From the Virginia Institute of Marine Science and the department of unverifiable forecasts in our lifetime comes this model based projection.
Researchers say Ross Sea will reverse current trend, be largely ice free in summer by 2100
Antarctica’s Ross Sea is one of the few polar regions where summer sea-ice coverage has increased during the last few decades, bucking a global trend of drastic declines in summer sea ice across the Arctic Ocean and in two adjacent embayments of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica.
Now, a modeling study led by Professor Walker Smith of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science suggests that the Ross Sea’s recent observed increase in summer sea-ice cover is likely short-lived, with the area projected to lose more than half its summer sea ice by 2050 and more than three quarters by 2100.
These changes, says Smith, will significantly impact marine life in what is one of the world’s most productive and unspoiled marine ecosystems, where rich blooms of phytoplankton feed krill, fish, and higher predators such as whales, penguins, and seals.
VIMS professor Walker Smith in Antarctica.
Smith, who has been conducting ship-based fieldwork in the Ross Sea since the 1980s, collaborated on the study with colleagues at Old Dominion University. Their paper, “The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21st century,” appears in the Feb. 26 issue of Geophysical Research Letters. Smith’s co-authors are Mike Dinniman, Eileen Hofmann, and John Klinck.
Smith says “The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating the production of Antarctica’s sea ice overall and is biologically very productive, which makes changes in its physical environment of global concern. Our study predicts that it will soon reverse its present trend and experience major drops in ice cover in summer, which, along with decreased mixing of the vertical column, will extend the season of phytoplankton growth. These changes will substantially alter the area’s pristine food web.”
Researchers attribute the observed increase in summertime sea ice in the Ross Sea—where the number of days with ice cover has grown by more two months over the past three decades—to a complex interplay of factors, including changes in wind speed, precipitation, salinity, ocean currents, and air and water temperature.
But global climate models agree that air temperatures in Antarctica will increase substantially in the coming decades, with corresponding changes in the speed and direction of winds and ocean currents. When Smith and his colleagues fed these global projections into a high-resolution computer model of air-sea-ice dynamics in the Ross Sea, they saw a drastic reduction in the extent and duration of summer sea ice.
The modeled summer sea ice concentrations decreased by 56% by 2050 and 78% by 2100. The ice-free season also grew much longer, with the mean day of retreat in 2100 occurring 11 days earlier and the advance occurring 16 days later than now.
Also changed was the duration and depth of the “shallow mixed layer,” the zone where most phytoplankton live. “Our model projects that the shallow mixed layer will persist for about a week longer in 2050, and almost three weeks longer in 2100 than now,” says Smith. “The depth of the shallow mixed layer will also decrease significantly, with its bottom 12% shallower in 2050, and 44% shallower in 2100 than now.”
The extent and duration of ice cover in the Ross Sea depends on a complex interplay of factors, including changes in wind speed, precipitation, salinity, ocean currents, and air and water temperature.
For Smith, these changes in ice, atmosphere, and ocean dynamics portend major changes in the Antarctic food web. On the bright side, the decrease in ice cover will bring more light to surface waters, while a more persistent and shallower mixed layer will concentrate phytoplankton and nutrients in this sunlit zone. These changes will combine to encourage phytoplankton growth, particularly for single-celled organisms called diatoms, with ripples of added energy potentially moving up the food web.
But, Smith warns, the drop in ice cover will negatively affect several other important species that are ice-dependent, including crystal krill and Antarctic silverfish. A decrease in krill would be particularly troublesome, as these are the major food source for the Ross Sea’s top predators—minke whales, Adélie and Emperor penguins, and crabeater seals.
Overall, says Smith, “our results suggest that phytoplankton production will increase and become more diatomaceous. Other components of the Ross Sea food web will likely be severely disrupted, creating significant but unpredictable impacts on the ocean’s most pristine ecosystem.”
The authors were supported by the National Science Foundation grants ANT-0944254, ANT-0838948 and OCE-0927797.
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For the most current data on Antarctic sea ice, see the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
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Climate Scientists; making it up as they go along…since 1987
“Researchers say Ross Sea will reverse current trend, be largely ice free in summer by 2100”
And Commonwealth Bay?
Lord God in Heaven. The ‘recently’ observed increase in sea ice is NOT recent, where do they get this stuff? I only hope that I’m tottering around in 2100 (I’d be 149 by then) in 2100 to thumb my nose at this ‘science by pre-decisional models’
But none of those are -41 degrees though. Mod…
You’re right, I just checked Accuweather again and the south pole is now -42 degrees
“Overall, says Smith, “our results suggest that phytoplankton production will increase and become more diatomaceous. Other components of the Ross Sea food web will likely be severely disrupted, creating significant but unpredictable impacts on the ocean’s most pristine ecosystem.” ”
If the impacts are unpredictable, how do we know they will be significant?
Gee, I thought the models had already shown that the Antarctic sea ice should be melting already. Instead, it has been steadily increasing for the last 40 years. It is unprecedented. It is worse than we thought!
…it probably won’t be so toasty when the sun sets next month.
Another modeled science experiment?
I just don’t get it.
How good are we at even making predictions a year out, let alone 10, 20《》 with modeling climate.
We have a “study factory” based upon fundamental inaccuracy (climate modeling) at it’s core.
Yet we still throw money at it.
Without a prepaid product, this business would not exist, would it?
Time for a change in my book.
markstoval says: @ur momisugly February 27, 2014 at 2:47 pm
….I have a model right here on this computer that suggests that pigs will fly with ease by the year 2100….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Actually they have already been seen flying. Image That is why I used a butterfly net to catch them (aka potbelly piglets, I thought my vet was going to bust a gut he was laughing so hard.)
The other flying pig: Image
daviditron says: @ur momisugly February 27, 2014 at 3:18 pm
At some point there will be enough motivation to start auditing these NSF grants on behalf of the taxpayers who are forced to pay for this drek….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
At this point I am well passed the ‘I want an audit stage’ and have progressed to defund the whole freckin’ lot including all the Universities.
Nothing but dreck and brain washed idiots is shown for all that tax payer money.
This is academic la-la land stuff.
Eugene WR Gallun
I always thought that the basis for a scientific hypothesis was either that empirical data disagreed with current theories or that a novel attempt to falsify currently believed theories involved novel experimentation approaches.
This paper says that data emerging from climate models is the basis for new hypotheses.
This is like saying: ‘I’m sure that XXX fancies me. On that basis, I’ll buy her an iPad to show her my feelings for her.’
Of course, if XXX doesn’t fancy you, you end up looking rather stupid……..
The models aren’t even accurate to next week. How in the hell do they what’s going to happen in a 100 years?
I got to this part and stopped to do my own study.
“Our study predicts that it will soon reverse its present trend and experience major drops in ice cover in summer, which, along with decreased mixing of the vertical column, will extend the season of phytoplankton growth. These changes will substantially alter the area’s pristine food web.”
I’m done. Here’s my findings:
“My study predicts that there will be little to no significant change in the current trend while experiencing minor fluctuations in ice cover in summer involving varying time scales. Additional
fluctuations in the mixing of the vertical column will result in ebb and flow changes to the season of phytoplankton growth. These ongoing changes will preserve the area’s pristine food web.”
Who do I invoice?
Since the Holocene ended in AD 1998, I don’t think we need worry about the region’s “pristine food web,” except for maybe the polar bears (hat tip to TV personality Bill Nye for pointing that out recently).
Well, maybe the models tell us it will get warmer “down-under” some day, but today it has been snowing at Lake Ohau ski field in the Southern Alps of New Zealand, with today being the last day of official summer.
The Magellan Striate is close to freezing enough to block passage. Major shipping companies worldwide are worried about this because even the expanded Panama Canal cannot accommodate the giant container ships now sailing. This tutti fruity is worried about the Ross Sea where the likelihood of melting is slim and none and slim is on a gurney to the morgue. I guess we have to keep up with the enemy but reading this junk gets tiresome.
Same crap, different decade. 25 years ago when I bought into this nonsense they were saying by 2010 Antarctic would be red hot and there was going to be a runaway “greenhouse” effect (comparing it to a real greenhouse).
Nothing they say holds one iota of credibility. They just make it up as they go along. Frankly I’m sick of the whole affair.
His model would never predict it, but my data tells me that SH sea ice has turned the corner and grown since yesterday. ‘Scientific’ tourists, please leave now! Though a winter there would possibly teach you something worth knowing at last. Brett Keane, NZ
Is this a Monty Python sketch ?
Sorry to say, but James Hansen’s Congressional testimony and the below article in Popular Science (how could NASA scientists be wrong?) made me a True Believer for about 15 years, then I discovered Steve McIntyre’s original website (forget the name now), and began asking questions as he was banned from RC for simply asking questions. I thought it was odd that they would ban someone for asking for data. Prior to the internet we only had the MSM and the talking heads on network news. Who was I to doubt them and the climate scientists they hand picked to present the “truth”? Within a year it became clear there was much dishonesty, exaggeration and downright lying going on. I waited for the predictions to occur, but they didn’t happen, particularly the vaunted “greenhouse” effect.
Here is the magazine article that I remember reading way back then:
http://is.gd/pZdujx
All this latest pap does for me is reinforce my skepticism.
“But global climate models agree that air temperatures in Antarctica will increase substantially in the coming decades,”
Duh, where did they not predict substantial warming of air temperatures in coming decades?
However, I suspect they may be right about the ice. What they neglect is the corollary that the Arctic sea ice will increase proportionately.
Of course it will decrease in size , the only alternative is that it will keep growing until it takes over the world or stays the same. Sounds like the only option is that it shrinks until it grows again.
This is a great way to secure a rather useless occupation with a lifetime of grants, nearly a sure thing, unless he freezes to death first.
Who did the peer review on this paper? Chris Turney?
Sooooo, let’s see: we tell the model it will get warmer and then the model tells us that the ice will melt… no shit… that’s new… who would have known? And how much money did they get to come up with that? $955 THOUSAND!!! Almost ONE MILLION… I’d give my 10yr old a bag of candy and he’d tell me that ice melts when it gets warmer… What an utter waste of OUR money professor Walker Smith. You should be ashamed of yourself. Can we get a refund and instead use this money to improve our children’s education so we can learn them to become REAL scientists?! Can we get a refund and instead use this money to fight real problems such as childhood obesity!? Now please Mr. Smith take your research vessel, may we remind you it is paid and operated by OUR tax dollars!, and please get stuck in a far away corner of this planet; preferably the increasing Antarctic, so you can rethink your BS (bad science)