Global Temperature Report: December 2013

James Abbott says:
January 3, 2014 at 4:57 pm
“Halving the CO2 concentration in the real atmosphere takes us to levels that correspond with the deepest phases of the ice ages (below 200ppm) – when global mean temperature was 4C to 7C colder than now.”
Thought I have read some rubbish in my time, but this is difficult to beat. The major ice ages were not caused because only 200 ppm of CO2 were there. Rather 200 ppm CO2 levels were low because there was little plant life and the much colder oceans contained most of the carbon.
http://www.middleschoolchemistry.com/img/content/multimedia/chapter_5/lesson_8/solubility_curve_carbon_dioxide_big.jpg
It was only during the 1850s when CO2 levels were around 280 ppm.. Global temperatures have only risen around 0.6c (HADCRUD) from this point with a increase in CO2 120 ppm. Therefore you believe with an increase in CO2 80 ppm that this caused solely a rise in temperature between 3.4c and 6.4c. Should analyse and research made up rubbish like this and think for yourself before committing a opinion..

In reply to:
Gareth Phillips says:
January 3, 2014 at 12:37 pm
The point is Richard, the trend remains upwards.It may be a small amount, but it is still rising, not falling or staying still. Is there any objective evidence that we are at a peak and the trend will reverse?
William: There is recent observational evidence that is anomalous (cannot be explained by the current mechanisms, that points towards a missing mechanism) that supports the assertion that there will be imminent significant global cooling. All observed changes- recent and past – happened for a physical reasons and require a physical explanation. The pattern of warming observed in the last 40 years, primary high latitudinal warming with almost no warming in the tropical regions does not match the signature of warming if CO2 was the cause of the warming. As CO2 is more or less evenly distributed in the atmosphere and the warming due to the increase in CO2 is proportional to the amount of long wave radiation that is emitted at the region of the planet before the increase in CO2, the most amount of warming due to the CO2 increase should have occurred in the tropical region of the planet. That is not what is observed. The media and the warmist scientists have called the high latitude warming ‘polar amplification’, canary warning of the future, and so on, which hides the fact that is almost no warming in the tropical region and the general circulation models do not predict very. very, high amounts of high latitude warming. i.e. An anomaly indicates there are one or more fundamental error in a hypothesis. The normal process in science if the objective is to solve the problem is to discuss the anomaly which requires anomalies to be called anomalies rather than ‘polar amplification’ which is ridiculous.
The pattern of warming that was observed in the last 15 years (high latitude warming, cooling of the Antarctic ice sheet, see Bob Tisdale’s graph) is the same pattern of warming that is observed in the past and that is followed by a cooling cycle. http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/figure-72.png
That cyclic warming and cooling is called a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and has a pseudo period of 500 years and 1500 years between cycle sets. The Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle correlates with solar magnetic cycle changes. Recent high resolution Antarctic peninsula core data has found 340 cycles in the last 240,000 years in the Southern hemisphere with a time between events of 500 years and 1500 years. That is astonishing as it unequivocally shows that the forcing must be external (the sun) as there is no internal mechanism (earth based mechanism) that is capable of affecting both hemispheres simultaneously and that is periodic. Internal earth processes are chaotic and would not repeat.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/davis-and-taylor-wuwt-submission.pdf
Davis and Taylor: “Does the current global warming signal reflect a natural cycle”
“…We found 342 natural warming events (NWEs) corresponding to this definition, distributed over the past 250,000 years …. …. The 342 NWEs contained in the Vostok ice core record are divided into low-rate warming events (LRWEs; < 0.74oC/century) and high rate warming events (HRWEs; ≥ 0.74oC /century) (Figure). … ….The current global warming signal is therefore the slowest and among the smallest in comparison with all HRWEs in the Vostok record, although the current warming signal could in the coming decades yet reach the level of past HRWEs for some parameters. The figure shows the most recent 16 HRWEs in the Vostok ice core data during the Holocene, interspersed with a number of LRWEs. …. ….We were delighted to see the paper published in Nature magazine online (August 22, 2012 issue) reporting past climate warming events in the Antarctic similar in amplitude and warming rate to the present global warming signal. The paper, entitled "Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice – shelf history" and authored by Robert Mulvaney and colleagues of the British Antarctic Survey ( Nature , 2012, doi:10.1038/nature11391),reports two recent natural warming cycles, one around 1500 AD and another around 400 AD, measured from isotope (deuterium) concentrations in ice cores bored adjacent to recent breaks in the ice shelf in northeast Antarctica. ….”
It is known that solar magnetic cycle changes correlate with the past warming and cooling cycles. As the sun was at its highest solar magnetic cycle activity state in 11,000 years in the latter half of the 20th century and all of the past Dansgaard-Oeschger warming periods correlate with high active solar magnetic cycles, it is a no brainer to consider a case where the sun caused the warming. As all of the past Dansgaard-Oeschger warming cycles where immediately followed by a cooling cycle which correlate with a Maunder like minimum (the cycle planetary cooling events come in small, medium, and super large which if we take away a temperature change amplifying earth – multiple recent observations and analysis supports the assertion that the earth resists rather than amplifies forcing changes – lead to the conclusion that the sun is capable of a change to a state that can physically cause and does cause very significant and rapid cooling of the planet. Solar cycle 24 is the most rapid slowdown in solar magnetic cycle in 8000 years. There is now record sea in the Antarctic for every month of the year (high Antarctic sea ice for ever month of the year is not observed in the last 40 years) and there has been the fastest recovery of sea ice in the Arctic on record.
The observational fact that the Antarctic ice sheet has started to warm and that there is record Antarctic sea ice, indicates the polar see-saw has reversed. During the warming phase of a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle the Antarctic ice sheet cools slightly and the Greenland ice sheet and the high latitude Northern and Southern Hemisphere warm significantly.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
The following is an explanation of why that is true and a high level overview of the mechanisms. The cooling and warming is caused by either an increase or decrease of low level regional cloud cover by mechanisms that are directly and indirectly forced by changes of the solar magnetic cycle. A decrease in high latitude low level clouds causes an increase in high latitude temperatures in all high latitude regions except over the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet due to a very strong and persistent polar vortex is isolated from the Southern hemisphere, which reduces the amount of heat transfer from and to the Antarctic ice sheet. In the Antarctic the continuous high velocity winds breaks down the snow crystals on the ice sheet surface to form a shiny ice like surface on the ice sheet that has an albedo that is slightly greater than clouds. Low clouds warm due to an increase in water vapour in the atmosphere and cool due to high solar radiation reflected. The net effect on surface temperature for a reduction in low level cloud due to the very high albedo of the Antarctic ice sheet (greater than a low level cloud) is to cool over the Antarctic ice sheet and to warm in the other high latitude regions of the planet. A reduction in high latitude cloud cover explains the warming in the last 70 years and the slight cooling of the Antarctic ice sheet. An observation to support the assertion that the clouds caused that pattern of warming would be a reversal of the affected: cooling of both poles (excluding the Antarctic Ice sheet) and slight cooling of the Antarctic ice sheet in response the significant increase in GCR due to the abrupt slowdown in the solar magnetic cycle. (i.e. The CO2 mechanism is not reversal. If there is significant cooling that indicates something else caused the warming in the last 70 years and supports the assertion that the sun was the cause.)
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612145v1
The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays
Borehole temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the past 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa (Fig. 1) [13, 14]. North-south oscillations of greater amplitude associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events are evident in oxygenisotope data from the Wurm-Wisconsin glaciation[15]. The phenomenon has been called the polar see-saw[15, 16], but that implies a north-south symmetry that is absent. Greenland is better coupled to global temperatures than Antarctica is, and the fulcrum of the temperature swings is near the Antarctic Circle. A more apt term for the effect is the Antarctic climate anomaly.

So….temperatures have been declining since 1998. What’s the fuss?

Cental Ontario, Canada last summer experienced a non-summer. It snowed on the 24th of May. We had one hot week in July then it cooled so much that I had to turn my heat back on until the last week of August when we had a warm week. Corn would not mature because it was so cold. It frosted the first week of Sept. This was the 4th warmest summer? I had my comforter on all summer except for 5 nights. I guess we should stop using global temperatures and use regional temperatures. I feel badly for Canadians now, minus 30 or so across Canada and just about every province is having rolling blackouts. Why? Because they believed in green energy and there is no wind or the turbines are frozen.

Joe says:
January 3, 2014 at 7:54 pm

“Please, James. You confuse the IPCC’s narrative with real science. Maybe the IPCC tried to be scientific in AR-1, but like Snow White, they drifted.”

Dbstealey, who exactly are you? What have you published? Why should your opinion have more weight than that of the many actual scientists that contributed to the IPCC?

Read the WUWT archives, or the NIPCC report, and you’ll learn.