From PhysicsWorld blog: The cover feature of the August issue of Physics World, which is now out in print and digital formats, looks at the Sun – and in particular, at the consequences here on Earth of a “solar super-storm”. As I point out in the video [below], these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines, knocking out satellites and disrupting telecommunications.
One particularly strong solar super-storm occured back in 1859 in what is known as the “Carrington event”, so named after the English astronomer who spotted a solar flare that accompanied it. The world in the mid-19th century was technologically a relatively unsophisticated place and the consequences were pretty benign. But should a storm of similiar strength occur today, the impact could be devastating to our way of life.
The feature has been written by Ashley Dale from the University of Bristol, who last year took part in a gathering of space experts to examine and report on the potential consequences of a solar super-storm here on Earth. I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.
Reports:
SolarMAX_Executive summary Adobe Acrobat PDF
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SolarMAX_Final report.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF
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[snip – policy violation -mod]
Thank you Rick (7.28) for bringing sense to the “overdue by five years” rubbish.
The average repeat time for a random event is completely meaningless for any practical purposes. Furthermore, the calculated average is probably based on no more than three or four recorded “Carrington” events anyway as there appears to be little or no explanation yet of the cause of such events than can be used to calculate the frequency as a function of the rotation of the sun.
This is as bad as saying that because we had two “hundred year storms” in a 25 year period then they must be getting more frequent because of global warming.
Carrington events happen, same as meteor strikes. All we can do is to increase our level of warning so that defensive measures can be taken. Completely de-centralising our energy economy is as bad as de-carbonising because of a possible global warming – the (definite) costs massively outweigh the (speculative) benefits.
WASHINGTON POST PROPOSES EARTH SHIELDING!!!
“Extreme solar storms spark a need for innovation”.
As NASA just announced, a massive solar storm similar to the one in 2012 could wipe out GPS, satellite communication, the power grid, the Internet – just about anything that would be affected by a sufficiently large direct electromagnetic blast from the sun [including nuclear plants]. One thing that could be done now is to launch a competition to attract the best ideas from the scientific community, similar to what NASA does with its Innovative Advanced Concepts program. It’s been noticed that, in the event of extreme solar activity, the Earth’s magnetosphere adjusts in response to the CMEs from the sun. Maybe that system could be exploited or augmented by man-made means to create a shield that powers up or powers down anytime NASA’s early-warning system detects unusual activity.http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/07/31/extreme-solar-storms-spark-a-need-for-innovation/
*http://www.global-providence.info/
It’s feasible, because both the easy crater shields and the big equatorial one can start immediately, while the big shield will use gravity balance AND celestial electricity to need less energy!
Ruger and Smith & Wesson gun stocks are entering way oversold territory. But they may go down some more. All it takes is Hillary Clinton to get elected and start her UN global gun control bullshyt and they’ll take off again.
Probably wouldn’t hurt to have a place in a remote spot like I’ve got. Keep your generator going, know your neighborhood and friendly locals. Be able to defend yourselves from crime wave freaks pouring out from the big cities.
Actually, with a couple of deep cycle batteries and an inverter you don’t have to run a generator as much.
Does anyone remember why the first Microwave Ovens were called Radar Ranges?
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 1, 2014 at 2:34 pm
Correct me if I am wrong but wasn’t the Carrington event preceded by a very large x-class flare and with that wouldn’t a CME be seen coming off the surface. Also we have no idea how many Carrington events have happened since the last one when most of the time CME and Flares are not pointed at the Earth and our observations by Satellite only go back 30 years or so.
There is no cause to become alarmists but to me this type of sudden event-whether man made or natural-is of a far greater concern than AGW.
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often ignored in the hype when looking at global events. a sudden change is difficult to deal with because many areas will be affected all at the same time. a gradual change is much easier to deal with, as the problem areas will be limited in scope and spread out over a longer period of time.
thus the alarmist hype that we “need to act now”. if we wait it will become obvious that there is no need to panic, that gradual problems can be dealt with gradually. for example, sea level rise – only a few areas are at immediate risk – so deal with those rather than disrupt the economy of the entire planet.
Rob says:
August 2, 2014 at 7:56 am
I have no solid idea how that 1 in 150 was derived, but the Carrington event was pretty well described from direct solar observation, at least the second CME of the event was. I assume the risk is derived from seeing events happen on our side of the sun, determining how much of our orbit is affected by them. If the average year affects 1/150th of Earth’s orbit, then that’s the annual risk.
The sun is quiet. However, in fact the sun is mad. It is brighter than ever. We have a saying here in South Africa: Only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the sun at midday. [I experienced this today when I just had to go out in the sun at midday]
It is going to get madder still. It is in fact globally cooling:
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/files/2013/02/henryspooltableNEWc.pdf
I threw the dice three times
and every time it shows it IS getting cooler
How do you figure this? A hotter sun, means a cooler earth….
“I don’t want to cause alarm, but…”
_________________
Once I got past the
Harmonica VirginsHarmonic Convergence, I never even batted an eye at Global Warming, Y2K or the Mayan calendar 2012 end of the world. (Anyone heard the latest on Bigfoot?)Read both Summary and Final Report: cute and thin.
Interesting points: GCR “may” have low-cloud development impact, last report cited 1975. Clearly staying politically correct BUT on the skeptical side if you read between the lines.
States that 1/3 of all global heating since 1970 is solar forced, citing Lean 2012. Not so much a surprise of stretch, but a quantification that is NOT in the warmists’ benefit because it is falsifiable AND nails an upper limit to CO2 forcing. Oops.
Over all, a Fun for the Whole Family! and Can I Get a Discovery Program Out of This My Graphics are Done!
A Carrington Event would be significant. With all the brainpower involved, a solid assessment of at least the continental U.S. of A., would have been useful, not just an entertainment to read after watching Sharknado 2.
No doubt a Carrington Event would damage some electrical systems and might well have severe effects in localized areas. But I wonder if anyone can predict uniform global catastrophe. During the 1859 event, telegraphy was apparently globally disrupted. But telegraphing resumed the next day. Some systems were damaged, but there was no global collapse. Modern electronics are certainly more fragile than the old telegraph systems, but it is a question of degree.
As I understand it, the 1859 event was also double the strength of any in the previous 500 years and was in fact two flares, the first of which cleared the path for the second. So the odds of a single large solar flare are not the only issue. It seems to me that the question is whether there will be (1) two flares, (2) of similar intensity, (3) directed at Earth.
No question industry should take the risk into account in producing electronic equipment. And planning for response by utilities also makes sense. But color me skeptical as soon as someone starts demanding massive governmental action.
Part of me is reminded of the reported fears that turning on the Large Hadron Collider might destroy the universe, or at least the Earth. Or Y2K.
“the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.”
That’s as far as I have read so far and I laughed. We do not know the real odds. We just know it’s been 155 years since the Carrington. These things are random. The is no “overdue.” Such things do not happen like clockwork.
I expect I am the 30th one to point out this error. Fact is it COULD happen, but is not especially likely in this solar cycle, because it is a relatively quiet one. It IS a good thing to talk about because we are unprepared. This would knock out the US power grid and it would be months to years to repair it–if we could do so at all with no electricity, etc.
Right now, such an event would kill 90% of Americans–but that is only because we haven’t much thought about it. With some talk, we could lay in some food everywhere, decide on alternate methods of handling the grid so that large parts of it could be brought back up quickly, figure out safe emergency sewage handling, etc. etc. It can all be mitigated. There are ways to prepare so completely that there would be almost no casualties.
We do have enemies in this–those who believe that the world is so dangerously overpopulated that we have to kill 10% to 90% of the world’s human population as soon as possible to avert even worse catastrophe. Such people want that kill rate.
As individuals, you should be “prepping” for such a disaster, just in case. Every individual or family who can feed himself would be one less to contribute to the riots and trouble. No need to panic about it, just store foods that you like and eat regularly, have water, etc. If you do it right, you’ll also be prepared for unemployment or blizzards or local sewage line repairs, etc. It’s just prudence and wisdom to be prepared.
Actually, it’s more likely to happen with a solar cycle like this according to Leif. There is also the collapsing filaments thing. Maybe he will pop in and give us a reminder.
Roy says:
August 2, 2014 at 1:38 am
Nowadays lots of computer data is stored in “the Cloud.” Would that be safe?
It’s not safe now: Google/Apple/Microsoft has your data. 🙂
There is a fictional account, One Second After, which describes an EMP event over the continental US. Although this was caused by foreign nasties launching a few missiles from cargo ships in the Gulf of Mexico, the results are somewhat similar to the post by Unmentionable, but on a regional, not global scale. Well worth reading and preparing for (or not…).
You can always say I told you so and then take the pill…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Second_After
A few thoughts. While some people have pointed out that this event is unlikely in the near future they have missed the point that if it happened once it can happen again. So preparation is just common sense. Speaking about preparation those of you talking about storing food consider this. At most you might have food stored for 3 months though for most people it would be closer to a week. This food would have to be non-perishable and you’d need either enough fuel to cook it or stock only food that doesn’t need cooking. Even if you have food what about fuel for heating and cooking. Most of seem to think this would clear up in a few months. Suppose that they managed to repair the power grid from a complete collapse in 3 months (unlikely) do you think everything just going to fall back into place after power is restored. Also some of you have talked like this would be a local event, if something like this happened it would be a global event. There would be few if any unaffected areas from which to enact repairs. While I don’t think this is an immediate issue ignoring or downplaying it would be a mistake.
An Electromagnetic Pulse pulse? Is that like an ATM Machine?
.…………From what I understand, we would normally have 3-4 days of lead time to prepare so much of the grid could be protected……
as little as ten hours.
Ed Martin says:
August 2, 2014 at 12:43 pm
Actually, it’s more likely to happen with a solar cycle like this according to Leif. There is also the collapsing filaments thing. Maybe he will pop in and give us a reminder.
Yes, indeed, there are indications that extreme events tend to happen in cycles of moderate strength, but, essentially those events are unpredictable. Took me a bit to ‘pop in’ as I have been on my way home from Sapporo [Japan] the last couple of days.
Alan Robertson says:
August 2, 2014 at 10:08 am
“I don’t want to cause alarm, but…”
_________________
Once I got past the Harmonica Virgins Harmonic Convergence, I never even batted an eye at Global Warming, Y2K or the Mayan calendar 2012 end of the world. (Anyone heard the latest on Bigfoot?)
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Latest on Bigfoot? Traded to the Ravens for an offensive tackle and a second round draft pick.
(Rimshot)
On topic… as little as 50 years ago a large percentage of Americans still ran family farms. They would have been inconvenienced by a Carrington-type event, but they, and their neighbors would not starve and would make it though OK. Now, everyone is highly specialized and interdependent and there would be serious problems if the US lost the grid for even a week or two. Imagine what would happen to the current record number of people on public assistance. These generally are not the people who are prepping. People will do what is necessary to survive and America will be looking at a lot of hungry people with nothing to lose. Not pretty.
From http://www.tjugofyra7.se/msb/Arkiv/Avdelningar/Nyheter/Svar-solstorm-drabbade-Karlstad-1921/2012-04-20
Severe solar storm hit Karlstad 1921
One of the most severe effects of solar storms in Sweden hit the telephone station in Karlstad the night before Whitsunday in 1921. The station, then one of the first in Sweden, caught fire and the damages were made worse by the destruction of the system in place to alert the fire department.
During Pentcost 1921 the Northern Hemisphere was hit by a severe solar storm. Already the night before Whitsunday the telephone station in Karlstad had suffered disturbances when fuses and circuit breakers had burned out and tripped.
Around 2 am at Whitsunday night the 15th May [1921] a neighbor watched the wires and cables leading to the telephone station begin to glow, soon causing the station to catch fire. A policeman on patrol tried to activate a fire alarm installation, but since that did not had any reaction, a cyclist was sent to alert the fire station.
The fire in the telephone station caused all fire alarm installations to malfunction causing confusion at the fire station. The message from the cyclist brought clarity and action, but still with 20 minutes delay. The destruction was great and the next day the director of the Telephone Line Technical Service, F.R.Fredericksson from Goteborg arrived with the news that the disturbances were felt everywhere in the Swedish Telephone Net, especially in Svealand, but nowhere as severe as in Karlstad.
The Telegraph Company [who was in charge of the Telephone Network] assured everybody that no resources would be spared. Additional personnel from Goteborg and Orebro were called in to work 24/7 in three shifts. A temporary telephone station was set up within a few days, but initially only the most important customers were connected.
The newspapers in Karlstad followed the repair work from day to day and reported that businesses were paralyzed. The fire led to severe problems for banks and the Chamber of Commerce was talking about ‘Force Majeure’. Every day, businesses and banks would announce on the newspapers’ front page that their phone number was again ready for use.
The fire and the damages due to the solar storm became an expensive event for the Telegraph Company. The cost was computed to reach 200,000 kronor and, according to the Nya Wermland paper, the station was insured for 177,000 kronor, but when the insurance was up for renewal on April 1st it had been allowed to lapse as a cost-cutting measure.
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The telephone station burned down, but it was run by the telegraph company. Many countries have a PTT [Post, Telegraph, and Telephone service] system with central management of all three services.
When I lived on the Southern Oregon Coast, I learned for under $500, you can purchase an LPG generator, that runs off of 5 gallon white BBQ tanks. Each of which can give you around 10 hours of runtime at half load. The fuel won’t go bad and you can have a couple of full ones stored away either in the garage or out in a storage shed.
At 3500 watts with max burst to 5000 watts, its a good solution to a back up plan. Its stored in the garage with a pull starter, an old laptop, and some replacement tech like routers and switches and what not. The home grid will return, even if the rest of the world is dark. I need to add deep cycle recharge circuit to allow silent running for the fridge/freezer.
Somewhere deep in the human psyche there appears to be a sweet longing for the end of the world. The best explanation for the persistence of this myth seems to be that, unwilling to confront the reality of our own personal extinction, we prefer to project ‘the end’ onto the external world.
Back in the day of course, we had to just accept the Christian end times myth…now we’re lucky enough to be able to chose the type of extinction event which best suits our personality.
The Greenie Warmists clearly are very attached to their scenario, and the commenters above seem to be quite titillated by the Carrington Event route, but of course with Ebola in the news there’s always the delightful prospect of a nasty plague but let us not forget those two old favourites Caldera Eruption and the Nuclear Holocaust. Personally I’m dreading the return of the Rainbow Serpent.