Holy crap on a cracker! This Q&A with Michael Mann at some blog nobody has ever heard of called “Down with Tyranny” leaves me wondering, what is he smoking? I think the self imposed “climate interpreter” title needs some work.
-by Gaius Publius
One of my hats is as a climate interpreter to the interested lay person. I have something of a science background and can read the papers “in the original.” Another hat is as an occasional interviewer for Virtually Speaking. This month the two hats merged on the same head, and I got to interview the “Hockey Stick graph” climate scientist, Dr. Michael Mann. – See more at: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2014/10/michael-mann-on-climate-theres-very.html#sthash.y25kBteI.dpuf
[QUESTION] What level of CO2 is reasonable?
[ANSWER] Most still think that 350 ppm (parts per million) CO2 is what’s needed to keep us at the upper end of Holocene (era of civilized human culture) temperatures. For contrast, the ice ages averaged about 180 ppm CO2 at the bottom, and pre-industrial (pre-1750) concentrations were about 280 ppm CO2. Pre-industrial temperatures were at the bottom of the Holocene (post–ice age) temperature range, so there’s some headroom above that 280 ppm number. How much exactly? No one knows.
It looks like we’re headed for a IPCC-“safe” 450 ppm CO2 unless we stop. Not safe, IMO; nor in Dr. Mann’s. For starters, this “450 ppm” measures CO2 only, not other GHGs like methane and nitrous oxide. The effective ppm in “CO2 equivalent” with those other added GHGs is higher if only CO2 is at 450.
It’s roughly thought that the original ice sheet formations of 35 million years ago, which gave us modern Antarctic, Greenland and Arctic ice, occurred in a cooling environment that crossed below CO2 concentrations in the range of 550-400 ppm or so.
First, that’s a wide range. Second, that’s no indication of what will happen going the other direction, where the warming tipping points are. Hansen writes, correctly IMO, that real climate sensitivity depends on (a) the starting point (i.e., how near we are to tipping points), and (b) the direction (effect of warming of X amount is not necessarily correlated to the effect of cooling of that same amount).
Nevertheless, the massive uncertainty, plus the world-historical consequences, gives most of us pause. Me, I think 450 ppm CO2 is ultimately a death sentence for civilized humans. Back to life as hunter-gatherers for our third- or fourth-generation descendants. And if worldwide social chaos takes over before we stop, the process could run to conclusion, which, the old IPCC A1FI scenario says, tops out at +7°C warming.
On Mann:
“First, he’s actually good on the politics, better than most. But second, I wanted to get his thoughts regarding next steps. For me the key, core messages are — Stop Now… Zero Carbon “Budget” … Free Market Solutions Won’t Work. He surprised me in agreeing with the third point, and I hope he carries that message to the public going forward. He was already mainly on board on the first two, but I wanted to hear him say so for the record, since I hadn’t encountered his public comment on this. “
Source: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2014/10/michael-mann-on-climate-theres-very.html
H/t to Steve Mosher
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Wow! I would have thought that the Malthusian theory was dead. Have these scientists ever heard of technology? In their twisted imaginations we have enough ability and talent to destroy (if it were possible), but not enough ability and talent to be able to overcome any obstacle without their divination.
At least they are more open to the admission that this is about free markets. Watermelons!
Malthus and carrying capacity has little or nothing to do with CAGW. We are burning fossil fuels. That means they will someday decline. That does not mean IPCC is right. And the soft limit shoe that pinches worst by 2050 is food calories. Liquid tranportation fuel is the other. Neither closely tied to CAGW.Study it out. Read my books, check the logic and footnotes, then counter. I may not be right. But bring substance, not religious opinion, to the debate. And heck, I am mostly on your side of the core argument!
rud: Have you never heard of methane hydrate? This will generate plenty of liquid carbon-based fuel, and it is virtually everywhere. It will provide plenty of liquid fuel.Natural gas is already being turned into diesel fuel, although the current low prices mean there is no rush to bring it to market. Given 40 years of development , methane hydrate will do the same.
As for the food calorie pinch by 2050 , this assumes an attempt to distribute all available calories equitably among the world’s population. Sadly, the population growth in many parts of the planet will be self limiting either through starvation, war, or famine. It is unlikely that the first world will be impacted significantly. It has ever been thus and likely always will be so. Unfortunately as we are seeing in Africa with Ebola, our best efforts and intentions cannot save everyone.
Not only is this loon wearing two hats, he must be making them too, the old fashioned way.
I just made a hat for “Pop Culture Trendology” and when I put it on I had a vision of Gore & Mann’s movie becoming a cult film, just like Reefer Madness!
That was a Freudian slip since they know the policy over reach will in fact do that in a push cart nation and world.
Hogwash. CO2 temperature sensitivity is far less than advertised. For every doubling of CO2 concentration we can expect a 0.2C temperature increase over ocean thanks to the strong regulatory effect of clouds. Over land we can expect an increase of 0.4 to 2C dependent on the propensities to generate clouds. CO2 also increases vegetation (feed the hungry) and stabilizes the environment. As I had said:
What then is this “Carbon Pollution”?
A sinister, evil collusion?
CO2, it is clean,
Makes for growth, makes it green,
A transfer of wealth, a solution.
Explanation: http://lenbilen.com/2014/02/22/co2-the-life-giving-gas-not-carbon-pollution-a-limerick-and-explanation/
Indoors, CO2 levels can reach several thousand parts per million. Funny how no one notices.
Yeah, do seamen get out of submarines after months at sea wanting to hunt and gather? Actually, probably they do, but it’s the two-legged variety.
Hah! Good one
+1
This isn’t a take off on the old definition of dancing being a navel engagement with no loss of seaman – perhaps my spelling is off?
Well, the CO2 count in my house right now is 542 PPM. I’m not hunting and gathering. I’m making reservations.
self-destructive ego
“So the frog took a deep breath, and blew and blew and blew, and swelled and swelled and swelled, at this moment he burst.”
This guy lectures students who’s parent paid money to the University?
Its not the CO2 level that will turn us into hunters & gatherers, (what are left of us), but the economic chaos caused by attempted mitigation. Any even casual economist will agree that we are setting up to destroy our economies.
Did I read that the UK is expecting power outages this winter? With economic collapse caused by artificially induced energy price rises, we will experience food shortages next. And I am not talking about third world countries!
Mann should study a little economics, that is if he is sane enough to study anything!
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
Mann is delusional!
I like to think of myself as a reality interpreter.
Here is what I have interpreted.
Rising CO2 has increased global temperatures imperceptibly. Most of the effects on life have been beneficial. We can probably expect another imperceptible rise in global temperature over the next 100 years. Most of the effects on life will be beneficial.
I went and bought a space heater for my house. I’ve never needed one before and I’ve lived here for 7 years. (well, I needed it last year, but I toughed it out!) So I’m using wood, gas and electric to warm my house this fall. I’m worried about winter. We all got spoiled with all those mild winters (where I live). Our mild little September is officially over. My feet are cold. My hands are cold. My nose is cold. I guess I’m gonna have to boost the thermostat, but I’ll have to pay for that. Please don’t let winter be like last year!
Silk+whatever-wicking-nano skier longjohns, Gary. Kept me warm during a winter at Lake Louise with nothing to heat the cabin but a wood fire and bear skins. (And a warm body in bed.) Japanese socks with toes, and half-hand warmers. And something for the neck. AND, of course, the bloody space heater.
Smells like desperation to me.
I have always wondered what desperation smells like. Apparently it smells just like….crap.
This Michael Mann is still fairly young. He’s going to live long enough to see himself completely discredited. There’s no way out for the likes of him. He’s sunk his cost, his career, his reputation. He will live long enough to see himself ridiculed. The sad news is that I don’t think he’ll even care. Narcissistic men like him never back down. He’ll take his mantra to the grave. Poor soul.
Consider Paul R. Ehrlich. He’s been wrong about pretty much everything since the 1960s and yet he still has his career in academia. Mann has found his niche; he’ll exploit it like Ehrlich.
It’s called tenure.
Or “Dr. Jim Bruce,” the Canadian who co-founded the IPCC with Maurice Strong. Only doctorate I’ve found for the guy is a couple of honorary doctorates; hence, the “Dr.” Probably why he’s ‘Jim Bruce’ as well. No one can catch his credentials.
Correction: “[…] no one can CHECK his credentials.”
Don’t forget this is post normal society. The captain of the Ship of Fools who sailed to Antarctica last mid summer to chronicle the devastation of GW on the sea ice (Dr. Turney of Oz – Is he from the Climate Science Centre of Excellence?) got himself and two rescue ice breakers stuck in the ice – he needed helicopter ferrying and he set back Antarctic researchers a year by tying up their supply ship. Yeah, well he got an award for this debacle! Mann, Glieck the felonious imposter, and others received awards and most of them awarded themselves a Nobel Prize.
Yeah but… the worm is turning. The climate is turning. Mann (and all others) didn’t get their climate nonsense passed in all the proper nations. The climate is gonna change regardless of his squeaking, regardless of his inability to pass CO2 legislation. What will they do then? When the climate goes cooler without all their safeguards? Without all their legislation? Without all their caps? I, of course, am hoping it all goes warmer again very soon, but from my porch – – – things are looking cooler. And that will have to hurt their theories, eh?
35 million yrs bp – most likely when Antartica fully cut off from other continents. No need to call on for CO2 for the main climate driver at that time.
Hansen is on record for stating continental/ocean basin configuration 65 million years bp is not substantially different from present – to that I say …. BS …. Without that assumption, any attempt to validate computerized climate models falls apart.
Panama isthmus closed circa 3.2 my bp. What that did to ocean circulation and global heat distribution is anyone’s guess.
-by Gaius Publius
One of my hats is as a climate interpreter to the interested lay person. I have something of a science background and can read the papers “in the original.
At first I though that this was Mann’s new Stick err Shtick
I was about to challenge his claim — proved erroneous by his bogus science that he ” something of a science background and can read the papers “in the original. ”
I think he either has missed the lessons in arithmetic or possibly integrity of data
The logic here is not that 450ppm Co2 is a problem, rather Humanity is. If we were forced back to hunter-gathers by green stupidity/totalitarianism, life would be nasty, brutish and short. Human population would plummet.
Just what the Greens want.
The hilarious irony being that the survivors will be preppers with guns and good old fashioned know-how. None of those people are Greens.
What the Greens want? They’d best be pumping iron like they do in the joint before that happens. They are a rather tenderfooted bunch and may not stand up well to the muscley hunters and gatherers.
On Mann:
“First, he’s actually good on the politics, better than most. But second, I wanted to get his thoughts regarding next steps. For me the key, core messages are — Stop Now… Zero Carbon “Budget” … Free Market Solutions Won’t Work. He surprised me in agreeing with the third point, and I hope he carries that message to the public going forward. He was already mainly on board on the first two, but I wanted to hear him say so for the record, since I hadn’t encountered his public comment on this. “
As Vaclaw Klaus has said the new Reds are the Greens — why are we surprised
Tune in late morning Alaska Time for ia sense of how the funding for Mann and his cohort is likely to fare in the near future — Mann, et al may be able to experience the life as a hunter gatherer sooner rather than later
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.
Albert Einstein
‘He responds to climate change deniers on his RealClimate blog’!!! I thought he just deletes any posts that challenge his thin-skinned world.
Real Climate = Science Censorship.
What is the difference between these two?
a) The Oracle at Delphi at a place associated with the Apollo myths of Greek Gods?
b) The ‘climate interpreter’ at a blog associated with the Mann myths of Un-Debatable CC Dogma?
Answer: the Oracle at Delphi did not pretend to be a scientist and the Oracle at Delphi arguably made sometimes somewhat believable predictions.
John
Michael Mann, What a guy. Bravely and fearlessly challenging the stubborn frontiers of truth and logic.
“I think 450 ppm CO2 is ultimately a death sentence for civilized humans. Dr. Mann says 405 ppm CO2 … ”
Duh … Hey, maybe they can be encouraged to off themselves if it gets to that level?
I have three items of CO2 monitoring equipment, an AZ7755 portable for quick on-site checks, a CO2 datalogger, and an older desktop meter, now rarely used. It has no data-logging but has a nice alarm to spook the uninformed. All are calibrated to 400 ppm. I tend to check that these are working properly at this time of year, because there are local triggers that make the task a bit more interesting. 450 ppm? Yep. got that last week for several daylight hours. Minor bushfire 2.3km upwind. Outdoor daylight readings around 400-410 early part of the day, increasing to 420+ late afternoon if airflow is off the Coral Sea. It always increases to 420+ after dark when photosynthesis shuts down. Indoors, we run the AC fairly light (to keep the bills down) so 1100 is the norm. Kitchen usually around 1400 unless the toast catches fire. Can’t see how 1000 ppm would be a problem. On the other hand, I might be unusual. I spent the first five years of my life living next door (and downwind of) a large coal-fired gas works. Panoramic view of hell from my bedroom window. “What’s all that yellow stuff Dad?” “That’s sulphur … “.
I was talking to a hunter-gatherer the other day. He is an Indian Chief living west of Edmonton up here in Canada. He said that he has observed the signs, and it will be a very cold winter.
“Why” I asked.
He said “White-man chop lots of wood”
That is about the equivalent of a climate interpreter.
;^D
You live in The Chuk?
Back in the real world, UAH shows a notable warming in October, which is consistent with the rising ocean and air surface temperatures being measured.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2014_v5.png
Good! By golly, wonderful news James! Maybe this winter’s die-off won’t be so terrible as forecast.Hope not. Don’t you?
IOW, the 18-year-plus Mann-o-pause continues, blowing to smithereens the Warmist ideology that our “carbon” is driving climate in any way, shape or form.
An El Nino-like pattern at play. Within 2 years )end 2016,winter 2017), we will be heading down, down, … down…
Only due to a higher solar flux in recent months. Notice the dip in temps during the last solar minimum? We’ll be back down to that and further below it soon enough.
Notable warming in October? Caused by the new time-delay CO2?
The quote is not Dr. Mann’s:
“[ANSWER] Most still think that 350 ppm (parts per million)…
It looks like we’re headed for a IPCC-“safe” 450 ppm CO2 unless we stop. Not safe, IMO; nor in Dr. Mann’s.”
I like to fish and gather, myself.