Claim: low solar activity will melt Greenland's ice faster

From the AGU: Sun’s activity controls Greenland temperatures

Greenland-Heat-Map[1]
A new study found that Greenland temperatures fell from the 1970s through the early 1990s while temperatures across much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere rose. This map shows the average difference in surface temperatures between 1920-1940 and 1975-1995. Grey areas indicate regions where not enough data was available to calculate long-term temperature changes. Credit: Takuro Kobashi
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The sun’s activity could be affecting a key ocean circulation mechanism that plays an important role in regulating Greenland’s climate, according to a new study. The phenomenon could be partially responsible for cool temperatures the island experienced in the late 20th century and potentially lead to increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet in the coming decades, the new research suggests.

Scientists have sought to understand why Greenland cooled during the 1970s through the early 1990s while most of the Northern Hemisphere experienced rising temperatures as a result of greenhouse warming.

The new study suggests high solar activity starting in the 1950s and continuing through the 1980s played a role in slowing down ocean circulation between the South Atlantic and the North Atlantic oceans. Combined with an influx of fresh water from melting glaciers, this slow-down halted warm water and air from reaching Greenland and cooled the island while temperatures rose across the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, according to the new study accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

The new research also suggests weak solar activity, like the sun is currently experiencing, could slowly fire up the ocean circulation mechanism, increasing the amount of warm water and air flowing to Greenland.

Starting around 2025, temperatures in Greenland could increase more than anticipated and the island’s ice sheet could melt faster than projected, according to Takuro Kobashi, a climate scientist with the Department of Climate and Environmental Physics at the University of Bern in Switzerland and lead author of the new study.

This unexpected ice loss would compound projected sea-level rise expected to occur as a result of climate change, Kobashi said. The melting Greenland ice sheet accounted for one-third of the 3.2 millimeters (0.13 inches) rise in global sea level every year from 1992 to 2011.

“We need to really consider how solar activity will change in the future,” said Kobashi. “If solar activity becomes really low, as scientists expect, the Greenland ice sheet will melt faster than we expected from the climate model with just greenhouse gas [warming].”

The new study compared past solar activity with historical temperature records to figure out if the cooling Greenland experienced during the late 20th century was part of a long-term pattern.

The authors of a new paper placed ice from subsections of Greenland ice cores in glass flasks. Under a vacuum, the ice melted, releasing the air trapped within the ice. The scientists used the trapped air to calculate the island's temperatures for the past 2,100 years and compare them to vacillations in solar activity. <br />  <em>Credit: Takuro Kobashi</em>

The team used ice cores drilled from the Greenland ice sheet to reconstruct snow temperatures for the past 2,100 years. A relatively new technique, which measures argon and nitrogen gases trapped in the ice, allowed the scientists to measure small changes in temperature at 10- to 20-year increments.

The ice cores showed that for the past 2,000 years changes in Greenland temperatures have generally followed any temperature shifts occurring in the Northern Hemisphere. The new research found that the change in Greenland temperatures vacillated up and down around the average change in Northern Hemisphere temperatures over time. The vacillations coincided with changes in the sun’s energy output that occurred over multiple decades, according to the new study.

When the sun’s energy output increased, there was a bigger drop in Greenland’s temperature compared to the change in average temperature across the Northern Hemisphere. When the sun’s energy output decreased, there was a larger increase in Greenland’s temperature compared to the change in average temperature that occurred across the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate models showed that changes in solar activity could prompt shifts in ocean and air circulation in the North Atlantic that affect Greenland’s climate, according to the new study.

Shifting circulation patterns

Water circulation in the Atlantic follows a steady pattern of movement, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Warm water flows from the South Atlantic toward the North Atlantic, transferring heat toward Greenland. As the water cools, it sinks to the ocean floor and travels south toward the tropics, completing the circular pattern.

During a period of high solar activity, more energy from the sun reaches Earth and is transferred to tropical waters. When this warmer-than-usual water reaches the North Atlantic, it is not dense enough to sink. With nowhere to go, the water causes a traffic jam and the water circulation pattern slows down.

Changes in solar activity can also alter the atmospheric circulation pattern over the Atlantic, which in turn affects ocean circulation, but how this process works is still unknown, said Kobashi.

In the late 20th century, there also was a compounding problem. Large amounts of freshwater gushed into the North Atlantic as climate change caused increased melting of glaciers, icebergs, and the Greenland ice sheet. Freshwater, being more buoyant than salt water, entered the intersection where cool water drops to the ocean floor and travels south to the tropics. Climate models showed that the water in the intersection became less salty and less likely to sink. Models also showed that additional freshwater came from an increase in rainfall, according to the new study.

The traffic jam worsened and the water circulation pattern that transfers heat from the South Atlantic to the North Atlantic slowed. This slow-down caused the air above Greenland to cool and temperatures there to drop, according to the new study.

Because the oceans take a long time to heat up or cool down, the temperature changes in Greenland lagged 10 to 40 years behind the high solar activity, showing up from the 1970s through the early 1990s, according to the new study.

The new study suggests low solar activity could have the opposite effect and lead to warmer temperatures in Greenland in another decade. When there is less solar energy reaching the Earth, water reaching Greenland easily sinks and returns to the tropics along the ocean floor. The water circulation pattern speeds up, quickly funneling heat toward Greenland and warming the island.

Greenhouse gases versus solar activity

The new study makes a good case that the solar maximum in the 1950s through the 1980s may have played a role in the cooling Greenland saw in the late 20th century, said Michael Mann, a climate  scientist with the Department of Meteorology at Penn State University in University Park, Pennsylvania, who was not involved in the new study.

Another recent study by Mann and his colleagues proposed that trapped greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning caused warming across the Northern Hemisphere and triggered an increase in ice melt. This led to the slowdown in ocean circulation and a cooler Greenland.

Both studies suggest buoyant meltwater from melting glaciers would have interrupted the sinking of the AMOC and its return to the tropics along the bottom of the ocean. But the new research suggests solar activity is the main driver behind the changes to the ocean circulation pattern.

“I’m open-minded that the real answer is more complicated, and it may be a combination of the two hypotheses,” said Mann. “This article paves the way for a more in-depth look at what is going on. The challenge now will be teasing apart the two effects and trying to assess the relative importance of both of them.”

Kobashi contends that solar activity explains the change in ocean circulation and Greenland warming since 1995, which he says cannot be explained by increasing greenhouse gases alone.

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Scarface
July 16, 2015 11:30 am

Hahahahaha. Thanks for the laugh. I needed that.

TomRude
July 16, 2015 11:35 am

“The new research also suggests weak solar activity, like the sun is currently experiencing, could slowly fire up the ocean circulation mechanism, increasing the amount of warm water and air flowing to Greenland.”
New? renewed warm air advections along eastern Greenland is a consequence of cooler denser polar air masses expulsion -see Leroux-, hardly New…

July 16, 2015 11:38 am

Let me try to approach it in this manner. The shortfall when it comes to climate is many are unable to intergrade all the various factors that are involved when it comes to the climate that will not result in a given item (the sun) changing in a given way resulting in an x climate outcome. Somehow this opinion prevails that an x change in solar variability has to immediately translate to an x change climatic response. In addition lag times need to be incorporated into the equation of the climate.
This article being a prime example of this which is trying to interject a change in solar variability all of a sudden in the late 20th century all of a sudden had a dramatic effect on Greenland temperatures due to oceanic circulation pattern changes when previous periods of time show no such result or an opposite result.
In addition one would think if Greenland cooled due to a slower oceanic circulation that Europe would have not warmed due to this same slower oceanic circulation which it did in the late 20th century.
How do they reconcile that fact!
More BS from the climate science community which is nothing new.

Alec aka Daffy Duck
July 16, 2015 11:52 am

Layman here; this rings some bells of stuff I’ve read:
1. AO positive keeps Greenland cooler
2. El Chinon in the 1980s and pinatubo in the 1990s
3. “Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: Effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion” [AO positive]
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JD002090/full

July 16, 2015 11:58 am

Up is down. Black is white. Hot is Cold. No, Really.
No… really. Really… I’m not kidding.
Okay, I’m kidding.

July 16, 2015 12:00 pm

I am presenting a prolonged deep solar minimum possible climate mechanism which suggest the opposite of what they are trying to convey. This makes much more sense then their theory.
I further suggest prolonged solar minimums if deep enough in magnitude and long enough in duration of time will not give the same climate result that typical solar minimums give when part of the 11 year rhythmic solar cycle which is what has taken place since the Dalton Solar Minimum ended around 1830.
Only maybe since post 2005 is the sun going to enter another type of a prolonged severe solar minimum period which will effect the climate in a completely different way then what the typical solar minimum periods do when the sun is in a more or less 11 year rhythmic sunspot cycle.
Perhaps a severe prolonged solar minimum period could translate to what is suggested below.
One last thought before I get to that is, (which these fools who wrote this article do not understand) is Climatic Thresholds are always present and only slight differences in the degree of magnitude change /duration of time in the item or items causing the climate forcing could make the difference between the climatic threshold being reached or not reached ,which in turn would make all the difference in the world of the x climate out come.
One solar climate mechanism/connection theory which has much merit in my opinion, is as follows:
A BRIEF OVERVIEW. At times of low solar irradiance the amounts of sea ice in the Nordic Sea increase, this ice is then driven south due to the atmospheric circulation (also due to weak solar conditions) creating a more northerly air flow in this area.(-NAO) This sea ice then melts in the Sub Polar Atlantic, releasing fresh water into the sub- polar Atlantic waters, which in turn impedes the formation of NADW, which slows down the thermohaline circulation causing warm air not to be brought up from the lower latitudes as far north as previous while in lessening amounts.
This perhaps can be one of the contributing solar/climate connection factors which brought about previous abrupt N.H. cool downs during the past.
This makes much sense to me.
NAO= NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
NADW= NORTH ATLANTIC DEEP WATER
To elaborate on the above, when the sun enters a prolonged solar minimum condition an overall reduction takes place in solar spectral irradiance, namely in UV light (wavelengths less then 400 nm). The shorter the wavelength, the MUCH greater the reduction.
UV light reduction likely will cause ocean heat content and ocean surface temperatures to drop, due to the fact that UV light in the range of 280 nm-400nm penetrates the ocean surface to depths of 50-100 meters. A reduction in UV (ultra violet) light then should have a profound effect on the amount of energy entering the ocean surface waters from the sun extending down to 50-100 meters in depth, resulting in cooler ocean temperatures.
This ties into what was said in the above in that if ocean waters in high latitudes such as the Nordic Sea, were to be subject to cooling the result would be much more sea ice which could impede the strength of the thermohaline circulation promoting substantial N.H. cooling.
Adding to this theory is fairly strong evidence that a decrease in UV light will result in a more meridional atmospheric circulation (which should cause more clouds, precipitation and snow cover for the N.H.0), due to changes in ozone distribution in a vertical/horizontal sense which would cause the temperature contrast between the polar areas of the stratosphere and lower latitude areas of the stratosphere to lesson, during prolonged solar minimum periods. Ultra Violet light being likely the most significant solar factor affecting ozone concentrations ,although not the only solar factor.
This could then set up a more -NAO, (high pressure over Greenland) which would promote a more Northerly flow of air over the Nordic Sea, bringing the sea ice there further South.

Pamela Gray
Reply to  Salvatore Del Prete
July 16, 2015 12:50 pm

You forgot to add (or subtract?) the effects of turning on the water in the kitchen sink.

DHR
July 16, 2015 12:03 pm

Is there any salinity data to back up their claim of fresh water being released from Greenland? And isn’t the prevailing wind over Greenland from the west while the ocean circulation pattern is confined to the east side?

Owen in GA
Reply to  DHR
July 17, 2015 6:10 am

Sure it is right there in the model output next to the dial they turned that says “add fresh water”…(/sarc)

u.k.(us)
July 16, 2015 12:16 pm

“I’m open-minded that the real answer is more complicated, and it may be a combination of the two hypotheses,” said Mann. “This article paves the way for a more in-depth look at what is going on. The challenge now will be teasing apart the two effects and trying to assess the relative importance of both of them.”
==============
Is that the same as saying you’ve put the transmission into reverse and have your foot to the floor ?

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  u.k.(us)
July 17, 2015 11:12 am

What Mann is saying is quite clear: “I disagree with the paper and the hypothesis, but as they are supporting the CAGW meme I have to chat it up.” The ‘two hypotheses’ are contradictory: one says cold melts the ice and the other says warmth melts the ice. They are mutually exclusive explanations. His ‘supporting comments’ contradict the authors’ hypothesis. This is ‘climastrology’ at its best. Everything conspires to support the global warming meme, except when it doesn’t, in which case it does. Case closed.

Louis Hunt
July 16, 2015 12:20 pm

First they say, “When this warmer-than-usual water reaches the North Atlantic, it is not dense enough to sink.” This happens during a period of high solar activity. But then they say:
“When there is less solar energy reaching the Earth, water reaching Greenland easily sinks and returns to the tropics along the ocean floor. The water circulation pattern speeds up, quickly funneling heat toward Greenland and warming the island.”
So, my question is, if periods of low solar activity quickly funnels “heat” toward Greenland, why is it that the water is also dense enough to sink easily? Wouldn’t the water have to be cool by the time it reaches Greenland for it to quickly sink? If the water that reaches Greenland during low solar activity is cooler and sinks easier, why does it warm Greenland more than the “warmer-than-usual” water that reached Greenland during high solar activity and is too dense to sink? It would seem to me that warmer waters that linger until cool enough to sink would warm the atmosphere around Greenland more than cooler waters that sink quickly. What am I missing?

D.J. Hawkins
Reply to  Louis Hunt
July 16, 2015 2:43 pm

Their explanation is that during the low-activity period, the warm water that gets to Greenland is cooler than during the high-activity period. Since it is already cooler when it gets there, it sinks more easily, allowing the water behind it to keep coming up. During high-activity periods the warm water doesn’t sink and “pools” further south of Greenland, aided by the surface layer of colder but less dense fresh water riding the surface; kind of like a jammed conveyor. This lack of warm water in the immediate vicinity of Greenland allows the cold Arctic air to dominate the island. That’s what they’re saying, not what I’m saying.

Louis Hunt
Reply to  D.J. Hawkins
July 16, 2015 3:37 pm

Ok, but why is there a lack of warm water near Greenland if the water that arrives doesn’t sink because it is too warm? That seems like a contradiction. As soon as the water cools sufficiently, it will sink, right? And that will make room for more warm water to take it’s place. So what I still don’t understand is why warmer water moving slower doesn’t release as much heat as cooler water moving faster.

Owen in GA
Reply to  D.J. Hawkins
July 17, 2015 6:14 am

I thought that water push under the arctic ice and melts the north pole…how can it then not go by Greenland? Easy: because the model they wrote said so, so it must be true (man, articles like this bring out my /sarc tag)

1sky1
Reply to  Louis Hunt
July 16, 2015 3:22 pm

You’re not missing anything. Their whole premise is that temperature inversions, which are virtually never observed in the oceans, are commonly created.

Louis Hunt
July 16, 2015 12:24 pm

I also don’t understand why there would be more fresh water from melting glaciers when Greenland is cooler than when it is warmer. Any explanation for that?

Reply to  Louis Hunt
July 16, 2015 12:44 pm

The explanation is the article is clueless.

Dawtgtomis
July 16, 2015 1:27 pm

Save this quote by Kobashi:
“If solar activity becomes really low, as scientists expect, the Greenland ice sheet will melt faster than we expected from the climate model with just greenhouse gas [warming].”
It could be very humorous to look back on towards the end of SC25.

Felflames
July 16, 2015 3:24 pm

I have plans to conduct a survey of all the leading climate scientists.
Buried in there wil be the question “do you know someone named Jack”
I then plan to publish the results with the title “Most climate scientist don’t know Jack.”

Reply to  Felflames
July 16, 2015 4:09 pm

CORRECT YOU ARE!!

Reply to  Felflames
July 16, 2015 6:02 pm

+1000 🙂

Reply to  Felflames
July 17, 2015 9:45 am

What you really mean is “97 percent of climate scientists…..”

emsnews
July 16, 2015 3:35 pm

So, that is why during the Maunder Minimum, the Vikings died off in Greenland: it was TOO WARM! HAHAHA.

July 16, 2015 3:40 pm

If this doesn’t convince you that what we are looking at is nothing more than a giant scam nothing will. Mind you, you’ve swallowed that the colder atmosphere can heat a warmer surface already, so who knows how people will react? Ocean heat is hiding in the colder waters below the surface. Now a colder sun will make ice melt faster. Truly the stupidity virus is spreading

Reply to  wickedwenchfan
July 16, 2015 6:11 pm

I think every time one of these pseudoscientists opens his/her mouth or publishes a paper they lose people. It might not look it on the surface, but people everywhere are waking up to what’s really going on. They know it too, these charlatans, that’s what has them panicking.

July 16, 2015 4:09 pm

The mainstream climate community does not know what they are talking about. They are in a word clueless.

John M. Ware
July 16, 2015 5:30 pm

The air temperature over the vast majority of Greenland is–and stays–so far below freezing that temps would have to rise hugely in order for any significant melting to occur. Precise figures are doubtless available. As for the article, it is nonsense, as many of you have stated. What the sun does or doesn’t do will surely affect the earth, including Greenland; but the few tenths of a degree shown in the graphs (or postulated in some of the articles I’ve seen) won’t melt anything. When the warming is enough to take the temperature of sizeable portions of Greenland above freezing for whole seasons, then I’ll pay attention. Not now.

July 16, 2015 5:37 pm

The article may help to explain why the Vikings settled Greenland from around 800 to around 1200 AD and remained there during the Oort minimum, which occurred in the 11th Century and before the Medieval Maximum. I have also wondered what part volcanic activity along the Gakkel ridge has on water temperatures around Greenland and hence its climate. This would be particularly relevant during deep solar minimums when volcanic activity increases due to the extra muons produced by the increased galactic cosmic rays getting through to the solar system when the average solar magnetic field strength is lower.

July 16, 2015 5:54 pm

Quoting them out of context will makes for a more accurate & honest paper:
“But the new research suggests solar activity is the main driver behind the changes ….”

Steve (from the welfare state of Kentucky)
July 16, 2015 6:04 pm

WOW, do I plan for heat or cold?, all the uncertainty is making my head spin…….One thing for certain, USA is broke and we are the next Greece, CO2 will drop when we implode to no manufacturing.

ulriclyons
July 16, 2015 7:41 pm

“The ice cores showed that for the past 2,000 years changes in Greenland temperatures have generally followed any temperature shifts occurring in the Northern Hemisphere.”
Not so. In the 8th century Greenland was particularly cold, while Europe was as warm or warmer than recent decades. The opposite happened around 1200 BC, which is erroneously called the Minoan Warming, that was a very cold-dry period for the mid latitudes that finished the Minoans off with most Mediterranean cultures as well as the European Neolithic culture.
“When the sun’s energy output increased, there was a bigger drop in Greenland’s temperature compared to the change in average temperature across the Northern Hemisphere.”
Which contradicts this sneaky earlier piece:
“Scientists have sought to understand why Greenland cooled during the 1970s through the early 1990s while most of the Northern Hemisphere experienced rising temperatures [as a result of greenhouse warming].”
So they giving it that the Sun cooled the Arctic but CO2 warmed everywhere else. That’s a big joke as increased CO2 forcing should increase positive NAO/AO, and that will cool the Arctic too just like a stronger solar signal will.
“Because the oceans take a long time to heat up or cool down, the temperature changes in Greenland lagged 10 to 40 years behind the high solar activity, showing up from the 1970s through the early 1990s, according to the new study.”
No they don’t, for example look at summer 2012, the deep negative NAO warmed Greenland and reduced a lot of sea ice. The low in the solar signal was then and not decades before, it all works at the scale of weather, the lags are weekly to seasonal. It’s then a matter of how the positives versus negatives accumulate over time. The last two summers have seen positive NAO and Arctic cooling. I made long range solar based forecasts for the weeks that would happen, and predicted a relative increase in sea ice extent on that basis.
And again they have the AMOC back to front. High solar gives positive NAO, which gives a fast AMOC. Low AMOC events occur during negative NAO episodes:
http://www.rapid.ac.uk/

ulriclyons
Reply to  ulriclyons
July 16, 2015 7:55 pm

UAH lower trop north pole Dec 1978 to Mar 1995:
http://snag.gy/mfOI7.jpg

Owen in GA
Reply to  ulriclyons
July 17, 2015 6:21 am

That graph can’t be right…GISS says that most of the warming was in the arctic, how can the 2 meter temperatures be reaching thermageddon while the troposphere is getting cooler? Clearly the “microwave brightness” model must be worse than the “smear sub-tropical station data 1000s of km over the poles” model. (so much /sarc so little real data)

Ed Zuiderwijk
July 16, 2015 8:53 pm

“Starting around 2025, temperatures in Greenland could increase more than anticipated”.
Must be the funniest line of the lot. “anticipated” by who? The modellers? Then it could be a double whammy! And all without a hint of a measurement.

Owen in GA
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
July 17, 2015 6:22 am

My previous model showed Greenland would reach absolute zero by 2025, so any real data would beat that expectation. (/sarc)

July 16, 2015 9:55 pm

“When the sun’s energy output increased, there was a bigger drop in Greenland’s temperature compared to the change in average temperature across the Northern Hemisphere. When the sun’s energy output decreased, there was a larger increase in Greenland’s temperature compared to the change in average temperature that occurred across the Northern Hemisphere.”
Ok. Now, let’s apply that analysis to the Antarctic Peninsula, the Greenland analogue in the southern hemisphere. Let me guess…opposite?

July 16, 2015 11:35 pm

I thought that the IPCC claimed that the sun could have no effect on the temperature of the earth and now some sympathetic writer is suggesting that solar activity might cool or warm the massive Greenland Ice Block!! They can’t have it bot ways.
If the sun can do what is suggested in this “new” paper, then the sun must have significant influence on global temperatures causing all types of circulation modifications which relate to the behaviour of El Nino/La Nina in kind. In all probability the sun has complete control over all of the earth’s temperature and climate.

Owen in GA
Reply to  johnnicol
July 17, 2015 6:24 am

No, the IPCC said the sun could have no impact on their ANALYSIS of climate change, since their mandate only allows for assignment of human causes. (I wish this were sarc)

William Astley
July 17, 2015 12:22 am

Helpfully our friends at NOAA, have a cottage industry going to continue to prop up the sunspot number, obvious to where the trend is going and what is going to happen next both to the sun and to the earth’s climate.
Do you think the public will notice abrupt planetary cooling?
Do you think the political opposition will pick up on irony that the planet is abruptly cooling and we have been told for the last 30 years the worry was warming which must be addressed by wasting billion of dollars on green scams that do not work… blah, blah, blah?
Oh in addition to the fact that the green scams have made almost no difference to the increase in atmospheric CO2, we find when the planet abruptly cools that atmospheric CO2 levels also abruptly drop.
The primary reason for the increase in atmospheric CO2 was the temperature increase rather anthropogenic CO2.
The solar cycle has been interrupted, it is not slowing down. What is the point of discussing this fact with someone who denies the obvious?
There was and is a physical reason for past cyclic abrupt climate change. The physical reason for past cyclic climate change and the recent high latitude warming is solar cycle modulation of planetary cloud cover. Observational evidence to support that assertion is the fact that there is now record sea ice for ever month of the year in the Antarctic.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
Record sea ice does not support the narrative of dangerous warming. It supports the narrative of unexplained (hint it is the sun) cooling.
Solar cycle 22 and solar cycle 23, sunspots were clearly visible here. As the magnetic field strength of newly formed sunspots groups gradually declined is was no longer possible to ‘see’ the sunspots groups with single frequency, therefore there was move to use a compensate that use the magnetic field spectral graph and visual to help us ‘see’ the poor disappearing sunspots.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_4096_4500.jpg
To appease an old … here is an enhanced view for those how love to manipulate the silly sunspot number past data and current data to continue to play their pointless sungate game.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_4096_HMII.jpg
http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-6596/440/1/012001/pdf/1742-6596_440_1_012001.pdf

The peculiar solar cycle 24 – where do we stand?
Solar cycle 24 has been very weak so far. It was preceded by an extremely quiet and long solar minimum. Data from the solar interior, the solar surface and the heliosphere all show that cycle 24 began from an unusual minimum and is unlike the cycles that preceded it. We begin this review of where solar cycle 24 stands today with a look at the antecedents of this cycle, and examine why the minimum preceding the cycle is considered peculiar (§ 2). We then examine in § 3 whether we missed early signs that the cycle could be unusual. § 4 describes where cycle 24 is at today.
The minimum preceding the cycle showed other unusual characteristics. For instance, the polar fields were lower than those of previous cycles. In Fig. 1 we show the polar fields as observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory. It is very clear that the fields were much lower than those at the minimum before cycle 22 and also smaller than the fields during the minimum before cycle 23. Unfortunately, the data do not cover a period much before cycle 21 maximum so we cannot compare the polar fields during the last minimum with those of even earlier minima.
Other, more recent data sets, such as the Kitt Peak and MDI magnetograms, and they too also show that the polar fields were weak during the cycle 24 minimum compared with the cycle 23 minimum (de Toma 2011; Gopalswamy et al. 2012).
The differences between the cycle 24 minimum and the previous ones were not confined to phenomena exterior to the Sun, dynamics of the solar interior showed differences too. For instance, Basu & Antia (2010) showed that the nature of the meridional flow during the cycle 24 minimum was quite different from that during cycle 23. This is significant because meridional flows are believed to play an important role in solar dynamo models (see e.g., Dikpati et al. 2010, Nandy et al. 2011, etc.).
The main difference was that the meridional flow in the immediate sub-surface layers at higher latitudes was faster during the cycle 23 minimum that during the cycle 24 minimum. The difference can be seen in Fig. 3 of Basu & Antia (2010).
Since the solar cycle is almost certainly driven by a dynamo (William: good guess, but not correct) , the differences in meridional flow between the last two minima, and between cycle 23 and the first part of cycle 24, may be important factors in creating the cycle differences, which extend into the corona and even cosmic rays (Gibson et al. 2009). Differences were also seen in the solar zonal flows (Howe et al. 2009; Antia & Basu 2010 …etc.), and it was found that the equator-ward migration of the prograde mid-latitude flow was slower during the cycle 24 minimum compared with that of cycle 23.

Berényi Péter
July 17, 2015 7:10 am

However, the future is much more difficult to predict

Yep, det er svært at spå – især om fremtiden. By the way, what else would one want to pre-dict?