The “King of Cool” writes in our recent Open Thread
Weather is never just weather
Says Sophie Cunningham in her new book which she is promoting all over Australia at the moment warning us to be afraid, extremely afraid.
Why? Well, guess what – this year marks the fortieth anniversary of Cyclone Tracy which hit the city of Darwin on Christmas Eve 1974, killing 71 people, destroying 80% of the houses and leaving 41,000 of the 47,000 inhabitants homeless.
(Expect lots and lots more cyclone hysteria leading up to Dec 24)
Listen here to Sophie’s grave warning on the ABC (17.44 on the download audio):
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/thelist/tracy/5673802
“We can expect more Tracys unless we begin to take climate change seriously” Sophie tells us.
“In the last three decades the number of cyclones and hurricanes has remained constant, but the number of Category 4 and 5 cyclones has increased. Cyclone Tracy, the cyclone that wiped out Darwin on Christmas Day 1974, was a Category 4 cyclone”.
http://thehoopla.com.au/tracys-extreme-weather-lessons/
The number of Category 4 and 5 cyclones has increased? Really!
Hey, hang on for a minute Sophie; this is what the BOM actually says about cyclones:
“Trends in tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (south of the equator; 90–160°E) show that the total number of cyclones appears to have decreased to the mid 1980s, and remained nearly stable since. The number of severe tropical cyclones (minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa) shows no clear trend over the past 40 years.”
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
Ok it also says that:
“There is substantial evidence from theory and model experiments that the large-scale environment in which tropical cyclones form and evolve is changing as a result of greenhouse warming. Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections. There remains uncertainty in the future change in tropical cyclone frequency (the number of tropical cyclones in a given period) projected by climate models.”
And if you go to the technical report link it does state:
“Substantial disagreement remains between climate models concerning future changes in tropical cyclone intensity, although the highest resolution models show evidence of an increase in tropical cyclone intensity in a warmer world”
(Wonder what the lowest resolutions say?)
Sorry Sophie, when am I going to build my cyclone shelter in Sydney?
When we see something different on this trend graph of the REAL world, not the imagined model one:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/images/tc-graph-1969-2012.png
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Cyclone Tracy damage:
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Climate Alarmism can be quite lucrative. So can robbing banks.
Pointman says:
August 16, 2014 at 8:02 am
Should that “Tracys” be “Tracies”?
===========================================
She should have written something like ” ….events similar to Tracy will occur…”, or “…Tracy like events will occur”. Her phrase is just poor grammar. When I started blogging 6 years ago, I was very surprised at the many grammatical errors which could be seen almost anywhere I went.
dp
Weather consists of events in real world. Climate is a statistical framework derived from weather events.
And as far as I recall a cyclone had not hit Darwin for something 50 years before 1974 as well. That is why we were so uninspired to do any serious preparation thinking that it just wouldn’t hit.
I went to a Christmas party that night and drove home in worsening conditions. Not as memorable as what happened a little later though, nor the sight when the sun came up at around 5AM.
Thanks Pete.
Glad to see that’s not the the case anymore. Esp. after such an awful disaster.
This is from just one strip of the Pilbra coast, less than 100 km (62 miles) wide from 1879 to 1925. I think we can all agree this was not due to rampant cAGW attack.
I lived in Roebourne for a few months when a small boy and it got hit by a another cat 4 while we were there. The above book’s author has no clue.
Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Karratha/Dampier/Roebourne region
24-25 Dec 1870 – A cyclone passed near Roebourne on Christmas morning, the pressure falling to 956 hpa. The cyclone caused damage to buildings and boats. Trees were so thoroughly denuded of foliage that the landscape was described as similar to that in winter in England.
6-7 Jan 1881 – Sixteen people died as all but one large schooner either foundered or was washed ashore. Parts of the coastline were completely changed and two lines of sand hills were eroded away, indications of a significant storm surge.
7 March 1882 – A severe cyclone passed Roebourne and Cossack in the evening causing damage to every building in the settlements. Cossack recorded a minimum pressure of 942 hPa. Despite the extensive loss of sheep from surrounding stations it was considered fortunate that only one person suffered an injury.
1 March 1889 – Flooding was considerable at Cossack where the cyclone coincided with high tide. All crew aboard the Waratah were lost off Cape Preston and one man drowned in the river at Roebourne.
4-9 Jan. 1894 – Within the space of five days two cyclones crossed the Pilbara coast. The first caused damage to many buildings at Roebourne and Cossack. The second cyclone caused more significant damage to the area completely washing away the previously damaged sea wall at Cossack. Over forty lives were believed to have been lost as twelve luggers and the steamer Anne were destroyed. Altogether the damage was estimated at 15000 pounds and the loss of some 15000 sheep. Flooding was also substantial.
2 April. 1898 – A cyclone was described as causing more damage at Cossack than had ever been experienced before. Tramway, rails, road and bridges were destroyed and telegraph line downed. Houses collapsed and all boats slipped their moorings. The damage was estimated at over 30000 pounds. Whim Creek registered 747 mm of rain in 24 hours, the highest daily rainfall ever recorded in WA.
4 Jan. 1911 – A cyclone affected the Pilbara coast between Cossack and Onslow. The Glenbank was wrecked off Legendre Island with the loss of all but one of its crew. The cyclone crossed near Mardie station where nearly every outbuilding was levelled to the ground and 6000 gallon tanks were blown away.
21-22 March 1912 – This cyclone crossed the coast just west of Balla Balla, the port for the copper mines of the Whim Creek district, early on the 22nd. Damage extended more than 200 kilometres along the coast. A large, iron sailing ship, the Crown of England, was wrecked on Depuch Island; a similar vessel, the Concordia, was driven ashore nearby. Several lighter vessels and pearling luggers were sunk or wrecked. The Koombana was lost at sea off Port Hedland with none of the 140 people aboard surviving. In total the cyclone claimed well over 150 lives.
21 Jan.1925 – Only a very small portion of the land end of the Point Samson jetty was left intact. Almost 5 km of the tramline was washed away and the Pope’s Nose Creek bridge was badly damaged. At Cossack the sea in the creek rose 7.2 m, covering the road and surrounding country for about a mile (1.6 km). Seven luggers and a schooner which had sheltered in Cossack Creek were lifted 100 m into the mangroves by the storm surge. Not a building was left unscathed in Roebourne. Residents sheltered in more substantial stone buildings as the timber houses were razed. The Jubilee Hotel was unroofed and the other two hotels badly damaged.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/wa/roebourne.shtml
That sort of repeated destruction can come back at any time, and it definitely won’t have anything to do with CO2 rise.
Hmm… 1974 was in a period of global cooling. We seem to be currently in a cooling period. It is claimed severe climate events INCREASE during periods of global cooling. Maybe Sophie had her tongue in her cheek? 🙂
Two disasters in 1974
There were two disasters in 1974, one was Cyclone Tracy which hit the city of Darwin killing 71 people and destroying much of the town, while the other was I got married that year shortly before the Cyclone.
As I look back on both events, they don’t seem to suggest CO2 related global warming was the cause even though I got married in a fever hotter than a pepper sprout ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6soXB388Mpo ) and it is said to get very hot at times in Darwin. In fact, since CO2 seems to have been “safe” back in those days of the scare of a new “ice age” (we are in an ice age now of course, they meant a new glacification) I sort of think that both these horrific events may have been due to natural causes.
(the wife never looks at what I am typing thank the gods)
Her blog says she is a writer of Fiction. That says it all.
It is worth noting that if her book had been a skeptical one instead of an alarmist one, she would be damned by the alarmist camp, Skeptical Science would run an article bemoaning the lack of science education among the public, and her lack of scientific qualifications would be highlighted repeatedly.
But because she agrees with the alleged scientific consensus, the requirement of scientific qualifications is magically waived.
What happened to “climate is what you expect; weather is what you get”?
Apart from the fact that Darwin was the only major town in 10,000km of coastline and had no decent building standards, if Tracy had passed 15km to the East or West the damage would have been minimal and Gough wouldn’t have had to interrupt his holiday.
Tracys is shorthand for cyclones – fairly clear I would think – so not a grammatical error. The silly thesis ,however is not so readily forgiven.
I was fifteen and sat on the toilet seat all night and I was not scared at all. So bring on the rest of the Tracy’s. In addition I also worked on plans (draftsperson) 6 years later and you had to follow the building code or else the building was not approved to be built. So yeah One Tough Town.
Media Watch needs to be told about Sophie and see if they can do something about this propagandist.
Regards
Climate Heritic
Oddly enough I have been told that the weather is (WAS) not the same as the climate. Then I was told that the weather was now the climate. I was also told about CATASTROPHIC ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING, then I was called a ‘CLIMATE DENIE*’. I no longer know ‘weather’ to laugh or cry.
Here they are in action. There are so many examples of this kind of duplicitous behavior.
I have also been told that anything less than 30 years is just the weather. Even the IPCC and the WMO tell me this very same thing. They do say climate can be months to millions of years with the classic period being 30 years or more of weather data. So there you go, the weather can be the climate whenever you REALLY NEED IT.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-1-1.html
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/faqs.html
The heatwave in Russia was a sign of climate change (less than 1 month), while increasing Antarctic sea ice extent over a decade (still weather) is just the weather. Weather and climate should both be argued now. This is very easy for me, but I think they will try to set the rules on a DAILY BASIS (weatherclimatechange or not).
Nice that we agree.
Ah, a comment inviting grammatical pedantry. I think I can respond without being accused of being an Internet ‘grammar Nazi’.
Others may differ, but the convention I observe is this: If ‘tracy’ were a common noun, then more than one would be ‘tracies’. But since Tracy is a proper noun, the proper plural is ‘Tracys’.
So there.
/Mr Lynn
Sophie Cunningham talks crap. I live in Darwin. Over the 12 months in each year, Darwin probably has the most stable weather in all of Australia. We don’t get extreme weather. Cyclone Tracy was a one-off. As for Cunningham, here in Darwin we have never heard of her or her book.
What I find strange is why nobody is talking about the unusually cold temperatures currently being experienced in Darwin. Then again, it doesn’t suit the dangerous human-caused global warming agenda to talk about it.
Great thread, thanks to all who contributed their stories.
Especial thanks to Unmentionable with the history of devastating cyclones on the Pilbara coast. Boy, the people who lived there were tough and resilient. Today’s wusses have a nervous breakdown if the power is off for a day or two. The inhabitants in the late C19th – early C20th, not to mention the many mariners who perished at sea, had a lot more tribulations to deal with.
Soapy Cunningham – another one suffering from climate change desperation syndrome. Give her a powder, someone, please.
I’m with Tim on this Sophie that you need to take your medication regularly-
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/repeated_and_uncontrollable_failures/
Mind you Sophie it would be better if you tried some self-help therapy first-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/wa/onslow.shtml
And note in particular from that Onslow cyclone graph the disclaimer-
‘The accuracy of wind gust values early in the record are usually less reliable than those in recent times’
But never let the bleeding obvious facts in one particular area of weather/climate science and monitoring get in the way of fiddling old temp records when it suits eh folks?