From the Spirit of Mawson “ship of fools” University of New South Wales –
Climate detectives reveal handprint of human caused climate change in Australia
Australia’s hottest year on record was almost impossible without man-made climate change
Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 along with the accompanying droughts, heat waves and record-breaking seasons of that year was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming.
New research from ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) researchers and colleagues, over five different Australian papers in a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has highlighted the powerful influence of global warming on Australia’s climate.
“We often talk about the fingerprint of human-caused climate change when we look at extreme weather patterns,” said Prof David Karoly, an ARCCSS researcher with the University of Melbourne.
“This research across four different papers goes well beyond that. If we were climate detectives then Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 wasn’t just a smudged fingerprint at the scene of the crime, it was a clear and unequivocal handprint showing the impact of human caused global warming.”
In 2013, heat records fell like dominoes. Australia had its hottest day on record, its hottest month on record, its hottest summer on record, its hottest spring on record and then rounded it off with the hottest year on record.
According to the research papers presented in BAMS, the impact of climate change significantly increased the chances of record heat events in 2013. Looking back over the observational record the researchers found global warming over Australia (see attached graphic): doubled the chance of the most intense heat waves, tripled the likelihood of heatwave events, made extreme summer temperature across Australia five time more likely increased the chance of hot dry drought-like conditions seven times made hot spring temperatures across Australia 30 times more likely.
But perhaps most importantly, it showed the record hot year of 2013 across Australia was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming. At its most conservative, the science showed the heat of 2013 was made 2000 times more likely by global warming.
“When it comes to what helped cause our hottest year on record, human-caused climate change is no longer a prime suspect, it is the guilty party,” said ARCCSS Australian National University researcher Dr Sophie Lewis.
“Too often we talk about climate change impacts as if they are far in the future. This research shows they are here, now.”
The extreme year of 2013 is just the latest peak in a trend over the observational record that has seen increasing bushfire days, the record-breaking warming of oceans around Australia, the movement of tropical species into temperate zones and the shifting of rain bearing storm tracks further south and away from some of our most important agricultural zones.
“The most striking aspect of the extreme heat of 2013 and its impacts is that this is only at the very beginning of the time when we are expected to experience the first impacts of human-caused climate change,” said Dr Sarah Perkins an ARCCSS researcher with the University of New South Wales.
“If we continue to put carbon into our atmosphere at the currently accelerating rate, years like 2013 will quickly be considered normal and the impacts of future extremes will be well beyond anything modern society has experienced.”
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“…In 2013, heat records fell like dominoes. Australia had its hottest day on record, its hottest month on record, its hottest summer on record, its hottest spring on record and then rounded it off with the hottest year on record…”
Mandelbrot and Wallis demonstrated the persistence of patterns of rainfall, which probably extends to temperature as well. In a sense these various records are a single data point. The climate change people seem not to have heard of such.
The hottest meme is dealt with here.
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/climate-trivia-headlines-and-the-boms-unscientific-obession-with-hottest-ever-records/
Jo’s been all over the BOM’s “case” and their fraudulent manipulation of Australia’s historical temperature records for years now.
She has a growing body of dissenting scientists and the like accumulating alongside her.
Being people with genuine concerns at what the BOM has done and continues to do to historical records, they politely refuse to refer to it as fraud.
But their independant conclusions are inescapable.
Peer reviewed worlds best practice of homogenisation of weather stations around Australia is nothing less than fraud.
The world is just starting to wake up that they’ve been manipulated by world’s best practice.
The Australian bureau of meteorology doesn’t like it and suspect it’s because of Jo and her efforts of getting snippets of what they have been doing into mainstream media.
She’s had a flurry of postive press from the Murdoch owned Australian newspaper over the last couple of weeks that has had the BOM jumping at shadows.
I just wish more of the mainstream media would start taking notice of just what she is exposing.
In the words of one who like the rest of us can see the bleeding obvious,
“It has been said before. It will be said again. The adjustments always seem to add to global warming.”
Who was that masked man.
The biggest question faced by skeptics still remains.
How do we stop them?
Yeah but you guys are happy to use the BOM whenever there’s cold temp records.
That’s because the BOM has their thumb on the scale to keep things warm. If even their adjustments can’t prevent a cold temp record, it must really be cold. <.<
“The Australian” published my letter January 21, 2013 under heading “A reluctance to address fresh climate indicators”. My concluding sentence was this: “The scandalous “adjustments” since 2008 to official historical temperature records, here, in New Zealand, Britain and the US, ought to be the subject of Senate inquiries.” I think we are now getting some traction thanks to people like Jennifer Morohasy.
It was April and the Aboriginals in a remote part of Northern Australia asked their new elder if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was an elder in a modern community he had never been taught the old secrets.
When he looked at the sky he couldn’t tell what the winter was going to be like.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of he tribe should collect firewood to be prepared.
But being a practical leader, after several days he had an idea.
He walked out to the telephone booth on the highway, called the Bureau of Meteorology and asked,
‘Is the coming winter in this area going to be cold?’
The meteorologist responded, ‘It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold..’
So the elder went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.
A week later he called the Bureau of Meteorology again..
‘Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?’
The meteorologist again replied, ‘Yes, it’s going to be a very cold winter.’
The elder again went back to his community and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.
Two weeks later the elder called the Bureau again.
‘Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?’ he asked
‘Absolutely,’ the man replied. ‘It’s looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever.’
‘How can you be so sure?’ the elder asked.
The weatherman replied,
‘Our satellites have reported that the Aboriginals in the north are collecting firewood like crazy, and that’s always a sure sign.’
Cool zombie hand-print graphic. Very fashionable since zombies are “in” this year. 😉
“In 2013, heat records fell like dominoes. Australia had its hottest day on record, its hottest month on record, its hottest summer on record, its hottest spring on record and then rounded it off with the hottest year on record.”
___________________________
Alas, 2013 was also the year Lord Monckton chose to tour Australia to warn against the dangers of climate alarmism. Timing is everything.
So… the Monckton Effect is the opposite of the Gore Effect?
Makes sense, I suppose.
I vaguely recall that Australia is 5% of the surface of the Earth. That’s called GLOBAL warming!
Yes. And a cold winter in the USA in 2013-2014 is mere weather.
Is the Southern Hemisphere even warming?
well apart from a few 43.9c days here in Victoria this summer, its been rather cool, I have a fire going right now, though I did manage 3 nights prior without one.
err thats since late may early june.
in sth aus I never lit a fire before late june and never after august ended.
whatever Bom says
you buy your own thermometer and believe what it says , not them.
CLAIM: “Australia’s Hottest Year Was 1878”
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/australias-hottest-year-was-1878/
& the captain of the ship of fools knows the appropriate meaning of ‘virtually’ to use on his handprint claims is the 2nd one, but implies using the 1st meaning in order to bump up the appearance of certainty to his ‘hand print’ claims.
& yawn . . . .
John
& or ‘her claims’ as the case may be . . . .
John
It was much hotter in Bourke (Western N.S.W.) in the the 1890’s than in 2013, but the old records have been deleted.
From memory I spent much of Ausdie 2013 in a swimming pool or down the beach having fun. Bring it on 🙂
proof you can claim anything when you leave out stations….cherry pick stations….adjust stations…and apply the right algorithm
But isn’t that what they mean when they say “man-made global warming”?
Is it me or does the most biased work come out of austrailia? Seems to me…the theory deals with the planet warming not just austrailia. If the world is not warming and presently it is not then it is Id think that even if you still think we are in a warming trend then austrailias current temp must be in large part to other climatic shifts.
UWA, UNSW, wherever Cook is from. Yes, I’ve previously complained to the Education Min that our unis don’t actually do science any more. While we didn’t create Lewandowski, we allowed him to practise here.
In the US it seems to be more in pockets. Around Mann, for example.
University of Queensland if you don’t mind. Though he did have an interaction with Lew at UWA i believe.
Randy
a number of our public institutions are infected with the rent seeking that accompanys CAGW. The worst is UNSW (England Turney Pitman etc) followed by Melb university (Karoly Gergis etc) followed by CSIRO (who used to employ the master propagandist Nic Stokes) and the supposed chief scientist (Chubb) and then a group of morally hollow public servants at BOM. And then not forgetting the flag bearer Flannery at whatever institution he’s now hiding in.
Not a single independent scientist or for that matter an independent mind amongst them.
Makes you cry for the next generation of scientists to come
The next generation will have to stay in line in order to be admitted to the fraternity. I wonder if a skeptic could pass their oral exams for a PhD degree? Only after getting the degree can they hope to break ranks. Further, if the “data” they all use to do their work has been pre-adjusted and manipulated, what chance is there that they will have an epiphany? It seems to me that it will be up to other disciplines like astrophysics or similar to begin to convince the “climate scientists”.
If they hadn’t calculated the warming no one would have known.
The Australian 2013 heat has been debunked by numerous folks.
Thanks Jimbo, I did not see that you provided several links to the debunking of the alleged record heat in Australia in 2013.
2013 was the year the BoM introduced a new “method” for calculating new temperatures. The BoM also introduced new “angrier” map colours which then had to be retracted. As you say, completely debunked.
“Carbon Footprint” then “Carbon Handprint” and now:
I’ am sure we can guess which finger equals “Carbon Fingerprint”.
Uh, and I’m also thinking Josh might want to be a little careful with that “Carbon Fingerprint” cartoon.
/grin
I’m more worried about the “Methane footprint” with the copious amount of BS being produced nowadays.
These data manipulators are tireless! It seems they’d be embarrassed having to adjust the data into submission year after year, so they could act like we’re always experiencing the hottest most turbulent weather ever. The rest of us have caught on, just waiting for the true believers to catch up.
You can get anything you so desire if you fiddle the records. Jennifer Marohasy research on the Burke (NSW, Australia) figures alone says enough. B of M says homogenised figures is the world standard! I have personal records which show that the summers, rather than hotter, are a lot softer than 40 years ago.
Anyone have the name of the magic book that includes the precise definitions of qualitative terms they are using in their “research”? Exactly what is the cut-off between a hot day and a normal day?
Also, will climate change also significantly increase the chances for heat records in 2014 or did this only apply to 2013? Why didn’t this apply to any year prior to 2013? And is the definition of climate now the average of weather over just a few months? Did climate change also cause the below average temperatures elsewhere on planet Earth that counterbalanced Australia’s record heat?
Their “research” is a true curiosity deserving of its own scientific inquiry.
From the graphic:
Something is definitely lost in translation here.
I think they meant
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/hiding-something-bom-throws-out-bourkes-hot-historic-data-changes-long-cooling-trend-to-warming/
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/bom-homogenisation-in-deniliquin-creates-discontinuities-and-changes-trends/
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/bom-finally-explains-cooling-changed-to-warming-trends-because-stations-might-have-moved/
No, Virtually is a weasel word, since virtually means almost, the correct headline is in fact:
WITHOUT CLIMATE CHANGE the hot temperatures of 2013 were not impossible
Such is the semantic meaning as written.
BTW this slight of hand is done by comparing a one year result with a statistical long term average ignoring the long rise from the little ice age, since we are at a optimal ( well not quite as optimal as the holocene climate optimum) peak right now after a rather deadly cold period one needs to take account of that when calculating probability, temperature is a random walk, each throw of the dice is NOT independent of the last, hence the probability sums that assume independence of each trial are not applicable. In fact with temperature up 0.8 deg or so on the little ice age some broken records on the high side are in fact highly probable it’s a random walk from a high base temperature, one would decidely NOT expect broken records on the low side as in some recent northern winters and the Antarctic. This is statistical bullsh1-tango, typical for Karoly who of course was right royally embarassed by Steve McKintyre a couple of years ago, his paper lasted about 5 days, seems he hasn’t learned from then.
Five fingers and five talking points are all they can handle anyway. That includes writing on the hand to remember them.
Can someone confirm when the records actually began? Australia has a relatively short history of collecting accurate temperatures and this will vary city by city. so are the records 200 years old? 100 years old? 50 years old?
Tonyb
The “official” records began at 1910 so that all the record temps from the 1890s and 1900s could go to the forgettery. Like the time the guy who recorded temps for 20 years went to work on a Sunday to read his official thermometer in his Stevo Screen, wrote 125F!! and underlined it twice. That never happened. Like the 6 week heat wave in Bourke never happened either. The actual hottest day was a forecast in 2013 (the actual day came in 4-5C short of the modelling but it’s the forecast that counted).
So before that was 2012 the hottest year? If not then shut hell up.
Are you serious? You think every year has to be warmer than the last, otherwise the possibility that man made climate change is real, is all rubbish? I think you better do some reading
Trusting the IPCC to do science is much like asking the US Congress to certify virginity
More BS fodder for the Chicken Littles at the ABC, Fairfax newspapers and the Guardian rag.
May I suggest that someone with photo altering skills change the hand image by folding down the index finger and the ring and little fingers and then send the result back to its source at USW(?)