By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Seventeen and a half years. Not a flicker of global warming. The RSS satellite record, the first of the five global-temperature datasets to report its February value, shows a zero trend for an impressive 210 months. Miss Brevis, send a postcard to Mr Gore:
Why did none of the vaunted models predict this long hiatus, stasis, pause, halt, rest, interval, intermission, break, time out, vacation, furlough, gap, plateau, or flat spot?
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Yes, Millionaire Obama has nothing to worry about as he has just guaranteed his income for LIFE, all at taxpayers expense. A cost that the US taxpayer has been coughing up since that free-loader was born obviously.
Many of the teenage climate alarmists were not even alive the last time the Earth warmed.
This link was shared over at Bishop Hill, citing Santer, et al 2014:
“Their Fig 1 shows raw lower temperature data (a), that with the El Nino removed (b) and that with El Nino and El Chichon and Pinatubo removed (c). Looking at 1c one sees that the lower atmosphere shows a standstill since 1993, that is 20 years! This is in itself a remarkable graph extending the ‘pause’ into the start of its third decade.”
http://www.thegwpf.org/volcanoes-20-year-pause/
Village Idiot says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:16 am
Of course the RSS data set (known by Sir Chris as the “Received Data Set”) is looking by all accounts as a bit of an outlier when compared to other global temperature estimates.
This can easily be seen, for example, when comparing the temp trend around the years 2002-2006 for all 5 data sets. The simple running 37 month average highlights this nicely – only RSS showing a downward trend.
http://www.climate4you.com/
Ought he RSS crew to look again at their data processing and adjustments to see where the problem lies?
——————————————————————————————————————
‘It might be more producive for them to look at the other sets’ processing and adjustments to see where the problem lies 😉
“Why did none of the vaunted models predict this long hiatus, stasis, pause, halt, rest, interval, intermission, break, time out, vacation, furlough, gap, plateau, or flat spot?”
Perhaps because they are incorrect, erroneous, mistaken, unsound, untrue, defective, faulty, fallacious, misguided, or flat wrong.
Perhaps.
Mostly.
Don’t the models invalidate the measurements?
So did CO2 prevent climate change during that period?
“The RSS satellite record, the first of the five global-temperature datasets to report its February value…”
Answer to the question, “Why is Monckton only using RSS?”
Can’t show the others until they are released. Doh.
Roy says:
March 4, 2014 at 6:14 am
Don’t the models invalidate the measurements?
Impressive. That kind of thinking will get you a seat on Apple’s Board of Directors.
🙂
The reason one calculates this trend is to test climate models. See Knight et al (BAMS 2009) … “Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more”
How can one “cherry pick” when you are testing a scientific hypothesis where ANY “zero trend” of 15 years or more falsifies the hypothesis? Since the 10 models used were representative of the family of models that show moderate to strong warming, this period of non warming has essentially falsified everything but small beneficial warming.
If you choose a different starting date, say March 1998 or so, how negative is the trend?
Other than as fodder for debunking one another’s climate theories and at the most regrettable risk of offending our congenial host and assorted honored guests, could anyone kindly offer an answer for the “climate science” ignorant (such as myself) as to ANY practical advancement of the human condition that might have been accrued from the billion$ already invested in “climate science” research? I’m quite serious. It is, indeed, a “puzzlement” to me and would appreciate a forthright response.
Village Idiot says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:16 am
as a bit of an outlier when compared to other global temperature estimates.
=============
The problem is that daily and seasonal temperatures fluctuate 10 times greater or more that the “warming” signal over a century. As a result you can never be sure that the trend is due to signal or due to error.
For example, imagine that you are standing in a noisy room and someone is talking to you at a level that makes them hard to hear and even harder to understand. Can you trust what you believe they said to be accurate? Would you trust your future to this conversation?
Did they just say “sell your stocks” or “like your socks”. It makes a difference if you are going to act on what you heard them say.
The news must be anthema to the ‘climate experts’ at the University of East Anglia.
@ur momisugly Jim Bo –
Uh, does coming up with a more efficient way of extracting ethanol from corn count?
🙂
I find the argument that in a warming world the air will hold more water puzzling. When I was growing up we were in a cool phase and it always rained. When we were in that wee warm phase it rarely rained.
Was the water actually in the atmosphere during the warming and it just decided to keep a hold of it, or was the water just not there.
Jim Bo says:
March 4, 2014 at 6:26 am
could anyone kindly offer an answer for the “climate science” ignorant (such as myself) as to ANY practical advancement of the human condition that might have been accrued from the billion$ already invested in “climate science” research?
==============
A number of middle rate PhD’s that would have otherwise gone on to teach high school have been elevated to positions of great influence in the world’s economy.
Al Gore was able to able to expand his carbon footprint to the size of a small country, while telling the rest of us to be happy with our shrinking footprints.
Super rich people have been able to buy super expensive electric cars thanks to the generous tax donations of the poor.
Tens of thousands of elderly in cold climates have sacrifices their lives to energy poverty, thus helping halt the “population bomb”.
That is 122.5 dog years.
Dodgy Geezer: “This is a succinct illustration of the lowering of educational standards.”
I have no basis for arguing that educational standards haven’t fallen, but to me the current rarity of Latin and Greek in the schools is a sign of improvement.
I’d be interested in hearing how your experience may have differed, but my years of Latin and Greek have proved largely to be a waste. I have never profited from knowing the finer points of supine-particle or middle-voice usage. And I’m sure I got more out of Vergil and Homer translations than I did out of the originals.
I’m sure someone has done this, but based on the data on the link for Great Lakes Water levels found below, there seems to be some clear cycles in the water levels in those lakes even after people monkeying with what drains in and out. It seems intuitive to me that world climate would also be on some overall cycle that drives the regional level. Water levels began to really tank after 1998, about the same time as all the global warming fuss. But water levels were also very low from 1956 to 1967 but went up again after that. Any thoughts about a posting on this?
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/dbd/GLWLD1_0.html
here is another benefit
============
NASA funding for space exploration was diverted for a “trip to planet earth”. After landing on the moon, NASA now lacks even the capability to launch a human into orbit. having spent $150 billion to build the ISS as a first step in permanent space exploration, NASA now plans to de-orbit the station. which is no big deal since only the russians have the capability to go there. with events heating up in crimea, the US will be forced to eat crow before they can next service the ISS.
didn’t anyone ask, “what happens if the ruskies don’t play nice”, before the shuttle fleet was scrapped?
At this rate, we may see a 20 year flat lining within the next 18 months.
oh and yet another benefit
=========
with all the tough talk in the US and EU about Russia and Crimea, consider for a moment what happens to the EU if Russia turns off the gas. Is the EU going to make up the difference with windmills and solar panels?
If Russia turns off the gas the EU will quickly understand the benefits of fracking, but it will be much too late. Crimea will be a done deal and Putin a national hero. The US and EU will look like toothless old tigers, still able to make a noise, but lacking any real bite. This lesson will not be lost on the rest of the world.
“philjourdan says:
March 4, 2014 at 6:56 am
At this rate, we may see a 20 year flat lining within the next 18 months.”
Is that Warmist math:
17.5 plus 1.5 equals 20
🙂
@JohnWho – LOL! Nope. But the span of no warming increases at both ends as the lack of warming continues. So the starting point is pushed farther back – statistically – as it each present month shows no warming.
I am a long way from Lambda Calculus, but I can still do the simple stuff. 😉
Rumour hath ist that a certain Mann is now sueing an elderly Mother with the name of Nature for not complying to the rules he had so meticulously carved from tree rings into the form of a Hokkeyschtikk.