By Paul Homewood
Last July, the Met Office published the second in a series of papers, discussing the recent pause in global warming.
On page 6, they state:
The start of the current pause is difficult to determine precisely. Although 1998 is often quoted as the start of the current pause, this was an exceptionally warm year because of the largest El Niño in the instrumental record. This was followed by a strong La Niña event and a fall in global surface temperature of around 0.2oC (Figure 1), equivalent in magnitude to the average decadal warming trend in recent decades. It is only really since 2000 that the rise in global surface temperatures has paused.
Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/0/Paper2_recent_pause_in_global_warming.PDF
They accept that the pause is unequivocal, certainly since 2000. They also seem to accept that the pause really started in 1998, although the period 1998-2000 was complicated by El Nino/La Nina episodes. (It is worth noting here that the two La Nina years of 1999/2000 more than offset the 1998 El Nino year – the average temperature of the three years together come out lower than 1997. It is arguable, therefore, that 1998 is a fair start point).
But, regardless of the exact start point, they fully accept that the pause is real and long lasting.
So why, in January 2012, in response to an article in the Mail by David Rose, did they issue a press release saying:
Today the Mail on Sunday published a story written by David Rose entitled “Forget global warming – it’s Cycle 25 we need to worry about”.
This article includes numerous errors in the reporting of published peer reviewed science undertaken by the Met Office Hadley Centre and for Mr. Rose to suggest that the latest global temperatures available show no warming in the last 15 years is entirely misleading.
Instead, they themselves fell back on the misleading “hottest decade ever” red herring.
However, what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850.
And they were at it again a few months later in October that year. Again David Rose had published an article, pointing out the pause in global warming.
The Met Office had this to say:
An article by David Rose appears today in the Mail on Sunday under the title: ‘Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it’
It is the second article Mr Rose has written which contains some misleading information, after he wrote an article earlier this year on the same theme – you see our response to that one here……
The linear trend from August 1997 (in the middle of an exceptionally strong El Nino) to August 2012 (coming at the tail end of a double-dip La Nina) is about 0.03°C/decade, amounting to a temperature increase of 0.05°C over that period, but equally we could calculate the linear trend from 1999, during the subsequent La Nina, and show a more substantial warming.
As we’ve stressed before, choosing a starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading.
So, who is actually doing the misleading? If the Met Office now openly accept that the pause is real, and started at least 13 years ago, why did they try so hard to cover this fact up two years ago?
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The “hottest decade ever” line was used by Tim Yeo in the DECC committee yesterday. It wasn’t particularly persuasive there either.
Perhaps the MET Office and Tim Yeo share common standards with respect to impartial evaluation of the evidence?
What is that for a (met office) logo? Looks suspiciously like a hockey stick to me, all nice and green too.
Steve (Paris) says:
January 29, 2014 at 12:15 am
What is that for a (met office) logo?
They copied it from a pasta shop. It’s their green tagliatelle.
These fanatics will go to any lengths for their cause. However, the Met Office’s propaganda is far less damaging than Obama’s latest move: to force carbon reduction on industry by executive order.
It’s the classic warmist mistake: ignore or deny the plain truth until it becomes so controversial that they can’t deny it anymore. They thought when David Rose first reported on the Hiatus a simple character assassination would surely be enough. It wasn’t, that’s why they now have to back down. Since they’re in their ivory tower they’re of course going to pretend everything is fine.
Here in the UK the Met Office is simply seen as a big joke, what my elders used to call ‘A Music Hall joke’. Everyone takes the mick (pokes fun) out of them. They are so incredibly inept at getting our weather right that it’s actually really funny. I’m a tradesman, and I have worked in the home of a guy from the Met Office. When I asked him his occupation, he told me, then apologised.
“Why did Met Office try to cover Up ‘the pause’ two years ago?”
Because it’s not real. The climate is wrong, the models prove it.
The answer is of course that the Met Office put protecting their ‘global warming stance’ and political patronage above reporting the truth. Yet another once trusted institution showing that it is no longer worthy of the public trust.
The Met Office has been unfit for purpose for years, it is time for it’s demise!
If you live in the UK their weather forecasts are a joke, they are always wrong! I clean the car on a Saturday based on a 0% chance of precipitation, just as I have dried it, the Heavens open. An hour wasted, they are totally useless.
To be fair, it’s difficult to predict the weather, the problem is that the weather occurs too soon after the prediction. It’s much easier to predict the climate because that’s 30-50+ years away which is the length of a whole career.
The climate realists need to bury the “warmest decade” image, by stating that a man in his 50s is still the tallest he has been in his life, even though he stopped growing 30 years ago.
May I just echo how poor the MetOffice is at actual forecasting. Just last weekend, the forecast in my location, was for rain to die out overnight and the following day to be cold but clear. The following day it rained almost solidly all day! These are 12 to 24 hour forecasts – and they can’t even get those 50% right! Nowaday noone expects the Metoffice to predict beyond what they can see in front of their own noses!
In the UK, they are indeed considered to be a massive joke – but not a pleasant one at that – indeed, they are a complete and expensive waste of taxpayers money. (But then, aren’t most government ‘departments’?)
The MetOffice is always right because, you know, they only rely on peer-review sources. It is the past that is in denial.
There could be a Yes Minister TV series on the Met office.
http://i29.photobucket.com/albums/c274/richardlinsleyhood/HansenUpdated_zpsb8693b6e.png
This updated Hansen graphic with new data from WFT says 1998 was the turning point
Have they now reached the Meteopause? Does this explain their irrational behaviour?
The Met Office has yet to release this press release…….”The Met Office has recently released some misleading and quite cherry picked rubbish regarding a “pause” in global warming. In July of 2013 the Met Office wrote about a pause starting sometime around the year 2000. Well, the Met Office also wrote about (twice…links somewhere) the “pause” not being real and we rather put a MrRose down hard with those two press releases. So, in summary, that’s all the Met Office has to say! Cheers.”
“It is only really since 2000 that the rise in global surface temperatures has paused.”
Since 2008 I’ve been telling everyone prepared to listen that I first noticed the change in jet stream behaviour from the previous zonal/poleward behaviour to more meridional/equatorward behaviour in 2000.
because they are propagandists?
a vernon hills, Illinois company with a wicked sense of humour!
28 Jan: PR Web: Thermosoft Offers Radiant Floor Heat as Solution to Global Cooling
This winter it became perfectly clear that mankind’s effort to solve the global warming crisis is a mission accomplished. Now is the time, and Thermosoft is the company, leading the way to winning the war against global cooling with energy-efficient radiant floor heat.
Never was it more evident that the mission against global warming was fait accompli than when the December 2013 Australasian Antarctic Expedition of global warming scientists verified the existence of abundant levels of ice in Anarctica. The enduring photo of the two-ton, ice-strengthened ship, the Akademik Shokalskiy, stuck in the Antarctic ice, demonstrated global warming’s retreat as convincingly as the adventuresome polar bear, cruising adrift a tip of the iceberg, alerted millions to its inconvenience.
With the global warming bump-in-the-road behind us, now is the time to move forward to the real crisis plaguing humanity. Global cooling’s debilitating effects have been felt across America during this winter’s record low temperatures and high snowfalls. The absolute truth is that there’s nothing that can be done about the weather, but there is something that can be done to defeat global cooling and keep warm, comfortable, healthy and in good spirits.
Don’t neglect the feet. One of the primary ways to keeping warm, comfortable and healthy is keeping the feet warm. There is no better way to keep the feet and the whole body warm than with Thermosoft’s electric radiant floor warming…
Speaking about Thermosoft’s energy efficient electric radiant floor warming systems coupled with the latest energy-saving programmable floor thermostats, Thermosoft’s President and CEO, Eric Kochman stated, “Together we can [make the world warmer]. We are definitely in the right place at the right time to solve global cooling. Thermosoft’s mission is to warm the world through education, dedication and floor heat installation.” …
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/01/prweb11518657.htm
I assume that’s a rhetorical question.
Au contraire, I find the Met Office weather forecast wonderful. But I am on the coast so I can see exactly where I am on their map. I note the time when the rain arrives or departs and you can almost set your watch by it.
To call the halt in global warming ‘the pause’ implies knowledge that it will resume in the future. Better to term it ‘the halt’ – for that’s what it is.
The climate research activity of the Met Office should be privatised immediately. The weather forecasting part should be reduced to a small team of 20 – 30 competent meteorologists with appropriate support staff.
Flydlbee says:
January 29, 2014 at 1:30 am
Have they now reached the Meteopause? Does this explain their irrational behaviour?
No. It’s the Metopause – characterised by the expectation of permanent hot flushes.
Ken Hall says:
The climate realists need to bury the “warmest decade” image, by stating that a man in his 50s is still the tallest he has been in his life, even though he stopped growing 30 years ago.
===
Bad example, he’s probably slightly shorter than he was in his prime. Especially if he has been involved in physical work , not sitting on his butt in an office drinking coffee and doing climate modelling.
Also everyone considers themselves a “climate realist” ( Dana Nuttercelli included ) , it’s just conceited way of saying “I’m right. Now we’ve got that established, listen to me and educate yourself”.