By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Seventeen and a half years. Not a flicker of global warming. The RSS satellite record, the first of the five global-temperature datasets to report its February value, shows a zero trend for an impressive 210 months. Miss Brevis, send a postcard to Mr Gore:
Why did none of the vaunted models predict this long hiatus, stasis, pause, halt, rest, interval, intermission, break, time out, vacation, furlough, gap, plateau, or flat spot?
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One bad year and they will have to explain why their models did not predict 20 years of global cooling, unless it is kept out of the newspapers in which case they will not have to explain anything.
Simplistically, the theory of CAGW (which, by the way, is the term that sceptics should always employ rather than playing into the hands of the warmists by talking about ‘climate change’) says that it is not just the warming effect of CO2 that is a problem but, more so, the amplification due to increased water vapour. But that amplification should be apparent whatever the cause of warming, whether CO2 or natural. Whenever sceptics point out the pause since 1998, the warmists counter that 1998 was a particularly strong El Nino year and that, because it is a natural forcing, it’s ‘cherrypicking’ to use that as a start point. But why didn’t the amplification kick in then?
I’d love to see that graph overlaid with all of the Wayne’s World post-hockery(hockey) ‘corrections’
AkA All models are wrong and here’s why ours were spot on after all!
Last time, even with periodically up-adjusted official global average temperature, the 1998 equivalent peak that occurred before in 1945 required a whopping 35 years to regain such lofty heights so that may mean a lack of further warming until 1998 + 35 = 2033, seen clearly here:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1955/to:2012/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1895/to:1954
Eric Worrall says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:42 am
“School children don’t know what global warming feels like… :-)”
Ha! Nice one Eric.
There must be a nice little presentation in that for the worlds school children, and their teachers, too.
HighTreason said on March 4th, 3:36am
“Now we hear IPCC chief Christiana Fugueres declaring that Democracy is not well suited to dealing with global warming. Chinese Communism is the best model.”
Up here in Canada, we have a fiberal politician by the name of Justin Trudeau. He’s got really nice hair and girls swoon when he smiles. He’s also leading in most polls. He was recently asked in a fluff interview, what country other than Canada he admires, and why. His response was;
“There is a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually turn their economy around on a dime and say we need to go green, we need to start, you know, investing in solar.”
Do these people meet at Starbucks every night? Why do they all seem to read from the same script all the time?
AGW alarmism continues despite this lack of warming, and –
Mother Nature – the biggest climate d*nier on the planet. The True Believers must be thinking of ways of sanctionionig her even now.
The thing that can go unnoticed is the fact that we’re really dealing in tenths of degrees. Also, what’s the point of all this if you don’t even know what a normal temperature “should” be?
Be very afraid of melting permafrost because of climate change could release “new viral threats”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26387276
“Since the 1970s, the permafrost has retreated and reduced in thickness, and climate change projections suggest it will decrease further.”
It doesn’t say “thankfully for 17 years and 6 months there has been no warming”.
luysii March 4, 2014 at 3:54 am
Go to this site http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/to:2014/plot/rss/from:1997/to:2014/trend
….and from the drop down list called ‘Data Source’ select your own dataset.
RSS and UAH are satellite measurements, HADCRUT3, HADCRUT4 and GISS are land based.
george e. smith says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:01 am
Well done. You have clearly explained the rules of the “RSS trend game”!
Since the zero-slope clearly only goes back as far as 1996, I thought I would look at the slope for some longer periods.
Last 20 years (from Feb 1994) 0.030 deg C/ decade
Last 30 years (from Feb 1984) 0.146 deg C / decade
Maximum trend (from Dec 1983) 0.148 deg C / decade
Whole data set (from Jan 1979) 0.125 deg C / decade
Although these longer trends are positive, none of them could really be described as particularly significant for the well-being of life on earth, and is more of a statistical exercise. During the last 12 months, the longer period trends have inched downwards with changes in the 3rd decimal place. For example, in July 2013, the trend for the whole data set was 0.129 deg C / decade. You can also question the validity of applying a linear fit to a dataset which is not behaving in a linear way, even though the maths is straightforward.
Congratulations to the administrators of this RSS data set for releasing the previous month’s figures so promptly. The others all keep us waiting for a couple of weeks at least.
Kurt in Switzerland says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:11 am
Are you sure you are using a valid data set to begin with?
Remember the 1930’s were warmer than today.
Do you think we should henceforth refer to warmists as ‘Flat Deniers’, or should we just go with ‘Climate Nazis’?
REPLY: I think we should take the high road, and not label them with either. While I disagree with Dr. Spencer’s use of ‘Climate Nazis’, I defend his right to say it. – Anthony
the machines are giving false readings…..the heat is in the oceans……never mind the facts green is ‘the right thing to do’…if we wait long enough it will go back to warming….
can i have my tax money back? Oh now i know why the co2ers wanted immunity from prosecution
the trouble is in the future it will discredit any science in the eyes of the public who will think its ‘just another global warmers’ scam?
I hear the alarmists are about to start sacrificing virgins in an attempt to trigger a big El Niño, so they can ‘prove’ global warming is happening and that the ‘pause’ is now definitely over.
Apparently, Mann, Trenberth and Hansen have consulted some specially designed computer models, which show this will work.
Hockey’s playing hooky!
Record snowfall in Scotland may allow skiing into summer,
Earlier in the week Iain Sykes, the founder of Nevis Range Ski Resort claimed that the resort had more snow than ever in the history of skiing there.
A HIGHLAND snowports resort which enjoyed its busiest day in a decade this week has unveiled plans to “ski into summer” if conditions allow.
eeek the start of a mini ice age.
A glacier was still in place in Scotland within the past 400 years,
Box of Rocks –
I’m using THEIR dataset and THEIR long-term trend analysis! Even so, the long-term trend is NOT threatening. It is FAR from their loud prognoses. Yet they keep saying the earth’s atmosphere will warm by 4ºC between now and 2100 (with a straight face, hoping nobody will challenge this “expert view”).
This is just silly. As is the bit about mitigation with restrictive CO2 emissions policies.
Kurt in Switzerland
No matter what the cherry pick, the question of how long a pause has to happen before it invalidates the models remains and those who are advocating the man-made catastrophic warming theory seem remarkably averse to answering it. It’s a very simple question that establishes that what they are doing is falsifiable and therefore science. Let’s say for the sake of argument that Mattfromdevon is correct. Does a 12 year pause invalidate the models? NOAA says no but they’re an outlier because they give a number, which I recall being 16 years. Then again, in 2008 when they gave that number, they said that they considered the question because of the decade long pause at that point.
The vast consensus of the CAGW scientific elite regarding these questions is shut up. They do not give a number. There is no consensus for measuring out how long a flat trend would take to invalidate their models, nor is it easy to find out how great a divergence between model and measurement would do the trick. This puts them into the category of the placebo effect and shamanism for as long as they refuse to answer such questions. Assertions are not science if they are not falsifiable.
Once the falsifiability standards are established, it’s mostly a waiting game to see if they’re ever breached. When they are, that particular model is falsified, just like any other scientific prediction.
Excellent article Christopher! When will people finally get the message that mankind is not destroying the world!
Slightly off-thread on the BBC radio news this morning there was an item about a 30,000 year old virus that had been discovered in the permafrost that had been brought back to life and had infected amoebae, (it was harmless to humans)! They then went on to tell us that due to climate change, as more permafrost melts we might start seeing smallpox viruses and other nasties coming out of hibernation to infect us. So now they have found another reason to stop something which is not happening in the first place and scare the cr@p out of the amoebae!
Obama says so, he is never wrong…..PS send more welfare to Ky. 25% of population on it.
How far back can you go before you get statistically significant warming? 17 years and 6 months is nice, but I would suggest you could at least go back to the Roman warm period. “No warming for at least 2000 years!” would be quite the slogan…
The funny part on it is that in these 17 years, despite wasting unbelievable amounts of money on renewables, CO2 concentrations not just didn’t stop growing, they accelerated. Regardless what temperatures are doing, somebody should finally notice that what we are doing about it is wrong and completely futile.