From the University of Exeter
Arctic warming linked to fewer European and US cold weather extremes, new study shows
Climate change is unlikely to lead to more days of extreme cold, similar to those that gripped the USA in a deep freeze last winter, new research has shown.
The Arctic amplification phenomenon refers to the faster rate of warming in the Arctic compared to places further south. It is this phenomenon that has been linked to a spike in the number of severe cold spells experienced in recent years over Europe and North America.
However, new research by University of Exeter expert Dr James Screen has shown that Arctic amplification has actually reduced the risk of cold extremes across large swathes of the Northern Hemisphere.
The intriguing new study, published in leading scientific journal Nature Climate Change, questions growing fears that parts of Europe and North America will experience a greater number, or more severe, extreme cold days over the course of the next century.
Dr Screen, a Mathematics Research Fellow at the University of Exeter, said: “Autumn and winter days are becoming warmer on average, and less variable from day-to-day. Both factors reduce the chance of extremely cold days.”
The idea that there was a link between Arctic amplification and extreme weather conditions became prevalent during the severe winter weather that plagued large areas of the United States in January 2014, leading to major transport disruption, power cuts and crop damage.
In his study, Dr Screen examined detailed climate records to show that autumn and winter temperature variability has significantly decreased over the mid-to-high latitude Northern Hemisphere in recent decades.
He found that this has occurred mainly because northerly winds and associated cold days are warming more rapidly than southerly winds and warm days.
Dr Screen said: “Cold days tend to occur when the wind is blowing from the north, bringing Arctic air south into the mid-latitudes. Because the Arctic air is warming so rapidly these cold days are now less cold than they were in the past.”
Using the latest mathematical climate modelling, Dr Screen has also been able to show that these changes will continue in to the future, with projected future decreases in temperature variability in all seasons, except summer.
‘Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to-high-latitudes’, by James Screen, is published in Nature Climate Change online, on Sunday, June 15.
This research was financially supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council.
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Winter 2014 says “Hello”.
WTF!
Agreed Kenny.
1990 called, they want their meme back.
Nonsense, it depends on how the arctic warms. If it is uniformly warmer, in time and space, then yes. But if it is warmer because of repeatedly suffering warm spells, with big masses of warmer air comming from the South from time to time, then hell no, because this mass of warmer air comes to replace the cold air that was there in the beginning, and this cold air, guess where it is going, yes, to the South, causing cold spells wherever it goes.
Warmer arctic without increased mising with air from lower lattitudes = lower lattitudes suffer less cold spells. But warmer arctic due to increased mixing with air from lower lattitudes = lower lattitudes suffer more cold spells. So both things are possible with a warmer arctic, it depends on the cause of its temperature increase.
I am betting that Dr. James Screen did his undergraduate work under Dr. David Viner at the University of East Anglia, who was the one who said in 2000, “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
No. Villages everywhere want their arguing children back. When my three kids used to get into these “did not-did too” fights in the car I used to whack them with a fly swatter. Arm was too short to reach back there without it.
But surely, according to “Warmists”, AGW is the font of all extreme weather?!
I wonder if Carhartt® will take back my new winter coat?
@ur momisugly Bob Mount
It appears that the science is unsettling.
Haaa, Haaa, Haaa!
Didn’t these guys ever hear of an “air conditioner”?
Send warm Hawaiian air to a “dark place the sun don’t shine”
“..autumn and winter days…”
and voila!
heat is radiated into the dark and cold air produced!
Now, if you want to keep air in a “dark place the sun don’t shine” cold
don’t let it move. It will radiate for a while and then just “sit there”.
Of course, it violates the eco-religious dogma to even think such things!
This marble has only so much resources and,
since we’re smart as a sack of hammers,
we can’t possibly send our kids to anyplace else,
so everyone, use less, share, and decrease the surplus populaton!
Haaa, Haaa, Haaa,
what mar-roons with their gull-i-bull brainwashed followers!
Someday; they will run out of magic theories that will explain away the fact that they are totally
misguided and have no idea of what they are doing !
Do they know how foolish they look ?
Hey! they have to protect that fat Government pay check !
Isn’t air from a dark place the sun don’t shine also called a – fart?
http://emps.exeter.ac.uk/mathematics/staff/js546
According to daily HADCET 2010 had the 6th highest number of days below 0C and the 2nd highest below -5C.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2014/06/15/will-britain-enjoy-fewer-cold-days-thanks-to-global-warming-no/
The coming decade will be enough to knock this guy and his loony theory onto its arse. With a resounding thump.
Nylo says, June 16, 2014 at 9:27 am:
“Nonsense, it depends on how the arctic warms. If it is uniformly warmer, in time and space, then yes. But if it is warmer because of repeatedly suffering warm spells, with big masses of warmer air comming from the South from time to time, then hell no, because this mass of warmer air comes to replace the cold air that was there in the beginning, and this cold air, guess where it is going, yes, to the South, causing cold spells wherever it goes.
Warmer arctic without increased mising with air from lower lattitudes = lower lattitudes suffer less cold spells. But warmer arctic due to increased mixing with air from lower lattitudes = lower lattitudes suffer more cold spells. So both things are possible with a warmer arctic, it depends on the cause of its temperature increase.”
Riiight. So this (the above) is NOT nonsense, then, I presume …
Nothing has been shown. Something has been postulated. The background behind the hypothesis may or may not have merit, but it is a hypothesis none the less. The hypothesis can be used to make predictions. Let us see if the predictions are close to the reality. “Has been shown” is too much like “settled science” in my opinion. I have no opinion on this particular matter, but I am getting sick of hypotheses being anything more than hypotheses in the press and blogosphere.
Poor Dr. Screen. His new paper says the exact opposite of what the US 2014 NCA just said, about which Obama said the science was settled. Even had a picture of Chicago’ 2011 blizzard to prove winters are getting harsher because of climate change, not milder.
How unsettling to settled science.
Yet the IPCC et al told us the opposite.
Winter northern hemisphere snow extent has been Winter snow extent trending up since 1967.
Another modeled result?
Winter northern hemisphere snow extent has been
Winter snow extenttrending up since 1967.This ASSumes we continue to warm. Unfortunately using a short period of time proves nothing except in a short warming period things get nicer.
You’ve got to love these guys, “cold days occur when the wind is blowing from the north, bringing Arctic air south….”
I agree with you entirely. They told us to expect milder NH winters.
Ooops, then they said we should expect colder winters due to CAGW.
Oooops, now they tell us to expect less extreme winters.
Next they will tell us to expect more extreme winters due to CAGW. This is not a science, it is garbage. Helped along by the useful idiots.
Awesome, more computer games!
These buffoons will still be claiming the climate is warming when the next tranche of glaciers roll over their labs.