From the Spirit of Mawson “ship of fools” University of New South Wales –
Climate detectives reveal handprint of human caused climate change in Australia
Australia’s hottest year on record was almost impossible without man-made climate change
Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 along with the accompanying droughts, heat waves and record-breaking seasons of that year was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming.
New research from ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) researchers and colleagues, over five different Australian papers in a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has highlighted the powerful influence of global warming on Australia’s climate.
“We often talk about the fingerprint of human-caused climate change when we look at extreme weather patterns,” said Prof David Karoly, an ARCCSS researcher with the University of Melbourne.
“This research across four different papers goes well beyond that. If we were climate detectives then Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 wasn’t just a smudged fingerprint at the scene of the crime, it was a clear and unequivocal handprint showing the impact of human caused global warming.”
In 2013, heat records fell like dominoes. Australia had its hottest day on record, its hottest month on record, its hottest summer on record, its hottest spring on record and then rounded it off with the hottest year on record.
According to the research papers presented in BAMS, the impact of climate change significantly increased the chances of record heat events in 2013. Looking back over the observational record the researchers found global warming over Australia (see attached graphic): doubled the chance of the most intense heat waves, tripled the likelihood of heatwave events, made extreme summer temperature across Australia five time more likely increased the chance of hot dry drought-like conditions seven times made hot spring temperatures across Australia 30 times more likely.
But perhaps most importantly, it showed the record hot year of 2013 across Australia was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming. At its most conservative, the science showed the heat of 2013 was made 2000 times more likely by global warming.
“When it comes to what helped cause our hottest year on record, human-caused climate change is no longer a prime suspect, it is the guilty party,” said ARCCSS Australian National University researcher Dr Sophie Lewis.
“Too often we talk about climate change impacts as if they are far in the future. This research shows they are here, now.”
The extreme year of 2013 is just the latest peak in a trend over the observational record that has seen increasing bushfire days, the record-breaking warming of oceans around Australia, the movement of tropical species into temperate zones and the shifting of rain bearing storm tracks further south and away from some of our most important agricultural zones.
“The most striking aspect of the extreme heat of 2013 and its impacts is that this is only at the very beginning of the time when we are expected to experience the first impacts of human-caused climate change,” said Dr Sarah Perkins an ARCCSS researcher with the University of New South Wales.
“If we continue to put carbon into our atmosphere at the currently accelerating rate, years like 2013 will quickly be considered normal and the impacts of future extremes will be well beyond anything modern society has experienced.”
And from the AP:
“Studies fault warming in much of 2013 wild weather”
Scientists looking at 16 cases of wild weather around the world last year see the fingerprints of man-made global warming on more than half of them.
http://www.sfgate.com/news/science/article/Studies-fault-warming-in-much-of-2013-wild-weather-5787837.php
If only M. Night Shyamalan could grab on to this climate stuff, he might revive his career…….”I See Global Warming”
Meanwhile, across the Great Southern Ocean, a continent stretches its icy tentacles northward.
It’s the planet arseprint.
There is something that leaves a print on the sand when you sit, and it has two hemispheres, like Earth. Maybe it is a more accurate image, just saying.
Wouldn’t have been possible without removing a lot of historical records, either
Or that the fact that the “reliable “historical record in Australia more or less starts in 1910. So when folks like the BOM manipulate it and other claim New Records with it, it actually is not saying much…
This sentence in the original article gives the game away: “The record-breaking temperatures experienced in Australia fall entirely outside the bounds of natural climate variability estimated using a suite of state-of-the-art climate models.” So they’re still in garbage-in-garbage-out mode.
early AM ABC radio
falling over emselves to get it to air
Korolly the Bast*rd, in full smug mode.
put me off food for a while
and yeah models
AND theyre using ONLY 10 15 yrs prior
cos if they used the 30s they look the cretins and liars they are!
They know that Australia is really heating up. They used the BOM to do all their temperature homoginizations and adjustments until their figures were juussstt right.
sarc off
That makes it “man-made”, right?
Here in the upper hemisphere we call it “Mann-made”
Ever since the ACORN data set was introduced in early 2012, Australia has had records set for a day, month, season and year. When you reduce hundreds of stations down to just 112 and homogenize those temperatures, you can make up anything.
To paraphrase an old ecomic quote;
If you torture the figures, they’ll confess to anything.
Key word “virtually”.
That means GCMs at work
I agree it is definitely man-made climate change as in changing the temperature records to make it warmer when in fact it is getting cooler.
So, a colder than normal year is weather but a warmer than normal year is climate; got it.
Or, as I was informed a few days ago by a True Believer:
“No true scientist attributes any one weather event to climate change. However, all climate events are worse because of fossil fuels”.
And they don’t understand why it’s difficult to take any of this seriously…
Seems to me that the sum of a string of zeroes should equal zero. But that’s in the real world.
It’s not even a case of warmer weather / climate. It’s outright fabrication. The hottest evah summer: 2012-13 was a cold, wet summer in which SYD rarely touched 30C, interspersed by 2 hot days a week apart. Most of the time it was cool and drizzly.
For all the UHI, even the hot day (only a record at Observatory Hill, not elsewhere) was only 0.16C higher than 1970 and the rest of the country couldn’t manage even a recent record.
That was what passed as a blazing summer. During the “unprecedented heat wave” stories, we had 5 days that peaked at 29.5C!
These people know they won’t be called on BS so they just make it up entirely and if someone does notice they scream “Abbott666 / Murdoch666 is a denier!”
It’s the same as NASA’s “hottest August evah” announcement. Have a look at 1998 on a chart of any temp set. The RSS fell sharply this August! Doesn’t make any difference.
Here’s some inconvenient facts Andrew
Sydney in summer 2012-13: A warm summer with a wet end
Sydney Observatory Hill recorded an average maximum temperature of 26.6 °C during summer, 1.0 °C above the historical average, with above average maximum temperatures throughout the city.
Days were generally warmer than average during the first half of summer, including temperatures 1.8 °C above normal during January, but closer to average during February when rainfall was higher.
There were 8 days when temperatures reached at least 30 °C, average for Sydney, but 25 days that reached at least 28 °C (average 16). In western Sydney, Richmond recorded 18 days greater than 35 °C, the most since 2005.
The warmest period was during the first half of January, when a large scale heatwave impacted much of Australia, described in Special Climate Statement 43. Temperatures reached 42.3 °C at Sydney Observatory Hill on the 8th, its fifth highest temperature on record, before setting a new record maximum temperature of 45.8 °C on the 18th.
Fourteen stations across the city reached at least 45 °C on this day, with the coolest (Terrey Hills) recording 43.9 °C and the warmest (Penrith) 46.5 °C; all seven stations with long-term records were at least 0.5 °C warmer than the previous record.
Minimum temperatures were also above average across the city, with 19.6 °C at Sydney Observatory Hill, 1.2 °C above the historical average. Minimums were well above average throughout the season, with 45 nights above 20 °C (average 21) and only four of 15 °C or below (average 7).
The mean daily temperature at Sydney Observatory Hill was consequently 23.1 °C, 1.1 °C above the historical average
Some sites had their highest summer temperature on record.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/nsw/archive/201302.sydney.shtml
I see your problem, Martin … you’ve referenced BoM … you might as well have referenced Tim Flannery for all of the tattered remains of a scientific reputation that the BoM retains.
Some sites Martin? How odd, I thought they were talking about climate change. You know, something about where the climate affects everyone worldwide, not some odd spots of weather.
Not just a ‘few sites’ where BOM adjusted, maladjusted and basically had the temperatures every which way an alarmist likes.
Not forgetting that someone named Karoly is involved; have they done any honest research lately?
Also not forgetting that most of the folks involved have been seeing fingerprints of mankind in the changing climate for over twenty years now.
What’s their research?
“Oh, it’s hot outside!” says the researcher inside their air conditioned offices.
“It must be because of mankind!” their co-worker adds.
“I must call the head office.” replies the first researcher. Mankind has caused all of Antarctica’s heat to stop in Australia…
Oh yeah, some heavy duty research there.
I’ll care about global warming as an issue when dicaprio rides a bike to work and begins living in a solar powered appartment.
and after he’s sold that rather large boat with the 5000 gallon fuel tank…..
If increased pCO2 what dunnit, why all the Southern Ocean ice sheet growth?
The Antarctic ice sheet growth is caused by global warming.
Any reduction (as projected by the IPCC) will also be caused by global warming.
A standstill will also have been caused by global warming.
Note that the hottest day on record isn’t like, you know, the hottest temperature on record. It’s an average. The day that turned forecast maps purple never happened.
Hottest day year since records began.
So when did the records begin
Typically when they make this kind of claim they are using the start of the satellite record (actually a year later since the first year was warmer) So “ever” here means a few decades only. It gives them a nice cooler starting point to base all their claims on. They also ignore any urban heat effects (they adjust up for these apparently) . The result is a fully manipulated figure and story that fits their desired results. Perfect anti-science.
They’re still being massaged.
Only handprint is the ACORN homogenization thumb on the temperature scale, and vandalism of the Australian historic temperature record where past temperatures are cooled and recent temperatures are “progressively” hyped by the activists at BOM and CSIRO trying to hide the fact that some world temperature records show warming stopped with no statistically significant rise for 17 plus years and others are showing a declining trend. Time Karoly and his fellow megaphone spruikers had a good look at the increasing Antarctic ice close up like the UNSW ship of fools activists who so recently got trapped by that very real and expanding sea ice.
Time for a full public scientific debate rather than propaganda sessions where they claim this nonsense is real, and helped in that cause by a gullible Australian Broadcasting Commission, that cannot fulfil its own charter to present alternative views by credible Australian Scientists.
It’s not the ones that are cooled at issue. It’s the entire 1800’s records that are just ignored, possibly because they exceed currently recorded temps.
Amazing. I lived through that year thinking it was much like any other, except a few doomsayers got detached from Government payouts. Would that more follow.
I am told that this year we are having “our warmest end to winter and a very warm start to spring”. My tulips are 3-4 weeks later in flowering, obviously they didn’t read the press release.
Just how ‘warm’ was 2013? Were any numbers given? As to your late blooming tulips, what caused the frost to kill part of the spring wheat crop in NSW? Are they getting desperate?
Falsely convicting people of a crime is a crime. And it is a crime far more premeditated and sinister in intent than what the Australians are being accused of, which is the following:
the harmless, neutral, and beneficial actions of growing food and cattle, traveling, using personal transportation, and heating water to generate electricity.
And using refrigeration and air conditioning.
What about running GCM simulations on supercomputers?
Lee, in computer programming they say….”GIGO”
That’s garbage in, garbage out. None of the models are accurate. And btw, they DO use supercomputers. Part of where the wasted billions are going…….
Lee,
Maybe they are conserving and using the same supercomputer for all five studies, and use hand pumped cave air to cool the towers?
“Australian heat wave: In running multiple global climate models, five separate studies all pointed toward human influence having a substantial increase in the likelihood and severity of the record temperatures.
New Zealand drought: Computer models show human-caused climate change caused conditions that were more favorable for drought.”
@ Scott –
Yeah, the energy required for the exercise in mental (cyber?) masturbation that is running GCM simulations was kinda my point. 😉
So, the planet hasn’t warmed in 16+ years. And yet a record hot year locally (if we are to believe the adjusted data) indicates global warming as the cause?
I call bullshit.
Good call David.
I just wish the politicians handing over my taxes to these damned fraudsters, would make the same bloody call.
One did and he’s now Prime Minister.
But it appears, when comes to global warming that title comes with a “muzzle”.
I think I’m right in saying that temperature records have only been taken for just over 100 years. I think ‘hottest/coolest/wettest/whatever’ actually means NOTHING!
Meanwhile, in the US, cold records were falling by the bucket load, but that was just weather.
Found this
http://climatism.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/australia-uah-summers.jpg
Thanks, I’ll take a bow!
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Once again, difficulty replicating this chart. Although the shape of the graph looks right, the numbers are all different to the published UAH data. For instance, 2013 is showing less than 0.2, yet the UAH AUST data shows temperatures for the winter ended 2013 (Dec 2012 to Feb 2013) were 0.29, 1.38, and -0.31, which averages to 0.45: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt
It looks as though, for some reason, the above chart isn’t using the normal UAH anomaly base period (1981-2010). Since everything is closer to the base line I’d guess it has used a shorter and more recent period, possibly the last 10 years?
Also, the trend line on the chart is flat. Yet according to UAH AUST, the trend in summer average temperatures between 1979 and 2013 is positive, at +0.07C/dec. Although this is slight, it still shows up clearly on a chart: http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=29vhria&s=8#.VCp3BhY0-3M
And this
http://climatism.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/uah-last-5-years-aust.png
Shhhh! You’re ruining the Narrative!
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Tried to replicate your chart without success then realised your data stops in April 2013, nearly a year and a half ago. So it’s not ‘the last 5 years’; not any more at least. In fact, your chart leaves out two thirds of the record warm year referred to in the title post!
It makes a big difference to the chart when you use the latest data. I’ve updated it with the 5 years (60 months) to end August 2014. As you can see, despite the big drop in August 2014, the trend over the *last 5 years* in UAH AUST is now positive, at +0.37 C/dec: http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=op37f6&s=8#.VCpJ0BY0-3M
You can update your records using the latest UAH values here: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt
“found global warming over Australia” ????
Love it!
Weather is climate again? I thought that was all part of the settled science – weather is not climate as 97+% of scientists and even former Boeing engineer turned slapstick comedian Bill Nye will tell you. In any event there is nothing seen in the way of a trend in the palm print. Using this same presentation method and given the record breaking number of cold records this year one can show we’re headed for an ice age. Sounds like it would be a great cartoon from Josh.
Maybe someone should have a quiet talk with the administrative team at that uni and let them know they suck at climate studies. Or they could ask the student counsel who surely knows the truth of the quality of education they’re getting.
Only minute amounts of carbon is put into the atmosphere, and most of that by people living in abject energy poverty, burning dung, a perfectly renewable resource, to cook their meals. These scientists must mean carbon dioxide instead, but that’s as silly as referring to table salt by the token chlorine.
While we are at it, “we” do not even continue to put carbon dioxide into our atmosphere at an accelerating rate, the Chinese do. Carbon dioxide emissions are on the decline in the developed world.
At work I sometimes add NaCl to my lunch. But when I deal with the Cl2 part alone, I wear a respirator.
Amazing how combining one element with another can result in a relatively harmless compound.
(If they ban carbon, how will our kids take the SAT and get into college? The “lead” in Number 2 pencils is carbon, isn’t it? or will they just tax each answer? 😎
Given that they are also mostly water and carbon themselves, that could pose additional problems…
I like the idea of “sea salt” becoming “chlorine”
It’s a shame they didn’t have a sixth finger-
“Western Australia produced a record 17.2 million tonnes of winter crops like wheat, canola and barley in 2013-14, a 55 per cent increase on the previous year.
South Australian croppers also had a good winter overall, producing a total of 8.6 million tonnes for the harvest in summer, which is an increase of 31 per cent and the third highest production level on record for that state
those results are the biggest highlights in the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) crop report for February, which also shows that Australia’s total winter crop production increased 17 per cent in 2013, to 44 million tonnes.
Mr Pritchard said the new pea varieties had recovered remarkably well after the dry conditions in June and were on track for high yields.
“The new varieties of field peas, like PBA Wharton, PBA Twilight and PBA Gunyah are all expected to yield at least 1.8 tonnes per hectare, with some reports from around Esperance that crops could go as high as 2-2.5t/ha,” he said.
15 Nov 2013 – Australian canola production increased to record levels in 2012-13”
I think the six fingers thing is only in Queensland and Tasmania…
We say that about you Mexicans too….
In Tasmania, two heads are better than one.
Queensland … beautiful one day, perfect the next. We have to have something to discourage southerners coming up here and despoiling our State.
My handprint for them would require only one finger.
Guess which one 😉
This is a ‘handprint’ and not a ‘fingerprint’; these are virtually impossible to explain in any way except AGW. Hottest day, hottest month, hottest summer, hottest spring, and hottest year. Because these are independent random variables, is that what they’re saying? All of these things couldn’t possibly be due to chance because they constitute so many independent random variables?
Epic logic fail.
But they drew the handprint wrong; when playing with oneself, the hand should look more like a fist shouldn’t it?
Left hand image is shown, but – would the Aussies use the right hand, or the wrong hand, to play their games?
You would have to ask Chris Turney of UNSW – apparently he is a master at the five knuckle shuffle.
yawn … another hour, another alarmist report
“…In 2013, heat records fell like dominoes. Australia had its hottest day on record, its hottest month on record, its hottest summer on record, its hottest spring on record and then rounded it off with the hottest year on record…”
Mandelbrot and Wallis demonstrated the persistence of patterns of rainfall, which probably extends to temperature as well. In a sense these various records are a single data point. The climate change people seem not to have heard of such.
The hottest meme is dealt with here.
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/climate-trivia-headlines-and-the-boms-unscientific-obession-with-hottest-ever-records/
Jo’s been all over the BOM’s “case” and their fraudulent manipulation of Australia’s historical temperature records for years now.
She has a growing body of dissenting scientists and the like accumulating alongside her.
Being people with genuine concerns at what the BOM has done and continues to do to historical records, they politely refuse to refer to it as fraud.
But their independant conclusions are inescapable.
Peer reviewed worlds best practice of homogenisation of weather stations around Australia is nothing less than fraud.
The world is just starting to wake up that they’ve been manipulated by world’s best practice.
The Australian bureau of meteorology doesn’t like it and suspect it’s because of Jo and her efforts of getting snippets of what they have been doing into mainstream media.
She’s had a flurry of postive press from the Murdoch owned Australian newspaper over the last couple of weeks that has had the BOM jumping at shadows.
I just wish more of the mainstream media would start taking notice of just what she is exposing.
In the words of one who like the rest of us can see the bleeding obvious,
“It has been said before. It will be said again. The adjustments always seem to add to global warming.”
Who was that masked man.
The biggest question faced by skeptics still remains.
How do we stop them?
Yeah but you guys are happy to use the BOM whenever there’s cold temp records.
That’s because the BOM has their thumb on the scale to keep things warm. If even their adjustments can’t prevent a cold temp record, it must really be cold. <.<
“The Australian” published my letter January 21, 2013 under heading “A reluctance to address fresh climate indicators”. My concluding sentence was this: “The scandalous “adjustments” since 2008 to official historical temperature records, here, in New Zealand, Britain and the US, ought to be the subject of Senate inquiries.” I think we are now getting some traction thanks to people like Jennifer Morohasy.
It was April and the Aboriginals in a remote part of Northern Australia asked their new elder if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was an elder in a modern community he had never been taught the old secrets.
When he looked at the sky he couldn’t tell what the winter was going to be like.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of he tribe should collect firewood to be prepared.
But being a practical leader, after several days he had an idea.
He walked out to the telephone booth on the highway, called the Bureau of Meteorology and asked,
‘Is the coming winter in this area going to be cold?’
The meteorologist responded, ‘It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold..’
So the elder went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.
A week later he called the Bureau of Meteorology again..
‘Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?’
The meteorologist again replied, ‘Yes, it’s going to be a very cold winter.’
The elder again went back to his community and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.
Two weeks later the elder called the Bureau again.
‘Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?’ he asked
‘Absolutely,’ the man replied. ‘It’s looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever.’
‘How can you be so sure?’ the elder asked.
The weatherman replied,
‘Our satellites have reported that the Aboriginals in the north are collecting firewood like crazy, and that’s always a sure sign.’
Cool zombie hand-print graphic. Very fashionable since zombies are “in” this year. 😉
“In 2013, heat records fell like dominoes. Australia had its hottest day on record, its hottest month on record, its hottest summer on record, its hottest spring on record and then rounded it off with the hottest year on record.”
___________________________
Alas, 2013 was also the year Lord Monckton chose to tour Australia to warn against the dangers of climate alarmism. Timing is everything.
So… the Monckton Effect is the opposite of the Gore Effect?
Makes sense, I suppose.
I vaguely recall that Australia is 5% of the surface of the Earth. That’s called GLOBAL warming!
Yes. And a cold winter in the USA in 2013-2014 is mere weather.
Is the Southern Hemisphere even warming?
well apart from a few 43.9c days here in Victoria this summer, its been rather cool, I have a fire going right now, though I did manage 3 nights prior without one.
err thats since late may early june.
in sth aus I never lit a fire before late june and never after august ended.
whatever Bom says
you buy your own thermometer and believe what it says , not them.
CLAIM: “Australia’s Hottest Year Was 1878”
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/australias-hottest-year-was-1878/
& the captain of the ship of fools knows the appropriate meaning of ‘virtually’ to use on his handprint claims is the 2nd one, but implies using the 1st meaning in order to bump up the appearance of certainty to his ‘hand print’ claims.
& yawn . . . .
John
& or ‘her claims’ as the case may be . . . .
John
It was much hotter in Bourke (Western N.S.W.) in the the 1890’s than in 2013, but the old records have been deleted.
From memory I spent much of Ausdie 2013 in a swimming pool or down the beach having fun. Bring it on 🙂
proof you can claim anything when you leave out stations….cherry pick stations….adjust stations…and apply the right algorithm
But isn’t that what they mean when they say “man-made global warming”?
Is it me or does the most biased work come out of austrailia? Seems to me…the theory deals with the planet warming not just austrailia. If the world is not warming and presently it is not then it is Id think that even if you still think we are in a warming trend then austrailias current temp must be in large part to other climatic shifts.
UWA, UNSW, wherever Cook is from. Yes, I’ve previously complained to the Education Min that our unis don’t actually do science any more. While we didn’t create Lewandowski, we allowed him to practise here.
In the US it seems to be more in pockets. Around Mann, for example.
University of Queensland if you don’t mind. Though he did have an interaction with Lew at UWA i believe.
Randy
a number of our public institutions are infected with the rent seeking that accompanys CAGW. The worst is UNSW (England Turney Pitman etc) followed by Melb university (Karoly Gergis etc) followed by CSIRO (who used to employ the master propagandist Nic Stokes) and the supposed chief scientist (Chubb) and then a group of morally hollow public servants at BOM. And then not forgetting the flag bearer Flannery at whatever institution he’s now hiding in.
Not a single independent scientist or for that matter an independent mind amongst them.
Makes you cry for the next generation of scientists to come
The next generation will have to stay in line in order to be admitted to the fraternity. I wonder if a skeptic could pass their oral exams for a PhD degree? Only after getting the degree can they hope to break ranks. Further, if the “data” they all use to do their work has been pre-adjusted and manipulated, what chance is there that they will have an epiphany? It seems to me that it will be up to other disciplines like astrophysics or similar to begin to convince the “climate scientists”.
If they hadn’t calculated the warming no one would have known.
The Australian 2013 heat has been debunked by numerous folks.
Thanks Jimbo, I did not see that you provided several links to the debunking of the alleged record heat in Australia in 2013.
2013 was the year the BoM introduced a new “method” for calculating new temperatures. The BoM also introduced new “angrier” map colours which then had to be retracted. As you say, completely debunked.
“Carbon Footprint” then “Carbon Handprint” and now:
I’ am sure we can guess which finger equals “Carbon Fingerprint”.
Uh, and I’m also thinking Josh might want to be a little careful with that “Carbon Fingerprint” cartoon.
/grin
I’m more worried about the “Methane footprint” with the copious amount of BS being produced nowadays.
These data manipulators are tireless! It seems they’d be embarrassed having to adjust the data into submission year after year, so they could act like we’re always experiencing the hottest most turbulent weather ever. The rest of us have caught on, just waiting for the true believers to catch up.
You can get anything you so desire if you fiddle the records. Jennifer Marohasy research on the Burke (NSW, Australia) figures alone says enough. B of M says homogenised figures is the world standard! I have personal records which show that the summers, rather than hotter, are a lot softer than 40 years ago.
Anyone have the name of the magic book that includes the precise definitions of qualitative terms they are using in their “research”? Exactly what is the cut-off between a hot day and a normal day?
Also, will climate change also significantly increase the chances for heat records in 2014 or did this only apply to 2013? Why didn’t this apply to any year prior to 2013? And is the definition of climate now the average of weather over just a few months? Did climate change also cause the below average temperatures elsewhere on planet Earth that counterbalanced Australia’s record heat?
Their “research” is a true curiosity deserving of its own scientific inquiry.
From the graphic:
Something is definitely lost in translation here.
I think they meant
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/hiding-something-bom-throws-out-bourkes-hot-historic-data-changes-long-cooling-trend-to-warming/
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/09/bom-homogenisation-in-deniliquin-creates-discontinuities-and-changes-trends/
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/bom-finally-explains-cooling-changed-to-warming-trends-because-stations-might-have-moved/
No, Virtually is a weasel word, since virtually means almost, the correct headline is in fact:
WITHOUT CLIMATE CHANGE the hot temperatures of 2013 were not impossible
Such is the semantic meaning as written.
BTW this slight of hand is done by comparing a one year result with a statistical long term average ignoring the long rise from the little ice age, since we are at a optimal ( well not quite as optimal as the holocene climate optimum) peak right now after a rather deadly cold period one needs to take account of that when calculating probability, temperature is a random walk, each throw of the dice is NOT independent of the last, hence the probability sums that assume independence of each trial are not applicable. In fact with temperature up 0.8 deg or so on the little ice age some broken records on the high side are in fact highly probable it’s a random walk from a high base temperature, one would decidely NOT expect broken records on the low side as in some recent northern winters and the Antarctic. This is statistical bullsh1-tango, typical for Karoly who of course was right royally embarassed by Steve McKintyre a couple of years ago, his paper lasted about 5 days, seems he hasn’t learned from then.
Five fingers and five talking points are all they can handle anyway. That includes writing on the hand to remember them.
Can someone confirm when the records actually began? Australia has a relatively short history of collecting accurate temperatures and this will vary city by city. so are the records 200 years old? 100 years old? 50 years old?
Tonyb
The “official” records began at 1910 so that all the record temps from the 1890s and 1900s could go to the forgettery. Like the time the guy who recorded temps for 20 years went to work on a Sunday to read his official thermometer in his Stevo Screen, wrote 125F!! and underlined it twice. That never happened. Like the 6 week heat wave in Bourke never happened either. The actual hottest day was a forecast in 2013 (the actual day came in 4-5C short of the modelling but it’s the forecast that counted).
So before that was 2012 the hottest year? If not then shut hell up.
Are you serious? You think every year has to be warmer than the last, otherwise the possibility that man made climate change is real, is all rubbish? I think you better do some reading
Trusting the IPCC to do science is much like asking the US Congress to certify virginity
More BS fodder for the Chicken Littles at the ABC, Fairfax newspapers and the Guardian rag.
May I suggest that someone with photo altering skills change the hand image by folding down the index finger and the ring and little fingers and then send the result back to its source at USW(?)
So University of New South Wales want to stop something that always existed on Planet Earth: Climate Change.
The shear level of arrogance and pretentiousness is outstanding.
Perhaps these people are confusing writing the answers on their hands prior to an exam and real research.
That’s why they have used their left hand!
Hottest year, almost entirely made up of higher minimum temperatures recorded at city sites and the truncating of regional temperature records.
As a farmer, I know that we were able to grow quite good crops in this “disaster” year. No records this year but a much tougher season on our farm, go figure.
Yep. So 2013 has to be the disaster year, because it isn’t looking good for 2014, with extended ski resort seasons down south and frost at relatively low altitudes up here in the tropics. They have been in a panic after the ship of fools didn’t work out. They obviously regard the zombie portraiture of scaredscientists as a failure as well, so now we have The Purple Hand as a progression from the red mapping of AngrySummer. Wondering what’s next. Are they trying to catch up on Josh or Fenbeagle? ARCCSS morphs into ARCCSH – Centre for Climate System Hyperbole.
The only manmade climate change happening in Australia has to do with erasing and rewriting historical records.
More on the 2013 so called “Angry Summer” BS
http://climatism.wordpress.com/2013/09/06/claim-humans-behind-record-australian-heat-research-shows/
From Wiki, David Karoly is a meteorologist, NOT a climate scientist (whatever that is).
Who are you going to believe, Karoly with his snout firmly in the trough or luminaries such as our host who is still waiting for his “Big Oil’ cheques?
I also note that his meteorological qualifications make him an expert in other areas:
.
Well done, Anthony, for also being an expert in so many areas of research.
The only news that comes out of the Land Down Under anymore is CAGW tripe. It’s to the point where if I see the country’s name mentioned, I roll my eyes and turn the page or change the channel.
All you Australian skeptics have remarkably strong wills and unshakable spirits. I tip my hat to you.
At least we canned our carbon tax!
I had a very mild summer where I live. Does that automatically debunk global warming, you know like a couple of hot days here and there automatically prove it?
Alx, that was the icy tit of the global cooling witch you felt rub up against you. What were the odds of that. I don’t think it could have happened by chance.
Well, I sure do not know why our power bills were so high over winter/spring …… and why I pulled out my old jumpers and leggings….. perhaps thinking I was so cold was just another senior moment!!!!!
They showed a map the other day with the SW of Western Australia well above ‘normal’, but I used more wood.
Yep, the ABC has started a big push with Professor Karoly on Frantic Fran Kelly’s Radio National breakfast radio show this morning.
I think the Prof lost Fran on his convoluted explanation on how they proved the villain was human produced CO2 with all their computer models so she asked for something in simple terms:
What are the odds that humans are the cause?
The answer – 2000 to one on.
So that means you will win $2000 if it is proven that humans are NOT the cause of the “record breaking” 2013 year which is now going to continue into the future (unless the world gets together and stops using coal and oil of course).
And what about bush fires? Fran asked adding that there are some critics who are denying there is any connection between human CO2 and more bush fires.
Well, the Professor’s team are working on that one and a report will be out next year. For their sake I only hope we do not have a wet summer and no bush fires which could upset the publishing of their data somewhat.
Anyhow, Green’s leader Christine Milne has enough material to rival the invasion of Normandy when she and her army saturate the media to-day.
The only thing that puzzles me is why did this sinister serial killer single out Australia in 2013?
What not the UK? – Where according to their Met Office “the annual statistics for 2013 are generally near average and unremarkable”.
Why not the USA? – Where according to the NOAA “the 2013 annual temperature marked the coolest year for the nation since 2009 and tied with 1980 as the 37th warmest year in the 119-year period of record”.
Why not South Africa? Where according to the South African Weather Service 2013 summer and spring were marked by heavy rains and winter experienced cold to very cold weather fronts.
Why not many other countries in the world which did not have high “record breaking heat” and why hasn’t the hand of human produced global warming crushed the ever increasing Antarctic sea ice?
And what happened in Australia in 2011 when the mean averaged temperature was 0.12 deg C below the 1961-190 average? The serial killer have a year off? Or homogenisation hadn’t kicked in?
You have to think like a climate scientist:
Since Australia is at the bottom of the world and CO2 is a heavy gas, it is all accumulating around Australia, making Australia extra special global warming nightmare hot.
Of course the Antarctic ice is growing as a result of the CO2 fizzing into the sea and making it carbonated, because every good climate scientist knows that fizzy drinks make the ice go longer.
2007:
“Environmental researcher Tim Flannery has warned that Brisbane andAdelaide could run
out of water by year’s end.”
2008:
“The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009.”
2009:
“Our fifth-largest city, Adelaide, may be out of drinking water next year.”
….
2014: ?
[Global Idiocy Alarmist-Of-The-Year Award: Dr. Tim Flannery]
Australia, in the minds of the climate obsessed, is special because while the globe is cooling (global climate and all that), since Australia is warm (cooking the books always makes them warm, no?) the only cause is CO and the world must be coming to an end, and soon.
Australian police are carrying out opps on suspected terrorists groups . It would be nice to see them at the doors of this place. http://mobile.news.com.au/national/pine-gap-australia8217s-most-secretive-location/story-fncynjr2-1226687597135
The owner of that hand should have washed it after his/her comfort break.
So it seems most of you do not take on trust the statements –
or
Are people here just a bit cynical about such statements, or are we all just a bit tired of yet more alarmist drivel?
extremely cynical, especially since our power use has dropped so much they now say we are Over supplied.
and adding fuel tax to inflated fuel prices i dont know many people who can drive anywhere except for strictly necessary trips.
they stated we are already ahead of the proposed dropped levels of co2 emitting
go figure.
Not so much a handprint more a BOM thumb on the scales.
The Australian Federation came into existence in 1901. BOM was formed in 1906 with the sovereign States transferring their weather recording responsibilities to BOM in 1908. Hence BOM refers to its records as starting 1910. There are indeed hotter record days before this, with some using Stephenson screens, but are not part of the official BOM records.
Criticising BOM can look foolish. It is a professional organization and will follow the latest methodology accepted internationally – including homogenization.
This does not mean that we should not question – as has Dr. Marohasy- and demand explanations. But the issue I feel has to do with the procedure than any deliberate bias. What really comes into question is whether the homogenization process and algorithms have fundamental statistical flaws. This can only really be addressed by someone expert in this area.
The second issue has to do with the gravy train like the “ship of fools” and other researchers like ARCCS. It is in their interests to hype up the extreme events. Yet even here they will be using official data to make statements most of which will be “true.”
Where they pull the wool over people’s eyes are the implied relationship of extreme events to CO2. If we acknowledge that T has increased then it is statistically impossible for records not to be broken “somewhere.” These are not specific predictions i.e. in advance. It is all post hoc claims. I guess most people can pick the first four horses in the Melbourne Cup when the race has been run and won.
Yet, nowhere can it be shown that CO2 is the culprit. But people are attuned to believing GHG’s must be behind all this. If it is spouted over the airways by “experts” often enough it becomes the norm.
BOM is a professional, fully funded Govt organization. Any attempt to suggest a conspiracy is barking up the wrong tree.
Not quite true, the BOM is undoubtedly professional in weather and hydrology, but it and the CSIRO are staffed by a number of earth scientists who are indoctrinated with the same “Save the planet” cause. In these two cases environmental activists have found themselves in positions of influence and have engaged in employing people who think like they do (very common even in private enterprise) and inhibited progression of those that don’t. Hence a groupthink has emerged due to selective employment. The US EPA also staffed by environmental scientists is also corrupted by this noble cause save the planet corruption. Scientists working “for a cause” are rarely cold and objective on subjects related to their cause. Science should be driven only by an intense curiosity to know the truth, never by the attainment of a cause, they MUST be prepared to go where the data takes them.
For example we stil keep hearing that the west shelf of anarctica is melting by 300 cubic kilometers every year due to climate change, where such a melting would require over 5 Watts per square meter to go into ice melting over the whole of the west shelf 24 x 7 x 365 even when the air temp is sub zero! Even this impossible feat is over 8 times the 0.6 Watts per square meter warming that CO2 is supposedly causing… therefore energetically CO2 warming CANNOT be causing that melting. It’s trivial grade school math, yet so-called climate science ignores the obvious problem and persist in attributing to global warming a melting that requires orders of magnitude more warming than exists.
Ah right so the BOM is trusted whenever there’s cold temp records, just not when there’s record hot temps…
Martin,
Could you please elaborate on your profound statement
It’s pretty easy to understand. Sceptics trust the BOM when they show cold records are broken. But when they show hot records are broken sceptics cry foul. Double standards hey!
Martin,
I’m sorry but I still don’t get your drift.
Could you please give an example or two of what disturbs you?
I’m asking for examples, not analogies or inferences
Martin, since BOM records are adjusted UP, and are UHI contaminated when cold records emerge we know that it was probably actually colder than they said it was. For example Brisbane has about a 1 degree UHI effect, if there is a cold record there, without the UHI its actually 1 Degree colder than Brisbane would measure. If such a day occured 50 years ago it would have been that much colder.
Australia’s ‘Extreme 2013’ would not be possible without the unprecedented level of stupid burning,
The planet warmed 1700-2001. Surprise, surprise, it’s warmest at the end of a warming period.
It seems odd that in that “hottest year” of 2013 the town of Ross where I live, set its “official” record for coldest temp (Many locals including me, claim it was actually colder in the town (-8) a degree lower than that recorded by officials) and the nearby town of Liawenee recorded a minimum of minus 12.2 Celsius only 0.8 degrees off the coldest temperature ever recorded in Tasmania.
Tasmanian saw the coldest September (Spring) on record that year and November was similarly cold, breaking all time cold records also!
The first link below shows graphical data from the Oz Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) collated last March to also show the unremarkable summer of 2014. It shows that the summers of 2013 in each of the seven States and Territories were individually cooler than in prior years. Whilst the BoM and other “authorities” such as David Karoly made huge headlines about alleged broken records, their claims were misleading. For instance, the claim of a record hot year was actually a statistical quirk wherein only one State (South Australia) was significantly warmer in that year, and oddly each of its four seasons were individually cooler. (See Fig 5 in link 2 for this, and more). What happens is that maxima in a large complex system generally occur at randomly different times so that any regional temporal high in one State is offset by lows elsewhere.
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/australia/bobfj/fig2600.jpg
For full article:
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/climate-trivia-headlines-and-the-boms-unscientific-obession-with-hottest-ever-records/
Oh, I forgot to mention that in Oz it is mostly the summer that would be a concern if there were to be an upward trend in heat and drought. In the cooler months there could well be benefits in what has been alleged as bad stuff. Oh and warmer nights? No more farmer alerts and frosts?
2013 is so last year, dahling.
Uh?
So a sparsely populated continent that exports most of its coal has man to blame for heatwaves? Right!!
Two days in Sydney just over 32c, a new records since records began apparently. The scare is still strong in the Aussie MSM.
This fairy tale of Australian temperature records seems to be heavily reliant on a combination of HADCRUT4 modelling and natural recordings.
Bob Tisdale had this to say WUWT back April 22, 2013 “Model-Data Diferences..”: “Presenting the differences between modeled and observed global surface temp-
eratures is yet another way to show how poorly the climate models simulate global temperatures since 1880. The models cannot explain the observed cooling from
1880 to the 1910s, and they cannot explain the warming from the 1910s to the
1940s. Plotting the difference also helps to show that the divergence in recent
decades, with the models simulating too much warming, started as far back as
the early 1990s, when models overestimated the cooling from the volcanic
aerosols associated with the eruption of Mount Pinatubo.
I think in this case there is a cherry-pick from 1979
There is a debate here in Australia concerning temperature “homogenisation”.
Consider this from our records (either since erased completely or repudiated):
The hottest temperature ever in Australia: 16 January 1889 Cloncurry – outback Queensland – 53.1C (in shade … and published on 18th Sydney Morning Herald)
Hottest temperature in Sydney: 22 January 1923… 47.2C. Same day western
Sydney (Penrith 49.8C) and (Campbelltown 49.7C)
Hottest temperature Bourke (western New South Wales) 3 January 1909
(Stevenson screen) 51.7C
Kevin,
Looks like the Sydney Morning Herald has had a significant change in editorial attitude since 1889….. What about this recent crap-piece from an astronomer “expert” claiming others to be amateurs?
http://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/09/sydney-morning-herald-not-balanced-fair-or-factual/
Yes Bob
The Sydney Morning Herald is now but a shadow of what it once was: One of the oldest and most widely respected newspaper in the Country. It is now run by lefties and thankfully its readership is very much on the wane as a consequence.
Somebody doesn’t like what the Aussie government is doing about climate change methinks.
As far as I can tell from a quick skimming read of the BAMS special report – which also includes California droughts and Japanese and Chinese heat waves – all papers have used a similar methodology: models are produced of natural variability – and if the extreme events occur beyond the 95% probability zone they are regarded as probably not natural. The problem with this approach is, as the IPCC have consistently admitted, the science of natural variability is ‘poorly constrained’ (which means not known very well).
This is an example of global group think – where the scientists of China, Japan, Australia and the USA (India also), get together and agree a methodology which is highly questionable, but as it is the only one they have, they don’t question it.
Interestingly, the US papers include some graphs of zonal and meridional wind anomalies clearly showing that changing pressure patterns in the upper atmosphere led to the unusual conditions – bringing us back to the Jetstream and its recent shifts. I expect Australian extremes would have the same proximal cause. There is no science that can show the shifts in the jets are caused by rising carbon dioxide – but clearly there is a correlation. We do have however some proxy evidence of past shifts in the jets – not caused by carbon dioxide (that is, before James Hansen closed down the NASA research programme on this aspect of climate change).
The jury is out on the causes of the shifting jets – either rising global temperatures have reduced the global gradient because the Arctic has warmed most (but not the Antarctic!) and the looser jetstream has meandered (greater gradient supposedly means faster tighter jets and slower means loopier with extremes of heat or cold and rain within the loop); or, the jets are impacted by changes in solar UV – as the NASA work suggested (Drew Shindell, papers 2001-2003) – which is why the jets shifted during the Little ice Age. And of course, BOTH may be operating in combination. My bet is that 75% of the changes are natural and related to both solar cycles and internal ocean oscillations.
That would mean that CO2 might just be topping out the extremes. A feature of all such natural warming-induced extremes is that they precede the downslope. Global temperatures always fall precipitously despite high levels of CO2 during the end of inter-glacial periods. The current high CO2 will therefore not likely prevent the next fall, but they could potentially reduce the worst extremes of a cold period!
Remind me again how much growth Sydney has seen in the last few years , how many more miles of roads and buildings etc. After that remind me how ‘well’ they made sure the weather stations have coped with this rather interesting UHI effect .
Time we had an accurate definition of ‘Man Made Global Warming’ – I’d go with :
Warming which only occurs when man alters historic temperature records to create the illusion of a hotter planet.
+10
It is clear that the climate alarmists are using the technique of shouting louder instead of answering the plain evidence carefully documented by Jennifer Marohasy and her colleagues.
This tells us that they are relying on feeble arguments that project their double standards onto skeptics.
Keep on pushing. AGW has corrupted academia, politics and media. The pushback will take time
Tony M
If you read the reports and Climate literature that was issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the information of Australian Farmers in 1968, these reports are very straightforward explain the way the Australian Climate works in terms of weather, they explain the variability and the seasonal changes, give frost indexes, and many maps and charts of the way temperature changes, how it is measured and the extremes that can be expected year by year, the floods, the droughts.
But not one mention of Global warming, just variable weather and climate facts. Since those days, climate activists and grant scavengers have infiltrated the BOM and the CSIRO – it is now a political organisation committed to providing convenient means to prove by continual propaganda and dubious method the meme of alarming warming that aligns with socially altering this country to fear climate instead of working with the known and unknown elements of our weather.
So your claim that it is today a professional organisation falls short especially in the way the Australian Climate records have been treated.
If you go further back and have a look at the very first 1913 modern BOM report titled “The Climate and Weather of Australia” by H.A.Hunt, Griffith Taylor and E.T..Quale you will find extensive references to weather records and Climate History and the extreme weather that was a feature of the continent of Australia and of great value to the early settlers of Australia, and if you read the BOM History you will see how much care and attention was put into the compiling of the valuable temperature and weather information.
No professional scientist would have deliberately trashed this record for a cheap claim of ever increasing temperature to try and match modelling projections that have been proven to be seriously out of touch with observations and the unmolested data record.
You only have to put in the time to read those contemporaneous writings to understand the corruptive influences that have eaten away at the hard won confidence that has been lost in the smeared averages, the removal/tampering with site and the homogenization of remaining site temperatures can produce a warming bias to suit a political scheme.
“Virtually impossible!”
Sounds like a dish soap ad…
Hmmm, a record day, in a record month, in a record season, in a record year…
Wow! What a coincidence!!!!
Does this mean all the heat that was supposedly hiding in the deep ocean actually went to Australia instead?