Claim: Ghenghis Khan rode climate change to power

From the National Science Foundation Press Release 14-032

Climate of Genghis Khan’s ancient time extends long shadow over Asia of today

Current drought in Mongolia could have serious consequences

View of the modern-day Orkhon Valley near KarakorumView of the modern-day Orkhon Valley near Karakorum, the ancient Mongol capital.

Credit and Larger Version

March 10, 2014

Climate was very much on Genghis Khan’s side as he expanded his Mongol Empire across northeastern Asia.

That link between Mongolia’s climate and its human history echoes down the centuries, according to findings reported in this week’s issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

But climate may no longer be the boon it was during the latter, wetter part of Genghis Khan’s reign. The early years were marked by drought.

Mongolia’s current drought conditions could have serious consequences for the Asia region’s human and other inhabitants.

The discovery linking ancient and modern history hinges on wood. Trees provide an extensive climate record in their rings.

The tree rings’ tales of ebbs and flows in water availability show that Genghis Khan took power during a severe drought, says Amy Hessl, a geographer at West Virginia University and co-author of the paper.

But, the scientists found, the rapid expansion of Genghis Khan’s empire coincided with the wettest period in the region during the last millennium.

“Through a careful analysis of tree-ring records spanning eleven centuries, the researchers have provided valuable information about a period of great significance,” says Tom Baerwald, a program director for the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program, which funded the research.

CNH is one of NSF’s Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability (SEES) programs. CNH is supported by NSF’s Directorates for Geosciences; Biological Sciences; and Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences.

“The results also provide insights into the complex interactions of climate, vegetation and human activity in semi-arid regions today,” Baerwald says.

Though political realities would also have played into Genghis Khan’s power grab, the regional climate at the time appears to have supported his empire’s expansion.

The climate provided literal horsepower as armies and their horses fed off the fertile, rain-fed land.

“Such a strong and unified center would have required a concentration of resources that only higher productivity could have sustained, in a land in which extensive pastoral production does not normally provide surplus resources,” the paper states.

While the ramifications for past history are significant, so, too, are they for today’s.

The scientists believe that human-caused warming may have exacerbated the current drought in central Mongolia, similar to the drought that coincided with Genghis Khan’s initial rise to power.

“If future warming overwhelms increased precipitation, episodic ‘heat droughts’ and their social, economic and political consequences will likely become more common in Mongolia and Inner Asia,” according to the paper.

Hessl co-authored the report with scientists Neil Pederson of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Nachin Baatarbileg of the National University of Mongolia, Kevin Anchukaitis of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Nicola Di Cosmo of the Institute for Advanced Study.

-NSF-

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Steve Keohane
March 12, 2014 1:06 pm

So it was wetter and colder in the latter part of Genghis Khan’s reign?

Lance Wallace
March 12, 2014 1:09 pm

So the “mometer” part of treemometer actually stands for hygrometer?
On my (Chrome) the figure didn’t come through and the link doesn’t work.

Steven Devijver
March 12, 2014 1:14 pm

No European of other Asian powers would have been able to fight off the Turkish/Mongol innovative tactics, whether is was led by Genghis Khan or anybody else. Let’s not forget that Genghis Khan led only one of several Turkish breakouts. Two centuries before Genghis Khan the Seljuk Turks – using basically the same innovations – broke out of Central Asia, defeated several Muslim empires, sacked Jerusalem and settled in Anatolia. After Genghis Khan his sons and grandson continued the spree of successful campaigns, conquering Russia, Hungary, large parts of the Middle East, Persia and again Anatolia. Where the crusades also helped by climate? What about WW1, WW2, Napoleon, Alexander the Great? Let’s not forget Hannibal, the Romans, the Egyptians, the American Civil War, the Revolutionary War, the Barbarian Wars, … . Many people will take this “link” between Genghis Khan and climate serious which is the most disheartening side of this story for me.

March 12, 2014 1:20 pm

You know who didin’t ride climate change to power? Al Gore in 2000. Didn’t work as he was considered to be a bit of a nut on global warming. But things changed. By the time he made his movie, after much data manipulation and the fabrication of the hockey stick, and after they skillfully orchestrated a msm driven campaign of labeling the “deniers” as the nuts, he may not have been driven to power, but he certainly was made rich off the scam.
Btw, Gore’s movie was based on a fallacious claim, a claim that even the ipcc two years before had conceded was false, that there was documented evidence that CO2 causes climate temperature change; Gore knew the ipcc had conceded the point (after a 4 year fight), but Gore still went ahead with the claim in his movie; it was willful deception, seen here in this 3 minute graphic debunking of Gore’s deception on CO2,: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK_WyvfcJyg&info=GGWarmingSwindle_CO2Lag

Mohatdebos
March 12, 2014 1:33 pm

Truly unbelieveable. The Mongol hordes are forced by a severe drought to leave Mongolia for greener pastures occupied by other ethnic groups. They eventually occupy much of Central Asia and rule it for a few hundred years. Now, another drought — manmade by assertion — could have disastrous consequences.
“If future warming overwhelms increased precipitation, episodic ‘heat droughts’ and their social, economic and political consequences will likely become more common in Mongolia and Inner Asia,” according to the paper.
Please! Technological progress has allowed humans to build dams, conserve resources, and, in general, cope much better with climate change.

March 12, 2014 1:49 pm

Climate of Genghis Khan’s ancient time extends long shadow over Asia…
————
Climate wasn’t the only thing with a long shadow:
Genghis Khan a Prolific Lover, DNA Data Implies
😉

Latitude
March 12, 2014 1:49 pm

I’m sick and tired of the words “climate change”….
but can’t think of anything better……
climate oscillation
climate cycle
climate sine wave
[‘Natural variability’? ~ mod.]

Robert W Turner
March 12, 2014 1:52 pm

This just in: the formation of the universe shaped by climate change.

Crispin in Waterloo
March 12, 2014 1:55 pm

We had previously been told that small tree ring widths meant it was colder. They should make up their minds, these dendochronolgists. Next they will be telling us ring width tells us the CO2 level.
The place is called Хархорум (Kharkhorum) and I visited it last July. There is a really nice new National Museum just east of the Erdene Zuu monastery with a model of the city. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Karakorum_Modell_1.jpg The museum has a spectacular collection of metal artifacts. The area is fabulously rich in history and artifacts and has hardly been explored – major archeological finds are made nearly every year.
One thing for sure, it was a lot warmer in those days. Travelling and fighting seem to have been possible 6 months of the year instead of today’s 3. The areas that supported grazing were far more extensive as a result of a warmer and wetter world. Whether or not this is a coincidence is hard to know, but drought? Possible. Chinggis wanted to find the fabled land to the West (Hungary) said to have the best grazing in the world. That was all he really wanted – the empire was incidental. The fact that he, a nobody herder, knew about the quality of grazing on the plains of Hungary shows there was consistent communication across Asia. The claim that ‘the current drought’ is caused by (17 years non-existent) warming in turn caused by AG CO2 is a pretty far fetched. As the ‘drought’ did not start during, say, the major warming of the 70’s and 80’s upon what is this claim based?
Something to watch for: anyone who claims that it was ‘colder and therefore wetter’ in 1190 is fibbing. If Mongolia in that region was any colder then than now there would have been no time to conquer anything other than making a fire and fending off wolves.
“Mongols distinguish ‘gobi’ from desert proper, although the distinction is not always apparent to outsiders unfamiliar with the Mongolian landscape.” “Mongolia’s weather is characterized by extreme variability and short-term unpredictability in the summer, and the multiyear averages conceal wide variations in precipitation, dates of frosts, and occurrences of blizzards and spring dust storms.” http://ancienthistory.about.com/od/southasia/qt/ClimateMongolia.htm
For further reading, “The Mummies of Urumchi” (Urumqi) by Barber is the story of the fair-haired natives (Nordic-looking) of Western China on display in the Museum at Urumchi who lived and died during the period of desertification during the cooling that followed the Minoan Climate Optimum. http://www.mummytombs.com/mummylocator/group/urumchi.htm It was warmer and wetter then, too.
As it cooled from 3000 BC the region got drier and drier. History facts say that when the NH warms, Central Asia gets wetter and the proof is lying right there in the sand. The primary conclusion, that Ghengis (Chinggis) Khan rode a climate optimum Westwards is correct. Given Mongolia’s recent descent into record cold and (relatively) increasing drought, it seems the paper’s secondary conclusion is in error, even if the authors did not remember to mention that the climate has always shown ‘extreme variability’.

March 12, 2014 1:56 pm

While the ramifications for past history are significant…
————
I’m glad they specified past history! I might have thought they were talking about present history or future history.

Crispin in Waterloo
March 12, 2014 1:58 pm

@Eric Simpson
>You know who didin’t ride climate change to power?
That is hilarious! I was going to phrase it, “Who didn’t ride climate change to power” with a list of Green Party members who got in on the % of vote system.

March 12, 2014 2:00 pm

That Dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural Systems is part of implementing the Belmont Challenge the NSF is involved in and the Future Earth Alliance that replaced the Earth Science System Partnership at the beginning of 2013.
It also reflects the Big History push being funded by the Gates Foundation that was created by Professor David Christian. Deeply troubling and ideological.

March 12, 2014 2:04 pm

http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/schools-that-break-down-obstacles-to-the-formation-of-revolutionary-personalities/ explains the importance of this global Big History ideological juggernaut and why we are seeing so much active cultivation of influential false beliefs by education.
And media for that matter as the other leg of communication but that’s a different story. The point is to develop perceptions that guide how reality is viewed so it is not perceived accurately. The false perceptions create a fuel to act though, which is the whole point and to want others to act as well.

Keith Willshaw
March 12, 2014 2:07 pm

Seems to me that the rise of Genghis Khan and the Mongol invasion of Europe coincides rather well with the Mediaeval Warm Period. I can well believe the onset of this climate change had effects in Central Asia since we know that it did in Europe and the Atlantic region where Greenland was settled by the Vikings.
Given that CO2 levels were rather low at this period quite how this is supposed to prove the risks of AGW escapes me.

Chris R.
March 12, 2014 2:13 pm

The Mongols largely came westward due to an accident of history. in 1218,
Genghis Khan sent a trade mission to the Khwarezm empire, ruled by Muhammad II.
Muhammad II had the 3 Mongol envoys executed. Genghis Khan wasn’t the man
to take this lying down, and he invaded and crushed Khwarezm in 1219. After
Muhammad fled, Genghis Khan sent a force of 20,000, led by his top generals
Subotai and Jebe, after him.
Subotai and Jebe, while pursuing Muhammad II, raided several Persian cities and
plundered into the Caucasus, Georgia, and eventually rode completely around
the Caspian Sea to reach home. Their reports of rich plunder fired up the Mongol
desire to conquer and raid into the West. Had Shah Muhammad II received the
Mongol envoys as ambassadors and opened peaceful trade–the Mongols probably
would have expended their energy conquering China 2 generations before they
did it anyway.

Eric
March 12, 2014 2:18 pm

“The scientists believe that human-caused warming may have exacerbated the current drought in central Mongolia, similar to the drought that coincided with Genghis Khan’s initial rise to power.”
If human caused warming has made this drought similar to one coinciding with Khan…what caused the drought in Kahn’s time? Do these “scientists” not see the complete contradiction and lack of causation here?

Resourceguy
March 12, 2014 2:24 pm

This could be fun to watch. Historian spinners of tales and explainers of motivations vs. climate change shaman explainers. Break out the pens.

JimS
March 12, 2014 2:24 pm

Genghis Khan invented the SUV?

Duster
March 12, 2014 2:28 pm

This isn’t a new argument. Nels Winkless and Iben Browning made the argument decades ago that that the Central Asian steppe was subject to climate swings that periodically ran the inhabitants out of the region looking – literally – for better pastures.

March 12, 2014 2:35 pm

Steven Devijver says:
March 12, 2014 at 1:14 pm
My God man, you’ve neglected to mention the unification of China under Xin, the Trojan war, the Persian wars, the Peloponnesian War, the Viking raids, the Reformation, the Glorious Revolution, the Armada, and the development of Coca-Cola. All of it is linked to climate change, or at least could be linked to climate change. Anyway I’m sure the models will show that with every one of these events some people were unhappy with local conditions either too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, not enough women, etc. Not to mention all those people trying to save lobsters from resorting to cannibalism when they got too numerous by eating them first.
Yep, those Mongols were just one of a long chain of climate refugees, caused by too much human-emitted CO2. A pity they didn’t have Bill McKibben around back them to warn them of the dangers of having fires to keep themselves warm …

u.k.(us)
March 12, 2014 2:40 pm

For those sleepless nights, or even just to put you to sleep.
You could hit part 1(of 5 ).
http://www.dancarlin.com//disp.php/hharchive/Show-43—Wrath-of-the-Khans-I/Mongols-Genghis-Chingis
They are all free, all 5 parts.
The only mention of the weather I remember was when they drove into “tropical China”, the warmth exposed them to “bugs” they had no resistance against.
The full audio series takes about 9 hours, all about Genghis Khan.
(just hit the download link, it starts right up).

ROM
March 12, 2014 2:44 pm

I’m a bit puzzled by the amount of publicity this claim that Ghenghis Khan rode to power on the benign climate of the times is actually news.
There are numerous references in the history of the Mongol Hordes of how they rose to power through a series of decades long good seasons across the steppes of Central Asia which allowed them to dramatically increase their livestock numbers, particularly the Mongolian Horses that were the backbone of their civilisation and also allowed their numbers to increase quite dramatically.
History shows that when such benign climates benefitted those ancient peoples all that was needed was for a charismatic war leader to emerge and the tribes went on a rampage of conquests and pillage over vast areas of territory.
So what’s news about this paper other than to prove that the Central Asian steppes climate went through a warm wet golden patch which allowed a warlike peoples to build up their resources and to go forth on a world conquest which is just what the history passed down through the ages has been telling us.

RACookPE1978
Editor
March 12, 2014 2:52 pm

And, in parallel, the Dark Ages (right after the Roman Warm Period) were closed by the invading European tribes coming south and west over the Rhine (and other rivers) as THEY tried to get to warmer environ’s ….

March 12, 2014 3:00 pm

Yeah as it heats up, the Mongols are in trouble. But for now its -21C over half way through March.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=weather+mongolia&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb&gfe_rd=ctrl&ei=69cgU8zjAaqD8QfIzYHIDQ&gws_rd=cr
On the other side of the globe in Dryden Ontario, its around the same – how would you like to be shoveling this walk:
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/videos/gallery/all/video_gallery/im-in-way-over-my-head/sharevideo/3328106104001

Jimbo
March 12, 2014 3:03 pm

The scientists believe that human-caused warming may have exacerbated the current drought in central Mongolia, similar to the drought that coincided with Genghis Khan’s initial rise to power.
“If future warming overwhelms increased precipitation, episodic ‘heat droughts’ and their social, economic and political consequences will likely become more common in Mongolia and Inner Asia,” according to the paper.

I Khana agree with this captain.

Abstract
Fahu Chen et al
A mid-Holocene drought interval as evidenced by lake desiccation in the Alashan Plateau, Inner Mongolia China
The mid-Holocene in China is traditionally thought to be a warm and humid period with a strong summer monsoon, and is often termed the Holocene Climatic Optimum or Megathermal Period. Here we present lake geomorphologic and lithological evidence from the Alashan Plateau, part of the Mongolian Plateau, that indicates strong lake desiccation during the mid-Holocene. High resolution pollen data from Zhuyeze Lake, at the present summer monsoon margin, is also presented. These data show that present lakes and wetlands in the Juyanze Lake basin west of the Badain Jaran desert, in the Zhuyeze Lake basin between the Badain Jaran and Tengger deserts, and in lakes in the eastern Tengger desert, dried or experienced low lake levels in the mid-Holocene around 5000–7000 cal yr BP. Pollen data further indicate that the vegetation cover declined in both the local areas and in the Qilian Mountains, suggesting the climate was drier than that associated with the present Asian summer monsoon. This mid-Holocene drought interval was present throughout a quite large region of the south Inner Mongolian Plateau. The period was also probably colder, at least in the high Asian plateaus and mountains.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1360/03wd0245
————————–
Abstract
Holocene environmental changes in the central Inner Mongolia, based on single-aliquot-quartz optical dating and multi-proxy study of dune sands
Alternating units of dune sands and paleosols in the central Inner Mongolia imply multiple episodes of dune building and stabilization, in response to the waxing and waning of the East Asian monsoon. Such eolian deposits were dated by using the single-aliquot-quartz optical dating method. Combined with the multi-proxy study on the deposits, the past environmental changes during the Holocene have been reconstructed. Our results indicate that widespread eolian sand mobilization occurred in the studied region during the beginning of the early Holocene from 11.5 ka to ∼ 9 ka. The climate became warm and humid during the period between ∼ 9 ka and ∼ 5.6 ka (Holocene Optimum). After ∼ 5.6 ka, the region again became arid, as inferred from dune building. However, the environmental changes during the late Holocene have been affected by both climate and human impacts, and the presence of desert environment in such semiarid region is not only the result of climatic drought of the late Holocene, but also related to poor land-use practices.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.09.016
—————————–
Abstract
Reconstruction of climate and vegetation changes of Lake Bayanchagan (Inner Mongolia): Holocene variability of the East Asian monsoon
A high-resolution pollen and Pediastrum record, spanning 12,500 yr, is presented for Lake Bayanchagan (115.21°E, 41.65°N, and 1355 m a.s.l.), southern Inner Mongolia. Individual pollen taxa (PT-MAT) and the PFT affinity scores (PFT-MAT) were used for quantitative climatic reconstruction from pollen and algal data. Both techniques indicate that a cold and dry climate, similar to that of today, prevailed before 10,500 cal yr B.P. The wettest climate occurred between ∼10,500 and 6500 cal yr B.P., at which time annual precipitation was up to 30–60% higher than today. The early Holocene increases in temperature and precipitation occurred simultaneously, but mid-Holocene cooling started at approximately 8000 cal yr B.P., 1500 yr earlier than the drying. Vegetation reconstruction was based on the objective assignment of pollen taxa to the plant functional type. The results suggest that this region was dominated by steppe vegetation throughout the Holocene, except for the period ∼9200 to ∼6700 cal yr B.P., when forest patches were relatively common. Inner Mongolia is situated at the limit of the present East Asian monsoon and patterns of vegetation and climate changes in that region during the Holocene probably reflect fluctuations in the monsoon’s response to solar insolation variations. The early to middle Holocene monsoon undoubtedly extended to more northern latitudes than at present.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2005.10.007

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