The National Climate Assessment – 2014 (NCA) is a masterpiece of marketing that shows for the first time the full capabilities of the Obama Administration to spin a scientific topic as they see fit, without regard to the underlying facts. With hundreds of pages written by hundreds of captive scientists and marketing specialists, the administration presents their case for extreme climate alarm. This is a rebuttal drafted by 14 independent meteorology and climatology experts.
As independent scientists, we know that apparent evidence of “Climate Change,” however scary, is not proof of anything. Science derives its objectivity from robust logic and honest evidence repeatedly tested by all knowledgeable scientists, not just those paid to support the administration’s version of “Global Warming,” “Climate Change,” “Climate Disruption,” or whatever their marketing specialists call it today.
We are asked to believe that humans are drastically changing the earth’s climate by burning fossil fuels. The problem with their theory is very simple: It is NOT true.
Here we address the administration’s basic thesis and the essential evidence that they claim support extreme concern.
The theory of ‘Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming’ (CAGW) is based on a string of inferences that begins with the assumptions that carbon dioxide is a ‘greenhouse gas’ and that we are slowly driving up the atmospheric concentration by burning fossil fuels. It is therefore claimed as self-evident that the Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) has already risen significantly and will continue to do so. Higher GAST is then presumed to lead to all sorts of negative consequences, especially Extreme Weather. They promote their ‘Climate Models’ as a reliable way to predict the future climate. But these models dramatically fail basic verification tests. Nowhere do they admit to these well-known failures. Instead, we are led to believe that their climate models are close to perfection.
This document is structured around a “fact-check,” where we quote a number of the government’s key claims in the NCA and show each to be invalid. The first three claims involve their three crucial scientific arguments (Three Lines of Evidence or 3 LoE), which, if valid, would satisfy a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for making their case. But each is easily shown to be false; and because each is crucial, their entire theory collapses. That means that all of the overblown “Climate Disruption” evidence that they mention, whether true or not, cannot be tied back to man’s burning of fossil fuels. Hence, efforts to reduce or eliminate Extreme Weather by reducing the burning of fossil fuels are completely nonsensical.
NCA CLAIM #1: “First ‘Line of Evidence’ (LoE) – Fundamental Understanding of GH Gases”
“The conclusion that human influences are the primary driver of recent climate change is based on multiple lines of independent evidence. The first line of evidence is our fundamental understanding of how certain gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in these gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate.” (NCA, Page 23)
RESPONSE: Many scientists have provided ample evidence that the government’s finding, used by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is grossly flawed. In its Endangerment Finding, EPA claimed with 90-99% certainty that observed warming in the latter half of the twentieth century resulted from human activity. Using the most credible empirical data available, it is relatively straightforward to soundly reject each of EPA’s Three LoE. This U.S. Supreme Court Amicus brief contains the details: http://sblog.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/GW-Amicus-2013-05-23-Br-of-Amici-Curiae-Scientists-ISO-Petitions-fo…2.pdf
EPA’s Greenhouse Gas ‘Hot Spot’ theory is that in the tropics, the mid-troposphere must warm faster than the lower troposphere, and the lower troposphere must warm faster than the surface, all due to rising CO2 concentrations. However, this is totally at odds with multiple robust, consistent, independently-derived empirical datasets, all showing no statistically significant positive (or negative) trend in temperature and thus, no difference in trend slope by altitude. Therefore, EPA’s theory as to how CO2 impacts GAST must be rejected. Below is a graphical comparison of their Hot Spot theory versus reality, where reds denote warming and blues, cooling. Clearly, the government’s understanding of how CO2 gas traps heat is fundamentally flawed.
Models (top) vs. Measured Temperatures Changes (bottom)
NCA CLAIM #2: “Second LoE – Unusual Warming in recent decades”
“The second line of evidence is from reconstructions of past climates using evidence such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. These show that global surface temperatures over the last several decades are clearly unusual, with the last decade (2000-2009) warmer than any time in at least the last 1,300 years and perhaps much longer.” (NCA, Page 23)
RESPONSE: “Global Warming” has not been global and has not set regional records where warming has occurred. For example, over the last fifty years, while the Arctic has warmed, the tropical oceans had a flat trend (see e.g. NOAA Buoy Data: NINO 3.4, Degrees C, available at http://www.cpc.ncep. noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst3b.nino.mth.81-10.ascii,) and the Antarctic cooled slightly.
The most significant warming during this period occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, north of the tropics but that ceased over the last 15 years or more. Also, as the figure below shows, over the last 130 years the decade of the 1930’s still has the most U.S. State High Temperatures records. And, over the past 50 years, there were more new State Record Lows set than Record Highs. In fact, roughly 70% of the current State Record Highs were set prior to 1940.
See NOAA National Climatic Data Ctr., State Climate Extremes Committee, Records, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records (last visited 12/15/ 2013)
If the observed warming over the last half century can anywhere be claimed to be unusual, it would have to be where it was greatest – in the Arctic. Both satellite and surface station data show a warming of about two degrees Celsius since the 1970’s. But the surface station data (see the Figure below) show that warming in context. Recent warming was very similar to the previous warming from 1900 to 1940, reaching virtually the same peak.
This refutes the government claim that recent warming (which occurred when man-made CO2 was rising) was notably different from an era when man-made CO2 was not claimed to be a factor.
It also points out an essential feature of most credible thermometer records that cover many decades. Our climate is highly cyclical, driven in fact by ocean and solar cycles, not carbon dioxide.
Using only the upward trend of the most recent half cycle to suggest relentless warming is very deceptive.
NCA CLAIM #3: Third LoE – “The Climate Models”
The third line of evidence comes from using climate models to simulate the climate of the past century, separating the human and natural factors that influence climate. (NCA, Page 24)
RESPONSE: The Administration relied upon Climate Models, all predicated on the GHG Hot Spot Theory, that all fail standard model validation and forecast reliability tests.
These Climate Models are simulations of reality and far from exact solutions of the fundamental physics. The models all forecast rising temperatures beyond 2000 although the GAST trend has recently been flat. See the figure below. This is not surprising because EPA never carried out any published forecast reliability tests. The government’s hugely expensive climate models are monumental failures.
NCA CLAIM #4: “Extreme Weather – Temperatures”
“global temperatures are still on the rise and are expected to rise further.” (NCA, Page 8)
“The most recent decade was the nation’s and the world’s hottest on record, and 2012 was the hottest year on record in the continental United States. All U.S. regions have experienced warming in recent decades, but the extent of warming has not been uniform. (NCA, Page 8)
RESPONSE: As mentioned in the response to CLAIM #2, most of the warming in the second half of the 20th century occurred north of the tropics. But as shown below, this warming stopped over 17 years ago. Furthermore, the Hadley Centre (upon which the government and the UN IPCC heavily relied) recently announced a forecast that the GAST trend line will likely remain flat for another five years. See Decadal forecast, Met Office, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc (last visited Dec. 15, 2013).
As for claims about record setting U.S. temperatures, please see our response to CLAIM #2 above.
See National Space Sci. & Tech.Ctr., North of 20 North Temperature Anomalies UAH Satellite Data: Lower Troposphere Degrees C, available at http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/ t2lt/uahncdc.lt (last visited May 17, 2013).
The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) was critical of the draft National Climate Assessment, saying that “An overly narrow focus can encourage one-sided solutions, for instance by giving an impression that reducing greenhouse gas emissions alone will solve all of the major environmental concerns discussed in this report.” The NAS has also criticized “the lack of explicit discussion about the uncertainties associated with the regional model projections,” saying that “Decision makers need a clear understanding of these uncertainties in order to fairly evaluate the actual utility of using these projections as a basis for planning decisions.”
NCA CLAIM #5
“Extreme Weather – Hurricanes”
“The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s.” (NCA, Page 20)
“Extreme Weather – “Droughts and Floods”
“both extreme wetness and extreme dryness are projected to increase in many areas.” (NCA, Page 33)
RESPONSE: According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,) there is “high agreement” among leading experts that long-term trends in weather disasters are not attributable to our use of fossil fuels.
Hurricanes have not increased in the United States in frequency, intensity, or normalized damage since at least 1900. Currently, the U.S. is enjoying a period of over eight years without a Category 3 or stronger hurricane making landfall. Government data also indicate no association between use of fossil fuels and tornado activity.
The data on droughts paint a similar picture. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that “Climate change was not a significant part” of the recent drought in Texas. And the IPCC found that “in some regions, droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, for example, central North America ….” The IPCC also states there is “low confidence” in any climate-related trends for flood magnitude or frequency on a global scale.
Still More NCA CLAIMS
RESPONSE: All of the other government claims worth discussing have been answered effectively in other commentaries. These include those related to ocean and lake ice levels, sea levels, and ocean alkalinity. Detailed rebuttals of such government claims can be found in reports available from CATO, CEI, Climate Depot, Heritage, ICECAP, TWTW, and WUWT.
SUMMARY
The Obama Administration’s National Climate Assessment begins with probably their most preposterous claims:
“Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present.” (NCA, Page 1)
“Evidence for climate change abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans.” (NCA, Page 7)
“There is still time to act to limit the amount of change and the extent of damaging impacts” (NCA, Page 2)
RESPONSE: This is pure rhetorical nonsense born of a cynical attempt to exploit short term memories and/or little knowledge of the Earth’s climate history and climate processes.
Our climate is constantly changing for perfectly natural reasons that have nothing to do with carbon dioxide.
With the Earth’s vast oceans and atmosphere never in complete equilibrium, our climate will always be changing on time scales from weeks to months to years to decades to centuries and beyond. With a star varying cyclically as our heat source and with an enormous planet like Jupiter tugging on our orbit around the Sun, dramatic climate changes are expected to occur. (See pages 39-50 in USCA, Case #09-1322, Document #1312291, Filed: 06/08/2011.) However, none of these dramatic climate changes have any connection to our use of fossil fuels.
Yet the Obama Administration insists on building a House of Cards predicated on their Three Lines of Evidence as discussed in CLAIMS 1, 2, and 3 above. With all three of their Lines of Evidence shown to be invalid, their entire House of Cards collapses. For example, if increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations do not yield higher GAST, the claimed CO2 connection to higher sea levels is lost.
What about their frequent claims that nearly all scientists agree with their analysis findings? By ignoring and even denouncing growing criticism, they have lost the benefit of crucial scientific debates which are critical to keeping their analyses honest and objective. In fact, as documented above in response to Claims 4 and 5, they are even disregarding their usual allies, the UN IPCC and US National Academy of Sciences, both of whom have been dialing back apocalyptic claims, not amplifying them due at least in part to such critical feedback.
Bottom-Line: This NCA is so grossly flawed it should play no role in U.S. Energy Policy Analyses and CO2 regulatory processes. As this rebuttal makes clear, the NCA provides no scientific basis whatsoever for regulating CO2 emissions.
NCA REBUTTAL AUTHORS/REVIEWERS
Joseph S. D’Aleo
Certified Consultant Meteorologist,
American Meteorological Society Fellow
M.S., Meteorology, University of Wisconsin
B.S., Meteorology (cum laude), University of Wisconsin
Dr. Harold H. Doiron
Retired VP, Engineering Analysis and Test Division, InDyne, Inc.
Ex-NASA JSC, Aerospace Consultant
B.S. Physics, University of Louisiana – Lafayette
M.S., PhD. Mechanical Engineering, University of Houston
Dr. Don J. Easterbrook
Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington University
Ph.D., Geology, University of Washington, Seattle
M.S., Geology, University of Washington, Seattle
B.S., Geology, University of Washington, Seattle
Dr. Theodore R. Eck
Ph.D., Economics, Mich. State U.; M.A, Economics, U. of Michigan
Fulbright Professor of International Economics
Former Chief Economist of Amoco Corp. and Exxon Venezuela
Advisory Board of the Gas Technology Institute and Energy Intelligence Group
Dr. Neil Frank
B.S., Chemistry, Southwestern College
M.S., Ph.D. Meteorology, Florida State
Former Director of the National Hurricane Center
Dr. Gordon J. Fulks
Ph.D., Physics, University of Chicago
M.S., Physics, University of Chicago
B.S., Physics, University of Chicago
Dr. William M. Gray
Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
Ph.D., Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago
M.S., Meteorology, University of Chicago
B.S., Geography, George Washington University
Art Horn
B.Sc. Meteorology Lyndon State College
Teaches Meteorology/Climatology at Tunxis Community College
TV Meteorologist 25 years, lecturer, expert witness, radio broadcaster
Dr. Thomas P. Sheahen
Ph.D., Physics, M.I.T.
B.S., Physics, M.I.T.
Dr. S. Fred Singer
Fellow AAAS, APS, AGU
Prof Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, U of VA
Ph. D., Physics, Princeton University
BEE, Ohio State University
Dr. Anthony R. Lupo
IPCC Expert Reviewer
Professor, Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri
Ph.D., Atmospheric Science, Purdue University
M.S., Atmospheric Science, Purdue University
Dr. Madhav Khandekar
Retired Scientist, Environment Canada
Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change Documents
George Taylor
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
President Applied Climate Services
Two time President of the American Association of State Climatologists
B.A. Mathematics, University of California
M.S. Meteorology University of Utah
Dr. James P. Wallace III
Jim Wallace & Associates, LLC
Ph.D., Economics, Minor in Engineering, Brown University
M.S., Mechanical Engineering, Brown University
B.S., Aeronautical Engineering, Brown University
Dr. George T. Wolff
Former Chair EPA’s Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee
Ph.D., Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University
M.S., Meteorology, New York University
B.S., Chemical Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology
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Er, I should mention that my soma reference is from Brave New World – I didn’t realize there actually was such a substance!
This is a rebuttal drafted by 14 independent meteorology and climatology experts.
————
Now that obama has weaponised the IRS, I predict 14 audits in the offing.
The Committee Members who make up the NCADAC, which oversees the NCA, make for interesting reading.
A collection of Enviros, scientists relying on Fed grants, consultants, lawyers and financiers all making money out of alarmism, and others on the Fed payroll.
Any independent voices? Don’t be silly.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/05/19/fed-climate-committee-filled-with-grant-hungry-placemen/
Excellent statement/rebuttal that is welcomed and necessary. And to all those that would nit pick anyone’s efforts to set the AGW record straight I suggest you put your efforts into writing something better rather than spout the “if it’s not perfect it only hurts our cause” meme. Thankfully someone(s) with credibility and expertise has the balls to go on record.
Is the Antarctic cooling or is it losing ice?
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27465050
Antarctica is now losing about 160 billion tonnes of ice a year to the ocean – twice as much as when the continent was last surveyed.
The new assessment comes from Europe’s Cryosat spacecraft, which has a radar instrument specifically designed to measure the shape of the ice sheet.
Is it or isn’t it?
Only its’ hairdresser knows…
“If you like your climate, you can keep your climate.”
;>P
Paul Homewood says:
May 19, 2014 at 10:23 am
Precisely. We are attacking the source of their children’s food, private schools and future privileges. It is no wonder to me that they call us names and attempt to paint us as evil. They wish us far worse than that.
They are great in number and have the ear of the media combines, politicians and the fearful. We have empirical evidence a couple of blogs and some loose cannons. It doesn’t bode well. Some days even ‘good’ news doesn’t cheer me.
==============================================================
A typo. Shouldn’t he be set off as the others are?
[typo fixed -mod]
I reckon though 97% of scientists agree on the problem of Climate Change…you can still dig up a few of the 3% who are still convinced to come up with some sort of rebuttal. It is STILL though a very minority response and opinion.
“All U.S. regions have experienced warming in recent decades, but the extent of warming has not been uniform. (NCA, Page 8)”
This statement in the NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT is wrong according to the NCDC/NOAA own records
ANNUAL US temperatures are declining at (-0.36 F/DECADE) since 1998. So where is this global warming threat? There are regional issues but these are not global events.
Winter temperatures in United States have been declining now for 17 years or since 1998 at about -1.78F/ decade according to NCDC/NOAA, CLIMATE AT A GLANCE data. In United States, 8 out 12 months of the year are cooling. Winters, spring [2months] and fall are all cooling while only 3 months, namely March, June and July are still warming.
Not only have winters been getting cooler since 1998 in Contiguous US [48 states] and Canada, but winters have been getting colder for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and for the Globe as a whole. Canada just had its 24 th coldest winter in seven decades and some regions were 2 degrees C below normal. .. The winter temperatures in United States were colder in every region except the West and the long term trend since 1998 is that winters are getting colder. Overall, for United States the past winter was the 34th coldest since 1895
)
Oh come on!
It’s a howl man!! I couldn’t stop laughing!
Anybody reading this tosh; “Obama Administration’s National Climate Assessment ” immediately is drawn to the outrageous and constant meme – hyperbole.
#A general rule of thumb, with this type of political clima-gloop – read the headers and punchlines and then think, that, the opposite. outcome, function or mechanism: is the reality.
Reblogged this on Head Space and commented:
It’s the Agenda. … as usual
Well, maybe if the Republicans can win the Senate in the mid term elections, they can muster enough gumption to defund the EPA and halt this administration in their tracks. After all, Harry Reid in his short sightedness, has killed the ability to filibuster, so be careful what you ask for it, it might come back in spades!
PeterinMD says:
May 20, 2014 at 4:55 am
Keep in mind, without the filibuster the “veto” has been inflated as well. All just one step closer to Caesar.
Richard Fox says:
May 19, 2014 at 2:04 pm
As long as the “consensus” can decide that they are “non-persons” (as Orwell put it) with the collusion of media, popular culture, government authority the report is mitigated.
We are battling over a theory in climate science that people can’t solidly connect to, especially, since the effects have always been projected in the distant future. This latest attempt by Obama, realizes that fact and attempts to connect it to right here and now extreme weather/climate (that has 0 actual correlation to increasing CO2).
This is what is missing:
The proven law of photosynthesis and massive positive contributions that increasing CO2 is irrefutably having……..right here and right now. The booming biosphere, vegetative health and record, bin busting crop yields and world food production are all things people can understand and relate to. We ALL learned about photosynthesis in elementary school. We all know about the key role that CO2 plays.
Everybody can relate to this vs complicated theories using mathematical equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere and the fact that, we need to rely on the experts, climate scientists, 97% who supposedly agree to guide us.
Photosynthesis:
CARBON DIOXIDE + water + light =SUGAR +OXYGEN
or as stated here:
“six molecules of water plus six molecules of carbon dioxide produce one molecule of sugar plus six molecules of oxygen”
http://www2.estrellamountain.edu/faculty/farabee/biobk/biobookps.html
Plants need some minerals from the soil(fertilizer) too but that doesn’t negate the easy to understand process.
Everyone, everywhere can see how photosynthesis works everyday by just looking around them. They can solidly connect to the great benefits of increasing CO2 all around them.
I suggest getting a group of plant experts together to explain plant science and the incredible benefits that increasing CO2 is having on our planet which are being “swept under the rug” by, ironically, the ones calling us the deniers.
Agronomists, botanists, plant science authorities. All they need to do is tell the truth.
Craig Idso would be the ideal man to be in charge.
This is not a tactical plan to win a battle. It’s just about time for people to understand what CO2 is and what it does for life on this planet.
CO2=pollution brainwashed into heads/society is as silly as teaching that the sun revolves around the earth. However, the difference is that scientists/people who thought the earth was the center of the universe thousands of years ago, didn’t know any better.
Today, we understand enough about CO2 and everything about the law of photosynthesis to be 100% certain that its’ a beneficial gas and know better than to perpetrate a brainwash on people that states otherwise.
Time to decondition this fraudulent fact out of brains.
Time to decondition this fraudulent fact out of brains.
Deprogram is probably a better word.
The “captive scientists” theory is even more applicable to chemicals-to-man evolution and naturalism in general.
So if the 97% number is right, should we expect to hear a similar response from 450 warmist scientists?
Thought not.
If these same scientists were supporting CAGW, their document would be trumpeted far and wide by every media outlet imaginable. I googled an exact quote from the document and google produces 2 hits. WUWT and Archive.Today.
It’s incredible the degree to which the U.S. “press” controls the narrative in support of the Progressive cause.
This is interesting – http://www.studentnewsdaily.com/daily-news-article/skeptical-scientists-debunk-white-house-global-warming-report/
A website for students and teachers citing the report above. We can only hope that some students and teachers use it.
The last question for students – 7. Numerous results come up in an internet search for “White House global warming report.” However, a search for “scientists refute White House global warming report” results in 2 news outlet reports as of May 19. Why do you think the media is not reporting that reputable experts in the field disagree with the NCA and wrote a report refuting the NCA findings?
What about the iconic polar bear? He’s still floating away on that lil’ iceberg, so fuzzy and cuddly and sad! Funny how that one just faded into obscurity.
Well while fully supportive of the efforts of this eminently qualified group of scientists, I’m a bit dismayed by some of what they write in their rebuttal; to whit :-
“””””……“The conclusion that human influences are the primary driver of recent climate change is based on multiple lines of independent evidence. The first line of evidence is our fundamental understanding of how certain gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in these gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate.” (NCA, Page 23)…..”””””
“””””…..how certain gases trap heat……””””””
Now this is a part of the first line of evidence; Fundamental understanding of GH gases.
Apparently we lack a fundamental understanding of GH gases.
GH gases DO NOT trap “heat”. Well forget the bottom line, that so far, nobody has succeeded in trapping “heat”; at least not permanently; we can at best delay its dissipation, since ALL gases propagate “heat” via conduction, and or convection; so GH gases are in no way different from any other gases, in that regard.
Where GH gases differ from other NON GH gases, is that they capture (call it trap if you want) LONG WAVE ELECTRO-MAGNETIC RADIANT ENERGY in the thermal emission spectrum of the earth.
The effect that is claimed to be the cause of all this donnybrook, is the selective absorption of long wavelength thermal EM radiation that is trying to escape from earth, thereby limiting the Temperature rise.
HEAT CANNOT ESCAPE FROM THE EARTH (in any significant amount). ONLY EM radiant energy can escape.
Well only EM radiant energy can come here (in any significant amount.) “HEAT” can’t come here.
So if we are going to make this debate “scientific”, we need to be pedantic about what we assert.
Well the good news is that “the other side” also don’t know the difference between EM radiant energy, and “HEAT” either.
Here on earth; “heat” is processed by GHGs just the same as any other gas; the molecules collide with each other and interchange kinetic energies between them, which is all that “heat is. There are no appreciable electromagnetic fields involved in gas molecules colliding with each other.
The NCA is as patent an example of fraud and mendacity as has ever been witnessed in the history of the world. Its purveyors are criminals who deserve the severest punishment, as do any government functionaries who would act upon its mandates.