New paper faults World Health Organisation’s wilful exaggeration
A new briefing paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation examines the World Health Organisation’s recent report on climate change and finds that its estimates of future mortality from global warming are grossly exaggerated.
The WHO report predicted that climate change would bring about 250,000 extra deaths annually between 2030 and 2050, but relied upon absurd assumptions to reach this conclusion. For example, the report assumes that the people affected by climate change will forgo commonsense steps to protect themselves, including several that are already in the works in some developing countries.
Briefing paper author Dr Indur Goklany said:
“The idea that people would not, for example, react to higher sea levels by building higher sea defences or even moving away from the coast is preposterous, so for the WHO to suggest such a high death toll from climate change completely misleads the public.”
And as Dr Goklany goes on to explain, the WHO’s results use climate model results that apparently overstate the warming trend three-fold compared to observations despite using 27% less greenhouse gas forcing.
The WHO also assumes that higher carbon dioxide levels will have no beneficial effects on crop yields, despite scientific studies having confirmed that this is precisely what will happen in a wide range of crop species.
“Because of its willful exaggerations,” says Goklany, “the WHO study risks scaring people into taking ill-considered costly actions to limit greenhouse gases rather than focusing on higher priority global health issues such as hunger, malaria and diarrhoeal diseases, which can be addressed at a fraction of the cost”.
Dr Indur Goklany is an independent scholar and author. He was a member of the U.S. delegation that established the IPCC and helped develop its First Assessment Report. He subsequently served as an IPCC reviewer.
GWPF TV: The WHO exaggerates future global warming mortality
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Who is the author of the WHO report. Names please.
He’s on first
LOL. I was thinking it must be Peter Townshend.
I can say this; “We Won’t Get Fooled Again”
IIRC, WHO’s name is in unpronouncible Gallifreyan, but there are clues at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Name_of_the_Doctor
Who’s on First? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTcRRaXV-fg
Eamon
Who’s on First? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTcRRaXV-fg
Eamon.
Here is the full report with all authors.
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/134014/1/9789241507691_eng.pdf?ua=1
The idea that climate change will do anything about malaria is absurd. WHO has done nothing to eliminate malaria in Africa.
The sad part is, all it takes is DDT, which has been cleared of all it’s ‘Silent Spring’ allegations [http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2006/pr50/en/], good sanitation and land/water management skills.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2006/pr50/en/
Dawtgtomis stated, “The sad part is, all it takes is DDT, which has been cleared of all it’s Silent Spring allegations”
Hmmm…. it’s been officially cleared by the WHO! That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The link you gave states no references in support…it’s a one sentence dismissal of all prior caveats. They could be oscillating between the frying pan and the fire. Ultimately any pesticide needs to have a shortish half life metabolically and not induce resistance among target species. DDT does not do either. The fact that it is not an established mutagen is rather cold comfort. The issues raised for DDT in Carson’s Silent Spring have not yet been fully resolved, IMHO, despite what WHO (and others with an agenda) have to say about it.
To sirra
The Silent Spring is just as good as the IPCC report.
Millions have died of malaria, particularly children under five. Horrible death.
How many in North America?
There was very poor practice about DDT use in North America but not a single human death due to it and no more malaria.
DDT has been reintroduced in Africa. Finally. They get it from……China. WHO has not been a friend of Africans.
Here sirra, read the fact sheet and weigh the risk/benefit ratio when it’s used responsibly for yourself.
http://npic.orst.edu/factsheets/ddttech.pdf
I bet Watts up with that publishes those Bill Whittle Firewall videos…
[no idea what those are, so no – mod]
That is why you will stay forever ignorant. You are too lazy to search this site, to support your logical fallacy of guilt by (non-existant) association.
Has Dr. Goklany ever been to coastal Bangladesh? He should go there and talk to folks.
Barry, Have you ever been to coastal Bangladesh?
They only have flooding problems when there are cyclones and in the last big cyclone (Sidr) damage and loss of life was less than one tenth of the similar sized cyclone that struck Myanmar a couple of years later.
Why?
Development – Bangladesh has developed cyclone defenses and has an infrastructure which can respond to such natural events. It is not perfect and many people still died (much more than in the US when hurricanes make landfall), but every time the damage is less and less of a disaster.
Even if sea level increases, why would the people of Bangladesh stop developing to further reduce damage from cyclones? One reason only – if they can’t afford to because energy prices mean that they don’t have the resources.
Coastal defences, like New Orleans, right? Please provide some references to support your claim. Here’s an interesting take, IMHO:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229752.700-bangladeshs-sea-walls-may-make-floods-worse.html#.VH0jnIsVhpw
Barry, sorry for the slow reply – I only get here once a day.
Cyclone sidr in 2007 was responsible for 3,400 deaths, with 1000 listed as missing in April 2008. Let’s say 5,000. Cyclone Nargis which struck Myanmar further south was listed as responsible for “tens of thousands of deaths”. Tidal surge was similar – the two references below use different scales, but 5 meters and 12 feet are close enough in my book.
http://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/cyclone-sidr-bangladesh-damage-loss-and-needs-assessment-disaster-recovery-and
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2700587/
The area affected in Bangladesh could hardly been described as unpopulated with 1 million households seriously affected. The difference was the level of preparedness which the Bangladesh governments had been able to establish over the past 20 years. The Bhola cyclone in 1970 caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and the lack of preparedness had – in many people’s estimation – contributed to the demand for independance of what was then East Pakistan and led to the creation of Bangladesh as a country. Look up the history of Bangladesh some time and see how cyclones have been a regular feature and a major driver of the countries development. I was humbled by the way that the people there responded to Sidr and regularly point out to people just what development really means using this as an example.
Although I admit that – as someone who has visited Bangladesh a number of times over recent years – I may have dropped facts in here without reference, but none of these details are hard to find and in no way in contention.
If you want to drop a snarky comment into a discussion thread here at WUWT and then run around accusing people of making unsupported comments you show yourself to be little more than a troll. I see that many people have addressed the issue of land growth in the delta region – another well-know and uncontested fact – in response to your snark. I doubt that this response will change anything about your behaviour, but I will make it a policy to completely ignore your comments in future and I suggest others do likewise.
That’s a pretty vague statement. You’re welcome to bring data and make your case, if you think you have one.
I don’t know about Dr Indur Goklany but I do know that some Bangladeshi geographers say that Bangladesh has gained landmass over the last several decades.
Well, with a huge river emptying gigantic masses of debris every year, it is obvious that Bangla Desh is gaining land. Look at a historical map which recreates the Nile delta some thousands of years ago.
Let’s hope Barry stops panicking now.
http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0902/images/climate.2009.3-f1.jpg
Its getting sediment. Dont they know about deltas, sand islands etc etc. land building and erosion long term used to be taught in Geograpy, what now?
Barry,
the Ganges-Brahmaputra River delta (where Bangladesh is) was formed at a time of heavy monsoon rains and rapidly rising sea levels. It’s worse than you thought! We must not act now!
Barry,
How is lowering our co2 going to control subsidence?
And so on. Barry, check your stuff first before firing off Warmist claims. It’s just not as simple as rising sea levels.
Google Pakistan weather history like I did and you see will how many centuries they had flooding and earthquakes….long before human made global warming
Bangladesh is far more worried about naturally occurring arsenic in their water than they are about CO2 in the air.
And also saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources and soils, requiring people to eek out an even more marginal existence or else migrate… where? Bangladesh is already the most densely populated country in the world, with up to 2/3 of the land area submerged during the flood season. I still contend Dr. Goklany should go there and present his thoroughly researched (8-page) paper.
I have heard about disatrous sea level rise in Bangla Desh, turned out to be shifting sandbanks in the Ganges delta…
Barry, the situation of Bangladesh is similar to The Netherlands also a delta of several large rivers. That made very good fertile ground where people did and do concentrate. The Netherlands has a history of coast and river flood control that spans over ten centuries. They have build dikes and flood dams to protect people and properties against storms with 6-7 meter increased sea level (you know that the current sea level rise is only 0.3 meter at the end of this century and not accelerating?). They even constructed a lot of new land where once the sea was. The lowest point in The Netherlands nowadays is 12 meter below MSL…
They are now exporting their knowledge to other countries, helping New York and New Orleans to make plans to protect themselves and they help Bangladesh by building dikes and shelters against the inevitable next cyclone…
The point is that it costs much less to protect people against natural disasters than killing their economies for something that hardly has a measurable effect within the large natural variability…
They have been exporting that expertise for a LONG time. Some of the most productive agricultural land in Britain is the fenland reclaimed by Dutch engineers over 300 years ago. An interesting by product is that the rivers and drainage channel are no ABOVE the level of the land. If you see what looks like a railway embankment its probably a waterway.
Dr. Goklany advocates policy commensurate with the actual threat. His is among the more moderate voices addressing global warming alarmism. It appears to me he recommends that marginalized societies, many of which exist in precarious balance with their natural environments, should take actions to secure their own safety. It is strange that that message should elicit an ad hominem.
Cargo cults might wait for some sort of savior to arrive from on high, but (especially poor) people today can be expected to learn the difference between manna from heaven, and working to secure their safety.
This is another inept piece of statistical manipulation. It’s the same problem as trying to separate human global warming from natural variation. Impossible. Just so much Crap
I can believe it.
Fuel poverty brought about by mandated abandonment of fossil fuels and replacement with unreliable ‘renewable’ energy will cause many unnecessary deaths. Keeping on our course of increasing reliance on wind and solar energy will results in people being deprived of warmth, hot water, and refrigeration. Death by freezing, poor sanitation, or malnutrition – take your pick.
Actually since the earth is obviously cooling again, we will have millions of deaths due to starvation and cold. As always: warm=happy times, cold=deathly times.
I suggest a starting point: prove CO2 in the atmosphere causes a measurable warming…to have any credibility, STOP MONTHLY ADJUSTMENTS!!!!
They should have been more scientific and estimated the deaths at “Umpty million gazillion”.
Dear Barry,
Bangladesh is in no danger from rising sea levels. That is because the country is the delta region of the Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Meghna Rivers. Those rivers deliver silt from the Himalayas, silt which is deposited at sea level (where flow velocity diminishes).
Due to the delta formation process (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_delta), Bangladesh has been exactly at sea level for millions of years. No matter what the sea level has been, Bangladesh assumes that position.
If that were not the case, how do you explain why all the Earth’s deltas are at sea level today? Is that a giant mind-boggling coincidence? Do you think all the world’s deltas were high and dry a few millennia ago when sea levels were dozens if not hundreds of feet lower? And that they all are exactly at sea level today by magic? And that if the seas were to rise a few inches over the next 100 years, Bangladesh would be drowned?
Because if you do, that’s not very good thinking on your part. Try some real science. It works.
Simple things like this escape alarmists. Very good point.
Exactly, these are the sophomoric geniuses who have brought us water shortages and epidemics (pertussis) in California, despite the advent of civil engineering and modern medicine/vaccinations.
These misanthropes belong in the ninth circle of hell, accompanied by most of the anti science charlatans who claim to be “climate scientists,” along with their anti-nuclear, anti-vaccination, anti-fracking, anti-GMO, anti-development and growth, and anti-coal fellow travelers. If God be just, burn baby burn…
“Grossly exaggerated” = completely made up out of whole cloth, and pulled from their arses, just like the whole notion of “climate refugees” is.
Climate refugees are real. After toughing it out through global warming up north, would be survivors migrate to Florida, where they are quickly fried in summer. They then migrate to the coastal Carolinas (half-backs) or else choose to winter in Florida and summer in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
You could have put quotes on this:
“global warming up north”
Here is the truth: PHOTO
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0d/Blizzard2_-_NOAA.jpg
Ironically the best protection from deaths from global catastrophes is economic growth. Climate related deaths in developed countries are a fraction of that in underdeveloped countries even for similar catastrophes because of better housing, infrastructure etc. Poverty kills. It leaves whole communities I’ll equipped to defend themselves from the forces of nature. If the funds that were being diverted into global warming schemes was used to improve living standards not only would the 250,000 additional lives be reversed life expectancy, child mortality and living standards would improve. If people remain in poverty because of stupid global warming policies which prevent for instance base load electricity in poor countries I know where the deaths ledger would lie. It would show a considerable deficit against alarmist policy.
I estimate that the cost of the study this blog referred to has probably added 10-15 lives to the ledger.
Frankly, I think they underestimated the number of deaths that will be caused by climate change. As we know, a new paper came out that proves that old age is primarily caused by climate change*. Millions of people die every year of old age.
* – If no paper has yet come out proving climate change causes old age, wait a while. I’m sure it’s in the works.
Ah, yes. The World Health Organization. Famous for, among other things, it’s thoughtful and careful handling of the swine flu pandemic.
Oh, wait…
To say nothing of ebola. I was in Scotland in 1960 where an outbreak of foot and mouth was prevented from spreading by enforced quarentine. Now there are immune people who could be paid by aid agencies in the nursing needed for ebola and many people could be helped by a paid job and by help in home nursing and the food etc from the UN dropped off at homes to keep the people confined to home. Also having survived from ebola and knowing the language they bring HOPE. Survivors can also be paid to donate blood. That way the money goes to the poor directly. WHO has been a disaster so far. Where is Fred Hollows when we need him.
Look, 250,000 people sounds like an awful lot, but that’s less than a thousand people a day, and around the world? The number of people who die every day is already up in the hundred thousands range when you consider the whole world.
How many more people will die if McDonalds comes out with a tasty new high cholesterol menu item? Because no doubt some people will die because of it.
I’m just saying, even if this was assumed to be correct, this is the noise level.
“Look, 250,000 people sounds like an awful lot, but that’s less than a thousand people a day, ”
That 250,000 is over 20 years.
So, 12,500 per year.
So about 1,047 per month.
So 35 per day.
Oops–Upon double-checking, I see the claim is 250,000 per year.
Why oh why is a line like this ALWAYS somewhere in the rantings of the Climateers? Even if their
video games of doomhealth models DID work, they are computer generated fantasy and NO ONE should be making any decisions based on their output. It’s not like these models are based on science, they are statistical grant generating engines, nothing more.For example, the Guardian reported here that dirty water kills 5,000 children a day in africa. Forget your paltry 250K a year, that’s almost two million kids. Would cheap energy not have a big impact on that problem?
Get your priorities straight alarmists!
Well said.
Yep – that and DDT to help get rid of malaria (the other big third world killer)
According to the Guardian In 2009 Kofi Annan’s think tank said that climate change is already responsible for 300,000 deaths a year and is affecting 300m people. So the 250,000 deaths are on top of the 300,000? It’s could be worse than we thought!
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/may/29/1
Others say 100 Million deaths by 2030
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/26/climate-change-deaths_n_1915365.html
Some say climate change is killing 5 million people a year!
http://mic.com/articles/21419/climate-change-kills-5-million-people-every-year
As you can see these people are all talking out of their back sides. They pull facts right out of their arses and want more money. Garbage into their mouths, bullshit out.
True. It’s hard to refute eleventy billion.
Usually there’s a “Claim:…” in the title of any posts on published science. Why not this one, I wonder?
This post is about the GWPF report, not the WHO report.
No kidding, hence no “Claim” pretext.
The IPCC is not the only UN agency scaremongering based on BS modelling
The WHO is up to their eyeballs in the same .
More Pathological Science. That another UN agency, the WHO (World Hysteria Organization?) is responsible for a lot of it should be a sobering wake up call for us all
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/19/peer-review-the-skeptic-filter/#comment-383149
“Sometimes some of us think WHO stands for the ‘World Hysteria Organization,’” said Dr. Richard Schabas, who was Ontario’s chief medical officer of health from 1987 to 1997. “There seems to be a culture at WHO where they’ve convinced themselves that a pandemic is such an imminent danger that they overreact.”
If climate change kills anyone, it will be because of the coming glaciation.
If climate change kills anyone, it will be by crushing to death under a monstrous stack of grant applications.
We can only hope!
“the WHO study risks scaring people into taking ill-considered costly actions to limit greenhouse gases”
that is the idea so the report ‘works’
It’s just like the famous Mark Twain said, “The report of
my deaththese future climate deaths was an exaggeration”.If only we had a cold spell to preserve things…………
The psychology of fear ?
Yeah, but… “if shutting down the global economy by banning all fossil fuel use saves the life of just one child, it will be worth it.”
Isn’t that the usual sales pitch? It makes shutting down the global economy to save 250,000 seem entirely reasonable.