Guest essay by David Archibald
A couple of years ago the question was asked “When will it start cooling?” Of course solar denialists misconstrued this innocent enquiry. There is no doubt – we all know that lower solar irradiance will result in lower temperatures on this planet. It is a question of when. Solar activity is much lower than it was at a similar stage of the last solar cycle but Earthly temperatures have remained stubbornly flat. Nobody is happy with this situation. All 50 of the IPCC climate models have now been invalidated and my own model is looking iffy.
Friss-Christenson and Lassen theory, as per Solheim et al’s prediction, has the planet having a temperature decrease of 0.9°C on average over Solar Cycle 24 relative to Solar Cycle 23. The more years that pass without the temperature falling, the greater the fall required over the remaining years of the cycle for this prediction to be validated.
The question may very well have been answered. David Evans has developed a climate model based on a number of inputs including total solar irradiance (TSI), carbon dioxide, nuclear testing and other factors. His notch-filter model is optimised on an eleven year lag between Earthly temperature and climate. The hindcast match is as good as you could expect from a climate model given the vagaries of ENSO, lunar effects and the rest of it, which gives us a lot of confidence in what it is predicting. What it is predicting is that temperature should be falling from just about now given that TSI fell from 2003. From the latest of a series of posts on Jo Nova’s blog:
The model has temperature falling out of bed to about 2020 and then going sideways in response to the peak in Solar Cycle 24. What happens after that? David Evans will release his model of 20 megs in Excel in the near future. I have been using a beta version. The only forecast of Solar Cycle 25 activity is Livingstone and Penn’s estimate of a peak amplitude of seven in sunspot number. The last time that sort of activity level happened was in the Maunder Minimum. So if we plug in TSI levels from the Maunder Minimum, as per the Lean reconstuction, this is what we get:
This graph shows the CET record in blue with the hindcast of the notch-filter model using modern TSI data in red with a projection to 2040. The projected temperature decline of about 2.0°C is within the historic range of the CET record. Climate variability will see spikes up and down from that level. The spikes down will be killers. The biggest spike you see on that record, in 1740, killed 20% of the population of Ireland, 100 years before the more famous potato famine.
I consider that David Evans’ notch-filter model is a big advance in climate science. Validation is coming very soon. Then stock up on tinned lard with 9,020 calories per kg. A pallet load could be a life-saver.
David Archibald, a Visiting Fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short (Regnery, 2014).
UPDATE:
For fairness and to promote a fuller understating, here are some replies from Joanne Nova
A Guy Named Jack (@JackHBarnes)
Winter in the south has just started and the trend is clear.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2014.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_SH_2014.gif
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
Greg and ThinkingScientist:
The phase response of the “notch” cannot be determined because the notch is based on absence of signal, i.e. there is nothing to measure the phase of, a bit of a fatal issue for the hypothesis of a notch IMHO.
The highest jump of sea ice in the Antarctic since 1979, greater even than in 2008.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
We see high a concentration of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
Floyd says
I have been a professional geophysicist for 40 years, and I am definitely no stranger to technical conflict – at times, extremely bitter
Henry says
I agree with your sentiments. My understanding of a blog like this, is [was] that we are all teachers and students to each other. If I ask you a question then you assume the position of teacher and vice versa. The point is that we must at all times remain polite, just as if we were in college or at university\..REMEMBER, WUWT is a public forum. Just like the classroom or the lecture hall, this is not the place to have a bad mood and/or exhibit fits of jealousy or rage. As far as I remember people who could not contain themselves were simply asked to leave the room/hall.
If we just remember to have respect for each other, no matter how dumb the problem or simple the question, then we will both develop and grow and we will continue to be together because of our interest in each other.
Henry
Folks, I am very aware that 10s of thousands of eyes read this blog from the farmer in the dell plowing the field, to the research chair bent over her bunsen burner. If we truly want transparency in research we should all be careful to do two things and remember one:
The to do llist:
1. Speak slowly and thoughtfully, especially if I have no substantial active employment in this science.
2. Challenge vetted proposals, yes, but especially challenge unvetted proposals.
The remember list:
1. Wiser readers than I have been snookered about celestial things.
To the good Lord, I have always had a bit of a glitch with your otherwise wisely communications. The glitch for me has been in your now and again briefly mentioned solar piece when running through the science of climate change. That is not to say that you have not also listed other aspects of this debate that will stand the test of time. In this thread I fear your previously hardly mentioned solar piece has raised its head beyond the well-vetted and decent solar science understanding, thus your communication and behavior here has been to your detriment.
Pamela Gray says:
June 30, 2014 at 6:07 am
To the good Lord […] your communication and behavior here has been to your detriment.
I can second that. Perhaps his admiration for Mr Evans’ unfunded, unselfish, and not-for-financial-gain attempt on notoriety has gotten the better of him. We can all have a bad hair day, so we might hope that Mr Monckton’s behavior will be a but singular occurrence and that he soon will be back on track joining the good fight.
HenryP says:
June 30, 2014 at 5:57 am
……The point is that we must at all times remain polite, just as if we were in college or at university
It hardly likely that discussing a controversial science subject, as often we do, that we will agree, but civility in the exchanges is desirable and far more productive. To expand on the Moliere’s quote above: a wise man has no necessity for resorting to insults, and if subjected to such will not respond in kind.
Sorry.
We see high a concentration of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.004.png
Does the variation in TSI (such as it is) occur at wavelengths that are meaningful to surface temperatures?
claimsguy says:
June 30, 2014 at 7:55 am
Does the variation in TSI (such as it is) occur at wavelengths that are meaningful to surface temperatures?
As TSI encompassed ALL wavelengths it also covers wavelengths that influence the surface temperatures. Now, it is possible, and there have been hints – but no conclusive evidence, that variations at some wavelengths are opposite to [and thus compensate for] variations at other wavelengths such as to produce less variation of the total. We would expect such variations themselves to vary with solar activity, so TSI or the sunspot number or any other indicator of solar activity would also be a proxy for those variations.
Let us summarize. Mr Svalgaard has accused Dr Evans, in increasingly malicious tones, of having acted “almost fraudulently” in that he used a dataset for total solar irradiance that Mr Svalgaard disapproved of. Now, having been informed that his gratuitous accusation of criminality, accompanied by a characteristically vicious allegation that Dr Evans has an “agenda”, has caused offense, he doubles down his nastiness, as he all too often does, by now accusing Dr Evans of seeking notoriety. This matter now passes to the authorities at the university with which Mr Svalgaard is associated, whose policy on good conduct Mr Svalgaard has grievously breached. I am asking the university to intervene with Mr Svalgaard in the hope that he can persuade him to apologize to Dr Evans and to moderate his language in future.
What is the scientific point at issue? There isn’t one. Dr Evans set a cut-off date for his data so that he could get on with other aspects of what is a formidably large project for one person to attempt. One of the reasons why he is not yet quite ready to release his code and data is that he is now updating more than 200 datasets that are or can be linked to the model. He has already made some adjustments to the total-solar-irradiance dataset in the light of comments made long before, and far more politely than, the rude, hate-filled comments of Mr Svalgaard. All of this is made quite plain in his various postings at Joanne Nova’s excellent website.
Mr Svalgaard says he does not think solar activity is in decline. He is entitled to his opinion. But if he will visit the splendid ClimateDepot website he will find an impressive and thorough list of the numerous scientists and groups issuing statements to the effect that they expect some cooling in quite short order, and that the main reason is that solar activity is in a steep decline, which, in Dr Evans’ opinion, became precipitous in 2003/4.
Now, Dr Evans may or may not be right about this, but when he releases his code and data anyone will be able to use any relevant TSI dataset, or perhaps adopt that of Mr Svalgaard on his research page, where his “guess” (that is what he calls it) is that total solar irradiance, as estimated from the sunspot count, will by 2020 reach a low not seen since the Dalton Minimum of 1820, when a fifth of the population of Ireland (to name just one country) died.
As I have said before, there is a general standard of courtesy in scientific debate which – particularly in the climate debate – tends to break down whenever a non-specialist in a given subject dares to say anything about that subject. Scientists do themselves no favors by trying to prevent the layman (in Dr Evans’ instance, a more than usually well informed layman) from taking an intelligent interest in their specialist field. Dr Evans’ model is designed not only to accept the input that he has been using, but to use any suitable input. To dismiss the model as worthless because one input dataset is uncongenial seems to be going rather too far.
Mr Eschenbach, meanwhile, continues to insist that Dr Evans should not have disclosed an outline of his research. He would have preferred him to disclose nothing at all until he was ready. Dr Evans, in the interest of the most rapid possible disclosure, has given a general account of his work ahead of time, for good and sensible reasons. Mr Eschenbach asks where it was that he said he did not believe Dr Evans is intending to release all his code and data when he is ready. Well, on several occasions in this thread, Mr Eschenbach says he is trying to get Dr Evans to release his code and data. Given that Dr Evans has repeatedly said from the get-go that he intends to release his code and data, the only reasonable inference is that Mr Eschenbach does not believe him. For otherwise Mr Eschenbach would find himself in the ludicrous position of arguing, in effect, that Dr Evans had disclosed the outline of his research too early: for that is equivalent to his suggesting that Dr Evans is disclosing the details of his research too late.
To those who say I have done myself no favors by standing up for Dr Evans against some unpleasant, unjustifiable and intemperate criticism, I say that it is better that some of the venom should be redirected at me, so that Dr Evans – and I declare an interest, in that I am proud to be a friend of the family – can concentrate on giving his mighty project a final polish, whereupon those who have adopted preconceived positions before seeing the full detail will have the chance to do their level best to tear down what he has created, crowing and cawing as they try to do so.
To those who assume I am defending Dr Evans’ conclusions before he has published them, I say that I have made it quite clear that much of what he has done is beyond my knowledge, but that the bits I can understand make sense and seem to be right. Dr Evans himself is a quiet and modest man. He has at no stage tried to claim that he and he alone has reached the definitive answer. He has at every stage, first privately and then publicly, said that if his theory is falsified by events or by those pointing out some fundamental flaw in the theory, then that will be that. But at least he has tried, which is more than can be said for some of his unreasoning detractors here.
http://notrickszone.com/2014/06/29/german-geologist-ipcc-models-a-failure-have-no-chance-of-success-sees-possible-0-2c-of-cooling-by-2020/
As they say the moment of truth is upon us. All the contrasting theories are out now the climate going forward will decide who is correct and who is not correct.
I plan on being correct.
REPLY: As history has shown us, even the best laid plans of mice and men can be rendered moot by Nature – Anthony
Monckton of Brenchley says:
June 30, 2014 at 8:23 am
Let us summarize. Mr Svalgaard has accused Dr Evans, in increasingly malicious tones, of having acted “almost fraudulently” in that he used a dataset for total solar irradiance that Mr Svalgaard disapproved of.
The fact is that I and others have pointed out that the assertion by Mr Evans that there has been a sharp drop in TSI from the 2003-2005 time frame to the present is false [and he should have known that] and that therefore his prediction is spurious. This is what I disapprove of. In addition to the fact that Mr Evans has fabricated 900 days of data at the end of the data series. Both of those are serious breaches of scientific propriety.
Eli Rabett says: June 30, 2014 at 12:40 am
You are missing something. It is well known that climatological variables do not follow the TSI, and the reason is that variation in the TSI is almost entirely in the UV which is absorbed above the tropopause by ozone and oxygen
Too bad UV can’t get through the atmosphere, the plants need it to live.
Here is a collection of comments [unbecoming a gentleman] by Mr Evans’ sidekick:
Monckton of Brenchley says:
June 28, 2014 at 2:44 pm
He is a quack, not a scientist. This was not inadvertence on his part: it was plain wickedness. Nothing he ever says again on any scientific subject can or will be taken seriously. He is finished, dead by his own hand.
Monckton of Brenchley says:
June 28, 2014 at 6:16 pm
Mr Svalgaard can no longer be taken seriously as a scientist.
Monckton of Brenchley says:
June 29, 2014 at 12:47 pm
There are certain minimum standards in scientific discourse, and Mr Svalgaard, here as all too often before, has fallen well below them.
Monckton of Brenchley says:
June 29, 2014 at 2:24 pm
Mr Svalgaard is using incorrect data. Plainly he has an agenda.
Monckton of Brenchley says:
June 30, 2014 at 8:23 am
the rude, hate-filled comments of Mr Svalgaard.
I agree Anthony. Still I think opinions are needed if based on research and study as long as the opinion is sincere and one does not make excuses if wrong.
Leif says: “Mr Evans has fabricated 900 days of data at the end of the data series”.
I don’t think there was any fabrication, just the problem of establishing an average TSI for recent years where the averaging “filter” runs out of data to operate on.
Might there also be an “invalid” decline introduced around 2003-2005 in the composite time series from the (presumably linearly tapered) splice of 2 data sets with slightly different calibrations?
NikFromNYC says:
June 29, 2014 at 8:29 pm
…
“Were I obliged to have a religion, I would worship the sun the source of all life the real god of the earth.” – Napoleon Bonaparte
//////////////////////
And that is, of course, precisely what Akenhaten (the father of Tutankhamun) did. This is the earliest recorded example of monotheistic worship, and it threw Eqypt into religous turmoil.
MikeUK says:
June 30, 2014 at 9:23 am
I don’t think there was any fabrication, just the problem of establishing an average TSI for recent years where the averaging “filter” runs out of data to operate on.
When the filter runs out of data the proper thing is not to plot anything beyound that point.
Might there also be an “invalid” decline introduced around 2003-2005 in the composite time series from the (presumably linearly tapered) splice of 2 data sets with slightly different calibrations?
This is irrelevant as no splice is needed for the 2003-2014 SORCE/TIM data.
lsvalgaard says:
June 30, 2014 at 9:04 am
///////////////////
i am sure that most impartial observers would have picked up that there has been name calling by both sides, unbefitting to both.
It makes better reading if everyone sticks to the science. Come on guys.
Kadaka says
Your WFT call-outs make my eyes shriek in agony that reverberates to my anus.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/to:2014/plot/rss/from:1979/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1979/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1979/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1979/to:2014/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1979/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/
Whole years for proper trends, from start of satellite record to end of last full year ….etc
Henry says
Come on. Perhaps I should explain to you the sun reaches its maximum brightness exactly 7 years after the exact opposition of saturn and ur anus.
Unless you were looking at specific cycles, why not add the half year of data from 2014 that we already have?
True, HADSST3 looks flat from 2002,
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2015/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2015/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:2002/to:2015/trend
but what, exactly is the difference between HADSST2 and HADSST3?
Anyway, I have another global 3 data sets, compiled by myself, which all show cooling from 2000, namely at a rate of -0.014K/annum since 2000.
I am sure those worried about “global warming” will be pleased with my results.
richard verney says:
June 30, 2014 at 9:29 am
I am sure that most impartial observers would have picked up that there has been name calling by both sides, unbefitting to both.
As an impartial observer could you perhaps compile a list of my escapes into name-calling land. Thanks, it would be most helpful.
Leif
HenryP says:
June 30, 2014 at 9:30 am
Come on. Perhaps I should explain to you the sun reaches its maximum brightness exactly 7 years after the exact opposition of saturn and ur anus.
Nonsense.
Ah jeez Henry P not this uranus crap again…