EPA document supports ~3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources

NOTE: this post has an error, see update below. – Anthony

From a Wry Heat reprinted with permission of Jonathan DuHamel

A new post on The Hockey Schtick reviews a new paper “that finds only about 3.75% [15 ppm] of the CO2 in the lower atmosphere is man-made from the burning of fossil fuels, and thus, the vast remainder of the 400 ppm atmospheric CO2 is from land-use changes and natural sources such as ocean outgassing and plant respiration.”

This new work supports an old table from the Energy Information Administration which shows the same thing: only about 3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources.  The numbers are from IPCC data. 

Look at the table and do the arithmetic: 23,100/793,100 = 0.029.

URL for table: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/archive/gg04rpt/pdf/tbl3.pdf

EPA_Table3pct

If one wanted to make fun of the alleged consensus of “climate scientists”, one could say that 97% of carbon dioxide molecules agree that global warming results from natural causes.

===============================================================

UPDATE:

Thanks to everyone who pointed out the difference in the chart and the issues.

I was offered this post by the author in WUWT Tips and Notes, here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/tips-and-notes/#comment-1696307 and reproduced below.

The chart refers to the annual increase in CO2, not the total amount. So it is misleading.

Since the original author had worked for the Tucson Citizen I made the mistake of assuming it was properly vetted.

The fault is mine for not checking further. But as “pokerguy” notes, it won’t disappear. Mistakes are just as valuable for learning. – Anthony Watts

wryheat2 says:

July 28, 2014 at 12:28 pm

Mr. Watts,

John Droz suggested I contact you.

On my blog, I commented on the reasearch by Denica Bozhinova on CO2 content due to fossil fuel burining. She apparently scared The Hockey Schtick into taking down his post on the matter. However, there is an older table from EIA which I reproduce on my post.

Denica Bozhinova has commented extensively, and frankly, I can’t understand her position since she seems to contradict what she wrote in the abstract to “Simulating the integrated summertime Ä14CO2 signature from anthropogenic emissions over Western Europe”

See my post here (you may reprint it if you wish):

http://wryheat.wordpress.com/2014/07/19/only-about-3-of-co2-in-atmosphere-due-to-burning-fossil-fuels/

Jonathan DuHamel

Tucson, AZ

Get notified when a new post is published.
Subscribe today!
2 4 votes
Article Rating
311 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Nick Stokes
August 1, 2014 6:35 am

Samuel C Cogar says: August 1, 2014 at 5:59 am
“Ferdinand, do you know what these items are, to wit: …. magnetite (Fe3O4), hematite (Fe2O3), goethite (FeO(OH)), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)), siderite (FeCO3), gibbsite Al(OH)3, boehmite AlO(OH) and diaspore AlO(OH), ….. and/or how many giga-tons of them are processed each and every year?”

So why all questions? Why can’t you provide some facts?
About 1.5 Gtons iron ore reduced per year, depending on what you believe about China. That contains about 0.5 Gton oxygen.
We burn about 9 Gt C. That consumes about 24 Gt oxygen. Iron ore is a small source in comparison. And bauxite much less.

August 1, 2014 6:50 am

Nick Stokes says:
July 31, 2014 at 7:11 pm
There is an interactive gadget where you can try adding CO2 and see what changes. H*, HCO3- increase, CO3– decreases.

Nice job Nick, there’re also some similar gadgets available on the web, CDIAC has a downloadable program too: http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/co2calc/CO2calcNet.html

richardscourtney
August 1, 2014 7:11 am

Phil.:
re your temper tantrum at August 1, 2014 at 5:27 am.
Please try to see what your rattle is instead of waving it. A change of 0.1 in pH of the ocean surface layer is trivial and it commonly happens every day. Reality is not “nonsense”.
Now, please try to be a dear, pick up your toys, and go back to your romper room.
Richard

August 1, 2014 8:40 am

richardscourtney says:
August 1, 2014 at 7:11 am
Phil.:
A change of 0.1 in pH of the ocean surface layer is trivial and it commonly happens every day.

The topic under discussion was global pH change, and such a change does not ‘take place every day’.
For example, a minute change to ocean surface layer pH of 0.1 would alter the equilibrium of CO2 between air and ocean to induce more change to atmospheric CO2 concentration than has been observed. Such a pH change could not be induced by alterations to CO2 concentrations and fluxes because of the carbonate buffer.
As explained to you above and in the site I referred you to such a pH change is exactly what you’d get from a 120ppm change in CO2, that’s how the carbonate buffer works! Perhaps you should try it on Nick’s calculator.
And such a global 0.1 pH change is far too small for the limited available data to indicate it.
results from one of many sites:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/file/pH+Time+Series

August 1, 2014 9:02 am

Samuel C Cogar says:
August 1, 2014 at 5:59 am
Maybe for a change, you can read some scientific literature. There are people out there who measure things in the field like oxygen changes and 13C/12C changes in the atmosphere. See e.g.:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/287/5462/2467.short
The full article can be read after free registration:
Recent time-series measurements of atmospheric O2 show that the land biosphere and world oceans annually sequestered 1.4 ± 0.8 and 2.0 ± 0.6 gigatons of carbon, respectively, between mid-1991 and mid-1997.
or more recent:
http://www.bowdoin.edu/~mbattle/papers_posters_and_talks/BenderGBC2005.pdf
From 1994–2002, We find the average CO2 uptake by the ocean and the land biosphere was 1.7 ± 0.5 and 1.0 ± 0.6 GtC/year respectively
BTW, cement manufacturing and ore processing are included in human emissions of CO2. At least I hope they don’t return to rust in too short time (1/4th of our house rests on steel girders)

richardscourtney
August 1, 2014 9:17 am

Phil.:
I write to ask a question.
Your behaviour induced me to think you are a petulant child, but your persistence suggests you are a bot. Which is it?
Richard

August 1, 2014 12:13 pm

richardscourtney says:
August 1, 2014 at 9:17 am
Phil.:
I write to ask a question.
Your behaviour induced me to think you are a petulant child, but your persistence suggests you are a bot. Which is it?

Neither, just an experienced scientist, researcher/teacher who doesn’t like seeing the science misrepresented by the likes of you and has the patience to counter it. You on the other hand sound like you have either absolutely no clue about the science or that you might be a paid shill for the coal industry (or both), which is it?

August 1, 2014 2:07 pm

richardscourtney says:
August 1, 2014 at 9:17 am
Phil.:
I write to ask a question.
Your behaviour induced me to think you are a petulant child, but your persistence suggests you are a bot. Which is it?

Neither, I’m an experienced scientist, researcher/teacher who doesn’t like posts such as yours which misrepresent the science and is patient enough to continue pointing out your errors in case someone might think you actually knew something about the subject.
One might ask the same question of you.

richardscourtney
August 1, 2014 2:48 pm

Phil.:
I congratulate you that after all these years in your post at August 1, 2014 at 2:07 pm you have at last made an honest statement.
You admit you are an internet troll who is stalking me.
Of course you also laughably claim to be “an experienced scientist, researcher/teacher”, but you have managed to admit one honest truth so I think we can forgive your claiming that obvious nonsense. And if those claims were true then you would have a life so you would not need to bolster your ego by stalking me.
Richard

August 1, 2014 4:12 pm

richardscourtney says:
August 1, 2014 at 2:48 pm
Phil.:
I congratulate you that after all these years in your post at August 1, 2014 at 2:07 pm you have at last made an honest statement.
You admit you are an internet troll who is stalking me.

Really? You still have the same reading comprehension issues I see.

richardscourtney
August 1, 2014 11:58 pm

Phil.:
I leave it to onlookers to discern the accuracy with which I have comprehended your posts.
Richard

Samuel C Cogar
August 2, 2014 4:55 am

Nick Stokes says:
August 1, 2014 at 6:35 am
So why all questions? Why can’t you provide some facts?
——————
Nick S, do you mean …. some pseudo-facts … like you provided in the following, to wit:
Nick Stokes says:
About 1.5 Gtons iron ore reduced per year, depending on what you believe about China. That contains about 0.5 Gton oxygen.
We burn about 9 Gt C. That consumes about 24 Gt oxygen.

—————–
Nick, don’t be trying to sucker me into playing your game of Sciency Horseshoes wherein “about” is close enough to count as a FACT of science.
I do not know all of the atmospheric emission/absorption facts about O2 and CO2, and neither do you or anyone else. The only facts that I am reasonably sure of is their atmospheric ppm quantities that are measured in the “pristine” air atop Mauna Loa, Hawaii and the Antarctica. And the fact that said CO2 ppm increases and decreases an average 6 ppm on a steady and consistent bi-yearly cycle, just like clock-work. And the only thing in the natural world that functions on such an EXACT bi-yearly cycle is the seasonal changes in/of the equinoxes. THE ONLY THING, …. so write it down and remember it.
Remember that ….. if the ONLY exact bi-yearly cycle in/of the natural world is the EXACTY occurring bi-yearly cycle in/of the equinoxes ….. then the aforesaid bi-yearly cycling of CO2 ppm has to be the result of said bi-yearly cycling of the equinoxes.
One can NOT add up, subtract, multiply or divide …. the highly variable 100+- randomly occurring “annual” natural processes ….. and then honestly and/or non-religiously claim their results are proof of a steady and consistent cycle that EXACTLY repeats itself each and every year.

Samuel C Cogar
August 2, 2014 7:42 am

Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 1, 2014 at 9:02 am
Maybe for a change, you can read some scientific literature. There are people out there who measure things in the field like oxygen changes and 13C/12C changes in the atmosphere.
—————
Ferdinand, … GETTA CLUE, … I do not have a problem with the people who make said measurements or the result totals that they derive from said measurements. Nor do I have a problem with any person that measures your height or weight.
But I do have a problem, A BIG PROBLEM, with those people who are making said measurements, like yourself, ….. who claim they know EXACTLY why you are as tall as you are, ….. why you weigh as much as you do ….. or why the quantities of atmospheric O2, CO2, H2O, 13C and/or 12C are constantly changing from hour-to-hour or year-to-year.
=================
Ferdinand quoting:
Recent time-series measurements of atmospheric O2 show that the land biosphere and world oceans annually sequestered 1.4 ± 0.8 and 2.0 ± 0.6 gigatons of carbon, respectively, between mid-1991 and mid-1997.
——————
Ferdinand, was that not both an asinine and idiotic “statement of fact” …… simply because no one knows how much non-carbon sequestering of O2 occurred during said “time frame”.
One should not be making factual claims about “reaction” results that occur in an “open” environment

August 2, 2014 9:15 am

Samuel C Cogar says:
August 2, 2014 at 7:42 am
Samuel, if they can measure CO2 changes over the seasons, they can measure residual CO2 after a full seasonal cycle. They can measure O2 and 13C/12C changes over the seasons and account for O2 from the oceans (solubility as they warm or cool).
Thus the change of O2, 13C/12C and total CO2 can be measured quite accurately.
The change of the same caused by human activities can be calculated with reasonable accuracy. With “reasonable” one means within -0.5 / + 1 GtC/year for CO2 and similar accuracy for the derivatives.
The measurements and the calculations together give you what the difference was over a full seasonal cycle: more CO2 uptake than CO2 release by the sum of all natural processes.
BTW, do you know of one non-human process, except for the biosphere, which consumes oxygen? As far as I know everything that could be oxidized is already oxidized on earth…

Reply to  Ferdinand Engelbeen
August 2, 2014 9:38 am

Cold rain, wild fires, rust, and all animal life, etc. etc . Quantify that.

Bart
August 2, 2014 10:18 am

Nick Stokes says:
July 31, 2014 at 10:35 pm
“So there really is a temperature hockey stick? :)”
No, because the temperature is the derivative.
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 1, 2014 at 12:14 am
“What you have done is not only using different units, but you also moved the trend of emissions with an offset.”
No, you did that. I put the trend where it would match with the first half of the data, and then looked to see if it was continuing at that pace. It wasn’t.
You are cheating by changing the scale factor to continue getting a (not very good) match, which is diverging in slope anyway despite your effort to downplay the divergence.
“Its you who changed the slope (by using different units) and offset…”
This is… really dumb. I don’t know how to break the logjam in your mind.
“I did plot both on the same scale without any manipulation…”
Your plot is rife with manipulation, but you still can’t make the slopes the same for the last decade+.
“…where either the amplitude or the variability of the slopes match and only by coincidence…”
Two separate components which match right on top of each other with a single scale factor – that is one hell of a coincidence.
“Yes, it gives a 90 deg. out of phase for the simple reason that CO2 changes follow T changes with 90 deg. “
Which means that CO2 is following the integral of T. You cannot get around it.
The Bode Gain Phase Theorem is somewhat obscure, and a very clever and subtle bit of mathematics, so it is not surprising that you do not know of it or understand its implications. But, it says that, in a natural, non-minimum phase system, every lag of 90 degrees begets a -20 db/decade slope, i.e., a 90 deg phase lag indicates an integral relationship.
There is no way around it. You cannot just arbitrarily shift the phase without affecting the gain dynamics You cannot shift the phase for a 90 degree lag without having an integral relationship.
“There is not the slightest indication of a physical process in the past or present where CO2 will continue to be released by a sustained temperature difference without feedback from the whole CO2 cycle. “
Sure, there is. I suggested one such mechanism here.
“Bart, the short time variability is caused by the influence of temperature on vegetation. That is a proven fact.”
If you accept that, then you have to accept that the trend in temperature is driving the trend in the rate of change of CO2. You cannot just pick and choose arbitrarily which components have an effect, and which do not. It’s all, or nothing.

Bart
August 2, 2014 10:32 am

Samuel C Cogar says:
August 2, 2014 at 7:42 am
I feel your pain. Ferdinand revels in putting forward back-of-the-envelope figures, derived from his biases, which purport to precisely quantify his desired relationships. Usually, I just ignore it, because it diverts the discussion into examining the roots of the trees in his land-of-make-believe, and takes the focus off the forest in the real world.

Alan Robertson
August 2, 2014 2:20 pm

Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 2, 2014 at 9:15 am
“…if they can measure CO2 changes over the seasons, they can measure residual CO2 after a full seasonal cycle. They can measure O2 and 13C/12C changes over the seasons and account for O2 from the oceans (solubility as they warm or cool).
Thus the change of O2, 13C/12C and total CO2 can be measured quite accurately.
The change of the same caused by human activities can be calculated with reasonable accuracy. With “reasonable” one means within -0.5 / + 1 GtC/year for CO2 and similar accuracy for the derivatives.”
________________
Come on, Ferd E… quit trying to get anybody to fall for your trick of using data and science. Who do you think you’re talking to?
——————
“The measurements and the calculations together give you what the difference was over a full seasonal cycle: more CO2 uptake than CO2 release by the sum of all natural processes.”
_______________
Just because you’ve said it and put up all that math and those fancy schmancy graphs, that doesn’t prove anything! Just how do you propose to explain topsoil? No, wait…
——————
“BTW, do you know of one non-human process, except for the biosphere, which consumes oxygen? As far as I know everything that could be oxidized is already oxidized on earth…”
_________________
Again, come on, Ferd E- you know that’s likely to only be true for the past 2.4 Billion years, so why do you use that trick? What about before that, huh? Huh? Gotcha!
Religious zealots, sheesh. Don’t make me bring up stromatolites!
——————

FerdiEgb
August 2, 2014 2:59 pm

Bart says:
August 2, 2014 at 10:18 am
No, you did that. I put the trend where it would match with the first half of the data, and then looked to see if it was continuing at that pace. It wasn’t.
Bart, you can prove anything you want by manipulating a trend, that is what you have done by using different units and different offsets for two variables which in fact have the same units: either GtC/year (or month) or ppmv, but not GtC/year (or month) for one of them and ppmv for the other one.
If you plot them at the same scale (since when is plotting two variables on the same scale, starting from zero “cheating”?), there is hardly any change in airborne fraction, within the huge year by year variability.
But for your convenience, I have plotted the airborne fraction over the two halves of the Mauna Loa period:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/airborne_1960_cur.jpg
In the first period, about 60% remained in the atmosphere, in the second period about 40%, or in fact the sinks were responsible for 40% and 60% of the removal in quantity. Big deal in the variability which is between 10% and 90% of the human emissions. If that is all what the temperature influence can do over 2.5 decade (if it is the temperature influence at all, total CO2 pressure is what pushes more CO2 in the oceans and vegetation)…
Two separate components which match right on top of each other with a single scale factor – that is one hell of a coincidence.
They don’t match: either the slope is too high or the amplitude is too low:
Here Wood for Trees with the slope fitted
and here with a better amplitude.
The Bode Gain Phase Theorem is somewhat obscure, and a very clever and subtle bit of mathematics, so it is not surprising that you do not know of it or understand its implications.
I have read that story, but I don’t see the relevance for the T-CO2 relationship: it is about a one-variable amplifier + feedback system (I did build one some 55 years ago…). In the case of T influence on CO2, it is about the influence of one variable on another one, with little feedback of the second variable on the first.
Moreover, the variability and the gain are from different processes and are simply additive. The attenuation of the variability (which is mainly in the tropical forests) is very rapid. See slide 11 and following of Pieter Tans at:
http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/pdfs/tans.pdf
You cannot just arbitrarily shift the phase without affecting the gain dynamics
Which probably is true for a one-variable gain/feedback system, but that has hardly anything to do with a physical process where one variable has a small influence (4-5 ppmv/K) short term on another variable in one process (tropical vegetation) and a small influence (8 ppmv/k) long term on the same other variable in a complete different process (oceans, gain opposite to the first process). With hardly any feedback on the first variable…
Sure, there is. I suggested one such mechanism here.
Which is physically impossible without negative feedback from the carbon cycle:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/upwelling_incr_temp.jpg
Except if the whole carbon cycle increased a 4-fold in lockstep with the 4-fold increase of human emissions, for which there is not the slightest indication.
If you accept that, then you have to accept that the trend in temperature is driving the trend in the rate of change of CO2. You cannot just pick and choose arbitrarily which components have an effect, and which do not. It’s all, or nothing.
I think that your mistake is that you see the whole carbon cycle system as one process, which it is certainly not:
1. The seasonal cycle is dominated by the NH extra-tropical forests:
T up:
CO2 down (5 ppmv/K)
13C/12C ratio up
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/seasonal_CO2_d13C_MLO_BRW.jpg
2. The short term variability is dominated by the tropical forests:
T up:
CO2 up (4-5 ppmv/K)
13C/12C ratio down
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/temp_dco2_d13C_mlo.jpg
3. The long term gain is dominated by the oceans:
T up:
CO2 up (8 ppmv/K overall gain) by the oceans (but CO2 down by vegetation)
13C/12C ratio hardly changed
(I did not make a plot of that, but the long term ice cores T-CO2 plots are well known)
In all cases besides the human influence on the CO2 and 13C/12C changes.
Conclusion:
It is a clear mistake to treat the short term variability and the gain as caused by one process. The short term variability and the long term gain are from quite different processes.
[Were you expecting the different user_id? .mod]

FerdiEgb
August 2, 2014 3:11 pm

Alan Robertson says:
August 2, 2014 at 2:20 pm
Just because you’ve said it and put up all that math and those fancy schmancy graphs, that doesn’t prove anything! Just how do you propose to explain topsoil? No, wait…
Sorry, but that are not my figures. I have given the sources. If you don’t believe them, discuss it further with the authors of the measurements.
Topsoil is just a part of the huge carbon cycle. No part of a cycle is of interest for the end result: the difference between calculated and measured CO2, O2 and 13C/12C. That is all what matters for any increase or decrease in the atmosphere.
Again, come on, Ferd E- you know that’s likely to only be true for the past 2.4 Billion years
Sorry, we are discussing the past 160 years in relationship to the past 800,000 years. What happened before is highly interesting, but not discussed.

Alan Robertson
August 2, 2014 3:29 pm

FerdiEgb says:
August 2, 2014 at 3:11 pm
_________________
Now, you see? I should have used my sarc tag, after all (I thought I was being so obvious.)

richardscourtney
August 2, 2014 3:31 pm

Alan Robertson:
re your post at August 2, 2014 at 2:20 pm.
Ferdinand is multilingual but you need to use a sarc tag if you write sarcasm because he is likely to assume you are being serious. That has happened with his reply to you at August 2, 2014 at 3:11 pm.
He and I strongly disagree about the carbon cycle and his mistaken use of the logically flawed ‘mass balance argument’, but he is honest, honourable and very knowledgeable. And he takes time and effort to share his knowledge with others so it is a pity when he is induced to waste time because of failure to use a sarc tag.
Richard

Alan Robertson
August 2, 2014 3:48 pm

richardscourtney says:
August 2, 2014 at 3:31 pm
_____________
You’re right on all points and i know you were composing as I posted, so you didn’t see my response. Unfortunately, I’d written a lot more in response to Ferdinand’s latest and while striking that part in quest of brevity, also took out my apology for causing the confusion, so:
Sorry, Mr. Englebeen, I didn’t mean to take up your time answering yet another contentious post, but instead, thought I’d lighten up the situation a little bit with sarcasm.
All Apologies.

Alan Robertson
August 2, 2014 3:50 pm

Correction in response to Richard: “You’re right on all points in regard to my post to F.E.”

Bart
August 2, 2014 9:30 pm

FerdiEgb says:
August 2, 2014 at 2:59 pm
I’m sorry, Ferdinand, but what you have written here is just nonsense. Atmospheric CO2 and emissions are diverging. The divergence is accelerating. But, atmospheric CO2 matches the temperature relationship. Those are the facts, and they are right before your eyes.

August 3, 2014 1:20 am

Alan Robertson says:
August 2, 2014 at 3:29 pm
No problem, at all. I was not sure if it was sarcastic or not, that is the problem if it isn’t your mother tongue, sometimes the fine nuances are lost… Especially in English which has a lot of nuances for the same situation but all slightly different. Which isn’t easy to translate in other languages as these often have not the same broad vocabulary.
English had the same origin as Dutch and other Germanic languages, but was heavily influenced by the (French) Normans which introduced a lot of new words, which makes that English has a much broader vocabulary than most other languages (Spanish also is much broader).