NCDC responds to identified issues in the USHCN

The NCDC press office sent an official response to Politifact, which is below.

The NCDC has not responded to me personally, I only got this by asking around.

I’ve provided it without comment. 

=====================================================
Are the examples in Texas and Kansas prompting a deeper look at how the algorithms change the raw data?
No – our algorithm is working as designed.  NCDC provides estimates for temperature values when:
1) data were originally missing, and
2)  when a shift (error) is detected for a period that is too short to reliably correct.  These estimates are used in applications that require a complete set of data values.
Watts wrote that NCDC and USHCN are looking into this and will issue some sort of statement. Is that accurate?
Although all estimated values are identified in the USHCN dataset, NCDC’s intent was to use a flagging system that distinguishes between the two types of estimates mentioned above. NCDC intends to fix this issue in the near future.
Did the point Heller raised, and the examples provided for Texas and Kansas, suggest that the problems are larger than government scientists expected?
No, refer to question 1.

==================================================

 

Get notified when a new post is published.
Subscribe today!
0 0 votes
Article Rating
147 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Jimmy Finley
July 1, 2014 6:42 pm

Oh yes, they all seem like really fine guys. I’m sure they will take action to correct any issues that our research points out.
“…No – our algorithm is working as designed…..”
C’mon people, these slugs, true believers or warming evangelists – whatever they are – are not going to do the “right thing”. Go ahead: launch FOIA or congressional hearings or whatever. At the end of the day, their computers will have burned down and been junked. They are laughing at you. And you keep on talking to them nicely. They need to be fired with prejudice; lose their rich pensions; go to prison. But I doubt we will live long enough to see it happen.

Alec aka Daffy Duck
July 1, 2014 6:48 pm

Hmm, you’ve seemed to have hit a never… You should poke them again harder!

July 1, 2014 6:51 pm

Did the point Heller raised, and the examples provided for Texas and Kansas, suggest that the problems are larger than government scientists expected?
No, refer to question 1.

Tony Heller’s answer:
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/02/government-scientists-expected-the-huge-problems-we-found

Geoff
July 1, 2014 6:55 pm

In reality they have admitted that their output is not fit for purpose. To amend the data to support applications that require a full set should not be their output. That is something those applications should be doing themselves.
It’s start again time.

Wyo Skeptic
July 1, 2014 6:57 pm

The Climate at a glance portion of the NCDC website is giving nothing but wonky data right now. Choose a site and it gives you data where the min temp, avg temp and max temp are the same. Change settings to go to a statewide time series and what it does is give you made up data where the average is the same amount above min as max is above avg.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
Roy Spencer noticed it first in his blog about Las Vegas. I checked it out of curiosity and it is worse than what he seemed to think. It is totally worthless right now.

mark
July 1, 2014 6:59 pm

duh. It’s an al-gore-rhythm.
working as designed…

MattN
July 1, 2014 7:09 pm

Wait. The algorithm is working AS DESIGNED?!? It’s SUPPOSED to make up data?!?
It really is “man made global warming” huh??

Paul in Sweden
July 1, 2014 7:11 pm

….This is Climate ‘science’ and nothing matters. Conclusions have been written and will have already been widely distributed well before evidence & hearings are held.
We walked in, sat down, Obie came in with the twenty seven eight-by-ten
Colour glossy pictures with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back
Of each one, sat down. Man came in said, “All rise.” We all stood up,
And Obie stood up with the twenty seven eight-by-ten colour glossy
Pictures, and the judge walked in sat down with a seeing eye dog, and he
Sat down, we sat down. Obie looked at the seeing eye dog, and then at the
Twenty seven eight-by-ten colour glossy pictures with circles and arrows
And a paragraph on the back of each one, and looked at the seeing eye dog.
And then at twenty seven eight-by-ten colour glossy pictures with circles
And arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one and began to cry,
’cause Obie came to the realization that it was a typical case of American
Blind justice, and there wasn’t nothing he could do about it, and the
Judge wasn’t going to look at the twenty seven eight-by-ten colour glossy
Pictures with the circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each
One explaining what each one was to be used as evidence against us.

http://youtu.be/6IWSMhUINPk

sinewave
July 1, 2014 7:15 pm

“No – our algorithm is working as designed” I want to use that phrase every time someone asks me about something I messed up on. Is it copyrighted? 🙂

José Tomás
July 1, 2014 7:16 pm

dccowboy says:
July 1, 2014 at 6:30 pm
Eliza says:
July 1, 2014 at 6:19 pm
It needs to be brought to the attention of Mainstream media. This is probably the single most importantpoint about all this. Most have not even heard of this.It is quite a story.
======================
IF you think this, you haven’t been paying attention. The ‘mainstream’ media loves nothing better than a ‘we’re all gonna die’ story, which is what they get from the current Admin and the IPCC. That sells newspapers.
——————————————————————-
Maybe not.
Yes, the MSM loves a ‘we’re all gonna die’ story, but I am not sure if this particular story is able to sell newspapers anymore. The public has shown they are fed up with it and not paying attention anymore.
OTOH, a good “Government Scandal” story has the odds of selling many more newspapers.
Unless selling newspapers is not their primary concern…

dp
July 1, 2014 7:17 pm

Quotes from the movie “The Man Who Would Be King”:

Peachy Carnehan: What’s he saying, Billy?
Billy Fish: Danny’s bleeding. They know! He says not god, not devil, but man!
Peachy Carnehan: [approaches Danny] They’ve twigged it, Danny. You’ve had it! The jig’s up!
Daniel Dravot: [grabs arrow and raises hand in proclamation] I, Sikander –
Peachy Carnehan: [cuts off Danny] For God’s sake!
Peachy Carnehan: [grabs Danny and leads him down the temple stairs] We’ve got to brass it out, Danny. Danny, brass it out!

h/t: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073341/quotes
They’re brassing it out. Next will be the Hillary Defense: “What difference does it make?”

Tommy E
July 1, 2014 7:19 pm

@JohnWho says: July 1, 2014 at 6:22 pm …
Very tricksey, these NCDC hobbits.
Take it back! No Hobbit ever did anything even remotely that foul or evil. Even Gollum had enough of a conscience left at the end to try to get others to do his dirty work, and even then he argued bitterly with himself.

José Tomás
July 1, 2014 7:20 pm

… And I still think that this is a story that James Taranto from the WSJ will find very very interesting.

mjc
July 1, 2014 7:21 pm

It was issued by the US government…so it should be public domain.

Polly
July 1, 2014 7:27 pm

If you can invent temperature data for locations where a station used to be, then it’s equally valid to place a fake station anywhere else you might want one. Why maintain real stations at all? For that matter, why maintain tide gauges and ocean buoys at all? Just think of the cost savings!

mjc
July 1, 2014 7:34 pm

Polly…cost savings are NOT even in the lexicon.

Shub Niggurath
July 1, 2014 7:47 pm

Algorithm is worked as designed?
How *else* would it work?

Abbott
July 1, 2014 7:47 pm

I read the response in a different vein: “We were under orders to do it this way. We didn’t like it, but we were over-ruled. Please keep the pressure on so we can get out from under the palm of this **** and get back to reliable, scientific record keeping and analysis.”

D. B. Cooper
July 1, 2014 7:48 pm

NOAA . . . The Enron of Climate Data.
Some NOAA people need to be ass kicked, some NOAA people need to be fired, some NOAA people need to be in jail. Then NOAA need a to be terminated.
Utterly useless organization squandering precious tax dollars on pseudo scientific crap.

TomR,Worc,MA,USA
July 1, 2014 7:49 pm

philjourdan says:
July 1, 2014 at 5:48 pm
============================

Tom J
July 1, 2014 7:51 pm

The following is copied from Wikipedia as a definition for an algorithm:
‘An algorithm is an effective method expressed as a finite list of well-defined instructions for calculating a function. Starting from an initial state and initial input … the instructions describe a computation that, when executed, proceeds through a finite number of well-defined successive states, eventually producing “output” and terminating … The transition from one state to the next is not necessarily deterministic; some algorithms, known as randomized algorithms, incorporate random input.’
Hmm; “not necessarily deterministic.” So, could that be a description of the NCDC’s algorithm, “working as designed?” There’s really no necessity for a physical reality in this game, is there?

ossqss
July 1, 2014 8:10 pm

So,,,,, how long has this algorithm/process/practice been taking place?
Now, I am interested.

lee
July 1, 2014 8:23 pm

I’m trying to find out if the algorithm is used outside USA? BOM, Met UK etc.

phodges
July 1, 2014 8:49 pm

“Finn on July 1, 2014 at 5:37 pm
“No – our algorithm is working as designed”
I guess this rules out incompetence.”
Exactly…

Konrad
July 1, 2014 8:53 pm

Nick Stokes says:
July 1, 2014 at 6:30 pm
———————————
“That’s what USHCN does now. They provide a raw data file, and an adjusted file (F52), and there they mark (with an E) estimated data. They also provide a file with TOBS adjustment only.”
“does now”? Yes, we have noted the panicked scrabbling…
Oh, and about that TOB thing. Care to clarify whether actual individual station metadata is being used for individual station TOB adjustments?
It wouldn’t be that Tom Karl’s pet rat TOBy is still nibbling on the data would it? Using an program that makes TOB adjustments without individual station metadata would be a bad thing. A very bad thing…