Via The GWPF Global Warming Pause Comes Of Age
The Earth’s temperature has “plateaued” and there has been no global warming for at least the last 18 years, says Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at the University of Alabama/Huntsville. “That’s basically a fact. There’s not much to comment on,” Christy said when CNSNews.com asked him to remark on the lack of global warming for nearly two decades as of October 1st. –Barbara Hollingsworth, CBS News, 30 September 2014
Figure 1. RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies (dark blue) and trend (thick bright blue line), October 1996 to August 2014, showing no trend for 17 years 11 months.
More on the “The pause” here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/04/global-temperature-update-no-global-warming-for-17-years-11-months
What will the Warming Pause do next? Get a job? Go on a gap year? Maybe go to college and rack up some proper student debt. Who knows, but it’s worth celebrating the good news that the planet’s temperatures are not accelerating to thermageddon. –Josh, Bishop Hill 1 October 2014
The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant. –Phil Jones, University of East Anglia 5 July 2005
Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried. -Phil Jones, University of East Anglia 7 May 2009
2014 will probably be in the top five warmest, but at the moment it will probably not turn out to be warmer than 2010. It is impossible for it to beat 2010 by a statistically significant margin, even if we define that as only one standard deviation above the decadal mean. Even if 2014 does beat 2010 it will only be by a statistically insignificant margin and well within the inter-annual error bars. In all probability 2014 will continue the global surface temperature standstill in a statistically perfect manner. When will the global surface annual temperature start to rise out of the error bars of the past 18 years? –David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Forum, 28 September 2014
It’s fair to say that this pause is something of an embarrassment to many in the climate research community, since their computer models failed to indicate that any such thing could happen. Just how long the temperature pause must last before it would falsify the more catastrophic versions of man-made climate change obviously remains an open question for many researchers. For the time being, most are betting that it will get real hot real fast when the hiatus ends. –Ronald Bailey, Reason Online, 9 September 2014
Former United Kingdom environment secretary Owen Paterson launched an attack against the “wicked green blob,” saying policies to stop global warming might do more harm than good. “There has not been a temperature increase now for probably 18 years, some people say 26 years,” Paterson told an audience at the Conservative party conference over weekend. “So the pause is old enough to vote, the pause is old enough to join the army, the pause is old enough to pay its taxes.” –Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, 29 September 2014
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I keep hearing this top 5 hottest ever meme. In 2014, I have been all over the US and 6 other countries in south america, the middle east, and south east asia to boot. In all of those places I do not remember a single heat wave or unusual temperature. I do not remember reading about any unusual heat waves. On the contrary, what I remember about 2014 was a lot of unusual cold. So i humbly ask, where on earth was all of this heat to make it the fifth hottest ever? I will bet that most of it happened in places where people don’t actually live
Antarctica…where one station with high temps got smeared over half the continent.
It did not happen on the satellite reconstructions. The others use homegenization techniques that look spiffy mathematically but raise lots of questions physically.
Here are the adjustments to the xxx record broken down by month.
from this
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/23/ushcn-monthly-temperature-adjustments/
I am not sure I understand why the same thermometer reads too high in the summer and too low in the winter. You can also see the clear bias the adjustments have.
and here you see GISS adjustments for the same year changing as the datasets age.
from this
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/03/giss-hockey-stick-adjustments/
I am not sure I understand the physical property the adjustments are reflecting when the resulting temperature is a function of when the dataset is released.
Personally, I don’t know what the long term temperature trend is, because there are so many different reconstructions and they change every year and all the non satellite ones seem to get most of their slope from math. I don’t know if its a good technique or not, but whenever they say we have a record, I guess they are quoting from a ground station/ocean station reconstruction that has subtracted a few degrees from the 30’s and added a bit to the current. It also could be a convenient artifact of the math. As time goes by the homogenization algorithms change today’s temperature. So today they can say its the hottest temperature ever, then next year, that temp will have been cooled by math, so they can again say this year’s temp is the hottest.
I just can’t get my head around the fact that all the climate studies are based on these temperature records. If the adjustments are wrong, is there any global warming?
Sorry the “xxx” record was the USHCN. I’m not a scientist, just a software developer (with an Aerospace Engineering degree for some reason). I’ll be the first to admit I know where the two satellite records come from, but all the ground station based records confuse the heck out of me. Are there separate groups of ground stations? I think the US has 2 or 3, then there is the MET and the aussies have at least one, and a whole bunch of other countries too. Then there are ocean stations… i think. I think a lot of ocean temperature readings are taking by ships as they cross the ocean, and I think there are some buoys possibly. I know we now have argo buoys. I would love for someone to point me somewhere where I can get clarification on this mess.
I know you can get into trouble selecting specific time ranges but… just look at the raw data from 1970 forward. I see a horizontal line for the average. No warming for the last 44 years?
There is one thing that has an upward linear trend that no amount of homogenization, manipulation or torture will change: the number of excuses for the “pause”.
In fact charting out the excuses vs time shows a real nice ‘hockey stick’.
I tried to explain this fact to a true believer friend of mine. He simply refused to believe that global warming stopped 18 years ago.I showed him graphs and the ipcc ar5 report and more.
Then he spouted off that there were a few of “the hottest months ever on record!” Then he jumped to sea ice (I then showed him Antarctic ice is largest on record) then he jumped to polar bear population(which I showed him were largest now ever on record) then he jumped to sea level rise etc….I finally gave up and told him he is free to believe whatever religion he wants.
I guess when you have been taught something as fact your entire life,its very difficult to counteract the misinformation. Instead of being happy that humanity, at least at this point, seems not be in imminenet danger,he seemed very dejected. Last year my friend and his girlfriend gave up eating meat because of the co2 and methane cows and farm animals produced.
Imagine years of sacrifice,time and money spent on cause you thought noble, only to find out it’s all just another government cash/power grab. I almost feel sorry for some of these folks whose intentions were pure…….almost 😉
Yep, it enough to make a believers head explode!
Don’t you sometimes wish the temps would do something? Tracking the pause is kinda like watching paint dry, but worse.
All children up to 17 years don’t know what global warming is. It’s a rare and exciting event. We could play with virtual warming. 🙂
Global warming in the UK can now do the following
• Vote in local and general elections
• Stand for election as an MP, local councillor or mayor
• Serve on a jury
• Be tried in a magistrate’s court, and go to prison if found guilty of a criminal offence
• Make a will
• Pawn stuff in a pawn shop
• Get married without parental permission
• Buy cigarettes, rolling tobacco and cigarette papers
• Buy alcoholic drinks in a pub or a bar
• Buy fireworks
• View, rent or buy an 18-rated film
• Open a bank account
http://www.mumsnet.com/teenagers/legal-rights-at-18
[Rather, the “Pause” in Global Warming in the UK can now do the following. Global Warming in the UK is 350 years old! .mod]
The Mindset List is assembled each year by Ron Nief and Tom McBride at Beloit College. It was initially created as a reminder to faculty to be wary of dated references and quickly became a catalog of the rapidly changing perception of each new generation as they make an important transition.
Here is a link to the current list for students entering college this year and who will graduate in 2018:
http://www.beloit.edu/mindset/2018/
Amazingly enough, it does not mention that there has been no global warming within the lifetime of the students even though they have constantly been bombarded with the “fact” of global warming.
I commented on it. I’m sure others did / will as well. That list is usually quite entertaining.
Young People Today don’t know what Global Warming is. When I were a lad …
There’s a Four Yorkshire men sketch in there somewhere.
Betting?
What, exactly are they betting? “Betting” implies risking a stake, having skin in the game. These clowns are not betting anything.
That is the fundamental problem with all of this global warming bullshit. There is a huge upside from telling scary stories – it gets you lots of grants and cushy public sector “research” jobs. It gets you personal fame and no small fortune at a time when others have been struggling with a recession. It gets you political power and smug authority to call for the imprisonment and execution(!) of your rivals.
There is no downside. If you’re wrong about the scary stories you tell, you just keep piling up other people’s money until the gravy train is finally run off its tracks, but that will take decades. By then you will have accumulated quite a lot of ill gotten gains.
Betting? Ha. If those asshats were actually betting – their own money or their own lives instead of other people’s – then they would be a damn sight more circumspect about the stories they tell.
They are betting their jobs…(there may be a sudden rush on tar, feathers, pitchforks and torches, so lay in a supply now).
Spot on!
Sounds like you are describing a ‘leech’
+1
…real hot…”
How hot is “real hot”.
…real fast…”
When is real fast? I’d like to know the year.
Vague. Empty. Sophistry.
“Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.”
G.K. Chesterton
We wrote in 2002 the following statements that have proved true to date:
“Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
“The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
http://www.apegga.org/Members/Publications/peggs/WEB11_02/kyoto_pt.htm
[PEGG debate, reprinted at their request by several professional journals, the Globe and Mail and la Presse in translation, by Baliunas, Patterson and MacRae]
Dont worry soon the cry will be that Man is somehow keeping the climate from changing enough! It will be a catastrophe!!
bingo!
How did the Roman Warming period end? We know it ended and we know the Middles Ages Warming Period also ended. Do we think that after years of warm weather it suddenly became cooler – in one year? In one day?
My guess is that it took a few years for the new direction to get established. Maybe when the earth’s average temperature reversed directions there was a period where the temperature stayed the same for a few years. Say 18 years.
Slack tide-like?
This is only going to worsen for AGW enthusiast going forward as the temperature trend actually starts a decline later this decade.
THE CRITERIA
Solar Flux avg. sub 90
Solar Wind avg. sub 350 km/sec
AP index avg. sub 5.0
Cosmic ray counts north of 6500 counts per minute
Total Solar Irradiance off .15% or more
EUV light average 0-105 nm sub 100 units (or off 100% or more) and longer UV light emissions around 300 nm off by several percent.
IMF around 4.0 nt or lower.
The above solar parameter averages following several years of sub solar activity in general which commenced in year 2005..
IF , these average solar parameters are the rule going forward for the remainder of this decade expect global average temperatures to fall by -.5C, with the largest global temperature declines occurring over the high latitudes of N.H. land areas.
The decline in temperatures should begin to take place within six months after the ending of the maximum of solar cycle 24.
NOTE 1- What mainstream science is missing in my opinion is two fold, in that solar variability is greater than thought, and that the climate system of the earth is more sensitive to that solar variability.
NOTE 2- LATEST RESEARCH SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING:
A. Ozone concentrations in the lower and middle stratosphere are in phase with the solar cycle, while in anti phase with the solar cycle in the upper stratosphere.
B. Certain bands of UV light are more important to ozone production then others.
C. UV light bands are in phase with the solar cycle with much more variability, in contrast to visible light and near infrared (NIR) bands which are in anti phase with the solar cycle with much LESS variability.
© 2014 Southwest Weather, Inc
About the only thing that could save the climagheddonist now would be a spectacularly large El-Nino.
If that happens, some of them just might keep their jobs until it’s time to retire.
It’s no wonder that they are so worried that the world is not warming.
It seems to me that it’s widely accepted that CO2 lags temperature by about 400 years, so unfortunately that means none of here today will see the day CO2 begins to fall, oh about 382 years or so.
Probably wishing they could have switched the name from global warming to climate change sooner.
Of course climate change is the stupidest name in the world to give global warming, Climate has continually changed and no one is offering a theory of a climate continuing unchanged until the universe collapses. Debating “Climate Change” then becomes like debating whether people die.
The odds that the computer models are unreliable estimators of the global temperature rise exponentially with each year that the hiatus continues. No wonder so many climatologists are scrambling to explain it.
Don’t see this anywhere—-The Arctic is shrinking [due to Global Warming, of course] and the walrus are suffering…and it’s YOUR FAULT…
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/10/01/melting-arctic-ice-leave-35000-walrus-stranded-in-northwest-alaska/?intcmp=latestnews
I didn’t know Fox News was into AGW – thought they knew bettter.
The invariability of climate? I doubt the yahoos would like that title.
Santer, et al., 2011:
“Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.”
Let’s all take a moment to thank Ben Santer, Tom Wigley, Susan Soloman Tom Karl, and others for confirming what many of here have long suspected: Humans are having an immesureable effect on global-mean tropospheric temperature.
“Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale”
B. D. Santer, C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, S. Solomon, N. P. Gillett, D. Ivanova, T. R. Karl, J. R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner and F. J. Wentz.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016263/abstract
Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
And yet climate alarmists continue insist we do something NOW to fight a problem, global warming, that hasn’t been in evidence for nearly 20 years. That’s because “climate change” isn’t science for them; it’s a religious faith, in which Man is to be punished for his sins against the Earth. Empirical evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.
18 years of no statistically significant change in RSS LTTA.
Hey, Earth . . . did you just roll the dice for 18 years? You did, didn’t you?
John
When I mention the pause to climate alatmists some point to the big spike in 98 and claim that skews the trend. Can someone of a statistical persuasion tell me what happens to the trend if you exclude that outlier?
You can’t exclude one outlier. The el nino of 1998 happened. It can’t unhappen, nor can any other event that occurred in the past.
The trend from 2000 is exactly the same as it is from late 1996 and does not include 1998. Show that to the alarmists next time. It shows that 1998 has no affect on the trend. This is because cool years before and after 1998 cancel it out from a trend perspective.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.8/plot/rss/from:2000/trend/plot/rss/from:1996.8/trend
Despite a wet August, we’ve enjoyed a wonderfully mild, dry and sunny September here in the UK – and it looks set to continue into October. Very similar pattern to mid-September 2013’s weather (starting 17th); gentle breeze, windows and doors open – no turbines whirring, loads of imported electricity. Frankly, it’s all been rather lovely. Our skeptic WUWT community elsewhere in the world haven’t been so lucky (especially the late summer cold experienced in North America). I expect the MSN headlines to now read “UK first nation blamed for ending pause” or “global climate change disruptive warming resurected – UK to blame”.
Who’s hacked the CET? It seems they can’t hide the decline any more!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif
Link in article reads ” CBS News, 30 September 2014″ but takes me to cnsnews.com 30 September 2014
The “warmunists” have a goal: They want to strip power from large corporations with regulations and higher taxes and increase the power of the central government.
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A tax on corporate energy use or Co2 emissions is their obvious goal.
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Since there is no visible climate crisis now (never let a crisis go to waste), and the hole in the ozone layer / acid rain etc. didn’t seem to scare people enough, they’ve invented a new crisis coming an unspecified number of years in the future.
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So if enough people believe a crisis is coming in the future, why can’t they believe 18 years with no warming is just a short-term “correction” during a long term trend (like a correction in a stock bull market)?
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People so gullible that they believe the future can be predicted (future climate or anything else), then they are gullible enough to believe 18 years without warming doesn’t mean anything.
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As usual, every environmental “crisis” requires everyone else to do as they say to “save the Earth” (that part never changes).
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This invisible crisis was called “global warming” until the leftist computer gamers with advanced science degrees (falsely described as “scientists” using computer models) realized the warming had stopped for quite a few years.
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So they created a new term: “Climate Change” … which really makes no sense, since Earth’s climate has always been changing … for 4.5 billion years so far.
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Use the old term “global warming” to a leftist, and you will immediately be corrected to “climate change”.
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Tell a leftist Earth’s climate has been changing for 4.5 billion years, and you will be told this time is different.
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The only thing I’ve found to silence leftists here in Michigan (USA), for a moment (after I use the term “global warming”, and am “corrected” to say “climate change”), is to remind the person Michigan used to be under one or two miles of ice, so our climate must have been warming long before manmade CO2 began to increase.
.
That actually makes leftists think for a moment
(and you know how rare that is!)