Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
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“I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO ”
So tomorrows MSM headline:
“Big Business in US impedes Antarctic Rescue”
Aurora Australis is sending weather reports
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=VNAA#at_pco=tcb-1.0&at_tot=10&at_ab=-&at_pos=1
Ironically, Akademik Sholansky is _not_ sending weather reports – though it could – it’s
sending occassional position reports.
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=UBNF
Weather Buoy 73634 is nearby and sending weather reports.
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=73634
“Didn’t they have lampposts in Port Stanley then ?”
Do they have any now?
@ur momisugly Ben
“please remind John Coleman to say Antarctic. In his fine report, at times he said Arctic instead.”
The announcer at the beginning of the clip says that the ship is in “Annaddika”. Can’t find that place in my Atlas.
I thought she was having a problem with ‘t’s , and Al Gore, for all his faults, definitely said 2030, for the Arctic Ice to be gone, in the short clip of him referred to by John Coleman in the video and not 2013 as heard by John
Just think of the carbon footprint this is causing
They owe you an acknowledgement. Don’t hold your breath.
The incompetence of people who ought know better always astounds me. Mawson must be turning in his grave at these people using his name for their socialist propaganda. The British journalist’s webcam journal entry yesterday (“I miss banana milkshakes and soy lattes, I stubbed my toe, the bed is hard, and I want my mummy and I’m gonna cry…”) shows this mob up for what they really are. Incompetent, lazy, unprepared, hypocritical losers.
SAB says:
January 1, 2014 at 3:11 pm
“These people and others like them are not demonstrating their lack of integrity – on the contrary, they will increasingly be fighting to maintain the integrity of a system of thought which is unsupported by the evidence (aka ‘delusional’). The reasoning will get more and more tortuous”
I think that Turney or Flannery know full well what game they’re playing. They love the easy taxpayer money in the climate-industrial complex. Look how Turney chased his captives around pretending everything’s fine; he’s a prime manipulator. Maybe a psychopath.
Oldseadog says:
January 1, 2014 at 12:21 pm
“If I were the Captain I would refuse to be interviewed by anyone.
Editing can make anything you say mean the opposite of what you meant.
Once bitten twice shy.”
Tell any journalist the opposite of what you mean. This way you exploit his urge to twist everything into its opposite.
SAB says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:50 am
“8. A mosaic iron-curtain of news/information/knowledge domains will arise (the BBC is finding less and less that it can actually report on);”
You are spot on about that; partly because of the inbuilt bias of the BBC, partly because of the increasing censorship in the EU (for instance “hate crime laws”). The EU will drastically increase media censorship as the situation of the EU deteriorates.
@thisisgettingtiresome:
It’s ALL North Coast! (Really… calling bits of it ‘west coast’ or ‘east coast’ is what is confusing. It is all “due north” from the south pole… they really ought to be saying ‘at longitude [foo]’…)
@Anthony and Joe and Bastardi and John and… :
Congratulations on a rapid and useful professional prediction. It will be interesting to see how close the actual weather comes. It’s also interesting to think of folks on various rescue vessels making decisions on what to do based in part on your forecasts. I can see the Captain thinking things like “7 days, eh? Helicopter out the PITA scientists then, and I’ll be free of the ice in a week or two as the wind shifts. Crew vodka enough for 2 weeks, so we’re OK.” 😉
@Grammar police:
Languages are living things. We no longer use ‘thy’ and ‘thine’ nor really ‘whom’ much at all. (I do, as Mum was from England and I grew up on the KJV) Several other antiquated forms leave. Several new forms enter. Regionalisms develop, don’t y’all know? So while some standardization is of value, so is spontaneous evolution and growth. Lighten up a little and enjoy the richness. It’s the cat’s meow… 😉
12.30pm AEDT: 2nd January 2014
Rescue operations delayed by ice conditions:
It is now likely the rescue will not go ahead today. AMSA understands that current sea ice condition s prevent the barge from Aurora Australis from reaching the Chinese vessel Xue Long (Snow Dragon) and a rescue may not be possible today. The Xue Long’s helicopter is unable to land on the Aurora Australis due to load rating restrictions. It is not safe to land the helicopter next to Aurora Australis at this time.
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/02012014AkademikShokalskiyUpdate10_Media_Release.pdf
In reviewing unconventional ice breaking techniques (mainly thin, flat river ice), including compressed gas canisters, I wonder why high volume low pressure air (about 10psi) pumped under the ice could not serve to break ice around the ship. –AGF
agfosterjr,
I think that would be a good idea… except that as soon as the ice was broken, the pressure would be released.
Yesterday I tried to comment, but there was some problem.
Following the links in the story above, I noticed that the Polar Star has an
amateur radio station on board. Does anybody have DX contact information
for the Polar Star? I would like to get them on the radio and get some first-hand
info.
An-thony: I am SO pleased that this will bring you GREAT and well-deserved press. I am so proud of what you’re doing. You are indeed a beacon of sanity in the world of science and climate.
A boat filled with “expert climatologists” gets stuck in the ice. The world is pretty much at their beck in call to provide answers to questions they need since it’s a great opportunity for positive media attention. However, their best chance at getting climate/weather information is to go to the most known critic of the so called consensus of experts – becase UHM… they know he knows Watts Up with That!!! What delicious IRONY.
I hope this brings you into the limelight…
Mario
Spotted Reptile says:
January 1, 2014 at 2:19 pm
Lance Hilpert says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:21 am
” . . . and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.” And “I??”
C’mon Anthony, even in California it should be “and me.”
[Reply: Correct. But don’t blame Anthony: in the 1960’s I was taught in a gov’t school that “and I” was proper. ~ mod.]
———————
The correct terminology, if I remember right, would be to use ‘myself’ in place of ‘I’. So you would say ” and had sent an email to John, Dave and myself”.
Chris Turney @ProfChrisTurney 14m
Helicopter flying over to check out helipad. May be leaving in an hour! #spiritofmawson
https://twitter.com/ProfChrisTurney
Correct form is: “…and had sent an email to John, Dave, and me.”
Demonstrated by removing “John, Dave, and”, which yields:
“…and had sent an email to me.”
What you would actually say in plain English.
The Polar Star is on its way, see
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/367255000
and click on the live map for updates. Man, we really are in the 21st century…
goldminor, you are making the grammar morass even worse. The misuse of “myself” is a carbuncle on modern English expression.
As someone way above (sorry for non-attribution) said, the rules are pretty straightforward. If the reference is to the subject, “I” is correct. If the reference is to the object, it is “me.” That’s it.
The prevalence of “myself”, a word that could be deleted from the language without a ripple, seems to have something to do with the culture that puts “i in front of anything to make it look hip.
Anyway, back on topic, it seems that the partygoers will have to wait a bit longer. The weather is closing in, and the proposed helicopter rescue has been postponed.
While I sincerely hope that they all get out of there unharmed, I am yet to see even the slightest acknowledgement from any of the bubble-people of the efforts of those who have spent their holiday season trying to rescue them.
A bit of followup on the Polar Star contact. The ship’s page is at
http://www.uscg.mil/pacarea/cgcpolarstar/PolarStarNews.asp
It is suggested that it should be possible to contact the ship on the typical
14.300 (20 M) net. Do any of you mariners have common or easy access
to this radio link?
frank, why do you think that members of the public should clog up their communication channels, just because they are curious? Like “Hi, I’m Miley Cyrus, and I would really, really like to know what your favourite colour is? Because, you, know, I’m interested.”
Leave them alone. They have a job to do.
thisisgettingtiresome says:
January 1, 2014 at 3:45 pm
No Really, the ice is there because of warming.
It was all explained 9 months ago, to the day.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21991487
(TiGT omitted the tag, of course.)
The “just-so” story at the link alleges that there is melting from the *bottom* of the ice shelves. The bottom? Where the *bleep* is the heat supposed to come from to melt the bottom of the freaking ice shelves, hundreds of feet down?
Then I read further…
“Climate scientists have been intrigued by observations that Antarctic sea ice shows a small but statistically significant expansion of about 1.9% per decade since 1985, while sea ice in the Arctic has been shrinking over past decades….
They tried to reproduce the observed changes in a computer-based climate model.”
Of course they based it on a model, can’t have pesky data getting in the way now, can we?