• OHIO VALLEY -0.9 F/decade
• UPPER MIDWEST -1.5 F/decade
• NORTH EAST -0.1F/decade
• NORTHWEST -0.1 F/decade
• SOUTH -0.5 F/decade
• SOUTHEAST -0.4 F/decade
• SOUTHWEST -0.1 F/decade
• WEST +0.7 F/decade
• NORTHERN ROCKIES & PLAINS -1.0 F/decade
Models are not “evidence”. One can easily manipulate the outcome by understanding the influences. One can also get a surprising but palatable result by not understanding the influences.
Model /= data.
Global warming is always going to be difficult to pick when it happened using surface weather stations that barely cover 0.1% of the globe. With only 0.1% there is so much room to change coverage of them and find that extra warming when needed. The surface data should have warnings on them that is only covers 0.1% of the planet. We don’t know what the 99.9% is doing on the surface, but satellites are putting us in the right direction and keeping the surface more honest. Although the latter is being challenged over last couple of years especially.
But we can look at what those stations record for that 1% can’t we?
Day to Day Temperature Difference
Surface data from NCDC’s Global Summary of Days data, this is ~72 million daily readings,
from all of the stations with >360 daily samples per year.
Data source:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/gsod/
Code:
http://sourceforge.net/projects/gsod-rpts/
This is a chart of the annual average of day to day surface station change in min temp.
(Tmin day-1)-(Tmin d-0)=Daily Min Temp Anomaly= MnDiff = Difference
For charts with MxDiff it is equal = (Tmax day-1)-(Tmax d-0)=Daily Max Temp Anomaly= MxDiff
MnDiff is also the same as
(Tmax day-1) – (Tmin day-1) = Rising
(Tmax day-1) – (Tmin day-0) = Falling
It cools more at night for stations with at least 360 sample/year, than it warmed the day before.
Global Warming/ Climate Change is truly the Silly Putty of scientific theorizing, because it can be formed into any shape needed to match the available “evidence”.
And then reshaped when new evidence emerges.
Truly, there is nothing that could ever falsify this whole idea, when the sort of sophistry, as demonstrated by the logic of these posers, is used.
And what the heck is “model evidence” anyway? I am pretty sure there is no such thing, except in warmista delusions.
Exactly. I think it’s why they switched from climate change being some amorphous future event to “it’s real; it’s happening now” –
“…we were predicting things that might happen but it’s taken so long to take action, those predictions are already here…” – Gina McCarthy
http://bigthink.com/videos/communicating-climate-change
And since we will always have more droughts, floods, tornadoes, wildfires, hurricanes, etc., they will never run out of events to “prove” CAGW.
What happened to “Polar Amplification” where all this warming was supposed to be concentrated around the poles, not the equator?
That was last week. This week it’s Giant ‘Skeeters.
“Remarkably our research shows that you could already see clear signs of global warming in the tropics by the 1960s but in parts of Australia, South East Asia and Africa it was visible as early as the 1940s.””
The authors only looked at minor pockets of local warming in the Southern Hemisphere and falsely claim this to be evidence of global warming when the planet was cooling from 1940-1980. Here is what really was happening all over Northern Hemisphere..
• Arctic temperatures peak in 1938 and 1943 and start to cool after 1944
• Cooler temperatures start in western North America after about 1935/1940
• PDO fluctuates near zero 1937-1939, but positive 1940-1941 due to an El Nino and finally goes mostly negative in 1944
• North Pacific stays warm1940-1960 while PDO is in a negative pattern ( or cool mode)
• Cooler temperatures in Eastern North America after 1945/ 1950
• Eastern Canada starts to cool after 1950 ( almost 10 years after western Canada)
• AO goes mostly negative 1950
• Europe and Russia starts to cool by 1950 (except a brief cold period 1939/1942)
• Mexico temperatures start to decline after 1950
• AMO goes negative 1965-1995
• Cold temperatures trough in the 1970,s
• No net warming( A PAUSE) between 1940’s and 1980’s
Am not so quick to write off this claim.
Because if its true, then does it not suggest the cause of the recent warming is natural and not man made.!
Because they make the claim that this warming started to show itself as early as the 1940’s. Now if that is true then surely that would suggest that the cause of this warming had already been set in place for a good number of years before the 1940’s. Because otherwise how could it had a effect as early as the 1940’s ?.
lf that is the case then is that not to early for man made increases in CO2 to be the cause of this warming?.
Warming was first shown since the 1850’s after the LIA using the oldest world data record the CET. (Central England Temperature) Global temperatures did warm between the 1920’s and 1940’s, but there are also earlier periods of warming observed by early weather stations in local regions.
The trend with global temperatures and CET is hardly different for later periods so no reason to suggest it would be any different back then. This is especially due to the North Atlantic Ocean region has the largest influence on world temperatures during the last 2 million years at least.
Yes by claiming the warming goes back to at least the 40’s.
Goes against their claim that the recent warming was ever man made in the first place.
Why is this stupidity on this web-site? What a bunch of nonsense.
” We expect the first heavy precipitation events with a clear global warming signal will appear during winters in Russia, Canada and northern Europe over the next 10-30 years,” said co-author Dr Ed Hawkins from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, UK.”
These guys can ” expect ” warming signals for Northern Hemisphere ” all they want but it is quite unlikely going to happen in the next 10-30 years . Global annual land temperatures are flat since 2005 . North America land ANNUAL temperature anomalies have declining trend since 1997 . Winter temperature anomalies are declining for land areas for the globe , the Northern Hemisphere, North America and ASIA , Spring and Fall temperature anomalies are declining in North America . Yes there can be isolated pockets of regional warming , There always is some but this is not continent wide nor global.
This is the same questionable type of forecasts that IPCC has been forecasting for 2 decades now and none of it has come to pass. Their predictions appear to be mostly exaggerations 2-3 times higher than the observable
One thing I’ve learned from WUWT: the people who design computer models aren’t quite as enamoured with their output as the people who USE the models are.
Just another entry in the very, very large “confirmation bias” pile.
Their claim that climate change first shows up on a regional level is not so wide of the mark.
As there is strong evidence that the last ice age started off as regional climate change in North America that lead to a chain of events which help to spread the ice sheets over much of the northern Atlantic area of the NH. The fact that this warming has yet to show up in North America may point out that this recent warming is not a long term trend.
“both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas.”
Hasn’t the planet experienced hot and cold extremes across many areas since it came into existence? It’s called ‘weather’ and falls within the scope of natural, regional variability.
They keep telling us the science is settled, that CO2 causes the planet to warm. But that doesn’t explain what causes ‘cold extremes’. What is the mechanism whereby CO2 can cause that?
As I said elsewhere, Al Gore and Bill Nye reversed CO2’s polarity. They just forgot how they did it. Otherwise there would be no “pause”.
As at 0100UTC today, the recorded extremes of hot and cold are +46.5C in Kuwait and -80.5C in Antarctica – I guess that’s fairly extreme…
UAH shows Australia to be cooling, at the rate of -0.2ºC/decade since 2002
What does BOM show.. don’t know.. don’t care.. I know it will be a total fudge on data manipulated crap.