Guest essay by Fred F. Mueller
On April 16th, 2014, a few quite remarkable statements were delivered during a discussion event at the premises of SMA Solar Technology AG, a leading German producer of photovoltaic panels and systems:
“The truth is that the Energy U-Turn (“Energiewende”, the German scheme aimed at pushing the “renewable” share of electricity production to 80 % by 2050) is about to fail”
“The truth is that under all aspects, we have underestimated the complexity of the “Energiewende”
“The noble aspiration of a decentralized energy supply, of self-sufficiency! This is of course utter madness”
“Anyway, most other countries in Europe think we are crazy”
Had this been one of the small albeit growing number of German “sceptics” casting doubt upon the XXL-sized politico-economical scam that has cost the German populace more than € 500 billion since its inception in 2000, it would not have gotten more than a footnote in the local press, crammed somewhere in between “horoscope” and “lost and found”. In fact, the media actually tried to keep a lid on the facts by giving them as little coverage as possible.
But the man at the speaker’s desk was Sigmar Gabriel, acting vice-chancellor of the German government, Secretary of Commerce with responsibility for the said „Energiewende” and chairman of the German social democrats (SPD), the second-largest political force in the country. Since December 2013, he is in charge of taming the runaway costs and growing security of supply risks that are unmasking the financial and technical nightmare of this ill-conceived project. In the past few months, he seems to have gotten some unpleasant insights causing him to admit the above-mentioned inconvenient truths when he was pushed too far by a number of aggressive lobbyists of the “renewable energy” sector. Gabriel, famous for his irascible temper that once already resulted in a heated verbal exchange with a top-dog TV journalist live on air, appears to have become quite candid when he vented his anger during the debate.
He must have realized his own political fate is in jeopardy because the task he has been assigned has conducted him into a situation that will inevitably result in failure. With respect to electric energy generation, Germany has painted itself into a corner. Since the introduction of the “Renewable Energy” law (EEG) in 2000 aimed at replacing coal and gas-fired as well as nuclear power generation by so-called renewable energy sources, the household price for electricity has jumped by more than 200 %. German customers now pay the second-highest electricity prices in Europe. At the same time, the task of stabilizing the grid against the massive erratic influx from solar and wind power plants that produce without regard for actual need has pushed the operators to their limits. Now already, with a combined share of just some 13 % of total electricity production, their unreliable input is massively imperiling the stability of the grid.
Conventional power plants – the most important units able to compensate these detrimental effects – are being pushed out of the market and shuttered at increasing rates. At the same time, Germany’s CO2 output has not diminished because coal-fired units have had to take over from closed nuclear plants. Costs are set to rise further on a ballistic path while security of supply is in free fall. At the same time, Gabriel is subjected to intense pressure from a number of factions of the “renewable” energy sector asking for ever greater slices of a cake that cannot be financed much longer. Together with inconvenient truths about feasibility limits given to him by his technical staff, this pressure seems to have risen to a level that pushed him to lecture his harassers when their clamors transgressed his tolerance limit.
This rare incident where a leading politician loses control of his words to such a degree shows that the “crash boom bang” path the German way of mishandling energy policies has indeed reached a threshold where said politicians feel cornered and unable to uphold their usual “muddling through” approach. Long-ignored financial and technical rules re-emerge and will force the German political class to abandon their “renewable” energy strategy centering on solar and wind power generation. Since the only low CO2 alternative – nuclear power – has been deviled by all political parties and the media beyond any chance of short-term oblivion, Germany will soon have to revert to coal for its power needs. And that in turn implies the country will have to abandon all aspirations to lower its CO2 emissions. German politicians might soon find out that demonizing CO2 is becoming a speedy path to ruining their career. And given the importance of the country within Europe and the pioneering role it claimed in the international crusade against climate change by limiting CO2 emissions, this might well herald the start of a paradigm shift of epochal dimensions in the whole climate change debate.
Original TV clips (in German):
http://www.1730live.de/sigmar-gabriel-nimmt-in-kassel-stellung-zur-energiewende/
http://www.hr-online.de/website/archiv/hessenschau/hessenschau.jsp?t=20140417&type=v
Eddi Rebel says:
April 28, 2014 at 8:49 am
“I admire Germany and most of the Germans. Really. Greatest Tech-nation of the world (next to Japan) But when it comes to political or ideological stuff they are on the level of a hilltribe.”
The Allied made sure to keep Goebbels’ propaganda broadcaster network intact, only changed the slogans. Today these broadcasters are called ARD and ZDF; population gets forced to pay the monstrosities. They do their very best to promulgate the victor’s history to this day.
At least up to the re unification in 1990 reporting about war crimes of the Allied was prohibited for all German media, under a SHAEF military law. (SHAEF = Supreme Headquartes of the Allied Expeditionary Forces)
As a consequence generations of Germans have been brainwashed into obedient slaves of the American Empire.
Politics meets physics. Politics looses.
“As a consequence generations of Germans have been brainwashed into obedient slaves of the American Empire.”
There is no need for that. Being obedient slaves to stupidity is more than enough.
to DirkH:
You said : Excess wind / solar power energy is sold by Germany to Switzerland and Austria at spot market prices and used by them to pump water uphill in their significant pumped hydro systems. In extreme cases the spot market price goes negative; takers are paid to take the energy. Later they can sell the electricity generated in the pumped hydro system back to Germany at high prices. This is one of the “unintended consequences”.
In fact, this excess German energy is ruining the market for neighbouring pumped storage producers, because solar peaks are occurring around noon when they would normally earn their money. In Switzerland, a leading pumped storage provider had to scrap plans to increase his capacity, while Poland and the Czech Republic are erecting special installations at their borders to fend off this unwanted energ influx overloading their grids.
Fred, thanks very much for your reply and for the links. Google Translate is doing a reasonably good job of rendering Wirschafts Woche article in comprehensible English. Could you elaborate on the degree of attention given to Sigmar Gabriel’s remarks at the SMA Solar Technology event? How much of a “splash” did his comments made in Germany? And in general, what’s your most objective possible analysis of the politics of all this within Germany?
The other night, I was trying to tell someone that the German Greens are even crazier than the American greens, and he refused to believe it. But Germany has more than two parties. I know the Greens have deftly wielded influence as the “swing” party. How is that going lately?
@Ric Werme
“The truth is that in all fields we under-estimated the complexity of the Energiewende.”
NO, THEY DID NOT!
There was no ‘underestimate’ involved. Grid engineers knew what was going to happen, and proved it mathematically. They were ignored.
This should have been a speech of apology to the few engineers who had integrity, and who were probably sacked as a result…
Marcus Aurelius: “The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”
“Jeff L says:
April 27, 2014 at 6:31 pm
“German politicians might soon find out that demonizing CO2 is becoming a speedy path to ruining their career.”
——————————–
A fascinating insight really – It is a clear case of blind faith – they really thought this was possible – to run their country on renewables. There was no analysis , just blind faith. And now it is all crumbling before their eyes , as is their political futures.
I feel this is also the case of your average alarmist – no analysis , just blind faith that CO2 is going to cause catastrophic warming.”
Fascinating lack of insight in the comments above.
Substitute the expression “nuclear power” for “renewables”, add the word “safely” after “country”, replace the word “alarmist” with “Alfred E. Neuman” (of ‘What, me worry?’ fame), and replace what follows “blind faith that” with “every national government will be able to manage nuclear energy generation without making the planet uninhabitable for millenia to come”.
Real leaders lead from the front. Germany has shown the world real leadership on the nuclear power issue. If they have to return to coal fired plants for the time being, that’s a setback, not a defeat. Coal and CO2, as is normally expounded ad nauseam here, doesn’t pose a fatal and immediate threat to humanity. Nuclear incompetence does, as has been amply demonstrated. Shall we talk about the billions the US has squandered on its nuclear waste disposal plans?
It takes a big man to admit he’s wrong.
Alas, most climate “scientists” look up to Liliputians.
Thanks for the excellent run down on the nuclear conspiracy behind the CAGW paradigm Pat. For some reason the crowd here at WUWT is in total denial on the fact. Political tone deafness seems to be a trait among those whose focus is the hard sciences.
Every bit of legislation that has been proposed over the years has had the primary purpose of fostering the viability of nuclear energy. ‘Renewables’ have never been seriously intended as anything but window dressing for the new generation of nuclear power plants.
Leave it to scientists to be so gullible as to swallow political propaganda uncritically.
1. Teach Obama to realize that what he says is “carbon” is CO2.
2. Teach all his advisers the same.
3. Have them read a well translated version of Sigmar Gabriel’s speach.
4. Good luck with #s 1. 2. & 3.
Well, za Chermans love to rally behind za pointless causes ja?
What would Germany be today without two world wars and the green madness?
Oops! About time someone spoke the truth, loudly and clearly
To Jake J.
Hope this reply will make it through the filter. As already explained in the article, the media tried to keep a lid on the event by banning excerpts to “local news”. Not much of a reaction from the general public. Grid specialists are becoming increasingly alarmed, but who pays attention to them as long as the mainstream media claim otherwise? It might well take some more years before something breaks down in a really spectacular way.
I think Gabriel’s remarks are largely an “accident” owed to his temper. He and the rest of the political class will continue sticking to their “muddling through” policy. The importance lies in the fact that he as a leading representative admitted to the impossibility of continuing on the current path. But given the current inertia of the general populace, this might well go on for some time. My best guess is that a crash is 2-5 years away.
With respect to the Greens, they have lost heavily during the last elections, but don’t seem to have learned from it and continue unabated. Their political program has remained largely as it was before. Wait and see…
Fred
It’s easier to fool the people than prove the people has been fooled.
The word “renewables” tells me the only thing I need to know, a prank scheme based on an illusion. In science Perpetual motion does not exist. The energy comes from the sun and once it has been used it simply can not be reused again.
The only positive about it is that the words tell me that a fool is talking and it’s time to move on.
The energy comes from the sun and once it has been used it simply can not be reused again.
There are arguments to make against renewables, but not that one.
Fred Mueller, thanks for your reply. Perhaps this question is well beyond the scope of your original posting, but I’d be interested in any articles about the grid’s limitations with respect to non-dispatchable power. I understand the obvious reality that wind is unpredictable, but I really don’t know — literally, not figuratively or rhetorically speaking — what implications this carries for the grid, and how the grid would need to be altered to deal with it.
Similarly, I’d think that the grid would be more able to handle solar, because I would expect less immediate variation. But I wouldn’t make a big bet on that expectation, and in any case would be interested in technical analysis (preferably in English, if available) about the interaction between the grid and all forms of non-dispatchable power.
And, again, I fully realize that I might have raised an issue that’s beyond the scope of your knowledge. Thanks very much for your attention and your responses. I really liked your article. It has definitely gotten me thinking about some issues I really hadn’t considered.
M Simon says:
April 28, 2014 at 12:22 pm
“There is no need for that. Being obedient slaves to stupidity is more than enough.”
Andy says:
April 28, 2014 at 7:25 pm
“Well, za Chermans love to rally behind za pointless causes ja?
What would Germany be today without two world wars and the green madness?”
I see that both of you have swallowed the victor’s history wholesale as well.
Both world wars had the intention of destroying Germany because Germany was an economic threat to the UK empire (and to the fledgling American empire, of course). Today, historians start to admit that Germany did not cause WW I. The Versailles treaty was rammed down Germany’s throat to plunder the country wholesale and break its back. Germany was forced to sign it.
Where would Germany now be had the Anglosaxons not destroyed it successfully? Well, something’s gotta give on the way to Empire.
aletho says:
April 28, 2014 at 5:48 pm
“Thanks for the excellent run down on the nuclear conspiracy behind the CAGW paradigm Pat. For some reason the crowd here at WUWT is in total denial on the fact. Political tone deafness seems to be a trait among those whose focus is the hard sciences.”
Well I see you are uninformed and clueless about energy. Here’s a warmist scientist for you, detailing the problems of renewables. It might help you learn something.
http://www.withouthotair.com/
Jake J says:
April 29, 2014 at 2:06 am
“Similarly, I’d think that the grid would be more able to handle solar, because I would expect less immediate variation.”
Not necessarily. The so called “Cumulus effect” leads to vertical drop offs and restarts of solar power output – even more vicious than the power ramps of wind power, which happen with the 3rd power of wind speed. Picture a field of cumulus clouds moving across a blue sky, shadowing solar cell fields as they move.
There’s an important thing to say about Gabriel, he was very well informed about this from the start. He was not taken by surprise, he knew and told already in 2009 that renewable would not allow to shut down nuclear, and coal would be needed as backup :
See http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5064
Back then he claimed that the emissions trading scheme would magically make the CO2 disappear. It’s hard to think he believed that part of what he was saying.
To Jake J.
Well, you’re quite right with your guess, and power production experts here are becoming ever more alarmed about these threats. Grid stability is increasingly in jeopardy. I have written quite some articles about these topics, but unfortunately, they are all in German. wattsupwiththat is an AGW and CO2/ climate issues centred blog for an American/ international public, and the US grid and power supply system is certainly quite different from the European one, so I didn’t even think of bothering Americans with such tech details. Here, I only focus on such aspects that are more or less directly impacting CO2/ AGW issues. If you are interested, you might search for some of my tech pieces at http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/, but you would have to translate them.
One additional info: Solar is bad for the grid too, but won’t grow much further, Germany is largely betting on wind.
Fred
Fred, thanks for the reply. I think I will have to search for articles in English. It is one thing to rely on a mostly-accurate translation of a magazine article, but another thing to rely on a mostly-accurate translation of a technical article. I doubt that my high school German would help very much.
The reason I begin with a belief that solar wouldn’t be bad for the grid is that I perceive it to be a lot more predictable and stable in its output. But I am quite open minded in either direction. This is not to endorse solar in Germany. In fact, my attitude is the other way, because of the latitudes. Whoever decided to commit a country lying between 48 degrees and 52 degrees north to solar was an innumerate zealot. I have always believed solar’s best application for power generation to be in very sunny places at latitudes beginning with a “3” or lower.
Thanks again for your help. I will look forward to anything you contribute in the future about the situation in Germany.
To Jake J.
one hint: there is an excellent database on electric power production in Germany and Austria (in English) available on the following website: http://www.transparency.eex.com/en/
You can retrieve quarterly-hour data on conventional, solar and wind production over the last four years or so. High quality material for your own research, it even includes data on forecast and actual production (which impacts on grid stability).
Hope you and maybe some other readers find it useful.
Fred