We are all familiar with the most famous of all snow predictions, which sets the gold standard for failure, that of Dr. David Viner:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
From the article:
Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
It didn’t take long for him to be disproven:
From January 8, 2010 All of Britain covered by snow
Here is another one:
Mojib Latif, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1 April 2000
Yes, Germany is not immune either:
Berlin Sets 100-Year March Snow Record…
Weather:
https://www.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/10153558888504604/
Like Joe B says: “Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got.”
Here are the data on Northern Hemisphere snow cover. The long-term trends are definitely negative:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=2
Been a positive trend in snow cover since 2000.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Northern-Hemisphere-snow-cover-annual.gif
Show positive trend in snow cover for the northern hemisphere.
Ditto too.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/dec-feb_snow_ext.png
DA: No they are not. I used your link , found the same data for Northern hemisphere that Matt G has illustrated for us . No long term negative trend.
How can someone who is a senior journalist for Scientific American simply say that and expect to get away with it?
Matt, I’m going to put the same warning to you as I did to David, I would not consider that trend positive. It is dominated by a few outliers (75, 81 and the past three years). In the long term, it appears to be constant with huge internal variation.
benofhouston August 7, 2015 at 5:24 am
Disagree to some extent, in scientific terms it is positive trend and agree a cycle is shown in the data.
“It is dominated by a few outliers (75, 81 and the past three years).”
How can the recent period be an outlier when x occurs similar in 3 out of 4 years?, it is part of a new trend in the cycle.
In ten years half of them have been above 47 million (M-).sq.km, these are higher than all except one year in the past.
The graph represents colder winters during the 1960’s and 1970’s, milder winters during 1980’s and 1990’s and recently period of colder winters. It is a fairly obvious cycle and if one data point was an particular outiier, then it would be only in 1978 (over 1.5 M-.sq.km) and 1975 (under 2.0 M-sq.km) These two almost cancel each other out and 1975 is not much different to other low years, especially 1989.
Take 1975, 1978, and 1981 out of the data and still shows similar trend.
After a small adjustment and some cogent analysis from politicians ,bread and butter ‘scientists’ , and such scientific whizzes as Matt Lauer, you will believe you have not seen snow for a dozen years.
Speaking of politicians, I didn’t hear any reference to the fallacies of global warming and CO2 in the Republican presidential candidate debates this evening (Aug. 6).
The Department of Oops. Case Number 1.
It is mistake to think that because their science is so poor that the whole argument behind CAGW is weak.
In fact it has some strong points , it has managed to get CAGW to equal the same has climate change , which allowed to it claim any change is ‘proof ‘ while at the same time label CAGW sceptics has ‘deniers ‘ of any ‘climate change ‘ which of course they are not but this mud does stick .
It is the first part that is the point in this case , for ‘any’ increase/decreases of any weather factor is now ‘proof’ of their claims . So although it would seem clear that more snow undermines their cause , in some ways it actually supports their cause because its a ‘change ‘
This is not an argument has has at its root a scientific basis , therefore you cannot win it by arguing on that basis.
Define win; the observations and models have diverged enough for the public to take notice. We like to challenge CAGW supporters to provide proof, links to peer reviewed papers, surveys, etc. If they do those things, attempt to provide proof, they go down the rabbit hole. At that point CAGW begins to unravel and they can choose between inquiry and oppression. The public at large is becoming wise to the fact that the projections have not matched the observations over longer durations. It makes the argument easier for us to win. We can shut down blind CAGW ism by saying things like, “actually no, our planets ice is not melting at a record pace, check your facts.” And this is all possible, considering how biased much of the “science” has become, because CAGW ism likes to exaggerate the hell out of their predictions. And their methods stink. The deeper you dive the more it looks like garbage. Politically there are some nations that feel they can gain by gaming the public, but their are considerable right wing political encumbrances to get over, and those barriers get stiffer and higher as the public take sides…this used to be a one horse race, no longer
When Viner wrote those words the UK was at peak warmth, according to CET. Since then the CET shows dramatic cooling by around two thirds of a degree. The last couple of years has been a bit warmer.
But, despite a very short-lived heat wave a month ago, with the infamous Heathrow 36.8 degrees record, it’s overall been a very cool summer. In July I had the heating on several times and most of the time I’ve been wearing a sweater. As I write I have my sweater on and my feet actually feel a bit cold.
Just after the heatwave (was the record due to a 747 or an A380?) the Telegraph reported that “forecasters” were predicting a bigger heatwave for the end of July. Didn’t happen. What a surprise.
And now the Met Office is forecasting very cold UK winters due to low solar activity.
It must be great to be a climate scientist. You can spend a whole career being wrong – and yet it doesn’t actually harm your career….
“What if it got colder
And we had more ice and more snow,
And because of the cold
Food crops wouldn’t grow,
And we needed more energy
To keep us all warm
As there was no global warming,
Mother Nature wouldn’t conform?….
http://rhymeafterrhyme.net/what-if-it-got-colder/
I think part of the problem is that people live more comfortable lives with heat and air conditioning such that they avoid a true experience of extremes. When fresh out of college I had to lay in a pool of sweat in summer in Idaho (job there) trying desperately to sleep, but not anymore. As a kid our car never got warm if it was really cold in Chicago, nor did the school buses. so we start thinking things should always be nice and comfy and assume constancy since our indoor environment is constant.
Am wondering if the weather in northern Russia could set up Europe for a cold winter.
Because for at least a month now there has been persistent low pressure over northern Russia. Which has been sending cold Arctic air down across NE Europe / NW Russia. Now should this pattern last going into the winter. Then it will be sending cold Arctic air to just the right place. For it to push across Europe,should a blocking high form over northern Europe this winter. l will be watching with interest.
If children won’t know what snow is it will be the fault of the education system, not caGW.