Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
NOAA recently published their State of the Climate Report for May 2015. Under the heading of Global Summary Information, they note:
Note: With this report and data release, the National Centers for Environmental Information is transitioning to improved versions of its global land (GHCN-M version 3.3.0) and ocean (ERSST version 4.0.0) datasets. Please note that anomalies and ranks reflect the historical record according to these updated versions. Historical months and years may differ from what was reported in previous reports. For more, please visit the associated FAQ and supplemental information.
But of course we know the adjustments that led to the new NOAA ERSST.v4 sea surface temperature data (the biggest changes to the NOAA data took place in the ocean portion) are not supported during the global warming slowdown period by the night marine air temperature dataset (HadNMAT2 from the UKMO) that NOAA used for bias corrections. (See post here.) In other words, it appears NOAA overcooked their “improvements”. Oops!
On the NOAA Global Analysis – May 2015 webpage they state under the heading of Temperatures:
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May 2015 was the highest for May in the 136-year period of record, at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.08°C (0.14°F). This ties with February 1998 as the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months.
Somehow I don’t think that will surprise anyone.
Figure 1 is a graph of the new NOAA Pause-Busting global surface temperature data from January 1979 to May 2015.
Figure 1
HOW DOES THE PAUSE-BUSTER DATA COMPARE TO THEIR EARLIER DATA FROM NOAA?
Animation 1 compares the new and old NOAA global land+ocean surface temperature data from January 1979 to April 2015, the last month of the old data. The data tweaking had little impact on the multidecadal warming rate.
Animation 1
Animation 2 covers the period of January 2001 to April 2015. It shows that NOAA’s tweaking had a noticeable impact during the 21st Century, almost doubling the warming rate. Again, NOAA can’t justify those higher trends with the night marine air temperature data they used as a reference for the bias adjustments in their sea surface temperature data.
Animation 2
HOW DOES THE PAUSE-BUSTER DATA COMPARE TO THE OTHER GLOBAL DATASETS?
Figure 2 compares the new pause-buster data from NOAA to the global surface temperature products from GISS and UKMO and to the lower troposphere temperature data from RSS and UAH. I’ve used the new Release 6.0 data from UAH in the comparison. The anomalies of all datasets have been referenced to the WMO-preferred base years of 1981-2010.
Figure 2
There are of course differences in how each of the data suppliers handle the polar oceans. As soon as the new NOAA data are available at the KNMI Climate Explorer, I’ll present the comparison using the latitudes of 60S-60N. The new NOAA data should stand out like a sore thumb.
CLOSING
I’ll be using the new NOAA pause-buster data in the future monthly updates, starting next month. In each update from this day forward, I’ll remind everyone that the adjustments that led to the new NOAA sea surface temperature data, where the biggest changes took place, are not supported during the global warming slowdown period by the night marine air temperature dataset (HadNMAT2 from the UKMO) that NOAA used for bias corrections. And as I noted earlier, in other words, it appears NOAA overcooked their “improvements”. Hopefully, others will remind NOAA of that as well.




GEORGE NAY TOWHOWCON
All the signs point to a cold winter again 2015/2016 like the last one and this translates to a cold year 2016 in North America , particularly the first 6 months . The YEAR TO DATE FIGURE (JAN-MAY) for CONTIGUOUS US is dropping at -0.73F/ decade since 1998 . The warm ‘blob’ of surface SST off the north west coast of North America is still there and this could mean that the jet stream may again be diverted further south dragging the POLAR VORTEX over Canada and cold weather to US also . Don’t count on NOAA to advise you on this as they seem to have a fixation on global warming news only( as it appears to me at least) instead of helping the public to prepare and plan for the colder weather that may be coming in their own country.
Yes indeed Herkimer, read your thought up thread earlier today. I keep wondering how can the most of North America be trending cooler (colder) and no where else (for sake of argument) my reasoning mind tells me that cold air is running amok over the NH and the earth spinning can not be a static phenomena, there must be more cold happening than over my back yard! Anyways, I am putting up extra wood…..
Remember how damn cold it was in the 50’s and 70’s?
Bundle up folks.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/JFM_season_ao_index.shtml
“NOAA/NCEI: “Historical months and years may differ from what was reported in previous reports”
Much more succinctly: YMMV… (“your mileage may vary”, for those unfamiliar with social acronyms…)
This entire agenda driven “science” (or “seance,” to be completely forthright) reminds me of the Cold War era and a famous joke from the Soviet Union: “The future is known with certainty. It’s the past that keeps changing.”
The Soviet Union was famous for editing out photos of people close to rulers, such a Stalin, who were later found guilty of crimes in show trials, only after having been lionized earlier by rulers, such at Stalin. Anyone recall, for example, the biologist Lysenko? Who’s political privilege and avoidance of actual empirical testing set back Soviet science for more than half a century? And resulted in the deaths of millions of people through famine?
Yes, the late physician turned king of the techno-novel, Michael Crichton, noticed this same dangerous folly in the global warming crusade in the past decade. He wrote about it in “State of Fear” in 2004.
Sadly, the valuable “Appendix” entitled “Why Politicized Science is Dangerous” seems to be no longer available at the author’s website. It contains a crucial lesson from history, being repeated this year, these months, today, over global warming – exactly as Crichton feared it was.
Therefore, please allow me to quote his essay at some length. (And I invite Anthony or the mods to elevate the entire essay by Michael Crichton as a new post, here; it is called for.)
“A second example of politicized science [after eugenics] is quite different in character, but it exemplifies the hazard of government ideology controlling the work of science, and of uncritical media promoting false concepts. Trofim Denisovich Lysenko was a self-promoting peasant who, it was said, “solved the problem of fertilizing the fields without fertilizers and minerals.” In 1928 he claimed to have invented a procedure called vernalization, by which seeds were moistened and chilled to enhance the later growth of crops.
“Lysenko’s methods never faced a rigorous test, but his claim that his treated seeds passed on their characteristics to the next generation represented a revival of Lamarckian ideas at a time when the rest of the world was embracing Mendelian genetics. Josef Stalin was drawn to Lamarckian ideas, which implied a future unbounded by hereditary constraints; he also wanted improved agricultural production. Lysenko promised both, and became the darling of a Soviet media that was on the lookout for stories about clever peasants who had developed revolutionary procedures.
“Lysenko was portrayed as a genius, and he milked his celebrity for all it was worth. He was especially skillful at denouncing these opponents. He used questionnaires from farmers to prove that vernalization increased crop yields, and thus avoided any direct tests. Carried on a wave of state-sponsored enthusiasm, his rise was rapid. By 1937, he was a member of the Supreme Soviet.
“By then, Lysenko and his theories dominated Russian biology. The result was famines that killed millions, and purges that sent hundreds of dissenting Soviet scientists to the gulags or the firing squads. Lysenko was aggressive in attacking genetics, which was finally banned as “bourgeois pseudoscience” in 1948. There was never any basis for Lysenko’s ideas, yet he controlled Soviet research for thirty years. Lysenkoism ended in the 1960s, but Russian biology still has not entirely recovered from that era.
“Now we are engaged in a great new theory [like eugenics and Lysenkosim] that once again has drawn the support of politicians, scientists, and celebrities around the world. Once again, the theory is promoted by major foundations. Once again, the research is carried out at prestigious universities. Once again, legislation is passed and social programs are urged in its name. Once again, critics are few and harshly dealt with.
“Once again, the measures being urged have little basis in fact or science. Once again, groups with other agendas are hiding behind a movement that appears high-minded. Once again, claims of moral superiority are used to justify extreme actions. Once again, the fact that some people are hurt is shrugged off because an abstract cause is said to be greater than any human consequences. Once again, vague terms like sustainability and generational justice — terms that have no agreed definition — are employed in the service of a new crisis.
“I am not arguing that global warming is the same as eugenics. But the similarities are not superficial. And I do claim that open and frank discussion of the data, and of the issues, is being suppressed. Leading scientific journals have taken strong editorial positions of the side of global warming, which, I argue, they have no business doing. Under the circumstances, any scientist who has doubts understands clearly that they will be wise to mute their expression.
“One proof of this suppression is the fact that so many of the outspoken critics of global warming are retired professors. These individuals are not longer seeking grants, and no longer have to face colleagues whose grant applications and career advancement may be jeopardized by their criticisms.
“In science, the old men are usually wrong. But in politics, the old men are wise, counsel caution, and in the end are often right.
“The past history of human belief is a cautionary tale.”
SOURCE
https://www.msu.edu/course/lbs/332/bellon/R0124b.pdf
+100
Surely we need an Annual Trofim Lysenko Award for Climate Science, retroactive to 2010 (at least – maybe earlier as some “big” names could feel slighted):
2010 James Hansen
2011 Michael Mann
2012 Phil Jones
2013 Kevin “Travesty” Trenberth
2014 Naomi Oreskes
2015 I think we already have a winner !!!!!
which adds to the whole NSA CIA emotionation:
The gods did and do see us everytime / everywhere – undeleteable. Catholics always knew.
____
upon the shoulders of Odin sit the ravens Hugin and Munin, archetypes of espionage:
Meinung und Wissen: opinion and knowing.
Sometimes they start over the world, gathering peoples minds and sayings.
prototype indogermanic drone concepts.
Returned they whisper last achieved informations into Odins ears.
Odin never needed atmospheric signatures – Hans
btw – Odin’s now 2000 lightyears ahead / beyond us.
full stop. Hans.
M Simon on June 19, 2015
at 11:02 am
Well of course the science is settled. It is the data that is unsettled.
____
so the AGW climate modelling is to be done 2 step:
1st: halfautomated mancraft data preprocessing /up;
followed by
2nd: full speed algorithmic modelled warmth acceleration.
advanced technics in the means of decarbonizating the planet backwards pasture times – low technics, shaman medicin and juvenile live ends.
I just adjusted my picks for a Power Ball lottery drawing two months ago (very slightly and only one or two numbers up and down, resulting in a net zero adjustment, i.e. no adjustment at all – totally mathematically defensible) And guess what! I won $200,000,000 (hey… where is my money…? hello Power Ball people…? hello?….)
So the pause in Arctic Ice melt will be similarly disappeared when?
https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/5124/arctic-ice-melt-could-pause-near-future-then-resume-again
By the way, we are creeping up on the 10 year limit noted in the link, if not already there. That limit was set by the models, indicating that a pause in ice decrease should change back to its continued melting state after 10 years. I think betting against this limit will be a pretty good bet. Unless, of course, it is disappeared. Betting that it will be disappeared is also a pretty good bet.
Lying about temperature anomalies is one thing, but lying about Arctic ice extent could lead to jail time for manslaughter if a ship were to sink because of it.
I actually think a group of researchers have been selected to pour over the satellite data regarding the fuzzy ice edge issue and have been given marching orders to desperately, quickly, and with due emergency come up with a “correction for known satellite biases” in the historical data set.
Don’t suppose another group is busy looking at the AO for a “reconstruction”?
The models indicate that anthropogenic warming will force the AO to have a slightly positive trend. “Based on computer-model results and physical reasoning, scientists have expected the global increase in greenhouse gases to foster a slightly positive AO trend over the coming century.”
https://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/weather-maker-glossary
But the trend has been negative since 1990.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/JFM_season_ao_index.shtml
It’s almost as if, since recalcitrant humans refuse to be deprogrammed of anthropogenic global warming skepticism, AGW scientists are now going after recalcitrant data for deprogramming.
…and Josh so needs to cartoon this.
Do they get bonuses and travel perks for this contribution to over-reach policy fraud? I think it violates the RICO Act.