Above: Actual photo from Dr. Mann’s Facebook page courtesy Mark Steyn writing in: “The Mann I love”
LOL, gotta love the caveat “almost” anything. Redditers are welcome to ask Dr. Mann questions in this online forum today:
Science AMA Series: I’m Michael E. Mann, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Penn State, Ask Me Almost Anything! (self.science)
submitted 1 hour ago by MichaelEMann Distinguished Professor of Meteorology Penn State
I’m Michael E. Mann. I’m Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Penn State University, with joint appointments in the Department of Geosciences and the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI). I am also director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center (ESSC). I received my undergraduate degrees in Physics and Applied Math from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.S. degree in Physics from Yale University, and a Ph.D. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale University. My research involves the use of theoretical models and observational data to better understand Earth’s climate system. I am author of more than 160 peer-reviewed and edited publications, and I have written two books including Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming, co-authored with my colleague Lee Kump, and more recently, “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines”, recently released in paperback with a foreword by Bill Nye “The Science Guy” (www.thehockeystick.net).
“The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars” describes my experiences in the center of the climate change debate, as a result of a graph, known as the “Hockey Stick” that my co-authors and I published a decade and a half ago. The Hockey Stick was a simple, easy-to-understand graph my colleagues and I constructed that depicts changes in Earth’s temperature back to 1000 AD. It was featured in the high-profile “Summary for Policy Makers” of the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and it quickly became an icon in the climate change debate. It also become a central object of attack by those looking to discredit the case for concern over human-caused climate change. In many cases, the attacks have been directed at me personally, in the form of threats and intimidation efforts carried out by individuals, front groups, and politicians tied to fossil fuel interests. I use my personal story as a vehicle for exploring broader issues regarding the role of skepticism in science, the uneasy relationship between science and politics, and the dangers that arise when special economic interests and those who do their bidding attempt to skew the discourse over policy-relevant areas of science.
I look forward to answering your question about climate science, climate change, and the politics surrounding it today at 2 PM EST. Ask me almost anything!
==========================================================
Go here to ask “almost anything”: http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/1yj3o7/science_ama_series_im_michael_e_mann/
h/t to WUWT reader “devijvers”
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Can’t make it sorry. Have to sweep the walkway…
jayhd:
At February 21, 2014 at 8:25 am you say
In hope of encouraging others to read Steyn’s defense I quote para. 111 which is my personal favourite.
Richard
RaiderDingo says:
February 21, 2014 at 8:03 am
Does this article refute Steve McIntyre?
—
I started reading the article and got to the point where it stated, “While M&M clearly identified a mistake (or, at best, a poor methodological choice)…”
How can an article refute Steve McIntyre when it acknowledges that he “clearly identified a mistake”? That sounds more like a vindication to me.
How did he get an undergraduate degree in Applied Math when he doesn’t seem to know his Chi-Square from a T-square?
Steyn is now seeking at least $5 million in compensatory damages and another $5 million in punitive damages !!!! This could get VERY interesting!
I learned long ago that being a Professor Emeritus or “distinguished” professor means practically nothing. I’ve seen non-tenured PHd teaching assistants make such professors look like
complete dimwits. Here we have a goofball self-promoter who continually violates the laws of logic with pathetic ad hominem fallacies, a sure sign that Mann cannot refute counter arguments by the skeptics. To my knowledge, only Freudian psychiatry can compete with modern climatology as a science with no power to predict, yet embraced by such true believers (like Mann). Of course,
while Mann sets forth non-existent well-funded opponents motivated by money, we all know that the biggest motive of all, and one that guarantees a high income level, is the motive of public
adulation, which Mann so obviously holds very dear. If Mann were to admit that what climate change there is is either of an unknown origen, or nothing to get excited about, that would be the end of Mann’s chances of being a somebody. And THAT , my friends, is why this eccentric guy keeps believing what everyone with any sense can clearly see is utter nonsense. Or, at least, he still SAYS that he believes the BS.
We need some real legal heat, from an investment bank who bought into these various schemes with allegations of stock manipulation.
Tom says:
February 21, 2014 at 9:03 am
“I’ve noticed that Mann isn’t answering questions. It seems that a few Reddit trolls are answering all the qeustions for him in typical trollish fashion.”
He will be answering at 2pm ET, according to the article.
“distinguished” professor “, it usually means he or she is an expert at the grant rain dance.
If Mann lost his case against Tim Ball that would be big news. But the only place I see it is here: [snip – garbage from the slayers – Anthony]
and its treated as if its old news. Can this be relied upon? Does anyone have a second source?
REPLY: Finally, somebody with a lick of sense. The article by O’Sullivan is nothing more than a rah-rah moment for slayers. “bankruptcy” is only mentioned in the headline as a typical “suck you in” tactic. But he doesn’t cite any sources other than his own self delusional blather.
The reality is that Mann is well funded via the outfit that Scott Mandia founded, and there’s some deep green pockets there. See http://climatesciencedefensefund.org/
-Anthony
Keep your eyes peeled. If he doesn’t receive an appropriate number of Valentines, we will soon see a new peer-reviewed paper entitled: “Love found to decrease with global warming…”
As expected, an increase in solar activity has caused drop in temperature in the stratosphere and the troposphere above the Arctic Circle. Does polar vortex also will accelerate?
http://oi62.tinypic.com/2ikbcqc.jpg
Last night I was reading about Trenberth’s claim to be a Nobel Laureate, due to being involved in the IPCC’s work, and recalled that Mann made the same claim. I suddenly realized that, using their claim metrics, that I am also a Nobel Laureate. In 1988, the Nobel Awards committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to all Peacekeepers. I have served on a UN peacekeeping mission therefore, thanks to Kevin and Mike, I am eligible to make my claim to Nobel Laureate status. 😉
His monstrous ego should serve him well in the state pen. Oh wait, it won’t.
I can see it all now… former frozen- toed Canadian Dr. Tim Ball, happily keeping up with blog threads while working on his tan at the beach down in Margaritaville.
A legal defeat for Mann in DC could be a turning point in the struggle on the socio-political front. Warmism will start to look like a losing cause. Most people are followers. They want to shelter under the wing of winners. They’ll defect or at least distance themselves. Contrarians will start to get a little air-time.
”
Walt Allensworth says:
February 21, 2014 at 9:27 am
I would love to ask … “Dr. Mann – I’m trying to write software that will create a hockey stick shape from a white noise input. Can you show me how this is done?
”
Here’s how it can be done:
1. Create a bunch of sets of time series white noise.
2. Filter out the high frequency noise leaving only lower frequency variations.
3. Create a selection program that looks at the last N samples of each and selects those sets which either increase or decrease dramatically like the supposed global temperature value has done over the last 100 years or so.
4. Invert those sets where the last N samples have fallen dramatically.
5. Average all selected sets (using the inverted versions of falling ones) into one time series.
6. Plot out the results which will be a graph that is flat prior to the last N samples and rising steeply for the last N samples.
The blade exists because that was the selection criteria that only selected those sets increasing in the last N samples. The flat handle exists because when you average random samples with no systematic contribution, they average towards zero.
Of course Mann used real sample sets but evidently used this approach to select the sets that he used. It might even be possible that he used the world average instrument record T increase as the selection process which would be unrelated to the actual local temperatures experienced by the individual trees rather than the best estimates of the actual temperatures. Using trees not suitable for temperature estimates was evidently one of the factors. Also, using a yamal tree that was 6 standard deviations off of the normal probably helped contribute some as well. Regardless of the precise details mann used, it appears that he managed to filter out whatever weak temperature signal might have existed in the original tree datasets and succeeded in producing a result that was pure random noise until the selection criteria point of the set (last N samples) which always increased since decreasing ones were inverted. The proof of that is in the shape of the resulting graph.
**********
As for Steve McIntyre being disproven, not going to happen. Steve analyzed the data and showed errors in the activity. Steve’s results shows mann screwed up or falsified his work. Steve doesn’t prove that CAGW exists or doesn’t exist – but he does show that the supposed proof offered by mann is incorrect. AND so far(to my limited knowledge), mann has not presented a corrected result that actually provides evidence for CAGW or supports his claims from his faulty paper.
I just realized that the news of Dr. Ball’s triumph in the BC courts was reported by John O’Sullivan of P.S.I.
I withhold further comment in re this matter until substantive reporting from reliable sources is evident.
For those of you that keep wanting to post that article from “principia”…don’t. It will be snipped.
The article by O’Sullivan is nothing more than a rah-rah moment for Slayers. Note that “bankruptcy” is only mentioned in the headline as a typical “suck you in” tactic. But he doesn’t cite any sources other than his own self delusional blather.
The reality is that Mann is well funded via the outfit that Scott Mandia founded, and there’s some deep green pockets there. See http://climatesciencedefensefund.org/
-Anthony
Top Ten Gags about the Baggage Carried by Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick.
10. It takes the whole hockey team to carry it.
9. It needs its own sky cart.
8. If you cut the hockey stick into 1 foot sections, it would still not fit in the overhead compartment and would have to be checked.
7. William Connolley needed help to edit it all on Wikipedia.
6. Tamino does not have room for it all on his Open Mind blog.
5. The NAS Panel had to rent an extra storage room for it all.
4. The peer review process had to be redefined to handle it all.
3. If you hung it on the tip of the blade, it would turn it into a decline.
2. Andrew Montford had to write another book.
And finally, the number one gag about the baggage carried by Michael Mann’s hockey stick:
1. Congress would have to legalize hemp in order to make a biodegradable bag robust enough to carry it all.
This is Mann once again proving his not a public figure by pimping his ‘expertise’ on the internet for all to see?
OK. What is “Slayers”? I was all happy and such!
Hi, I’m basically an average kinda guy. Only a buffoon would think I have the charm of a Robert Redford. Sure, during my adolescence I had dreams of maybe being a movie star. But, even if I exhibited any kind of talent at acting the best I could do would be as a Danny Devito stand-in. I certainly don’t have the looks of a Brad Pitt or a Richard Geer. Of course, if my acting ability was stellar I could maybe be a Gene Hackman, who’s also quite average if not frumpy looking. But, then again, he’s also possessed of a commanding presence. I have the presence of a flee. And, did I say I have no acting ability? Yeah, so my road to fame can’t be through that route.
And my road to fame certainly can’t be through professional sports. Look at me: short? There goes basketball, especially since I can barely toss a crumpled up paper into the garbage can. Football? Look at me, what do you think? I’d be in intensive care the first time I got tackled.
And the Rock Star route is certainly out of the question. Look at those guys; they’ve got lots of hair. Heck, I hardly have any. Moreover, check out how thin and gaunt they are – all that partying. Me, I’m pudgy, and more than two beers and I’m puking. Geez, those groupies woulda been nice though – ‘cept they probably woulda’ snickered ’bout it to the tabloids the next morning.
Yeah, I’m just an average, short, pudgy, balding, run-of-the-mill kinda’ guy. I’m no prodigy. I possess no unique talents. I’ve uncovered no eternal truths. I’m not a towering intellect, a born leader. I’m just like just about everybody else.
And I hate that. I want to be famous, adored, remembered throughout history. And, like the vast majority of people, I possess nothing exceptional that would put my name on everybody’s lips. So I have to come up with a plan, a plan that can transform my common mediocrity into something of importance, something to realize my adolescent fantasies of greatness and fame.
I know; I have to save that which requires no saving (since I don’t, otherwise, have the courage to really jump in the fire and save something). I have to rescue that which needs no rescuing (ditto). Since I’m not a person that possesses something extra I must provide a perceptional elevation to the mediocre, the everyday, up to that of something of a crisis proportion so that my mediocrity, my averageness is sufficient to combat this alleged menace. That’s the trick; climate science here I come.
Anthony,
In Mann’s case I’m not entirely sure that one is allowed to pay judgements from a legal defense fund. You can from liability insurance but I’m not so sure about defense funds.
Someone should ask what year he was awarded the Nobel prize.