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The hiatus is all the rage these days. Many thanks to Matt Ridley for his inspirational WSJ article.
One of your best….Thanks Josh
In other news, Hillary Clinton is now on the record as saying Climate Change is a bigger threat to the US than ISIS.
Cynical people might say that an enemy who doesn’t exist is always much safer to fight than the one who does.
I thought you were joking at first but she did say this:
“At the National Clean Energy Summit, Hillary Clinton said climate change was the greatest threat facing the world”
Increasing CO2 does have one drawback. Farmers are scrambling to find enough space to cram this years record smashing crop in to storage.
But adapting to increasing CO2 will be easy…………build bigger bins to store these record crops.
Seriously, the corn and soybean yields and production numbers are exceeding previous years/records by a wide margin. With regards to soybeans, for instance, the increase in CO2 from less than 300 ppm to the current 400 ppm, is likely responsible for 20% of it.
The biggest weather/climate threat of the season will come at the end of next week in the form of…………………cold.
Not drought, not heat, not flooding, not tornadoes, not hurricanes, not increasing CO2/greenhouse gases but cold.
An air mass with temperatures more like October will effect much of the Midwest late next week. Moist soils will help keep temperatures from plunging somewhat but frost and near freezing temperatures to a crop not yet mature may cause a bit of damage.
The predominant natural weather pattern for the eastern US since last November(June and late Aug were exceptions) has been cold upper lows and energy from the northern jet stream dropping south from high latitudes. Last Winters Polar Vortex’s were the Winter version of this.
This will happen again,for the umteenth time(in the last 10 months) next week.
This pattern has resembled 1976/77 in many ways. One of the other noteworthy features with this pattern in both those years, is the well teleconnected upper level ridge to the west of these troughs…………and the natural cause of the California drought/heat.
After the mild 1980’s/90’s, the evidence is strong that the natural cycle ~30 years has flipped back to where it was in the 50′-70’s, when this type of pattern was more common.
Yes, the clouds of policy stupidity are building for a possible storm later. This upcoming weather pattern will be a continuation of current policy storm patterns. Get ready to be labeled a fringe group climate conspirator in the not too distant future.
It does make you wonder if a computer model could be built to predict stupid behavior, statements, and favored talking point strategies. In such a system Hillary earns 2 points for these nonsense statements with donor groups and already-identified vote bundlers, she then earns zero points if more evidence comes fast enough to undermine the position to the point of forcing silence, and she has a remote risk of -0.5 points in case of a rapid turn down in global and regional temps with obvious acceleration of ice coverage. This point system could be applied to many statements deemed safe for public consumption with little downside risk. The key though is short-term risk-reward strategy as in courtroom win-the-day type claims.
According to the first law of Cipolla’s Basic Laws of Human Stupidity, it would be impossible to create such a model because one always underestimates the number of stupid people in circulation (even when taking the first law into account). The point system would also be difficult to use because the measurement of stupidity is dependent on the value systems of the actors involved in the interaction. It’s a nice thought though.
What is it with liberals like “Hillary”? Is their brain upside down or what?
Try this book and find out about liberalism and mental disorders
Don’t mean to be crass,
but shouldn’t the bottles of
“No. 2” be much bigger?
The special “No. 2” in climate excuse-ism is packed by the guy that gets “8 great tomatoes in that little bitty can.”
Terms and conditions apply – temps may go up or down.
Does this mean that if temps stay the same we can get our money back?
Where did I put that application form ….. .
If temps stay the same, well that’s just catastrophic warming and cooling at the same time.
Got anything for a hiatus hernia?
What, no Love Potion No. 9?
love the nouns turned to verbs.
one day our descendents, when confronted by a slick political charlatan selling snake oil cures will use the perjorative, “stop Obama-ing me,” or “We were Obama’d”.
Simon and Garfunkel did this to an extreme back in 1966 in their song: “A Simple Desultory Philippic”
“I been Norman Mailered, Maxwell Taylored,
I been John O’Hara’d, McNamara’d.
I been Rolling Stoned and Beatled ’til I’m blind.
I been Ayn Randed, nearly branded Communist,
Cause I’m left-handed.
That’s the hand I use, well, never mind!”
All quite reminiscent of a classic tune:
Well, terminology is the really funny thing with respect to describing the behavior in recent decades of the GASTA time series data and the satellite time series data.
hiatus of AGW
pause of AGW
plateau of AGW
leveling off of AGW
suspension of AGW
flattening of AGW
Any reference to AGW in the description of the behavior is not just biased evaluation; it is irrelevant and unnecessary evaluation.
The accurate description of the behavior in recent decades of the GASTA time series data and the satellite time series data is no statistically significant change in the temperature.
Nice one Josh 🙂
Sorry it is so long …
A mathematician, a physicist and a manmade global warming advocate are drinking in a bar. At the end of the evening, the three line up at the bar to pay their bill. The mathematician frowned at his $41.80 bill. After looking at it for a little while, he broke into a smile. “Hey, this is the sum of the first 18 Fibonacci numbers, how cool! Here, have a $25.84 tip.” Meanwhile, the physicist was considering his own $42.00 bill. I could have had this alcohol made in my lab by my lab assistants, he thought. When he considered the cost of the materials, equipment and salary for his assistants, he realized just what a great deal he was getting. “Here is $60.00, you can keep the change.” As the physicist paid the bartender, the manmade global warming advocate let out a relieved sigh. He began to walk out the door. “Whoa, whoa, whoa! Where are you going? You owe me $48.34.” The manmade global warming advocate looked confused. “I don’t understand. I don’t owe you anything.”. The bartender began to get angry. “You drink, you pay. It is that simple.” Picking up the three bills and handing them to the bartender, the global warming advocate took on a condescending tone. “When you homogenize the data, not only will you see that I paid my bill, you will see that I am a great tipper!”
PML Todd, good one
hiatus = warming interruptus.
Ah, so that’s Hansen’s new job. Too bad, he looks better with his hat.
Hiatus hernia !
Thanks, Josh. 😉
Global warming stopped after the 1998 El Niño. It is that simple.
Will it restart? Will it return to cooling like in 1940-1980? Even worse?
Only time will tell for sure.
But, what caused those 18 years of global warming?
What made it stop?
The only idea that makes any sense to me, is that the preponderance of El Niños from 1978 to 1998 caused the warming. Mostly neutral ENSO = hiatus.
See “ESRL-PSD: Multivariate ENSO Index”, at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
“I have no patience with so-called common sense (a spurious article, unutterably different from the genuine one) one is told to use, and which they say one does not use as soon as one deviates from the ordinary course and takes a risk. I repeat, I have no patience with it. I have no patience with it for the very reason that my own common sense, if I reflect, leads me to wholly different results than the conclusion of narrow-minded worldly wisdom and prudent, half-hearted righteousness. Oh, that dawdling, oh, those hesitations, oh, that not believing that good is good, that black is black, that white is white.” –Vincent van Gogh (letter to Theo van Gogh, 1883)
Tony Watts, you BROKE your own site. It will not work on a smart phone. I can not read this thread, period. You broke it.
Reminder: The climate alarmists are not wrong because they failed to predict warming. After all, they could have guessed right (for a change). They are wrong because they think a beneficial trace gas controls the weather and that moderate warming would be a catastrophe. They are like a bad stock-picker, always buying high and selling low. They would have been much better off to have stuck with global cooling, which is much scarier, and been right half the time.
Snake oil never goes out of season.