From the National Science Foundation Press Release 14-032
Climate of Genghis Khan’s ancient time extends long shadow over Asia of today
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Current drought in Mongolia could have serious consequences
View of the modern-day Orkhon Valley near Karakorum, the ancient Mongol capital.
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March 10, 2014
Climate was very much on Genghis Khan’s side as he expanded his Mongol Empire across northeastern Asia.
That link between Mongolia’s climate and its human history echoes down the centuries, according to findings reported in this week’s issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
But climate may no longer be the boon it was during the latter, wetter part of Genghis Khan’s reign. The early years were marked by drought.
Mongolia’s current drought conditions could have serious consequences for the Asia region’s human and other inhabitants.
The discovery linking ancient and modern history hinges on wood. Trees provide an extensive climate record in their rings.
The tree rings’ tales of ebbs and flows in water availability show that Genghis Khan took power during a severe drought, says Amy Hessl, a geographer at West Virginia University and co-author of the paper.
But, the scientists found, the rapid expansion of Genghis Khan’s empire coincided with the wettest period in the region during the last millennium.
“Through a careful analysis of tree-ring records spanning eleven centuries, the researchers have provided valuable information about a period of great significance,” says Tom Baerwald, a program director for the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program, which funded the research.
CNH is one of NSF’s Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability (SEES) programs. CNH is supported by NSF’s Directorates for Geosciences; Biological Sciences; and Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences.
“The results also provide insights into the complex interactions of climate, vegetation and human activity in semi-arid regions today,” Baerwald says.
Though political realities would also have played into Genghis Khan’s power grab, the regional climate at the time appears to have supported his empire’s expansion.
The climate provided literal horsepower as armies and their horses fed off the fertile, rain-fed land.
“Such a strong and unified center would have required a concentration of resources that only higher productivity could have sustained, in a land in which extensive pastoral production does not normally provide surplus resources,” the paper states.
While the ramifications for past history are significant, so, too, are they for today’s.
The scientists believe that human-caused warming may have exacerbated the current drought in central Mongolia, similar to the drought that coincided with Genghis Khan’s initial rise to power.
“If future warming overwhelms increased precipitation, episodic ‘heat droughts’ and their social, economic and political consequences will likely become more common in Mongolia and Inner Asia,” according to the paper.
Hessl co-authored the report with scientists Neil Pederson of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Nachin Baatarbileg of the National University of Mongolia, Kevin Anchukaitis of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Nicola Di Cosmo of the Institute for Advanced Study.
-NSF-
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View of the modern-day Orkhon Valley near Karakorum, the ancient Mongol capital.
So it was wetter and colder in the latter part of Genghis Khan’s reign?
So the “mometer” part of treemometer actually stands for hygrometer?
On my (Chrome) the figure didn’t come through and the link doesn’t work.
No European of other Asian powers would have been able to fight off the Turkish/Mongol innovative tactics, whether is was led by Genghis Khan or anybody else. Let’s not forget that Genghis Khan led only one of several Turkish breakouts. Two centuries before Genghis Khan the Seljuk Turks – using basically the same innovations – broke out of Central Asia, defeated several Muslim empires, sacked Jerusalem and settled in Anatolia. After Genghis Khan his sons and grandson continued the spree of successful campaigns, conquering Russia, Hungary, large parts of the Middle East, Persia and again Anatolia. Where the crusades also helped by climate? What about WW1, WW2, Napoleon, Alexander the Great? Let’s not forget Hannibal, the Romans, the Egyptians, the American Civil War, the Revolutionary War, the Barbarian Wars, … . Many people will take this “link” between Genghis Khan and climate serious which is the most disheartening side of this story for me.
You know who didin’t ride climate change to power? Al Gore in 2000. Didn’t work as he was considered to be a bit of a nut on global warming. But things changed. By the time he made his movie, after much data manipulation and the fabrication of the hockey stick, and after they skillfully orchestrated a msm driven campaign of labeling the “deniers” as the nuts, he may not have been driven to power, but he certainly was made rich off the scam.
Btw, Gore’s movie was based on a fallacious claim, a claim that even the ipcc two years before had conceded was false, that there was documented evidence that CO2 causes climate temperature change; Gore knew the ipcc had conceded the point (after a 4 year fight), but Gore still went ahead with the claim in his movie; it was willful deception, seen here in this 3 minute graphic debunking of Gore’s deception on CO2,: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK_WyvfcJyg&info=GGWarmingSwindle_CO2Lag
Truly unbelieveable. The Mongol hordes are forced by a severe drought to leave Mongolia for greener pastures occupied by other ethnic groups. They eventually occupy much of Central Asia and rule it for a few hundred years. Now, another drought — manmade by assertion — could have disastrous consequences.
“If future warming overwhelms increased precipitation, episodic ‘heat droughts’ and their social, economic and political consequences will likely become more common in Mongolia and Inner Asia,” according to the paper.
Please! Technological progress has allowed humans to build dams, conserve resources, and, in general, cope much better with climate change.
Climate of Genghis Khan’s ancient time extends long shadow over Asia…
————
Climate wasn’t the only thing with a long shadow:
Genghis Khan a Prolific Lover, DNA Data Implies
😉
I’m sick and tired of the words “climate change”….
but can’t think of anything better……
climate oscillation
climate cycle
climate sine wave
[‘Natural variability’? ~ mod.]
This just in: the formation of the universe shaped by climate change.
We had previously been told that small tree ring widths meant it was colder. They should make up their minds, these dendochronolgists. Next they will be telling us ring width tells us the CO2 level.
The place is called Хархорум (Kharkhorum) and I visited it last July. There is a really nice new National Museum just east of the Erdene Zuu monastery with a model of the city. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Karakorum_Modell_1.jpg The museum has a spectacular collection of metal artifacts. The area is fabulously rich in history and artifacts and has hardly been explored – major archeological finds are made nearly every year.
One thing for sure, it was a lot warmer in those days. Travelling and fighting seem to have been possible 6 months of the year instead of today’s 3. The areas that supported grazing were far more extensive as a result of a warmer and wetter world. Whether or not this is a coincidence is hard to know, but drought? Possible. Chinggis wanted to find the fabled land to the West (Hungary) said to have the best grazing in the world. That was all he really wanted – the empire was incidental. The fact that he, a nobody herder, knew about the quality of grazing on the plains of Hungary shows there was consistent communication across Asia. The claim that ‘the current drought’ is caused by (17 years non-existent) warming in turn caused by AG CO2 is a pretty far fetched. As the ‘drought’ did not start during, say, the major warming of the 70’s and 80’s upon what is this claim based?
Something to watch for: anyone who claims that it was ‘colder and therefore wetter’ in 1190 is fibbing. If Mongolia in that region was any colder then than now there would have been no time to conquer anything other than making a fire and fending off wolves.
“Mongols distinguish ‘gobi’ from desert proper, although the distinction is not always apparent to outsiders unfamiliar with the Mongolian landscape.” “Mongolia’s weather is characterized by extreme variability and short-term unpredictability in the summer, and the multiyear averages conceal wide variations in precipitation, dates of frosts, and occurrences of blizzards and spring dust storms.” http://ancienthistory.about.com/od/southasia/qt/ClimateMongolia.htm
For further reading, “The Mummies of Urumchi” (Urumqi) by Barber is the story of the fair-haired natives (Nordic-looking) of Western China on display in the Museum at Urumchi who lived and died during the period of desertification during the cooling that followed the Minoan Climate Optimum. http://www.mummytombs.com/mummylocator/group/urumchi.htm It was warmer and wetter then, too.
As it cooled from 3000 BC the region got drier and drier. History facts say that when the NH warms, Central Asia gets wetter and the proof is lying right there in the sand. The primary conclusion, that Ghengis (Chinggis) Khan rode a climate optimum Westwards is correct. Given Mongolia’s recent descent into record cold and (relatively) increasing drought, it seems the paper’s secondary conclusion is in error, even if the authors did not remember to mention that the climate has always shown ‘extreme variability’.
While the ramifications for past history are significant…
————
I’m glad they specified past history! I might have thought they were talking about present history or future history.
@Eric Simpson
>You know who didin’t ride climate change to power?
That is hilarious! I was going to phrase it, “Who didn’t ride climate change to power” with a list of Green Party members who got in on the % of vote system.
That Dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural Systems is part of implementing the Belmont Challenge the NSF is involved in and the Future Earth Alliance that replaced the Earth Science System Partnership at the beginning of 2013.
It also reflects the Big History push being funded by the Gates Foundation that was created by Professor David Christian. Deeply troubling and ideological.
http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/schools-that-break-down-obstacles-to-the-formation-of-revolutionary-personalities/ explains the importance of this global Big History ideological juggernaut and why we are seeing so much active cultivation of influential false beliefs by education.
And media for that matter as the other leg of communication but that’s a different story. The point is to develop perceptions that guide how reality is viewed so it is not perceived accurately. The false perceptions create a fuel to act though, which is the whole point and to want others to act as well.
Seems to me that the rise of Genghis Khan and the Mongol invasion of Europe coincides rather well with the Mediaeval Warm Period. I can well believe the onset of this climate change had effects in Central Asia since we know that it did in Europe and the Atlantic region where Greenland was settled by the Vikings.
Given that CO2 levels were rather low at this period quite how this is supposed to prove the risks of AGW escapes me.
The Mongols largely came westward due to an accident of history. in 1218,
Genghis Khan sent a trade mission to the Khwarezm empire, ruled by Muhammad II.
Muhammad II had the 3 Mongol envoys executed. Genghis Khan wasn’t the man
to take this lying down, and he invaded and crushed Khwarezm in 1219. After
Muhammad fled, Genghis Khan sent a force of 20,000, led by his top generals
Subotai and Jebe, after him.
Subotai and Jebe, while pursuing Muhammad II, raided several Persian cities and
plundered into the Caucasus, Georgia, and eventually rode completely around
the Caspian Sea to reach home. Their reports of rich plunder fired up the Mongol
desire to conquer and raid into the West. Had Shah Muhammad II received the
Mongol envoys as ambassadors and opened peaceful trade–the Mongols probably
would have expended their energy conquering China 2 generations before they
did it anyway.
“The scientists believe that human-caused warming may have exacerbated the current drought in central Mongolia, similar to the drought that coincided with Genghis Khan’s initial rise to power.”
If human caused warming has made this drought similar to one coinciding with Khan…what caused the drought in Kahn’s time? Do these “scientists” not see the complete contradiction and lack of causation here?
This could be fun to watch. Historian spinners of tales and explainers of motivations vs. climate change shaman explainers. Break out the pens.
Genghis Khan invented the SUV?
This isn’t a new argument. Nels Winkless and Iben Browning made the argument decades ago that that the Central Asian steppe was subject to climate swings that periodically ran the inhabitants out of the region looking – literally – for better pastures.
Steven Devijver says:
March 12, 2014 at 1:14 pm
My God man, you’ve neglected to mention the unification of China under Xin, the Trojan war, the Persian wars, the Peloponnesian War, the Viking raids, the Reformation, the Glorious Revolution, the Armada, and the development of Coca-Cola. All of it is linked to climate change, or at least could be linked to climate change. Anyway I’m sure the models will show that with every one of these events some people were unhappy with local conditions either too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, not enough women, etc. Not to mention all those people trying to save lobsters from resorting to cannibalism when they got too numerous by eating them first.
Yep, those Mongols were just one of a long chain of climate refugees, caused by too much human-emitted CO2. A pity they didn’t have Bill McKibben around back them to warn them of the dangers of having fires to keep themselves warm …
For those sleepless nights, or even just to put you to sleep.
You could hit part 1(of 5 ).
http://www.dancarlin.com//disp.php/hharchive/Show-43—Wrath-of-the-Khans-I/Mongols-Genghis-Chingis
They are all free, all 5 parts.
The only mention of the weather I remember was when they drove into “tropical China”, the warmth exposed them to “bugs” they had no resistance against.
The full audio series takes about 9 hours, all about Genghis Khan.
(just hit the download link, it starts right up).
I’m a bit puzzled by the amount of publicity this claim that Ghenghis Khan rode to power on the benign climate of the times is actually news.
There are numerous references in the history of the Mongol Hordes of how they rose to power through a series of decades long good seasons across the steppes of Central Asia which allowed them to dramatically increase their livestock numbers, particularly the Mongolian Horses that were the backbone of their civilisation and also allowed their numbers to increase quite dramatically.
History shows that when such benign climates benefitted those ancient peoples all that was needed was for a charismatic war leader to emerge and the tribes went on a rampage of conquests and pillage over vast areas of territory.
So what’s news about this paper other than to prove that the Central Asian steppes climate went through a warm wet golden patch which allowed a warlike peoples to build up their resources and to go forth on a world conquest which is just what the history passed down through the ages has been telling us.
And, in parallel, the Dark Ages (right after the Roman Warm Period) were closed by the invading European tribes coming south and west over the Rhine (and other rivers) as THEY tried to get to warmer environ’s ….
Yeah as it heats up, the Mongols are in trouble. But for now its -21C over half way through March.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=weather+mongolia&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb&gfe_rd=ctrl&ei=69cgU8zjAaqD8QfIzYHIDQ&gws_rd=cr
On the other side of the globe in Dryden Ontario, its around the same – how would you like to be shoveling this walk:
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/videos/gallery/all/video_gallery/im-in-way-over-my-head/sharevideo/3328106104001
I Khana agree with this captain.