While we’ve known about this for quite some time at WUWT, going back to August 2013, the story is now starting to make the rounds in the MSM.
And, NASA has created a cool visualization of the event. Video follows. From the NASA video description:
This visualization shows the position of the sun’s magnetic fields from January 1997 to December 2013. The field lines swarm with activity: The magenta lines show where the sun’s overall field is negative and the green lines show where it is positive. A region with more electrons is negative, the region with less is labeled positive. Additional gray lines represent areas of local magnetic variation.
The entire sun’s magnetic polarity, flips approximately every 11 years — though sometimes it takes quite a bit longer — and defines what’s known as the solar cycle. The visualization shows how in 1997, the sun shows the positive polarity on the top, and the negative polarity on the bottom. Over the next 12 years, each set of lines is seen to creep toward the opposite pole eventually showing a complete flip. By the end of the movie, each set of lines are working their way back to show a positive polarity on the top to complete the full 22 year magnetic solar cycle.
At the height of each magnetic flip, the sun goes through periods of more solar activity, during which there are more sunspots, and more eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, or CMEs. The point in time with the most sunspots is called solar maximum.
Credit: NASA/GSFC/PFSS
The WUWT solar reference page has this revealing plot from Dr. Leif Svalgaard:
Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present
Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at sourceDiscover more from Watts Up With That?
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MA Vukcevic, your formula(s) and graphs are cool, especially the one where you demonstrated the 365 day Ap “wave”. I can see you’ve been a chart man for a long time. You remind of my university days when I and others would draw creative “charts” on a cardboard box in the apartment bathroom expressing our engineering analysis of such things as the correlation between a slacker roomie’s length of stay on the couch vs number of days the sink filled with dirty dishes, and more absurdities.
Seriously, we both know charts, graphs, and correlations don’t make anything happen themselves. All the temperature trend and other charts in the world won’t prove the warmists’ point, especially if they use those charts to model reality in ways that don’t produce consistently observable results that follow the laws of nature. Things cause things to happen, not trends or probabilities. The standard model for quantum physics, cosmology, and now climate have many difficulties in spite of the standard bearers’ strong “belief” in them; and our doubts in those models have been self-created by the model builders’ lack of workable, testable mechanical linkages – cause and effect relationships- that have predictive power.
I hope Dr. Svalgaard turns out to be right about the second peak; that would be a feather in his cap. And if he’s wrong, oh well, haven’t we all been wrong before sometime. I won’t hold it against him, nor not visit his research page, nor tell him I was “had” by him, nor call him part of a cult, even if I disagree with him or don’t understand what he says or means, or if someone else reveals a previously elusive truth he missed. We’re all trying to better understand. That’s why we’re here.
Bob Weber says:
January 1, 2014 at 8:38 am
Two good reads:
http://malagabay.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/inventions-and-deceptions-total-solar-irradiance/
Not good at all. The very premise is wrong. We also measure TSI 1,500,000 km above the Earth [at the L1 point] and the variations measured there there agree with those at 645 km.
Hmmm. Well, I’ll reread it and think it over. It’s gotta be tough getting beat up by people from Michigan. My condolences to you and all Stanford football fans over your loss to Michigan State (brother’s alma mater) in the Rose Bowl.
lsvalgaard says: January 1, 2014 at 4:37 pm
Not good at all. The very premise is wrong. We also measure TSI 1,500,000 km above the Earth [at the L1 point] and the variations measured there there agree with those at 645 km.
Bob Weber says: January 1, 2014 at 9:10 pm
Hmmm.
Hmmm.
Malagabay says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:09 am
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/tim-cullen-the-problem-with-tsi-total-solar-irradiance/
Regardless, this is still nonsense as TSI is also measured 1,500,000 km above the Earth’s atmosphere and the measurements agree with those measured at 645 km. The other problem with the link is the assumption that the Sun should have a blackbody spectrum. It simply does not.
lsvalgaard says: January 2, 2014 at 8:15 am
Regardless, this is still nonsense as TSI is also measured 1,500,000 km above the Earth’s atmosphere and the measurements agree with those measured at 645 km.
Surprising given the X-Rays generated in the geocorona by the solar wind.
The other problem with the link is the assumption that the Sun should have a blackbody spectrum. It simply does not.
The links indicate:
1) The published Solar spectrum is not a blackbody spectrum [agreed].
2) The Solar spectrum varies over time.
3) The Solar spectrum is transformed within the geocorona and atmosphere.
Bob Weber says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:19 pm
I can see you’ve been a chart man for a long time.
In my previous incarnation as an engineer analysing various electronic signals I have learned that ‘a picture is worth a thousand words’ (as some journalist said many decades ago) specially if words are not written in an impeccable (overhere queen’s / king’s) English.
Most of cycles have a secondary peak, possibly associated with asynchronicity of activity in the two hemispheres, drifting trough with a much longer period. Even if two or more peaks do not materialise, I will not ask Dr. S. to ‘apologise’.
http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/wolfmms.php
vukcevic,
Leif has a paper on his site discussing the synchronicity of activity forming a double peak in the SSN record, it’s just another coincidence that planetary orbital periodicity of basic polarities match up. 😉
“Most of cycles have a secondary peak, possibly associated with asynchronicity of activity in the two hemispheres, drifting trough with a much longer period.” SC24 bears this out IMHO.
lsvalgaard says:
December 30, 2013 at 9:06 pm
Bob Weber says:
December 30, 2013 at 8:38 pm
That raises another question: are separate measurements made for ultraviolet, visible, and infrared radiation?
Yes, but those are not added up to get TSI. TSI is measured ‘whole’.
If TSI is strictly defined as “light” (photons), then irregular solar proton and electron (particle) emissions are probably doing things that are not picked up in TSI measurements
These non-photon emissions are FAR less energetic and carry almost no energy compared to TSI itself. And the definition is not ‘strict’. TSI measures everything that falls upon the instrument, no matter what it is: photons, particles, magnetic fields, etc.
particle electric and magnetic interaction with the magnetosphere may well be that “not well understood” aspect of weather and climate. This is a contention of mine and others that I am trying to parse out. What do you think?
I think there is no strong case for any significant interaction.
—————————
So.. then solar TSI .. could be .. fluctuating more than we know .. because when solar TSI goes down .. then none solar particles increase (interplanetary, interstellar) .. being ionized and whatever by the same solar power source .. falling on to the detectors .. telling us no change in solar TSI ..
The raising or puffing up of the atmosphere (rising air) isn’t occurring like it had been. Large solar flares ie like the Carrington event or similar are said to raise the atmosphere to sometimes unbelievable proportions
Just saying..
Malagabay says:
January 2, 2014 at 10:32 am
3) The Solar spectrum is transformed within the geocorona and atmosphere.
But that has no influence on TSI measured more than a million km above the geocorona and atmosphere.
Carla says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:58 pm
So.. then solar TSI .. could be .. fluctuating more than we know
We know the fluctuations because we directly measure them.
Carla says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:58 pm
because when solar TSI goes down .. then none solar particles increase (interplanetary, interstellar) .. being ionized and whatever by the same solar power source .. falling on to the detectors .. telling us no change in solar TSI ..
More nonsense. The reason there is no change in TSI is that these other contributions are unmeasurably small.
Lief says Dec. 30, 2013 at 5:46pm “OUR data goes back to the 1830’s and the sun has been before where it is now.”….All activity(sunspots) are in the southern hemisphere , absolutely nothing happening in the north…Has this been observed since the 1830’s ? Is this the reason for lower sunspot counts , because the hemisphere’s are out of sync ? Will the southern hemisphere ‘shut down’ as the northern one has and SC24 be over with within the next year or so ? Will sunspots ‘disappear’ as they did during the last minimum and this minimum be even longer ? Can these ‘events’ influence SC25 ? Thank you , LIEF , in advance for helping me and others try to understand just what the hell is going on with our sun!!
Before anything else is said, is it possible that the impact of electrons and protons in the solar wind on TSI instruments DO NOT warm the heat-absorbing material like the photons do?
Dominic Manginell says:
January 2, 2014 at 4:36 pm
Has this been observed since the 1830′s ?
such asymmetry is quite normal. Cycle 14 is a good example as cycle 24 will soon be]. See Figure 7 of http://www.leif.org/research/ApJ88587.pdf
Is this the reason for lower sunspot counts , because the hemisphere’s are out of sync ?
No.
Will the southern hemisphere ‘shut down’ as the northern one has and SC24 be over with within the next year or so ?
No.
Will sunspots ‘disappear’ as they did during the last minimum and this minimum be even longer
Not for a while at least.
? Can these ‘events’ influence SC25 ?
The polar fields that will soon begin to build up again will determine the size of SC25.
Thank you , LIEF , in advance for helping me and others try to understand just what the hell is going on with our sun!!
The sun is behaving quite normally, in the sense that we have seen it all before.
Bob Weber says:
January 2, 2014 at 4:53 pm
Before anything else is said, is it possible that the impact of electrons and protons in the solar wind on TSI instruments DO NOT warm the heat-absorbing material like the photons do?
Particles carry kinetic energy and will deposit that energy on anything they hit. Clap your hands furiously and note that they get warmer.
Now, the solar wind wind is so tenuous that the warming is unmeasurable.
lsvalgaard says:
January 2, 2014 at 4:25 pm
Carla says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:58 pm
because when solar TSI goes down .. then none solar particles increase (interplanetary, interstellar) .. being ionized and whatever by the same solar power source .. falling on to the detectors .. telling us no change in solar TSI ..
More nonsense. The reason there is no change in TSI is that these other contributions are unmeasurably small.
——–
Charge exchange processes, are too, extremely plentiful.
And way out there to the Voyagers locations, there ‘were’ so many charges being exchanged we couldn’t see out for the brightness of it all…
Carla says:
January 2, 2014 at 5:10 pm
Charge exchange processes, are too, extremely plentiful.
And totally irrelevant, energetically.
May just be, that we are now getting a better Interstellar view of some density enhancements, that may be nearby..the view looking out might just be a little clearer now.. Better check out the interstellar cloud watchers, paging MR Seth Redfield lol
Carla says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:58 pm
So.. then solar TSI .. could be .. fluctuating more than we know
We know the fluctuations because we directly measure them.
The TSI recording device is a heat sensor, what if the irradiance striking the sensor does not change the reading but is still present, and is being swamped by the other wavelengths ?
i.e. is a heat sensor appropriate as a recording device in that location ?
Keith Minto says:
January 2, 2014 at 5:30 pm
Carla says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:58 pm
So.. then solar TSI .. could be .. fluctuating more than we know
We know the fluctuations because we directly measure them.
The TSI recording device is a heat sensor, what if the irradiance striking the sensor does not change the reading but is still present, and is being swamped by the other wavelengths ?
i.e. is a heat sensor appropriate as a recording device in that location ?
++++++++++
I do not think the TSI is measured with a heat sensor. See here:
http://www.jpss.noaa.gov/tsis.html
We used a small PV solar panel (something like 2 square inches) to measure TSI in a solar heating application. I guess that measurement is good enough to know how the sun is shining. We scaled the voltage reading from the little PV “sensor” to approximate TSI, so we could compare the effectiveness of the solar hot water to extract the solar energy. The heat energy generated was measured as a delta-t * mass flow of the circulating coolant into and out of the heat exchanger. We used 2 wire 1000 ohm RTD’s to measure temperature.
Keith Minto says:
January 2, 2014 at 5:30 pm
and is being swamped by the other wavelengths ?
The TSI instruments measure the Total Energy Output at ALL wavelengths at the same time.
Carla says:
January 2, 2014 at 5:14 pm
May just be, that we are now getting a better Interstellar view of some density enhancements, that may be nearby.
And totally irrelevant for the situation at present and in several thousand years to come.
Keith Minto says:
January 2, 2014 at 5:30 pm
——–
Sorry don’t know..
What I do know is that there has been a 40% reduction in solar outputs and we are being told based on these TSI observations that TSI doesn’t vary much???