From Cardiff University
Sun’s energy influences 1,000 years of natural climate variability in North Atlantic
Changes in the sun’s energy output may have led to marked natural climate change in Europe over the last 1000 years, according to researchers at Cardiff University.
Scientists studied seafloor sediments to determine how the temperature of the North Atlantic and its localised atmospheric circulation had altered. Warm surface waters flowing across the North Atlantic, an extension of the Gulf Stream, and warm westerly winds are responsible for the relatively mild climate of Europe, especially in winter. Slight changes in the transport of heat associated with these systems can led to regional climate variability, and the study findings matched historic accounts of climate change, including the notoriously severe winters of the 16th and 18th centuries which pre-date global industrialisation.
The study found that changes in the Sun’s activity can have a considerable impact on the ocean-atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic, with potential effects on regional climate.
Predictions suggest a prolonged period of low sun activity over the next few decades, but any associated natural temperature changes will be much smaller than those created by human carbon dioxide emissions, say researchers.
The study, led by Cardiff University scientists, in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Bern, is published today in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Dr Paola Moffa-Sanchez, lead author from Cardiff University School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, explained: “We used seafloor sediments taken from south of Iceland to study changes in the warm surface ocean current. This was done by analysing the chemical composition of fossilised microorganisms that had once lived in the surface of the ocean. These measurements were then used to reconstruct the seawater temperature and the salinity of this key ocean current over the past 1000 years.”
The results of these analyses revealed large and abrupt temperature and salinity changes in the north-flowing warm current on time-scales of several decades to centuries. Cold ocean conditions were found to match periods of low solar energy output, corresponding to intervals of low sunspot activity observed on the surface of the sun. Using a physics-based climate model, the authors were able to test the response of the ocean to changes in the solar output and found similar results to the data.
“By using the climate model it was also possible to explore how the changes in solar output affected the surface circulation of the Atlantic Ocean,” said Prof Ian Hall, a co-author of the study. “The circulation of the surface of the Atlantic Ocean is typically tightly linked to changes in the wind patterns. Analysis of the atmosphere component in the climate model revealed that during periods of solar minima there was a high-pressure system located west of the British Isles. This feature is often referred to as atmospheric blocking, and it is called this because it blocks the warm westerly winds diverting them and allowing cold Arctic air to flow south bringing harsh winters to Europe, such as those recently experienced in 2010 and 2013.”
Meteorological studies have previously found similar effects of solar variability on the strength and duration of atmospheric winter blockings over the last 50 years, and although the exact nature of this relationship is not yet clear, it is thought to be due to complex processes happening in the upper layers of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere.
Dr Paola Moffa-Sanchez added: “In this study we show that this relationship is also at play on longer time-scales and the large ocean changes, recorded in the microfossils, may have helped sustain this atmospheric pattern. Indeed we propose that this combined ocean-atmospheric response to solar output minima may help explain the notoriously severe winters experienced across Europe between the 16th and 18th centuries, so vividly depicted in many paintings, including those of the famous London Frost Fairs on the River Thames, but also leading to extensive crop failures and famine as corroborated in the record of wheat prices during these periods.”
The study concludes that although the temperature changes expected from future solar activity are much smaller than the warming from human carbon dioxide emissions, regional climate variability associated with the effects of solar output on the ocean and atmosphere should be taken into account when making future climate projections.
Notes for Editors:
Funding for this research has come from the Natural Environment Research Council, UK, the National Science Foundation, Switzerland, the European Commission and NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL). This research forms part of the Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W; http://c3wales.org/).
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The paper:
Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium
Paola Moffa-Sánchez, Andreas Born, Ian R. Hall, David J. R. Thornalley & Stephen Barker
Nature Geoscience (2014) doi:10.1038/ngeo2094
Abstract:
There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age1. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation2. Changes in the return limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are reflected in water properties at the base of the mixed layer south of Iceland. Here we reconstruct thermocline temperature and salinity in this region from AD 818 to 1780 using paired δ18O and Mg/Ca ratio measurements of foraminifer shells from a subdecadally resolved marine sediment core. The reconstructed centennial-scale variations in hydrography correlate with variability in total solar irradiance. We find a similar correlation in a simulation of climate over the past 1,000 years. We infer that the hydrographic changes probably reflect variability in the strength of the subpolar gyre associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. Specifically, in the simulation, low solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events, in which a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. We conclude that this process could have contributed to the consecutive cold winters documented in Europe during the Little Ice Age.
Translation:
“Overall, blame CO2 emissions for having a much greater impact on temperature than a waning sun. But when model projections fail miserably, blame the waning sun for inducing regional scale, oceanatmosphere induced feedback loops.”
Cut & paste error – Fixed
Stephen Wilde: Direct effects, no. The change in simple TSI is too small as Leif often points out.
Indirect effects, yes, because the global air circulation patterns appear to change with changes in solar activity. The above paper makes a start in recognising that fact but ignores the similar changes in the southern hemisphere during the LIA.
I meant direct and indirect effects combined. Like you, I hope for more studies along these lines.
The following link provides a .pdf file of the Supplimentary Information supporting their NatGeo paper. Contains their sampling techniques, analytical methods, and statistical tricks. Only about 2.5Mb…. Couldn’t access the full paper, but found this while searching:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/ngeo2094-s1.pdf
A History of Solar Activity over Millennia.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0810.3972.pdf
It’s wrong.. the sun does not induce carbon dioxide warming or cooling.
“Low solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events”.
Joe Bastardi used equivalent words on his videos on Saturday 1st and 8th of March ’14.
WeatherBELL, at http://www.weatherbell.com/
Andres Valencia says:
March 10, 2014 at 7:25 pm
It’s not solar irradiance. Hi or Low.
There are two main factors that drive weather;
1) The Sun
2) What regulates the sun.
3) What the Sun regulates.
Ken Gregory says:
March 10, 2014 at 2:06 pm
Where are the charts, graphs, data!
This link has four figures, but they are too small!
————————————————
I often find that the underlying data in climate science papers is completely different than the charts shown in the paper (but this seems to be exclusively on the global warming activist side rather than the objective sceptic side).
In this case, the main large size graph is particularly impressive. Based on the chart, it doesn’t look like they screwed around with the basic data. Be10 and volcanic influences on TSI, very closely correlated to the temp from do18. I don’t think anyone has done this at high resolution before.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/fig_tab/ngeo2094_F2.html
Just for reader’s info, in the journal “Nature”, the link to the large scale charts will have “fig_tab” in the link line or “images_article” rather than “carousel”. Just change it in the link line. small image with carousel below.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/carousel/ngeo2094-f2.jpg
Janice Moore says:
March 10, 2014 at 4:02 pm
“1. When (if ever) has solar activity been high enough for long enough to almost certainly have caused a general warming of Earth?”
Hmm, I was thinking that just this morning as I stepped out into 261 K without slippers: WTH, will the sun never come out???
profitup10 says: @ur momisugly March 10, 2014 at 2:09 pm
…
My first reaction to this was: Time to DE-FUND SCIENCE! And ad Academia too while you are at it.
Janice Moore says:
March 10, 2014 at 4:02 pm
“1. When (if ever) has solar activity been high enough for long enough to almost certainly have caused a general warming of Earth?”
When its Magnetic poles revolve around its equator facing us for extended periods. it has serious dangerous potential, where as the silly gases do not.
Blocking patterns..changes in atmospheric circulation patterns..
Over the course of a normal? lol solar cycle.. Earth’s rotation changes +3ms to -3ms. Over the course of a normal solar cycle.
Over the course of a solar cycle the plasmasphere sub-corotates and super corotates.
What could change the angle and strength of the polar vortex? and bring up some blocking patterns?
good night
I like that x,y,z and w.. good stuff..
Carla says:
March 10, 2014 at 9:07 pm
You need to buy a frame of reference frame lol get tax for it or something!
” y% is due to man [CO2, land use, manipulation of data] ”
This is the money quote
Anthony,
Usual disinformation at the BBC. Headline is…….. Genghis Khan: Good weather ‘helped him to conquer’
In the article we get “But as the empire expanded from from 1211 to 1225, Mongolia saw an unusual spell of regular rainfall and mild temperatures.” Genghis Khan died in 1227, but the Mongols continued to expand their empire. So, shouldn’t those 16 years be more accurately described in terms of a changed climate, rather than as weather, which is more of a daily event?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26523524
The Alans were another horse culture who were forced west seeking better pasture for their horses & as they moved east to west, the climate improved & their power increased, until they made right nuisances of themselves in Europe..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alans
all i can think of is this quote i saw today. Some dude from congress said wind was a finite resource. Not sure if it was fabricated for meme’s sake but sometimes i wonder about their intelligence.
Perry,
that’s all crap and conclusions from experts!
. “…temperature changes will be much smaller than those created by human carbon dioxide emissions… .”
Without that insertion, for which the authors appear to have produced no evidence, it is doubtful if they would have justified their grants and, almost certainly would not have been published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Well if you ask me, (don’t ask me), “Study”, is an acronym for “Contemplate your navel.”
Scientist do NOT “Study” ! They “observe” and they “measure”.
So they got funding for this “study” from Switzerland; now that is ironic.
Just last Sunday, I took a five minute stroll down the road from the front door of my little sister’s apartment, where I was able to take a photograph, of the real, and the imaginary. I wish I could simply copy and paste that picture right here.
It’s basically a picture of a small economy car pulling out of a gas station (the real); a European gas station.
Looming up in a field behind, is what looks to me like a real life Higgs Boson. (the imaginary).
Yes my sister has lived for decades, five minutes up the road from CERN.
The gendarmes showed up en masse (that’s French), and hussled me out the front gate, which wasn’t supposed to be open on Sunday; but I got my pictures anyway.
Maybe I’ll see if they will let me in tomorrow, (with my camera).
But Higgs Boson’s are not going to replace the gasoline, in your economy car; the Swiss, do have some very nice looking and tiny cars, from Mercedes, and Alfa Romeo, and others, and some nice fancy BMW motor bike/scooter/hansomcab/whatever gizmos.
But pay no attention to the Swiss, when it comes to being green and clean. Yes the trains are clean, and they really do run on time; bloody amazing system actually.
BUT ! it looks as if about one person in three under age 35-45 ; men, women, and children, all smoke, and they hang around the train/bus stops; always upwind of me, so the whole town stinks, like an old ash tray. But the United Nothings, Geneve, can always be counted on as a good place to protest for free clean green renewable energy/air/whatever .
But if you are going to dig around in the mud for “study” material, well excuse me, I meant to say sediments, not mud; you can probably find some dirt on something, that the Swiss, might pay you to “study.”
This appears to be strong support for Stephen Wilde’s New Climate Model.
Specifically, weak sun – loopy meridional jets (and blocking highs),
strong sun – straight zonal jets.
I remember time (not so long ago) when Dr. Svalgaard refused to attribute any warming or cooling to the solar activity. Now he gives that negligible shiny object in the sky 25% of the influence. I’d call it a progress, if it wasn’t a retreat.
Well CET oscillates along with little regard to either the Sun or AWG.
http://climatedatablog.wordpress.com/cet/
george e. smith says:
March 11, 2014 at 2:02 am
“I wish I could simply copy and paste that picture right here.”
Let snag.gy http://snag.gy/ be your friend. Copy your clipboard to the ‘net with ctrl-V and post the url!
Chris says: @ur momisugly March 10, 2014 at 4:25 pm
…. temperature could go down with solar activity, we could end up seeing a decline in CO2 levels down the road. It would be fun to see how the alarmists would explain that away.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Who says they have to explain it if they are the ones doing the ‘record keeping’?
We have already seen they have no respect for the data and will manipulated so it matches the agenda.
Temperatures would still be ‘Rising’ if warmists were in charge of the satelite data.