From the “we’ve already made up our minds, these hearings are simply for show” department.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (excerpt from the PDF report)
Climate change is upon us, and almost every facet of California’s natural and built environment is being affected. Increasing global temperatures are causing significant effects at global, regional, and local scales. In the past century, average global temperature has increased by about 0.8°C (1.4°F), and average global sea level has increased by 17 to 21 centimeters (7 to 8 inches) (IPCC, 2013). Sea level at the San Francisco tidal gauge has risen 20 centimeters (8 inches) over the past century, and the National Research Council projected that sea level may rise by as much as 140-165 centimeters (55-65 inches) in California by 2100 (NRC, 2012). The Coastal Commission has developed this guidance to help California’s coastal communities prepare for the effects of sea-level rise.
The economic impacts of sea-level rise in California could be severe. Many parts of the state’s $1.9 trillion economy – including coastal tourism, commercial fisheries, coastal agriculture, and ports – are at risk from sea-level rise. In addition to potential loses in revenue, the Pacific Institute estimates that $100 billion worth of property is at risk of flooding during a 100-year flood with a projected 1.4 meters of sea-level rise. This property includes seven wastewater treatment plants, commercial fishery facilities, marine terminals, Coastal Highway One, fourteen power plants, residential homes, and other important development and infrastructure (Heberger et al. 2009). Also, public beaches and recreational resources may be lost, and wetlands and other sensitive resources may disappear. These resources provide invaluable benefits to California, including recreation and tourism revenues, habitat for commercial fish species, enhanced water quality, and increased quality of life.
More here: the PDF report
DRAFT Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance
The California Coastal Commission Announces the Release of Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance for Public Review
Commission staff is now seeking input on the Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance. The Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance document provides an overview of best available science on sea-level rise for California and recommended steps for addressing sea-level rise in Coastal Commission planning and regulatory actions. Click the link for the Coastal Commission’s Public Review Announcement.
Opportunities to Learn More about the Draft Guidance Document
California Coastal Commission staff is conducting a number of outreach events designed to give an overview of the Draft Sea-Level Rise Guidance, as well as to answer questions from interested parties and members of the public. Commission staff will present the document at two Coastal Commission Hearings and will host two online webinars. Details on these events are below.
Coastal Commission Hearings
- Commission staff will present the Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance at two regularly scheduled Coastal Commission Hearings. Both hearings will also include time for public to register official verbal comments on the document. The dates of the two hearings are as follows:
- Thursday, December 12 at the Radisson Hotel Fisherman’s Wharf, 250 Beach Street, San Francisco.
- January 8-10 at the Catamaran Resort Hotel, 3999 Mission Blvd., San Diego. Check Agenda for Date.
See http://www.coastal.ca.gov/mtgcurr.html for more information on Coastal Commission Hearings
- Public Webinars
Commission staff will conduct two public webinars, each of which will include a summary of the document, descriptions of sea-level rise projections for California, and recommendations for addressing sea-level rise in Local Coastal Programs and Coastal Development Permits. Each webinar will be the same. Participants are welcome to ask questions during the webinars, but official comments are best submitted to SLRGuidanceDocument@coastal.ca.gov. (see below). The dates of the two webinars and registration details for each are below.
- Webinar #1: December 4, 10:30am – 12:00pm. To register, go to: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2883128749907020034
- A PDF of the webinar presentation and a recording of the webinar are now available.
- Webinar #2: December 17, 2:00 – 3:30pm. To register, go to: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3107175134787345922
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
- Webinar #1: December 4, 10:30am – 12:00pm. To register, go to: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2883128749907020034
- Other Opportunities
In addition, Coastal Commission staff may be available to present at other organization meetings. Please send us an email at SLRGuidanceDocument@coastal.ca.gov to arrange a meeting.
Download Document
Click the link to download the full Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance document.
To download a specific chapter, click the link below:
- INTRODUCTION
- GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR ADDRESSING SEA-LEVEL RISE
- SEA-LEVEL RISE SCIENCE
- ADDRESSING SEA-LEVEL RISE IN LOCAL COASTAL PROGRAMS
- ADDRESSING SEA-LEVEL RISE IN COASTAL DEVELOPMENT PERMITS
- ADDITIONAL RESEARCH NEEDS
- NEXT STEPS
APPENDICES (All Appendices A-F)
Appendix A. Sea-Level Rise Science and Projections for Future Change
Appendix B. Developing Local Hazard Conditions Based on Regional or Local Sea-Level Rise Using the NRC 2012 Report
Appendix C. Adaptation Measures
Appendix D. Resources for Addressing Sea-Level Rise in Local Coastal Programs
Appendix E. Examples of Sea-Level Rise Preparation from Other State Agencies
Appendix F: Coastal Act Policies Relevant to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Hazards
Submitting Comments
Please send your comments as soon as possible, and no later than 5:00 pm Friday, February 14, 2014. Comments can be submitted via email to SLRGuidanceDocument@coastal.ca.gov, by U.S. mail to the address below, or orally at Commission public hearings in November, December, 2013 and/or January 2014.
California Coastal Commission
c/o Sea-Level Rise Work Group
45 Fremont Street, Suite 2000
San Francisco, CA 94105
or send by email to SLRGuidanceDocument@coastal.ca.gov
The 90-day comment period is provided to maximize public and agency participation in the discussion and review of the Commission’s proposed Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance. We encourage broad participation in the review of the document and welcome all feedback.
Questions?
If you have questions or would like additional information on the guidance, please do not hesitate to contact Hilary Papendick at SLRGuidanceDocument@coastal.ca.gov or (415) 904-5294, or Lesley Ewing at (415) 904-5291. Thank you in advance for your review and comments.
===============================
h/t to Mosher
It used to be possible to make all sorts of climate-related bets on Intrade, when it was in operation. There are online UK betting sites, but they won’t take bets from the US. Maybe things will improve in the future.
Konrad says:
January 8, 2014 at 11:05 pm
“Climate change is upon us…”
Climate change is always upon us, whether it be icebergs of Constantinople, grapes in Scotland, ice fairs on the Thames or a dinosaur taking a comet full in the face. No news there.
DENIER!!!!!!!!!
/sarc
your are unlucky the sea is not going to rise in Australia so come on over
F. Ross says: January 8, 2014 at 10:41 pm …
I’d guess that the sea level rise has occured, and that 608 inches or so over a century would not have been noticed.
The beach can obviously raise or lower depending on local conditions. The road has no doubt been resurfaced several times. The bird refuge could have gained 6 inches in sedimentation and bird poo in a century. It probably adjusts itself to the sea level automagically.
Your example doesn’t show that the sea isn’t rising – it shows that it doesn’t matter in most circumstances.
(oops – Mods, please update preceding post from “608 inches” to “6-8 inches”, thanks).
Maybe William McClenney will go to the meeting and drop Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? and the Late Eemian aridity pulse on them.
Not to mention the other papers in his arsenal and confuse the heck out of them.
Be nice to see them get tangled in trying to explain why the present warming cycle is not an end interglacial warming.
Boy, a bunch of geologists could really have some fun at this meeting with all the papers that are out on the termination of the Holocene.
Obviously, sea level rise is hiding in the ocean deeps with the missing heat.
Jim Barker says: January 9, 2014 at 3:06 am
Obviously, sea level rise is hiding in the ocean deeps with the missing heat.
+0.3 mm/yr of it is. That’s the GIA adjustment to compensate for the sea bottom getting deeper. The sea level isn’t really going up that much more, but if the bottom weren’t getting deeper, it would be, so we add that much to what is really happening so we get a fuller picture of what would have been happening otherwise.. Makes sense, doesn’t it? Of course.
At San Francisco, NOAA reports change at .66 feet per hundred years:
http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=9414290
Meanwhile, right across the bay at Alameda, NOAA reports change at .27 feet per hundred years:
http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=9414750
Clearly, the land is rising and falling locally. Unless they can quantify and predict this, it is pointless to pretend to plan for future (relative) water levels.
Alternate Title for their request: Bankrupt State seeks more ways to waste money.
Hmmm, I smell a dirty stinking gleick.
Santa Baby says: @ur momisugly January 8, 2014 at 11:23 pm
… Basically what they do first is to destroy private property value and then they just take it?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes.
Here is an example of how it is done:
June 2011: L.A. County’s Private Property War
As you read the article notice two points.
#1. The area is the middle of the Southern California high desert, Antelope Valley
#2. “…the authorities eventually would enact some of the most powerful rules imaginable against rural residents: the order to bring the home up to current codes or dismantle the 26-year-old cabin, leaving only bare ground.”
So why Antelope Valley?
January 2013: Warren Buffet Buys Antelope Valley Solar Projects for $2.5 Billion
The [self-snip] sons of syphilitic camels were not only not willing to pay these people for their homes but made them destroy and dismantle them at THEIR COST!
Anyone who thinks these government ‘Socialists’ have the best interests of the people at heart have their heads wedged.
California Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi’s brother-in-law is given $737m of taxpayers’ money to build giant solar power plant in middle of the desert
Heck the project is not even in California, it is in Nevada.
They really should be preparing for sharknadoes, which “could” happen. After all, the economic consequences of those would be severe as well. Think of the children. While they are at it, what about preparing for possible invasion by aliens from outer space? Indeed, with so many bogey men to “prepare” for, it hardly seems wise to simply settle on SLR.
And add Crescent City CA where for the last 80 years sea level has fallen at the rate of -.21 ft per century. But why muck up the narrative.
http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=9419750
It is like that crappy “Day After Tomorrow” movie has become the guiding light for policymakers. From polar vortex to a might slr, policy makers are making a parody out of a fantasy.
Yet sea level continues to rise at 1-3mm/yr as it had likely done for centuries with no indication of accelerated rates. Prepare for that fools!
Why doesn’t someone really scare these people and show them how the California coast (Pacific plate) is being subducted into the Mariana Trough and that the Pacific Plate is the fastest moving plate on earth.
California is at the edge of the North American Plate/ Pacific Plate where they are moving past each other. But one can always tell them the San Andreas Fault is the edge of the North American Plate and California is going to get sucked into the interior of the earth.
Jean Parisot says:
January 8, 2014 at 10:32 pm
Panic is clearly in order, all concerned should move to Illinois tomorrow.
NO! Don’t send them here, as we already have more than enough loons to go around.
And from a science perspective, why Illinois? The average elevation here is only 600ft above MSL with a minimum elevation of 279, and a maximum elevation of 1,235 ft. At that rate, California style sea level rise will inundate Illinois in just 4,430 years !!! I hope they put all of the doors back on the service tunnels under The Loop by then. I think I will by stock in Dayton Bag & Burlap, as there is going to be a rush on sandbags. (^_^)
Researchers at Southern Cal recently published a “study” of the potential impact of up to 66 inches of sea level rise on future storm damage events in the LA area in the 21st century as part of a “science-based” adaptation plan. As usual, science plays little role in establishing the basis for the projected sea level rise, which is “based on numeric climate models developed for the IPCC”.
http://www.usc.edu/org/seagrant/research/sea_level_rise_vulnerability.html
The San Francisco Tide gauge is now co-located with a GPS station.
GPS indicates the actual tide gauge station is sinking at 1.12 mms/year. Tide Gauge indicates sea level is rising at 1.68 mms/year. Actual sea level rise 0.56 mms/year.
Los Angeles GPS/Tide Gauge station sinking at 0.68 mms/year, Tide Gauge sea level rising at 1.27 mms/year. Actual sea level rise 0.59 mms/ year.
San Diego – two co-located stations. One has net sea level rise at 0.46 mm/year; the other has net sea level decline of -1.12 mms/ year.
Bookmark the Sonel site which is now the goto place for sea level and GPS montoring.
http://www.sonel.org/
OMG this is so ludicrous, I spent my vacation this year in SF and visited the Monterey Bay Aquarium, because I’m interested in all this Climate Change stuff my son and I paid particular attention to tidal gauge info. We also paid attention to the historical photos.
Alcatraz, the golden gate, fisherman’s wharf are NOT being flooded. Pictures of the construction of the Golden Gate and the design etc are the SAME!!! What an utter load of crap. Love how they convert to cm when convenient to get 2.54 times the reaction when posting numbers. Amazed they did not use mm. In this gallery they had a full year of tidal templates and historical tidal books that correlate past to present.
http://www.exploratorium.edu/visit/bay-observatory-gallery/visualizing-the-bay
The fact that the entire coast of California lies on an active fault line? hmmmm the plate movement?
Notice no mention of a lack of global warming these days
Rob-the exploratorium was part of the NSF-funded constructivist science Centers for Learning and Teaching and is now committed via more federal grants to what is called Vygotskyian “informal learning.” Reality is not the focus. Politically useful perceptions are. The National Science Foundation even funds the curriculum development of what it calls Understandings of Consequence that will mesh with daily experiences to hopefully drive students believing in a need to take action for social change.
Which was actually what I came here to post about. The UK RSA in December said we are not going to debate climate change, we are moving straight to having governments mandate behavior and social change. The Garrison Institute in US with participants like Andy Rivkin from the NYT is doing the same. It is described here http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/obscuring-the-reinvention-of-all-education-around-envisaging-new-ways-of-being-in-the-world/ after the Synthesis Report for Action came out within last few days. Very alarming 20 page or so document from the Climate, Mind and Behavior Symposium.
Just a thought on this sea level stuff, does anyone have a link to a Dutch (Nederland) historical sea level data? This country is mostly under sea level and any increase would be carefully watched. Also how many rivers have tidal reversal salinity issues? I didn’t find any googling that topic. It would be a huge issue as many delta areas are used for food production.
Could this possibly mean that Leonardo DiCaprio’s going to relocate his California beachfront home to safer pastures such as Indiana? Or, does it mean that to avoid any further carbon disturbances in the Universe (and thus California’s beachfront) he’ll suddenly decline to take that carbon vomitting space flight on Virgin Galactic?
Or, is this thoroughgoing bunch of nonsense a form of reverse Robin Hoodism whereby us inland suckers get to transfer our meager wealth in the direction of the elites who can actually afford the beachfront homes that sea level rise may maybe, possibly, perhaps damage 100 years hence?