From Dr. Roy Spencer:
The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for July, 2014 is +0.31 deg. C, unchanged from June (click for full size version):
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 19 months are:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386
2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195
2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243
2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165
2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112
2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220
2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074
2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009
2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190
2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031
2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020
2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057
2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029
2014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103
2014 3 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.001
2014 4 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.092
2014 5 +0.327 +0.325 +0.328 +0.175
2014 6 +0.305 +0.315 +0.295 +0.509
2014 7 +0.306 +0.293 +0.319 +0.453
The global image for July should be available in the next day or so here.
Popular monthly data files (these might take a few days to update):
uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)
uahncdc_mt_5.6.txt (Mid-Troposphere)
uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt (Lower Stratosphere)
=======================================================
UAH press release:
Global Temperature Report: July 2014
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade
July temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.31 C (about 0.56 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for July.
![graph072014[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/graph0720141.png?resize=640%2C234&quality=75)
Northern Hemisphere: +0.29 C (about 0.52 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for July.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.32 C (about 0.58 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for July.
Tropics: +0.45 C (about 0.81 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for July.
![July2014map[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/july2014map1.png?quality=75)
June temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.31 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.32 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.30 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.51 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released August 5, 2014:
In the tropics, July 2014 was the second warmest July in the 36-year satellite record, only 0.03 C cooler than July 2009 and 0.06 C warmer than July 1998, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. The average temperature in the tropics during July was 0.45 C (about 0.81° F) warmer than seasonal norms for the month.
The global average temperature for July was 0.31 C (about 0.56 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms, the fifth warmest July in the satellite record.
Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place in Earth’s atmosphere in July was over western Russia near the town of Verkhoturye (one of the oldest Russian towns east of the Urals), where Antarctic winter temperatures were as much as 3.77 C (about 6.79 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest departure from average in July was in northern Norway near the town of Borkenes. Temperatures there were as much as 2.93 C (about 5.27 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms.
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
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This is getting hard to believe. Where in the world was it so warm during July?
The map has July in the East coast of Australia as being somewhat above normal. I can tell you from personal experience that the region shown has been ball-tearingly cold compared with recent years, with near record snowfalls and many record or near-record low temps.
Something is screwy.
phlogiston says:
“We’re due for a fall in termperatures. There may be a La Nina in the next few months. Already there is an Atlantic “La Nina”. When the Pacific one follows then global temperatures could head south.”
I agree, a strong/long La Nina, similar to the 1954-56 one is due. It’s been 60 years too, since that one.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/teleconnections/eln-f-pg.gif
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/imei.png
ES says:
August 6, 2014 at 12:51 am…….
Next time put it in quotes or put the “From” at the top of the quote otherwise we might think it’s from you.
With the sustained pause I imagine we are continuing to evaporate a steady flow of heat out of the oceans. I would imagine that the gas light will click on here soon. Eventually we will need to have a recharging event to keep from sliding fairly deep into below global average temps. That means evaporation needs to slow up and the clouds blown away so that ol’Sol can do its job. Trust me, we WANT heat to be hiding in the oceans!
Odd that the monthly figures for 2013 and 2014 included in Dr. Spencer’s post do not consistently match the monthly figures in the “uahncdc lt 5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)” dataset that he provides a link to. For example, the post shows the February 2014 anomaly at 0.170 but the dataset shows it at 0.18. There are other examples as well.
“Michael says:
August 6, 2014 at 8:02 am
Odd that the monthly figures for 2013 and 2014 included in Dr. Spencer’s post do not consistently match the monthly figures in the “uahncdc lt 5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)” dataset that he provides a link to. For example, the post shows the February 2014 anomaly at 0.170 but the dataset shows it at 0.18. There are other examples as well.”
and from version to version the past is changed as well.
Edim says:
August 6, 2014 at 6:11 am
I agree, a strong/long La Nina, similar to the 1954-56 one is due. It’s been 60 years too, since that one.
“Due?” Ha! Do you think we pay the slightest attention to your “schedules”, puny humans?
…Yours truly,
La Nina and El Nino
The big jump in the tropics is not surprising with the recent ENSO+ conditions. However, I’m not sure why the SH jumped so much especially given all the added sea ice reflecting solar energy. Or, was it the formation of the ice that released much of the energy?
Steven Mosher says:
August 6, 2014 at 8:07 am
“Michael says:
August 6, 2014 at 8:02 am
Odd that the monthly figures for 2013 and 2014 included in Dr. Spencer’s post do not consistently match the monthly figures in the “uahncdc lt 5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)” dataset that he provides a link to. For example, the post shows the February 2014 anomaly at 0.170 but the dataset shows it at 0.18. There are other examples as well.”
and from version to version the past is changed as well.
But not always in the same direction.
Richard M says:
August 6, 2014 at 8:12 am
“given all the added sea ice reflecting solar energy. ”
Especially all the sea ice that is at a south of 67 degrees around the late June Solstice.
“A C Osborn says:
August 6, 2014 at 3:22 am
I know that UAH does not actually record the temperatures at ground level and it shows, because the northern hemisphere in July was much colder than normal and yet UAH shows it at +0.293.
Similarly quite a bit of the southern hemisphere has also been cold and UAH shows it at +0.319.
Are they actually measuring the heat escaping from the surface which is causing the cold conditions?”
The sensors involved measure brightness not temperature.
Then, you have to use radiative physics ( for microwave) to estimate what the temperature would have had to be in the troposphere to create the signal received in space.
It’s not a direct measurement of temperature, but rather the output of a physics model ( radiative transfer ) combined with a brightness data at the sensor.
Hmm think of this way.
you are looking down into a pool of water. You see a light at the bottom of the pool. That light impinges on your sensor. Now you ask the question: how hot is the lamp at the bottom of the pool. So, you work backwards from the light received at the sensor, you calculate losses for the transmission through water, you get a estimate of the brightness at the source and then you figure out what the temperature of the lamp is.
Similarly, you receive a signal in space. You use radiative physics ( how does radiation propagate through the atmosphere) to figure out what the state of the source is.
In microwave you dont have to account for a C02 effect, but radiative physics is a tested, working reliable physical theory. If it didnt work you could not build radars, ir missiles, cell phones, wi fi,
satellite sensors..
radiative physics tells us that doubling c02, all other things being equal, will warm the world by more than 1C.
M Courtney says:
“‘dbstealey says at August 6, 2014 at 1:39 am…
I do not think that ES was endorsing the “climate expert”.
I think he was offering up something for fun and ridicule. Just to have a laugh.”
Glenn McGillivray holds a B.A. in political science from Wilfrid Laurier University, a M.A. in political science from McMaster University, and a graduate diploma in corporate communication from Seneca College. ES was pulling our legs and some of us believed him !!
M Courtney & Solomon Green. And ES:
If ES was ridiculing ‘climate experts’, then my sincere apologies. I try to be cynical, but sometimes it’s hard to keep up. ☹
It’s hard to think straight after reading the link that ES posted. ☺
Bit chilly;
http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/gulf-stream_3.html
I would post in the Death Valley thread, but too many comments there now.
The National Weather Service reports Reno, NV, only reached a high temperature of 66 degrees on Tuesday 5 August. The previous record for lowest high temperature was 73 set in 1891,
FWIW.
Steven Mosher says: August 6, 2014 at 8:22 am
I am well aware of how the Satellites work thanks, I was using the term “Records Temperatures” figuratively. That I why I take issue with it, because it is a “Modelled” temperature set like BEST final output.
Not actual measured values.
Steven Mosher says: August 6, 2014 at 8:22 am
ie it does not relate to what Human beings experience where they are on the surface.
Mosher, I’m not an expert, but my understanding of radiation physics is that there is not a linear relationship between qty CO2 and temperature response (as suggested by your post). That is, past a certain point, adding additional CO2 does not provide a measurable increase in temperature. I believe the IPCC conjectures that there is a linear relationship, despite well known physics/engineering standards to the contrary. Assuming my understanding is correct, can you please clarify why CO2 would have a linear response in the atmosphere, but not in any other application. (If my understanding is not correct, I’d appreciate clarification.)
Thanks in advance,
rip
So a few days ago, we had the definitive headline that there has been no warming for 17 years and 10 months. But – as previously discussed – based on the RSS satellite sensing alone:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/02/global-temperature-update-still-no-global-warming-for-17-years-10-months/
UAH does not show such a long pause. Its also satellite based sensing. So it looks to me like RSS is favoured by sceptics as it produces the trend they want to see.
Perhaps Lord M could do his RSS analysis on the UAH data ?
phlogiston says:
August 5, 2014 at 11:54 pm
We’re due for a fall in termperatures. There may be a La Nina in the next few months.
=========================================================================
I see that as happening next year. The ENSO should fall a bit further in the next 6/7 weeks, and then there will be a slight uptick to positive territory into October. After that it will be back to negative ENSO until the end of December/early January.
ES:
“Climate Change Deniers risk being relegated to the ash heap of history…”
Just posted this over at the linked site:
How can you say with apparent conviction that the climate has been “stable” for 10,000 years (until now, presumably) when there is not a shred of scientific evidence to back that up, and in fact the vast majority of studies (peer reviewed), show just the opposite, including the Holocene Climate Optimum (much warmer than today), followed by cool period, followed by Roman Warming period, followed by Dark Ages cool period, followed by Medieval Warming Period, followed by Little Ice Age, from which we are now essentially recovered. All three previous warming periods were equal to or greater than the current period (look it up), and the Little Ice Age was the source of significant crop failure, starvation, etc., while the Roman Warming Period and the Medieval Warming period were characterized by growth of civilization and population, abundant crops, retreat of glaciers, etc. Look up the studies, and inform yourself. The notion that the climate is stable is just patently false, and if that’s what you base your current alarmism on, then you should educate yourself to the scientific literature.
Additionally, as is typical, you create a “straw case” for so-called “deniers”. Most of us believe that CO2 has some warming effect, and clearly mankind is producing more (but is a very small source compared to others, such as Ocean out-gassing, animal respiration, etc.). And everybody acknowledges that the climate is changing (see above). What we don’t believe is that CO2 doubling raises temperatures anywhere near the rate claimed by some scientists, and think climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling is less than 2C, and maybe less than 1C. We also don’t buy the conjecture by some scientists that increase of CO2-driven temperatures will trigger water vapor runaway warming, which is the only scenario that can make AGW into CAGW.
Finally, most of us are more concerned in the longer-term future about the return (inevitably) of another Ice Age, even a “little” one, which would be far more catastrophic to our civilization than a few degrees of warming.
“October could be a month of snow and cold weather across the northern Plains and in parts of the northeast Rockies,” Pastelok said.
James Abbott says:
August 6, 2014 at 11:16 am
Perhaps Lord M could do his RSS analysis on the UAH data ?
=============================================================
Do you have the skill to do an analysis of any of the temp data sets? Or is your skill set in complaining and nitpicking on Lord M,s handiwork.
“The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. “There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September.”