The last time I wrote about this, it was ten:
Updated list of 29 excuses for the 18 year ‘pause’ in global warming (thanks to The Hockey Schtick).
| RSS satellite data showing the 18 year ‘pause’ of global warming |
An updated list of at least 29 excuses for the 18 year ‘pause’ in global warming, including recent scientific papers, media quotes, blogs, and related debunkings:
2) Oceans ate the global warming [debunked] [debunked] [debunked]
3) Chinese coal use [debunked]
5) What ‘pause’? [debunked] [debunked] [debunked] [debunked]
6) Volcanic aerosols [debunked]
8) Faster Pacific trade winds [debunked]
10) ‘Coincidence!’
11) Pine aerosols
12) It’s “not so unusual” and “no more than natural variability”
13) “Scientists looking at the wrong ‘lousy’ data”
14) Cold nights getting colder in Northern Hemisphere
15) We forgot to cherry-pick models in tune with natural variability [debunked]
16) Negative phase of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
18) “Global brightening” has stopped
20) “It’s the hottest decade ever” Decadal averages used to hide the ‘pause’ [debunked]
22) Temperature variations fall “roughly in the middle of the AR4 model results”
23) “Not scientifically relevant”
24) The wrong type of El Ninos
25) Slower trade winds [debunked]
26) The climate is less sensitive to CO2 than previously thought [see also]
27) PDO and AMO natural cycles and here
28) ENSO
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30) The Gore Effect
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gore_Effect
97% of all climate scientists have their own excuse for “the pause”.
Maybe some duplication on the list, e.g. 5 &12? Whichever way you cut it, the warmists would be embarrassed about it if it ever got into the public domain. Just as well for them that the msm are still onboard .
Point 26 makes sense. There is a strong negative feedback on the high side of temperature. That is why the tropical doldrums are so stable. On the cold side there is no negative feedback, so ice ages can form and remain stable for millennia. CO2 is a contributor to increased resiliency in the climate feedback:
http://lenbilen.com/2014/02/16/the-wonderful-planet-earth-complete-with-thermostat-or-is-it-out-of-control-without-human-intervention/
30 The dog ate my global warming.
I know you are not inviting comments on the Seitz post. But really, linking to his page (how do they still let him be attributed to Harvard?) he claims 13 publications. Now, for a supposed Physicist, this is a dismal reputation. In my previous lives as an academic manager I have instituted unsatisfactory performance proceedings against such dead wood.
Anthony, these people have nothing in their armoury other than despicable ad homs. They are emblematic of the forces of ignorance promoting the AGW scam.
Keep morale high!
Lazlo
I’m sorry..but everyone keeps ignoring the most obvious
…it was the ban on hairspray and big hair
I find it rather interesting, that many of the signs they point to (the few that make any sense), to indicate possible reasons for lack of warming…. are actually indicative of long term cooling.
Climate Science ™ is a prime example of Pathological Science as described by Irving Langmuir, http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathological_science
Note especially the use of ad hoc explanations every time the data and models don’t agree.
big difference is this time there ARE fools with money and the mindset to try n cool it down…and really make life crap if we are going to the cool side naturally.
Isn’t 27 some kind of repetition of 16 and 17?
Re Other posting with no comments allowed: Hope you are realizing that in Fact SG’s attitude to AGW promoters is what is required. They are in fact FABRICATING data, not massaging or biasing. I notice you are taking a much harder line re AGW and its mentors. Thank you. Your site is invaluable. Take care and please do NOT give up.
There’s nothing mysterious about it. Al Gore’s presence went global since he has failed to win the US presidential elections, therefore it is nothing else but the Global Gore Effect at work. He is actually saving the Planet, the greatest single achievement in human history. His Nobel Prize is well deserved.
I pray you give this chance to many more presidential candidate of yours.
30. It’s Bush’s fault (one).
31. It’s Bush’s fault (the other).
How exactly has the data showing that the oceans are warming been debunked (especially at the 0-2000m level)? http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
And what happens if/when that heat is released to the atmosphere, in the next Pacific Ocean cycle (ENSO and/or PDO)?
And why, when we have seen similar “pauses” (or even longer, say 1955-1980) in global atmospheric temperatures, is the current pattern called “The Great Pause”?
31. Gaia is getting older (due to climate change) and it is going through menopause.
Just kidding. BTW, Didn’t Mann say something about a lag between increasing CO2 levels and increasing temperature levels? Or something similar? The explanation sounded so unphysical that I didn’t pay much attention.
What?
Nobody blamed FOX News?
Next move by ipcc is going to be to say that new research shows world can handle set amount of co2, some band. And un will say it can only be produced by china,India, 3rd world to be fair. Anything above band will cause resumption of warming.
It’s just weather.
JohnWho:
FOX is a fence-sitter. I just looked at a story on their website. The AP article said this past June sets records for max temp.
The article contained the classic saying: “This is what global warming looks like.”
I then became nauseous and came here.To WUWT.
Throw it against the wall and see what sticks; the science is settled.
30. John Holdren is out to lunch.
31. John C. Beale is in the cooler.
It may be time to begin differentiation between ‘excuses’ and ‘reasons’. When people make an excuse, they are implying that their actions were in large part correct, but something unforeseen interfered with their expectations. In the case of climate change, excuses for the pause are designed to explain the lack of warming while maintaining the overall correctness of the CAGW theory.
But many items on the list are ‘reasons’ for the pause that actually undermine the CAGW theory and throw it in the dustbin of history. The most simple and most obviously true reason is number 26: “The climate is less sensitive to CO2 than previously thought.” There are many other reasons in the list that are tied to number 26, like all the ones referencing some kind of ocean/atmospheric cycle. including ENSO, PDO, AMO and so on. Once the warmests are forced to recognize the magnitude of these natural climate cycles, they must concede that their estimate of climate sensitivity to CO2, tuned in large part to a natural warming cycle, is far too large.
There are very real reasons for the pause, which may actually be the precursor to a cooling trend, and some or all of them are on the list. The excuses on the list, however, are further from reality than “the dog ate my homework”!
That there are 29 excuses is symptomatic of violations of the principles of entropy minimization and entropy maximization. Models are being based upon more than the available information or less.
A bit off topic, but there’s a story out about how the enviro-left clamored for Pielke’s scalp on 538, since he dared to question the Holy Wisdom imparted from On High.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/384057/burn-witch-roger-pielke-jr-out-fivethirtyeight-charles-c-w-cooke
proving, as if any proof was needed, that any possibility of a “reasonable dialogue” with our opponents is long, long, past. Anyone who tries to engage with the Left in any way, but who commits Heresy, will be professionally destroyed for his sins.
This is now a fight to the finish, and they are our enemies. They are no longer are countrymen, and should not be thought of as such.