Open Thread

open_thread

Traveling today, as I have been all week, but this seemed like a good time for an open thread. Discuss anything within bounds of WUWT commenting policy.

 

 

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180 thoughts on “Open Thread

  1. This past Monday here in Canada’s Capital, the high temperature was (approximately) 30C (86F) under sunny skies. By Thursday, the warm air had been chased away and the mercury dipped to 11C (51F). People are using the twitter hashtag #Augtober. (August meets October.) I sure hope some global warming shows up. Anyone have Al Gore’s or David Suzuki’s phone number? ;->

  2. Here in New England, July and August so far have seemed unusually cool (to me). Is it? I’ve seen nothing in the press about this (assuming it’s true) as it would interfere with their narrative. Any thoughts?

  3. @ PaulH:
    Aaagh! Not Al Gore! The last thing we need here is the Gore effect! In Toronto the temperature has not reached 30C once this summer – normally we’re good for at least 10 days in the 30s. I can’t remember a summer like this since the summer of 1992, but then we had Mt. Pinatubo to blame for the cold.

  4. Records out at Pearson International Airport in Toronto have the mercury hitting between 29C -30C 6 times since June; and 30C or higher on other two occasions. Either way, it has been chilly.

  5. I recently read about a long term steady decline in atmospheric O2. Could it be that the decline in O2 has been large enough to cause an apparent increase in CO2? CO2 in absolute quantity has perhaps stayed the same while it’s percentage of the atmosphere has gone up because O2 has gone down? Would like to know what the experts have to say.

  6. Weather is never just weather
    Says Sophie Cunningham in her new book which she is promoting all over Australia at the moment warning us to be afraid, extremely afraid.
    Why? Well, guess what – this year marks the fortieth anniversary of Cyclone Tracy which hit the city of Darwin on Christmas Eve 1974, killing 71 people, destroying 80% of the houses and leaving 41,000 of the 47,000 inhabitants homeless.
    (Expect lots and lots more cyclone hysteria leading up to Dec 24)
    Listen here to Sophie’s grave warning on the ABC (17.44 on the download audio):
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/thelist/tracy/5673802
    “We can expect more Tracys unless we begin to take climate change seriously” Sophie tells us.
    “In the last three decades the number of cyclones and hurricanes has remained constant, but the number of Category 4 and 5 cyclones has increased. Cyclone Tracy, the cyclone that wiped out Darwin on Christmas Day 1974, was a Category 4 cyclone”.
    http://thehoopla.com.au/tracys-extreme-weather-lessons/
    The number of Category 4 and 5 cyclones has increased? Really!
    Hey, hang on for a minute Sophie; this is what the BOM actually says about cyclones:
    “Trends in tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (south of the equator; 90–160°E) show that the total number of cyclones appears to have decreased to the mid 1980s, and remained nearly stable since. The number of severe tropical cyclones (minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa) shows no clear trend over the past 40 years.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
    Ok it also says that:
    “There is substantial evidence from theory and model experiments that the large-scale environment in which tropical cyclones form and evolve is changing as a result of greenhouse warming. Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections. There remains uncertainty in the future change in tropical cyclone frequency (the number of tropical cyclones in a given period) projected by climate models.”
    And if you go to the technical report link it does state:
    “Substantial disagreement remains between climate models concerning future changes in tropical cyclone intensity, although the highest resolution models show evidence of an increase in tropical cyclone intensity in a warmer world”
    (Wonder what the lowest resolutions say?)
    Sorry Sophie, when am I going to build my cyclone shelter in Sydney?
    When we see something different on this trend graph of the REAL world, not the imagined model one:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/images/tc-graph-1969-2012.png

  7. I’ve posted the following many times before, but to no avail. I can only ask you all to at least consider reading the Act below. This is not propaganda, it is a legitimate website by the so-called “Government Of Canada” (Her Majesty the Queen) which is nothing but a freakin corporate body politic. I do not espouse to any such activity engaged by this so-called government of Canada whether the activity is deemed safe or not. I will only except the weather as an act of God/Nature and not man……. no matter how rough a storm or how deep the cold. Piss off imposters!!!!
    I would really appreciate some comments on this. Thank you
    http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/W-5/page-1.html
    Believe it now?

  8. I came across tis many years ago in a men’s mag. With a slight change it fits today. PHILOSOPHY is like searching for a black cat in a dark alley at midnight. THEOLOGY is like searching in a dark alley for a black cat that isn’t there. CLIMATE WARMISTS are searching in a dark alley at midnight for a black cat that isn’t there, shouting all the while “I’ve got it, I’ve got it, I’ve got it.”

  9. Still waiting for someone here to bring up the massive project on magnetic reconnection that is going on now. Maybe it was and I missed it? The way I see it, magnetic reconnection is not likely to occur anytime in the near future due to the lack of sufficient solar forcing ( been this way for about 8 years). Nevertheless, massive amounts of money is going toward launching instruments to attempt to measure it. Magnetic reconnection basically involves the breach in the earths magnetosphere allowing a massive influx of solar energy into earths atmosphere. No global warming advocate has the cohones to bring this up in conversation, yet a lot of money is being spent to investigate it….most likely in vain for reasons mentioned above. My personal belief is the onset of the last solar minimum brought an end to magnetic reconnection until the sun re-enters a higher state of activity. My belief on “the pause” is that heat from the oceans have been bolstering temperatures for the last 6 to 7 years after temps finished stabilizing from the grand maximum. I believe that ocean heat is about dissipated as the anticipated El Niño has minimal effect. If my calculations are correct, in 2-4 years… climate change will be settled science – primarily solar driven.
    Thanks for the work and contributions here folks…. It’s fun to read.

  10. luysii says:
    August 15, 2014 at 4:57 pm
    Here in New England, July and August so far have seemed unusually cool (to me). Is it? I’ve seen nothing in the press about this (assuming it’s true) as it would interfere with their narrative. Any thoughts?

    I’d say the same for southern New York. If not exceptionally cool then at least below norm.
    I’ve posted before about a late blooming of things that flower. I’ll add that sensate temperatures haven’t always matched measured (official) temperatures.

  11. kenin
    I believe the “salting” of the ocean with iron oxides to stimulate the production of plankton to assist in the restoration of salmon fisheries qualifies as a climate change modifying experiment that felt the wrath of the Canadian Council. If I read the post correctly, the fish supply increased as the plankton increase since the plankton fed the fodder fish which in turn fed the salmon which in turn allowed an increase in salmon harvested. A trivial by-product of the experiment was to decrease atmospheric CO2 which was gobbled up by the plankton. My understanding, the Canadian Council was incensed at the loss of CO2 without their permission. CO2 measurements weren’t obtained since the experiment was to gain fish, but, since the Canadian Council perceived a CO2 modifying effect, and especially without their convent, which they wouldn’t have given, they shut down the operation of “salting” the oceans to ensure that their authority and jurisdiction was maintained. Vi va la Canada. Government rules!

  12. A Climate Crusader’s Comeuppance

    Billionaire Tom Steyer’s vow to make politicians toe the green line isn’t working out so well. . . . stories about his pledge noted that he might target Louisiana Democrat Mary Landrieu for her support of the Keystone XL pipeline. . . .Democratic leaders instead flipped out, and quickly schooled Mr. Steyer in the political realities of red states and the magic Senate number of “51.” Within days of the pledge, Steyer operative Chris Lehane was tamping down the Landrieu story, insisting Mr. Steyer did not plan to “tea party” Democrats. . . .
    It’s great to have $100 million to blow on midterms; not so great when you can’t spend it in Louisiana, North Carolina, Arkansas, Alaska, Montana, Virginia, Kentucky or Georgia—for starters.
    Mr. Steyer was left the scraps of a few Senate candidates who do oppose Keystone: Colorado’s Mark Udall ; Iowa’s Bruce Braley ; New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen. Only to then discover that few would benefit from his help—at least not in a state like Iowa, where support for the jobs-creating Keystone project is thunderous. . . .his NextGen meltdown is a lesson for liberal Democrats and activists looking to impose an anti-energy agenda on the country. The public isn’t buying it.

  13. You guys with all the cold weather up there….the leaves on your trees are already turning for fall
    Experts: Record Cold Summer Leads To Changing Leaves In August
    PITTSBURGH (KDKA)- Pittsburgh is dealing with one of the coldest summers in history, and it’s having an effect on the trees.
    Friday morning temperatures fell into the 40s in Western Pennsylvania.
    Meteorologists say these cold temperatures are leading to trees changing colors in the middle of August.
    http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2014/08/15/experts-cold-summer-leads-to-changing-leaves-in-august/

  14. two ideas
    – how about a cartoon: a man on the street wearing a sandwich board which reads “I have been told the end is nigh”
    – in 2008 Obama’s acceptance speech final paragraph had “this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal”, which resonated hugely with those that voted for him. –My point is, maybe we could keep pointing out the craziness/bad science of this (since the oceans rise throughout interglacials and when that slows or stops that almost surely means some kind of ice age). Maybe go for the core of their fantasy archetypes.

  15. David L. Hagen says:
    August 15, 2014 at 6:14 pm
    There are limits to the power of money in politics. The number of candidates who have been able literally to buy their offices is relatively small. Corzine comes to mind.
    Were it otherwise, then we wouldn’t need elections. The candidate with the most money would be declared the winner.

  16. I have been trying to make the point about the link between CO2 and OLR for some time without much success. Falling OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) is not a symptom or prediction of AGW theory; IT IS THE AGW THEORY. Indeed the most succinct defintion of AGW would be “rising CO2 drives down OLR”. CO2 only causes warming by reducing energy loss to space ie; driving down OLR; thus causing earth to retain more energy and warm. Yet between 1970 and 2010 according to NOAA OLR has been rising not falling. If OLR is rising instead of falling while CO2 is rising then either AGW is incorrect or something else is exerting a dominant reverse effect in which case man’s use of fossil fuels is far from the dominant impact on our climate. One can’t simply argue that OLR is rising because Earth’s temperature is rising because, in that case, what is driving further warming? The planet only warms while energy input exceeds energy loss and if the energy loss is increasing not reducing there is no energy imbalance to drive further warming.
    This is not just a falsified prediction. I repeat falling OLR as CO2 rises IS the AGW theory. The finding of rising OLR coupled with rising CO2 entirely by itself falsifies the AGW theory.

  17. Across the US Southeast (Alabama, GA, SC, NC) mountains, it has been a very cool summer compared to every year since 1985.
    Can’t tell if that last storm coming east through Alabama two days ago was the last of the spring cold fronts, or the first of the coming winter cold fronts.

  18. 14 Aug: MLive Michigan: Better close your windows tonight or grab a blanket; Here’s why
    We better close our windows before we go to bed tonight, or put a blanket on the bed.
    It is going to be a cold night for the middle of August…
    Most spots will cool down well into the 40s. A few spots may get as cold as the upper 30s…
    If you leave your windows open in your bedroom tonight, you may have a dream that you are freezing. Your dream my come true.
    http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/08/better_close_your_windows_toni.html#incart_2box
    14 Aug: UK Telegraph: UK weather: Wrap up, big chill on the way in Bertha’s wake
    Temperatures are expected to plunge this weekend as the Bertha weather system brings down cold air from Scandinavia in its trail
    Temperatures are expected to plunge across the country with chilly winds pushing the mercury close to freezing…
    The Met Office said the mercury could drop as low as 2C (35.6F) in Scotland by Monday, with English lows of around 8C (46.4F) in Cumbria and the Lake District…
    Leon Brown, forecaster for The Weather Channel, said the cooler outlook is partly due to a shift in position of the jet stream.
    He said the cold flow of air could remain in place for up to a fortnight, dampening hopes for a warm and sunny August Bank Holiday.
    He said: “We are entering a cool phase of weather across the UK, and for that matter also much of northern and central Europe…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11034528/UK-weather-Wrap-up-big-chill-on-the-way-in-Berthas-wake.html

  19. David L. Hagen says:
    August 15, 2014 at 6:14 pm
    A Climate Crusader’s Comeuppance
    Isn’t there some kind of a law against being able to brush democracy aside and buy candidates?

  20. I’ve noticed much of this summer than there has been considerable rainfall in Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, Arizona. We used to hear a lot about the falling water table in the Ogalla aquifer and that irrigation from aquifers in general are contributing to sea level rise. Well it seems to me that this year, we must be recharging the Ogalla and southwest aquifers big time, while at the same time, not having to draw appreciable water in this relative abundance from the skies. Anyone have any data on this – it would make a good post.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer
    This, today’s image, is even less than typical over the past half a year or so.
    http://www.intelliweather.com/popup/nat_rad_popup.htm

  21. A. Smith says:
    August 15, 2014 at 5:57 pm
    Still waiting for someone here to bring up the massive project on magnetic reconnection that is going on now. Maybe it was and I missed it? The way I see it, magnetic reconnection is not likely to occur anytime in the near future due to the lack of sufficient solar forcing ( been this way for about 8 years).
    Magnetic reconnection goes on every day, all the time. The easiest way to see this is to watch the magnetic field in the Earth’s polar caps. There you can see the continuous signature of reconnection every day. We have known this since 1968 http://www.leif.org/research/DMI-R6.pdf or http://www.leif.org/research/JA078i013p02064.pdf

  22. luysii says:
    August 15, 2014 at 4:57 pm

    Here in New England, July and August so far have seemed unusually cool (to me). Is it? I’ve seen nothing in the press about this (assuming it’s true) as it would interfere with their narrative. Any thoughts?

    It’s seemed cool to me, but the NWS data says we’ve been pretty close to average in Concord NH. From climate summaries, e.g.

    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=gyx
    Mon Avg  Dep
    Apr 44.1 -1.0
    May 56.2  0.4
    Jun 65.3  0.4
    Jul 70.4  0.4
    Aug 67.5 -2.2  (So far)
    

    We’ve had little hot weather (fine by me) and haven’t really needed the common breaking of the heat in mid-August with the first cool blast from the north.

  23. pat
    All things considered, don’t you think a storm about to hit the UK shouldn’t have a Muslim name?

  24. Les Johnson says:
    August 15, 2014 at 4:25 pm
    Mark Perry reposts Matt Ridley’s excellent essay on why we should be cheerful.
    ===========
    That’s all well and good, but don’t put the pressure on.

  25. michael hammer says:
    August 15, 2014 at 6:49 pm
    I have been trying to make the point about the link between CO2 and OLR for some time without much success. Falling OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) is not a symptom or prediction of AGW theory; IT IS THE AGW THEORY…

    Published prior to the recent era of political partisanship, H.W. Ellsaesser’s 1988 paper describes the effect on surface temperature of raising the mean elevation of the CO2 “greenhouse blanket” through the narrow “15-micron” infared window as being far from certain. A different view on the climatic effect of CO2 summarizes by noting that the ice ages may have left too little CO2 to adequately support life.
    .
    Indeed, The role of terrestrial plants in limiting atmospheric CO2 decline over the past 24 million years, Nature 460, 85-88 (2 July 2009) doi:10.1038/nature08133 Letter, documents peer reviewed research that concludes grasslands are the result of the CO2 suffocation of trees. Plate tectonics were responsible for CO2-depleting mineral formation, especially, the uplift of the Himalayas. CO2 levels dropped to 200-250 ppm from 1000-1500 ppm as forests starved for CO2, gave way to prairies.
    Of course, many reasons could be behind changes in outgoing long wave radiation. For example, decreased ultraviolet radiation from the sun could decrease total sunlight striking the earth. Deep Solar Minimum describes the solar minimum of 2009 as the deepest in a century. A History of Solar Activity over Millennia(2008), by Ilya G. Usoskin, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit), University of Oulu, Finland, concludes, in part, “The modern level of solar activity (after the 1940s) is very high, corresponding to a grand maximum.”

  26. Gary Pearse says:
    August 15, 2014 at 7:27 pm (Asking about)

    David L. Hagen says:
    August 15, 2014 at 6:14 pm
    A Climate Crusader’s Comeuppance

    Isn’t there some kind of a law against being able to brush democracy aside and buy candidates?

    Nah.
    (But is IS illegal if you have conservative interests.
    Or have ever worked with an oil company.
    Or are trying to support a “Republican” …
    But, if your billions support democrats? Nothing is illegal, immoral, unethical, or fattening.

  27. jonesingforozone says:
    August 15, 2014 at 8:34 pm
    A History of Solar Activity over Millennia(2008), by Ilya G. Usoskin, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit), University of Oulu, Finland, concludes, in part, “The modern level of solar activity (after the 1940s) is very high, corresponding to a grand maximum.”
    That is very likely not correct. The modern level is not significantly higher compared to the past 250 years http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Activity-Temperature-Anomalies.png No Grand Modern Maximum

    • Leif Svalgaard says:
      August 15, 2014 at 8:47 pm
      That is very likely not correct. The modern level is not significantly higher compared to the past 250 years…

      A very compelling graph that supports the grand maximum conclusion is Fig. 17.
      Could you provide the document index of the paper or abstract corresponding to the graph you posted?
      Thanks.

  28. Leif Svalgaard says:
    August 15, 2014 at 8:47 pm
    “That is very likely not correct.”….
    =============
    Leif pulls a punch !!

  29. trafamadore says:
    Last night Keating finished off the last of his challenges. Noone got the 30K.
    Was that Peter Noone? The singer from Herman’s Hermits? Is he still around?

  30. A very unusual and very welcome rain event is developing now over western NSW and SE Queensland. Quoting forecaster Chris Webb

    “Over the two days we’ve had 38 millimetres at Tibooburra and since 9 AM (AEST) yesterday so that’s about 21 hours, 30 millimetres at White Cliffs also in the far north west of the state, 21 millimetres at Wilcannia,” he said.
    There’s also been nearly 13 mm at Bourke and about 12 at Cobar.

    These are normally very dry areas indeed, rain is being drawn in from the Coral sea and the Bight and the system is slowly moving towards the east when more heavy rain can be expected if it moves off the coast where SST’s are still elevated http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sst_weekly.gif
    Unprecedented inland rain for August in Australia, but, to repeat to repeat my enthusiasm, very, very welcome.
    This water vapour loop is the stuff of dreams http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=12&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

  31. Since it’s an open thread….
    Delingpole’s latest
    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/08/15/Mann-v-Steyn-if-this-trial-ever-goes-ahead-global-warming-is-toast
    “This is what I’ve always found so thoroughly enjoyable about the global warming debate. It’s not one of those issues where there’s right and wrong on both sides and it’s really a matter of opinion which one you favour. Quite simply it’s a very straightforward battle between, on the one hand a bunch of lying, greedy shysters, fanatical, misanthropic, anti-capitalist eco-loons, bent, grant-troughing scientists, grubby politicians and despicable, rent-seeking millionaires and billionaires; and on the other a handful of brave, honest, rigorous, seekers-after-truth.”

  32. Bit of an oopsie:
    StatsCan employee detected error after job numbers released
    Statistics Canada faces questions about its reputation after it dramatically revised its jobs number. Error blamed on computer programming mistake.
    http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2014/08/15/statscan_employee_detected_error_after_job_numbers_released.html#
    Way back in the 1980s I was hauled into the Vice-Principal’s office when I wrote an article entitled “High Speed Idiots Delay Report Cards” for our school paper about our school’s computer screwing up our marks.
    I’m sure that the Super Accurate Climate Models work on some other method, though. Cough. Cough.

  33. jonesingforozone says:
    August 15, 2014 at 9:20 pm
    A very compelling graph that supports the grand maximum conclusion is Fig. 17.
    But is wrong, nevertheless. E.g. compare it with the result from 10Be [produced by cosmic rays] as shown in slide 6 of http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20solar%20activity.pdf
    Could you provide the document index of the paper or abstract corresponding to the graph you posted?
    The sunspot number graph comes from this paper [peer-reviewed to appear in space Science Reviews shortly] http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1407/1407.3231.pdf Figure 28

  34. pat says: August 15, 2014 at 7:00 pm
    … 14 Aug: UK Telegraph: UK weather: Wrap up, big chill on the way in Bertha’s wake. …

    I’m currently at the World Science Fiction Convention in London, and I can confirm that it’s been cold and wet so far. I’ll report later on a couple global warming panels they’re having this week.

  35. read it all:
    16 Aug: The Australian: Graham Lloyd: Solar cycles linked to climate pause, assist in coastal planning
    LONG-TERM natural cycles linked to the sun could explain the pause in global average surface temperatures and offer a better guide for coastal planners to predict sea level rises, storm surges and natural disasters.
    Publication of the findings in Ocean and Coastal Management follows a decade-long struggle for the lead author, Australian scientist Robert Baker from the University of New England, whose work has challenged the orthodox ­climate science view that carbon dioxide is the dominant factor in climate change.
    Dr Baker, a former chair of the International Geographical Commission on Modelling Geographic Systems, said what had been a purely scientific debate on climate change until 2005 had become political. His latest paper with his PhD student faced a ­series of ­objections from scientists close to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change but was published after an 11-member peer review panel voted 8-3 to publish. An editorial that accompanied the paper said it was an “excellent ­example of how to approach these complex issues that are now vulnerable to often irrational and heated debate instead of the ­required proper scientific discussion”…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/solar-cycles-linked-to-climate-pause-assist-in-coastal-planning/story-e6frg6xf-1227026053386

  36. Here’s something I’d like people to think about when we consider the effects of the sun on climate. The nature of the sun is poorly understood. I’ve been doing some reading with this in mind and came across this interesting article on the theory that combines an electric/plasma sun with the fusion model. See for yourselves:
    http://milesmathis.com/sunhole.html

  37. Mike McMillan says:
    August 15, 2014 at 9:39 pm
    Was the IPCC AR5 the best selling work of science fiction last year?

  38. I would like to know, what people with good background in physics and engineering think about the prospects of EMdrive (Robert Shawyer’s theory and its practical implications). Slashdot is too much of an ego competition forum to be informative, while Guido Fetta’s explanations are probably wrong since his drive works worse than the one built exactly according to Shaywer, and since Fetta’s idea about slots in the resonator has been proven irrelevant.

  39. Alan Poirier says:
    August 15, 2014 at 9:57 pm
    Here’s something I’d like people to think about when we consider the effects of the sun on climate. The nature of the sun is poorly understood. I’ve been doing some reading with this in mind and came across this interesting article on the theory that combines an electric/plasma sun with the fusion model. See for yourselves:
    It is entertaining, but is completely wrong. Too many things are nonsense to explain here [and is that really necessary? people here can think for themselves, no?]

  40. jonesingforozone says:
    August 15, 2014 at 9:59 pm
    The chief complaint of these papers is that the sunspot number needs recalibration.
    Perhaps the sunspot number “reconstructed from 14C by Usoskin et al. (2007) using geomagnetic data by Yang et al. (2000)” provides such?

    The paper I referred you to provides the re-calibration. Read it.

    • Leif Svalgaard says:
      August 15, 2014 at 10:18 pm
      A much shorter version is here: http://www.leif.org/research/CEAB-Cliver-et-al-2013.pdf
      The recalibration is already in hand. Publication of the final series is scheduled for Spring next year.

      Your paper certainly has far fewer footnotes than does Usoskin’s.
      Note that Usoskin’s method does not rely upon the amplitude and the period of individual solar cycles to measure solar minima and maxima.

  41. Totally shocked by the hate campaign against Russia and totally shocked by the failure of the Netherlands to investigate the shoot down of MH17.
    – The Netherlands were among the first to blame Russia and local rebels without bringing forward any verifiable evidence.
    – The Netherlands have given the black box to the highly prejudicial and interested party of Great Britain.
    – The Netherlands have not asked yet for air traffic control communication and radar data from Kiev.
    – The Netherlands have not asked yet for communication with the Ukrainian fighter plane only about 3-5 km away from the shoot down.
    – The Netherlands has not asked yet for US surveillance data and satellite photos, despite at least one US spy satellites was above the incident at shoot down time and AWACS airplanes in the air.
    – The Netherlands have not protested against Kiev’s shelling of the crash site and even shelling of observers.
    – The Netherlands have not protested against Kiev for causing a fire by shelling and destroying evidence such as fuselage parts.
    – The Netherlands have not protested against Kiev’s decision to end the seize fire at the crash site, jeopardizing the remaining pieces of evidence.
    Worse, there is now convincing evidence, that Ukrainian forces shot down the airplane.
    In a BBC video, eye witnesses reported about the second (Ukrainian) plane shooting down MH17, and none of them reported to have seen a surface to air missile or even its exhaust fumes.

    Further, there are reports from Robert Parry, an award winning investigative journalist with excellent connections into US intelligence that (quotes):
    “…some U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that the rebels and Russia were likely not at fault and that it appears Ukrainian government forces were to blame.
    This judgment – at odds with what President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have expressed publicly – is based largely on the absence of U.S. government evidence that Russia supplied the rebels with a Buk anti-aircraft missile system that would be needed to hit a civilian jetliner flying at 33,000 feet, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.”
    “But I’m now told that U.S. intelligence analysts have largely dismissed the “defector” possibility and are concentrating on the scenario of a willful Ukrainian shoot-down of the plane, albeit possibly not knowing its actual identity.”
    “The source added that the U.S. intelligence analysis does not implicate top Ukrainian officials, such as President Petro Poroshenko or Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, suggesting that the attack may have been the work of more extremist factions, possibly even one of the Ukrainian oligarchs who have taken an aggressive approach toward prosecuting the war against the ethnic Russian rebels in the east.”
    http://consortiumnews.com/2014/08/03/flight-17-shoot-down-scenario-shifts/
    A few days earlier, 9 former US intelligence officers wrote an open letter on Robert Parry’s website, asking president Obama to release evidence:
    http://consortiumnews.com/2014/07/29/obama-should-release-ukraine-evidence/
    They stated and signed with their names, that secretary Kerry did not tell the truth in Syria (quote “We are hearing indirectly from some of our former colleagues that what Secretary Kerry is peddling does not square with the real intelligence.”), and reminded of the shoot down of KAL007 in 1983, when the US did not report the truth as well, and even altered the transcript of the communication to “paint Russia black”.
    Earlier, US intelligence sources also leaked information about a BUK, supposed to have shot down the airplane (while now the focus may have shifted towards the Ukrainian fighter plane)
    “What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms.
    The source said CIA analysts were still not ruling out the possibility that the troops were actually eastern Ukrainian rebels in similar uniforms but the initial assessment was that the troops were Ukrainian soldiers. There also was the suggestion that the soldiers involved were undisciplined and possibly drunk, since the imagery showed what looked like beer bottles scattered around the site, the source said.”
    http://consortiumnews.com/2014/07/20/what-did-us-spy-satellites-see-in-ukraine/

  42. 15 Aug: Heartland Inst: James M. Taylor: Poll Shows People Just Don’t Care about Global Warming
    Americans don’t really care whether public officials attempt to address global warming, according to a new poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
    In a survey of more than 1,000 Americans, only 21 percent say they follow the issue closely. A much greater number – 36 percent – say they pay little or no attention at all. The rest merely follow the issue “somewhat closely.”…
    http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2014/08/15/poll-shows-people-just-dont-care-about-global-warming

  43. Manfred: most everyone here has been dealing with the CAGW disinformation machinery for a long time. We don’t need your world politics disinformation machinery, thank you very much.

  44. Antarctic hopefully over 16,000,000 sq K in 3 days.
    Arctic also seems to be growing now instead of melting ? another early freeze

  45. jonesingforozone says:
    August 16, 2014 at 12:02 am
    Note that Usoskin’s method does not rely upon the amplitude and the period of individual solar cycles to measure solar minima and maxima.
    Because of the long residence time of 14C the activity has to be modeled on a longer time scale than individual cycles. This is, of course, a severe handicap, but the real problem is the same as with the hockey stick: appending the sunspot number observed on the Sun to the cosmic ray record. For this, it is important to have the correct sunspot number, and that is where his method fails. Now, there are many people who would want a Grand Maximum as support for their own agenda [e.g. ‘it is the sun, Stupid’] so we expect widespread ‘rearguard’ action trying to maintain the notion of a Grand Maximum. To wit, this very exchange.

  46. “Now, there are many people who would want a Grand Maximum as support for their own agenda [e.g. ‘it is the sun, Stupid’] so we expect widespread ‘rearguard’ action trying to maintain the notion of a Grand Maximum. To wit, this very exchange.”
    Or, to put it another way:-
    Now, there are many people who would want to deny a Grand Maximum as support for their own agenda [e.g. ‘the sun has no effect on the climate, Stupid’] so we expect widespread ‘offensive’ action trying to deny the notion of a Grand Maximum. To wit, this very exchange.
    PS I am not a solar physicist, I am a retired former railway engineer (who doesn’t write soft-core porn) who would like to understand more but who is somewhat put off by the eternal bickering. It’s fun, sure, but not very instructive.

  47. luysii says: August 15, 2014 at 4:57 pm Here in New England, July and August so far have seemed unusually cool (to me).
    Yeah, what happened to the “dog days of August” around here? I don’t have air conditioning and I’m accustomed to at least a couple week’s worth of nights hot enough to favor putting a fan in exhaust mode in the window of another room. This summer there’s been only 2 or 3 such nights warm enough for that. It makes it very difficult for me to believe the NCDC http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/19/03/tmin/3/08/1980-2014

  48. trafamadore:
    At August 15, 2014 at 8:31 pm you write

    Last night Keating finished off the last of his challenges. Noone got the 30K.

    Anyone wanting to read each challenge and his response to it can access each of them from here by clicking on it.
    My submission was titled “Null Hypothesis” and it, Keatings’s reply, and my response to that reply can be accessed by clicking on that title. My response to that reply says

    Mr Keating:
    My correct statements that I had provided the required response to your bet were – and remain – appropriate when submitting a response to you when you alone set the challenge, you alone would pay if you admitted your challenge is answered, and you alone have decided that you alone will agree if your challenge is met or not.
    And your excuses for refusing to pay are pathetic.
    Ice cores lack the temporal resolution to show what you claim.
    Atmospheric CO2 concentration is not a climate behaviour.
    Ice cores are proxy data not absolute measurements: you are comparing ‘chalk and cheese’.
    The scientific method defines the scientific null hypothesis, not me.
    You are denying the scientific method and promoting your superstitious belief in AGW as a method to excuse your failure to pay-up for losing your bet. But I expected that.
    Richard

    Richard

  49. Mods:
    I made a post that has vanished: it has not been reported as being in moderation.
    Please let me know if it is not in the ‘bin’ when you check.
    Richard
    [Rescued & posted. ~mod.]

  50. Manfred: “The first casualty of war is the truth”
    Nice try, but there’s really only room for one conspiracy theory on this site 😉

  51. @ richardscourtney on August 16, 2014 at 12:37 am:
    I’ve had one waiting since 9:38 pm. As the song goes, “I think we’re alone now.”

  52. This is interesting. Note cyclic abrupt climate change events in the paleo record (for example the 8200 year before present cooling event) including the termination of interglacial periods, correlate with cyclic abrupt unexplained changes to the geomagnetic field intensity and orientation.
    http://news.yahoo.com/earths-magnetic-field-weakening-10-times-faster-now-121247349.html
    Earth’s Magnetic Field Is Weakening 10 Times Faster Now
    “…Previously, researchers estimated the field was weakening about 5 percent per century, but the new data revealed the field is actually weakening at 5 percent per decade, or 10 times faster than thought. (WIlliam: 10 times faster than physically possible if the cause of the geomagnetic field changes is changes at the liquid core/solid core boundary) As such, rather than the full flip occurring in about 2,000 years, as was predicted, the new data suggest it could happen sooner. Floberghagen hopes that more data from Swarm will shed light on why the field is weakening faster now.”
    William: Swarm is the name of three specialized satellites that were launched by the European space agency in November of 2013. The Swarm satellites are capable of measuring the entire geomagnetic field with laboratory accuracy.
    What the first release of the Swarm data has confirmed is an astonishing: An extraordinarily rapid and large drop in the field intensity of the geomagnetic field.
    The geomagnetic field intensity which had been dropping at 5% per century (the geomagnetic field intensity in the South Atlantic field anomaly has for example dropped 60% which is consistent with the start of a geomagnetic excursion), is now starting sometime around 1995 for unexplained reasons dropping at 5% per decade, ten times faster.
    This is astonishing – a paradox – due to the counter emf principal and the physics of the deep earth. By Maxwell’s equations applied to a conductive liquid, a counter emf and a counter electric current is generated if there is a change at the liquid core/solid core boundary. Due to the counter emf principal deep core initiated changes to the geomagnetic field take thousands of years to make large changes to the geomagnetic field intensity and configuration.
    In the last decade the geomagnetic specialists have found unequivocal proxy evidence of significant geomagnetic field changes that are ball park 10,000 times too fast and 100,000 times to large in magnitude to be caused by a core based mechanism. These abrupt significant changes to the geomagnetic field are called archaeomagnetic jerks (this is confusing terminology as an archaemagnetic ‘jerk’ geomagnetic field change is orders of magnitude too large and too fast to be caused by changes at the liquid core/solid core boundary which is the assumed cause of geomagnetic jerks. i.e. geomagnetic jerk and archaeomagnetic jerk must therefore have completely different causes.)
    The hypothesis to explain paleo geomagnetic field record changes that are called archaeomagnetic jerks (the suffix archae is used as the phenomena was found by studying field changes recorded in fired tiles that were laid in chalets and palaces.) that are ball park 10,000 times to fast to be caused by a core based mechanism is that there is suddenly a plume of liquid from the core moving into the mantel.
    The problem with the plume hypothesis is there is no mechanism to suddenly cause liquid core plumes moving into the mantel to explain the observed changes to the geomagnetic field in the last 10 years, using the plume hypothesis. The sudden observed change of the northern magnetic drift velocity and the American continents magnetic field intensity drop would require there to be liquid core plumes moving into the mantel in Greenland and throughout the North and South American continents, starting roughly 10 years ago.
    http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/BardPapers/responseCourtillotEPSL07.pdf
    Response to Comment on “Are there connections between Earth’s magnetic field and climate?, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 253, 328–339, 2007” by Bard, E., and Delaygue, M., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., in press, 2007
    http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/files/Courtillot07EPSL.pdf
    Are there connections between the Earth’s magnetic field and climate? Vincent Courtillot, Yves Gallet, Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Frédéric Fluteau, Agnès Genevey
    http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/416/1/gubbinsd4.pdf
    Is the geodynamo process intrinsically unstable?
    What Caused Recent Acceleration of the North Magnetic Pole Drift?
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010EO510001/pdf
    The north magnetic pole (NMP) is the point at the Earth’s surface where the geomagnetic field is directed vertically downward. It drifts in time as a result of core convection, which sustains the Earth’s main magnetic field through the geodynamo process. During the 1990s the NMP drift speed suddenly increased from 15 kilometers per year at the start of the decade to 55 kilometers per year by the decade’s end. This acceleration was all the more surprising given that the NMP drift speed had remained less than 15 kilometers per year over the previous 150 years of observation.
    http://www.paleomag.net/members/qingsongliu/References/EPSL/Thouveny%20excursions%20since%20400%20ka%20EPSL%202004.pdf
    Three directional anomalies occurring during RPI lows chronologically correspond to the Laschamp excursion (42 kyr BP),the Blake event (115 to 122 kyr BP) and the Icelandic basin excursion (190 kyr BP). A fourth directional anomaly recorded at 290 kyr BP during another RPI low defines the ‘Portuguese margin excursion’. Four non-excursional RPI lows are recorded at the ages of the Jamaica/Pringle falls,Mamaku,Calabrian Ridge 1,and Levantine excursions. The RPI record is characterized by a periodicity of approx. 100 kyr, paleointensity lows often coinciding with the end of interglacial stages.

  53. Does anyone know where I can find historic tide heights for various locations around the world? I am especially interested in the arctic region for the period 1920 to 1950
    Any papers relating to this subject would also be of interest
    tonyb

  54. Heard the old expression politics is just showbiz for ugly people.
    Environmentalism always attract the very worthy, young, old hippy. new age types
    Well maybe environmentalism is politics for good looking people who cant act ,sing or dance.

  55. I would like to see a rebuttal of my proposition of how to provide FTL communication by what I call “The Hedgehog Method”. I asked the following question at http://physics.stackexchange.com but it was set on hold being off topic because it could not be answered by parroting mainstream physics and has now been deleted. Here it goes:

    Suppose we have a photon source at S capable to supply single photons and a detector able to catch and annihilate them. We place a focusing lens between source and detector so that the detector is at the focus; call that point A. We install a second lens beside the first one but some small distance d closer to the source and at a slightly other angle than the first. This creates a second focus, B, for each of the photons. Let’s place a screen between the two focus points to keep them from influencing each other.
    A detector placed at B will see the photons with probability p(S→B) and has an advantage in catching photons because they arrive earlier at B than at A. Average probability p(S→A) will be reduced accordingly when the detector is present at B to
    p(S→A) [ 1 – p(S→B) ] because that part consumed at B will not reach A.
    Questions:
    1. If we don’t use a detector but modulate the photon stream arriving at B by either catching photons or keep them alive, can we detect this modulation at A?
    2. If so, wouldn’t the modulation appear instantaneously at distance
    d = SA – SB from A and reach A in time d/c instead of AB/c?
    Using say, a “beam splitter” (or even mirrors) and glass fibers instead of lenses we can adjust the detector very near the point where the modulation appears. Let, for instance, be
    AB = 10 km and d = 10 mm, then we talk about
    10⁶ c.

    This would not even be ambitious to realize. There is room for speedup by some orders of magnitude.
    The method is very simple. There are no slits, interferences nor entanglements involved. Nor have one to use QMagic to help understand it. Just let each photon move in both directions toward the communication partners before applying a modulation on the shorter optical path. It’s almost depressing if no one had the idea before and tested it.
    My budget for investments into test-equipment is very limited but I would like to test the concept. I have a plan for an experiment measuring the signal speed. The setup I used failed so far because handling photons isn’t easy. There are usually too much of them so the detectors become saturated and reflect the remaining ones. This yield a lower signal to noise ratio, in my case less than 0.1% which my instruments couldn’t show.
    Some comments on the method would be greatly appreciated. Especially, if someone knows why it will not work. Or if someone has a laboratory and some spare time…

  56. TobiasN says:August 15, 2014 at 6:31 pm


    two ideas
    – how about a cartoon: a man on the street wearing a sandwich board which reads “I have been told the end is nigh””

    Tobias, I think it would read better if it said: “The end is Nye”

  57. Richard Courtney,
    Thanks for the link to Keating’s fake offer. The comments are very interesting.
    Keating routinely labels people he disagrees with as “deniers”. Therefore, his mind was already made up, and he never had any intention of paying anything.

  58. Manfred says:
    August 15, 2014 at 10:27 pm
    “In a BBC video, eye witnesses reported about the second (Ukrainian) plane shooting down MH17, and none of them reported to have seen a surface to air missile or even its exhaust fumes.”
    Ah, that was quick; video already deleted.

  59. Mechanicsville, VA, less than 20 miles from the Center of the Universe (Ashland, VA–just ask the residents), has now had 24 consecutive days with temps below the long-term average for the date; in fact, 29 of the past 30 days have been below average. August, so far, is 5.7 degrees F below average. We’re supposed to experience warmer weather next week, thus breaking the below-average streak; but even so, temps won’t go far above average. This has been a cool, late spring heading into a coolish summer. For me, not a problem; I do hope, however, that the coming winter doesn’t continue the trend. Today is already predicted to be “fall-like”, though closer to average than recent days.
    People often compare current temperatures to “normal” temperatures. Normal is not the correct word, since we cannot assign a normal air temperature as we can (through long observation and experimentation) for the human body. August 1 had a high temp of 73 (average high 89) and a low of 63 (average low 69). Can we say that the Aug 1 average of 68 degrees F was abnormal? It was that cool because we got over an inch of rain that day. Is rain abnormal? Not in Virginia. Even an average temperature (more strictly, a mean) is not terribly meaningful, but at least it proceeds without trying to set a false norm or standard.

  60. Leif Svalgaard says:
    August 16, 2014 at 12:15 am
    Because of the long residence time of 14C the activity has to be modeled on a longer time scale than individual cycles…

    While your sunspot number may correctly show a decreasing averaged trend, you admit that solar activity has been a 100 year minimum, so that for the intervening years, Usoskin identifies a grand maximum of ~80 years.
    Its a simple matter of inflection points.

  61. Latitude says: August 15, 2014 at 6:17 pm Experts: Record Cold Summer Leads To Changing Leaves In August http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2014/08/15/experts-cold-summer-leads-to-changing-leaves-in-august/
    That prompted me to check NCDC which shows, (not surprisingly), no evidence of a cooling trend. But is it only my browser or does everyone else see a ~slight~ problem with the temperatures reported in their chart for Pittsburgh?
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/36/USW00094823/tmin/2/08/1950-2014
    What it’s plotting on my screen, (I know they are doctoring the data but….): http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y48/mikeishere/whattheheycag.gif

  62. Harry Passfield says:
    August 16, 2014 at 1:37 am
    TobiasN says:August 15, 2014 at 6:31 pm

    two ideas
    – how about a cartoon: a man on the street wearing a sandwich board which reads “I have been told the end is nigh”
    Tobias, I think it would read better if it said: “The end is Nye”

    I envision a group of men (a Team) with various climate related end of the world sayings on their sandwich boards and some small children pointing and laughing. Is Josh in the house?

  63. What would have to happen to change your mind? What evidence would have to exist to get you to say “Hey the global warming nuts may be right”? Just something to think about.

  64. Anybody see all the west coast marine biologists screaming about a widespread massive intertidal zone die-off ?
    Too much garbage mixed in with the data but still of interest… and just WAY too much lying by TEPCO about Fukushima contamination extent.

  65. Speaking of a garbage. Isn’t it interesting that our oceans or supposed to a cesspool of garbage, yet when that plane went down a few months ago, every time they spotted a piece of cardboard floating they thought it was plane debris?? Watt up with that?

  66. kenin says:
    August 15, 2014 at 5:28 pm
    I would really appreciate some comments on this. Thank you
    http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/W-5/page-1.html
    ==========
    as I read the Act it means that if you engage in weather modification activities you must inform the government. cloud seeding for example comes to mind as an activity you would need to report.
    failure to report carries a $1000 fine and/or 6 months in jail. the government is not obliged to keep the reports confidential. the public can request them.
    kenin, the next step would be to request the government to make these reports available to you, so you can see what sort of weather modification has been taking place.

  67. ferdberple says:
    August 16, 2014 at 6:26 am
    kenin says:
    August 15, 2014 at 5:28 pm
    I would really appreciate some comments on this. Thank you
    http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/W-5/page-1.html
    ==========
    as I read the Act it means that if you engage in weather modification activities you must inform the government.

    Geez. Based on the Alarmist/Warmist viewpoint, there isn’t much of anything we humans can do that doesn’t modify the weather in some manner.
    I guess Canadians need to stop exhaling CO2.
    You know, just to be sure.

  68. our oceans or supposed to a cesspool of garbage
    ====================
    we sailed across the pacific 25 years ago in a 40 foot boat and saw zero floating garbage. the reason if pretty straight forward. anything floating on the ocean quickly gets covered in life. as more and more grows on the underside it gets heavier and heavier and most of it will eventually start the long fall to the ocean bottom, where it will get covered over in time by the silt that rains down continually.
    we did however see plenty of plastic (rope, foam, bottles, flip-flops, etc) washed up on the shores of uninhabited tropical islands. it was pretty much all in bad shape from sun rot. it doesn’t degrade over night, but it does degrade eventually from the UV.
    in contrast, near the coast there is quite a bit of plastic. black plastic bags were a real problem in SE Asia as they float just under the surface and get caught up in propellers. the black resists UV.

  69. inMAGICn says:
    August 15, 2014 at 8:14 pm
    pat
    All things considered, don’t you think a storm about to hit the UK shouldn’t have a Muslim name?
    Muhammad Ali? Now there was a real hurricane. 🙂

  70. Rainer Bensch (aka Rabe) says:
    August 16, 2014 at 1:35 am
    I would like to see a rebuttal of my proposition of how to provide FTL communication by what I call “The Hedgehog Method”. I asked the following question at http://physics.stackexchange.com but it was set on hold being off topic because it could not be answered by parroting mainstream physics and has now been deleted.

    Try submitting it to halfbackery, at http://www.halfbakery.com/

  71. 45F two mornings in a row here in a frost hollow. The record for fairly nearby Hagerstown, MD on this date was 47F set in 1927 (they had 48F this morning).

  72. Open thread, so I’ll throw this astrophysical question out that’s been bugging me.
    Black holes have a gravitational force so strong that light can’t get past the event horizon. Fine. But if that is so, how can gravity itself get past this point, assuming it “travels” at the speed of light, carried by the purported “graviton”?

  73. I guess Canadians need to stop exhaling CO2.
    =========
    looks like 30 millions of us are on the hook for jail time for failing to report. heaven help us if “climate change” Trudeau becomes emperor. the economic devastation suffered by western Canada 30+ years ago under his father’s National Energy Program will return with a vengeance.
    Jealous of Western Canada making money from oil, in 1980 the Liberals enacted the National Energy Program, and paid companies 102% of costs as an incentive to drill on Federal Land instead of Provincial Land. Needless to say, the result was a huge increase in the number of dry holes drilled at taxpayers expense.
    The program was a blatant money grab by the Federal Government from the West. Tax changes resulted in some 1700 oil rigs leaving Alberta for points south of the border. Western prosperity was wiped out over night and the Reform Party was born, which eventually went on to combine with the Conservative Party and currently forms the Federal Government in Canada.
    However, resentment over western prosperity still runs high in the east. The cowboys in Alberta are once again making money, which doesn’t sit well with the old money back east. The Old Money in the east would rather cut of their noses to spite their face than see anyone doing better than they are.
    The imbalance in population between east and west again sets the scene for the majority using their votes to try and grab the wealth of the minority. All fed by the dozen companies and old families that control 90% of the wealth of Canada.

  74. jonesingforozone says:
    August 16, 2014 at 3:21 am
    Its a simple matter of inflection points.
    A little thought will tell you that it is not a simple matter of inflection points. The issue is what activity is between the points. And whether the maxima are Grand or just ordinary.

    • Leif Svalgaard says:
      August 16, 2014 at 7:14 am
      A little thought will tell you that it is not a simple matter of inflection points. The issue is what activity is between the points. And whether the maxima are Grand or just ordinary.

      However, using your 21 year centered mean, Usoskin may still have considered the twentieth century a grand maximum of solar activity given that ~80 years of smoothed group numbers were 50 or more.
      Your revised group numbers are based upon a downward revision in the late twentieth century sunspot group numbers as provided by Hoyt, D.V.; K.H. Schatten (1998) whose unrevised series Usoskin also uses for the portion of his reconstruction that follows the year 1610.

  75. @Kenin. Sounds like rain dances are regulated now. And, building a business that causes any CO2 emissions would qualify also, maybe. But since CO2 only affects climate, not weather, maybe they would be excepted.

  76. But if that is so, how can gravity itself get past this point, assuming it “travels” at the speed of light, carried by the purported “graviton”?
    =============
    the speed of gravity has never been experimentally resolved.

  77. UK weather forecast for coming week is predicting around 5 – 6 deg C below average… and not a mention of Global Warming making it so Cold.
    That Arch-Propagandist for Global Warming, the BBC, continues to project temperatures outside of London as 2 -3 deg C lower than in London itself. It consistently does so throughout the year but otherwise, rather inconsistently in any programmes on AGW, follows the Warmist line that UHI is only around 1 deg C …………

  78. @Kenin 5.28pm.
    Good find.
    Probably bureaucratic butt covering from the attempt to stimulate plankton with iron dumping at sea.
    However as written, 6 months in jail or $1000 fine for holding a rain dance without filing the appropriate forms.
    I thought Monty Python was satire, these humourless twits think it is an instruction manual..
    So my lightning machine, designed to wreak havoc upon Ottawa,will be OK as long as I file the proper forms.
    Sarc off.
    This is the decay of bureaucratic overreach, what is not Permitted(In triplicate) is forbidden.
    Unless our elected and appointed nobility give us permission, then breathing is a crime.
    The cost of these “Helpers” is destroying civil society, tribalism will increase because it is less expensive to productive people.
    Until we get these parasites off of our backs and out of our affairs, attempts at productive actives will have negative returns.
    Basic maths, I am not going to reinvest in work from which I reap no benefit.
    If constructive behaviour results in a net loss, due to the depredation of society, I will have to change my ways and join the bandits.Or retreat to the shelter of the tribe.
    Human nature rules.
    He who builds well knows destruction is so much easier.

  79. To whom ever read the Weather Mod Act,
    thank you for your input, it is appreciated. The act is a clear example of how the intentional tampering of the atmosphere is occurring. My understanding of whom it is that may be directly involved in such an act are as follows:
    -insurance industry
    -Municipal Governments
    -the military
    -ski resort owner/operators
    -other sinister reasons
    -Agriculture Industry
    Now, to actually prove something of this nature to be a criminal act, would have to involve damages of some kind. So how does weather modification negatively effect you?
    Here’s one example:
    Lightning suppression. Lightning is good for the atmosphere and soil in ways you can’t imagine. Plants grow better following a thunderstorm vs a regular shower. Wouldn’t that be better for your garden/farm? Or maybe your town floods because they sprayed just prior to a storm to increase rainfall amounts so the local reservoir gets a topping up. And what about ozone?
    I would say that is criminal. Any act of weather mod is simply for fictional reasons; and what do I mean by fictional- THE ECONOMY AS WE KNOW IT.
    I understand that we influence the weather in some way or another, either by building large cities or clearing a forest etc etc. But to do so deliberately is nuts.
    This is not The Truman Show

  80. how can gravity itself get past this point
    ================
    universes are born from black holes in their parent universes. child universes occupy the same space as the parent, but have been accelerated far into the future as a result of time dilation. dark energy is the gravitational remnant of the parent universe as seen by the child universe. the number of universes in expanding exponentially, with all possibilities being played out. we see the interaction between the universes in quantum mechanics. will one of these possibilities eventually achieve perfection and succeed in its purpose, to create god? for god did not create the universe, the universe is seeking to create god.

  81. “The Hedgehog Method”
    ==============
    you need to communicate between A and B to observe the effect. consider the solution in which B has no knowledge of A.

  82. beng,
    There are no gravitons, they are a mythical concept, on par with many other myths that have no experimental evidence but firmly replaced scientific thinking in the modern metaphysics.
    Gravity is a curvature of the four-dimensional space-time continuum. The pace of time slows down in the presence of a large mass. The change in the pace of time has been measured on Earth; a one-foot increase in distance from the Earth’s surface is sufficient to register a minuscule but real change in the pace of time. What we experience as a “force of gravity” is an acceleration caused by the change in the pace of time, while equivalent acceleration creates a change in distance (space). In the presence of an extremely large mass, such as a black hole, time slows down to almost zero.
    Nobody really knows yet if the so-called “gravitational constant” is actually a constant. If it is a variable depending on the distance from large masses and energies (as I and many others suspect), then there would be no need in mythical “dark matter” at all.

  83. @ Kenin7:32
    Do not follow your logic.
    The act is an example of how intentional tampering of the atmosphere is occurring?
    What?
    The act is just another meaningless rule used to control us, divide us and rob us.
    Created for the benefit of our would be masters of the junior kleptocracy.
    One use for it, charge all wind turbine operators with breaking its statutes, as they are definitely modifying the weather downwind of their sails.
    Wonderful opportunity to legally steal.
    Just another tool of the increasingly corrupt fools and bandits who infest our governments.
    Another example,if I follow your comment correctly, would be prayer.
    What if you prayed to the wrong Gods just before your town was hit by flood/fire or famine?

  84. rogerknights,
    thanks for the link. After looking at some “ideas” there I’m not sure if the posters aren’t aware they are joking. That isn’t my intention.

  85. “Anyone have Al Gore’s or David Suzuki’s phone number?”
    Paul, if it’s already 11C then al-Gore is the LAST person I’d be calling. You could find it drop to -20C and cover you with a foot of snow, based on his latest effort in Canberra with the Skywhale.

  86. I have always wanted to ask this question, since it’s an open thread and all and I know there are warmists who are actual SCIENTISTS that frequent this site i’ll ask it here.
    How do you as a warmist with knowledge of the actual science live with yourself when there is so much evidence against the hypothesis of CAGW?
    When there is not a shred of evidence for CAGW? (GW and even AGW sure but I have never seen a shred of evidence for CAGW) Feel free to provide some actual evidence.
    When the economies of our countries are already in shambles and the poor will be the ones who suffer the most from carbon policies?
    When billions of people are starving and burning dung for heat/cooking and we are turning food into fuel?
    I refuse to believe that if you know the science you truly believe we need to take these drastic steps, So tell me how you wake up every morning and continue to support this unsubstantiated claim of CAGW.

  87. ferdberple,

    you need to communicate between A and B to observe the effect. consider the solution in which B has no knowledge of A.

    no, I didn’t speak of broadcasting, just point to point. All you need is a source supplying a constant amount of photons over time and some forward error correction.

  88. milodonharlani says:
    August 15, 2014 at 10:02 pm
    Mike McMillan says:
    August 15, 2014 at 9:39 pm
    Was the IPCC AR5 the best selling work of science fiction last year?
    Well 96% of scientists bought it.

  89. “What would have to happen to change your mind? What evidence would have to exist to get you to say ‘Hey the global warming nuts may be right’?”
    Well for a start, warming.

  90. In the there’s a silver lining in every black cloud vein, it appears that our boy Algore got stiffed by Al-Jazeera on his Current TV sale deal.
    http://www.cnsnews.com/mrctv-blog/dan-joseph/al-gore-files-lawsuit-against-al-jazeera
    “Former Vice-President, Al Gore has filed suit against Qatari-owned television network Al Jazeera.
    According to filings in a Delaware court, the lawsuit concerns Al Jazeera’s $500 million deal to buy Al Gore’s Current TV in 2012.
    According to Gore’s lawyer, David Boies, Al-Jazeera has failed to pay the full price agreed to when Gore sold Current TV.”
    I sit here with sympathetic tears splashing off my keyboard.
    Do I really need a sarc tag for this?

  91. @John Robertson
    you wrote:The act is just another meaningless rule used to control us, divide us and rob us.
    Are you aware of what an Act actually is?
    The Act created by Her Majesty the Queen; to govern and regulate its own internal affairs. It only applies to the body politic that created it. If you contract or are an employee of that body politic (corporate entity) then it would apply to you. Its by consent.
    Plain and simple: its suppose to keep them in line.
    Although your comment which i re-posted above, does have some truth to it.
    FYI: insurance companies in Alberta are heavily engaged in weather mod. They openly admit this and so does the media.
    Remember folks,
    the canadian constitution and all acts/statutes that fall under it, only apply to the corporation enforcing it. But clearly it doesn’t always work that way, because those thugs will always try imposing their corporate rule onto the rest of us.
    My rights do not come from the constitution…… i’m born with them.

  92. ferdberple says:
    August 16, 2014 at 7:06 am
    “looks like 30 millions of us are on the hook for jail time for failing to report. heaven help us if “climate change” Trudeau becomes emperor. the economic devastation suffered by western Canada 30+ years ago under his father’s National Energy Program will return with a vengeance.”
    Great opportunity to go short Canada.
    Does Soros finance Trudeau? He’s the biggest nation-shorter out there.

  93. ***
    Alexander Feht says:
    August 16, 2014 at 7:51 am
    beng,
    There are no gravitons, they are a mythical concept, on par with many other myths that have no experimental evidence but firmly replaced scientific thinking in the modern metaphysics.
    Gravity is a curvature of the four-dimensional space-time continuum.

    ***
    Thanks for the reply.
    I get the spacetime-curvature thing. Any g-force felt by an object is due to such curvature, whether it’s at the earth’s surface, an accelerating car, rocket, or my hand as I wip it back & forth in front of me.
    But from what I’ve read, gravity propagates at the speed of light (graviton or not), and thus the conundrum. If space-time is curved so much below the black hole event-horizon that space is “falling” inward faster than the speed of light, how can the gravity get past the horizon and affect matter/energy outside of it?

  94. “What would have to happen to change your mind? What evidence would have to exist to get you to say ‘Hey the global warming nuts may be right’?”
    Well for a start, warming.
    ==========================
    In all discussions about climate one must remember the global temperature goes up and it goes down in the short term. If it goes down over the next five or ten years it may mean something or it may not. Same if it were to go up. Even if the earth is on the verge of another glacial period it is not a continuous, smooth drop to the bottom. During the ups warmists will be insisting they are right, it has turned around as they knew it would. The current pause is providing some comfort, but we should probably be figuring out what we will say when temps go up as they surely will.

  95. @ Kenin 9:14.
    Still fails to make sense.
    These acts are always applied to the taxpayer.
    The only exemptions are for the Twits who enforce them, who always exempt themselves.
    I know this well having had these quasi legal acts imposed upon my trade for 20 plus years.
    What actual tampering with the atmosphere is happening?
    How is it measured?
    By whom?

  96. Robert Bissett,
    If global warming resumes, we simply point out that these same step changes have been happening since the LIA, as the planet recovers to its long-term average.
    Arch Warmist OPhil Jones, head of the UK’s CRU, shows how this works.

  97. Lunatics abound………….
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/07/climate-change-violence-occupy-earth
    “Call climate change what it is: violence
    Social unrest and famine, superstorms and droughts. Places, species and human beings – none will be spared. Welcome to Occupy Earth.
    Climate change is global-scale violence, against places and species as well as against human beings. Once we call it by name, we can start having a real conversation about our priorities and values. Because the revolt against brutality begins with a revolt against the language that hides that brutality.”
    http://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/a-radical-approach-to-the-climate-crisis
    “Clearly, we need to build a well-organized, broadly supported, yet tactically and strategically radical movement to demand proper climate policy. For such a movement to be effective it must use myriad tactics, from lawsuits and lobbying to direct action such as tree-sits, road blockades, and occupations aimed at the infrastructure of the fossil fuel industry. Only by disrupting the working of the political and economic system as a whole can we forge a consensus that ending the fossil fuel sector is essential.”
    Christian Parenti is a professor of sustainable development at the School for International Training, Graduate Institute. He is a contributing editor to the Nation and the author of four books, the most recent being Tropic of Chaos: Climate Change and the New Geography of Violence (Nation Books, July 2011).

  98. John, you are right about the acts being applied to the taxpayer. Persons are taxpayers in their game of monopoly.
    JOHN ROBERTSON and John Robertson are different. But this is a conversation for another day and might be a little to long-winded for posting. Hopefully everything in my last comment gets posted and not snipped.

  99. What is the temperature of an object where the maximum emission of infrared is at wavelength of 4.25 microns? I calculate it to be 416°C.
    I calculate 14 to 16 microns to be -66°C to -99°C.

  100. Open Thread? OK:
    Two liberals are walking down the road, when they come upon a man in the ditch. He has been badly beaten, and left for dead. He is moaning, groaning, bleeding.
    One liberal turns to the other and says, “Quick, we have to find the people who did this! They need help.”

  101. dbstealey:
    At August 16, 2014 at 1:45 am you write

    Richard Courtney,
    Thanks for the link to Keating’s fake offer. The comments are very interesting.
    Keating routinely labels people he disagrees with as “deniers”. Therefore, his mind was already made up, and he never had any intention of paying anything.

    It is worse than you say. Keating is clearly a delusional idiot. This is shown by his comment to me and my reply below my response to his failure to pay up. His comment and my reply are as follows,
    This is what he wrote

    Iceman! We finally have a name to go with the insanity!
    You are delusional, as so many contrarians demonstrate so frequently, if you think there was anything remotely resembling a scientific proof in what you submitted. Your entire submission consisted of “All of the scientists in the world are wrong because I said so.” You provided nothing that resembled proof to anyone that does not live in your mind. And, the worst part about it is that your claims did not even address the reality of man made global warming. Even if there exists some weird alternative universe where your claims were valid, there was absolutely NOTHING to show that man made global warming isn’t real. You just say that everything is based on invalid ice cores, therefore AGW isn’t real. How pathetically silly! AGW is based on mountains and mountains of scientific data. Ice cores provide us with information about the past, but very little about the present.
    Now, I have blacklisted you before because of your maniac rants. You are welcome to comment here, but if there are any more of your trolling diatribes I will blacklist you again and delete your comments.
    And, one piece of friendly advise. In all seriousness, you should seek some professional help for this delusional obsession of yours. I am very serious.

    I have replied

    Keating:
    You raised the ‘red herring’ of ice cores as part of your excuse for reneging on your pretend bet. You make a nonsensical claim that my demolition of your superstitious belief in man made global warming was because of ice core information because my submission did not mention ice cores.
    It is not possible to prove a negative. I demonstrated that according to the scientific method the existence of man made global warming is not supported by any evidence and, therefore, has to be assumed to not exist.
    You have not blacklisted me before because I have not posted to your web site except to provide my rejection of your nonsense. Indeed, I had not heard of you prior to your pretending to have made a bet that I answered.
    Your claim that you have blacklisted me before is as delusional as your superstitious belief in man made global warming.
    I don’t make “maniac rants” but I am answering your maniac rant.
    I have no desire to comment here because there is nobody to listen on this poorly frequented blog. If I did want to talk to myself then it would be easier to talk to a mirror. As for “trolling diatribes” you really have .lost your marbles!
    I would be interested to know what “delusional obsession” you think I have. Perhaps your hubris makes you think it is about you? If so then you are mistaken: I am not obsessional about annoying insects and I swat or ignore them. Clearly, your suggestion that I need “professional help” is your psychological projection.
    Richard

    Richard

  102. dbstealey says: August 16, 2014 at 10:26 am
    “It seems there may not be a ‘collapse of the wave function’ after all. Even Richard Feynman was convinced of that spookiness, but a close analogy has been found that apparently explains it…”
    Finally the penny drops! They just have to relearn that light is composed of real photons with mass and size, and behaves in the same way as the fluid in their experiments. The ‘pilot waves’ are the neutrinos, which drive the the linear photons just like the droplets.

  103. @Kenin 10:05-10:11 thank you always nice to learn something new.
    I am dubious of the rainmakers but some farmers swear by them.
    Is there any off topic on an open thread?
    I post as lower case john robertson as there are several John R’s also posting.
    so giant mirrors reflecting sunlight down onto the polar regions will be considered atmospheric tampering?
    I could see Canada, Russia and Mongolia collaborating on such schemes if the next ice age is starting.

  104. @Richard Courtney 10:39.
    thanks for posting that, Keating is special, we have a winner.
    His nasty ranting seem to encapsulate the full spectrum of the hysteria of the Alarmed Ones.
    If he is as righteous as he seems to believe himself to be, of course any who question his divine wisdom must be delusional. i love his illogic.
    The projection of these nobodies is astounding.
    I suspect ,as with most of those who can run our lives better than we can, that this person cannot show us anything constructive he has accomplished to date.

  105. beng says: August 16, 2014 at 9:39 am But from what I’ve read, gravity propagates at the speed of light (graviton or not), and thus the conundrum.
    Why would the gravitational field itself be restricted at all? Just because it propagates at the speed of light does not make it a form of energy – it is a field. You got me wondering about the electrostatic charge though. Could a lot of electrons get stripped away as mass crosses the event horizon and some get flung back out resulting in black holes having a massive positive charge and surrounded by a shell of orbiting electrons?

  106. dbstealey says:
    August 16, 2014 at 10:26 am
    “Rainer Bensch,
    It seems there may not be a ‘collapse of the wave function’ after all. ”
    Smokey, all these years , since 1950 or so, there was the Bohm-de Broglie interpretation of QM that postulates exactly that. It is a rival interpretation to the Copenhagen interpretation. See the keywords “pilot wave” or “guiding wave” to find more.
    de Broglie stated that in his mind, “particles” and “waves” exist at the same time – the “particles” being “spikes” in the “guiding wave” (a wave which corresponds to the Schroedinger equation, but cannot be measured directly, and is all-permeating).

  107. At about 3 a.m. a large earthquake swarm started by Bardabunga volcano in Vatnajokull ice cap. Over 200 earthquakes have been recorded. The largest earthquakes are of magnitue around 3 and above. Measurements indicate magma movements

  108. DirkH,
    What this article does is explain the analogy with a real world example. I liked that. The embedded video is really interesting, too.
    It appears that the ‘Copenhagen’ interpretation was based on insufficient evidence. There are other, very small forces at work that cause the inteference pattern. Seems photons are particles after all, which sometimes act like waves.
    More to come, I’m sure…

  109. dbstealey says:
    August 16, 2014 at 12:44 pm
    “DirkH,
    What this article does is explain the analogy with a real world example. I liked that. The embedded video is really interesting, too.”
    The back and forth in the comments section is high calibre.
    If de Broglie is the true interpretation many-worlds is toast ; what does this do to Quantum computers? I always doubted they could work.

  110. beng,
    I understand your question. But gravity is not a radiation. It is a field only in a sense that it creates an acceleration and, therefore, acts as a force. Gravity is not “getting out from the black hole with the speed of light.” It acts at any distance but decreases with the square of distance. Black hole contains enormous mass that curves the space-time fabric, creating a force sucking in the surrounding matter; the shape of this curvature is supposedly parabolic — therefore, the force it creates decreases with the square of distance. They say that it acts “with the speed of light” only because this is the fastest speed of any interaction possible in relativistic Universe.
    The thing is, we don’t really know if the speed of light in the vacuum is the same in any conditions: near the star, in the interstellar space, and in the intergalactic space. I think it is not the same. I am almost sure that photons have mass, however infinitesimal. Any energy is mass, and any mass reacts with any other mass.
    I think that we don’t know yet the actual shape of the gravitational curvature in the vicinity of a very large mass, that the dependency could be non-linear, and that the change of the pace of time can be more substantial than the currently accepted model of the Universe postulates. The speed of light in a vacuum could be different depending on the distance from a mass, and on amount of energy in that mass.
    In other words, Einstein’s gravitational constant is, most probably, a gravitational variable.

  111. since a few folks are reporting temps, Here in Woodstock, elevation on my mountain is 2000ft , I have observed 54F yesterday morning at 8:00am and today at 7:55 am it was 52F , I had to make a fire last night to warm the cabin. This summer has been spring all summer, I have a stone bridge over a spring fed stream that A) never got low enough to stand in to work on the damaged stone walls, B) when I did stand in the high for summer water, in five minutes my body started turning blue from the freezing cold water …. in JULY. Very cool summer here indeed. Very worried about coming winter as I can already feel it coming!

  112. Richard Courtney,
    Keating is a conman. He has set himself up as judge and jury regarding the decision of who will be paid, if anyone.
    Of course, no one will be paid. He is just a publicity hound who is using the ‘offer’ in order to generate hits on his blog, and notoriety.
    If Keating turned the money over to a neutral, respected authority, with fair ground rules for payment (or not), then he would have credibility. But as it stands, he is dangling a fictitious carrot in front of the public, dishonestly promising to pay if anyone can meet his conditions.
    He will never pay. The way Keating sees it: honesty is for chumps.
    ========================
    DirkH,
    Interesting. I had never considered quantum computers.

  113. dbstealey:
    At August 16, 2014 at 1:45 pm you say to me

    Keating is a conman. He has set himself up as judge and jury regarding the decision of who will be paid, if anyone.
    Of course, no one will be paid. He is just a publicity hound who is using the ‘offer’ in order to generate hits on his blog, and notoriety.

    Yes, I know. But you and me knowing is not sufficient.
    My sincere opinion is that the fakery of Keating’s pretend bet needs to be widely known otherwise warmunist toadies will cite the pretend bet as being an inability of climate realists to dispute man made global warming.
    Keating’s dispute with me on his blog demonstrates his fakery. And Keating cannot expunge the copies of that dispute from this WUWT thread.
    Richard

  114. Manfred says:
    August 15, 2014 at 10:27 pm …
    Within 24 hours of the shoot-down, Fidel Castro released a statement saying the Ukrainians did it.
    Fidel, thousands of miles away in a hospital bed says this, What that tells me is that the opposite is true: The Russians or their proxies did it.
    You may continue to apologize for the former Soviets.
    I may continue to hope they get their red asses kicked.

  115. Rainer Bensch (aka Rabe) says:
    August 16, 2014 at 1:35 am
    And others. Alternate viewpoint by Flandern:
    http://www.metaresearch.org/cosmology/speed_of_gravity.asp
    I know, not accepted by mainstream consensus (who by some simply jigger the equations to fit the warped field theory). But the logic is that even in a gravity “bowl” there still has to be a force to pull mass along the “curved space”. Another point that I remember seeing somewhere concerning the light speed limit is that simply put, nothing can be measured as being faster than the speed of light using light speed limited electromagnetic waves (like trying to measure objects going faster than the speed of sound in air using sound waves). However, if Flandern is correct, then FTL approaching 2 x 10 to 10th might be possible using gravity. Of course no effective electromagnetic/gravity interaction has been made public, but then such reactions if discovered would be highly classified wouldn’t they. Perhaps such a system exists for those pesky UFO’s, assuming of course that the examined evidence is acceptable to a reasoning audience.

  116. RobRoy says:
    August 16, 2014 at 2:29 pm
    “Within 24 hours of the shoot-down, Fidel Castro released a statement saying the Ukrainians did it.
    Fidel, thousands of miles away in a hospital bed says this, What that tells me is that the opposite is true: The Russians or their proxies did it.
    You may continue to apologize for the former Soviets.
    I may continue to hope they get their red asses kicked.”
    Full spectrum dominance! Nuclear first strike Yay! Hmm; I’m rooting for the BRICS. Hope the Dollar goes to hell. Because that’ll be healthier for everyone outside the CONUS; and probably for the people inside as well even if it means 3rd world status for them.

  117. george e. conant says:
    August 16, 2014 at 1:44 pm

    Woodstock, NY? beng (August 16, 2014 at 6:53 am) has it being cooler yet in Maryland.

  118. No, not a love child of Bubba, knew her well and she stole my heart in elementary school. Let’s see, another hint, might involve Hillary’s brothers, but I’ve never found any proof of that.

  119. @ john Robertson
    my pleasure. I thank you for your input/comments and taking the time, most people would have given up after the first comment.
    @markstoval
    Just checked out your blog and so far I like what I see. Just read Ferguson Police vs. Rothbard’s idea of peace keepers. Your views are spot on.
    “What to do? Murray Rothbard believed that ultimately the answer was no state and no state enforcers. The society would govern itself via mutual, voluntary cooperation. But what about protection you ask? I could point out that you are getting precious little “protection” now. You are just lucky that one of the brutal goons has not noticed you yet”
    Anyone who truly believes in such ideals, is thinking clearly. That’s a fact. I know one when I see one.

  120. I’m on vacation and my phone doesnt detect the reply option. Anyway,…. Ther is absolutely no way this contraption is going to put an accurate number on the energy influx from the magnetic reconnection phenomenon. http://mms.gsfc.nasa.gov/ it may give a more accurate estimate … But until the Sun is active as it has been before, there is no way to give an accurate estimate of the amount of energy that was given to our planet from the Sun from this instrument. The Sun may not return to such a state during its lifetime. And even if the sun returns to such an active state in 11 years… The dynamic nature of the sun makes any estimates of the past complete guesses. The sun continues on its orbit as well. The space it travels in is dynamic.
    nyhow, common sense tells you as the sun and its tsi become less, energy from reconnection becomes less. You need a larger than earth size probe to accurately estimate its forcing and it needs to be in place at the right time…. When the sun is most active.
    It is so ironic….. This US president gets elected using the sun as a prop….and then it sputters out. HAHAHAH

  121. jonesingforozone says:
    August 16, 2014 at 9:29 pm
    However, using your 21 year centered mean, Usoskin may still have considered the twentieth century a grand maximum of solar activity given that ~80 years of smoothed group numbers were 50 or more.
    I don’t think you are paying attention. Compare my curve with Usoskin’s [top panel of slide 6 of http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20solar%20activity.pdf ]. There is a difference between a local maximum and a Grand Maximum
    Your revised group numbers are based upon a downward revision in the late twentieth century sunspot group numbers as provided by Hoyt, D.V.; K.H. Schatten (1998) whose unrevised series Usoskin also uses for the portion of his reconstruction that follows the year 1610.
    Actually not. The revision is an upward revision of the values before ~1882, see http://www.leif.org/research/SSN/Svalgaard11.pdf
    The revision was necessary because Hout & Schatten used an incorrect calibration based on the [as we now know] invalid assumption about the Greenwich Group count having a stable calibration. It does not, see e.g. slide 14 of the above link. My old friend and colleague Ken Schatten agrees with me that the revision was needed, see e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/SSN/Schatten.pdf [slides 4 and 6].
    There is no doubt about the new revision. There is also no doubt that people with agendas will fight any revision that upsets their worldview. Are you one of those?

  122. jonesingforozone says:
    August 16, 2014 at 9:29 pm
    However, using your 21 year centered mean, Usoskin may still have considered the twentieth century a grand maximum of solar activity given that ~80 years of smoothed group numbers were 50 or more.
    I don’t think you are paying attention. Compare Usoskin’s [top panel of slide 6 of http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20solar%20activity.pdf ] based on 14C with Steinhilber’s based on 10Be [middle panel]. The bottom panel shows that 14C and 10Be generally agree, and you should be able to see that the Usoskin curve [top panel] agrees well with Steinhilber’s curve [middle panel] except for the past 400 years where Usoskin simply pastes in the ]faulty] group sunspot number, producing a false Grand Maximum, pretty much as Mann did when producing his infamous hockey stick by pasting on the [dubious?] ‘instrumental record’.
    Again, I realize that here are people who WILL NOT see this [for their own reasons] and that no amount of evidence can convince them otherwise, so at some point further discussion becomes rather fruitless.

  123. I could not believe my eyes when reading, as an aside in one of the above replies, that the sun cycles were NOT included in ANY of the models which have been hotly debated in the political arena over the last 10 years. When I did Physics at Uni Syd in early 60s most of the different components of the sun radiation variability had be elucidated and matched fossil records for as far back as had been studied at that time.

  124. Leif Svalgaard says:
    August 16, 2014 at 10:07 pm

    You are correct, Usoskin’s graph of grand maxima does resemble a hockey stick.
    What was he thinking?
    Thanks for your patience.

  125. IF, as the Alarmist say, everything contributes to the model’s warming then what makes things cool down?

  126. Tom says:
    August 16, 2014 at 12:14 am

    The leaves changing color in August is caused by the dry weather not the cool temps.

    Tom, could you cite some sort of authority on temps in Pittsburgh versus moisture or precipitation? Has it been unusually dry in Pittsburgh? I was under the impression it has been unusually wet in the East. What is the primary driver of leaf turning? Light? Temp? Moisture? Some combination?
    I guess I found the answer here: http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html

  127. mikeishere says:
    August 16, 2014 at 4:08 am
    I didn’t even notice the 132 F on the left hand scale until you pointed it out.
    I would say there is something wrong with their plotting routines.
    Good show.

  128. dbstealey at all,
    the singularity associated with light speed (α = 0) is avoided by physicists at all costs because, I think, when used as denominator somewhere it leads to nature behaving weird and such “spooky actions at a distance” (Einstein) appear. Next they find out that nature is indeed behaving “absurd from the point of view of common sense” (Feynman, QED), but I disagree. I couldn’t find something weird when considering the implications caused by the singularity. I also would not call something “spooky” that happens all the time. This lead to the idea of an experiment to show that the collapse of the ‘wave function’ really happens as “the thinking goes” (Greene, The Fabric of the Cosmos). The idea that there would be also a useful application when found to be true came up mere by accident. Well, engineers…
    In other words, I think I can explain the full procedure of an energy transfer by photon from an emitter electron to the receptor inclusive that weird looking behavior in between, and why there is only some probability of being able to catch the photon. My proposition is that the photon is neither wave nor particle. And interference isn’t possible. It only looks like that after the transfer. OK, would become too long…
    Thanks for all the links.

  129. After reading the very distressing story found in the WSJ on the front page, my wife asked a very simple question: “Why aren’t we sending rubber gloves to the nations in Africa fighting Ebola?”
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/ebola-doctors-with-no-rubber-gloves-1408142137?KEYWORDS=ebola
    Activists want billions (or is it trillions?) spent on programs to halt global warming (which is not happening at present) to save lives in the future. Staring us in the face right this minute is a medical fight against Ebola mankind is apparently losing. While losing, not only are we seeing lives being lost at the present, these lives could be saved with the very small expenditure of some rubber gloves.
    What is really frightening about the Ebola epidemic is the loss of the front line doctors fighting the disease. It’s like losing your firefighters during a fire.
    If empathy for others is not enough to motivate governments to send simple medical supplies, perhaps a sense of enlightened self interest might move them to do something? After all, if the epidemic is not stopped, it will spread. What happens if it reaches Lagos, or another large city in Africa? What will the chances be of keeping it from spreading to New York city?
    If the saving of lives motivates CAGW proponents, why don’t they some time out to send medical supplies to West Africa?
    Just wondering…

  130. jarthuroriginal says: August 17, 2014 at 2:28 am “I would say there is something wrong with their plotting routines.”
    Yeah and obvious stuff like that then has me wondering how many indiscernible mistakes might be lurking underneath the obvious ones. Amazon wouldn’t last very long if it miscalculated prices but federal government … they know that they won’t “go out of business” so why should they care?

  131. Canada – Natural Resources: The opposition to Macmillan Bloedel’s logging vanished into thin air the day that company was acquired by the American company, Weyerhauser. US interests don’t want us to export to other markets, aka, to get world prices for our resources. Just more of the Tides et al political money laundering.

  132. I hope this qualifies as open thread post. I notice some posts have italic and bold text. How do you do that?

  133. richardscourtney says:
    August 16, 2014 at 10:39 am
    He seems to have subsequently apologised to you, saying that he mistook you for some ”iceman” guy.
    Christopher Keating Mod > Richard S Courtney • 2 days ago
    ”My mistake. I thought you were the individual going by the name “Iceman”. All of my comments were directed towards him. And, they still stand in regards to him.
    I apologize. I will have to go back and figure out which comments were yours. What was your submission?
    The claim that you cannot prove a negative is a totally false argument and one used by contrarians to duck out. First, if it isn’t possible to prove a negative, why do contrarians go around claiming they can? Remember, the challenge was to people to step forward and do what they have been claiming they can do.
    Second, you most certainly can prove a negative and all experiments do this. My standard response is to do the experiment where I tell you the door on the other side of the room is locked. Go over the open it. You have now proven the negative.
    BTW, I did not renege on the promise. The fact of the matter is that there was not a single submission that came anywhere close to being scientifically valid. The best ones were bad. The rest were REALLY bad. I can show easily show all of the submissions were not valid, and I did. What I can’t do is to change the mentality of people that reject science.
    The evidence is overwhelming – the only way someone can reject global warming is to reject science.
    One final point – this comment was a maniacal rant, so don’t say you don’t make them.”

    I read some of the other responses he attempts to justify as legitimate defences. I couldn’t decide if I should laugh or puke. I did neither.
    He had a lot of unkind words to say about WUWT. Though, he was happy enough to use a graph with skepsci’s moniker under it. (The one for sea levels.)
    Problem with dealing with a slippery eel like this is you are doing everything on his terms. He has his moral support there to make him look good. Ultimately, he has the last word. It needs an independent referee.
    Regards, Eamon.

  134. Eamon Butler,
    Keating is wrong.
    An example of proving a negative would be when someone says, for example, “Prove that humans aren’t causing global warming.” That’s like saying, “Prove that aliens aren’t walking among us.”
    Proving that something is not happening is an example of trying to prove a negative. Rather, science tries to show what is happening, and to provide a credible explanation.
    Keating says:
    Remember, the challenge was to people to step forward and do what they have been claiming they can do.
    The alarmist crowd claims that they can show that human emissions cause global warming. But when skeptics ask them for verifiable, testable, measurable evidence quantifying the fraction of a degree warming that is directly attributable to human CO2 emissions, there never seems to be any such evidence. Thus, their claim is nothing more than a conjecture; an opinion.
    No one is denying global warming. That has been going on since the LIA. But are humans causing it? There is still no scientific evidence supporting that conjecture.
    Keating is a scoundrel. He never had any intention of paying anything. If he was honest, he would have placed the money into an escrow account, and arranged for it to be administered by a widely respected neutral third party such as a university, like M.I.T. The fact that he is acting as his own judge and jury shows that this was just a publicity stunt.

  135. dbstealey says:
    August 18, 2014 at 1:46 pm
    I couldn’t agree more.
    My suspicion is he would be vulnerable in a person to person debate. What he is doing here is like shooting fish in a barrel. Doubt he is so sharp outside his comfort zone.(Not that he’s so sharp in it either) But the odds are well stacked in his favour this way.
    Eamon.

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