Traveling today, as I have been all week, but this seemed like a good time for an open thread. Discuss anything within bounds of WUWT commenting policy.
Traveling today, as I have been all week, but this seemed like a good time for an open thread. Discuss anything within bounds of WUWT commenting policy.
A. Smith says:
August 15, 2014 at 5:57 pm
Still waiting for someone here to bring up the massive project on magnetic reconnection that is going on now. Maybe it was and I missed it? The way I see it, magnetic reconnection is not likely to occur anytime in the near future due to the lack of sufficient solar forcing ( been this way for about 8 years).
Magnetic reconnection goes on every day, all the time. The easiest way to see this is to watch the magnetic field in the Earth’s polar caps. There you can see the continuous signature of reconnection every day. We have known this since 1968 http://www.leif.org/research/DMI-R6.pdf or http://www.leif.org/research/JA078i013p02064.pdf
luysii says:
August 15, 2014 at 4:57 pm
It’s seemed cool to me, but the NWS data says we’ve been pretty close to average in Concord NH. From climate summaries, e.g.
We’ve had little hot weather (fine by me) and haven’t really needed the common breaking of the heat in mid-August with the first cool blast from the north.
pat
All things considered, don’t you think a storm about to hit the UK shouldn’t have a Muslim name?
Les Johnson says:
August 15, 2014 at 4:25 pm
Mark Perry reposts Matt Ridley’s excellent essay on why we should be cheerful.
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That’s all well and good, but don’t put the pressure on.
Last night Keating finished off the last of his challenges. Noone got the 30K.
Published prior to the recent era of political partisanship, H.W. Ellsaesser’s 1988 paper describes the effect on surface temperature of raising the mean elevation of the CO2 “greenhouse blanket” through the narrow “15-micron” infared window as being far from certain. A different view on the climatic effect of CO2 summarizes by noting that the ice ages may have left too little CO2 to adequately support life.
.
Indeed, The role of terrestrial plants in limiting atmospheric CO2 decline over the past 24 million years, Nature 460, 85-88 (2 July 2009) doi:10.1038/nature08133 Letter, documents peer reviewed research that concludes grasslands are the result of the CO2 suffocation of trees. Plate tectonics were responsible for CO2-depleting mineral formation, especially, the uplift of the Himalayas. CO2 levels dropped to 200-250 ppm from 1000-1500 ppm as forests starved for CO2, gave way to prairies.
Of course, many reasons could be behind changes in outgoing long wave radiation. For example, decreased ultraviolet radiation from the sun could decrease total sunlight striking the earth. Deep Solar Minimum describes the solar minimum of 2009 as the deepest in a century. A History of Solar Activity over Millennia(2008), by Ilya G. Usoskin, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit), University of Oulu, Finland, concludes, in part, “The modern level of solar activity (after the 1940s) is very high, corresponding to a grand maximum.”
Nah.
(But is IS illegal if you have conservative interests.
Or have ever worked with an oil company.
Or are trying to support a “Republican” …
But, if your billions support democrats? Nothing is illegal, immoral, unethical, or fattening.
Anyone canoeing the northwest passage?
jonesingforozone says:
August 15, 2014 at 8:34 pm
A History of Solar Activity over Millennia(2008), by Ilya G. Usoskin, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit), University of Oulu, Finland, concludes, in part, “The modern level of solar activity (after the 1940s) is very high, corresponding to a grand maximum.”
That is very likely not correct. The modern level is not significantly higher compared to the past 250 years http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Activity-Temperature-Anomalies.png No Grand Modern Maximum
A very compelling graph that supports the grand maximum conclusion is Fig. 17.
Could you provide the document index of the paper or abstract corresponding to the graph you posted?
Thanks.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 15, 2014 at 8:47 pm
“That is very likely not correct.”….
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Leif pulls a punch !!
trafamadore says:
Last night Keating finished off the last of his challenges. Noone got the 30K.
Was that Peter Noone? The singer from Herman’s Hermits? Is he still around?
A very unusual and very welcome rain event is developing now over western NSW and SE Queensland. Quoting forecaster Chris Webb
These are normally very dry areas indeed, rain is being drawn in from the Coral sea and the Bight and the system is slowly moving towards the east when more heavy rain can be expected if it moves off the coast where SST’s are still elevated http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sst_weekly.gif
Unprecedented inland rain for August in Australia, but, to repeat to repeat my enthusiasm, very, very welcome.
This water vapour loop is the stuff of dreams http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=12&allday=&start=&stop=#nav
Since it’s an open thread….
Delingpole’s latest
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/08/15/Mann-v-Steyn-if-this-trial-ever-goes-ahead-global-warming-is-toast
“This is what I’ve always found so thoroughly enjoyable about the global warming debate. It’s not one of those issues where there’s right and wrong on both sides and it’s really a matter of opinion which one you favour. Quite simply it’s a very straightforward battle between, on the one hand a bunch of lying, greedy shysters, fanatical, misanthropic, anti-capitalist eco-loons, bent, grant-troughing scientists, grubby politicians and despicable, rent-seeking millionaires and billionaires; and on the other a handful of brave, honest, rigorous, seekers-after-truth.”
Kenin @ur momisugly 5.28 pm
This will lead to the end of rain dancing.
Bit of an oopsie:
StatsCan employee detected error after job numbers released
Statistics Canada faces questions about its reputation after it dramatically revised its jobs number. Error blamed on computer programming mistake.
http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2014/08/15/statscan_employee_detected_error_after_job_numbers_released.html#
Way back in the 1980s I was hauled into the Vice-Principal’s office when I wrote an article entitled “High Speed Idiots Delay Report Cards” for our school paper about our school’s computer screwing up our marks.
I’m sure that the Super Accurate Climate Models work on some other method, though. Cough. Cough.
jonesingforozone says:
August 15, 2014 at 9:20 pm
A very compelling graph that supports the grand maximum conclusion is Fig. 17.
But is wrong, nevertheless. E.g. compare it with the result from 10Be [produced by cosmic rays] as shown in slide 6 of http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20solar%20activity.pdf
Could you provide the document index of the paper or abstract corresponding to the graph you posted?
The sunspot number graph comes from this paper [peer-reviewed to appear in space Science Reviews shortly] http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1407/1407.3231.pdf Figure 28
pat says: August 15, 2014 at 7:00 pm
… 14 Aug: UK Telegraph: UK weather: Wrap up, big chill on the way in Bertha’s wake. …
I’m currently at the World Science Fiction Convention in London, and I can confirm that it’s been cold and wet so far. I’ll report later on a couple global warming panels they’re having this week.
read it all:
16 Aug: The Australian: Graham Lloyd: Solar cycles linked to climate pause, assist in coastal planning
LONG-TERM natural cycles linked to the sun could explain the pause in global average surface temperatures and offer a better guide for coastal planners to predict sea level rises, storm surges and natural disasters.
Publication of the findings in Ocean and Coastal Management follows a decade-long struggle for the lead author, Australian scientist Robert Baker from the University of New England, whose work has challenged the orthodox climate science view that carbon dioxide is the dominant factor in climate change.
Dr Baker, a former chair of the International Geographical Commission on Modelling Geographic Systems, said what had been a purely scientific debate on climate change until 2005 had become political. His latest paper with his PhD student faced a series of objections from scientists close to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change but was published after an 11-member peer review panel voted 8-3 to publish. An editorial that accompanied the paper said it was an “excellent example of how to approach these complex issues that are now vulnerable to often irrational and heated debate instead of the required proper scientific discussion”…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/solar-cycles-linked-to-climate-pause-assist-in-coastal-planning/story-e6frg6xf-1227026053386
Here’s something I’d like people to think about when we consider the effects of the sun on climate. The nature of the sun is poorly understood. I’ve been doing some reading with this in mind and came across this interesting article on the theory that combines an electric/plasma sun with the fusion model. See for yourselves:
http://milesmathis.com/sunhole.html
The chief complaint of these papers is that the sunspot number needs recalibration.
Perhaps the sunspot number “reconstructed from 14C by Usoskin et al. (2007) using geomagnetic data by Yang et al. (2000)” provides such?
Mike McMillan says:
August 15, 2014 at 9:39 pm
Was the IPCC AR5 the best selling work of science fiction last year?
I would like to know, what people with good background in physics and engineering think about the prospects of EMdrive (Robert Shawyer’s theory and its practical implications). Slashdot is too much of an ego competition forum to be informative, while Guido Fetta’s explanations are probably wrong since his drive works worse than the one built exactly according to Shaywer, and since Fetta’s idea about slots in the resonator has been proven irrelevant.
Alan Poirier says:
August 15, 2014 at 9:57 pm
Here’s something I’d like people to think about when we consider the effects of the sun on climate. The nature of the sun is poorly understood. I’ve been doing some reading with this in mind and came across this interesting article on the theory that combines an electric/plasma sun with the fusion model. See for yourselves:
It is entertaining, but is completely wrong. Too many things are nonsense to explain here [and is that really necessary? people here can think for themselves, no?]
jonesingforozone says:
August 15, 2014 at 9:59 pm
The chief complaint of these papers is that the sunspot number needs recalibration.
Perhaps the sunspot number “reconstructed from 14C by Usoskin et al. (2007) using geomagnetic data by Yang et al. (2000)” provides such?
The paper I referred you to provides the re-calibration. Read it.
Your paper certainly has far fewer footnotes than does Usoskin’s.
Note that Usoskin’s method does not rely upon the amplitude and the period of individual solar cycles to measure solar minima and maxima.
jonesingforozone says:
August 15, 2014 at 9:59 pm
The chief complaint of these papers is that the sunspot number needs recalibration.
A much shorter version is here: http://www.leif.org/research/CEAB-Cliver-et-al-2013.pdf
The recalibration is already in hand. Publication of the final series is scheduled for Spring next year.