WUWT Arctic September Average Sea Ice Prediction submitted to ARCUS

Here are the numbers from the poll started yesterday. 657 votes were cast on the question “What will the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent be? “and the breakdown is shown below.

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The top 5 vote getters, garnering 55% of the vote, were averaged using a weighted average calculator. The results are below.

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The value submitted to ARCUS is 5.6 million square kilometers for the September average sea ice extent.

The submitted document is below:

sio_panarctic_template_august (PDF)

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markpro3ger
August 12, 2014 12:03 pm

I am still confused as to which metric this refers. Is this the 15% JAXA or the 30% DMI? Or some other one?

Jimmy
August 12, 2014 12:43 pm

Markpro3ger,
In the July report (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2014/july), they use the NSIDC interactive graph for extent (15%) as one of their figures. I’m guessing the numbers reported there are what they use for “observed” values.

cnxtim
August 12, 2014 12:45 pm

who cares which netric, this is about a return to sanity and folk stepping off the CAGW “gravy train” which is slowing to a crawl..

August 12, 2014 12:52 pm

this gives a good example of how an “average” is found and what it really says…..the average here was NOT in the top 5 responses……when you take an average you will find almost NOBODY fits that “average” almost every person differs from the average in many ways…………this is also a problem with stereotypes and how people use them, to become a stereotype there has to be a big element of truth in it BUT just like an average it CANT be applied to any individual in the group stereotype.

Brian H
August 12, 2014 12:55 pm

The mode — peak response — would be of interest, too.

NZ Willy
August 12, 2014 12:57 pm

I did not vote because I think the actual outcome is too dependent on manipulation. As I’ve posted before, the satellite operators can trade off ice area between the Arctic and the Antarctic depending how they orient the polarizer, or its software equivalent. I don’t want to predict what they are going to do.

NZ Willy
August 12, 2014 1:16 pm

In comment to the averaging method used by WUWT, it is curious that the “5.6M” bin was not counted because it wasn’t in the top 5, even though it is in the range of the responses which *were* counted. Perhaps the “top 5” could set the bounds of the counting range, that is, in this case 5.3M was the low end and 5.8M was the high end, so all responses in this range could be counted. Oh well, not important.

kenin
August 12, 2014 1:29 pm

Half-way through the charts I just lost focus and started wondering why Rob Lowe hasn’t aged.
sorry no mock intended.

Bill 2
August 12, 2014 1:42 pm

Why wouldn’t one average all the responses? Or take the median?

markpro3ger
August 12, 2014 3:36 pm

since with JAXA we are already at 6.1 million square miles…why was anyone predicting 5.8 million? that’s like 4 respectable melt days and we have a good 4 weeks left of melting….Am I missing something?
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Jared
August 12, 2014 4:20 pm

Markpro3ger, it is the average of the entire month of September not just the low point. But I too agree 5.8 seems like wishful thinking. I was one of those that picked 5.3 and I think the low point will be just under 5.

fred4d
August 12, 2014 4:32 pm

“Brian H says:
August 12, 2014 at 12:55 pm
The mode — peak response — would be of interest, too.”
The mean of all the entries was 5.6, the median was also 5.6 and the mode was 5.8

jjs
August 12, 2014 4:37 pm

markpro3ger your missing something – I heard that al gore was going to visit the artic in September so that is why I picked 6.0….we’ll see

j.pickens
August 12, 2014 4:53 pm

Interesting, I picked 5.6, was sorry to see it way off the top on the numerical votes tally, but then, it was calculated as the average of the top choices. WIN!

Editor
August 12, 2014 5:00 pm

5.6 wasn’t in the ‘top five’ because AW gave it the kiss of death: “My best guess is about 5.6 million sq km“.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/august-arctic-sea-ice-outlook-contest/

gregole
August 12, 2014 7:13 pm

Arctic Ice Death Spiral 2014 nowhere to be seen. WUWT bullish on Arctic Ice!

markpro3ger
August 13, 2014 1:46 am

I found this graph earlier this year and REALLY like it, but I am not clear on what it is measuring. Does anyone know?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

tonyM
August 13, 2014 3:41 am

Makes as much sense as the consensus on CAGW.

Clovis Marcus
August 13, 2014 4:22 am

Shame about the gaming laws, this would make a terrific monthly sweepstake 😉

dipchip
August 13, 2014 5:30 am

markpro3ger says: August 13, 2014 at 1:46 am
Yes it is Sea ice AREA from what i can tell from this Link
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Here is the same chart for the S H Link
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Jimmy
August 13, 2014 11:23 am

markpro3ger says:
August 12, 2014 at 3:36 pm
“since with JAXA we are already at 6.1 million square miles…why was anyone predicting 5.8 million? that’s like 4 respectable melt days and we have a good 4 weeks left of melting….Am I missing something?”
If I’m correct about whose numbers should be used, yes you are missing something. JAXA and NSIDC numbers are not directly comparable, even though both claim to measure 15% extent, because of how the data is processed. For example, as of my typing this, JAXA is reporting 6.05 million km2, while NSIDC is reporting 6.47 million km2.
Also, as was already pointed out, the prediction being asked for is not for daily minimum, but for the September average.
Even keeping both of those facts in mind, I’d still say that 5.8 is overly optimistic.

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