By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
In the carefully-planned build-up to the Paris “climate” conference whose true purpose is to establish an unelected and all-powerful global “governing body” (they’re no longer brazenly calling it a “government” as they did in the failed Copenhagen draft of 2009, but one can imagine what they’re thinking), the three longest-standing terrestrial temperature records – HadCRUt4, GISS, and NCDC – have all decided to throw caution to the winds.
Even though the satellites of RSS and UAH are watching, all three of the terrestrial record-keepers have tampered with their datasets to nudge the apparent warming rate upward yet again. There have now been so many adjustments with so little justification – nearly all of them calculated to steepen the apparent rate of warming – that between a third and a fifth of the entire warming of the 20th century arises solely from the adjustments, which ought to have been in the opposite direction because, as McKitrick & Michaels showed in a still-unchallenged 2007 paper, the overland warming in the datasets over recent decades is twice what actually occurred.
The three terrestrial datasets are no longer credible. The satellites now provide the only halfway reliable global temperature record. And it shows no global warming for 18 years 5 months (UAH) and 18 years 6 months (RSS), even though approximately one-third of all anthropogenic forcings since 1750 have occurred since 1997.
For the record, though, here is the six-monthly roundup of what the three terrestrial and two satellite datasets show. Make what you can of them: but I, for one, will place no further reliance on any of the three terrestrial datasets, which have been altered beyond all usefulness, in the wrong direction, and in a manner that is not easy to justify.
For instance, a month or two back Tom Karl of NCDC notoriously and arbitrarily increased the ARGO bathythermograph temperatures, even though ARGO happens to be the least bad ocean measuring system we have. The satellites show no warming of the lower troposphere over the past 11 years; the ARGO bathythermographs show no warming of the surface layers of the ocean over the same period; yet Mr Karl has capriciously decreed that the surface must have warmed after all.
Once science was done by measurement: now it is undone by fiat. Let us hope that history, looking back in bafflement on the era when the likes of Mr Karl were allowed to ru(i)n major once-scientific institutions, will judge him every bit as unkindly as he deserves.
For this and other reasons, I no longer propose to average the terrestrial with the satellite records. The terrestrial temperature records are now mere fiction.
Here is a table showing how far the terrestrial records now differ from the satellite records. Three periods are shown, all running to June 2015. The first period, from January 1979, runs from the first month common to all five datasets. The second period, from January 1990, runs from the year of IPCC’s First Assessment Report, since when the positive and negative phases of the PDO have approximately canceled one another out, giving quite a fair indication of the true long-run warming trend. The third period, from January 1997, runs from the month in which the Great Pause of 18 years 6 months began.
|Warming rates (K century–1 equivalent)|
|To Jun 2015||HadCRUT4||GISS||NCDC||RSS||UAH|
|From 1979||+1.59 +1.60 +1.60||+1.60||+1.50||+1.21||+1.13|
|From 1990||+1.47 +1.49 +1.50||+1.67||+1.56||+1.07||+ 0.96|
|From 1997||+0.77 +0.79 +0.82||+1.24||+1.13||–0.03||+0.04|
For HadCRUT4 the old and new values to May 2015 are shown in italics alongside the new value to June 2015. Satellite datasets are in bold.
From 1979 to the present, the difference between the means of the terrestrial and satellite datasets is 0.40 K century–1; from 1990 to the present, the difference is 0.56 K century–1; from 1997 to the present, the difference has risen to a hefty 1.06 K century–1. It is pardonable to deduce from this that the chief purpose of the terrestrial tampering has been to wipe out the embarrassing Pause.
The graphs are below. Frankly, even after the tampering, the warming rate is nothing like what it should have been if any of the IPCC’s predictions had been true. My guess is that once they’ve got their world government in Paris they’ll stop tampering leave the temperature records alone.
In fact, I expect that we’ll hear a great deal less about climate change once the world government is safely installed. As the divergence between prediction and reality continues to widen, the new dictators will not want anyone to be reminded of the great lie by which they took supreme and – for the first time – global power.
January 1979 to June 2015
January 1990 to June 2015
January 1997 to June 2015
HadCRUT4: comparison of the old and new versions