A brief history of climate panic and crisis… both warming and cooling

GWBurningFrozenEarth[1]

Earth: A Climate Janus

From But Now You Know. There is most certainly a pattern to climate change…but it’s not what you may think:

For at least 114 120 years, climate “scientists” have been claiming that the climate was going to kill us…but they have kept switching whether it was a coming ice age, or global warming.

(A timeline of claims follows, updated to 2014)

  • 1895 Geologists Think the World May Be Frozen Up Again New York Times, February 1895
  • 1902 – “Disappearing Glaciers…deteriorating slowly, with a persistency that means their final annihilation…scientific fact…surely disappearing.” – Los Angeles Times
  • 1912 Prof. Schmidt Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice AgeNew York Times, October 1912
  • 1923 – “Scientist says Arctic ice will wipe out Canada” – Professor Gregory of Yale University, American representative to the Pan-Pacific Science Congress, – Chicago Tribune
  • 1923 – “The discoveries of changes in the sun’s heat and the southward advance of glaciers in recent years have given rise to conjectures of the possible advent of a new ice age” – Washington Post
  • 1924 MacMillan Reports Signs of New Ice Age New York Times, Sept 18, 1924
  • 1929 – “Most geologists think the world is growing warmer, and that it will continue to get warmer” – Los Angeles Times, in Is another ice age coming?
  • 1932 – “If these things be true, it is evident, therefore that we must be just teetering on an ice age” – The Atlantic magazine, This Cold, Cold World
  • 1933 America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776; Temperature Line Records a 25-Year Rise New York Times, March 27th, 1933
  • 1933 – “…wide-spread and persistent tendency toward warmer weather…Is our climate changing?” – Federal Weather Bureau “Monthly Weather Review.”
  • 1938 – Global warming, caused by man heating the planet with carbon dioxide, “is likely to prove beneficial to mankind in several ways, besides the provision of heat and power.”– Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
  • 1938 – “Experts puzzle over 20 year mercury rise…Chicago is in the front rank of thousands of cities thuout the world which have been affected by a mysterious trend toward warmer climate in the last two decades” – Chicago Tribune
  • 1939 – “Gaffers who claim that winters were harder when they were boys are quite right… weather men have no doubt that the world at least for the time being is growing warmer” – Washington Post
  • 1952 – “…we have learned that the world has been getting warmer in the last half century” – New York Times, August 10th, 1962
  • 1954 – “…winters are getting milder, summers drier. Glaciers are receding, deserts growing” – U.S. News and World Report
  • 1954 Climate – the Heat May Be OffFortune Magazine
  • 1959 – “Arctic Findings in Particular Support Theory of Rising Global Temperatures” – New York Times
  • 1969 – “…the Arctic pack ice is thinning and that the ocean at the North Pole may become an open sea within a decade or two” – New York Times, February 20th, 1969
  • 1969 – “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000″ — Paul Ehrlich (while he now predicts doom from global warming, this quote only gets honorable mention, as he was talking about his crazy fear of overpopulation)
  • 1970 – “…get a good grip on your long johns, cold weather haters – the worst may be yet to come…there’s no relief in sight” – Washington Post
  • 1974 – Global cooling for the past forty years – Time Magazine
  • 1974 – “Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age” – Washington Post
  • 1974 – “As for the present cooling trend a number of leading climatologists have concluded that it is very bad news indeed” – Fortune magazine, who won a Science Writing Award from the American Institute of Physics for its analysis of the danger
  • 1974 – “…the facts of the present climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would assign near certainty to major crop failure…mass deaths by starvation, and probably anarchy and violence” – New York Times

Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age

  • 1975 Scientists Ponder Why World’s Climate is Changing; A Major Cooling Widely Considered to Be InevitableNew York Times, May 21st, 1975
  • 1975 – “The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind” Nigel Calder, editor, New Scientist magazine, in an article in International Wildlife Magazine
  • 1976 – “Even U.S. farms may be hit by cooling trend” – U.S. News and World Report
  • 1981 – Global Warming – “of an almost unprecedented magnitude” – New York Times
  • 1988 – I would like to draw three main conclusions. Number one, the earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time in the history of instrumental measurements. Number two, the global warming is now large enough that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship to the greenhouse effect. And number three, our computer climate simulations indicate that thegreenhouse effect is already large enough to begin to effect the probability of extreme events such as summer heat waves. – Jim Hansen, June 1988 testimony before Congress, see His later quote and His superior’s objection for context
  • 1989 -“On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but – which means that we must include all doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climate change. To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, means getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This “double ethical bind” we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.” – Stephen Schneider, lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Discover magazine, October 1989
  • 1990 – “We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing – in terms of economic policy and environmental policy” – Senator Timothy Wirth
  • 1993 – “Global climate change may alter temperature and rainfall patterns, many scientists fear, with uncertain consequences for agriculture.” – U.S. News and World Report
  • 1998 – No matter if the science [of global warming] is all phony . . . climate change [provides] the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.” —Christine Stewart, Canadian Minister of the Environment, Calgary Herald, 1998
  • 2001 – “Scientists no longer doubt that global warming is happening, and almost nobody questions the fact that humans are at least partly responsible.” – Time Magazine, Monday, Apr. 09, 2001
  • 2003 – Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as “synfuels,” shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration” – Jim Hansen, NASA Global Warming activist, Can we defuse The Global Warming Time Bomb?, 2003
  • 2006 – “I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are, and how hopeful it is that we are going to solve this crisis.” — Al Gore, Grist magazine, May 2006
  • 2006 – “It is not a debate over whether the earth has been warming over the past century. The earth is always warming or cooling, at least a few tenths of a degree…” — Richard S. Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology at MIT
  • 2006 – “What we have fundamentally forgotten is simple primary school science. Climate always changes. It is always…warming or cooling, it’s never stable. And if it were stable, it would actually be interesting scientifically because it would be the first time for four and a half billion years.” —Philip Stott, emeritus professor of bio-geography at the University of London
  • 2006 – “Since 1895, the media has alternated between global cooling and warming scares during four separate and sometimes overlapping time periods. From 1895 until the 1930’s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920’s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950’s until the 1970’s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.” – Senator James Inhofe, Monday, September 25, 2006
  • 2007– “I gave a talk recently (on fallacies of global warming) and three members of the Canadian government, the environmental cabinet, came up afterwards and said, ‘We agree with you, but it’s not worth our jobs to say anything.’ So what’s being created is a huge industry with billions of dollars of government money and people’s jobs dependent on it.” – Dr. Tim Ball, Coast-to-Coast, Feb 6, 2007
  • 2008 – “Hansen was never muzzled even though he violated NASA’s official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind’s effect on it). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress” – Dr. John S. Theon, retired Chief of the Climate Processes Research Program at NASA, see above for Hansen quotes

Section updated by Anthony:

  • 2009Climate change: melting ice will trigger wave of natural disasters. Scientists at a London conference next week will warn of earthquakes, avalanches and volcanic eruptions as the atmosphere heats up and geology is altered. Even Britain could face being struck by tsunamis – “Not only are the oceans and atmosphere conspiring against us, bringing baking temperatures, more powerful storms and floods, but the crust beneath our feet seems likely to join in too,” – Professor Bill McGuire, director of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, at University College London, – The Guardian, Sep 2009.
  • 2010What Global Warming Looks Like. It was more than 5°C (about 10°F) warmer than climatology in the eastern European region including Moscow. There was an area in eastern Asia that was similarly unusually hot. The eastern part of the United States was unusually warm, although not to the degree of the hot spots in Eurasia. James HansenNASA GISS, August 11, 2010.
  • 2011Where Did Global Warming Go? “In Washington, ‘climate change’ has become a lightning rod, it’s a four-letter word,” said Andrew J. Hoffman, director of the University of Michigan’s Erb Institute for Sustainable Development.   – New York Times, Oct 15, 2011.

  • 2012Global warming close to becoming irreversible-scientists. “This is the critical decade. If we don’t get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines,” said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University’s climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London. Reuters, Mar 26, 2012
  • 2013Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating.  The 2013 hurricane season just ended as one of the five quietest years since 1960. But don’t expect anyone who pointed to last year’s hurricanes as “proof” of the need to act against global warming to apologize; the warmists don’t work that way. New York Post, Dec 5, 2013
  • 2014  – Climate change: It’s even worse than we thought.  Five years ago, the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change painted a gloomy picture of our planet’s future. As climate scientists gather evidence for the next report, due in 2014, Michael Le Page gives seven reasons why things are looking even grimmer. – New Scientist (undated in 2014)

 

The actual Global Warming Advocates’ chart, overlaid on the “climate change” hysterics of the past 120 years. Not only is it clear that they take any change and claim it’s going to go on forever and kill everyone, but notice that they even sometimes get the short-term trend wrong…

climate-claims

Worse still, notice that in 1933 they claim global warming has been going on for 25 years…the entire 25 years they were saying we were entering an ice age. And in 1974, they say there has been global cooling for 40 years…the entire time of which they’d been claiming the earth was getting hotter! Of course NOW they are talking about the earth “warming for the past century”, again ignoring that they spent much of that century claiming we were entering an ice age.

The fact is that the mean temperature of the planet is, and should be, always wavering up or down, a bit, because this is a natural world, not a climate-controlled office.

See also:

150 Years of Global Warming and Cooling at the New York Times

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joelobryan

This exploitation will always occur because too many people are gullible non-thinkers. Democrats are milking this low information crowd with support for new mostly hidden taxes and votes.

kenw

Climate cassandra……i like that

Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
Recorded history, not simulation form computer games.

FrankK

“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.” – Albert Einstein

knr

Heads I win , tails you lose , an approach which has nothing to do with real science so you can see why it finds such a happy home in climate ‘science’

Alan McIntire

Now I know why the Trojans ignored Cassandra.

But nothing was changing in the items which control the climate during those time frames, not until 2005 when solar went from a very active to inactive state.
Now , the temperatures in response to low solar activity post 2005 and continuing will be going lower. How much lower is the question.

tamojo

All politicians milk the low information crowd. Here is more low information: there are two political parties.

George Walton

The difference between the “warming scare” and the “global mean guesstimate” between about 1905 and 1925 is quite dramatic. Similarly for the cooling scare between about 1945 to 1970. It makes one wonder about the accuracy of the guesstimated temperature — or maybe just the need to scare people about something.

MJPenny

I like this one:
1938 – Global warming, caused by man heating the planet with carbon dioxide, “is likely to prove beneficial to mankind in several ways, besides the provision of heat and power.”– Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
🙂

dp
Daniel Hildebrandt

Anthony wrote:
“The fact is that the mean temperature of the planet is, and should be, always wavering up or down, a bit, because this is a natural world, not a climate-controlled office.”
There’s an interesting question… which changes to a greater degree – the average global (annual, to remove seasons) temperature, or the daily temperature in a climate-controlled office? Someone should set up a high-precision thermometer in an office building and see.
Working from home, I don’t have access to one now, but I’ve worked in office buildings before, and the temperature throughout the day is far from constant, even with the equipment set to maintain a fixed constant temperature. It would be interesting to present those two series overlaid and unlabeled (at first) as a comparison.
-Hildy

Gee, isn’t it interesting that the news media always highlights and publishes the most dire of predictions. Never have they produced a headline such as : “Climate very normal, no dangers foreseen by climate scientists.” To news organizations, the only news worth publishing is news that grabs the reader’s attention – mass murder, killer storms, climate catastrophes. It’s in their
very nature to exaggerate. It’s mostly what they do all day. Proof? Paul Ehrlich’s ability to make headlines after 40 years of magnificently incorrect predictions.

M Courtney

But this time is different.
The IPCC now has more confidence than ever.
They only have to be lucky once.

Why yes, there IS an Ice Age coming. Or, more exactly, we’ve BEEN in an Ice Age for the past ~2.58 million years, and currently are between continental glacial advances. One of which is due Real Soon Now. In geologic terms, that is, meaning anytime in the next 10,000 years or so.
We’re ALSO going into a solar minimum: sunspot activity is near zero, and those have historically been associated with “Little Ice Ages”: information on recent similar events may be found when researching the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum.
Neither class of events have ANY linkage to so-called Anthropocentric Global Warming, or whatever they’re calling it this week. . .

Nylo

I’m missing a very important headline in this article, very famoulsy wrong, from year 2000. Fortunately, I have the link to it:
“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

Tom O

” 2012 – Global warming close to becoming irreversible-scientists. “This is the critical decade. If we don’t get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines,” said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University’s climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London. Reuters, Mar 26, 2012 ”
I will admit that these were probably among the truest words spoken by the warmistas. But it needs a little interpretation – what he was referring to as in getting those curves turned around wasn’t that the world was going to go past the tipping point into a runaway climate ending in a Venus like climate. What he meant was that if they don’t get the energy production reduced and tillable land moved out of food production and into bio fuels, next decade’s “big chill” won’t be able to kill off enough of the useless eaters to make the world more comfortable for the “haves.”
In a world where so much is in doubt, taking the actions demanded by the AGW crowd can only prove fatal to untold millions. And since it has been warmer and has had higher levels of carbon dioxide in the past, waiting a little longer to put the safety net in place for those that need it won’t make a difference in the future. It tends to make me truly believe the ultimate reason for the hysteria is mass population reduction.

I particularly like the remark made by Philip Stott (emeritus professor of bio-geography at the University of London).
In a similar vein, I’d be scared to death if climate suddenly stopped changing, after 4.5 billion years.

David L. Hagen

Newspapers appear to be a lagging indicator – driven by alarmists scientists – seeking grant funding.

ralfellis

I don’t get that graph.
Should there not be blue bar-chart lines in the 1920s?

C.M. Carmichael

All of these scares are more about “headlines” and “deadlines” for newspapers and magazines than about their actual content. They really are not intended to inform just sell advertising, todays scares are no different, SARS, pig, bovine, bird flu, Y2K, overpopulation, ozone, sea level, ebola, child abductions, alien abductions. Most are at least a tiny bit true, but they get marketed as a media product to keep people focused on the ads and commercials. The big question is why we still believe anything the media say, people now have access to much more information outside that provided by traditional media. I guess it boils down to, everyone reads headlines, few read the corrections and retractions.

Every prediction is actually going to come true. Eventually. There problem is not in the predictions (an idiot child could make them), but in the timing. Eventually Canada will be part of the Arctic again! Eventually, temperatures will rise by 3ºC. But as the old cliche goes – in the long run, we are all dead.

Brian R

The problem with list like this is that the AGW crowd will point at it and say things like, “Look, they were predicting a warmer climate 90 years ago.”

Brad Rich

Hedge your bets. Write two books (one claiming a coming ice age, and the other claiming catastrophic heat), publish both, and advertise according to the weather. Million sellers, come snow or come shine.

Latitude

…but they have kept switching whether it was a coming ice age, or global warming.
====
…and they will continue to do that as long as things are perfectly normal
http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/histo4.png

James Strom

Nylo says:
July 29, 2014 at 8:27 am
“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
_______
You might like to compare that prediction with observation:
http://app.dundee.ac.uk/pressreleases/2010/prjan10/snow.htm

Figaro

Steven over at Real Science has been digging up and showing this kind of information for years. Somebody, sometime should recognise his relentless task of bringing the past into light: just about every aspect of climate we have right now, did happen before. Ergo… Cheers.

Bruce Cobb

This time really is different, though not the way the Alarmists would claim. A worldwide multi-$billion industry has been built up around the lie of manmade warming/climate change-chaos-disruption-extreme weather. As long as you repeat the lie, you are golden, in with Flynn. You will be rewarded, or at least get to feel good about “saving the planet”. Woe betide those who dare go against the Big Lie, though.

RH

Nylo says:
July 29, 2014 at 8:27 am
I’m missing a very important headline in this article, very famoulsy wrong, from year 2000. Fortunately, I have the link to it:
“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
——————————————————————-
Thirteen years later:
“Worst March snow for 30 years brings chaos”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9950516/Worst-March-snow-for-30-years-brings-chaos.html

Dave Ward

How about this update, fresh off the presses:
2014: “Climate Change causes wild Blackberries growing in English hedgerows to ripen one month early”

Tim Obrien

The problem is letting the Lame Stream Media -speculate- ahead instead of just reporting news like they’re supposed to…

2soonold2latesmart

C’mon now. We all know that the climate change we are experiencing is a direct result of Russian weather modification experiments that have been going on since the 1970s.
http://www.darkgovernment.com/weathermod.html
/sarcplusplus


“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”

Yeah, that was a day or two before this one:
“Frosty the Snowman Attempts Suicide”
/grin

Bruce Cobb

2015 (hopefully)
The movie Climate Hustle comes out, making a mockery of all the bogus claims and scams of the Climate Liars, and thus helping to put a stake through the heart of the already-wounded CAGW Beast.

F. Ross

Well of course today’s climate scientists are MUCH more qualified and sophisticated than those of past generations. This time – no matter whatever they are predicting – they are right. RIGHT?
/sarc

Solomon Green

Thanks for putting it all together. I have downloaded the article for future reference when arguing with the rare apostle of the new religion that I occasionally meet..

F. Ross

This post should be mandatory reading for California politicians and everyone of the “green” pursuasion, especially Gov. Moonbeams Brown.

Stephen Skinner

Thank you for sharing this.

Ian W

dp says:
July 29, 2014 at 8:16 am
Does any of this seem familiar?
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/the-common-core-pr-war-109460.html?hp=f1

It is all part of the same exercise. Common Core is about ensuring that the population is made up low information sheeple easy to scare and good voting fodder. Like Agenda21 it is carefully written to appear benign; that is until you look at its implementation.

The IPCC and the rest of the CAGW gaggle, are like Will Rogers busted watch – right at least twice every day..

TRM

So we are close to crossing the line?

Sorry I just had to. My childhood is coming back to me 🙂

Andy_E

Climate Cassandras seem to operate in a slightly different fashion to the original Cassandra of myth. She was given the power to accurately predict the future but was cursed in that nobody would believe her. Climate Cassandras on the other hand produce wonderful models that can’t predict anything accurately but the world is cursed in that huge numbers of people believe their every puerile utterance no matter how daft it may be, or even if it contradicts their previous chicken bone or tea leaf reading inspired drivel.

@Andy_E – Excellent comparison! I had never thought of it that way. I will use it in the future,

Can we bring out the guillotines yet? 😉

Kozlowski

“For at least 114 120 years, climate “scientists” have been claiming that the climate was going to kill us…but they have kept switching whether it was a coming ice age, or global warming.”
but… but… our computers are faster now…
/s

Dave N

“Worst March snow for 30 years brings chaos”
You forgot to add: “this is consistent with global warming”. This is of course despite the occurrence being in total contradiction to the earlier prediction that was also supposed to be due to “global warming”; the hysterical don’t credit others with much intelligence.

Crispin in Waterloo

Notice how they used to consult geologists, not climate scientists?
Have you ever met a geologist who believes we are presently in a position to catastrophically alter the climate with our CO2 emissions?
Neither have I.

A Crooks of Adelaide

Looking at the Grant-o-meter diagram at the bottom I would suggest that the period 1945 to 1975 provides a good proxy for just how much tampering with the global temperature data for that period has been going on.
Need to compare modern temp data with Mathews 1976 (sorry no link, but Joe Nova had this
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/03/hiding-a-different-decline-and-rewriting-history/)

BallBounces

“It was 14 years ago now when UK climate scientists argued that global warming would make snowfall a “a very rare and exciting event”.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/04/top-5-failed-snow-free-and-ice-free-predictions/#ixzz38uOpTy7z
Torontonians almost croaked this winter from all the, er, rare and exciting events.

Jtom

Clearly, every movement needs a theme song. I suggest, “Oh! Susanna,” which contains these wonderfully appropriate lines for both the global cooling and global warming adherents:
“It rained all night the day I left,
The weather it was dry.
The sun so hot I froze to death,
Susannna, don’t you cry.”

thingadonta

We have always been at war with global warming.