Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, says:
The global temperature in 2013 was 0.486C above the 1961-1990 average based on the HADCRUT measure, figures released by the Met Office show. So far this century, of 14 yearly headline predictions made by the Met Office, 13 have been too warm.
This makes 2013 provisionally the 9th warmest year in data which goes back to 1880.
This compares with a headline anomaly prediction of 0.57C.
It means that so far this century, of 14 yearly headline predictions made by the Met Office Hadley centre, 13 have been too warm.
It’s worth stressing that all the incorrect predictions are within the stated margin of error, but having said that, they have all been on the warm side and none have been too cold.
The 2013 global temperature also means that the Met Office’s projection that half the years between 2010 and 2015 would be hotter than the hottest year on record (which on the HADCRUT measure was in 1998), issued around the time of the Copenhagen climate conference in 2009, is already incorrect.
The Met Office believe one of the reasons for this ‘warm bias’ in their annual global projections is the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth.
They also suggest another reason why the global surface temperature is falling short of their projections is because some of the heat is being absorbed in the ocean beneath the surface.
Full story at the BBC
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Do the Brits have no shame. This looks and sounds like rubbing their nose in it. Oh wait, we have John Holdren. And the French have Hollande, out somewhere on the back of a motorbike.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2014/01/08/polar-vortex-explained-2-minutes
The Mental Office say that they have a “lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth“. Here is other observational data on “Daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel, plotted with daily climate values calculated from the period 1958-2002.”
2013 summer was the coldest on the DMI recored since records began in 1956.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png
Check each year below.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
My apologies if my memory fails me but I vaguely recall that Arctic sea ice volume and extent were up around 50% on 2012. Maybe the heat went deep in a flash.
Eugene WR Gallun says:
January 28, 2014 at 10:29 am
Under British socialism even the weather must be reported in such a way that it supports government policy.
So it seems to me, an American.
Eugene WR Gallun
Difference between a socialist and a capitalist:
A socialist sees an old lady fall down and break her leg so he takes her to hospital. A capitalist sees an old lady fall down and break her leg so he takes her to hospital. He then sends her a bill for transportation.
Clearly singing from the same hymn!
(To the tune of Jesus loves me)
Temps are warming, this I know,
For the Models tell me so,
We feel cold but it is warm
They are true,we know its so!
(Chorus)
Yes,temps are warming!
Yes,temps are warming!
Yes,temps are warming!
The Models tell me so!
“One of the reasons for this ‘warm bias’ in their annual global projections is the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth.”
Surely they never said that!? That just has to be a misquote. Journalists are even sloppier than climate scientists so my money is on a misrepresentation of what they really said.
to richardscourtney, from an American: Your “conservatives” are our Socialists.
UKIP is the only party I see that is even close to a somewhat “conservative” party, and even they still like big government, they just want it to do different things.
Surely everyone knows by now how to read the met office predictions correctly , its the opposite of what they say , They started doing this in the last war to confuse any enemy agents listening in and it was so successful there has been no need to change it – so cold is warm , wet is dry etc etc .simples !!!
Sweet Old Bob says:
January 28, 2014 at 11:11 am
Brilliant!
I see “The global temperature in 2013 was 0.486C” and I don’t need to read any further to know that it is complete and utter pseudo-scientific tosh.
My professor would have a very long go at me when as a student, I presented temperature reading with three numbers after the dot, when we were running experiments.
Measuring Global Average temperature to the thousandth of a degree has no meaning, and those presenting it have no idea what they are writing about.
“The Met Office believe one of the reasons for this ‘warm bias’ in their annual global projections is the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth.
and their lack of ability to adjust the data in HadCru 4 high enough. BUT don’t worry 2014 will be the hottest year evah evah as soon as our HadCru 5 is adjusted for hidden warmth down in our computer rooms.
How about “DAFT”–Digitally Advanced Forecasting Technology…?
Jimbo says:
January 28, 2014 at 11:09 am
The Mental Office say that they have a “lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth“.
This is a true classic is it not? “We know the arctic is the fastest warming place on earth because we can’t measure it.”
Even Monty Python would be proud of that one.
Tom Trevor says:
January 28, 2014 at 10:19 am
“They sound like Fozzie on Happy Days, they can’t say they were wrong”
Fozzie was on Sesame Street. Although he did favor a Pork Pie Hat and, coincidence piled on top of coincidence, Porky Pies seem to correlate well with the output of the UKMO.
“The Met Office believe one of the reasons for this ‘warm bias’ in their annual global projections is the lack of observational data in the Arctic circle, which has been the fastest warming area on earth.”
OK so what was their prediction for the areas they do have data for. To predict for something they can’t measure seems a bit daft to me, particulrly if it is funded by the tax I pay. Or as they knew the could use this excuse if they were wrong. If their predictions had matched reality do you think they would have said that they were actually wrong becuse they don’t have arctic records? Of course not. I want my tax back.
T.
Small correction on my last comment.
“2013 summer was the coldest on the DMI recored since records began in 1956.”
“2013 summer was the coldest on the DMI recored since records began in 1958.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/28/bbc-meteorologist-met-office-global-forecasts-too-warm-in-13-of-last-14-years/#comment-1552558
So they got one year right then?
“They (the BBC) also suggest another reason why the global surface temperature is falling short of their projections is because some of the heat is being absorbed in the ocean beneath the surface.”
In school we (including BBC types I guess, unless they were purely arts orientated) were taught
that :-
Warm air rises up displacing colder air which moves downwards. So, warm air at the sea surface would tend to rise, away from the sea.
And also:-
Warm water rises up displacing colder water which moves downwards.
Isn’t is simpler, and more honest that think that the atmosphere is cooling?
Steve from Rockwood says:
January 28, 2014 at 10:53 am
“Even stupider question: If it only warms where most people don’t live, is it even warming?”
Slight modification: “If it only warms where there are no sensors, is it even warming?”
The answer is an unequivocal “No!”
SARC ON /
I failed my exam yesterday because I am convinced my paper went missing in the basement OR because I never observed the teacher marking it OR………………the dog ate it………..OR…….
Meanwhile, the Met Office are forecasting another year of no warming in 2014.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/temperature-standstill-forecast-to-continue-in-2014/
Yep, even tossing a coin or a dart throwing chimp would have performed better. In fact why not replace the rats at the Met Office with bonobos.
Polite conversation in the UK usually starts with discussion about the weather.
Now you Yanks have been enlightened, the reason we talk about the weather a lot is because the Met Office weather forecast is so crap a more accurate method is to look out of the window in the morning or be out in it. : > )
The Met Office is a quasi governmental organisation, it won’t be got rid of easily. The best we could hope for is a changing of the green/red guard who steer policy.
Unfortunately all of the British mainstream political parties and most of the British establishment are left of centre and committed to the Global Warming/Climate Change/Climate Disruption/Weather Weirding (oh how I wish I’d made that last one up!) meme.
Peter Melia says:
Warm water rises up displacing colder water which moves downwards.
Isn’t is simpler, and more honest that think that the atmosphere is cooling?
Sort of… As water cools, it gets more dense, until around 4°C. Then it rapidly becomes less dense. Something to do with hydrogen bonding I think. So it is a little more complicated that that.
However, sea water does not act like fresh water. Sea water is more like you explained. It continues to become more and more dense, until it freezes (around -4 °C), then forms into the less dense ice and floats.
Here is a good graphic
http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/gifimages/dens.gif
This makes 2013 provisionally the 9th warmest year in data which goes back to 1880.
According to my numbers, it was 8th warmest. That is unless they include the uncertainty in their measurement. If we assume an uncertainty of +/- 0.1, then the 0.486 could be between 0.386 and 0.586. In that case, the warmest 15 years are in a statistical tie as shown below.
1 {2010, 0.547},
2 {2005, 0.539},
3 {1998, 0.531},
4 {2003, 0.503},
5 {2006, 0.495},
6 {2009, 0.494},
7 {2002, 0.492},
8 2013 0.486
9 {2007, 0.483}
10 2012 0.448,
11 {2004, 0.445},
12 {2001, 0.437},
13 {2011, 0.406},
14 1997, 0.392
15 2008 0.388