Steve McIntyre has taken the time to create a well annotated and sourced timeline on the #spiritofmawson expedition.
He writes:
Like many others, I’ve been intrigued by the misadventures of the Ship of Fools. Dozens of tourist vessels visit the Antarctic without becoming trapped by ice. So it’s entirely valid to inquire into why the one tourist vessel led by a “climate scientist” became trapped by ice.
The leader of the expedition, Chris Turney (also a secondary Climategate correspondent and co-signer of Lewandowsky’s multisignatory letter in the Conversation), claimed that the incident could not have been predicted. He said that they were trapped by a sudden “breakout” of multi-year ice (“fast ice”) that had previously been part of the ice shelf and that there was no way that they could have anticipated this. Turney’s claim has been uncritically accepted by the climate community e.g. Turner of the British Antarctica Survey here.
However, like other recent claims by Turney, this claim is bogus. In fact, Turney was trapped by sea ice that had been mobile throughout December 2013. This can be easily seen by examining readily available MODIS imagery (see MODIS here) leading up to the incident, as I’ll do in today’s post.
Read it all here:
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Carnwennan says:
January 15, 2014 at 12:49 pm
I almost feel sorry for them. Steve McIntyre to warmists must feel like the Eye of Sauron.
—-l
I see him more as Gandalf with Foe-Hammer – these are not innocent little hobbits on a noble quest 🙂
Of course its all’ denialist lies ‘ it all went wrong . he always planned to get stuck down there because the ice was melting and he has the models to prove it
As for the BAS , they have really dropped one by rushing in to support the fool , I guess it was a sad little attempt to save face for ‘the cause ‘ by coming up with a desperate way they could blame AGW.
his climate models said there should be no polar ice left, so why check!
The whole episode; and I’m glad that all the crews – AS, Snow Dragon, and Aurora Australis (which I visited in the 90s) – appear to be safe, with their ship.
The best outcome I (all of us) can reasonably expect.
But – a minor point to some – it highlights the need to keep a very close eye on what is happening beyond the double-glazed window (or port hole).
Out there, nature [Capitalise? Virtually if you wish] runs the show.
Nature runs the show.
Cameron, D., of Britannia’s Primary School for Elected Beginners, has told a Commons Liaison Committee that Britain is in ‘no danger’ of blackouts.
A ‘risk Britain can’t afford to take’ – well, agreed – but . . . . . .
Nature will decide if we get blackouts . . .
With candles in my drawer, remembering past Labour Governments.
I’m an old fart, who had a Liberal Poster in my window in 1964 and 1966 – Robert Goodall. I’d outgrown that by 1970 – long before I left school or went to sea.
And flashlights round the house, and a battery radio.
Just in case.
And I live in London.
Yeah, THAT London, host of the 2012 Olympics. . . . . . . . . . .
Make of that what you will.
Auto
J. Herbst says:
Spirit of Mawson, this could be a new Longdrink. Or should it called Tequila Icefield? Any idea for recipes?
Fools Paradise: 1 nip Vodka (for the Russion crew); 1 nip White Rum (for the pseudo-sailors); small piece of Ginseng root (for the Chinese helicopter); 1 nip Creme de Menthe (for the refreshing blizzard); Icecubes (preferably pack ice); Topped with beaten eggwhite (for the fluffy nonsense espoused).
Posts 1,2 and 4 are the same person, I do not see three different people writing “Prophessor”, socks be bad.
Theo Goodwin says:
Prophessor? He defended his actions by making a claim whose falsity was a matter of official record. He is a Phesser.
Nancy (my English teaching wife) suggests he should be a conphessor.
There is a phrase for this type of behavior in aircraft accidents.
Per:
http://www.aopa.org/Pilot-Resources/Safety-and-Technique/Accident-Analysis/Accident-Statistics/EPilot-Reports/ePilot-ASF-Accident-Reports-Get-Homeitis.aspx
There’s no place like home, but…
Poor judgment combined with a strong desire to get home can be deadly.
and,
“The NTSB determined the cause of this accident to be the pilot’s decision to takeoff and attempt VFR flight into IMC conditions.
VFR flight into IMC continues to be a silent, deadly killer. Although few accidents are a result of VFR into IMC, almost all of them are fatal.”
==========
The huts were the destination (get homeitis), then you need the path out of there.
It all worked out well, rescue teams got to practice, the rescuee’s got taught a lesson.
I don’t imagine anyone will be funding another shipload of such unprepared “scientists”.
Right 🙂
This is a very interesting read, thanks for linking to it.
J. Herbst says:
January 15, 2014 at 1:22 pm
“Three years ago Global Warming killed the same penguins because of too little ice. Global Warming is a bitch, isn’t it?”
Well, it’s global, so it’s…
bi-polar.
Oh jeez, let’s just come out and say it. No point in wrapping it in cotton wool.
He believed his own bullshit.
“J. Herbst says:
January 15, 2014 at 12:39 pm
More messages from the Australasian Antarctic Expedition. Seems to be a journey they never have dreamt of… But they will bear it in the spirit of Mawson.
http://www.sott.net/article/271975-Hilarious-Akademic-Shokalskiy-makes-it-back-to-port-spiritofmawson-ship-of-fools-still-stuck-in-Antarctica
BTW, Spirit of Mawson, this could be a new Longdrink. Or should it called Tequila Icefield? Any idea for recipes?”
Here’s one from wildturkeybouron.com.AU (local, even….)
http://www.wildturkeybourbon.com.au/cocktail-recipes/
PASS THE TURKEY
45ml Wild Turkey 101 Bourbon
60ml apple cider
1 tbs cranberry jelly
1 sprig fresh sage
1 sprig fresh thyme
Muddle sage and thyme with apple cider. Add ice, top with Wild Turkey and cranberry jelly. Shake well, strain over ice in a glass rimmed with turkey jus and breadcrumbs.
seems especially fitting because of the holidays, and
Apple, because of the preponderance of devices in their “meda center”,
Sage, because they needed one, and either didn’t have one or ignored them,
Thyme, because they were running out of it (and ignored it),
Jelly, because it’s also lonely for its peanut butter,
Breadcrumbs, because that’s what would have been left of the food in a few weeks, and
Wild Turkey, well, because…..
and maybe this one I thought up (but wouldn’t dare drink 🙂 )….
Spirit of Mawson
52 parts Wild Turkey
22 parts finest Vodka
Yo Ho Ho and a bottle of Rum
with a twist of Olive(r)
LOTS of fast and movable ice, stirred, and perhaps shaken, as well…..
I do love the Guardian’s coverage of this whole event. They so far have resisted placing any blame on Turney for the problems the expedition found themselves in.
But I do have to wonder about the sub-editors back home in Blighty.
One the recent pieces from the reporters there is headlined
“Eternal sunshine and confused minds in Antarctica”
All about 24 jour sunshine but you do have to laugh.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/antarctica-live/2014/jan/09/eternal-sunshine-confused-minds-antarctica
Let’s face it, they went down there to come back with all kinds of Antarctica is melting, global warming scare stories.
Well, it backfired on them spectacularly and the sordid tale will now join the long list of global warming science laughable moments. Growing by the day.
Oh how the worm Turneys.
Seeing as they were to sample ice core data- how long does it take to set up a drill rig in the Antarctic?
It is probable that the Guardian/BBC connections with this bungled escapade will circle the wagons and try to ensure that only CAGW media types are given access to these scientourists after their arrival in Hobart.
This UNSW initiative should be probed intensively by real investigative journalism – what little still exists in these PC times.
It’s time to strike while the irony is hot, so to speak!
[I’m on an iPhone]
I’ve got a problem: I clicked on the link to read the rest but when I get to the post on climate audit the post is offset to the left, obscuring half the column. The climate audit heading and page list are centred, no problem, it’s just the article text. Is there something wrong with the link?
Dishonesty from a climate scientist? Go on!
It is a failed quest. Think of MontyPython and the Holy Grail.
The questionis will this debacle inspire any of the participants to go public with the charlie foxtrot and madeness thatis obviouslyTurney’s style?
If so,this story could grow some legs, so to speak.
The following comment made by Steve M is particularly relevant and indicates that all the talk and excuses about how the turkeys got stuck in a floating ice pack of whatever origin is basically a red herring.
“Turney’s plight drew attention to the remarkable fact (not previously known to skeptic blogs) that Mawson had sailed directly into Commonwealth Bay, which was now blocked for 60 km by permanent ice, with Mawson’s entry to Commonwealth Bay even being recorded in an early movie.”
In other words the permanent ice conditions present now were not present when Mawson entered the Bay. That is, ice conditions in the Antarctic are indeed at record levels and have not been influenced by “global warming”, quite the contrary – full stop.
juan slayton says:
January 15, 2014 at 2:38 pm
Give Nancy a “Well Done. “ConPhesser” just keeps on giving.
Scute: you think YOU have a problem! I clicked on the McIntyre’s site and now have red wine spewed all over my computer screen!!!!
Spirit of Mawson: 1 tall glass of crushed ice, 1 empty bottle of booze.
(May Day, May Day, The bar has run dry!)
Hot under the collar says:
January 15, 2014 at 1:14 pm
I fractured a rib a few days ago. It hurts a lot more after reading this. lmfao.