Basic premise of this paper: 1. let’s take fish out of their natural ocean environment, 2. put ’em in a tank where they are stressed, 3. crank up the temperature, 4. see if any fish die, 5. count dead fish, 6. assume natural adaptation is impossible 7. report news of future doom to the world via press release.
Via Eurekalert:
According to an international team of researchers, the rapid pace of climate change is threatening the future presence of fish near the equator. “Our studies found that one species of fish could not even survive in water just three degrees Celsius warmer than what it lives in now,” says the lead author of the study, Dr Jodie Rummer from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University.
Dr Rummer and her colleagues studied six common species of fish living on coral reefs near the equator. She says many species in this region only experience a very narrow range of temperatures over their entire lives, and so are likely adapted to perform best at those temperatures.
This means climate change places equatorial marine species most at risk, as oceans are projected to warm by two to three degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
“Such an increase in warming leads to a loss of performance,” Dr Rummer explains. “Already, we found four species of fish are living at or above the temperatures at which they function best.”
The team measured the rates at which fish use oxygen, the fuel for metabolism, across different temperatures – at rest and during maximal performance. According to the results, at warmer temperatures fish lose scope for performance. In the wild, this would limit activities crucial to survival, such as evading predators, finding food, and generating sufficient energy to breed.
Because many of the Earth’s equatorial populations are now living close to their thermal limits, there are dire consequences ahead if these fish cannot adapt to the pace at which oceans are warming.
Dr Rummer suggests there will be declines in fish populations as species may move away from the equator to find refuge in areas with more forgiving temperatures.
“This will have a substantial impact on the human societies that depend on these fish,” she says.
A concentration of developing countries lies in the equatorial zone, where fish are crucial to the livelihoods and survival of millions of people, including those in Papua New Guinea and Indonesia.
In an era of rapid climate change, understanding the link between an organism and its environment is crucial to developing management strategies for the conservation of marine biodiversity and the sustainable use of marine fisheries.
“This is particularly urgent when considering food security for human communities.”
‘Life on the edge: thermal optima for aerobic scope of equatorial reef fishes are close to current day temperatures’ by Jodie Rummer, Christine Couturier, Jonathan Stecyk, Naomi Gardiner, Jeff Kinch, Goran Nilsson and Philip Munday, appears in Global Change Biology.
Abstract
Equatorial populations of marine species are predicted to be most impacted by global warming because they could be adapted to a narrow range of temperatures in their local environment. We investigated the thermal range at which aerobic metabolic performance is optimum in equatorial populations of coral reef fish in northern Papua New Guinea. Four species of damselfishes and two species of cardinal fishes were held for 14 days at 29, 31, 33, and 34 °C, which incorporated their existing thermal range (29–31 °C) as well as projected increases in ocean surface temperatures of up to 3 °C by the end of this century. Resting and maximum oxygen consumption rates were measured for each species at each temperature and used to calculate the thermal reaction norm of aerobic scope. Our results indicate that one of the six species, Chromis atripectoralis, is already living above its thermal optimum of 29 °C. The other five species appeared to be living close to their thermal optima (ca. 31 °C). Aerobic scope was significantly reduced in all species, and approached zero for two species at 3 °C above current-day temperatures. One species was unable to survive even short-term exposure to 34 °C. Our results indicate that low-latitude reef fish populations are living close to their thermal optima and may be more sensitive to ocean warming than higher-latitude populations. Even relatively small temperature increases (2–3 °C) could result in population declines and potentially redistribution of equatorial species to higher latitudes if adaptation cannot keep pace.
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UPDATE: from comments –
Even relatively small temperature increases (2–3 °C) could result in population declines and potentially redistribution of equatorial species to higher latitudes if adaptation cannot keep pace.
But what’s this I see? Acclimatization of the damselfish mentioned above! Good grief, we can’t have this.
Abstract – 2013
Evidence for developmental thermal acclimation in the damselfish, Pomacentrus moluccensis
Tropical species are predicted to have limited capacity for acclimation to global warming. This study investigated the potential for developmental thermal acclimation by the tropical damselfish Pomacentrus moluccensis to ocean temperatures predicted to occur over the next 50–100 years. Newly settled juveniles were reared for 4 months in four temperature treatments, consisting of the current-day summer average (28.5 °C) and up to 3 °C above the average (29.5, 30.5 and 31.5 °C). Resting metabolic rate (RMR) of fish reared at 29.5 and 31.5 °C was significantly higher than the control group reared at 28.5 °C. In contrast, RMR of fish reared at 30.5 °C was not significantly different from the control group, indicating these fish had acclimated to their rearing temperature. Furthermore, fish that developed in 30.5 and 31.5 °C exhibited an enhanced ability to deal with acute temperature increases. These findings illustrate that developmental acclimation may help coral reef fish cope with warming ocean temperatures.
Centre of Excrement?
smells like a lot of BS to me…
I think Dr Rummer has drunk to much rummer from that well known sauce bundy op rum made just up the road from her.They say if you drink to much of it you will end up with a addled brain.And i think they are right.
> coral reefs near the equator
Anyone know what the natural variation is in those waters? How stable is the temp where they live?
Just curious
According to the HADSST3GL data set SST’s 1C in 100 years. Assuming that data set is correct, how many fish species have been driven extinct due to that global warming? (And rather curiously 2/3rds of that warming occurred before its been claimed CO2 could have had a measurable effect, i.e., post 1950’s.)
I’m surprised PETA is not all over these guys.
could result in population declines and potentially redistribution of equatorial species to higher latitudes if adaptation cannot keep pace……
roaring laughing……the fish move
This is the same kind of tank experiment they tried out for ocean acidification on shelled creatures. They pumped in huge amounts of co2 in a short period of time, published their results then got paid. What a pile of bat droppings – not realistic, not real world.
Maybe if PETA knit them all little sweaters….
Oh, wait a minute. The problem is heating?
Maybe the PETA people should get in touch with the people that make “Mrs. Paul’s Frozen Fish Sticks”?
Little bicycles could help the fish adapt more quickly…
I first went to Lagos Nigeria in February 1966. The temperature then was the same as now ~29C Historical Sea Temperature average with variance since 1984: averages ~27 with a high of just below 30C
http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Tarqua-Bay/seatemp
Link and scroll down a bit to the graph. This is particularly why Willis’s Thermostat Hypothesis resonates with me. The fishes will NEVER have to worry about 3-4 C warmer in tropical waters and I say this with betters than 99% confidence with almost 50 years of observation – Willis has shown that the max SST (in open waters) is 31C. The fish are 100% confident that they won’t have to cope with 3-4C warming – they’ve had thousands of years of observation.
Now cooling is something else! The Latin American Herald had this story today
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=361753&CategoryId=14919
“Cold Wave Kills 6 Million Fish in Eastern Bolivia
LA PAZ – Authorities in the eastern Bolivian province of Santa Cruz declared an alert following the death of 6 million fish from the unusually cold weather gripping the country in recent weeks. The provincial government said the fish died in the Grande, Pirai and Ichilo rivers that run through the tropical region. This is an “environmental catastrophe” brought on by the lowest temperatures registered in Santa Cruz in nearly half a century, Gov. Ruben Costas told reporters.
He said that environmental personnel who visited the disaster areas found that the three rivers are highly polluted by dead fish, and he warned locals not to use those waters.”
What has happened to the once unherdable cats called Australians! Nearly every global warming article published these days comes out of this country, while the Team in US and Europe are sitting in shock with the pause and even Dr. Suzuki has thrown in the towel. It seems that the Ship of Fools has triggered a bonanza of this nonsense. You Ozzies are going to have to form a mobile protest unit to crush this embarrassing craziness! I’m serious. National pride demands it.
added note: I believe this frenzy of publication has been “ordered” by the lefties who got kicked out of office. It has suspicious numbers and timing.
I kept Maintained some very successfull Reef tanks in Phoenix Arizona where my only method of cooling was an evap. Just try to keep the temps under 35. Dang, my water temps sometimes went to 40! The only organism I ever needed to get rid of because of temp was a Sebae Anemone.
This paper is complete nonsense, because THERE ARE NO DAMSELFISH!! They went extinct in the last glacial period when the water temperature fell below their thermal range.
Oh to be a tropical fish – overnight where I live in Hong Kong temperatures dropped to about 5 celsius. No heating in our apartment at all.
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/ts/index.htm
‘One species was unable to survive even short-term exposure to 34 °C.’
That one statement alone, shown above, might give the game away. I doubt these scientanistas have diddly squat in the way of experience keeping fish. Almost no fish (maybe goldfish can) can survive a rapid change of temperature of more than 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit. That change won’t usually kill them right away, but rest assured they’ll be dead within 2 days. Moreover, aquarists have known for probably 100 years that tropical fish, freshwater or marine, do not live in water temperatures that are considered tropical. Tropical freshwater fish live in temperatures of 68-74 degrees Fahrenheit. Marine tropicals generally live in water of about 78-82 degrees Fahrenheit. 34 degrees centigrade is equivalent to 93 degrees Fahrenheit. Yeah, right. We’re gonna see those temperatures in the reefs – not in our lifetimes. If they’re going to make claims about living organisms they damn well ought to learn how to keep
them in captivity first.
FIRST… So, er, I thought the warming at the equator was supposed to be minor as compared to the mid and high latitudes. So fish living near the equator will not experience near the temperature rise (if you even believe in CAGW) than fish at mid- and high-latitudes.
SECOND … fish have fins and can swim to colder / deeper water, shade etc. Not in a pot heated by a Bunsen burner, mind you. Details, details.
Is this serious research or is someone trolling? Whoever funded this might be interested in my frog/saucepan/boiling water project.
Gary Pearse says: @ur momisugly February 11, 2014 at 3:06 pm
added note: I believe this frenzy of publication has been “ordered” by the lefties who got kicked out of office. It has suspicious numbers and timing.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
That was what the Ship of Fools was about. A PROPAGANDA MISSION. Chris (Tmas) Turkey disappeared for 2 1/2 hours after being ordered to return to the ship. Any bets it was for photo Ops of Green party elect Janet Rice by the BBC and Guardian reporters?
So far this year we have had two idiotic papers from the University of New South Wales and the Penguin paper and now this one.
Luckily Mother Nature stomped all over the propaganda mission that was to tie all the papers together and she has kept on stomping here in the USA and Canada and parts of Europe, China, Middle East and else where.
Jimbo says:
February 11, 2014 at 9:05 am
I have found the key word – “IF”
Four species of damselfishes and two species of cardinal fishes were held for 14 days at 29, 31, 33, and 34 °C, which incorporated their existing thermal range (29–31 °C)……….
Even relatively small temperature increases (2–3 °C) could result in population declines and potentially redistribution of equatorial species to higher latitudes if adaptation cannot keep pace.
“IF” global surface temperatures do rise 2–3 °C.
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Ah, these gals put the IF in “scientIFic”.
What are the annual and diurnal temperature variations in a reef environment? Do they really never vary more than 4C?
The temperature transect goes from 0°C at 90° Latitude to 30°C at 0° latitude. A distance of 10,000 km. To avoid a thermal shock of 3°C the fishies must move 1000 km over 86 years. Over 11 km per year. This should be the easiest thing in the world to track. The reefs should give up their dead in short order.
I think the poor fish are in more danger of becoming extinct because of dodgy researchers.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/05/climate-craziness-of-the-week-climate-change-bigger-waves-fish-have-to-swim-harder/
the highest recorded water temp was Darwin at 29.2….they start there and go up
92F is used to clear out some parasites
vigilantfish says: February 11, 2014 at 4:27 pm
“IF” global surface temperatures do rise 2–3 °C.
This was probably a primary school biology experiment, or at least proposed and designed by a primary class.
But they neglected a few things: Global surface temperature is not tropical ocean temperature. And as the world supposedly warms, the tropics remain at much the same temperature, just expanding in extent.
Bearing also in mind the heat capacity of the oceans: Supposedly Trenberth’s ‘missing heat’ has managed to heat the top 2,000 metres of the world’s oceans by 0.065 °C over a period of 55 years, if you can accept such precision in measurement exists. And supposedly 1 °C of ocean warming is equivalent to 60 °C of atmospheric warming ( “..if all that energy was suddenly released to the atmosphere… etc etc”)
So it’s gonna take a helluva long time* to heat those tropical seas by 2-3 °C, more so if you consider Willis’ tropical thermostat mechanism.
(*well known scientific unit of measure of time)
Please Mr Abbott, investigate how much funding these gooses are getting.
A dollar is one too many…
http://www.coralcoe.org.au/news/reef-fish-find-its-too-hot-to-swim