Dressing Properly for Ben Santer's Invitation

Guest humor by Sam Kazman, CEI

The Wall St. Journal’s Sept. 20 essay, “Climate Science Is Not Settled”, caused quite a stir, in part because it was authored by physicist Steven Koonin, Dept. of Energy Undersecretary of Science during the first Obama administration. Yesterday’s edition (Oct. 2) carries a letter criticizing Dr. Koonin’s essay on several grounds, and ends on a patronizing note:

“We welcome the constructive collaboration of the physics community in improving our understanding of … climate. Many climate scientists are trained physicists…. We invite Dr. Koonin to join their ranks.”

The letter is co-signed by Dr. Ben Santer, widely known for his work on the climate impact of human activity.

But Santer is also known, to some of us, for a 2009 letter to a colleague complaining about CEI’s petition to EPA to reconsider its Endangerment Finding. The letter was part of the Climategate document leak, and says this about dissenting climate scientist Patrick Michaels, who was then at U. Va. and who now heads Cato’s Center for the Study of Science:

“Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat the crap out of him. Very tempted.”

So if Dr. Koonin is planning to accept Santer’s invitation to join in some scientific collaboration, maybe he ought to show up wearing hockey gear.

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JJ
October 4, 2014 9:31 am

“Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat the crap out of him. Very tempted.”
So if Dr. Koonin is planning to accept Santer’s invitation to join in some scientific collaboration, maybe he ought to show up wearing hockey gear.

No hockey gear needed. People that say things like that are overcompensating pussies. They very rarely attempt to make good on the threats they make to third parties, safely behind the back of the person they are fantasizing about dominating. And when they do it very rarely ends well for them.
Their problem is, they have built a mental model of their own physicality that does not come close to reality. Deep down, most of them know that. That knowledge keeps them from actually testing that model against observations, or from actually risking their own health or resources on their public claims. In that sense, pussy bravado is very much like “climate science”.

greymouser70
October 4, 2014 9:34 am

Ferdberple: GSFC is not the same entity as GISS(aka “the Hansen boys” now herded by Gavin)

Rob
October 4, 2014 9:37 am

He needs to debate Pat. “The Thriller in Manila”. Or, something like that-Lol

Mark from the Midwest
October 4, 2014 9:39 am

Hey: Why don’t we do the debate on a real international style rink, and mic everyone. You get to casually skate by, and trash-talk. We have real time transcription, and just for fun we can throw in a hockey game, and use the NHL rules for checking and hitting. By the way I used to play hockey, (I still skate 3 times a week), and my PhD is in Mathematics. so sign me up

Bengt Abelsson
Reply to  Mark from the Midwest
October 4, 2014 10:13 am

Wont do – the other team will have way more hockey sticks.

Mike H.
Reply to  Bengt Abelsson
October 4, 2014 6:58 pm

+1

October 4, 2014 9:55 am

The first action that exposed the modus operandi of the IPCC occurred with Santer’s actions in the 1995 second Report. He exploited a very limited editorial policy to dramatically alter the findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the Summary. It is likely he did this with guidance from those controlling the output, because he was a very recent graduate and appointee to the IPCC. An action in itself that was questionable.
Benjamin Santer was a Climatic research Unit CRU graduate. Tom Wigley supervised his PhD titled, “Regional Validation of General Circulation Models” that used three top computer models to recreate North Atlantic conditions, where data was best. They created massive pressure systems that don’t exist in reality and failed to create known semipermanent systems. In other words he knew from the start the models don’t work, but this didn’t prevent him touting their effectiveness, especially after appointment as lead-author of Chapter 8 of the 1995 IPCC Report titled “Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes” Santer determined to prove humans were a factor by altering the meaning of what was agreed by the others at the draft meeting in Madrid. Wigley moved to Colorado where he continued to fund and direct his disciples. Witness Wigley’s brief appearance in the 1990 documentary, The Greenhouse Conspiracy and the need to look after his graduate students.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-x4YbXZtIA
Here are the comments agreed on by the committee as a whole followed by Santer’s replacements.
1. “None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases.”
2. “While some of the pattern-base discussed here have claimed detection of a significant climate change, no study to date has positively attributed all or part of climate change observed to man-made causes.”
3. “Any claims of positive detection and attribution of significant climate change are likely to remain controversial until uncertainties in the total natural variability of the climate system are reduced.”
4. “While none of these studies has specifically considered the attribution issue, they often draw some attribution conclusions, for which there is little justification.”
Santer’s replacements
1. “There is evidence of an emerging pattern of climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols … from the geographical, seasonal and vertical patterns of temperature change … These results point toward a human influence on global climate.”
2. “The body of statistical evidence in chapter 8, when examined in the context of our physical understanding of the climate system, now points to a discernible human influence on the global climate.”
As Avery and Singer noted in 2006, “Santer single-handedly reversed the ‘climate science’ of the whole IPCC report and with it the global warming political process! The ‘discernible human influence’ supposedly revealed by the IPCC has been cited thousands of times since in media around the world, and has been the ‘stopper’ in millions of debates among nonscientists.”
The model situation has deteriorated since Santer’s first efforts because they reduced the number of weather stations used and adjusted the early temperature record to change the gradient to create the outcome to support their thesis. Santer, like all the others, will never be held accountable and so he continues to believe he did nothing wrong, even though he admitted he made the changes.

F. Ross
October 4, 2014 9:58 am

Louisville Slugger instead of the “hockey stick”.
Haven’t we had quite enough hockey stick symbolism?

dp
Reply to  F. Ross
October 4, 2014 10:17 am

Besmirching the legend of the Louisville Slugger is inappropriate. Given the frequency the hockey stick is used as a bludgeon it stands as a representative symbol of unsanctioned violence against one’s peers.
Keep it on the ice, Benny.

October 4, 2014 10:11 am

Dr. Ball posted this statement above:
1. “None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases.”
That is the crux of the entire debate. Santer’s mendacious attempts to change the facts goes back a long way. He was outed by the late, great John Daly here.
Santer is in the same league as Michael Mann. Both of them could use an injection of honesty.

mpainter
Reply to  dbstealey
October 4, 2014 11:21 am

An injection of honesty would send them into apoplectic shock.

Jimbo
Reply to  dbstealey
October 4, 2014 12:07 pm

Santer is perhaps worse than Michael Mann considering the number 1 replacement. This changed the course of the ship away from open water towards an ice-berg. We are waiting for the collision.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  dbstealey
October 4, 2014 4:03 pm

A dishonest scientist is no scientist.

Jimbo
Reply to  dbstealey
October 6, 2014 3:24 am

Here are the graphs from Daly site.
===========
“The observed radio sonde record chosen by Santer et al for comparison with the models”
http://www.john-daly.com/stats1.gif
“But this is what the whole record looks like”
http://www.john-daly.com/stats2.gif

dp
October 4, 2014 10:13 am

It sounds like the world needs an activist group to focus on getting Santer fired from his job and to have his life’s work discredited. From all the effort he has put into achieving these very goals it would be appropriate he be made the honorary President, and Secretary of Social Networking and Recruitment. He’s already begun the letter writing campaign.

October 4, 2014 10:39 am

I wrote this a very long time ago, but given the invitation of a climatologist to a physicist to join their ranks, I thought it worth repeating now:
Climatologist; I have a system of undetermined complexity and undetermined composition, floating and spinning in space. It has a few internal but steady state and minor energy sources. An external energy source radiates 1365 watts per meter squared at it on a constant basis. What will happen?
Physicist; The system will arrive at a steady state temperature which radiates heat to space that equals the total of the energy inputs. Complexity of the system being unknown, and the body spinning in space versus the radiated energy source, there will be cyclic variations in temperature, but the long term average will not change.
Climatologist; Well what if I change the composition of the system?
Physicist; see above.
Climatologist; Perhaps you don’t understand my question. The system has an unknown quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere that absorbs energy in the same spectrum as the system is radiating. There are also quantities of carbon and oxygen that are combining to create more CO2 which absorbs more energy. Would this not raise the temperature of the system?
Physicist; There would be a temporary fluctuation in temperature caused by changes in how energy flows through the system, and perhaps a change in temperature distribution from surface to top of atmosphere, but for the long term average of the system as a whole… see above.
Climatologist; But the CO2 would cause a small rise in temperature, which even if it was temporary would cause a huge rise in water vapour which would absorb even more of the energy being radiated by the system. This would have to raise the temperature of the system.
Physicist; There would be a temporary fluctuation in the temperature caused by changes in how energy flows through the system, but for the long term average of the system as a whole… see above.
Climatologist; That can’t be true. I’ve been measuring temperature at thousands of points in the system and the average is rising.
Physicist; The system being chaotic, it may be due to one or more cyclic variations that have not completed, or are coincidental, and a few thousand measuring points across an entire planet are insufficient in any event, even if you have thousands of years of data, which you don’t. Unless the energy inputs have changed, the long term temperature average would be… see above.
Climatologist; AHA! All that burning of fossil fuel is releasing energy that was stored millions of years ago, you cannot deny that this would increase temperature.
Physicist; Is it more than 0.01% of what the energy source shining on the planet is?
Climatologist; Uhm… no.
Physicist; rounding error. For the long term temperature of the planet… see above.
Climatologist; Methane! Methane absorbs even more than CO2.
Physicist; see above.
Climatologist; Clouds! Clouds would retain more energy!
Physicist; see above.
Climatologist; Ice! If a fluctuation in temperature melted all the ice less energy would be reflected into space and would instead be absorbed into the system, raising the temperature. Ha!
Physicist; The ice you are pointing at is mostly at the poles where the inclination of the radiant energy source is so sharp that there isn’t much energy to absorb anyway. Anyway, removing the ice would expose water that is warmer than the ice which would then radiate more heat to space, cooling the planet and…. see above.
Climatologist; Blasphemer! Unbeliever! The temperature HAS to rise! I have reports! I have measurements! I have computer simulations! I have committees! United Nations committees! Grant money! Billions and billions and billions! I CAN’T be wrong, I will never explain it! Billions! And the carbon trading! Trillions in carbon trading!
Physicist; (gasp!) how much grant money?
Climatologist; Billions…. Want some?
Physicist; Uhm…
Climatologist; BILLIONS AND BILLIONS!
Climatologist; Hi. I used to be a physicist. When I started to understand the danger the world was in though, I decided to do the right thing and become a climatologist. Let me explain the greenhouse effect to you…

F. Ross
Reply to  davidmhoffer
October 4, 2014 1:28 pm

Good one!
🙂

Jeff Mitchell
Reply to  davidmhoffer
October 4, 2014 9:08 pm

Outstanding! 🙂

Nigel S
Reply to  davidmhoffer
October 5, 2014 3:56 am

Hi, I’m Troy McClure, you may remember me from such films as ‘The Physicist sees The Light!’ (aka ‘The Contrabulous Fabtraption of Professor Horatio Hufnagel’.

David Ball
Reply to  Nigel S
October 5, 2014 7:34 am

Other Troy McClure classics; “Smoke Yourself Thin.” and “Get Some Self-confidence, Stupid!!!”

ConTrari
October 4, 2014 10:41 am

Protective equipment, that’s fine. But the hockey stick is offensive,

dp
Reply to  ConTrari
October 4, 2014 10:56 am

It is used to make a point.

Bart
Reply to  dp
October 4, 2014 11:18 am

It certainly is!

Bart
Reply to  ConTrari
October 4, 2014 11:38 am

Wrong nest. It certainly is!

Stephen Brown
October 4, 2014 4:15 pm

Kilimanjaro has three peaks, Kibo, Mawenzi and Shira. Kibo is the highest at 19,341′ ASL.
In 1963, as a young member of the Luanshya High School Kilimanjaro Expedition from Northern Rhodesia (now Zambia) I stood on that peak and signed the book buried in a cairn on the summit. Ball-point and fountain pens didn’t function as the ink was frozen, only pencils worked. We could also see the fragments of a DC3 aeroplane crash on distant Mawenzi which happened on 18 May 1955.
On the way down our guides took a detour to show us the carcass of a leopard, long frozen in a then-retreating tongue of ice and which had only recently (in 1962) become visible. Our African guides told us, even then, that the ice was disappearing as fast as the forest on the lower slopes was being cleared for cultivation. They knew that snow never fell on Kilimanjaro. They knew that the ice simply formed from water vapour. They knew that when the amount of water vapour fell that the amount of ice declined.
Why did it take so long for ‘science’ to ‘discover’ this fact?

mpainter
Reply to  Stephen Brown
October 4, 2014 6:17 pm

Your guides used their powers of observation, a practice that is strange and unfathomable to many climatologists, whose brains are over warmed by a ferment of theory and more theory.

charles nelson
October 4, 2014 4:23 pm

Like his colleague Michael Mann, Ben must surely now be aware that every time he stands in front of an audience in a lecture theatre there must be a proportion of those people who believe him to be a failed scientist. If he is at all human, his own self doubt has already started to gnaw at his ego. Love it.

David Ball
Reply to  charles nelson
October 4, 2014 6:30 pm

Being wrong never stopped Paul Ehrlich.

Charles Nelson
Reply to  David Ball
October 4, 2014 7:16 pm

Yes, but ridicule hurts the narcissist in a particularly intense way!

David Ball
Reply to  David Ball
October 5, 2014 7:31 am

Attention is what the narcissist seeks. Positive or negative.

AJB
October 4, 2014 9:08 pm

Seems to me that if Dr. Koonin is going up against Ben Santer he needs to “put on the foil”.

Editor
October 4, 2014 9:34 pm

How will Ben Santer’s meal be dressed/marinated? The warmists should all be eating crow soon…

Questing Vole
October 4, 2014 9:58 pm

How easy would it be to track Santer’s past students still working in “climate science” to see how far his influence might have spread?

George Tetley
October 5, 2014 3:12 am

Obliviously when idiots go to school they do not attend history classes !

Richard M
October 5, 2014 7:18 am

I think is quite interesting (karma?) that Santer et al (2011) can be used to falsify climate models. The 17 year period they produce as the required length of no warming to achieve a 95% confidence level that climate models have failed is very useful when used in conjunction with the current 18+ years of no warming.
“Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global‐mean tropospheric temperature.”
Given we are now over 18 years that should mean human effects are inconsequential. At least that would be the case in any real scientific field.

Sam Kazman
Reply to  Richard M
October 5, 2014 8:10 am

Perhaps Santer himself should be invited to (in his words) “constructively collaborate” in disproving the models.

Kitefreak
October 7, 2014 10:34 am

Jeff Alberts:
“an unusual manifestation of internal variability in the observations ”
What an incredibly telling sentence!
———————————-
It’s good isn’t it? You only resort to that sort of total BS statement when there is no scientific straw left to grasp.
And we pay these people?