I wanted to highlight an interesting article by Dr. Daniel Botkin. It seems that it helps to be a Professor Emeritus in order to be able to speak your mind freely. Among other things, Dr. Botkin says:
Whatever is happening to Earth’s climate does not seem to be our fault.
What he said …
===================================
Climate Is Changing, And Some Parks Are Endangered, But Humans Aren’t The Cause
Editor’s note: The climate is changing, but is it humankind’s fault? Daniel B. Botkin, professor Emeritus in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology at University of California Santa Barbara, doesn’t believe so. In the following column, he dissects the conclusions reached by the Union of Concerned Scientists in its report, National Landmarks at Risk, How Rising Seas, Floods, and Wildfires Are Threatening the United States’ Most Cherished Historic Sites.
Jamaica Bay National Wildlife Refuge The only wildlife refuge in the National Park System lies within New York City, and is not on the Union of Concerned Scientists List. The refuge is the largest bird migration stop in the Northeast, and serves as a buffer protecting urban development from major storms. Its well-developed paths among birds and flowering plants and along inland wetlands and waterways are available by public transportation to the 8.6 million residents of New York City. (Photo by the author)
See the full article here.
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Thanks for the heads-up, Willis. Great article.
Stasis is not a natural condition.
To be exact, stasis is as natural as change, it’s just that for most definitions of “stasis”, it is less probable than change.
Excellent article that highlights some of the unintended consequences caused by fighting nature instead of adapting.
Botkin say’s this? This is earth shattering Anthony! IMO. Is Al Gore going to say he has dementia too?
Excellent read. Dr Botkin did at the beginning of his analysis of the UCS paper what I also do as a matter of S.O.P., I look at the authors and their affiliations.
From Dr Botkin’s own words on the 4 listed authors:
I’m not focused on the Senior author with the PhD, she of course is a scientist. But this of course from the Union of Concerned Scientists, so especially the first author of what is essentially a Review paper tells you who organized and wrote the bulk of the text, a journalist, and then a fundraiser, and then clearly someone from an outside advocacy group. Hmmmmm.
I thought Dr Botkin takes the paper apart fairly well. He is overly generous IMO, but that is probably his nature of being reserved and kind.
But on a humorous note: here is the link to the Colbert Science Cat-Fight between Joe Bastardi and Brenda Ekwurzel.
http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/l4nkoq/science-catfight—joe-bastardi-vs–brenda-ekwurzel
From the Cobert show, Ekwurzel was asked the question “Do you belive in man-made global warming?”.
She said “Yes, there is overwhelming evidence…”.
Colbert interrupted and asked “What evidence?
Ekwurzel responded, “The seas are rising, glaciers melting…”
Those are results, not causes of anything, man-made or otherwise.
My question, “When did scientists come to believe it their responsibility to be as sleazy as politicians in avoiding questions?”
When their funding depends on it.
When they’ve adopted the beliefs from an anti-human ideology, usually Marxism with its fixed-pie economics and drive-to-the-bottom ethics.
My guess is that’s her last unscripted interview / discussion / debate, anywhere.
Add on
Joe benched 400#.
Damn!
In the hard sciences, which I presume climate scientists believe they are members of, the principal researcher goes last on the list of authors. If the principal researcher did not do most of the writing then the primary author goes first. The rest of the ordering is a bit more random. I assume the journalist wrote the first draft.
Almost all universities that have added “climate science” as a discipline of late have put it in their geography departments.
Hard science? Just as hard as geography, I suppose.
Methinks Rocky Road does not understand what “Geography” study is.
Probably a vague term though. I understand Tim Ball did his work in the Geography department of a U.
(We don’t need more empires. I take “geography as land and the nature of it, such as vegetation. Encarta dictionary 2005 says “study of Earth’s physical features: the study of all the physical features of the Earth’s surface, including its climate and the distribution of plant, animal, and human life.”)
Some of the commenters aren’t happy campers.
I got it – national parks 😉
But on a more serious note, the believers in the comments do seem angry. A lot of ad-hom, call to authority and correlation=causation, but nothing of real substance. Previously believers have been angry with those who were sceptical in part because they believed sceptics were delaying action on a real problem. Now it seems more to be anger at the collapse of their belief system, and anger at sceptics for bringing it about.
I don’t think we have reached peek anger yet. As the number of believers dwindles, the rage against not just sceptics, but those former believers, such as Botkin, that abandon the cause will skyrocket in a self fuelled spiral of rage. Believers express doubt = the fervent spit venom and look increasingly irrational = more believers express doubt = ever more venom and less credibility.
Ultimately the AGW hoax must collapse. It is based on the false hypothesis of a net atmospheric radiative GHE. Science cannot stay stalled just for politics, individual or group reputations or the profits of subsidy farmers. Willis says “winning slowly”. I believe once the rage spiral gets up to speed, things will become quite fast. A venom spiral in the Internet age could achieve an astounding RPM 😉
I’ve noticed that the Kubler-Ross Grief Cycle has been applied (mis-applied) in many areas; I remember from my business days a decade or two ago, it was a feature in the study of resistance to (organization) change.
So maybe I can mis-apply it again here. As many recall the first stage is DENIAL, followed by ANGER (right Konrad?), then BARGAINING (what form will THAT take??), DEPRESSION (Oh, where did those Glory Days go?), and lastly ACCEPTANCE (highly improbable with the current group of true believers).
George,
You need to understand that the Internet is a game changer. Old rules ( including Kubler-Ross) no longer apply. The grief cycle is vastly accelerated.
The squealing warmulonians are trying to move to “bargaining”. Sadly the host of this site, Anthony Watts, thinks there is some advantage in bargaining, due to his new-found power. Who’s thick?!
Science is not about negotiation.
Black or white. Right or wrong. Those are the rules. There is no “half way” Either adding radiative gases to the atmosphere reduces surface cooling ability or it increases it. Black or white. Right or wrong.
The warmuloinians got it wrong. The negotiation phase, no matter how favoured by “lukewarmers” is a dead end.
Is peek anger an emotion experienced by a victim of voyeurism?
Especially when everyone starts phase one at a different time.
Wikipedia:
‘Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years).’
I’d say, it’s not clear there has been any climate change, anthropogenic or otherwise, for the last couple of decades.
EPA’s new set of indicators appears to be more complete:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/
Not all of them show changes, but some do, unlike the set Prof. Botkin has selected.
And your point?
I looked at those ‘indicators’ but I fail to see how some of them can be ‘indicators of climate change;, like US Greenhouse gas emmissions (which is really only CO2 so it is misnamed).
I was curious about the Atlantic Hurricanes indicatoor as well. They show ‘green’ curve that they say is representative of how total Atlantic hurricanes ‘could be’ adjusted to account or the lack of Satellites and Weather AIrcraft in the early part of the record. The ‘adjusted’ hurricane count for 1880-1930 shows a rather sharp decrease in theh number of hurricanes (which makes the trend slightly positive overall). That seems counterintuitive to me. It seems to say that, if we had satellites back in 1880, we would have seen fewer hurricanes. It seems to me we would expect to have seen more hurricanes with better coverage.
Linguistic trickery – all too common in the climate world unfortunately.
These are ‘indicators’ in the sense that certain changes, were they to occur, would indicate climate change is occurring. They are not all indicators in the sense, actual changes to date indicate climate change.
‘All of the indicators presented relate to either the causes or effects of climate change, although some indicators show trends that can be more directly linked to human-induced climate change than others.’
Which means, some indicators don’t show trends that can be directly linked to human-induced climate change and/or don’t show trends at all.
I had a look at several of them and the only one that seemed to show a clear multi-decadal change was US precipitation. Precipitation measurements have the same issue as surface temperature measurements – heavy urban bias. Urban areas have large and well documented effects on precipitation, and measurements from these locations are not evidence of global change.
I noticed:
1) The list includes “Arctic Sea Ice”, but doesn’t mention Antarctic Sea Ice.
2) That none of the indicators listed are indicators exclusive to GHG warming such as a tropical tropospheric hotspot or stratospheric cooling.
Wonder why.
The Union of Concerned Activist Morons, whose membership is essentially covert. Aside from a few “display” Phd’s, mostly with degrees in PARTICLE PHYSICS, which makes them automatic experts (in the past) on NUCLEAR POWER and NUCLEAR WEAPONS….the other 50,000 claim members are “covert”, and their identities is “non-negotiable”. However, thanks to dilligent work by A. Watts, we DO know the identity of at least ONE non-display member, to whit: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/07/friday-funny-the-newest-member-of-the-union-of-concerned-scientists/
I’m hoping that Kenji will have the chance to express a “liquid opinion” on the latest piece of puppy paper (i.e.,what it is worth) presented by the UCS as referenced in this article.
“Whatever is happening to Earth’s climate does not seem to be our fault.”
Good to know. I’ll stop flagellating myself now.
But the very statement that it is “not our fault” presumes something bad is “happening to Earth’s climate.” I’m still waiting for someone to point me to any solid evidence of the bad things that are happening to Earth’s climate. And, no, I’m not talking about data mining to find something that is different than it was 30 years ago and then claiming, without other evidence, that said something is bad. I’m talking about some bona fide evidence that the climate generally is headed the wrong direction.
Anyone?
” I’m still waiting for someone to point me to any solid evidence of the bad things that are happening to Earth’s climate.”
That single question will derail every warmist debate. It’s usually answered with a mixture of; silence, “but the models say..”, and ad hominem. It’s deadly..nobody has ever counter with flimsy evidence.
That, along with “Let’s assume you’re right. What temp do YOU set the thermostat at?…and why?”
+1 Right now the ‘media’ is hyping CAGW but it has been just the opposite for the last 17 years +/-.
Didn’t you hear the polar bears were dying?
I’m talking about some bona fide evidence that the climate generally is headed the wrong direction.
What direction is it *supposed* to be going? No one’s ever established that. Or what a “normal” climate looks like.
This is ridiculous- people saying climate is “going wrong” when there is no defined baseline.
I think the baseline is defined by most in the alarmist camp by Mann’s hockey stick.
We would all have a different opinion by now if the climate was really changing, if local species were going extinct, if local beaches were disappearing and snow stopped coming. But nothing is really happening.
If it were not for the adjusted temperature record and the continued exaggeration of everything-global- warming, the issue would be done already.
What a great article! Winning slowly- yes! Finally there are an increasing number of biologists and ecologists who write about climate science without fear mongering and genuflecting. Years ago, my wife, friends, and I spent many a wonderful day birding at Jamaica Bay NWF. Wonderful memories. Now, 40 years later I’m still out doing field work (or play) most days, studying and writing about butterflies- http://butterfliesofmexicoandquintanaroo.blogspot.com/
Isn’t saying that the climate changes a lot like saying that energy flows? Or that the rising Sun warms the world? And doesn’t it contradict the global warming theory that man is forcing the climate to warm?
One can either believe that mankind is warming the world or that the worlds climate is random, not both.
One can either believe that mankind is warming the world or that the worlds climate is random, not both.
Well nothing precludes both.
And it would be strange if man’s activity had no effect on climate whatsoever.
The only question left is how much? and if its less than 0.1C, why are we so worried?
And let’s not forget that man has warmed the other planets as well… Somehow.
The climate science is obviously not settled but I’m quite sure that both sides can agree on photosynthesis:
Sunshine + H2O +CO2 = Sugars/Food +O2
Strange how this science is getting no weighting.
Maybe, along with replacing fossil fuel energy, we can also replace all food sources that don’t start with growing plants too………….NOT.
Here’s an earlier thread about Botkin:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/31/in-house-testimony-botkin-dismantles-the-ipcc-2014-report/
Winning? The Seattle Times offers this expensive bit of propaganda as their latest installment of a salvo to convince otherwise:
“Ocean acidification threatens to scramble marine life on an unfathomable scale“.
Fathom that!
Do they even realize they punned?
Took the series and the author, Welch, completely apart in the essay Shell Games in Blowing Smoke. The oyster part was guest guest posted at Climate Etc.
Sly puns are used as part of the neuro linguistic process.
Winning?
Look at any National Park or National Monument website and they all promote the CAGW propaganda. And the presentations by the Park Rangers do the same. How do you bring these entities back to reality?
One article isn’t going to do much. Need to do more, confront wherever and whenever…we are doing our best and some are on the defensive…
Speaking of winning slowly:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/06/real-science-debates-are-not-rare/
Saw this 2 hour debate via icecap.us – interesting:
http://old.cityofvancouver.us/cvtv/cvtvarchive2/Community_Events/2014_Events/Forum_on_Climate_Change_10-23-14.mp4
Funding has been confirmed for a £97m supercomputer to improve the Met Office’s weather forecasting and climate modelling.
The facility will work 13 times faster than the current system, enabling detailed, UK-wide forecast models with a resolution of 1.5km to be run every single hour, rather than every three.
It will be built in Exeter during 2015 and become operational next September.
The Met Office said it would deliver a “step change” in forecast accuracy.
“It will allow us to add more precision, more detail, more accuracy to our forecasts on all time scales for tomorrow, for the next day, next week, next month and even the next century,” said Met Office chief executive Rob Varley.
As well as running UK-wide and global forecasting models more frequently, the new technology will allow particularly important areas to receive much more detailed assessment.Met Office to build £97m supercomputer, BBC News Science and Environment 28 October 2014
Hmmm – If the new supercomputer makes it possible to add more accuracy to forecasts next week, next month and even next century,
how come that CO2-experts using simple models and relatively ordinary computersystems still tries to make believe they know what will happen the next 30-50 years?
The facility will work 13 times faster than the current system
==============================================
The Met will be able to get the wrong answer 13 times faster.
And the Met will just compound its errors another 13 times.
After every supercomputer the Met Office gets they say words to the effect of “we’ll be able to carry out better climate projections”. Has anyone noticed improvements? Ahhhh, here it is.
If only the Met Office would employ a chimpanzee issued with a dart they would HAVE TO perform better. It’s much cheaper than a £97m power hungry supercomputer. They could also stick a wetted finger out of the window.
Much cheaper much more acurate and there for not something that any govermanet would go for.
Interesting article. I learned a few things. Even more interestng comments, mostly because those people that did not like the article used name calling to try to make their points. That is a real turn off for me. Now I have to go look at the NPS site and see what it in it.
Wow. Check out this guy’s credentials. I don’t think I’ve ever seen less impressive.
I don’t’ get your comment. You think that you might have seen more impressive credentials ?
Moderators, you might want to consider snipping this dogs comment as it add no value.
[Reply: We don’t snip just because a comment is lame. ~mod.]
What about this comment from the same individual :
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/28/claim-future-focused-women-stand-up-to-global-warming-with-taxes-checkbook/#comment-1773820
Here are his credentials
http://www.es.ucsb.edu/people/daniel-b-botkin
• More than 45 years of research on possible effects of climate change on biodiversity.
• Developed the first successful computer ecosystem model, still in worldwide use in more than 50 versions.
• Did extensive field research in wilderness areas, in forests from Alaska to Michigan to Siberia and in African plains.
• Was one of the first ecologists to investigate possible ecological effects of climate change.
• Conducted extensive scientific studies of endangered species.
• Used historical information to recover wildlife population sizes and sea ice changes.
• Put forth innovative ideas, including challenges to popular myths about nature.
Publications
Botkin, D.B. NO MAN’S GARDEN: Thoreau and A New Vision for Civilization and Nature. Shearwater Books/Island Press, 2000.
Skinner, B., S. Porter, and D.B. Botkin. The Blue Planet. John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
Botkin, D. B. Our Natural History: Lessons From Lewis and Clark. Putnam, N.Y., 1995.
Botkin, D. B. and E. A.. Keller. Environmental Science: Earth as a Living Planet. John Wiley, N. Y., 1995 (1st edition), 1997 (2nd edition).
Botkin, D. B., contributing editor to Art, H. W. The Dictionary of Ecology and Environmental Science. Henry Holt and Company, N.Y., 1993.
Botkin, D. B. JABOWA-II: A Computer Model of Forest Growth. Oxford University Press, N.Y.(Software and manual), 1993.
Botkin, D.B. Forest Dynamics: An Ecological Model. Oxford University Press, 1993.
Botkin, D.B. Discordant Harmonies: A New Ecology for the 21st Century. Oxford University Press, 1990.
Botkin, D.B., M. Caswell, J.E. Estes, and A. Orio, (Eds.). Changing the Global Environment: Perspectives on Human Involvement. Academic Press, N.Y, 1989.
Botkin, D.B. and E.A. Keller. Environmental Studies: Earth as a Living Planet. Columbus, Ohio: Charles E. Merrill, Pub. Co., 1982 (1st edition), 1987 (2nd edition).
West, D.C., H.H. Shugart and D.B. Botkin (eds.), Forest Succession: Concepts and Applications, Springer. – Verlag, NY., 1981. 517 pp
Honors & Awards:
1995 Elected to Environmental Hall of Fame, at California Polytechnic Institute, Pomona, CA.
1995 Fernow Award for Outstanding Contributions in International Forestry, given by American Forests and the German Forestry Association
Mitchell International Prize for Sustainable Development, 1st prize, 1991
Sigma Xi National Lecturer, 1981 – 82; 1982 – 83
Jimbo
As usual you are trying to confuse things with Facts, you do know that we are talking CAGW here.
That’s why his open criticism of the Climate Change establishment is so damaging. It may not get public exposure due to a US media and Press that refuses to report counter-Climate Change analyses, but it does get the attention of those in his field.
Siberian Husky
October 21, 2014 at 8:21 pm
Wow- reading the comments leaves me in no doubt regarding the biases and intellect of the typical reader of WUWT.
Perhaps you should also mention Singer’s views on the health effects of smoking and his relationship with the Tobacco industry? This man has zero credibility on scientific matters.
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A familiar refrain often heard from this particular cult member. He’s a joke, probably even within his own circle of “friends”.
Save the forests, eat smokey the bear.
Canada has suffered the same insanity, even when the boreal forest burns miles from human habitats, the eco-loons obsess about unchecked destruction.
One often wonders if they have any idea the number of fire dependent species.
One often wonders if they have any idea about the number of wildfires in recent years compared to the past. US fire data shows the number of wildfires was lower between 2004 to 2014 than from 1960 to 1970 or from 1970 to 1980.
What about boreal forest fires?
Stop with the FACTS already
the number of fire dependent species
===================
Douglass Fir produces more timber than any other tree in North America, and does not grow in old growth forests due to the shade. It needs fire.
I often wonder what is wrong with people who scream about natural fires in the USA. Aren’t fires supposed to happen? The opposite seems to be the case.
Jimbo
I am tuning you out, Facts are not relevant
Bravo Dr. Botkin, this was a fine piece, but I must point out a factual error. I tried to leave a comment at the source, but they were closed. If someone can reach Dr. Botkin he should be told that Jamaica Bay borders the Atlantic Ocean, not Long Island Sound. It is a feature of Long Island’s South Shore, the ocean side. Please inform him so he can correct this minor error.
This is a very neat, data rich, easy to read summary of where we stand in terms of temperature trends, sea level increases, severe weather and forest fires. What really struck me though is the appalling nature of many of the comments that follow the article. They are genuinely scary in their fanatical belief in CAGW.