Guest essay by Jim Steele,
Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism
Suggesting impending climate doom, headlines have been trumpeting polar bears are “barely surviving” and “bears are disappearing” prompted by a press release hyping the paper Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline (hereafter Bromaghin 2014), which based on an ongoing US Geological Survey (USGS) study. Dr. Susan Crockford rightfully criticized the media’s fear mongering and failure to mention increasing bear abundance since 2008 here. She also pointed out that modelers have consistently failed to account for the negative impacts of heavy springtime ice here.
I want to reinforce Crockford’s posts, plus argue the problem is much worse than she suggested. Bromaghin 2014’s purported 25 to 50% population decline is simply not real. The unprecedented decline is a statistical illusion generated by the unrealistic modeling of polar bear survival from 2003 to 2007. The highly unlikely estimates of low survival were made possible only by ignoring the documented effect of cycles of heavy springtime sea ice which forces bears to hunt outside the researchers’ study area. Although several of Bromaghin’s co-authors had previously published about negative impacts of heavy springtime ice, they oddly chose to never incorporate that evidence into the USGS models. The following demonstrates how the statistical illusion of “disappearing polar bears” was generated and I urge you to forward your concerns about USGS fear-mongering via subjective modeling to your congressmen and push them to fully investigate these USGS’ polar bear studies.
Perhaps polar bear researchers are just victims of confirmation bias. Co-authors of Bromaghin 2014 have long tied their authority, fame and fortune to predictions of impending polar bear extinctions due to lost summer sea ice. In a 2008 Dr. Andrew Derocher predicted, “It’s clear from the research that’s been done by myself and colleagues around the world that we’re projecting that, by the middle of this century, two-thirds of the polar bears will be gone from their current populations”. Dr Steve Amstrup, chief scientist for Polar Bear International and the USGS researcher that initiated the Beaufort Sea studies, previously published “Declines in ice habitat were the overriding factors determining all model outcomes. Our modeling suggests that realization of the sea ice future which is currently projected, would mean loss of ≈ 2/3 of the world’s current polar bear population by mid-century.”1 Furthermore the USGS’ political reputation is on the line because their studies led to the listing of polar bears as “threatened” due to decreasing summer ice they attributed to CO2 warming. But why do USGS model estimates differ from Inuit experts and the Nunavut government who have steadfastly claimed it is the time of the most polar bears. And why does the USGS’ models differ from numerous surveys (i.e here and here) that support the Inuit claims?
There are 2 major flaws in USGS models:
1) USGS Polar bear researchers tirelessly point to hypothesized stress due to lost summer sea ice, yet they completely ignore much more critical cycles of heavy springtime ice. As previously documented by Bromaghin’s co-authors, the condition of springtime sea ice determines the abundance and/or accessibility of ringed seal pups. Eighty percent or more of the bears’ annual stored fat is accumulated during the ringed seal pupping season that stretches from late March to the first week of May. At that time female bears emerge from their maternity dens to feast on ringed seal pups, and accordingly USGS mark and recapture studies focus virtually all their efforts during the month of April. Yet not one model has incorporated known changes sea ice during that same period. Is that data purposefully omitted because heavy spring time ice does not support their CO2-driven extinction scenarios?
2) Furthermore heavy springtime ice forces movement outside the study area because it prevents local access to seal pups. Any movement outside the study area prevents subsequent recapture and can erroneously cause models to assume emigrant bears are dead. That false assumption creates lower survival estimates which then dramatically lower population estimates. Misinterpreting a temporary or permanent exodus away from a stressful local environment was the same critical error that led to bogus extinction claims for the Emperor Penguins. Coincidently one modeler, Hal Caswell, created both models falsely suggesting Emperor Penguins and Polar Bears are both on the verge of extinction.
1) Why Spring Ice Conditions Are More Critical than Summer Ice.
South Beaufort Sea bears increase their body weight primarily by binging on ringed seal pups, and the bears’ springtime weight gains are huge. Researchers reported capturing a 17-year-old female, with three cubs-of-the-year, in November 1983 when she weighed just 218 lbs. Her weight would have continued to drop, as it does for all bears, throughout the icy winter. Weights do not increase until seal pups become available in late March and April. But after gorging on seal pups, she was recaptured in July and weighed 903 lbs, a four-fold weight change in just 4 months. 2 (her picture is below). The ability to rapidly gain weight, hyperphagia, evolved as a crucial survival strategy to take advantage of abundant but temporary food sources. Springtime ice conditions govern their access to the fleeting availability of ringed seal pups.
In 2001, Bromaghin 2014 co-author Stirling described the negative impacts of heavy rafted springtime ice. “In the eastern Beaufort Sea, in years during and following heavy ice conditions in spring, we found a marked reduction in production of ringed seal pups and consequently in the natality of polar bears.” Stirling noted it took about 3 years for both seal and bear populations to rebound. Stirling also reported the South Beaufort Sea undergoes ~10-year cycles of such heavy ice, and those stressful cycle had been observed in the 70s, 80s and 90s. 5 The most recent cycle of heavy ice is well documented and occurred precisely when bears increasingly exited the study area from 2003 to 2007.
In 2008, Bromaghin 2014 co-authors Stirling, Richardson, Thiemann, and Derocher published Unusual Predation Attempts of Polar Bears on Ringed Seals in the Southern Beaufort Sea: Possible Significance of Changing Spring Ice Conditions. 10 Those researchers had observed that “unusually rough and rafted sea ice extended for several tens of kilometers offshore in the southeastern Beaufort Sea from about Atkinson Point to the Alaska border during the seals’ breeding season from 2003 through 2006”, precisely when their models calculated low survival and a rapid decline in the polar bear population.
Those researchers reported “heavy ice reduces the availability of low consolidated ridges and refrozen leads with accompanying snowdrifts typically used by ringed seals for birth and haul-out lairs.” And they observed, “Hunting success of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) seeking seals was low despite extensive searching for prey. It is unknown whether seals were less abundant in comparison to other years or less accessible because they maintained breathing holes below rafted ice rather than snowdrifts, or whether some other factor was involved.“ (Forcing bears to claw through rafted ice gives the seals ample time to escape.) Polar bears never defend territories. Instead polar bears are highly mobile. Dependent upon seal pups for most of their annual energy supply, a supply that varies annually, bears simply migrate to regions with greater seal abundance.
After giving birth and completing their annual molt by late June, most ringed seals migrate out to sea to fatten and are no longer available to the bears. After late June the amount of sea ice is no longer important habitat for ringed seals. So any correlations with summer sea ice extent from August to November have a relatively insignificant impact on survival. In fact, more open water benefits seals. In a previous essay, Why Less Summer Ice Increases Polar Bear Populations, I explained why ringed seals avoid thick multi-year ice, and why more open water later in the season benefits the whole food web. Bromaghin 2014’s co-author Stirling previously co-authored a paper reporting ringed seals must feed intensively in the open waters of summer in order to store the fat needed to survive the winter, and that seals suffer when sea ice is slow to break up. 4 He pointed out that in 1992 when breakup of sea ice was delayed by 25 days, the body condition of all ringed seals declined resulting in declining body condition of bears. To supplement their diet, bears will feed on a wide array of alternative items from whale carcasses, walruses to geese eggs. Despite the 2nd lowest extent of Arctic summer ice in 2007, researchers on Wrangel Island reported fatter bears than they had previously documented.6 All the evidence suggests summer ice is far less critical than the condition of springtime ice. So is the erroneous focus on summer ice conditions merely driven by researchers predictions that rising CO2 will cause widespread polar bear extinctions in 30 years?
2) Movement Lowers Survival Estimates which Lowers Population Estimates
Bromaghin 2014 authors acknowledged that the observed movement could bias model results, but simply dismissed the observed transiency of wandering bears writing, “The analyses of movement data suggested that Markovian dependency in the probability of being available for capture between consecutive years remains a potential source of bias. However, we view these results with some caution because of the small sample sizes and prior evidence that bears prefer ice in waters over the narrow continental shelf. Further, there is no reason to suspect behavior leading to non-random movement during the spring capture season changed during the investigation.” But their dismissal is nothing less than dishonest. Bromaghin 2014 authors had indeed observed that heavy springtime ice resulted in reduced hunting success and reduced body condition and would force bears to hunt elsewhere.
Bromaghin 2014 authors were denying their own evidence. A subset of bears had been radio-collared in order to track their movements. Between 2001-2003 when their study area experienced normal springtime ice conditions, researchers estimated high survival probability and high abundance, and only 24% of the radio-collared females had wandered outside their study area making them unavailable for recapture. In contrast during the years of heavy springtime ice between 2004 and 2006 researchers estimated unprecedented low survival, low abundance and observed an increased number of collared females outside the study area doubling to 47% in 2005 and 36% in 2006. 7,9 Yet Bromaghin 2014 argue “there is no reason to suspect behavior leading to non-random movement during the spring capture season changed during the investigation.”
A previous study by Amstrup had mapped the range over which radio-collared bears travelled each year. From his 3 examples illustrated below it is clear that polar bears are not always found in the same place each year. Furthermore in accordance with the changing availability of seal pups due to cycles of heavy springtime ice, he reported polar bears exhibited their lowest fidelity to any given area during the spring pupping season. Finally Amstrup’s map shows bears naturally wander outside the boundaries of the study areas searching for food. Because researchers restricted their search efforts to the east of Barrow Alaska, bears moving in and out of the Chukchi sea area have a far less recapture probabilities. Likewise bears that wander between Alaska and Canada will have different recapture probabilities because different amounts of effort were expended in each country.
Due to movement of bears in and out of the Chukchi Sea region, Amstrup had determined those movements heavily biased previous survival and abundance estimates. 8, 12 Bromaghin 2014 also report that the Chukchi Sea region is more productive than the Beaufort Sea. So it is highly likely that bears migrate between the Beaufort Sea study area and the Chukchi Sea in response to varying periods of localized heavy springtime ice and seal pup availability. So why does Bromaghin 2014 dismiss observed movement bias by arguing “there is no reason to suspect behavior leading to non-random movement during the spring capture season changed during the investigation” and contrary to their own evidence suggest bears would remain in the more productive Chukchi Sea region.
In 2001 Amstrup had previously estimated survival rates of South Beaufort bears as 96.2% and natural survival rates were 99.6% and a population could be more than 2500 bears in 1998. 3 Amstrup reported “polar bears compensate for a low reproductive rate with the potential for long life” (i.e high survival). Because movements of bears into and out of his study area had greatly biased his results he warned, “models that predict rapid increases or decreases in population size would not mirror reality.” Curiouser and curiouser he no longer heeds his own advice. Amstrup and his colleagues suddenly embraced the unprecedented low survival rates of 77%, and a rapid 25 to 50% decline in the population between 2004 and 2008 as seen in their graph of estimated abundance.
In order for their model to generate that unprecedented low survival rate of 77%, (despite no observed change in the trend of body condition for 95% of Beaufort Sea bears) 11 modelers had to dismiss the observed movements outside their study area. Once Bromaghin’s authors had dismissed the significance of springtime movement, their models would interpret a lack of recaptures as an indicator of dead bears which then produced the illusion of a rapidly declining polar bear population.
Below is a table illustrating the simplified effects of historical survival estimates on abundance calculations (assuming no additions from new births and immigration). The numbers listed in the gray columns on the left are the USGS study’s actual number of bears captured annually, and the number of that total capture that were previously marked bears. As the study progressed and newly captured bears are marked, the pool of marked bears increases. If the study area was a closed system, we would expect each year’s total number of captures to consist of an increasingly higher percentage of marked bears once the pool of marked bears was large enough. But each year the number of previously marked bears made up only ~50% of the total captures, suggesting a larger population was more likely than what was currently estimated, and that the length of this study was not yet long enough.
In the simplest models, abundance is determined by dividing the total number of bears captured each year by the percentage of captured marked bears from the pool of previously marked bears. (Read How science Counts Bears for a further discussion of mark and recapture studies) However the size of the pool of marked bears depends upon the bears’ survival probability. To illustrate, for each year I generated 3 different pools according to different historical survival estimates. The resulting change in abundance calculated from those 3 different survival probabilities are highlighted in yellow.
If researchers assumed 100% survival, which is close to Amstrup’s 99.6% in his original study, (but with no additions from birth or immigration) then Bromaghin’s data would estimate a 2010 growing population of 2,255 bears. An estimate that is remarkably similar to Amstrup’s 1998 estimate of ~2500 bears.
If the researchers assumed Amstrup’s 96% survival, a lower survival estimate due to the impact of hunting, then the 2010 abundance would be calculated at 1865 bears. Again remarkably close to Amstrup’s suggested abundance of 1800 for a hunted population.
In the 2006 USGS analyses, 7 the authors interpreted fewer recaptures as an averaged lower survival rate of 92%. A 92% survival rate would produce a stable 2010 population estimate of 1664 bears, which is also 70% higher than Bromaghin’s results.
The only way to generate a tragically declining bear population was to employ much lower survival estimates. And as evidenced by their graph below, that is just what they did for the period of heavy springtime ice with low seal availability and much greater movement out of the study area. When the springtime ice returned to normal so did the bears, and their estimated survival rates likewise returned to the expected high ~95%. The huge error bars in Bromaghin’s survival probabilities (see graph below) during those heavy ice years, illustrates the great uncertainty regards the actual fate of marked bears that were never recaptured.
So we must question why these polar bear researchers ignored their co-author’s earlier warning, “models that predict rapid increases or decreases in population size would not mirror reality.”
Were polar bear researchers blinded by climate change beliefs, or acting dishonestly?
Literature Cited
1. Amstrup (2007) Forecasting the Range-wide Status of Polar Bears at Selected Times in the
21st Century USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Polar Bear
Listing Decision
2. Ramsay, M, and Stirling, I. (1988) Reproductive biology and ecology of female polar
bears (Ursus maritimus). Journal of Zoology (London) Series A 214:601–634.
3. Amstrup, S. et al. (2001) Polar Bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-YearMark–Recapture
Case History. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, Volume
6, Number 2, Pages 221–234
4. Chambellant, M. et al. (2012) Temporal variations in Hudson Bay ringed seal (Phoca
hispida) life-history parameters in relation to environment. Journal of Mammalogy,
vol. 93, p.267-281
5. Stirling, I. (2002)Polar Bears and Seals in the Eastern Beaufort Sea and Amundsen
Gulf: A Synthesis of Population Trends and Ecological Relationships over Three
Decades. Arctic, vol. 55, p. 59-76
6. Ovsyanikov N.G., and Menyushina I.E. (2008) Specifics of Polar Bears Surviving an Ice
Free Season on Wrangel Island in 2007. Marine Mammals of the Holarctic. Odessa, pp.
407-412.
7. Regehr et al 2006, Polar bear population status in the southern Beaufort Sea: U.S.
Geological Survey Open-File Report 2006
8. Amstrup et al (2000) Movements and distribution of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea
Can. J. Zool. Vol. 78, 2000
9. Regehr, E., et al. (2010) Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort
Sea in relation to sea ice. Journal of Animal Ecology 2010, 79, 117–127
10. Stirling, I. et al. (2008) Unusual Predation Attempts of Polar Bears on Ringed Seals in
the Southern Beaufort Sea: Possible Significance of Changing Spring Ice Conditions.
Arctic, vol 61, p. 14-22.
11. Rode, K. et al. (2007) Polar Bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea III: Stature, Mass, and
Cub Recruitment in Relationship to Time and Sea Ice Extent Between 1982 and 2006.
USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Administrative Report.
12. Amstrup, S. and Durner, G. (1995) Survival rates of radio-collared female polar bears
and their dependent young. Canadian Journal of Zoology, vol. 73. P. 1312‑1322.
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In ‘climate science’, there is only a very small pot of money for reporting the truth and saying, “not much change here, the usual natural cycles explain just about everything.”
However, there are huge troughs of money for manipulating, or distorting the truth to come to unfounded scary conclusions like, “The polar bears will disappear in our children’s lifetimes, because of rising CO2 levels.”
The problem is grant addiction and those grants not being made available unless the conclusion of the study is previously agreed with the grant provider – and that conclusion has to be scary..
I think noble cause corruption has led them to lie. (Knowingly tell a falsehood.)
I think good rhetorical use could be made of Polar Bear Science as an microcosm of what’s wrong with all of alarmist climate-related science. That’s because it is simple enough to see the falsehoods that have been promoted, and because there is no wiggle room for the falsifiers.
Most importantly, it could illustrate an unspoken “conspiracy” in action among a fairly small number of experts. (E.g., by excluding an expert from their meetings because he was a CAGW heretic a few years ago.)
I urge contrarians to press for a congressional panel to request that the NAS conduct an investigation of this microcosm. I also urge them to harp on what’s going on in this research area as a typical and understandable instance of what’s wrong with climatology.
Noble cause corruption, moral hazard, rent seeking, etc. Who can easily check on their work? Polar bears are very lucrative as symbols. Read Huhne on how the deep thinking of the climate obsessed operates. Not a pretty sight.
Here is some food for thought from a poster, E. Smiff, at Bishop Hill blog:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/11/27/bob-misrepresents-the-science-again.html?currentPage=3#comments
“It is from his book, quoted here http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/cr/rRD110FZLZRMS9
see also
http://www.workersliberty.org/blogs/paulhampton/2009/09/26/significance-and-meaning-climate-change
Hulme extends this treatment to what he calls the “four myths of climate change”, which he links to the “human instincts of nostalgia, fear, pride and justice”. The term ‘myth’ is used in “the very specific anthropological and non-pejorative sense of revealing meanings and assumed truths”, not as a falsehood. (2009 p.340) The four myths are: lamenting Eden, presaging apocalypse, constructing Babel and celebrating Jubilee.
The religious overtones are deliberate (Hulme confesses his Christian faith), but actually the arguments work perfectly well as secular myths too.
In lamenting Eden, “climate is viewed as a symbol of the natural or the wild, a manifestation of Nature that is pure and pristine and (should be) beyond the reach of humans. Climate becomes something that is fragile and needs to be protected or ‘saved’”. On this view, by changing the climate humans believe they are diminishing not just themselves, but also something beyond themselves. (2009 p.342-43, p.344)
**
from his own website
http://mikehulme.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/three-meanings-of-climate-change.doc
see also
http://www.faraday.st-edmunds.cam.ac.uk/resources/Hulme.pdf
Presaging apocalypse draws upon categories such as ‘impending disaster’, ‘approaching tipping points’, ‘species wiped out’, billions of humans at risk of devastation, if not death’. This view has widespread purchase, first because of “the enduring human fear of the future which fuels these descriptions of a physical climate on the point of collapse”. Second it “draws strength from the new paradigm of Earth system science with its ideas of complexity, thresholds and tipping elements”. A third reason is “the frustration experienced by some campaigners and policy advocates due to the failure of international measures and agreements to start slowing down the growth in carbon emissions”. However, numerous studies show that fear may change attitudes but not necessarily increase active engagement or behaviour change. (2009 p.345, p.346, p.348)
On the other hand, constructing Babel, “this confident belief in the human ability to control Nature”, is “a dominant, if often subliminal, attribute of the international diplomacy that engages climate change”. This myth of climate mastery and control reaches its apogee with proposals for geo-engineering. Hulme dismisses this approach: “What is therefore proposed is a new, but now deliberate, great geophysical experiment with the planet. The only difference between this purposeful experiment and our ongoing inadvertent one is that we now have the ‘wisdom’ of Earth system models to guide us.” (2009 p.352-53)
Finally, celebrating Jubilee mean that “climate change is an idea around which their concerns for social and environmental justice can be mobilised. Indeed, a new category of justice – climate justice – is demanded, and one that attaches itself easily to other longstanding global justice concerns.” (2009 p.353)
Dec 1, 2014 at 5:02 AM | Unregistered CommenterE. Smiff”
What is a bit of dodgy work on polar bears everyone loves and no one sees in the context of selling a big fat mythos? We are to keep this stuff in context. Just because it is false does not mean it is not true.
……please accept my apology for the spelling typo: my comment is about Mike Hulme
Willis
I quote ‘ but one step over the line leads to a larger one, and before long, the noble corruptee is up to their ears in climategate, lying and subverting the IPCC and packing peer-reviewboxes, and destroying evidence sought by a Freedom of Information act, and commiting fraud and the like’.
Isn’t this supporting Jim’s headline?
The headline aside, the rest of Jim’s article is what the beef / blubber is about. Some polar bear researchers are dishonest by omission. They are aware of the omission, yet chose to omit. That is not being honest, is it???
Omitting important information has got a lot of medical researchers into trouble over the years. Some call it scientific fraud.
http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/33695/title/Top-Science-Scandals-of-2012/
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329864.100-its-time-to-criminalise-serious-scientific-misconduct.html
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/314/5807/1853.short
Ignoring the alternatives, omitting evidence, or any confirmation bias in general is making a mockery out of modern “science”. And it starts with the very act of searching through the literature itself. If you’re only searching for anthropogenic causes, that’s what you will find (as the IPCC shows us again and again).
Jim Steele’s polar bear example as well as the Golden Toad one are excellent examples of how these scientists have been straying from the objective to the subjective. It’s almost as foolish as a high school clique. Their “team” has been preaching a theory for years which is proving again and again to be false.The cognitive dissonance must be difficult to deal with.
The two party system could take a large chunk of the blame for all this. Does anyone have a link to any articles on this at WUWT? It would be appreciated.
Brilliant!
How unusual to have a truthful researcher.
Many thanks, but the wrong people will read it unfortunately.
An excellent article. But very sad, it seems there is no limit that some scientists will descend to. Willis’ quote: “The road to hell is paved with good intentions” is perfect.
But I think the heading:
“Are Polar Bear Researchers Blinded by Belief, or Acting Dishonestly?”
is fine. Perhaps the phrase “some Polar Bear Researchers” would be more accurate, but this kind of usage is very common. People have the intelligence to realise that it doesn’t necessarily apply to every single polar bear researcher.
Chris
Stupid or dishonest, whats the difference when people are put in a position of authority. Would you rather your finances be in the hands of someone incompetent or someone dishonest. In either case, your finances are screwed.
For climate science, polar bears are an obvious Gruberism to manipulate public sympathy. That’s what politicians do, they tell big lies, little lies, medium lies in order to meet objectives, the primary one being to get themselves elected. Getting people to feel good about saving Polar Bears by electing them is what they do. They could give two squats as to what is really going on with Polar bears. Science however should, it should care about what is really going on with Polar bears.
Politics is not a court of law, there are no standards of evidence, and there are little or no rules, there is no judge to keep the legal discussion in line. Science is similar, an explicitly defined approach to get as close to objective truth as possible. There are numerous scientific disciplines that relate to climate, there is no such thing as climate science, climate science itself is a Gruberism, political activism using science as window dressing.
The issue is not the speculation on the horrific consequences of climate change, but the horrific consequences of science becoming the lapdog of politics.
The answer is yes; to both parts of the question.
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2011/09/15/polar-bears-going-extinct-yawn/
Pointman
“Stirling also reported the South Beaufort Sea undergoes ~10-year cycles of such heavy ice”
Why is there a ~10 year cycle?
John,
Have a look at this:
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/06/28/why-is-it-that-every-decade-eastern-beaufort-sea-ice-gets-really-thick/
Susan
likely the researchers were given a political directive. there is a huge problem with US science because the political parties have taken positions on scientific matters, making it a matter of party line as to which theory is correct.
imagine for a moment that one of the political parties in the US made the speed of gravity (instead of climate change) one of their policy planks. Suddenly we would have billions of dollars in funding to prove whatever speed either party was backing, with tons of corruption of science.
this is what has happened to US science. the political parties have turned science into a form of politics and corrupted science in the process. the exact same thing that happened to religion in the past, which is why the US constitution requires the separation of church and state.
what is required in the US is a constitutional amendment that separates science and state.
what we are seeing isn’t noble cause corruption. it is political corruption.
” there is a huge problem with US science because the political parties have taken positions on scientific matters, making it a matter of party line as to which theory is correct.”
Not quite so. There is only one theory.
What I see is one party saying CO2 emissions are causing GW/climate change so we need to shut down coal fired generating plants and subsidize wind and solar electrical generation.
This is of course using a proposed theory to support a course of action.
The other party says that supposed theory is unsupported by the data, and opposes the proposed fixes as unwarranted (CO2 not ruining climate), ineffectual (would not reduce CO2 anyway), and detrimental to society (makes energy less available and more costly).
Only one party has made a (supposed) theory a matter of party line.
The other party has only opposed the proffered cures for it. Opposing costly fixes for an unsupported theory is not offering an alternate theory.
It looks to me like one party has adopted a known faulty scientific premise for purely political gain. This is indeed a problem. That another party opposes their actions is not a problem.
If you object to a political party making a faulty theory a matter of party line, vote for the party that opposes that party.
SR
Steven,
“The other party says that supposed theory is unsupported by the data, and opposes the proposed fixes as unwarranted (CO2 not ruining climate), ineffectual (would not reduce CO2 anyway), and detrimental to society (makes energy less available and more costly).”
I wish to see a real world test. I’ve suggested we offer “renewable energy” like subsides to companies such as Exxon to install carbon scrubbers for the interim years until “renewables” are market competitive. Eventually, our energy sources will have to change so I’m not advocating removing the renewable subsides (yet). If Exxon installs scrubbers, they could then market as “saving the planet”, plus we could then determine the efficacy of mitigation. Exxon, of course, is a proxy for any energy provider.
This thinking should satisfy those who say “follow the money” when referring to the so called behind the curtain funding of “skeptics”, as it would involve the fossil fuel industry. Plus, as the subsidies would be voluntary this makes implementation more palatable. The left gets their scrubbers, the right keeps fossil fuels supported, we get more information and it’s voluntary. This removes some of the vitriol and one can vote for whomever starts thinking for us all instead of against those of opposing parties.
I’d love to hear your thoughts.
What I find sad is that it has apparently gotten as far as the USGS. I recall them being considered as one of the best scientific organizations in the country, by acadamia, industry and other govt agencies. But then I’m a bit biased. I did a 6 month intership there while in grad school. One of the best groups of people I’ve ever worked with.
question: what would happen to polar bear, seal and whale populations in the Arctic if the Arctic was 100 percent iced over year long? Wouldn’t this lead to almost 100% elimination of mammal populations from the Arctic?
Don’t polar bear, seal and whale populations in the Arctic require that some of the Arctic remain ice free, even in the depths of winter, so that marine mammals can breathe? And if these ice free areas are eliminated, the marine mammals would retreat from the Arctic to more southern oceans, and the polar bears would lose most of their food supply, leading to massive die off.
Wouldn’t the polar bears be forced to retreat southward to survive as well, into what is now grizzly bear territory? Isn’t this likely what happened during the Ice Ages, explaining why polar bears and grizzly bears can mate successfully?
So, it seems more likely that heavy ice, not ice free areas are the biggest threat to polar bears. which is consistent with the Arctic being mostly ice free 1000 years during the Holocene Optimum, about 8000 years ago.
How do the polar bear researchers and modellers reconcile this long ice free period with the continued survival of polar bears? If the polar bears didn’t die off then, why should reduced ice cause them to die off now?
Not just polar bears but their favored prey species, the ringed seal, enjoy healthy populations now, under lower summer sea ice extent. They also tolerate well intervals of heavier ice. The seals maintain breathing holes, exploited both by Eskimos and polar bears, who famously cover up their black noses while waiting. The seals also hang out near cracks in the ice. Sea ice is rarely continuous over any very large area. Fifteen percent coverage is usually the standard for ice v. “open water”.
Bowhead whales can surface through thinner ice by breaking it, but rely on polynyas in thicker ice.
Polar bears have survived millennia of much less ice than now, as during the Eemian interglacial & the Holocene Optimum & of much more, as during the Wisconsin glaciation.
Hope Dr. Crockford will correct me if wrong.
Absolutely right.
As far as I’m aware, polar bears can’t eat ice!
Chris
Is there any conclusive evidence that polar bear populations went extinct during the ice free periods of the Holocene Climate Optimum? Why then would models be constructed which assume this to be true? Expect as a matter of political expediency.
ferdberple,
Nothing on the Optimum, but there is info on the last Interglacial (the Eemian, ca. 130,000-115,000 years ago).
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/11/12/eemian-excuses-the-warm-was-different-then-polar-bears-were-fine/
“Today I’ll discuss the response by Polar Bears International representative Steven Amstrup to a comment submitted during their recent “webchat” at The Guardian (Wednesday, November 6), which had to do with the fact that polar bears survived warm periods in the geological past, particularly interglacials.”
The only data from the Optimum comes from archaeological data from an island north of Siberia, ca. 8,200 years ago
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/02/18/the-ancient-polar-bear-hunters-of-zhokhov-island-siberia/
Susan,
Here is something on the Optimum.
Here is another Susan.
Jimbo,
Actually, I meant *polar bear* data from the Optimum period – yes, there is climate data but not so much to tell us what polar bears were doing.
Susan
There is no evidence that they went extinct. Quite the opposite.
Time and time again this point has been made, and time and again Warmists worry. Don’t worry, be happy.
http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/magazine/dec12/polar_bears.asp
“Polar bears are one of the biggest conservation success stories in the world,” says Drikus Gissing, wildlife director for the Government of Nunavut. “There are more bears here now than there were in the recent past.”
“Some populations appear to be doing OK now, but what’s frightening is what might happen in the very near future,” says wildlife biologist Lily Peacock, who has worked with polar bears for the Government of Nunavut and the U.S. Geological Survey.
Politics in action. The Climate of Fear preached by US researchers. “what’s frightening is what might happen”. Not what is happening. What might happen.
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2011/09/15/polar-bears-going-extinct-yawn/
The Polar bear population has grown from 5,000 in the 1950s to about 25,000, according to testimony submitted in 2008 to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and it’s still growing. In other words, the bear population has increased five fold.
the only conclusion that can be drawn from increasing polar bear populations during a time of global warming is that polar bears are like people. they like warm weather better than cold.
which is easy to see. polar bears hibernate during the cold arctic winter, when ice is at a maximum and remain active during the summer, when ice is at a minimum.
if polar bears truly liked cold and ice, they would be active during the winter when ice was at a maximum and hibernate during the summer when ice was at a minimum.
the fact that researchers fail to take this into account shows that they really don’t know very much about polar bears. the hibernation pattern of polar bears is conclusive proof that they prefer warm weather to cold.
[Wasted effort by a banned sockpuppet. Comment DELETED. -mod]
Actually other than the females giving birth in maternity dens, polar bears do not hibernate but remain active all year although will seek shelter dens in bad weather. It is common for Bowhead whales, Narwhal and Beluga to get trapped in ice. Several studies detected significant levels of Beluga fat in the bears suggesting there is reason to hunt in the winter.
Nonetheless the winter is the most stressful time for bears and their weight steadily drops until ringed seal pups arrive. More interesting is the evidence that female bears in the South Beaufort improved their body condition during the same time period these researchers claim they were starving to death. The females begn entering maternity dens in October and November and fast until late March. Despite feeding their cubs, to improve body condition the females must have had adequate food in both the spring and summer. They just had to move to find it.
How can you justify using Markov modeling for something with a memory? I’d love to see the science that backs Polar Bear migration being a random walk.
In their earlier models they argued there was no Markovian bias in an attempt dismiss the radio-collared data. Although the years in question about bears leaving the study area are restricted to 2003 to 2007, they compiled data from 1984 to 2006 to show statistically, although bears temporarily leave the study area they eventually return. But that was a totally meaningless analysis, that only obscured the fact movement outside the study area had indeed biased survival and abundance estimates. One plus of Bromaghin 2014 is at least they now note movement caused “potential bias”, but unfortunately they again dismiss the evidence with “no reason to believe” the bears would move.
Thanks. I thought Polar Bears have an incredible sense of smell. If there were a lot of seals over the horizon, the bears would move in that direction (which is not random movement unless seals exhibit brownian motion). If the seals are moving between their feeding zones, then the bears movement would oscillate as well. It sounds to me like they assumed stochastic behavior to make the mathematics easier.
I don’t know about random but this bear could certainly swim.
If you’re a polar bear researcher you follow the money.
If you’re a polar bear you follow the blubber.
If you’re a blubber producer….. (This is getting too deep.)
Willis, I’m going to impute a motive. In general, I agree that we can’t really know motives of our complex species but, in specific cases, potential motives are few. Indeed a motive for murder is very highly sought after in an investigation. If you had a strong motive (just took out a million dollar insurance policy on the victim), the means and the opportunity, you are close to being toast in that field.
If Jim’s narrative is basically correct, something changed with the guy who thought bears were fine to start with. He is a civil servant – I tried that and know many issues are more important than the truth when it comes to government work. Not ‘going along’ and not ‘being a team player’ quickly puts a firm ceiling on promotion and makes you vulnerable to the next job cuts. Hmm, not using the official departmental model, eh? This gets into your annual performance review. The change is exactly what one might see if one received the memo. It has been remarked on in numerous posts – the fear of not going along with the herd is fear for your paycheck. He was going along practicing his science properly and suddenly he stopped doing this and waffled over to the official position. Now what would make a fellow do that?
” Now what would make a fellow do that?”
Good question, Gary Pearse. Let’s hope that someone doesn’t insinuate that you are attributing lies to the fellow.
“what is required in the US is a constitutional amendment that separates science and state”
“Presaging apocalypse”. Yes. Western Civilization collapses under the thrall of “science as religion” instead of Christianity. The Victorian clockwork society winds down as the rent-seekers crush all “truth-seekers” under their heel. Humans are hard-wired for religion (Faith). Science will never replace actual Faith, because…. think about it.
We already have a constitution that provides for limited government and we ignore that. What we need is to elect different people who don’t see politics as a way to power, fame, wealth and influence and an electorate who no longer votes to rob Peter to pay Paul.
Good luck with all that.
BTW: What was the second part of Eisenhower’s famous remarks on the military-industrial complex? You know, the part that’s even more important but ignored?
Some ideas put forth by Jim:
1) Some polar bear researchers are either blinded by bias or dishonest. (by Title)
2) Some polar bear researchers have focused on summer sea ice.
3) Some polar bear researchers have suggested that less summer sea ice is detrimental to polar bear survival.
4) Some polar bear researchers have suggested massive declines in polar bear survival rates.
5) Evidence suggests that summer sea ice is not nearly as relevant to polar bear survival as spring ice conditions.
6) Evidence suggests that less summer sea ice is actually beneficial to polar bears through being beneficial to a major food source: the ring seals.
7) Evidence suggests that low polar bear counts were due to polar bear movements in response to spring ice conditions rather than low survival rates.
8) Evidence suggests that some polar bear researchers are either blinded by their own belief system or dishonest. (by Conclusion)
While “some” is not explicitly expressed, I took it as understood that Jim was not referring to all polar bear researchers but rather this particular cabal of collaborators.
On the one hand: I agree with Willis. It’s definitely an “idea” put forth by Jim that’s open for criticism and possibly too confrontational for polite discourse.
On the other hand: Jim makes the case. It’s difficult not to conclude that these polar bear researchers are either blinded by their own belief system or dishonest.
Furthermore, Jim doesn’t attribute a motive to the possible dishonesty. One can be dishonest for a noble cause, greed, ego, etc. Therefore the original objection by Willis to “never ascribe to dishonesty what is adequately explained by noble cause corruption” depends upon taking “dishonesty” as a personality trait or motive per se which is not necessarily the case and I think obvious in Jim’s post in context not his intent to imply. Jim has basically made the case that these researchers are either consciously (dishonest) or unconsciously (blind) misrepresenting the evidence to support the CAGW scaremongering campaign. He’s neither ascribing Noble Cause Corruption nor any other motive to these actions.
Exactly. Thank you!
No, Jim, Thank You! It must be incredibly frustrating for you to see your field going down this path of scaremongering with any convenient species like the various frog and butterfly scare stories you’ve torn apart here for our benefit. Having an engineering/chemistry background I have little difficulty with evaluating the physics side of the debate for myself but the biology side is certainly outside of my box. I find your posts to be highly informative and for me much needed. Thank you for your time and effort and if you need to vent a little by calling a misrepresentation a misrepresentation I don’t see the harm in doing it here. Personally, I thought it was rather generous of you to leave out the third option of them being blinded by incompetence.
Thanks again John. Indeed it is incredibly frustrating to see my field going down this path of scaremongering. The virtues of ecology and conservation science can provide great benefits to guide policies that would be a win win for both humans and the environment. When the politics of climate change and other agendas hijack the science, we have missed a tremendous opportunity to educate people about all aspects of climate and ecology. However I remain optimistic as several colleagues who were once global warming believers, have acknowledge the validity of the arguments I published in my book and became skeptics themselves. They admit they simply never examined climate change assertions critically before.
But all scientific hypotheses are mere personal opinion until they are thoroughly vetted and tested. Unlike more readily tested hypotheses, climate change requires many decades before we can truly test predictions from competing theories. I just hope I am still around by 2050 to see the spin when we observe that the predicted “loss of ≈ 2/3 of the world’s current polar bear population by mid-century” was all a statistical fairy tale!
Hey Jim, I know that SOME of these folks could ONLY be acting dishonestly. They know better than most of us about what thick spring ice can do yet they, the experts, made a decision. That is being dishonest.
Excellent summary.
Thanks, Dr. Steele. It’s good to learn about polar bears from a safe distance.
I’d say: Blinded by the light of money and fame.
Could the problem be as simple as the researchers have no real understanding of polar bears, polar bear behavior, their natural environment, the natural history and climate history of the polar bear environment and how the bears react to changes in their environment? Could be problem be they have no realistic understanding of what they are studying?
flat out lying………
Noble Cause Corruption … is still corruption.
Victim of Noble Cause Corruption …. now I would have to mull that one a bit. Perhaps a victim of circumstance? If that being the case then we need to address the purveyors of this circumstantial victimization.
In a court the said victim, while being charged with corruption, would have the opportunity to testify against the perps. That would make for a reasonable assumption that it would be in the best interest of the said victims to bring them to task to allow them the opportunity to escape future victimization. That would also be good for science as well as the taxpayers.
It is the case of Self v. Self. I would advise taking the 5th immediately.
Exactly, corruption is corruption….no matter its style is always based in greed and self interest. The Devil’s corruption is ALWAYS a “noble cause”. That is what gives it the power over others.
If “noble cause corruption” was actual “nobility”, the doer would break down in remorse at the beaconing of truths relent. The fact that this rarely happens shows that there is “noble cause CORRUPTION”, not “NOBLE CAUSE corruption”.
“Blinded by Belief, or Acting Dishonestly?”
Well, lessee – are the “the polar bears are all gonna die and so are we” clowns breathing? Then they’re lying.
Next question?